tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-189094242024-03-19T06:35:51.433+11:00Melbourne on TransitAre you being served? Commentary on the service aspects of public transport in Melbourne, Australia. <br>Covers networks, routes, timetables, planning, co-ordination, information, marketing and more.Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.comBlogger943125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-89148880724798888412024-03-09T06:00:00.736+11:002024-03-09T13:09:45.541+11:00How healthy are our bus routes? (1000 day Bus Plan special) <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJh-4CWQhPHyLei2pZCzO98FbAIiRxV4bE2qHCQcvyAeOWSyKDB-w04SK-Eud9PKulId8R5Yvs5UBs1ClA5iUacDDGHBNDB_iyiuK_YmbXK-62KLKZuDNuWuLEzAQ_X0-wvnCM-5LvZ-cQ9SdkBXvWiel_BFoxs7pbkoqBg0qZE7PK93bvwW1H/s518/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="429" data-original-width="518" height="331" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJh-4CWQhPHyLei2pZCzO98FbAIiRxV4bE2qHCQcvyAeOWSyKDB-w04SK-Eud9PKulId8R5Yvs5UBs1ClA5iUacDDGHBNDB_iyiuK_YmbXK-62KLKZuDNuWuLEzAQ_X0-wvnCM-5LvZ-cQ9SdkBXvWiel_BFoxs7pbkoqBg0qZE7PK93bvwW1H/w400-h331/temp.png" width="400" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Today marks 1000 days since </span><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/06/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_02145429271.html" style="text-align: left;">Victoria's Bus Plan</a><span style="text-align: left;"> was launched. It ably diagnosed what was wrong with buses and outlined what improved services might look like. But it lacked specifics on what was to be done. That was meant to be covered in a later Bus Reform Improvement Plan that we all politely waited for. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">After an <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/09/timetable-tuesday-133-907-biggest.html">initially promising</a> start in 2021 and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/un-125-delivering-for-deakin-with-903.html">further wins</a> thanks to the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-victorian-state-budget-shifts-to.html">2022 state budget</a> a large scale bus network review was <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/09/un-137-bus-network-reviews-coming-to.html">announced for Melbourne's north and north-east</a> two months before the state election. <br /><br />However momentum <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/un-146-victorias-bus-plan-how-is-it.html">had waned by early 2023</a> with warnings and then the reality of a tough <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-24-state-budget-special-what-do.html">2023 state budget</a> with very little new for buses. This caused me to <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/bus-plan-turns-two-still-alive.html">query the health of the Bus Plan in June 2023</a> with a grim prognosis, even as others like <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/07/ivs-bus-reform-community-research.html">Infrastructure Victoria</a>, the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/committee-for-melbournes-course.html">Committee for Melbourne</a> and Friends of the Earth were stepping up their bus research and advocacy. <br /><br />2023's end <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/12/un-166-time-to-revive-bus-reform-five.html">saw no apparent revival</a>. It was then 931 days since the release of the Bus Plan. Not even the Bus Reform Implementation Plan had come out. So I devised an <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-2024-be-year-of-bus-reform.html">online clock</a> to see if we'd see movement within 1000 days. That raised significant interest, with '1000 days since the bus plan' quoted by campaigns and in parliament. Which is actually today. <br /><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><a class="tickcounter" data-id="333288" data-loaded="true" data-type="countup" href="https://www.tickcounter.com/countup" style="background-color: white; color: #3778cd; display: block; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; height: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-bottom: 87.95px; pointer-events: none; position: relative; text-decoration-line: none; width: 586.4px;" title="Days since Victoria's Bus Plan was launched"><iframe scrolling="no" src="https://www.tickcounter.com/widget/countup/333288" style="border-style: none; border-width: initial; height: 87.95px; inset: 0px; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; pointer-events: auto; position: absolute; width: 586.4px;" title="TickCounter countup widget"></iframe></a></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"></span></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.tickcounter.com/countup/333481/days-since-victorias-bus-plan-was-launched" style="color: #3778cd; text-decoration-line: none;"><i>link to count-up Bus Plan clock</i></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br />To mark the occasion I did a desktop health check of all 349 regular (ie non Night Network) bus routes in Melbourne. Such a check, accompanied by punctuality data, patronage data and much more, would be a necessary prelude to any implementation plan. So what you read here is just a start. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Method</span></b><br /><br />The check is crude. It's based on existing routes, not peoples needs. There are just two measures: <b>timetable</b> and <b>route</b>. Both are judged on a yes/no basis with the result added. Thus the only possible scores for a route are 0, 50 or 100% even though it's more nuanced for each route. Still, adding the results of 349 quick tests is enough to convey a fair picture of the bus network's health which is what we want today. <br /><br /><b>Timetables</b> are mainly assessed by whether they meet 2006's minimum service standards. That is 7 day service at least hourly until 9pm, with 6, 8 and 9am starts for weekdays, Saturdays and Sundays respectively. Not a high bar but it is a service standard on which significant progress was made (though not recently). <br /><br />I also compared timetables across days of the week, especially for busier or main road routes. If a major shopping centre route ran every 15-20 minutes Monday to Saturday but dropped to hourly on Sundays then I would mark it down as a major issue. As I would for a route whose frequency was irregular, was unharmonised with trains or over-serviced for its catchment. All of these would count as a major timetable issue. <br /><br />On the other hand a peak, university, industrial or limited shopper route that lacked weekend service would not be marked down given their peripheral network role. Neither did I much consider overcrowding, appropriateness of run times or punctuality (though you can check the latter <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/data-and-reporting/network-performance/monthly-performance/">here</a>). So don't be too surprised if I didn't pick up a timetable issue on routes you know there's problems with. <br /><br /><b>Routes</b> were rated on many factors including excessive indirectness (some being necessary for coverage), complex loops, deviations, weak termini and duplication with other routes. Minor problems were overlooked but your judgement may differ from mine in a particular instance. Overall I've erred on the 'soft' side; like with timetables there will be routes with issues that my desktop check still gave a 100% rating to (when 70% might be fairer). </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Still, this exercise should give an idea of whether bus reform is justified and an idea of its potential gains. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Data summary</span></b><br /><br />One third (116) of Melbourne's 349 bus routes had no major timetable or route alignment issues identified. The remaining two-thirds did. <br /><br />Of those about 40% (ie 94 or 27% of the total) had both timetable and route issues. Especially where routes can be made more direct or duplication lessened this presents an opportunity for cost-effective timetable upgrades with freed-up service kilometres. <br /><br />67 routes (or just under 1/5) had timetable issues only. Fixes could be anything from extending hours to minimum standards, adding weekend service or harmonising headways with trains for improved connectivity. While some funding is likely needed for the extra drivers and route kilometres timetable only upgrades are relatively easy with no public consultation or even extra buses needed (if done at off-peak times). Occasionally the problem is overservicing with a potential to transfer service kilometres to routes or time periods that need them more. <br /><br />72, the remaining fifth, largely need route reforms. Examples include removing a deviation, making service more direct, removing duplication or extending to a logical terminus like a nearby station or shopping centre. Cost-effective opportunities for improved service may be possible where multiple routes inefficiently overlap. <br /><br /><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3M_DNkTaZqSi6fcoVd1YSjgpXs1e1d98cVJLcesho-x04bbY_O5_-84XV8I7HsDspLyCXigeLSwGrUuSxbwg98N0zjif4s_vvFIFNTqppwdIir8_ZWPKOu2cQdyb6rV7ObBiLYPn_abrqmQ3QzWLow3St1nkV9K0zxaFpD6N1XbqUShxqzPeb/s546/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3M_DNkTaZqSi6fcoVd1YSjgpXs1e1d98cVJLcesho-x04bbY_O5_-84XV8I7HsDspLyCXigeLSwGrUuSxbwg98N0zjif4s_vvFIFNTqppwdIir8_ZWPKOu2cQdyb6rV7ObBiLYPn_abrqmQ3QzWLow3St1nkV9K0zxaFpD6N1XbqUShxqzPeb/s16000/temp.png" /></a></span></div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br />Service upgrades over time</b></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />In November 2008 I <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2008/11/meeting-our-transport-challenges-hows.html">checked the progress of the Meeting Our Transport Challenges</a> program of minimum service standards for buses released in mid-2006. There had been some Sunday service additions in 2002 but evening service to 9pm remained rare in 2006, with only 13% of routes having it. MOTC upgrades had more than tripled this to 44% of routes in less than 3 years. This growth from 40 to 137 routes means an average of <b>50 routes per year gained minimum service standards</b> during this period. For context Melbourne's metropolitan population was <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/3218.0~2007-08~Main+Features~Victoria?OpenDocument#:~:text=At%20June%202008%20there%20were,or%202.0%25%20since%20June%202007.">just under 4 million</a> in late 2008. <br /><br />Where are we over 15 years later? We now have about 1.3 million more people and 40 more bus routes (rising from 309 to 349). The proportion of that 349 meeting minimum standards (including 7 day service to 9pm) stands at 61% (ie 213 routes). Or 63% if we are generous by discounting weekday only peak and university routes that you'd never run weekends. <br /><br />The gain from 137 to 213 (ie 76 routes) represents just <b>5 routes per year gaining minimum service standards</b> between 2008 and 2024. In other words the rate that Melbourne upgraded bus service <b>slowed by about 90%</b> compared to 15 years ago.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo65N6xkeID_vnejBhFQVMBcbUX5KFO9Ge_1cpEo2Z2keGMp0HwH6llCRAUDrDGI4ebJH38mbmGhnaT54muF2uhRfbR_ZqXT_rWJ47ZM0tpKRTiFv4mOaymLjen_z0cFssQ6W6cVM3vsRTO9fCfhQ4cCkdRYAvfQw34RhpdzL2fZ60J8bE2wjb/s473/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="202" data-original-width="473" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo65N6xkeID_vnejBhFQVMBcbUX5KFO9Ge_1cpEo2Z2keGMp0HwH6llCRAUDrDGI4ebJH38mbmGhnaT54muF2uhRfbR_ZqXT_rWJ47ZM0tpKRTiFv4mOaymLjen_z0cFssQ6W6cVM3vsRTO9fCfhQ4cCkdRYAvfQw34RhpdzL2fZ60J8bE2wjb/s16000/temp.png" /></a> </div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Note: Contains only one intermediate data point. Thus the 2008 - 2024 trend will vary in rate. <br />For example there were significant improvements in 2009-2010. And others in 2013-2016. </span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>Annual scheduled service kilometres is even better in that it counts all bus service initiatives. The <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-01/state-budget-service-delivery-bp3-2015-16_0.pdf">2015-16 budget papers</a> reported that metropolitan buses had 110.8 million km per annum projected to be scheduled at the end of the 2014-2015 financial year (ie before the current government was elected). The <a href="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/budgetfiles202324.budget.vic.gov.au/2023-24+State+Budget+-+Service+Delivery.pdf">2023-24 budget papers</a> had 129.3 million km per annum as a target for that financial year. This does represent service growth in absolute terms. <br /><br />However Melbourne's population <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/206168/melbourne/population">grew even faster, by nearly a million, over that time</a> (from 4.3 to 5.2 million). That means there is less bus service per capita now than in 2014. That would put Melbourne in a <b>per capita bus service recession</b>. Similar comments likely apply for metropolitan train or tram but not V/Line whose services have grown the fastest of all modes. <br /><br />It is in this less than buoyant context that <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/parliamentary-activity/hansard/hansard-details/HANSARD-2145855009-24738#15">recent statements from the Minister for Public and Active Transport</a> with regards to her government's record on public transport service should perhaps be viewed. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcJDta4X5S5YZkyOA9Zzu-lAunFD29mlSka6yr0xQAyu-5EMHyqJrlgma5uUCdm_-Tgid9pZhlRN_TlGmFgm-VwZXPV2rE0OxxwbKAH_mL8GkIROYqPKmxfJNa_7Ie4EPvo-_4dn9BMNgYuVzgBhBA-c2Ir3KUlv8gUMOfnKs6c3KowO9ztJpO/s484/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="484" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcJDta4X5S5YZkyOA9Zzu-lAunFD29mlSka6yr0xQAyu-5EMHyqJrlgma5uUCdm_-Tgid9pZhlRN_TlGmFgm-VwZXPV2rE0OxxwbKAH_mL8GkIROYqPKmxfJNa_7Ie4EPvo-_4dn9BMNgYuVzgBhBA-c2Ir3KUlv8gUMOfnKs6c3KowO9ztJpO/s16000/temp.png" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Some more numbers</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Below is a table I've made of the raw spreadsheet data (which you can download <span style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h0sjByI0_n9FDPqtspgxSoHF0LkTqNlQ/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=109462554490451142387&rtpof=true&sd=true" style="font-weight: bold;">here</a>). I've already discussed the first data column re MOTC minimum standards compliance. N/A means routes like university shuttles that I excluded from the survey as they are not expected to run 7 days. <br /><br />There's a stack of routes that run 7 days but don't meet MOTC standards. This is mainly because they start too late or finish too early to qualify, especially on weekends. These would be very cheap and beneficial upgrades, especially where they include popular but underserved routes like the 630 on North Rd. <br /><br />While one could argue that not all quieter routes should run 7 days or MOTC hours, there's enough 'have not' routes (124) to demonstrate that a large number (at least half) should get upgrades on pretty solid patronage or social need grounds. Examples include key routes like 237, 281, 284, 404, 414, 468, 503, 506, 536, 546, 548, 549, 612, 800, 802, 804, 814, 844, 885 etc. <br /><br />The third column deals with timetable issues. Nearly half the timetables were identified as such. As noted before these might include not only non-adherence to minimum service standards but also other factors like headways unharmonised with trains or a big drop-off in weekend (especially Sunday) frequency versus other days. This (and the next) column is less objective than the first two so your judgement on this will vary from mine. This column forms half the final score. <br /><br />The last column on the routing forms the other half of the score. Again I saw serious issues in the alignment of nearly half Melbourne's bus routes. This includes cases where the route is sound but there's enough duplication with others to query the network's efficiency. <br /> </span> </div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga9w2VZIbfQRuUKJMQX054b78XzgcL_CtdYpnN_LYzY5e-tfR8dOyxO1zMmlBBOWWSIAuf3d0ZToD3_5MNbtO6dJQDCYpzfyTrjTPX9IH_w2an-x5Hw29kbOyxSXzw751vZ1kb9xLPIITS8WtITsEOBkCvXfy0qWDcZWe2cKxSiR25MMp9KYAB/s430/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="293" data-original-width="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga9w2VZIbfQRuUKJMQX054b78XzgcL_CtdYpnN_LYzY5e-tfR8dOyxO1zMmlBBOWWSIAuf3d0ZToD3_5MNbtO6dJQDCYpzfyTrjTPX9IH_w2an-x5Hw29kbOyxSXzw751vZ1kb9xLPIITS8WtITsEOBkCvXfy0qWDcZWe2cKxSiR25MMp9KYAB/s16000/temp.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><b style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><b style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">Data</span></b></div><p></p><br />The above charts and tables are based on spreadsheet data that you can download below. <br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h0sjByI0_n9FDPqtspgxSoHF0LkTqNlQ/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=109462554490451142387&rtpof=true&sd=true"><span style="font-size: large;">Melbourne Bus Route Health Check data (.xlsx)</span></a></b></div><br />This includes comments for most routes to justify their scoring. <br /><br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">This desktop review of all Melbourne's 349 regular bus routes shows a strong need for bus network reform. Most routes had issues with their timetables, alignment or both. <br /><br />In addition the data presented indicates the extent to which 7 day bus upgrades have almost stalled since the MOTC program despite our city adding 1.3 million people in the interim. We've added service but it's not been enough to keep up with population. <br /><br />A failure to add sufficient service kilometres also harms the prospects for the sort of network reform envisaged in Victoria's Bus Plan. A major lesson from Auckland's success is that <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/un-154-lessons-from-auckland-bus.html">bus network reform is harder without extra service kilometres</a> because you can't limit political risk by, for example, retaining some less direct / less frequent coverage style routes in high needs areas. <br /><br />That doesn't mean you should give up on bus service reform. To the contrary. The more you pay attention to duplicative or overserviced routes the more 'greater good' improvements you'll be able to do. I described this more in <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">Bus upgrades for a broke government</a>. And if you've got processes to make several timetable adjustments in a year (rather than it taking it several years for one) you can follow the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/07/timetable-tuesday-81-how-perth-makes_7.html">steady Perth approach</a> of eventually getting what you want (ie simpler frequent routes) with a minimum of political backlash. <br /><br />Opportunities are especially high due to Melbourne's bus reform backlog. That can be demonstrated by the continued existence of embarrassments like routes <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/02/timetable-tuesday-5-bus-route-558-most.html">558</a>, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/03/timetable-tuesday-13-deja-vu-with-566.html">566</a>, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/07/timetable-tuesday-32-route-624-via_23.html">624</a> and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/10/introducing-fix800bus-alliance.html">800</a> with severe alignment and/or timetable problems persisting for decades. Yet the record points to a reform stalemate, with the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/07/un-159-5-word-secret-to-faster-bus.html">rate of even simple timetable optimisation exercises lagging cities like Perth</a>. <br /><br />It can't all be down to money; organisation and efficiency play a part too. Not only does Perth have more effective institutional frameworks and political support for improved buses but they also <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1765962397507113312">tolerate operational inefficiency and fare revenue loss less</a>. Despite DTP having had a dedicated bus reform team there is as yet no sign of the promised Bus Reform Implementation Plan (that on March 6 was <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/parliamentary-activity/hansard/hansard-details/HANSARD-974425065-25565#1807">asked about in parliament</a>). And, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/05/timetable-tuesday-74-our-flexible-route.html">despite warnings</a>, DTP has pursued <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/12/timetable-tuesday-100-flexiride.html">failures like FlexiRide</a> that have increased rather than decreased the cost per passenger carried, especially in <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/12/un-139-testing-tarneit-north-flexiride.html">high patronage areas like Tarneit where services commonly max out</a>. <br /><br />Having now entered the Victorian Bus Plan's second thousand days, we hope that achievements in this period will greatly reverse the stagnation of its first three years and the per-capita service fall going back even further. <br /><br />With a tough state budget mooted, network and service reform is perhaps the last and so far largely untapped hope for cost-effective improvements in public transport. However for this to happen political will and delivery capacity both need to be vastly better than now. <br /><br />The ball is now in your court ministers Pearson and Williams. <br /><br /></span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-64490979584494167932024-03-05T12:51:00.008+11:002024-03-10T22:59:28.876+11:00How will the Metro Tunnel benefit your line? <p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI8G97zhT-iQx-n8m1YpoJeg-1COTUXUOWbLBUYdxSlyzwZVD27lJAwjcxz5NX9Y2d8IGzSLlyVwMpY72ApH0q2L3SV0UqDrBFLG1QyURiDq12xGoAWv9RUrHsCxj_E8fJsOD6ei5if5moT8HFwLOwBjqqvoFNuvuphw8juy7QJQqCamtSrBV8/s458/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="245" data-original-width="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI8G97zhT-iQx-n8m1YpoJeg-1COTUXUOWbLBUYdxSlyzwZVD27lJAwjcxz5NX9Y2d8IGzSLlyVwMpY72ApH0q2L3SV0UqDrBFLG1QyURiDq12xGoAWv9RUrHsCxj_E8fJsOD6ei5if5moT8HFwLOwBjqqvoFNuvuphw8juy7QJQqCamtSrBV8/s16000/temp.png" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Metro Tunnel, our most anticipated suburban rail project since the City Loop, is due to commence service next year. If amply scheduled its effect could be transformative; not just for travel on the lines linked by the tunnel, but for benefits cascaded across other lines due to freed up capacity and overdue frequency upgrades. </div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpB2_NySuRILNzIZxu_0SxUqFmMXhzphvFii5sCLJo0Sjf7D6i1mDFiWuUUutBHQ32gBhQUHrNYjLx5V-3qjQe9ex5uZsrzTS7H52xJalWYbAp_H7GS6j3MhYNLj53WRktsRNcf6NwAVlqEu9bJWztIb4-HUFTGiwmryh-xWB72jfuQ-QZFLl6/s498/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="391" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpB2_NySuRILNzIZxu_0SxUqFmMXhzphvFii5sCLJo0Sjf7D6i1mDFiWuUUutBHQ32gBhQUHrNYjLx5V-3qjQe9ex5uZsrzTS7H52xJalWYbAp_H7GS6j3MhYNLj53WRktsRNcf6NwAVlqEu9bJWztIb4-HUFTGiwmryh-xWB72jfuQ-QZFLl6/s320/temp.png" width="251" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><br />Except for assurances of 'more trains across Melbourne', the public doesn't yet know the services they will be getting. While you can appreciate sensitivities over peak service levels and stopping patterns, even broad specifications like maximum waits at various times of day have yet to be released. Sydney, in contrast, <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1761499977199890729">tends to be more open about this sort of stuff</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">The nearest we have (which may or may not reflect current thinking) is the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/11/timetable-tuesday-141-how-frequently.html">Day 1 service plan in the 2016 Business Case</a>, with the important table 2-2 reproduced below.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQcwESBuB5ijffe7On949ICTJ59wWQnJ8s8xI7946z75W0UFOJEpyZLp_BB2yKeJgnIXTOpVXcFCzCSQkH9BY0VMvH1_WT6zbxHObn_XZnSJxJSd5IFWzJ6Mj2cDHCW-YJNnmdP4ALI3g9cJhtdEdXPJgDiDsM8uht-Ii8pW-rlleNS8pHdryb/s831/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="693" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQcwESBuB5ijffe7On949ICTJ59wWQnJ8s8xI7946z75W0UFOJEpyZLp_BB2yKeJgnIXTOpVXcFCzCSQkH9BY0VMvH1_WT6zbxHObn_XZnSJxJSd5IFWzJ6Mj2cDHCW-YJNnmdP4ALI3g9cJhtdEdXPJgDiDsM8uht-Ii8pW-rlleNS8pHdryb/w534-h640/temp.png" width="534" /></a></div> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Off-peak was really good in some respects (6 trains per hour for Sandringham, Craigieburn and part of Upfield) but niggardly in others (eg 3 trains per hour service beyond West Footscray). The table doesn't list six lines (Mernda, Hurstbridge, Belgrave, Lilydale, Alamein and Glen Waverley), so presumably there was then no intent to revisit their timetables (30 or 40 min maximum waits notwithstanding). Or it assumed there'd have been faster progress on the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">2012 Network Development Plan</a> than there was. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While Melbourne doesn't have a great record of backing infrastructure with service, short-changing Sunshine, a station with comparable patronage to Dandenong, with half a service (ie 20 min gaps) seems implausible. Even for us. Also pandemic-driven working patterns have lowered the commuter peaks, especially on Mondays and Fridays. And Airport rail (aka SRL Airport for a while) was off, on, then now apparently off. Anticipation with regards to the Western Rail Plan and Geelong Fast Rail has also been on and off. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Thus the Business Case specification represents guidance from a different time. The timetable ultimately adopted may well be different to that envisaged 8 years ago. Although given that it is part of the pitch to justify public funding one would hope that any revised specification would have similar if not better distributed community benefits. I speculated on the Metro Tunnel timetable a few days ago, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-one-million-club-melbournes-busiest.html">giving three options of what frequency might be like</a> at various times of the day.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">My emphasis then was on off-peak service and maximum waits. Such improvements could have been done on most of the existing network without the Metro Tunnel. Victoria's emphasis on infrastructure before (or even without) service artificially extended waits for the latter, as opposed to delivering service when the capacity existed to do so (the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">NDP - Metropolitan Rail</a> approach). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">My emphasis today is what the Metro Tunnel enables with regards to peak service. Key benefits include (a) new rail access at Arden, Parkville and Anzac, (b) rapid transit under the Swanston St corridor that enables cascading tram upgrades, (c) improved core network robustness and (d) support for a growing CBD by adding capacity (likely the project's main justification). </div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Benefits by line</b></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Big Build website lists <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/metro-tunnel/about/overview/benefits-for-your-train-line">claimed benefits per line</a>. I will discuss peak service levels in more details here. <br /><br />As with my <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-one-million-club-melbournes-busiest.html">notional off-peak service levels</a> there will be a bit of speculation without there being published up to date service specifications to go on, though I've tried to stick to published material as much as possible. <br /><br />I will use current (2024) timetables as references rather than older ones that might have been used as references in earlier material. I think that is fair since today's timetables incorporate reforms (eg the 2021 Caulfield and cross-city changes) that get more out of our existing pre-Metro Tunnel network. <br /><br />Also, for maximum rigour (as opposed to attributing or inflating claimed benefits to bolster a case for a project) analysis of what benefits new infrastructure will provide should be based on optimally using existing infrastructure (ie a higher base) than an existing perhaps less efficient use of what we have (ie a lower more favourable base). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFyZIBPpwVb-MjpIPAdVk5W0d1b47QlenqN8SC4uxZ6k_UCBhLWwOwqvT3uajHldla-eLmJ4kCep6uBKItUfCQ_74O0d7Dli0n2TIie2CS7kDOIODdqK-AhUGGGbiiFk8DkVGVxWy-jcqJNgkfc2jNDxsQWHjqwkHKlyxCVyr9VuuGkdK9aNh6/s432/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="181" data-original-width="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFyZIBPpwVb-MjpIPAdVk5W0d1b47QlenqN8SC4uxZ6k_UCBhLWwOwqvT3uajHldla-eLmJ4kCep6uBKItUfCQ_74O0d7Dli0n2TIie2CS7kDOIODdqK-AhUGGGbiiFk8DkVGVxWy-jcqJNgkfc2jNDxsQWHjqwkHKlyxCVyr9VuuGkdK9aNh6/s16000/temp.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b style="font-size: large;">Craigieburn and Upfield</b></div></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Considered together due to their sharing of the City Loop. <br /><br />The reference to the project 'creating room for 54 000 passengers per week' for the Craigieburn line implies a focus on peak capacity. That's 10 800 per weekday which they put at 27% more capacity. This gain would come from Sunbury line trains being removed from the City Loop. <br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Upfield would gain a 71% increase in capacity, or 9 000 passengers per weekday (45 000 per week). Like with Craigieburn this gain would come Sunbury line trains being removed from the City Loop. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The current (2024) timetable records 18 Sunbury line trains arriving at Flinders St between 7:00am and 8:59am. Similar arrival numbers for Craigieburn and Upfield are 17 and 7 respectively in two hours. <br /><br />Adding 27% to Craigieburn's 17 arrivals gives 22 trains. Adding 71% to Upfield's 7 gives 12 trains. That's adding 10 arrivals in those two hours. That allows room to grow since fewer are added than the 18 Sunbury line trains removed. Totalling this gives 34 trains, or less than two minutes between trains. There are however capacity constraints elsewhere on the Upfield line as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp5A4gRFHhM">this video</a> highlights so we may not get all of the promised increase.<br /><br />Craigieburn should see an average of 5.4 minutes between trains in its busiest two hours, with the Upfield line having 10 minute headways. There will be some unevenness due to the Craigieburn line needing to slot in V/Line services and leave gaps for the Upfield services in the City Loop. But overall it should be a solid turn-up-and-go service during the peaks except (probably) for the last few stations of the Upfield line. <br /><br />Table 2-2 in the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/11/timetable-tuesday-141-how-frequently.html">2016 Business Case's service plan</a> gives higher capacity numbers. In the am peak two hours it has 28 trains for Craigieburn and 12 trains for Upfield, making a total of 40 for the 'Northern Loop'. In both cases not all trains would necessarily start at their outer termini. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">As for the people count, does one passenger count twice if they take the train home? It would seem so. As the number of people who can fit on a train is nearer to 1000 than 2000, if we're adding 10 arrivals across both lines then 10 000 makes more sense than 20-odd thousand. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFwZfAagPi8jgd4lUvqWfBRpnInZKYZfP8Z5h9FCMeyf89ycFnLwihxnGhmdotPhKiyLHELdjmw73T0gbt5FHA7Oj6bfifxur0bX5fPzBNU_X6clz2rqvUqdyAetwWZ9tuvLbokpobx2x9PCrC5ZxCLIj1UE1WvWZm9-fVUG9SfhWjHquSwb7D/s434/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="210" data-original-width="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFwZfAagPi8jgd4lUvqWfBRpnInZKYZfP8Z5h9FCMeyf89ycFnLwihxnGhmdotPhKiyLHELdjmw73T0gbt5FHA7Oj6bfifxur0bX5fPzBNU_X6clz2rqvUqdyAetwWZ9tuvLbokpobx2x9PCrC5ZxCLIj1UE1WvWZm9-fVUG9SfhWjHquSwb7D/s16000/temp.png" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><b style="font-size: large;">Sunbury and Cranbourne/Pakenham</b><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Considered together due to their connection through the Metro Tunnel. <br /><br />I mentioned before the current 18 Sunbury line trains. The Big Build website claims a rise of 60% in capacity, or 113 000 more passengers per week (22 600 per day). Such an increase could mean 29 trains, or a shade over 2 minutes between trains. But that doesn't factor in the higher capacity of the HCMTs which will increase people throughput even if the number of trains remains unchanged. However you calculate it it will be a good turn-up-and-go peak service for the whole line, even if some trips start at Watergardens. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Table 2-2 tally is 31 Metro services, including 7 for the West Footscray turnback. Presumably 6 of those 7 are reserved for extension to Melbourne Airport given <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/news/melbourne-airport-rail/connecting-victorians-to-the-world">Melbourne Airport Rail's projected 10 minute frequency</a>. Unless priorities are shuffled and Melton or Wyndham Vale electrification happens first. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Currently the peak am two hours have 25 arrivals from the Cranbourne/Pakenham direction. A 45% increase is stated for Cranbourne/Pakenham. This is 121 000 passengers per week, or 24 200 per weekday. A 45% increase on 25 arrivals could mean 11 trains added though one must note that the new HCMTs in service have already significantly increased peak capacity. <br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Table 2-2 in the Business Case service plan has 35 Metro trips and 4 V/Line trips in the am 2 hours. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuh_GQoHGSl6dKBtmJ-XXPY3IerLD61iCqwzRPbn7Sci1f6fGFuUTX3ewfsRpSeoUDthsjmN-4eNmVNMoJEi8hyza63srEAK-DdQyGSd53EiT59OXDtRwEmYhNWMavKlMPmkN6qFg4Ko7K16hzDglQqpaadiEaUBZOYHvOgTL1fMX0XwiBtdRY/s435/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="192" data-original-width="435" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuh_GQoHGSl6dKBtmJ-XXPY3IerLD61iCqwzRPbn7Sci1f6fGFuUTX3ewfsRpSeoUDthsjmN-4eNmVNMoJEi8hyza63srEAK-DdQyGSd53EiT59OXDtRwEmYhNWMavKlMPmkN6qFg4Ko7K16hzDglQqpaadiEaUBZOYHvOgTL1fMX0XwiBtdRY/s16000/temp.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Sandringham and Werribee/Williamstown</span></b></div><p style="text-align: justify;">The Sandringham line currently has 15 arrivals at Flinders St in the peak morning two hours. The Big Build website's 48% increase means 22 arrivals, or an increase of 7 trips. Either of these represents a pretty good peak service (ie every 8 vs every 5.4 minutes). This would create room for 72 000 passengers per week or 14 400 per weekday. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp5A4gRFHhM">This video</a> queries whether that 48% is correct given terminating capacity constraints at Sandringham. <br /><br />This is similar to the Business Case plan which shows 21 arrivals (excluding South Yarra turnbacks). This also shows the Sandringham line replacing Frankston as the eastern portion of the cross-city group. The scheduling and operations of this will be critical to deliver fast cross-city travel that those used to the Metro Tunnel will expect on this group too. Although the cross-city group was meant to offer this in theory, actual reliability for what should be simple fast trips like South Yarra to North Melbourne is currently poor with trains often terminating, dwelling too long, turning back or transposing at Flinders Street. <br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">There are 24 arrivals from the Werribee side in the 7 - 8:59am slot at Flinders Street. This comprises 12 of these are from Werribee, 6 from Laverton and 6 from Williamstown. In other words current frequencies are 10, 20 and 20 minutes respectively. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Business Case's 24% increase would bring that up to 30, while Table 2-2 has 36 trips in the two hours. In any event I would expect most if not all of the increase would be starters from Werribee since that contains the group's busiest stations and has the highest growth prospects. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-i3aGOuGlyJJbT4XKIWCphhxOMUnsIREpUXiSYgtatUMIeRSjbMR3_zAiVuDCTpjfbzQ7J9vgigavbHx4y-qGhR4T_CCR9MoGUbD6-x2VAHc8AW95rO-NDixD_xtnLg_NIxy9FHFU7vraoOqDzsyUKCQ2fLylq8cRML9HDXBCQkcoWWBSTig9/s428/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="104" data-original-width="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-i3aGOuGlyJJbT4XKIWCphhxOMUnsIREpUXiSYgtatUMIeRSjbMR3_zAiVuDCTpjfbzQ7J9vgigavbHx4y-qGhR4T_CCR9MoGUbD6-x2VAHc8AW95rO-NDixD_xtnLg_NIxy9FHFU7vraoOqDzsyUKCQ2fLylq8cRML9HDXBCQkcoWWBSTig9/s16000/temp.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Frankston line</span></b></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Frankston line currently has 23 arrivals in the am peak two hours at Flinders St. A significant proportion originate at Carrum. A 15% rise on that means 26 or 27 arrivals. <br /><br />The Frankston line enjoys a lot of service but loadings are less than other lines, especially post pandemic. Reasons could include factors like: a. demographics (a mix of white collar CBD workers with WFH options and local workers who largely drive is less conducive to high patronage), b. endless line shutdowns and bus replacements eroding rail as an option, c. the Mordialloc Freeway increasing driving's attractiveness, d. Often poor or unreliable feeder buses, exacerbated by b above. Frankston also typically enjoys double the frequency of lines with more favourable catchment, especially Craigieburn but also Mernda due to serving historically marginal electoral seats. <br /><br />Still this is not a reason to write off Frankston line usage post Metro Tunnel. Removing Cranbourne and Pakenham trains from South Yarra, Richmond, Parliament, Flagstaff and Southern Cross will likely mean more changing at Caulfield station to the Frankston line. <br /><br />It won't all be one way though as some Frankston passengers for Anzac, Parkville and possibly other stations may switch to ex-Dandenong trains to save about 15 minutes. Although those who value the seat they probably have will likely stay on until Flinders Street, especially given Caulfield's unfitness as an efficient high capacity interchange station. <br /><br />Sandringham passengers will likely switch to Frankston trains at South Yarra to access the City Loop. There may also be some changing to/from the Burnley group at Richmond, depending on travel directions. <br /><br />Overall these changes should mean that the Frankston line in from Caulfield has high passenger growth while its outer half grows by much less, at least while intermittent shutdowns continue. For the next few years optimising the timetable against usage might mean that more peak trains start (and finish) at locations like Mordialloc, Moorabbin or even Caulfield rather than Carrum or Frankston. The attractiveness of scheduling such a more intensive inner service could increase given that Frankston will become Melbourne's only line that gets a City Loop portal all to itself. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrfFQe8CkSsc3FOWX4qsso_tVwm5geTtTVQUJnQDAM_FdpJxNY2wMMsSgvMIa1X1k7Eeyj4dvE3PZIP7wh527FM-4rUQ4lReDeDXIptJKhed0VwaZyr5erZZkFTzcyCRXnQTNs7APQla_3QAMESfXLR1BRzNtuKKVT40jhkPEUAcGNwOhiCK1n/s641/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="641" data-original-width="597" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrfFQe8CkSsc3FOWX4qsso_tVwm5geTtTVQUJnQDAM_FdpJxNY2wMMsSgvMIa1X1k7Eeyj4dvE3PZIP7wh527FM-4rUQ4lReDeDXIptJKhed0VwaZyr5erZZkFTzcyCRXnQTNs7APQla_3QAMESfXLR1BRzNtuKKVT40jhkPEUAcGNwOhiCK1n/w373-h400/temp.png" width="373" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Mernda/Hurstbridge and Belgrave/Lilydale/Alamein/Glen Waverley lines</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">These do not gain services from the Metro Tunnel or the resultant cascading of capacity. However the <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/metro-tunnel/about/overview/benefits-for-your-train-line">project benefits page</a> cites 5 to 10 minute travel time savings for trips to new station precincts such as around Anzac and Parkville (with major health and education destinations). <br /><br />Outside that though the Metro Tunnel project's benefits for the remaining 6 out of 15 train lines are slim. Though this needn't be the case if a network rather than a project-based approach to service is taken. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">As <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-one-million-club-melbournes-busiest.html">mentioned last week</a> the Metro Tunnel risks becoming a project of division rather than (deserved) pride if it creates a two class 'haves and have nots' metropolitan rail network. In this case the haves could get all day turn-up-and-go 10 minute service while the have nots remain saddled with widespread 30 to 40 minute waits, even at busy stations like Box Hill. Especially for people changing from the Metro Tunnel to one of the less served lines the customer experience of potential unaddressed 30-40 minute waits risks lowering the entire network's standing. <br /><br />How do we overcome this without spending much? <br /><br />The answer is the selective pursuit of something <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/06/un-128-melbourne-public-transports.html">almost unspeakable in Melbourne public transport policy</a>, that is increased service frequency. Instead of something that governments only grudgingly add when overflowing train loads threaten to roast them at the ballot box, frequency needs to be reimagined as a necessary feature of a connected and more useful network. This has the potential to transform rail travel, especially if accompanied by a <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/02/timetable-tuesday-61-can-we-have.html">vastly simpler weekday timetable on the Burnley group</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">As mentioned in <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/02/tt-187-more-frequency-means-more-go.html">More Frequency More Go</a>, the cheapest and best way to do it is to start by eliminating 40 minute waits (~0.2% more trips per week needed) and then 30 minute waits (~5% more trips per week needed with more manageable smaller steps for a staged program possible). Again, as with Frankston, it may be possible to reduce implementation costs with 'swings and roundabout' changes that have some small minuses for a few stations but generate overwhelming gains for the majority. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZOCvz1Yn-WTcsJImnEPAjINEALCDlEi-yrNR-LtSlsTGWbKGaEeLZSTHHlRvU570Iig7lGeQfGdlI247PQX_B99S2CVr_mTmKA9jjTX9UoboNUdq11OU2fsIqxE_CtE_aljv8HUmK4l9y9EjaamNnFWLo_mT0DrnWPztkkysMb2rMIrLR5jCW/s759/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="759" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZOCvz1Yn-WTcsJImnEPAjINEALCDlEi-yrNR-LtSlsTGWbKGaEeLZSTHHlRvU570Iig7lGeQfGdlI247PQX_B99S2CVr_mTmKA9jjTX9UoboNUdq11OU2fsIqxE_CtE_aljv8HUmK4l9y9EjaamNnFWLo_mT0DrnWPztkkysMb2rMIrLR5jCW/w400-h231/temp.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>Together such initiatives halve maximum waits across the network from 40 to 20 minutes 7 days per week from early morning to late at night. This is a major usability gain for not much money. A further roll-out to 10 minute maximum waits would have further benefits with weekday interpeaks for Ringwood and at least shoulder peaks on lines like Mernda and Craigieburn (if not otherwise upgraded) being priorities. <p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Metro Tunnel project's benefits could be extended if its timetables, especially in the peaks are carefully examined. The aim here could be to see if there is scope to spread service hours more widely across the network, potentially almost doubling the lines that would directly benefit with more services. There may be cases were cutting out one or two peak trips and shuffling other trips may result in an almost unnoticed frequency drop. Yet shifting those service hours to off-peaks to cut maximum waits to 30 or preferably 20 minutes during a key time period would have a large and very noticeable gain. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Conclusion</b></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Metro Tunnel promises to be transformative for our train and tram networks. Key gains include new stations, reduced travel times, connectivity across a growing city and freed-up capacity with benefits extending to the metropolitan fringe. <br /><br />The main uncertainty at this stage is the service levels of the Metro Tunnel-associated timetables. Above anything else this indicates how serious Melbourne is about becoming a city with public transport useful for diverse trips. And they determine whether the Metro Tunnel delivers its full potential or not. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">For example, will the improvements be concentrated in the peak or be spread across the week as modern travel trends demand? Will it be only Metro-Tunnel related lines that gain, creating a two tier haves vs have nots network? Or will benefits be more widely distributed, with the network's 30 - 40 minute maximum waits, stubborn for decades, finally slashed? <br /><br />There's one thing for sure, we'll be in for an interesting ride as we find out. And I intend to be there for the journey. </p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-74417739389172919182024-03-03T05:40:00.003+11:002024-03-03T06:21:44.411+11:00The 'One Million Club': Melbourne's busiest suburban stations (and how the Metro Tunnel could benefit them) <p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS5aAmahSdekuzBeMz69TLQIuUAwOjzpO9D26iphovjzJo44AZSawUqMw5e4pSXC-mSy5kF-7yC_u9y7DDX-XUtL2i-vXyuVQJiGHwn5ydnmiGcOIfiReuaXQ3aVgD5wFzhGPFDgBP9ok1lXQziZGV_TnAODlAu0pVXHfl0JtFewHwC90SdU0v/s430/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="214" data-original-width="430" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS5aAmahSdekuzBeMz69TLQIuUAwOjzpO9D26iphovjzJo44AZSawUqMw5e4pSXC-mSy5kF-7yC_u9y7DDX-XUtL2i-vXyuVQJiGHwn5ydnmiGcOIfiReuaXQ3aVgD5wFzhGPFDgBP9ok1lXQziZGV_TnAODlAu0pVXHfl0JtFewHwC90SdU0v/w400-h199/temp.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Last year I got some annual 2022-23 station entry train patronage stats from DTP. What stuck out was a small number of high patronage stations, which I've defined as exceeding 1 million passenger entries in the year. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here they are, roughly grouped in clockwise order. The first numbers after them are million entries per year. They're followed by service levels. These are Weekday interpeak frequency/Weekend frequency/Maximum waits (all in minutes).</div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Werribee/Williamstown/Sunbury</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Footscray 4.0 <10/<10/<20</b><b><br /></b><b>Sunshine 1.6 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">20/20/40</span></b><b><br />Williams Landing 1.2 20/20/20<br />Newport 1.1 <10/10/20<br />Watergardens 1.0 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">20/20/40</span><br /></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Craigieburn/Upfield</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Essendon 1.2 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">20/20/40</span><br />Craigieburn 1.1 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">20/20/40</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Mernda/Hurstbridge</span></b><br />-<br /><br /><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Belgrave/Lilydale/Alamein/Glen Waverley</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Box Hill 1.9 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">15/10/30</span><br /></b><b>Glenferrie 1.7 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">15/10/30</span></b><b><br />Camberwell 1.6 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">15/10/30</span><br />Ringwood 1.3 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">15/10/30</span><br />Glen Waverley 1.3 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">15/20/30</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Pakenham/Dandenong/Frankston/Sandringham</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Caulfield 2.7 5/5/20</b><b><br />Dandenong 1.7 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">10/10/30</span><br />Springvale 1.2 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">10/10/30</span><br />Clayton 1.2 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">10/10/30</span><br /></b><b>Oakleigh 1.3 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">10/10/30</span></b><b><br />Huntingdale 1.1 <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">10/10/30</span><br />Frankston 1.0 10/10/20</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium; font-weight: bold;">CBD area</span><span style="background-color: white; font-size: medium;"> (largely not discussed here)</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Flinders St 18.8<br />Southern Cross 10.9<br />Melbourne Central 8.6<br />Parliament 4.7<br />Richmond 3.1<br />Flagstaff 2.8<br />South Yarra 2.8<br />North Melbourne 1.1</b><br /><br />I'd query some numbers. Some stations, like <b>Caulfield</b>, <b>Footscray </b>and <b>Newport</b>, require exiting the fare paid area to change between some platforms. That may inflate numbers. There will also be variations such as changed travel patterns when buses are replacing trains. Still it does show that some lines have more super-busy stations than others. <br /><br />The Clifton Hill group had no entries in this class, though it had a reasonable share of middling well-used stations like <b>Reservoir</b>, <b>Heidelberg</b> and more that exceeded 500 000 boardings pa. Significantly, nearly half (9/19) of the 1 million plus suburban stations will be served by the Metro Tunnel when that opens. <br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Busy stations with high maximum waits</b></span><br /><br />Stations with 30 or 40 minute maximum waits are <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">shaded</span>. 4 out of the 19 busiest suburban stations had a 40 minute maximum wait (between approx 6am and midnight, 7 days) while a further 10 had a 30 minute maximum wait. <br /><br />That makes 14 out of 19 with 30 minute or more maximum waits. This can be attributed to past resourcing decisions which placed a higher priority on boosting service on the electorally critical Frankston line over the lines to Ringwood and Dandenong which had more busier stations. <br /><br /><b>Footscray</b> and <b>Caulfield</b>, by virtue of being on multiple lines, had the shortest waits. However even here intervals are irregular as lines through them operate at frequencies unharmonised with one another (with a mix of 20, 30 and/or 40 minutes common evenings and/or Sunday mornings). 2012's <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">Network Development Plan - Metropolitan Rail</a> would have had this fixed by now if service reform (most of which didn't need to wait for the Metro Tunnel) had been accorded a higher priority. <br /><br />The silver lining is that the timetables associated with the Metro Tunnel offer a great opportunity to catch up on what has been almost a lost decade in metropolitan rail service improvement. Let's now look at some exciting service upgrades which could be ahead. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Effect of 2025 Metro Tunnel associated timetables</b></span><br /><br />Seven of the <span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">shaded low service</span> but busy stations will be served by Metro Tunnel services. These include <b>Watergardens</b>, <b>Sunshine</b>, <b>Huntingdale</b>, <b>Oakleigh</b>, <b>Clayton</b>, <b>Springvale</b> and <b>Dandenong</b>. <br /><br />If well-scheduled the 2025 Metro Tunnel timetable will cut maximum waits at these stations from their current 30 or 40 minutes. In addition two other stations (<b>Footscray</b> and <b>Caulfield</b>) that already have frequent service will gain further. As mentioned before that means that nearly half of the busiest 19 suburban stations could directly benefit from the Metro Tunnel. <br /><br />Right now we can only guess the extent of the Metro Tunnel's benefit as its timetable (or even service specification) isn't public yet. But I would expect that planning would be guided by a. <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">2012 Network Development Plan - Metropolitan Rail</a>, b. <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/11/timetable-tuesday-141-how-frequently.html">2016 Business Case</a> and c. recent rail planning practice, notably the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/01/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_8.html">2021 Caulfield and cross-city group timetable revamp</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">This has informed the hypothetical frequency plan below. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip_gVoc-j46kBePGNfWXeisDx40mWJW83HunZ1avsYZPNQr7fms1ViMlWpWhPdGARuo86Y-K9ahhpYTmS_jUDYmGhTLWA2X25eQNQEw6IaPV1N4s27LnFERJwRj7ivt-gWmiJC1VBbvfZZfK6OsrNBHLODF295dB1k-6RCYaris6H-CIcfiYYa/s842/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="842" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip_gVoc-j46kBePGNfWXeisDx40mWJW83HunZ1avsYZPNQr7fms1ViMlWpWhPdGARuo86Y-K9ahhpYTmS_jUDYmGhTLWA2X25eQNQEw6IaPV1N4s27LnFERJwRj7ivt-gWmiJC1VBbvfZZfK6OsrNBHLODF295dB1k-6RCYaris6H-CIcfiYYa/w640-h390/temp.png" width="640" /></a></div><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">(click above for better image)</span></b><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;">I would not expect much use of the bare-bones A pattern, except possibly early Sunday morning. You'd pick C if core frequency, including relieving trams to enable a reconfigured network, was a priority. B, the middle option, gives a turn-up-and-go service for medium to longish trips, while offering excellent legibility and one-seat rides.<br /><br />A and B are poor for asset utilisation given Metro Tunnel's construction cost. Still, getting something like B for most off-peak periods (including weekends and evenings) with A applying early weekend mornings would still represent a large uplift in service. Hence I will assume this is about what we get. <br /><br />With that sorted we can now discuss the other busy stations and their prospects for better service. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Essendon</b> and <b>Craigieburn</b> are the two remaining busy stations with 40 minute maximum waits not on the Metro Tunnel. The Craigieburn Line could have had boosted off-peak services (including closing the dreaded 40 min Sunday morning gaps) at any time since the line opened in 2007 but never did. However the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/11/timetable-tuesday-141-how-frequently.html">2016 Metro Tunnel business case</a> proposes a halving of Craigieburn line waits to 10 minutes day/20 minutes nights and Sunday mornings (matching the current Frankston line pattern). Hence there is the possibility (though not a certainty) of next year's Metro Tunnel associated northern group timetable erasing current 30-40 minute waits. The case for this is compelling given the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/02/un-169-maximum-waits-versus-line.html">Craigieburn line's high usage</a> and the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/02/tt-187-more-frequency-means-more-go.html">low marginal cost of halving maximum waits</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Upfield and Sandringham lines lack 1m plus stations but the Sandringham line in particular has good average usage per station with none really quiet. Like the Craigieburn line both have 40 minute maximum waits and are listed for improvements in the business case. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">The abovementioned 2016 business case limits its scope to lines that are interdependent with the Metro Tunnel. Hence Table 2-2 in it does not list service levels for the Burnley (ie Belgrave/ Lilydale/ Alamein/ Glen Waverley) or Clifton Hill (ie Mernda and Hurstbridge) group lines. Thus I assume that no improvements are planned for these timetables. To be fair there were <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/tt-183-new-hurstbridge-mernda-belgrave.html">minor amendments made last year</a> but none that made inroads into maximum waits or complex service patterns. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">This, coupled with posters like those below, may give rise to a public expectation that timetables associated with the Metro Tunnel will have wide rather than narrow benefits, both in relation to the lines served and the span of hours. <br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjgWEOsJVjEhNEmbeL-TgpH372INpCkLlSvg2GjmJkxlN5lmbDUth0ru3x_HWnZ0aqCfs6AZwASHQd7xoFhujmpcWmJXGAUt1O0Vyt_1YNmFUDvqr30CdgODzqpFMs0kbuk00ZLUed6uIo_2QIicMaNyhr57JpgcTFF2vPQYW0e2OWEBmoX4-5/s475/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="399" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjgWEOsJVjEhNEmbeL-TgpH372INpCkLlSvg2GjmJkxlN5lmbDUth0ru3x_HWnZ0aqCfs6AZwASHQd7xoFhujmpcWmJXGAUt1O0Vyt_1YNmFUDvqr30CdgODzqpFMs0kbuk00ZLUed6uIo_2QIicMaNyhr57JpgcTFF2vPQYW0e2OWEBmoX4-5/s320/temp.png" width="269" /></a></div></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br />The Burnley group is particularly relevant here because it contains five 'One Million Club' stations with 30 minute maximum waits. These are <b>Glenferrie</b>, <b>Camberwell</b>, <b>Box Hill</b>, <b>Ringwood</b> and <b>Glen Waverley</b>. Of Melbourne's train operating groups, Burnley also has the most need for a simpler greenfields timetable due to its unappetising combination of 30 minute maximum waits (including midday weekdays at outer stations) and </span><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/02/timetable-tuesday-61-can-we-have.html" style="text-align: left;">complex peak stopping patterns</a><span style="text-align: left;">. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Such a reformed schedule could apply the generally superior weekend daytime 10/20 min pattern to weekdays as well (for minimal cost) with this extended as late at night as possible. Doing both interpeak and evenings would give Belgrave, Lilydale and Ringwood service parity with Pakenham, Cranbourne and Dandenong, assuming the Reference Option (B) is chosen for Metro Tunnel services. <br /><br />If this is not done then the Metro Tunnel risks becoming a project of envy rather than pride as Ringwood passengers find waits between their 30 minute evening trips are triple those enjoyed by Dandenong passengers. Such a 3:1 service disparity is also not justified on patronage and urban development grounds given the usage of and prospects for popular stations like <b>Glenferrie</b> and <b>Box Hill </b>(including the Suburban Rail Loop). </span></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Finally there's the Clifton Hill group. No stations from it are represented in the 'One Million Club', although <b>Jolimont</b>, assisted by sports crowds, comes close at over 900 000. As mentioned before this group includes moderately busy stations, including <b>Reservoir</b>, <b>Thomastown</b>, <b>Epping</b>, <b>South Morang</b> and <b>Mernda</b> on the Mernda line plus <b>Ivanhoe</b> and <b>Heidelberg</b> on the Hurstbridge line. In addition the power of frequency to draw usage is demonstrated on the combined section of these lines with <b>Victoria Park</b>, <b>North Richmond</b>, <b>Clifton Hill</b> and of course <b>Jolimont</b> the busiest. All the listed stations had over 500 000 annual boardings in 2022-23. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Metro Tunnel should directly help cut waits at about half of Melbourne's nineteen busiest suburban railway stations with 1 million or more boardings per pear. Because waiting is such an important component of travel time, especially if changing to other services, this represents a major mobility benefit for passengers. <br /><br />Success here requires a 'good service every day' style of timetable being developed with short maximum waits over a wide span all week (even Sunday mornings) being implemented. 10 minutes would obviously be ideal but even getting to 20 minute maximum waits would be a large improvement, reversing the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/09/timetable-tuesday-97-sandringham-line.html">1978 evening cuts</a> on some lines. <br /><br />This job would be finished, and the benefits magnified, if similar principles were applied to the remaining busy suburban stations and others mostly on the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups, as is possible for low marginal cost. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The main gain here would be a spreading of project benefits to aid the whole metropolitan rail (and even tram and bus) network due to vastly improved connectivity and interchange. Only then will the city-shaping potential of the Metro Tunnel be truly unlocked. <br /><br /></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-8986471307978829362024-03-01T13:42:00.017+11:002024-03-09T16:08:38.706+11:002024's top 5 ideas for better buses in Wyndham (and beyond)<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5gAFHVBcJRhA5N8jE603JsGQXy9OV8qEtjA4BXyPijw0DyKZ371s2YpH157eVd4aWQpnCfBqN3AsT0T4LrpTIRqr5U39BoP2jhad_SqJhelLVMu1JdnxnUbI1MzsDC5D6eVqIml3eHWobeySFK9RKxrKOx-kHa1dasqL9DXRK_efJ38es5sDp/s529/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="402" data-original-width="529" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5gAFHVBcJRhA5N8jE603JsGQXy9OV8qEtjA4BXyPijw0DyKZ371s2YpH157eVd4aWQpnCfBqN3AsT0T4LrpTIRqr5U39BoP2jhad_SqJhelLVMu1JdnxnUbI1MzsDC5D6eVqIml3eHWobeySFK9RKxrKOx-kHa1dasqL9DXRK_efJ38es5sDp/s320/temp.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Friends of The Earth Sustainable Cities campaign is running a <a href="https://www.melbournefoe.org.au/community_forum_why_is_the_west_still_waiting_for_better_buses_in_2024">bus forum for the community</a> in just under two weeks. <i>Why is the West still waiting for Better Buses in 2024</i> is timely given it's <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-2024-be-year-of-bus-reform.html">992 days since Victoria's Bus Plan came out</a> (with not even the Bus Reform Implementation Plan known to be delivered yet). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The March 14 forum takes place at Williams Landing in the City of Wyndham. Speaking will be community advocates, local government people, MPs and a representative from the Minister. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To mark the event here's my five point plan on what's needed for local buses. For simplicity I've mainly stuck to Wyndham and kept to buses but an integrated approach across the west involving both buses and train services is desirable, with some ideas for other areas given later. <br /><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_rnOULysY-CKB8dDYCj3JS5unTbq4C1APtl-ZcUFty1peBsi7_B4mcctecg_EIKX0fO1BjxrrICmXEnR81fkXctpEGreFg-wzb-X6NV_l0EDG_Jj5ZISi5CuWw3DmbE0gPS3VPYRYk6ugux8lVZVjK4mqEr5lfcWLCFcnNuzgvJg8bJN78jMe/s279/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="185" data-original-width="279" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_rnOULysY-CKB8dDYCj3JS5unTbq4C1APtl-ZcUFty1peBsi7_B4mcctecg_EIKX0fO1BjxrrICmXEnR81fkXctpEGreFg-wzb-X6NV_l0EDG_Jj5ZISi5CuWw3DmbE0gPS3VPYRYk6ugux8lVZVjK4mqEr5lfcWLCFcnNuzgvJg8bJN78jMe/s1600/temp.png" width="279" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>1. New bus routes for growth area coverage</b></div></span><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Areas like Mambourin and parts of Tarneit North don't have buses. But they should. Existing Wyndham bus routes get metropolitan-beating patronage levels so there's no reason why these wouldn't be as productive. It's known that providing bus routes early in an estate's development reduces car dependence and cost of living pressures. The government needs to improve funding and processes so DTP can be more responsive as Melbourne has a problem in ensuring bus services are there when people move in, with <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/10/how-long-do-residents-in-new-estates.html">waits of up to 14 years</a>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUFDJ2J1eQPRgRoM_1i_QcLWWcWqZZmZ7W2ozdls6wopfa1baAqOpXI4fxiMkIYz6e-5myGjIidjlNvhuVpcNzTNxzTaTQcRyGOTy9XMBofqlc8mP1UiB1wec4Tg1J5thyphenhyphenx_pyehjLhhzOMZVSQjcRyKkpBDBofEygHyJSqnqhyphenhyphenQqFyDIJydv5/s287/temp2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="141" data-original-width="287" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUFDJ2J1eQPRgRoM_1i_QcLWWcWqZZmZ7W2ozdls6wopfa1baAqOpXI4fxiMkIYz6e-5myGjIidjlNvhuVpcNzTNxzTaTQcRyGOTy9XMBofqlc8mP1UiB1wec4Tg1J5thyphenhyphenx_pyehjLhhzOMZVSQjcRyKkpBDBofEygHyJSqnqhyphenhyphenQqFyDIJydv5/s1600/temp2.png" width="287" /></a></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">2. Double all day frequency on key routes </span></b><br /><br />Wyndham has amongst the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/07/most-productive-bus-routes-2022-edition.html">most productive bus routes in Melbourne</a>, thanks to a reformed and mostly direct network introduced in 2015. However many still drop to every 40 minutes off-peak and on weekends. Also all but one route finishes shortly after 9pm most nights. Boosting off-peak frequency to every 20 minutes (which meshes with trains) needs more driver hours but is otherwise economical as it makes use of the existing bus fleet. High priority routes for such improvements include 150, 152, 160, 192, 494, 495 and 497. Others like 170 and 180 are mostly every 20 minutes but need longer spans. Together these would deliver a long span, moderate frequency bus within 10 minutes walk of most Wyndham residents. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoFVfmS1kdAKg9Ms92r1KRTLIxwpPjacyKxkTyyDz8joAXuIJhY0NklIBKoElRhlaCZ6XQgoNfGLipxRIF2lcwm5DJ8GGicabmuxstza9nNIG8nr4G3XZz6F8Bk7QK3R4dQqPZQQKWXMR8tutzF3brnD_Xn_jIO8Srhxl88k1xCEzthEr9zvIC/s391/temp3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="127" data-original-width="391" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoFVfmS1kdAKg9Ms92r1KRTLIxwpPjacyKxkTyyDz8joAXuIJhY0NklIBKoElRhlaCZ6XQgoNfGLipxRIF2lcwm5DJ8GGicabmuxstza9nNIG8nr4G3XZz6F8Bk7QK3R4dQqPZQQKWXMR8tutzF3brnD_Xn_jIO8Srhxl88k1xCEzthEr9zvIC/s320/temp3.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">3. Connect people and jobs</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Laverton North is one of the biggest jobs areas in Melbourne's west. A short distance west are Truganina and Tarneit, both residential growth areas with huge workforces. No bus runs between the two, making existing public transport a multi-leg trip involving often infrequent trains and buses. Tarneit hardly existed when Laverton North's bus network was last reviewed. Hence it's time for new connective routes to jobs, most notably between Tarneit and Laverton North but also potentially involving Williams Landing, Laverton, Sunshine and/or Altona North. More on building <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/06/timetable-tuesday-120-government.html">job ready networks in the west here</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9_gqHQA-mX7SfFolxS9aa7U_moIQ4EHtcTuekuoUvo8stw_IydnSMSd7NN5exBmSoUp3MREfsKlV8HrXWdsOwgs-fR_ZGhEUY-o1VZbLy7IZc2WZcT_VqSqVonM7W1s7S2a0JgWD3cJOIG_KoKBarRWlx-FjiWmxBijzzUcaEd_0lsz_9K9XF/s1074/temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="1074" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9_gqHQA-mX7SfFolxS9aa7U_moIQ4EHtcTuekuoUvo8stw_IydnSMSd7NN5exBmSoUp3MREfsKlV8HrXWdsOwgs-fR_ZGhEUY-o1VZbLy7IZc2WZcT_VqSqVonM7W1s7S2a0JgWD3cJOIG_KoKBarRWlx-FjiWmxBijzzUcaEd_0lsz_9K9XF/w400-h135/temp.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">4. Scrap FlexiRide / replace with fixed routes</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Tarneit North FlexiRide is a dud. It is the public transport equivalent of trying to phone Centrelink, with about as much chance of success in peak times. While introduced with fanfare it is unsuited to the mass transit needs of a dense, diverse, mobile population better served with fixed routes. FlexiRide is geometrically doomed. Its main success is to <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/12/un-139-testing-tarneit-north-flexiride.html">max out with 'service unavailable' messages</a> while simultaneously carrying fewer passengers per driver hour than a regular fixed route. Hence it is best replaced by regular routes such as which succeed elsewhere in Wyndham. One of them (on Dohertys Rd) could even link to jobs in Laverton North as mentioned above. Similar comments apply to Melton's FlexiRide which also gets oversubscribed. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwcXoYp6TsnOVktUwmMnHUTWjJZVzGcO9Tf4qrvCcfWxrCG0v5t1sU0LOHhDxT3vmKNnFGBQkNdXwBEeS12AKm2E6XauTgoRdNUYWh1mVcfJlNT9MYF_vyKAtKGv39E1UGxoe2URytkbBDbvPbl-7ywxfZdyUBOZZJAqXqu49gJVsnIlKKPMYD/s321/temp5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="239" data-original-width="321" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwcXoYp6TsnOVktUwmMnHUTWjJZVzGcO9Tf4qrvCcfWxrCG0v5t1sU0LOHhDxT3vmKNnFGBQkNdXwBEeS12AKm2E6XauTgoRdNUYWh1mVcfJlNT9MYF_vyKAtKGv39E1UGxoe2URytkbBDbvPbl-7ywxfZdyUBOZZJAqXqu49gJVsnIlKKPMYD/s320/temp5.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">5. Tram-like Route 170 SuperBus between Werribee, Werribee Plaza and Tarneit running every 10 minutes</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Would run every 10 minutes 7 days per week with bus priority to ensure reliability along Derrimut Rd. Each stop would feature larger high-quality shelter, real-time information and direct pedestrian access across the road. Essentially a 'BRT light' joining key destinations in Wyndham, this would be a precursor to similar upgrades on other corridors in the area, for example Ballan Rd to Wyndham Vale (Route 190) or to Williams Landing via Sayers and/or Leakes Rd (150 or 152). <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Melbourne's west beyond Wyndham</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Top priorites here could include 1. Growth area coverage in areas like Mt Atkinson currently without service, 2. Getting popular but underserved bus routes like 423 and 424 up to 'minimum standard' operating hours (ie at least a 9pm finish) along with 7 day service on 414, 415 and 431, 3. Operating hours extensions and/or 7 day frequency boosts on key trunk routes including 406, 408, 411, 418, 420 and 460, 4. Simplification of routes to enable 10 minute frequent corridors (a) between Footscray and Highpoint, (b) along Ballarat Rd and (c) along Millers Rd, 5. Major bus network reviews in Melton townsite and Altona North/Williamstown to simplify the network, 6. Improved connections to jobs, notably in Laverton North and Fishermans Bend and 7. A Bus Rapid Transit corridor along Taylors Rd for efficient east-west transit to growth areas. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This is my top 5 for bus upgrades in the Wyndham area, along with an outline of priorities for other parts of Melbourne's west. For maximum effect they should be combined with boosted train services, notably weekends on the Geelong line. Together these initiatives would create a vastly upgraded transit network fit to connect the area's growing population to jobs and opportunities. <br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">If this, or other bus concepts, interests you, visit their website to <a href="https://www.melbournefoe.org.au/community_forum_why_is_the_west_still_waiting_for_better_buses_in_2024">register for the forum</a> - it promises to be very interesting. </p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-91122302139672488702024-02-20T09:42:00.025+11:002024-02-20T17:02:01.259+11:00TT #187: More Frequency means More Go: Attitudes to PT frequency<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcawOccoNgAU_6dVCBvfgh3brVkyR8Ts_-Hv3-INgTjQPEGBcjt7YrGRp7fV4-msP-izO98n2Jb8i1up9aQ0IKY74iVweT3jpDITnBJTstgDl547qnaqbxTgobwf4sCiFAM7TJkiNDTYoX-0_PTKRHiUF6LGNZ_jD7qDhjH9WQ8GLC7uG7JUhc/s483/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="250" data-original-width="483" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcawOccoNgAU_6dVCBvfgh3brVkyR8Ts_-Hv3-INgTjQPEGBcjt7YrGRp7fV4-msP-izO98n2Jb8i1up9aQ0IKY74iVweT3jpDITnBJTstgDl547qnaqbxTgobwf4sCiFAM7TJkiNDTYoX-0_PTKRHiUF6LGNZ_jD7qDhjH9WQ8GLC7uG7JUhc/w400-h208/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>If you're catching a plane to London or New York you're making a serious journey that is typically planned days, weeks or months in advance. Unless you're in the top 1% such a trip would be made rarely. On account of its significance, cost and rareness you're happy to rearrange your life schedule around it. Because of that it doesn't much matter much if flights are only a few times a day (or less). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There may be changes to another flight if flying to smaller airports but the wise traveller plans long enough stopovers to lessen risks of missed connections. And you'd have to hope that there is good enough land travel at the other end to your destination. If there isn't it's accepted that you'll either hire a car, get a taxi or have the people you are visiting drive an hour or two to the airport then back to their place. Similar applies for transcontinental rail trips, especially the tourist types. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Why frequency is key for metropolitan transit</span></b><br /><br />Metropolitan transit is the opposite to all the above. For a start trips are shorter, cheaper and thus more frequently made. Travel time predictability is essential as travel may be to time-sensitive jobs, school lessons or appointments. But finish times can vary so the system must also be robustly amenable to changes of plan. <br /><br />Want all the above in on a public transport network? Good frequency on as many routes as possible is key. If you don't have it then the network isn't very useful as waits can easily exceed travel times. Yesterday I devised the 'five smileys' diagram below that I think summarises this neatly. <br /></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX124U2hBkV8DpX_gVtVGaKWPF03ymQE5OtA_jwbZ1V0ZcprvfNAci88GJ-0K7msys3wUe4sGMQItM4ugosMeI4GXhBzK6pz9CMYR0hyphenhyphen3SW5-V0FVMLfybfZ3-iLDflHczi3EDtULApUpN3RGWICK3XoZZS_OahVi40MNdx3WB3D80ejIV4ZQt/s742/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="742" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX124U2hBkV8DpX_gVtVGaKWPF03ymQE5OtA_jwbZ1V0ZcprvfNAci88GJ-0K7msys3wUe4sGMQItM4ugosMeI4GXhBzK6pz9CMYR0hyphenhyphen3SW5-V0FVMLfybfZ3-iLDflHczi3EDtULApUpN3RGWICK3XoZZS_OahVi40MNdx3WB3D80ejIV4ZQt/w400-h281/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The assigned frequencies and attitudes, I think, suit Melbourne and suburbs. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Prevalence and user experiences of various service levels</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Every 40 min</span></b><br /><br />Melburnians loathe 40 minute frequencies yet they plague our bus network, including on some of our most productive routes in western and northern Melbourne. I have no doubt that 40 minute frequencies cause much of the deserved low regard that buses are held in. Key train lines to destinations like Wyndham Vale, Sunbury, Broadmeadows, Coburg, Epping and Greensborough are also only every 40 minutes, notably Sunday mornings but sometimes other times as well. The short-changing of the north is very obvious in the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/02/un-169-maximum-waits-versus-line.html">frequency map presented last week</a>. <br /><br />40 minute headways lack the 'memory timetable' that services every 60, 30, 20, 15 and 10 minutes have. Perhaps their only merit is that they harmonise with trains every 20 minutes, as typical in Melbourne's west, north and outer south-east. Hence 40 minutes is a very common off-peak frequency for bus routes, even though the patronage on some in areas like Tarneit, Point Cook and Craigieburn would easily justify a 7 day 20 minute service. <br /><br /><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Every 30 min</span></b><br /><br />30 minute frequencies are what make our SmartBuses not so smart on weekends and most of our rail network inconvenient for evening and occasionally also daytime travel. Even trams have half-hourly gaps on Sunday mornings and evenings. Like with every 40 minutes, a 30 minute wait due to a just missed connection, can double travel time for most trips. <br /><br />Still there's one thing worse than 30 minute waits and that's the abovementioned 40 minute gaps. Getting this to every 30 min is a small but worthwhile improvement. And it's super-cheap. This is because a 30 minute frequency is four trips every 2 hours versus three for a 40 minute frequency, you just need to add one return trip per two hours to boost the service. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To take a Mernda line Sunday morning example, instead of 40 minute gaps before the 10:36am arrival at Flinders St (current timetable) the 40 minute service could finish with the 8:36am arrival with the improved 30 minute service until 10:36am. That's with one extra return trip per week scheduled. <br /><br />Even better would be one additional earlier return trip to cut the earlier 70 minute gap (before 7:56am) to 40 minutes. That's a lot of value for just two extra return trains per week. Similar Sunday morning gains are possible for at least parts of the Sunbury, Upfield, Craigieburn, Hurstbridge and Sandringham lines with a combined total of 12 return trains per week. That's about 24 trips each way, or about 100 per month. For context <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/un-124-what-could-we-do-with-1-more.html">Metro runs about 64 000 train services per month</a> (November 2019 figures), meaning an <b>increase of just 0.16% in monthly services</b>. <br /><br />That's tiny in the whole scheme of things given it would get almost our whole rail network from a maximum 40 to a maximum 30 minute wait for 18 hours a day / 7 days a week. It does not speak well for the planning, leadership and internal advocacy capabilities of DTP that Secretary Paul Younis has been unable to win government support for even these minor upgrades implemented across the rail network. <br /><br /><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Every 20 min</span></b><br /> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">20 minutes is a sort of middling frequency. Its not horrid but not great either. It might be OK for non time critical trips involving no changes. But it can still greatly slow travel if making one or more connections that are not timed. Still, it is vastly better than the 30 and 40 minute headways so widespread on the network. <br /><br />I have seen 20 minutes referred to as a 'check and go' frequency - in other words you are still looking at a timetable but it does not require the sort of detailed planning that you might do for a 30, 40 or 60 minute headway. <br /><br />The roll-out of much more 20 minute service was proposed for metropolitan rail lines and bus routes in 2012's <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail)</a>. This plan wasn't much favoured by the following government. Still, Werribee, Williamstown and Frankston train lines gained maximum 20 minute waits in the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/01/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_8.html">good but undersold 2021 rail timetable change</a>. And before then <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-rise-of-20-minuter.html">quite a few bus routes gained 20 minute service</a>. <br /><br />20 minute service is not something that people are begging politicians to implement. It's less saleable than every 10 minutes in that regard. But it's also vastly cheaper to do over multiple lines if your starting point is 30 or 40 minute service. The fine print of the diagram lets you compare the relative cost of upgrading to the next higher frequency in terms of extra trains, trams (or buses) per hour. <br /><br />As noted before, a boost from 40 to 30 minute is the same as going from 3 to 4 return train trips every 2 hours. That 0.5 extra trips per extra hour of improved service. <br /><br />The next step, of going from 30 to 20 minutes maximum waits, needs an additional return train trip per hour to be added. That's a bit dearer but is still a bargain when it is recalled that most of rail's costs are fixed. Also you've shifted the whole perception of the rail network from 'at worst bad' to 'at worst neutral' by halving maximum waits from 40 to 20 minutes. <br /><br />These gains hugely aid reliability, build network robustness and cut travel time variability, especially when rail replacement buses operate. A similar 30 to 20 minute upgrade would also assist our popular SmartBus routes, which with few exceptions run their frequent service on weekdays only. <br /><br />The better you make something the more people use it. Thus upgrades to this and even higher frequencies <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/06/un-128-melbourne-public-transports.html">induce higher patronage, especially during off-peak times</a>. With rail you could get a lot more 20 minute service with a small increase in monthly service. <br /><br />To use round numbers, the Melbourne rail network averages about 2000 trips per day. A 1% increase is about 20 trips, or 10 return trips. Adding one return trip on 10 lines with 30 minute evening service would give an extra hour where services are every 20 rather than every 30 minutes. Go for a 3% increase and the maximum evening wait falls from 30 to 20 minutes until about 10pm network-wide. The point is that you can do a surprising amount with just a <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/un-124-what-could-we-do-with-1-more.html">1 to 3% increase in monthly train services</a>, with about a 5% rise needed to finish the job. <br /><br />Buses would need a bigger percentage increase as they're usually less frequent to begin with, especially on weekends. But trams would need a much smaller increase as their timetables are already every 20 minutes or better except for early and late on Sundays. <br /><br /><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Every 15 min</span></b></div><p style="text-align: justify;">15 minute frequencies are largely confined to a few lucky train lines in the east and some weekday buses (notably premium SmartBuses). Many trams have 12 or 15 minute off-peak and weekend frequencies. 15 minutes is about what many people start to consider as turn-up and go for a single trip. It's only one extra trip per hour compared to 20 minutes and two extra trips per hour compared to 30 minutes so is fairly economical. <br /><br />While an improvement on all the previously discussed frequencies, 15 minutes is still not great for trips involving a change. This is because waiting could still amount to 30 minutes of total travel time in the worst case. An unreliable 15 minute service is also poor as the cancellation of just one train opens up a half hour gap, with similar issues possible for delayed main road buses stuck in traffic. This you might have 15 minute service as a top tier service in a small to medium sized city but a large city requires something better. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: medium;">Every 10 min</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This is proper turn up and go service suitable for key suburban lines in a major city. It requires 2 extra trips per hour compared to 15 minutes and 4 extra trips per hour compared to a 30 min frequency. Thus you don't go running 10 minute service on every back street bus route. <br /><br />Still a 10 minute frequency makes the network vastly more transfer-friendly, encourages sympathetic transit-oriented land use and lifestyles and makes road time and space re-allocation (including traffic light priority and bus lanes) more justifiable. All this induces even higher patronage. And scope exists for bus network reform to deliver 10 minute frequencies on key corridors in parts of Melbourne that really need them (eg around <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/11/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">Northland</a> and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/07/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">Highpoint</a> shopping centres). <br /><br />Widespread 10 minute frequencies were a major service aim in 2012's <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail)</a>. That plan also specified it for trams and top tier bus routes in its multimode coordination framework. Reference to this framework was regrettably omitted from the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/06/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_02145429271.html">Victorian Bus Plan</a> released <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-2024-be-year-of-bus-reform.html">982 days ago today</a>. <br /><br />Nevertheless there has been some progress towards more weekday routes every 10 minutes, notably the Route 202 Melbourne University shuttle and routes 235 and 237 in Fishermans Bend (which provide a welcome precursor for a tram unlikely to be built soon). <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Other cities and expectations</span></b><br /><br />The above is a Melbourne perspective. Those from large Asian, European and even some Canadian cities expect far higher frequencies than typically run in Melbourne. A Melburnian would very happily accept a 9 minute wait for a 10pm train while a Torontonian or Vancouverite would grumble. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Even Sydney's expectations would be higher. In contrast, Brisbanites would set their sights a little lower than us, with most Canberrans, saddled with embarrassing 120 minute weekend bus headways, a lot lower. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">What do we want from our network?</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Then there are more objective measures such as what you want the network to do. If it's to provide a versatile all day service for a multitude of trip types and destinations then there is going to be more interchanging (at all hours). Passengers have a certain 'interchange time and inconvenience budget' for each trip they make. If the network imposes anything beyond that they people will either drive or not travel at all. <br /><br />Day and night high frequency is a necessary condition for the versatility the network needs to grow its role and patronage. Official understanding and responsiveness has varied over time. <br /><br />Understanding probably peaked during several decades between which the rail network was primarily regional and goods focused (late 1800s) and when it became a more extensive electrified but narrowly suburban commuter service (post 1950s). During this early to mid 20th century 'sweet spot' the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/04/timetable-tuesday-114-70-years-of-tram.html">trams</a>, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/tt-180-melbournes-forgotten-frequent.html">trains</a> and even some buses were double their current frequency, especially at night, albeit on a smaller network than now. <br /><br />Suburbanisation, electrification extensions and core area off-peak service cuts followed. Interest in frequency narrowed to become solely as a means to maximise peak capacity rather than as a benefit in itself. The peak of this narrow commuter thinking was probably the 1970s when the City Loop was under construction (for the commuters) but evening timetables were savagely cut in 1978. Not unsurprisingly public transport reached historic patronage and mode share lows around 1981 (when Melbourne was losing prestige to Sydney and jobs were suburbanising). <br /><br />Subsequently patronage recovered (albeit in a larger city) and some service frequencies were restored. Indeed day and night services on the politically marginal Frankston line are now more frequent than they've ever been. Ideally we'd have continued with NDP Metropolitan Rail frequency upgrades in tandem with bus reform that was then accelerating. Unfortunately this basically stalled with everything going on infrastructure builds instead. <br /><br />Of these the Metro Tunnel is a better project than the one-trick City Loop. Similar could be said about the Suburban Rail Loop, though one might still quibble about timing, design decisions and costs. <br /><br />The huge borrowing for these and other projects (including roads) may make it easier for government to say there's no money for service, given rising interest payments. Still, that's not what the Metro Tunnel banners say. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Let's hope they're right and its opening heralds a renewed realisation in the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/06/un-128-melbourne-public-transports.html">power of frequency</a> that we've waited too many decades for. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR6eWZmxGCyT1qbb_nEbQzfnk65MHYxC6SDXSU9qemAACg6f8o-qWLsSiHW4ebMeiYcFXQB5ODC_6rdJXs-sm5gDpNETbspeXwtIuy0jfGbAmE5XxBF_mf0ZV09gW6KISW1B8YUtJhkhljLqFDEB_XCuEVxJXmeByWJuiA4_P5QlbOzC8HYMaT/s779/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="779" data-original-width="606" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR6eWZmxGCyT1qbb_nEbQzfnk65MHYxC6SDXSU9qemAACg6f8o-qWLsSiHW4ebMeiYcFXQB5ODC_6rdJXs-sm5gDpNETbspeXwtIuy0jfGbAmE5XxBF_mf0ZV09gW6KISW1B8YUtJhkhljLqFDEB_XCuEVxJXmeByWJuiA4_P5QlbOzC8HYMaT/s320/temp.PNG" width="249" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/11/timetable-tuesday-50-index-to-them-all.html">Index to Timetable Tuesday items here</a></b></span></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-11919431126008831982024-02-18T08:42:00.045+11:002024-02-18T16:49:22.554+11:00Big south-east train service upgrades turn 28<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6E7vi3HffS2zKxkESvHjfjpGBq5_ROeyiiRfU1lpi7yo1K0TIIWULBLq9L-CDz4f6rXxXlREPgKB5o0Y-MbCI6eJsTU0vzODqIQLp-U5Perj4XQaN1EBt9AEcvqaGVij3R7s8nTdYLvjz5_6KkK5iO_Grau77IDT1G4-QcB5OSWtTi2C2zk4H/s421/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6E7vi3HffS2zKxkESvHjfjpGBq5_ROeyiiRfU1lpi7yo1K0TIIWULBLq9L-CDz4f6rXxXlREPgKB5o0Y-MbCI6eJsTU0vzODqIQLp-U5Perj4XQaN1EBt9AEcvqaGVij3R7s8nTdYLvjz5_6KkK5iO_Grau77IDT1G4-QcB5OSWtTi2C2zk4H/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Today, 18 February, is a historic day in the history of Melbourne's train services. Old timetables were cast aside in favour of more frequent interpeak service across south-east Melbourne. </div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">More specifically, on this day in 1996:</p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">* Frankston and Dandenong weekday trains improved from every 20 to 15 min (matching Ringwood and Glen Waverley), delivering what more would treat as a turn-up-and-go service. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">* Pakenham and Cranbourne line trains beyond Dandenong increased from every 40 to 30 min interpeak and from every 80 to every 40 min on Sundays. </div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">* Daytime Sunday services to Alamein, Belgrave, Lilydale, Dandenong and Frankston increased from every 40 to every 30 min. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />* Alamein line trains increased from every 60 to every 30 min Monday - Saturday night</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />This upgrade package constituted the most decisive increase in metropolitan train services for many years, if not decades. They certainly trump the early 1990s Sandringham line boost (also every 20 to every 15 min off-peak) and the peak gains the Frankston line got when its third track was built. <br /><br />It happened just before the March 1996 state election (at which the Kennett government was returned). A 15 minute frequency also raised more of the Melbourne's rail network to the service levels seen on Perth's newly electrified system which adopted 15 minutes as a base frequency (initially weekday, eventually 7 days). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Rail frequencies set a sort of base service level for buses, especially in the middle suburbs. Before the rail frequencies were improved, the main bus routes ran every 20 minutes. The upgrade to trains every 15 minutes did not result in immediate gains for buses. However later some of the major routes in the south-east became SmartBuses (eg 703, 888/889, 700 and then later 900, 901, 902 and 903) which featured 15 minute weekday interpeak frequencies to retain a degree of headway harmonisation with trains. And even where buses were not upgraded, the boost in train services to every 15 minutes reduced average waits for those changing from buses. <br /><br />What about the West and North? They do not celebrate today. The Kennett government, especially in its first term, was south and east centric, reflecting its voter base. While the latter gained from the abovementioned service upgrades, they started a geographic inequality in train frequencies that has only widened since. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Leaving aside the politics (with the north and west rusted on Labor) it may have been possible to justify the priority treatment for the east and south-east on patronage grounds. This is because Melbourne was more lopsided then with the eastern lines being busier. That's since changed with any previously valid usage excuses for the north and west not to get more train service evaporating. <br /><br />There ought to have been a subsequent service catch-up to give the west equality with the east (like implementation of <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">2012's Network Development Plan - Metropolitan Rail</a> would have done). However there hasn't been with the Frankston line 'haves' now enjoying half the waits of the Craigieburn and Mernda line 'have nots' at most times. Hence the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2024/02/un-169-maximum-waits-versus-line.html">distribution of rail frequency today increasingly reflects 'safe seat' politics more than objective measures like patronage or social needs</a>. <br /><br />Returning to the 1990s, the other major Kennett era service boost happened before the 1999 state election in which metropolitan train and tram lines had Sunday services boosted between about 10am and 7pm to match their more frequent Saturday timetables. This was a major gain with benefits spread across Melbourne (unlike the 1996 upgrades). <br /><br />Sunday evening services remained at every 40 minutes until a couple of years later when the Bayside portion got improved to every 30 min with the Hillside portion (under Connex) following suit a little later. Pre-10am Sunday morning services levels remain unchanged to this day except for the addition of earlier trips under Night Network and Werribee, Williamstown and Frankston upgrades in early 2021. <br /><br />These 1996 and 1999 train service increases are historically important as they represent a decisive turnaround from the cuts during the 1950s, 60s and 70s. Sure these might have cut costs but they also reduced patronage and contributed to increased car traffic (which carries its own cost in road construction and maintenance). Hence cutting service is counterproductive and doesn't necessarily save much money.<br /><br />Better frequency on the other hand is beneficial as it reduces waits, making train travel more useful for diverse trips throughout the day, not just during the commuter peaks. And of the times where you could boost service, off-peak frequency is most cost-effective as the marginal cost of increasing it is low and it optimises fleet usage. Interestingly this was more realised and acted on in the late 1990s than in the 2020s (so far). <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">The future</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The current state government has found it easier to borrow tens of billions for new infrastructure than to find more modest (but recurring) amounts to make service more frequent and thus useful. Over the last decade or so this has been notable for all modes of transport except V/Line trains (which have enjoyed both large infrastructure <b>and</b> service gains). <br /><br />Hence it's a common sight in the suburbs for there to be shiny new stations served by trains as far apart as 30 or even 40 minutes at important times people travel. Melbourne's 'infrastructure first' approach is quite different to 'service first' planning practice elsewhere, such as Sydney, that have done much to reduce maximum waits to much lower amounts (like 15 or even 10 minutes) over a much wider span of the day (while simultaneously pursuing a large infrastructure program). <br /><br />Will Melbourne's approach change any time soon? Will service finally get its day in the sun? Large Metro Tunnel banners raise hopes though without specifics it remains to be seen how widely spread the benefits will be. <br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO7tO6judm9AMwbaBteV6O5nOPlLOtP-1fp_MXFgQGriSdkTd9rOlhWoEuyXnF777za8M8TTw-2rYBmgfLfNjZEOVUK-6IrBJjRKvCjcZz0pq-PSHWhNSl8davkupZ4toWzNvXht69ceZdlkOZ0Uf2X27gLngu_6tRhO-lfJ2AIH34sUvHMfkG/s451/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="451" data-original-width="345" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO7tO6judm9AMwbaBteV6O5nOPlLOtP-1fp_MXFgQGriSdkTd9rOlhWoEuyXnF777za8M8TTw-2rYBmgfLfNjZEOVUK-6IrBJjRKvCjcZz0pq-PSHWhNSl8davkupZ4toWzNvXht69ceZdlkOZ0Uf2X27gLngu_6tRhO-lfJ2AIH34sUvHMfkG/w490-h640/temp.PNG" width="490" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Further reading</span></b></div><p></p><p><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2011/05/melbourne-interpeak-train-service.html">https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2011/05/melbourne-interpeak-train-service.html</a></p><p><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2011/05/melbourne-evening-train-service-levels.html">https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2011/05/melbourne-evening-train-service-levels.html</a></p><p><a href="https://www.ptua.org.au/files/2008/2023/12/PTUA-News-Volume-23-No.-2-June-1999.pdf">https://www.ptua.org.au/files/2008/2023/12/PTUA-News-Volume-23-No.-2-June-1999.pdf</a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-89270844942690833002024-02-15T06:00:00.007+11:002024-02-15T11:00:07.223+11:00UN 169: Do busy lines get the best service?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRncS-7O9Er7lVE0E2e_eYNWQFu9wA-Xz1Ved5rXoKFbDVGQHUZx3ymnfv-iH90_S9Bj361cA825BxCe1slg6pu8e8UT1m2YuYdt_oDykCC4noZrRM67vpgsjCak0azoqVZRLwDIjLzf-We7z6tXTxOJ2MS7jGuf2-1Ft_RWc8_-C9CVXopkw0/s711/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="711" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRncS-7O9Er7lVE0E2e_eYNWQFu9wA-Xz1Ved5rXoKFbDVGQHUZx3ymnfv-iH90_S9Bj361cA825BxCe1slg6pu8e8UT1m2YuYdt_oDykCC4noZrRM67vpgsjCak0azoqVZRLwDIjLzf-We7z6tXTxOJ2MS7jGuf2-1Ft_RWc8_-C9CVXopkw0/w400-h263/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One of the reasons you hear people give for suburban trains being not as frequent as they could be are level crossings. That might apply during peak times on busy lines but not really outside them. Ditto for signalling capacity, rolling stock or the Metro Tunnel not being open yet. People who should know better sometimes peddle myths around train frequency and how difficult it is to have all day. <br /><br />That needlessly lets service sceptical state governments off the hook and makes trains less useful for diverse trips than they should be. This has been a particular problem in Melbourne whose evening and Sunday morning trains are now only half as frequent as Sydney's (whose state government has been much stronger on service matters than ours has). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Low usage is another reason sometimes given for not running much service. Although it's a chicken and egg situation as poor service can induce low usage as much as frequent service encourages patronage. If you've got reasonable population density around stations (or good buses running to them) then that declines as an excuse too. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Fortunately station boarding numbers exist and we can settle the question. Are busier sections of the network better serviced than quieter sections? Or are service levels more due to history and politics than catchment density, patronage and community need? It would be particularly extraordinary, and a failure of responsive planning, if a popular line also had low service with timetables basically unchanged for decades. You'll find out whether that is the case in a moment.<br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Gauging service by maximum waits</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">My interactive <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/02/tt-152-introducing-melbournes-2022.html">10pm Sunday frequent network map</a> has a layer where you can see stations colour coded by maximum wait between approximately 7am and midnight (on any day of the week).</div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">I changed the presentation of that to show maximum waits by line section based on major junction stations in the suburbs. Because the central area (inside North Melbourne, Jolimont, Burnley, Richmond and Footscray) has many lines I didn't colour code frequency there. I then used per station 2022-23 boardings data obtained from DTP to add up boardings per section and plot them for each section. </div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The result (Metro services only) is below: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyifSAvDmFWMq1uRUszPeXB_DPJt5zzdnRYkUduZONTD1XYi49yYp0yeqL8lANkvBqMRoHgxg7-ymL24lvFGu0I8UW7zcPSdFSRlKLV74zEf_q51oAFk9NBnqu67EXv3wKBL4BpV4TWNFAsXjKtjhT1KIa40tu25p1F86_YZZeSEFrc1Ppca74/s622/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="622" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyifSAvDmFWMq1uRUszPeXB_DPJt5zzdnRYkUduZONTD1XYi49yYp0yeqL8lANkvBqMRoHgxg7-ymL24lvFGu0I8UW7zcPSdFSRlKLV74zEf_q51oAFk9NBnqu67EXv3wKBL4BpV4TWNFAsXjKtjhT1KIa40tu25p1F86_YZZeSEFrc1Ppca74/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;">In most cases the longest waits happen on Sunday mornings, often closely followed by evenings. Pakenham had 60 min gaps while all northern suburb lines (and Sandringham) had intervals up to 40 min between trains. <br /><br />30 minute intervals were common in the inland east, including busy junctions like Camberwell, Ringwood and Dandenong. These were also encountered not only on Sunday morning and evenings (particularly weekends) but also weekday interpeak at stations east of Ringwood. <br /><br />Lines with the shortest maximum waits (20 min) were those mostly hugging the bay including Frankston, Werribee and Williamstown. These had 30 or even 40 minute gaps but a timetable improvement in early 2021 reduced maximum waits to 20 min. Sandringham almost qualifies but didn't due to its infrequent Sunday morning timetable. <br /><br />The maximum wait approach I've taken is not perfect. For example it doesn't differentiate between lines that have frequent service most of the time and those that don't. For example it rates Werribee higher than Dandenong despite the latter's 10 minute midday service all week. But when you look at after 7pm weekend evening and Sunday morning service lines like Werribee take the lead with 20 minute frequencies versus 30 minutes for Dandenong. <br /><br />I make no apology for this since having short to medium maximum waits over say a 6am to midnight span is a necessary condition for a railway to be useful for diverse trip types. And if a line already runs frequently or semi-frequently 7 days then the extra annual service kilometres needed to cut maximum waits from 30 to 15 - 20 minutes at the ends of the day is trivial. So it's purely due to inertia that we don't have it. <br /><br />A move from a 'peak heavy' to 'all day frequent service' pattern is more aligned to modern working patterns, especially post-pandemic. A higher patronage to service elasticity assists the cost recovery ratio. Frequent all day service is also what differentiates a good system from a poor system and can drive more efficient land use and housing policies as well as widening households' choice regarding car ownership, with significant cost of living benefits. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Patronage versus maximum waits</span></b><br /><br />What about the patronage? I worked from the outside in, although the stars are at junction stations. For instance the 4.3 million is Werribee - Seaholme, 2.4 million is Newport - Seddon and 4.2 million is just Footscray and South Kensington (actually mostly Footscray). Not surprisingly the inner area had the highest at 53 million (mostly comprising suburban residents returning home). <br /><br />What sections have similar patronage levels but very different services? Most notable is the Craigieburn versus Frankston lines. Craigieburn has higher patronage than the Frankston line yet gets only half the service. This applies not only when waits are maximum (every 40 vs every 20 min on Sunday morning) but other times eg midday (every 20 vs every 10 min 7 days). Evenings also have a gap with Craigieburn's 30 versus Frankston's 20 minute frequency. Frankston is a famously politically marginal line while Craigieburn is populated by Labor loyalists who (in public transport services) have not had their political faith repaid by successive Labor governments. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc34iEbBypAJsvML47YL27Fz77svjuXT7eYou9Vw-ME15hZPBuFUVNmQO4FQ9QtdsQjxlbwd8y1-SNFeu5qBWy09JNVU8CM89ygg7KPhRgh22-oOw6m-tp8cmmlxu1pxId12RYVrDEdJVU7iG4fFLPI1i0THZQoXs2EA29cv6lCyqHqvY674wn/s493/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="493" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc34iEbBypAJsvML47YL27Fz77svjuXT7eYou9Vw-ME15hZPBuFUVNmQO4FQ9QtdsQjxlbwd8y1-SNFeu5qBWy09JNVU8CM89ygg7KPhRgh22-oOw6m-tp8cmmlxu1pxId12RYVrDEdJVU7iG4fFLPI1i0THZQoXs2EA29cv6lCyqHqvY674wn/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The above north-south disparity reflects 2024 service levels but there wasn't always a difference. Thirty years ago the Frankston line had a similar off-peak service level as lines in the north. However there has been a long-term trend to boost Frankston line service while timetables in Melbourne's north stagnated with the disparity growing over time. <br /><br />Hence Frankston line passengers now enjoy a 7 day turn up and go service (with a maximum 20 minute wait at night and on Sunday mornings) versus 20 to 40 minute frequencies on northern lines. To be fair the latter got extensions into growth areas (Watergardens, Craigieburn, South Morang, Sunbury, Mernda) however basic off-peak frequencies were never improved despite strong patronage. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFZkw6V-xCVEX9OKPrVlEJLBvOwVwavIPcVGRFhR08CatuvijHTyGHY_s_57WDGPTZdO3vc-JGE2b4JfDeimAVK3FwUd_P17YHD5fx09mRg6g5DvbT2thIxKO7SJJg8ertds1a26paYMMT-EpIXGYAxSM_CqnL_uN638844EVlGi6sza7rLDwx/s574/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="501" data-original-width="574" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFZkw6V-xCVEX9OKPrVlEJLBvOwVwavIPcVGRFhR08CatuvijHTyGHY_s_57WDGPTZdO3vc-JGE2b4JfDeimAVK3FwUd_P17YHD5fx09mRg6g5DvbT2thIxKO7SJJg8ertds1a26paYMMT-EpIXGYAxSM_CqnL_uN638844EVlGi6sza7rLDwx/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />Also in the north-west/north are the Sunbury and Mernda lines. These have similar patronage (around 6.5 million) and, like Craigieburn, are in the 40 minute maximum wait club on Sunday mornings. Sunbury should get improvements when Metro Tunnel starts though nothing conclusive has yet been published since the 2016 business case. Each line's annual usage closely matches Ringwood's usage (6.4 million) which gets a 30 minute maximum wait. The difference between these lines is highest on weekends thanks to Ringwood's 10 minute midday service versus 20 minutes on the other lines. </div><br />Pakenham, with its 2.6 million annual boardings gets a particularly raw deal on the maximum wait scale due to it's terrible Sunday morning timetable with hourly gaps. It's a big contrast with nearby Cranbourne (which has barely half the usage) and an even bigger contrast with Williamstown (with 1/5 the usage). It does however enjoy a better weekday interpeak frequency (20 min) compared to the also short-changed Belgrave and Lilydale sections east of Ringwood (every 30 min). Stations in this ara like Mooroolbark and Bayswater (recently rebuilt with level crossings removed) are demographically similar to the likes of Carrum and Frankston yet get only one-third the off-peak frequency (30 vs 10 min). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">It's almost all politics! Not 'objective' criteria like population density, usage and social needs. <br /><br />The maximum waits you have for trains depends on who your neighbours vote for and especially how politically loyal they are. Service differences between some lines have gone from negligible 30 years ago to about 2:1 today, despite major sections of the less served line attracting higher usage (notwithstanding the inferior service). <br /><br />The record shows significant policy difference between the main parties when in government. Labor has had a stronger public transport infrastructure agenda than Coalition governments. But on service, especially metropolitan rail service, if anything it's been the Coalition that has been stronger. <br /><br />For example past Coalition governments (even Jeff Kennett's) greatly boosted Metro train services (mostly in their east-of-Yarra safe or marginal seats) while Labor governments returned few similar favours for their loyalists in the north. <br /><br />The result is thus a widening have/have-not gap in the geographical distribution of 7 day frequent train service so necessary for Melbourne to function as a prosperous, liveable and equitable city. <br /><br />Another look at at patronage data is provided by Daniel Bowen <a href="https://www.danielbowen.com/2022/03/03/vic-pt-patronage-data/">here</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_26.html"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Index to Useful Network items here</b></span></a><br /><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-23272762836975327242024-01-25T06:39:00.000+11:002024-01-25T06:39:03.288+11:00Public Transport to public swimming pools<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJLmT8fBXZf6FWrOYH2T43n13smtMPz7NQ9ugqGtesFmAgfK-Vjoh31ptxq-n5CuKVsw6cX2wMzyuonfh12M0ZtL-r2lR-5RMzqEP3gJuGRXdGYrpoKnM49IK07KMDo26Jyed_qftdMdg1BEO3SHlZ9r-8_fI6a_j8si_mJtrawbwueVv1_ZYu/s604/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="319" data-original-width="604" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJLmT8fBXZf6FWrOYH2T43n13smtMPz7NQ9ugqGtesFmAgfK-Vjoh31ptxq-n5CuKVsw6cX2wMzyuonfh12M0ZtL-r2lR-5RMzqEP3gJuGRXdGYrpoKnM49IK07KMDo26Jyed_qftdMdg1BEO3SHlZ9r-8_fI6a_j8si_mJtrawbwueVv1_ZYu/w400-h211/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>It's summer which means many will be heading to swimming pools to cool off. How good is public transport, especially weekend public transport, to them? To find out I grabbed a <a href="https://www.melbourneplaygrounds.com.au/list-of-public-swimming-pools-in-melbourne-and-victoria">list of public swimming pools</a> and did a quick assessment of routes and service levels (like I <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/08/public-transport-to-melbournes.html">did for hospitals</a>). <br /><br />Criteria include proximity, destinations and availability of transport from multiple directions with 7 day service and frequency (especially on weekends). But I will make some allowances for area. Eg if an area has poor public transport but the pool is well located within it (eg handy to local shops) then I've been more generous as it's more convenient for people to walk to or combine with other trips. Conversely pools less well located or near walking hostile roads with large roundabouts that lack pedestrian crossings are marked down even though they may have more bus routes nearby. <br /><br />Pools are listed roughly in order of suburb name. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Melbourne Sports and Aquatic Centre - MSAC (Albert Park)</b> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b style="font-weight: bold;"><br />GOOD </b>Trams 12 and 96 nearby. <br /><b><br />* Bayfit Leisure Centre (Altona North) <br /></b><b><br />POOR </b>Buses 412 and 432 nearby. 412 is only every 80 min on weekends while 432 is slow and indirect. </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Ascot Vale Leisure Centre </b></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Nearest transport is tram 57 and bus 472 (Moonee Ponds - Williamstown). 472 is every 15-20 min Mon-Sat but only every 50 min on Sunday. Also about 10 min walk from station. <br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Ashburton Pool and Recreation Centre (Ashburton)</b></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Within 10 minutes walk of Ashburton station on Alamein train line, bus 734 along High St and 903 on Warrigal Rd. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Boroondara Sports Complex (Balwyn North) </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Bus routes 302 and 304 stop outside. This provides a reasonable east west service most days, although Sunday frequency drops. Lowering the score is the near absence of north-south connectivity on nearby Balwyn Rd, with only a poor weekend service offered on the 285 (which doesn't run on Sundays). <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Belgrave Swimming Pool </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR</b> The nearest public transport is the only occasional Route 699. 697 is next closest. It's more frequent than the 699 but is still very limited on weekends. A few might walk from the station (trains every 30 min on weekdays) but the area's hilly terrain and limited footpaths may put many off. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Glen Eira Sports and Aquatic Centre (GESAC) (Bentleigh East) </b><br /><br /><b>POOR-FAIR </b>Served by one bus - the 627 - which runs north-south every 30 min weekdays and 40 min weekends. The 822 - another north-south route - behind the pool is another option for some. The pool's location away from major east-west roads limits access in that direction. However there is the 703 on Centre Rd every 15-20 min weekdays and 30 min weekends. The centre is not near any train station. <br /><br /><b>* Knox LeisureWorks (Boronia) </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR</b> No buses within about 600m. The nearest routes are 737 and 753 which are typically only every 40 - 60 min on weekends. An indirect 10-15 min walk from Boronia station which has only a limited (every 30 min) weekday service. <br /><br /><b>* Aqualink Box Hill (Box Hill) </b><br /><br /><b>FAIR</b> Not near station but about 300m from Station St served by 732, 735 and 903. These offer a reasonable number of buses per hour on weekends but reference to timetables are still needed. The pool is also about 400m from Elgar Rd which has the 767. Access from the east and west is poor due to the absence of a bus on Canterbury Rd. <br /><b><br />* Broadmeadows Leisure Centre </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Walkable from a variety of local and Smart bus routes and the train at Broadmeadows station. Area is walking hostile for a town centre though. <br /><br /><b>* Brunswick Baths (Brunswick) </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Very close to frequent 19 tram on Sydney Rd. Even closer to the Upfield line but about midway between Brunswick and Jewell stations. Both provide efficient north-south connections. East-west access is however limited with the popular 506 bus reducing its frequency on Saturday afternoon and not running Sunday. <br /><b><br />* Latrobe University Sports Centre Indoor Pool (Bundoora) </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> The location deep within the university campus is not that convenient if walking from the 86 tram on Plenty Rd. Frequent buses operate on weekdays (including the 301 university shuttle) but only the 250 and 561 runs 7 days. <br /><b><br />* Carlton Baths Community Centre Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />FAIR - GOOD</b> Right on the 250/251 bus route which form a frequent corridor. Also walkable to 1 & 6 trams on Lygon St and 96 on Nicholson St. East-west connectivity is however poor with the nearby 546 bus not running weekends. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Clayton Aquatics & Health Club Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> On popular bus routes including 631, 703, 704 and 733 although with typical 30 - 40 min weekend frequencies. About 10 min walk to Clayton station which offers trains every 10 min 7 days a week. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />* Doug Ellis Pool Monash University (Clayton) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Approx 5 min walk from bus interchange which includes routes from a wide area. Weekend frequencies are however limited, being typically every 30 to 60 min with some routes not operating. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Collingwood Leisure Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>VERY GOOD</b> Opposite Clifton Hill train station with frequent service. Also served by frequent 246 bus. 504 bus in area but less frequent on weekends. 546 connects to north-east but doesn't operate weekends. <br /><br /><b>* Coburg Leisure Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>VERY GOOD</b> Close to frequent 19 tram and walkable from Coburg Station. Also has frequent east-west connections via buses 513/514, 527, 561 and 903 SmartBus. <br /><br /><b>* Coburg Olympic Swimming Pool Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Nearest route is 526 which doesn't run Sundays and has limited hours on other days. 561 a little further away offers 7 day service every 50 min on weekends. Some may also walk from 19 tram which runs frequently 7 days. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Splash Aqua Park and Leisure Centre (Craigieburn) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> On edge of town centre with several bus routes to surrounding areas typically every 40 min on weekends. No frequent 7 day route runs to local stations. Walkability also uninspiring. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Casey Recreation & Aquatic Centre (RACE) (Cranbourne) </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Not in town centre. Near 897 bus that runs every 20 min 7 days but limited access from other parts of Cranbourne especially to north. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Crib Point Pool Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Within 600m of Crib point station and 782 bus. Low frequency of both (approx every 2 hours) limits access. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Croydon Leisure & Aquatic Centre (AquaHub) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Nearest bus, about 200m away, is 664 every 30 - 60 min. About 500m from station and bus interchange. Local buses are limited and train only every 30 min on weekdays. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Croydon Memorial Pool Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD </b>Short walk from station and bus interchange. No crossing of major roads. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Dandenong Oasis Leisure Centre Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Well beyond walking distance of station. Served by multiple bus routes but all are infrequent weekends or (like 802 and 804) do not run 7 days. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Diamond Creek Outdoor Pool Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Very good location only 100 metres from train station but rating was held back by trains only every 40 min. Buses 381 and 580 run 7 days, 343 does not. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Doveton Pool in the Park (Doveton) Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>VERY POOR</b> Only bus is 844 which finishes early Saturdays and does not run Sundays. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Emerald Lake Park Wading Pool (Emerald) Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR - FAIR</b> About 400m from 695 and 695F buses. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Eltham Leisure Centre (Eltham) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR</b> No public transport to centre. Nearest buses are 513 and 902 on Main Rd accessible via Wingrove Park trail. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Fawkner Leisure Centre Indoor & Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> 530 bus stops outside but limited frequency. About 700m to limited service weekday only 531 bus on Sydney Rd. 800m to station. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Fitzroy Swimming Pool Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Short walk from frequent Route 11 tram on Brunswick Street and somewhat longer to 86 tram on Nicholson St. East-west transport is however poor with nearby 546 bus not running weekends. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Yarraville Swim Centre (Footscray West) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR</b> Served only by Route 414 bus. Operates limited hours, every 80 min Saturdays with no Sunday service. Train at the uninviting Tottenham station approx 800m walk away. <br /><b><br />* Aqualink Nunawading (Forest Hill) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Only nearby public transport is the Route 902 on Springvale Rd which runs every 15 min weekdays and 30 min weekends. Absence of a bus route on Canterbury Rd means there is no east-west transport to the centre. Indirect and not frequent bus 765 is however an indirect walk to the south. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Peninsula Aquatic Recreation Centre (PARC) (Frankston) Indoor, two water slides</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>GOOD</b> Short walk from Frankston Station and bus interchange (including 901 SmartBus). Connections to Mornington possible via Routes 781, 784 and 785. On weekdays frequent buses operate to Karingal (789, 790, 791) with a lesser weekend service. Rating would be higher if other local routes ran more frequent and/or 7 days (many don't). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Pines Forest Swimming Centre (Frankston North) Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Directly served by Route 833 between Frankston and Carrum which runs every 30 min weekdays and 60 min weekends. Approx 1km walk from 901 SmartBus on Frankston - Dandenong Rd which offers half these waits along with local route 832. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Harold Holt Swim Centre (Glen Iris) Indoor & Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Directly on tram route 6 which offers frequent service. Tram 5 and 72 are a further walk away but may be useful for some. Poor access from south with only option being 624 bus (hourly on weekends) on Tooronga Rd. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Monash Aquatic & Recreation Centre (Glen Waverley) Indoor & Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR</b> Located on Route 623 which offers east-west connectivity with buses every 30 min weekdays and 60 min weekends. Unfortunate placement in middle of large block distant from north-south main roads limits north-south connectivity. However a number of buses run to Glen Waverley from Springvale Rd (about 600m east). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* WaterMarc Banyule (Greensborough) Indoor, water slides and splash park</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>GOOD</b> Area a little hilly to walk but still within 200m of Greensborough station served by numerous bus routes including 901 and 902 SmartBuses (each every 30 min weekends). <br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Pelican Park Recreation Centre (Hastings) Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR - FAIR</b> About 400m from 782/783 buses in Hastings town centre. These run approximately hourly each day. About 1.2 - 1.4km east of Hastings station on infrequent Stony Point line. <br /><br /><b>* Hawthorn Aquatic & Leisure Centre (Hawthorn) Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>EXCELLENT</b> Opposite Glenferrie Station with Route 16 tram even closer. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Healesville Outdoor Pool </b><br /><br /><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> About 300m from Route 685 to Lilydale. About 10 min walk from town centre.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Jack Hort Memorial Indoor Pool (Healesville) </b><br /><br /><b>VERY POOR</b> No nearby public transport. Significant walk to 685 bus. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Heidelberg West Olympic Leisure Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>GOOD</b> Multiple bus routes nearby including 250, 517, 903. 549 does not run 7 days. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Highett Waves Leisure Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Distant from station or local shops. Served by 767 bus (every 30 - 40 min weekends) and infrequent 811/812. No east-west routes. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Wyndham Leisure & Events Centre (Aqua Pulse) (Hoppers Crossing) </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Served by 170 bus every 20 min 7 days between Werribee and Tarneit. Not near station. East-west routes on Heaths Rd but some distance away and poor walkability. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Ivanhoe Aquatic & Fitness Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR</b> Only bus is 549 which is infrequent and doesn't run 7 days. Next nearest bus is 548 which also doesn't run 7 days. Route 250 does run 7 days but is some distance to west. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* East Keilor Leisure Centre Indoor & Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Nearest bus is indirect 469. 465 and 903 are somewhat further away (typically every 20-30 min Sat, 30-40 min Sunday). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Brimbank Aquatic and Wellness Centre (Keilor Downs) Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>FAIR</b> 418 and 421 (every 40-60 min weekends) stop nearby. Pool is close to shopping centre. About 1km to station. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Springers Leisure Centre (Keysborough) </b><br /><br /><b>POOR</b> Located in middle of park hemmed in by freeway and school, increasing distances. About 400m south of busy Cheltenham Rd which has buses 812 and 828 (both hourly on Sundays) but walking distance is increased further by lack of convenient pedestrian crossing causing backtracking. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_-w9aLYc8VrwPioU1w_eZEc57Ai8t7Xue_eYfW2knB6Xw5ZGqIi-_cUpd2IEI6VptjAWII3r-AkmqKKlTQv4nFbVhcx1l8cSi3anHdF8U-9IdOBBU0RVNTt42_NCVbiXRUcMM0BzLWdN78_TeusR1jc2bCrooVU9ghxCVxxnsQcXkMTbCjaCo/s827/temp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="412" data-original-width="827" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_-w9aLYc8VrwPioU1w_eZEc57Ai8t7Xue_eYfW2knB6Xw5ZGqIi-_cUpd2IEI6VptjAWII3r-AkmqKKlTQv4nFbVhcx1l8cSi3anHdF8U-9IdOBBU0RVNTt42_NCVbiXRUcMM0BzLWdN78_TeusR1jc2bCrooVU9ghxCVxxnsQcXkMTbCjaCo/w400-h199/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Laverton Swim and Fitness Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR</b> Approx 400m to buses on Bladin St. Of the three routes (400, 414, 417) only 400 operates 7 days (every 40 min approx). Over 1km from station. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Lilydale Swimming Pool Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Approx 400m to station and bus interchange. Weekday trains only every 30 min while weekend buses are either infrequent or do not run. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Maribyrnong Aquatic Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Close to 82 tram and generally frequent 223 bus. 409 bus also nearby. Some other bus routes eg 408 have infrequent Sunday service. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Melbourne City Baths Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>EXCELLENT</b> Near numerous trams and Melbourne Central Station. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Melton Waves Leisure Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR </b>On two indirect bus routes (453 & 455) that each run only hourly on weekends. Distant from station and not near shopping centre. Area has poor walkability. <br /><br /><b>* Mill Park Leisure Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR</b> On bus route 382 (every 40 min). East west access provided by bus route 566 which is indirect, confusing and infrequent. Area has poor walkability with pedestrian-hostile roundabouts. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Monbulk Aquatic Centre Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR - FAIR</b> About an 800m indirect walk from the main shops the site is served by bus 663. This is every 30 min weekdays and 60 min weekends. <br /><br /><br /><b>* Mordialloc Aquatic and Leisure Centre (proposed) </b><br /><br /><b>LIKELY POOR</b> Located in an industrial area the site has a discontinuous path from Mordialloc station and limited bus services. The nearest routes to the Governor Rd site include the weekday peak only 705 and the hourly (on weekends) 708 between Hampton and Carrum. Route 709 operates every 30 min 7 days but is further away, requiring negotiation of a walking hostile roundabout. Improved walkability and a weekend upgrade to 708 to run every 30 min would increase its rating to fair. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpt8QrL6eEqoWzRNCWdMZSrNFWWXTz2YUmX7z1ATmCWs3KIgieV4yO9545NjyTu5H7tPJn0WyXBHfyzdJRiJUS9nax1EPGTMmhsODKtOFp8mrRJaYFB3QiJy3RQDc3ovD1ISANlaZhH9TwtKzVM8U_WtDgK4HxbauSWYqXRsOwZlnmu3oz0VKl/s593/temp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="593" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpt8QrL6eEqoWzRNCWdMZSrNFWWXTz2YUmX7z1ATmCWs3KIgieV4yO9545NjyTu5H7tPJn0WyXBHfyzdJRiJUS9nax1EPGTMmhsODKtOFp8mrRJaYFB3QiJy3RQDc3ovD1ISANlaZhH9TwtKzVM8U_WtDgK4HxbauSWYqXRsOwZlnmu3oz0VKl/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Healthways Recreation Centre (Mont Albert North) Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Served only by the limited service daytime only 612 bus that runs hourly on Saturdays and not at all on Sundays. A 1km (approx) indirect walk to the 109 tram on Mont Albert Rd. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Queens Park Outdoor Pool (Moonee Ponds) Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> On frequent tram route 59 and a short walk from Moonee Ponds Junction. Holding back the score is poor east-west connectivity due to infrequent buses on weekends. 508 is only every 30-40 min on weekends while 506 lacks Sunday service. Route 404 from Footscray also doesn't run Sundays. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Casey Aquatic and Recreation Centre (ARC) (Narre Warren) Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR</b> Nearest bus stops are on busy Princes Hwy with no pedestrian crossing. Otherwise passengers can alight at the uninviting Fountain Gate bus interchange. Typical weekend service every 40 - 60 min only. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Noble Park Aquatic Centre Indoor & Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>FAIR</b> About 10 min walk from station with frequent train service and some local buses. Buses in some directions are however limited with 811 only every hour and no route connecting the area to Noble Park North. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* North Melbourne Recreation Centre Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>GOOD - VERY GOOD </b>Within 200m of 57 tram and 402 bus. Will be even closer to Arden station served by Metro Tunnel trains. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Oakleigh Recreation Centre Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>POOR</b> Nearest service is 624 and 693 on Princes Hwy (both hourly weekends). Poor pedestrian connectivity across major highway to stops. 800, 802, 804 and 862 stop on Warrigal Rd but only indirect pedestrian access and only Route 862 runs Sundays. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Olinda Outdoor Pool (Olinda) </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>VERY POOR</b> Route 696 stops nearby but this is a limited service weekday only shopper route. Otherwise approx 1km walk west to Olinda shops where the 7 day 688 can be caught. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">* Cardinia LiFE (Pakenham) Indoor</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Pakenham Outdoor Pool (Pakenham) Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR</b> Distant from station. On bus routes 925 and 926 which typically have 60 - 80 min gaps. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Oak Park Aquatic Centre (Pascoe Vale) Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Approx 500m walk from Oak Park Station. Closer to 542 bus but this is limited service with no Sunday service on this portion. Route also lacks stops right near Pascoe Vale Rd. <br /><br /><br /><b>* Pascoe Vale Outdoor Pool </b><br /><br /><b>FAIR</b> About 700m walk from Pascoe Vale Station. Bus routes 513 & 514 stop nearby. Every 20 min weekdays but drop to a combined 40 min service on Sundays. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Prahran Aquatic Centre Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>VERY GOOD</b> Near intersection of 72 and 78 tram routes. Also served by 603 and 604 buses. Prahran Station about 600m away. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Reservoir Leisure Centre Indoor & Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Served by several bus routes including 552, 556 and 561. Typically every 15-25 min weekdays, around every 40 min weekends. Getting to bus stop may require crossing large unsignalised roundabout. Approximately 800m east of station. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0avEA-LAzvy3nkKoHr-OIJlr9jdqUnqeEjKoriZHnhv6I2Ux2PiMSMIqBFXVb-bHk2rLv0J34AG26bNFeCyQ5i3-WLsug09WLBLQjBfQyIlbbOdAUu9ggHy_rDuNfZx5E-BZ9BhknHi2GojVlv6NrmRvxWAPCM1jZlHUEQJfWOzBHNCh7gBX7/s638/temp.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="638" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0avEA-LAzvy3nkKoHr-OIJlr9jdqUnqeEjKoriZHnhv6I2Ux2PiMSMIqBFXVb-bHk2rLv0J34AG26bNFeCyQ5i3-WLsug09WLBLQjBfQyIlbbOdAUu9ggHy_rDuNfZx5E-BZ9BhknHi2GojVlv6NrmRvxWAPCM1jZlHUEQJfWOzBHNCh7gBX7/w400-h224/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><b>* Richmond Recreation Centre Indoor</b><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>VERY GOOD</b> Near intersection of 48/75 and 78 tram routes. Approx 10 min walk from 12 & 109 trams. Approx 1km east of West Richmond Station. <br /><br /><br /><b>* Ringwood Regional Aquatic & Leisure Centre (Aquanation) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Approx 300m east of 901 bus on Wantirna Rd (every 15 min weekdays, 30 min weekends). Approx 1km south of train station and large bus interchange. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* St Kilda Sea Baths Indoor</b><br /><br /><b>GOOD</b> 16 and 96 trams stop close by. Also served by 606 (nearby) and 623 bus (slightly further). Both are every 30 - 40 min on weekends. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Sunbury Aquatic & Leisure Centre Indoor & Outdoor</b><br /><br /><b>FAIR - GOOD </b>About 500m from Sunbury station and bus interchange. Services typically every 40 min. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Sunshine Leisure Centre Indoor & Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Nearest buses are 408 and 410 on Devonshire Rd. Each is every 15-20 min Mon-Sat but drop to hourly on Sundays. No convenient pedestrian crossing on Devonshire Rd near Kennedy St. Handy to shopping centre on Hampshire Rd where other buses eg 220 and 903 stop. Approx 800m to station. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Doncaster Aquarena Aquatic and Leisure Centre (Templestowe Lower) Indoor & Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Located on main road served by buses 279 (some trips), 293 (hourly weekends) and 902 (every 30 min weekends). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>* Thomastown Recreation & Aquatic Centre (TRAC) Indoor & Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR</b> Bus 357 (every 40 min most times) stops close by. Approx 500m west of station. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Werribee Outdoor Pool </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>POOR - FAIR</b> Approx 300m to infrequent 153 and 443 routes. Past end of long shopping strip, approx 1km away from station and even further from bus interchange. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Whittlesea Swimming Centre Outdoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> About 300m from town centre and 382 bus stop (service every 40 min).<br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Yarra Centre (Yarra Junction Aquatic Centre) Indoor</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>FAIR - GOOD</b> Opposite main shops. About 100m from 683 bus (approx every hour). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br />Conclusion</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">A summary of transport to each known operational public aquatic centre or swimming pool has been presented above. Assessments are only approximate and you might disagree with some - opportunity to comment below. <br /><br />Some centres are so poorly located that when they become too expensive to repair the best option may be closure and relocation to a more transport-friendly site. <br /><br />However most others are in at least reasonable locations. These have opportunity for service improvements to improve access to them. The most important of these include: <br /><br />* Good active transport access including direct walking and cycling paths, pedestrian crossings on 'desire lines' to remove backtracking, traffic calming and large roundabout removals/intersection signalisation for better walkability.<br /><br />* Bus operating hours and frequency upgrades, especially on weekends where many routes still run half (or less) service compared to weekdays. <br /><br />* Bus network reform where scope exists to improve connections between a pool and its surrounds. <br /><br />Because local councils are heavily involved in the funding, construction and management of pools and leisure centres they have a strong role in advocating (and in some cases construction) for necessary transport and access improvements. </p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-68077367040811368412023-12-31T06:00:00.210+11:002024-01-01T10:29:54.069+11:00Will 2024 be the year of bus reform?<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqCPqauDPE8arj7SPTHehZmf6G6iMilXID5SKCrZAcnHW2-B11p1eTgc2vdJQM_5w0CLNk3S1bKU2i7GWyCWeWhmDC7O-QEDMyXxKLT6U-7YATwoelr-nV5qhLx48VqcDRYnz7CnceRbOnebx1HkFkJJw9dn_xQ1svK5Tku-bDxkhWBw94o-SB/s856/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="856" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqCPqauDPE8arj7SPTHehZmf6G6iMilXID5SKCrZAcnHW2-B11p1eTgc2vdJQM_5w0CLNk3S1bKU2i7GWyCWeWhmDC7O-QEDMyXxKLT6U-7YATwoelr-nV5qhLx48VqcDRYnz7CnceRbOnebx1HkFkJJw9dn_xQ1svK5Tku-bDxkhWBw94o-SB/w400-h224/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: justify;">I reflected on 2022's achievements and events in the public transport service space <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-year-in-review.html">here</a>. On the broader scene, 2023 was most notable for the retirement of premier Daniel Andrews, his replacement with Jacinta Allan and the elevation of Ben Carroll to Deputy Premier. The resultant reshuffle led to Gabrielle Williams gaining the renamed Public and Active Transport portfolio.</div></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">In terms of what got done, transport's main service successes in 2023 were initiatives funded in 2022's budget. <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/past-budget-funded-service-upgrades.html">Almost all</a> of these got implemented and are proving beneficial. However there have been few announcements of anything new. This can be attributed to the state government's <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-24-state-budget-special-what-do.html">underwhelming 2023 budget</a> (for buses & PT service generally) and its now <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/bus-plan-turns-two-still-alive.html">apparently in-recess</a><a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/metro-and-regional-buses"> Bus Plan</a> that emerged with so much promise over 900 days ago. </div><p></p><br /> <script>(function(d, s, id) { var js, pjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//www.tickcounter.com/static/js/loader.js"; pjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, pjs); }(document, "script", "tickcounter-sdk"));</script><a class="tickcounter" data-id="333288" data-type="countup" href="//www.tickcounter.com/countup" style="display: block; height: 0px; left: 0px; margin: 0px auto; padding-bottom: 15%; position: relative; width: 100%;" title="Days since Victoria's Bus Plan was launched">Days since Victoria's Bus Plan was launched</a> <p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.tickcounter.com/countup/333481/days-since-victorias-bus-plan-was-launched"><i>link to count-up Bus Plan clock</i></a><br /><br />That not even the promised 'Bus Reform Implementation Plan' has come out after the better part of three years is a poor reflection on the Bus Plan and its lowly status within government. In fact it's hard to find many government activities that the previous premier's famous quote that "we're not wasting a single minute" was any less true. <br /><br />Still 2023 was not all bad for bus reform. Substantial research has come from the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/committee-for-melbournes-course.html">Committee for Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/12/un-166-time-to-revive-bus-reform-five.html">Infrastructure Victoria</a>. Both bodies recommended similar - ie that buses must be made more direct, frequent and useful similar to my <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/07/un-135-future-frequent-network.html">Future Frequent Network</a>. This work has sparked significant media coverage, raising the profile of <a href="https://www.facebook.com/WeSustainCities/">community</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Fix800Bus">campaigns</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/7day506bus">across</a> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/536bus7days">Melbourne</a> which really kicked up a notch in 2023. Buses also got a good run in parliamentary questions and speeches during the year. <br /><br />The government might claim it's broke but they have nowhere to hide given that Melbourne's transport needs continue to grow and buses remain the most cost-effective means of delivering the frequent 7 day service the community needs. Questions have also been <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/parliamentary-activity/hansard/hansard-details/HANSARD-974425065-24413">asked about GAIC</a> and the possibility of more or better use of funds from this tax to fund improved growth area bus services. <br /><br />Maybe this will be the future of bus reform? DTP's recipe of releasing a shallow '<a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/06/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_02145429271.html">plan for a plan</a>', doing a few good things at the start, then wasting nearly 3 years on an increasingly improbable implementation plan as the state's finances deteriorated has turned out a dud. <br /><br />This course of action was taken despite there never being mystery about what needs to be done. After all adequate data existed to assess priorities back in 2021 when the Bus Plan came out. Not to mention significant prior planning work, most of which the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/06/10-steps-to-200-million-achieving.html">public doesn't know about</a>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">DTP should have pondered less and done more, starting with <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">simple and cheap</a> to grow their <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/un-155-how-long-does-it-really-take-to.html">currently stunted yet byzantine</a> delivery capabilities. Then new bus routes would no longer take longer to implement than major capital works like level crossing removals and growth areas would get the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-06/melbourne-public-transport-bus-infrastructure-victoria-report/103190650">service they need</a> sooner. <br /><br />Minister Gabrielle Williams and DTP secretary Paul Younis could draw inspiration from none other than both the previous and current premiers. While some in 2014 looked at Labor's level crossing removal promise with incredulity, thinking it couldn't be done, it was. Ahead of schedule with the program subsequently expanded. <br /><br />Yes money's tighter today but a lot of bus (and indeed off-peak train) service boosts are incredibly cost-effective. Especially when you add the broader cost of living and housing access benefits of a more extensive frequent 7 day public transport network. And that the operational costs involved are easier to predict than the current runaway build bills for certain major projects. <br /><br />Although they've spent nearly a decade spurning service (and reform of it) in favour of big build infrastructure, if this government wants to do something beneficial and affordable in public transport, it's going to have to revive interest in service basics like useful routes, operating hours and frequency. And 2024 will be a critical year to bed down the changes needed before the 2026 state election. <br /><br />The clock is ticking. The time to start is now. <br /></div><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-16006358177651212932023-12-28T08:56:00.561+11:002024-01-10T05:47:39.204+11:00UN 168: Why Melbourne's outgrown the City Loop<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgulRRf1ERbZ5Ap8adeNOdVDrpOD68OvNlb4Mvfj6SJpK85yjXxGdD0yyDNt6Wkmv7uM2qT9mNh10G9YML5erlPIb2rCXRDwiN_x4vGQqrEJXrRgfT6eUzExynG1atVbo96M-z22JP7YVuvjzIUshK4YUJQg7Z9OPjeInIvsEqi9rSmpIEZwj4k/s417/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="401" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgulRRf1ERbZ5Ap8adeNOdVDrpOD68OvNlb4Mvfj6SJpK85yjXxGdD0yyDNt6Wkmv7uM2qT9mNh10G9YML5erlPIb2rCXRDwiN_x4vGQqrEJXrRgfT6eUzExynG1atVbo96M-z22JP7YVuvjzIUshK4YUJQg7Z9OPjeInIvsEqi9rSmpIEZwj4k/w385-h400/temp.PNG" width="385" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>While urban rail networks are often described in terms of the number of lines, number of stations and even their trains per hour capacity, there is one thing that we should hear a lot more about. <br /><br />Network configuration. <p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This is particularly critical around the network's core where multiple lines converge and public transport's role is greatest. <br /><br />The maps below show the varying rail configurations used in four Australian state capitals. Brisbane isn't shown but currently operates what is effectively a single through trunk for multiple lines. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOjf-meGDiMp9BB9WsmAfKF-lzPQfNYCXOQDp0OjAiNwnyeuFEiFAgzMZMS-Db3ieMwrPrgTt-piGoijRruVPgCt8XVAc04QMtJLzVDHKNjzKM_2-ALlp4qfhcdAIkyQGa7v-5eZCLpnbm342w3APz4nFSAp8jxQ55WNuHcEqXZk68xV2CKOEn/s579/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="459" data-original-width="579" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOjf-meGDiMp9BB9WsmAfKF-lzPQfNYCXOQDp0OjAiNwnyeuFEiFAgzMZMS-Db3ieMwrPrgTt-piGoijRruVPgCt8XVAc04QMtJLzVDHKNjzKM_2-ALlp4qfhcdAIkyQGa7v-5eZCLpnbm342w3APz4nFSAp8jxQ55WNuHcEqXZk68xV2CKOEn/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Stub terminus</span></b><br /><br />The most basic configuration is where all lines approach the CBD from one direction, terminating at a 'stub station', often inconveniently on the edge of a CBD. This has little to recommend for anything more than a small city. This is because unless the CBD is very compact a single station isn't sufficient for adequate coverage without an inconvenient transfer (which adds time). Also, assuming the CBD is roughly central to the metropolitan area, having the lines come from one direction lessens inner area coverage and directness, thus further increasing travel times. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Through travel requires backtracking, adding a transfer penalty or at least a delay for inner north to inner south trips. Backtracking is also terrible for perceived time and thus system attractiveness. Thus rail network with stub stations are one-trick ponies, only really good for CBD trips. Stub platforms also requires arriving trains to change ends to depart. Compared to through running this reduces platform capacity and thus the ability to run a reliable and frequent service that moves large crowds. <br /><br />The practical experience of all this in Adelaide is a city far more dependent on buses than trains for its public transport because despite being slower the former are more direct and often more frequent. All other main Australian capitals evolved their rail systems away from stubs decades ago. There is however <a href="https://indaily.com.au/news/2023/11/08/adelaide-underground-rail-key-to-transport-vision/">local advocacy for underground rail</a> that if ever built would provide through running and transform the network.<br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;"> A CBD loop</span></b><br /><br />A rail loop is one way to add coverage if your CBD is too big to be served by a single stub station or even a few stations in a line. It could also speed trips if passengers previously had to walk, bused or trammed to their destination. And if built in an expensive manner (like Melbourne opted for with 4 underground platforms) it could provide a convenient one-seat ride to all CBD stations from all suburban lines. Speed could be further increased from the newer stations if the loop changed direction in the middle of the day (as Melbourne's did and still partially does). <br /><br />Unfortunately the loop's <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/01/timetable-tuesday-102-40th-anniversary.html">design and operations</a> were driven by the then fashionable single purpose view of the rail network as being only for one-seat ride CBD commuters. This was viewed as rail's last and only role as rising car ownership, inner suburb hollowing and new shopping centres remote from rail led to fewer local and off-peak trips being made on rail. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Un-named <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdizRXGuCDA">c2008 video</a> explain the evolution of services that lead to the City Loop's operating pattern with only some reforms made since.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Unfortunately optimising the loop for a subset of suburban commuters made central area rail travel and transferring confusing at best and counterproductive at worst for everyone else. Some passengers had slower trips, with them being taken the 'long way around' compared to the previous through-route operations. The huge drop off in public transport's modal share even in Docklands and Southbank when compared to the Hoddle Grid can partly be attributed to the Loop making connectivity worse for areas just outside it. <br /><br />The Loop's reversal also made some trips only possible at some times of the day on some days of the week. But even on lines where the reversal has been removed dwell times remain unpredictable and sometimes excessive with huge variations in travel times for short trips in dense areas. Even on the latest HCMT trains <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1739580906531402150">passenger information can be ineffective</a> since anything can happen once a train arrives at Flinders Street. The funnelling of multiple lines via each Loop portal also meant that disruptions to one line could affect other lines, making the network less resilient than it should be. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvZRsj28DHikLIaBuXP-vH8LfF1j9X9bbCnEgScFuv8zlHFaMBLhoI47VyvhchzzRBlcldRaYkz45NnXmXpQg_cadKacTrrZ-nNYYlmDAAwBQHucKvi-GjCYUNtuQl84bI7kI9KiTVITP2OOCdokHrlcze5wa-K0lt2EWRzRje8bqcrF_-6fYv/s471/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="471" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvZRsj28DHikLIaBuXP-vH8LfF1j9X9bbCnEgScFuv8zlHFaMBLhoI47VyvhchzzRBlcldRaYkz45NnXmXpQg_cadKacTrrZ-nNYYlmDAAwBQHucKvi-GjCYUNtuQl84bI7kI9KiTVITP2OOCdokHrlcze5wa-K0lt2EWRzRje8bqcrF_-6fYv/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>The City Loop undoubtedly encouraged development and brought coverage gains for rail in the north and east of the CBD. But the version we got was too expensive and had too many shortcomings to be really worth its dollars. Like a squiggly bus route it provides coverage and one seat rides. But unlike a bad bus its effects are felt metropolitan wide, hindering thousands daily. <br /><br />A bruise at the rail network's heart, the City Loop's negative effect would only increase as the CBD expanded outside the Hoddle Grid to precincts like Docklands and Southbank, which relied on 'old' stations like Flinders and Spencer Streets. Not to mention densifying South Yarra whose travel to stations like Jolimont and Collingwood is complicated by Loop operations. <br /><br />The City Loop is as bad as it is because it was planned at a time when commuter access to the CBD was king and we had forgotten the need for a versatile rail network good for diverse trips across a wide area. That's been rediscovered in the last 15 or so years, during which <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/ndp-metropolitan-rail-10-years-since.html">better plans that seek to untangle the loop</a> have been produced. The reason why I say rediscovered is that because concepts like direct and efficient through-routing were <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_Loop">well understood and proposed in 1929</a> but forgotten for 80 years. <br /><br />Other cities (eg Sydney) also built city circles but it's unlikely this retarded the usefulness of the rail network for diverse trips anywhere like Melbourne's did. Besides Sydney has other tricks up its sleeve including an increasingly polycentric network with suburban connection points. Generally speaking though cities should avoid building Melbourne-style CBD rail loops and instead use other configurations to provide the coverage extensions and core capacity enhancements they need. <p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixDoPCIfA06gfj_KkrwnuoR6eNXAF-6_V1u-AJqUcMJPC-Wo8kW9b8PuHRa2AOxujOnX-m09foA-JRIh8IDQhaSCfMY8y7wkmdHEpxPy-4O1cw3xiPc6hrTm7SVPE06hOVNXez4fqQmv3P487rmjipdr6Hv4in5W6eswA9sub4LbYcetXruz3J/s616/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="431" data-original-width="616" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixDoPCIfA06gfj_KkrwnuoR6eNXAF-6_V1u-AJqUcMJPC-Wo8kW9b8PuHRa2AOxujOnX-m09foA-JRIh8IDQhaSCfMY8y7wkmdHEpxPy-4O1cw3xiPc6hrTm7SVPE06hOVNXez4fqQmv3P487rmjipdr6Hv4in5W6eswA9sub4LbYcetXruz3J/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Through lines</span></b><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This is where it starts to get good. Through lines are direct, fast, legible and efficient. They support efficient transport not just from the suburbs to the CBD but between densifying inner suburbs too. This gives trains a speed edge over driving as there's no slowness caused by passing through the CBD or driving the extra distance to a bypass. There is no train reversing or backtracking in the central area so frequency and capacity can be high. Ideally demand is reasonably balanced in both directions to limit the need to terminate trains in the CBD. It is also desirable that branching is kept to a minimum but if it has to happen then both branches should have similar demand and be free of single track sections to preserve reliability. Avoiding sharing with faster regional and/or freight trains is also desirable to provide both high and even frequencies during peak times. <br /><br />The main problem, as anyone in Brisbane or Perth knows, with a through line is that it does not cover the CBD as well as a loop might. However the solution is not to build a geometrically and operationally inefficient loop but to add through line pairs on new corridors that (a) provide needed coverage, (b) boost core capacity and (c) intersect with other lines to provide a network, while otherwise being reasonably operationally isolated to minimise knock-on delays. Equally important is that all corridors, whether existing or new, operate at high frequency to facilitate said interchange. <br /><br />A single pair of through lines cannot serve more than two (or at most three) suburban lines if you want each to run at high frequency. To overcome this you either add another pair through the same location or (preferably) add another pair somewhere else. The latter is the better approach where you can increase coverage by adding one or more new stations unique to the new pair. However good interchange at one or more points on the existing network is required for connectivity.<br /><br />Melbourne's Metro Tunnel will soon provide extra capacity and connectivity of this type. It's a big project so we can't expect something like it to be built every few years. However we can gets many of the benefits by starting to reform the rest of the network with more lines operating as efficient cross-city through services. A start could be made by reforming operations on the cross-city group to provide Metro Tunnel style frequency, legibility and reliability on the Newport - South Yarra axis. After that the worst sins of the City Loop need to be undone by splitting it as proposed as an <a href="https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/40477/MT-Business-Case-Feb-2016-APPENDIX-01.PDF">add-on option in the Metro Tunnel Business Case</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">In a sense this is 'back to the future'; all these would transition rail from being a suburbs - CBD peak commuter service to a higher capacity, more connected and more versatile 7 day network nearer to <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/tt-180-melbournes-forgotten-frequent.html">what existed in 1939</a> than runs now. <br /><br />As for other cities, Perth has had two through line pairs ever since the new Joondalup and Armadale lines were connected in the 1990s, with this remaining when Joondalup connected to the new Mandurah line instead. Brisbane only really still has one through trunk (accommodating too many lines) though this will change with Cross River Rail which will also add eastern CBD coverage. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUB6888CPVIM-eHFfvw-odxBhMIYpp4_8YhclTdh9fjTM5ZSoQLCKEMgXQLwMQorig6BsuddWqpfspQtXT7vYeMcAYWvkF-I0xgBqQEy1fYCnkT_UfeYscnPLg_3MROJOGAaclFkPx0Z4cFdK-znuHj5rfG98iGQl68OuksLZliVARyDb2Ev8q/s516/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="429" data-original-width="516" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUB6888CPVIM-eHFfvw-odxBhMIYpp4_8YhclTdh9fjTM5ZSoQLCKEMgXQLwMQorig6BsuddWqpfspQtXT7vYeMcAYWvkF-I0xgBqQEy1fYCnkT_UfeYscnPLg_3MROJOGAaclFkPx0Z4cFdK-znuHj5rfG98iGQl68OuksLZliVARyDb2Ev8q/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Multi-centric</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">You get this with metro systems internationally but the ability to make circumferential trips on suburban rail does not exist outside Sydney. Perth will be the next city to gain a minor circumferential capability when the Thornlie line gets extended to Cockburn Central. Then it will be Melbourne's turn when the Suburban Rail Loop opens. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">For the foreseeable future the vast majority of circumferential public transport will be by bus, with Sydney, Melbourne and Perth the only capitals with at least semi-premium bus routes for this. Still, in a big growing city some form of fast and frequent orbital transport fully separated from cars will be as much of a game changer for its metropolitan transport as going from stub to Loop is for the CBD area or either of the first two to through lines will be for the inner suburbs. This is something that not all Suburban Rail Loop opponents have necessarily grasped with some critics being reluctant to put out their own proposals (which also won't be cheap if they're any good). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXmbxgzUwoP4-8hiQbQHs1fpP79q6qwmaCGMLW5TB1KFuYQ6a9MZRoboEBsPHnas5bnvsQnuagmHsbf2xkwvz13vldeV3gO2wzI4_gX6M5IqofNxpZEjo29grdoZ9MgVN1ox4dBc4M7feEkX6S3eCwAbG42Fb6-Q84ghvQ7KvjkvpVUKkkmAbM/s610/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="610" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXmbxgzUwoP4-8hiQbQHs1fpP79q6qwmaCGMLW5TB1KFuYQ6a9MZRoboEBsPHnas5bnvsQnuagmHsbf2xkwvz13vldeV3gO2wzI4_gX6M5IqofNxpZEjo29grdoZ9MgVN1ox4dBc4M7feEkX6S3eCwAbG42Fb6-Q84ghvQ7KvjkvpVUKkkmAbM/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Conclusion</b></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Melbourne's City Loop had some benefits but the configuration chosen proved an expensive time-wasting diversion. For decades it distracted us from building more connective networks such as could be achieved from a series of bidirectional through line pairs that connect (for passengers) at well-designed interchange stations. Its basic assumption - that of rail being for white collar Hoddle grid commuters and providing a second class service for everyone else - was already fading in the 2000s, with the pandemic and more working from home finishing it off more recently. <br /><br />Although its operations are still not satisfactorily consistent nor reliable, the Frankston - Newport cross-city group was the first real challenge to this mentality when it was created about 10 years ago. The next challenge will be the Metro Tunnel, that being free of the mid-line split at Flinders St, should familiarise Melburnians with a new operating culture. If done properly I think people will like it, leading to pressure to cost-effectively modernise the rest of the network in a similar manner. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_26.html">More Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here</a></b></span><br /><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-5871687805283229212023-12-19T04:08:00.002+11:002023-12-19T04:26:56.948+11:00TT 186: Melbourne bus routes without Sunday service - unique portions<p>A quick plot of Melbourne bus routes without Sunday service. Map shows unique portions only, ie most routes are longer than shown but may overlap sections of other routes. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4UrXoLUhARsrMvOxiKB7Az0-HYVv5dGkyeZ1Hl1ArxiF0luPbMWNppMR586XXUTmh-accXnJw8H7koyoyV6WLP3ls_XKIr-edHI-sw_W828ioc-W0hGS5lJ-TEhAN6pSUIZARvfHOpSNrCcP8ol8jNFW4mEuJ9I1V8chYmBkH1iwtR5o7H9qP/s676/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4UrXoLUhARsrMvOxiKB7Az0-HYVv5dGkyeZ1Hl1ArxiF0luPbMWNppMR586XXUTmh-accXnJw8H7koyoyV6WLP3ls_XKIr-edHI-sw_W828ioc-W0hGS5lJ-TEhAN6pSUIZARvfHOpSNrCcP8ol8jNFW4mEuJ9I1V8chYmBkH1iwtR5o7H9qP/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">A more detailed interactive map appears </span><a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1Ukhjx4WnOKg1VVtm_K66M-dTSf8zErA&usp=sharing" style="text-align: left;">here</a><span style="text-align: left;">. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Concentrations of non-Sunday routes form an arc from Melbourne's middle western, northern and eastern suburbs. There are also clusters in the south-east around Dandenong, the outer east around Croydon/Lilydale and some others around Frankston. <br /><br />A lot of this is historical accident - there have only been sporadic attempts to correct high patronage or connectivity potential routes that the otherwise large scale MOTC 'minimum hours' upgrade program of 2006 - 2010 left off. Particular concentrations of high usage but underserved routes are found around Dandenong while high connectivity potential routes are the circumferential routes across Melbourne's inner/middle north and east. <br /><br />The longest lines aren't necessarily the routes that need 7 day service most due to these being in semi-rural or industrial areas. But the map can still be helpful if you consider routes that serve major destinations, areas of high social needs and/or which have high productivity on the days they do run. And which could provide key cross-suburban links that would otherwise require long train or tram trips into the CBD. <br /><br />Conspicuous examples include 503, 506, 536, 542, 546, 548, 609, 612, 800, 802/804, 844, 885 and a few more. Then there are routes with very short unique portions but which nevertheless link key weekend destinations like shopping centres. These are the likes of 468 and 549 that hardly show on the map if at all. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Another cluster of routes are in the outer east and south-east. Their catchment is mixed, with some low density. Still a basic minimum-standards type 7 day service would be appropriate. Most notable examples include 772, 675, 680 and 689. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I listed the 13 routes that most deserved Sunday service <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/08/timetable-tuesday-36-thirteen-neglected.html">back in 2019</a>. I discussed cost effective upgrades, based on more recent data <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">here</a> and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/un-147-10-super-cheap-bus-boosts-for.html">here</a>. Weekend and particularly Sunday buses are a proven patronage winner, with more and more bus routes recording <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/un-160-where-are-melbournes-productive.html">higher passenger productivity on weekends than weekdays</a>. And the costs are relatively low as weekend upgrades typically involve working the existing fleet harder. </p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/11/timetable-tuesday-50-index-to-them-all.html">Index to Timetable Tuesday items here</a></b></span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-20210286559714619292023-12-14T09:18:00.006+11:002023-12-14T09:46:43.440+11:00UN 167: How much time and money can we save if we straightened our bus routes?<div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN2fuimZ3ox9GRTohKr3HDyOCxGial6D8MxW4Z-BT5xVqqfufO2alk124y77-q9jOdy3Hw5KMbHKsCh5IFp6XR-BKM5w_MnLZ683ieQxIpZ66FYVC4xLA5FqAeGZGVR2ytIhGmEofeOZwuNkQDU48dgvObAHZWBqk1Cz5Km-dWdSyPqY7g3fRa/s520/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="520" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN2fuimZ3ox9GRTohKr3HDyOCxGial6D8MxW4Z-BT5xVqqfufO2alk124y77-q9jOdy3Hw5KMbHKsCh5IFp6XR-BKM5w_MnLZ683ieQxIpZ66FYVC4xLA5FqAeGZGVR2ytIhGmEofeOZwuNkQDU48dgvObAHZWBqk1Cz5Km-dWdSyPqY7g3fRa/w400-h382/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>Time is money. Waste it and you waste money. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Plus opportunities for higher patronage because faster transit delivers the triple benefits of higher speed, higher frequency and higher farebox recovery. <br /><br />One of the reasons why Melburnians prefer trams over buses is that although neither in mixed traffic is particularly fast, trams are at least straight, with most routes typically only having one or two major bends.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whereas buses, even on straight corridors, often have indirect sections (eg pulling into station or shopping centre interchanges) that waste valuable vehicle, driver and passenger time. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We wouldn't have this problem if we built stations and shopping centres with their entrances right on main roads. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But we didn't and we do. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">A Glen Waverley example</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Back in the 1960s the Glen Waverley line was shortened and the station rebuilt to allow for expanded commuter parking west of Springvale Rd. Back then bus routes were very localised and there wasn't a continuous route along Springvale Rd. That was to come later when the <a href="https://bcsv.org.au/vm/melbourne-private-bus-routes-until-1990-800-903/">888 route was created</a>, with this, along with 889, becoming through routes between Nunawading and Chelsea. This was so popular that this became one of two corridors chosen for the SmartBus pilot project in 2002. There were further service improvements and a single route number when this became part of the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/08/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_7.html">902 orbital in 2010</a>. <br /><br />The busiest part of the 902 orbital is between Nunawading and Springvale South where it can carry standing loads. This is particularly so on weekends due to 30 minute gaps between buses <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1723802658082058263">despite high demand</a>. <br /><br />Springvale and Glen Waverley stations feed a lot of passengers to the 902 bus but there is a significant proportion of passengers who make through trips. Whereas the bus does not deviate off Springvale Rd to serve Nunawading and Springvale stations, it needs to for Glen Waverley station due to the station now being away from Springvale Rd as shown below. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIhN04MHdxXw5UFiztmRyGMfh9qHoIrtD3CAx4qT4YJmKvdKqcTeVOESSzdyt-llzXx09oZYp6cwqoxcATPQno0olj1huUQgQEnKF-ckT_yp-pfdMCUnN0MLHZlAOho4r18_HHQ-fD_elZoKy_IJKcWW9UOjBeG3DQbvbLUeEAkG1WRjOVyoF/s495/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="495" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIhN04MHdxXw5UFiztmRyGMfh9qHoIrtD3CAx4qT4YJmKvdKqcTeVOESSzdyt-llzXx09oZYp6cwqoxcATPQno0olj1huUQgQEnKF-ckT_yp-pfdMCUnN0MLHZlAOho4r18_HHQ-fD_elZoKy_IJKcWW9UOjBeG3DQbvbLUeEAkG1WRjOVyoF/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>The need to deviate into Glen Waverley bus interchange adds three extra turning movements and more stops at traffic lights. <br /><br />All this waiting, turning and backtracking adds to bus run times. Let's say it's a (conservative) 5 minutes added per trip. Multiply that by the number of trips on a week and minutes soon turn into hours. For example: <br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">M-F: 137 trips x 5 min = 685 min = 11.4 hours</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Sat: 76 trips x 5 min = 380 min = 6.3 hours</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Sun: 58 trips x 5 min = 290 min = 4.8 hours<br /><br />This adds to over 68 bus and driver hours per week, or roughly 3400 hours per year. If you assume $100 - 150 per bus operating hour then the extra annual operating cost is in the $400 - 500k range. And this doesn't include a. the foregone fare revenue lost from those who might use the bus but don't because it's too slow and b. passengers' own time. The latter is especially overlooked even though respect for passengers' time is critical for any effective public transport system. <br /><br />While unforeseen then, the 1960s decision to shorten the Glen Waverley line and move the station away from Springvale Rd was a mistake that ended up making Glen Waverley's most used bus route slower and less direct than it should have been.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">We're not necessarily smarter today </span></b><br /><br />Unfortunately bad design choices with regards to station location continue today, with the rule that stations should be near (and preferably straddle) major cross-streets to maximise their catchment not always being followed. For example the LXRP rebuilt Edithvale station further away from its main intersecting cross road than it should have been. That put the station further from the 902 bus and reduced connectivity to homes and services on Edithvale Rd. Bonbeach is further from the local shops while the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zep26UhNyxQ">walk between trains and buses (particularly 903, Mentone's busiest route) is much longer at the rebuilt Mentone</a> than it used to be. As for the future, Metro-SRL connectivity at proposed Suburban Rail Loop stations like Southland <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/11/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_19.html">risks being poor</a> so that is one to watch given that poor connectivity could make SRL fail. <br /><br />Luckily there are good examples that should be more widely known. Interchange arrangements at stations like Ormond and Nunawading combine speed (with buses not pulling off their main route) and good no-cross connectivity from station platforms to bus stops on both sides of the road. Good interchange arrangements also exist elsewhere, with Perth's mid-freeway stations on the Joondalup and Mandurah lines being significantly better for bus connectivity than our equivalent at Williams Landing. The new south side bus interchange at Tarneit should save some worthwhile time for some routes, although the area continues to suffer due to the shopping centre's distance from the station. These all provide learning opportunities that should be applied whenever a station or bus interchange is added or rebuilt. <br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Opportunities elsewhere</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Glen Waverley example above dealt with only one bus route at one interchange. Some interchanges, like Box Hill, Chadstone Shopping Centre and Monash University, are bigger with more bus movements per day. Even if only 2 minutes per trip average can be shaved off then the operational savings could be millions of dollars per year. This could be ploughed back into improved hours or frequency, allowing further service, connectivity and fare revenue gains.<br /><br />Melbourne has the habit of ignoring cheap connectivity upgrades while also proposing mega-projects to fix them. Even though fixing connectivity without the mega-projects could be done sooner and with better value for money. <br /><br />For example many of the speed advantages of the proposed Caulfield - Rowville 'trackless tram' would be realised (for a fraction of the cost) if we kept the 900 bus on Princes Hwy and didn't deviate it into Chadstone and arguably Oakleigh station. Local travel for the latter could instead be handled through improved 7 day service on routes like 800, 802, 804, 862 and 903 along with other cost-effective local bus reform. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />To summarise, time is money. The benefits to both network operations and passengers are immense if we were better at monitoring bus slow points and made road and interchange reforms accordingly. And made fast direct connectivity the top priority when it comes to station location and design. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_26.html">Other Useful Network items are here</a></b></span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-2944995706223199822023-12-07T18:52:00.008+11:002023-12-08T08:46:15.638+11:00UN 166: Time to revive bus reform (Five reform steps for the north and east)<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG5bfAVMXsCeEmxE6uq8whUHN1IoVbl1FeiYFAlOTDzaynFFOVeY5wzwBgly7FT-ciXXRtyK-voEYa_cMawy6QbUeMk8PCX_M0xtAdbQm3t1vP1R0IabfaLCYxvNyx9r327b3Xg1CyW-vDFn1cKXiEzvexGQ4SXfdalI9aAA_9Sip-oEPdwiiA/s444/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="444" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG5bfAVMXsCeEmxE6uq8whUHN1IoVbl1FeiYFAlOTDzaynFFOVeY5wzwBgly7FT-ciXXRtyK-voEYa_cMawy6QbUeMk8PCX_M0xtAdbQm3t1vP1R0IabfaLCYxvNyx9r327b3Xg1CyW-vDFn1cKXiEzvexGQ4SXfdalI9aAA_9Sip-oEPdwiiA/w400-h254/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />Bus network reform seems to have taken a back seat lately. Zero emissions buses and franchising appear to have the limelight. While important in their own ways, they are peripheral to the 'main game' for the bus network. That is whether its routes and timetables benefit the most number of users, and through this, the general community. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Bus Plan on the rocks?</span></b></div><p style="text-align: justify;">Many hoped the 2021 Bus Plan would revive interest in bus services and reform. While some good things happened it hasn't exactly got off to a cracking pace. And 2023 wasn't the plan's finest year. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">For example, partly because it lacked a specific implementable program, the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-24-state-budget-special-what-do.html">May 2023 state budget gave it short shrift with little new funding for bus services</a>. This caused me to <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/bus-plan-turns-two-still-alive.html">query its health</a> in June. October saw it lose its originator and chief ministerial advocate in Ben Carroll. By November Bus Plan's status within DTP slumped so low that it received <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1721082888861712542">no mention in its 2022-2023 annual report</a> and was <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/search?q=Victoria%27s%20Bus%20Plan&size=n_10_n">no longer accessible on the revamped DTP website</a>. <br /><br />We are also still awaiting the 'Bus Reform Implementation Plan' that was to give meat to the rather thin bones in 2021's 'plan for a plan'. The nearest we have to a hint of what's in store is the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/09/un-137-bus-network-reviews-coming-to.html">major bus network reviews for north and north-east Melbourne announced in September 2022</a>. The last progress update the public got on those was <a href="https://engage.vic.gov.au/project/busreform/updates">6 months ago</a>. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: medium;">IV's Fast, frequent and fair</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">More so than DTP lately, Infrastructure Victoria has <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/07/ivs-bus-reform-community-research.html">pursued bus network reform with gusto</a>. It's published several papers in the last two years. Their latest, <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/project/fast-frequent-and-fair-how-buses-can-better-connect-melbourne/">Fast, frequent and fair: how buses can better connect Melbourne</a>, came out only yesterday. It draws on numerous references, including many <i>Melbourne on Transit</i> items. There's some wonderful maps that show service hours and frequency inequalities across Melbourne. And there's ideas for reformed bus networks in parts of Melbourne's north and east, fitting within DTP's review agenda above. <br /><br />Recommendation 8 regrettably perpetuates IV's fetish with modal fares despite these making politically acceptable bus network reform harder. They should have instead stuck to making short and/or off-peak trips cheaper relative to longer trips while avoiding modal penalties. I'd also have picked some different corridors for the proposed BRT routes. Some, like their one from Mernda, duplicate trains and a east-west corridor would have been better. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Overall though <i>Fast, frequent and fair</i> is a very good paper that the government should sit up and take notice of. In conjunction with rail frequency upgrades and some small tram extensions it would give Melbourne an excellent public transport network suitable for far more trips than currently. And, as the IV report reminds us, bus reform is extremely cost-effective and can generate very strong benefit/cost ratios. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Where might revived bus service reform happen? </span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">DTP nominated Melbourne's north and north-east over a year ago. While arguably lower priorities for service than high needs areas like Dandenong and growth areas in the west and north, the area has <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">more than its fair share of complex, unreformed and even over-serviced routes</a>. While DTP hasn't released anything specific on what a reformed northern suburbs bus network might look like, others have. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Examples include IV's <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Fast-Frequent-Fair-how-buses-can-better-connect-Melbourne.pdf">Fast, frequent and fair</a> optimised network for the north-east (Fig 13) and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/07/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_91.html">Networking the North</a> from the Victorian Transport Action Group. The latter is the more detailed but reforms were divided into 26 potentially independent packages to allow a staged implementation. My recent list of <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">cost-effective bus upgrades</a> also presented some ideas for the north. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Today I'll list five steps for potential bus reform in IV's north-east bus reform study area. This is an area roughly between Brunswick/Merri Creek in the west and La Trobe University/Mernda in the east. Or the cities of Darebin and Whittlesea, though there'll inevitably be some overflows.<br /><br />I'll first list the simplest steps, ie the bottom rungs of the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">bus reform pyramid</a>, and then move to more advanced changes that would really transform the network. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeM8e5C7dksIqzYG1sUU1bc0PuRFCsTZE9TWPX8F20YbfosSjD7zwMYV7ALVW_aHJL2SsLkToRd_H5R5lOWyzJdSBA4utMi92ydiWsGVGuLCxA1Cmrj6lw2eha8l59cDio8UxavdH9yjrShhRxZqzeMpNmHxcjuKrTatCvp_zn5WVMfhDK8aNW/s574/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="508" data-original-width="574" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeM8e5C7dksIqzYG1sUU1bc0PuRFCsTZE9TWPX8F20YbfosSjD7zwMYV7ALVW_aHJL2SsLkToRd_H5R5lOWyzJdSBA4utMi92ydiWsGVGuLCxA1Cmrj6lw2eha8l59cDio8UxavdH9yjrShhRxZqzeMpNmHxcjuKrTatCvp_zn5WVMfhDK8aNW/w400-h354/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Step 1: Fix complex holiday-related timetable oddities</b> </span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Catching a bus in Melbourne is a chancy exercise, especially on weekends and public holidays. You don't necessarily know what timetable will run or even if the service will operate at all. This is because the MOTC program to standardise service arrangements made a good start but was never completed, even on some quite important routes. This can be addressed with the following low-cost upgrades:<br /><br />a. Abolish reduced service summer timetables on Routes 503 and 506 so the same service runs all year. Many more routes used to have reduced summer timetables but no longer do. Hence finishing the job off involves only a few extra service hours per year to make the network free of summer timetables. <br /><br />b. Introduce public holiday service to all routes with Saturday service. Currently this is a <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-public-holiday-gamble-on-melbourne.html">mish-mash with no logic in what runs and what doesn't</a>. While most routes that run Saturdays run that timetable on public holidays, there is a substantial minority of routes that operate Saturdays but not public holidays. The consequence of the latter is confusion amongst passengers. This is exacerbated by PTV frequently getting timetables and communications wrong as arrangements are too complex for even them to understand. Service may also be out of kilter with demand (eg some shopping centre routes not running on Boxing Day eg 549) while some neighbourhoods (eg parts of Reservoir on the 558) <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/tt-163-waiting-for-days-hunt-for.html">may not get buses for days on end over Christmas and Easter</a>. <br /><br />Northern area timetables that need standardised holiday arrangements include 506, 526, 538, 549, 550, 558 and 559. Routes 503, 512, 536 and 548 are close to the study area and run by operators that serve it so should also be upgraded to simplify rostering and communication. Indeed the same could be said for Melbourne generally as doing only 15 more routes would fix this problem everywhere and the low cost makes it worth it. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Step 2: 7 day upgrades and minimum standards upgrades</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Many routes in Melbourne's north don't run 7 days or finish early at night. In other cases there may not be any Saturday afternoon service, reflecting pre-1980s shop trading hours. That limits the usefulness of buses for many work and leisure trips. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Routes in the study area lacking 7 day service include: 350, <b>389</b>, <b>503</b>, <b>506</b>, <b>526</b>, <b>546</b>, 548, <b>549</b>, 550, 551, 558, <b>559 </b>and 609. Those in <b>bold</b> are relatively simple routes that could be upgraded on their current alignment, or with only very minor straightening (see Step 3). In addition Route 251 runs 7 days but needs a minor increase in operating hours to bring it to minimum service standards. <br /><br />The other routes have major problems meaning you might only upgrade them after other reforms (assuming they survive at all). For instance 350, 550 and 551 have relatively little unique coverage while 548 and (especially) 558 have complex reversals and weak termini. These may require reform in conjunction with other routes to prevent the issue of upgrading a route's timetable only to delete or greatly modify it a short time later. 609 has almost all these problems and very few weekday trips. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Step 3: Timetable harmonisation with trains and minor straightening </span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The study area is full of bus routes with <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/06/timetable-tuesday-76-our-least-train.html">timetables that don't evenly meet trains</a>. For example around Reservoir/Epping it is common for buses every ~23 minutes to not meet trains every 20 minutes. Example non-harmonised routes include 517, 526, 548, 552, 553, 555, 556, 558, 566, 567 and others. Then there is the 577 which sought to feed trains by operating its two buses per hour at an irregular interval. <br /><br />Some of these are very complex routes (including indirectness, overlaps and weak termini) that need other reforms too. Out of the list the most promising to get to every 20 minutes are 517 (potentially shorten to operate Northland - Greensborough only with other arrangements for St Helena) and 556 (remove Derby St loop). There is a chance that the latter may free up enough time for an improvement on another route such as 555. <br /><br />Route 552 retains an archaic weekend timetable with high Saturday morning frequency (15 min), a low Saturday afternoon frequency (30 min) and a non-clockface 45 min Sunday frequency, none harmonising with trains. It may be an overall better outcome to aim for a 20 min all day Saturday frequency along with an improved Sunday frequency (even if 40 min) and a potential stronger northern terminus eg Keon Park Station. <br /><br />Harmonisation is desirable for the other routes but may be best done with wider reforms, some of which are discussed later, to maximise efficiency. <br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Step 4: 10 strong 7 day east-west Connector or Rapid routes</b></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">These involve weekend frequency increases, improved operating hours (IV suggests 6am - 11pm) and stronger termini. Most upgrades are operating hours only, so do not increase peak fleet requirements. Candidate routes include: </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>390:</b> Longer operating hours and service boosted to every 20 min 7 days to provide an efficient link across the outer north harmonised with trains. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>506:</b> All the abovementioned upgrades plus longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>508:</b> Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays). Review eastern terminus. This is a potential Rapid route with potential for the existing 15 min peak frequency to be operated all day. <br /><br /><b>510:</b> Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays). Potential extension to Heidelberg for a stronger eastern terminus, though this will increase the bus requirement. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>514:</b> Incorporates 513 trips with operating hours and weekend upgrades to provide 7 day 20 min service between Glenroy and Greensborough. Other arrangements should apply for Lower Plenty/Eltham portion of 513. The main benefit here would be a single simple route along Bell St along with upgraded weekend services. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>517:</b> Abovementioned split at Greensborough with portion to Northland with longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to reformed weekday service). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>561:</b> Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays) <br /><br /><b>565:</b> A new route created from the Greensborough - Lalor half of the very complex 566 but extending to Epping Plaza and potentially Wollert. Longer operating hours and every 20 min 7 days. An alternative could be IV's idea to reroute the 901 via this alignment but this would require a replacement route for McDonalds Rd. <br /><br /><b>570:</b> Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays). Examine scope for simplification at Plenty Rd end in conjunction with 564. <br /><br /><b>904:</b> A new Rapid route every 10 min formed from consolidating the existing 527 and 903 between Coburg and Heidelberg with an option for a new 903 La Trobe University connection from Doncaster via Heidelberg. While the most complex to implement out of this list its value for money would be high with the strongest likely patronage. More details on the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/11/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">904 Murray Rd Megabus here</a>. <br /><br />In addition to the above, Route 386 already has a 20 min combined frequency along its overlap with 387. However it could gain some extra Sunday - Thursday night trips (being the busier of the pair) to add to the network's versatility down The Lakes Boulevard and to provide night connections from the 86 tram. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Step 5: Up to 6 strong north-south Connector routes</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">These involve weekend frequency increases, improved operating hours (IV suggests 6am - 11pm) on existing routes. There are also some new routes that will require significant changes to the existing network for maximum efficiency. More radically maximum cost-effectiveness may require use of resources obtained by rationalising low usage or duplicative routes in the Greensborough/Eltham area. Candidate routes include: <br /><br /><b>356/357:</b> Upgrade both with longer hours and each route every 20 min 7 days for a 10 min combined frequency via Epping Rd. Commencing both at Epping should allow easier scheduling for a more even offset. Option exists to extend routes north to intersect with Route 390. <br /><br /><b>548:</b> La Trobe University - Camberwell route operating over longer hours and at least every 20 min 7 days. All trips would operate directly with Springthorpe estate served by a separate local route. <i>Networking the North</i> has a more ambitious version of this via Heidelberg that it calls the Route 550 with a potential extension as far south as Caulfield. This is a potential future Rapid route. <br /><br /><b>555:</b>Abovementioned upgrade to every 20 min plus longer hours and 20 min weekend frequency. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>556:</b> Abovementioned route simplification for better directness, upgrade to every 20 min plus longer hours and 20 min weekend frequency. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>567:</b> Reformed route extended north to La Trobe University and south to Hawthorn / Swinburne University via Chandler Hwy in conjunction with network reform west of Northland and replacement of 609. <i>Networking the North</i> calls this the Route 560 with more detail presented there. This is a potential Rapid route. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>NEW:</b> Reservoir - Epping. This would be a new Connector style route (ie every 20 min) serving Reservoir West and Edgars Rd, with the latter replacing the 357. This connects more people to Reservoir Station and enables reform of the existing 558 which can become a more direct east-west route from Reservoir to Campbellfield Shopping Centre and arguably onward to Glenroy merging with the existing 536. This would greatly improve connectivity to a lot of places from the west including La Trobe University which is accessible from Reservoir via the 301 shuttle. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Concept network maps</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Only show the 7 day Connector or better routes. Coverage type routes operating at lower frequencies are not shown. More discussion of what these might look like appear in <i>Networking the North, </i>noting that many potential combinations exist. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrb9hAFH15tvUJgUwqsCv3N9lsqLJhn8M5qCQhLfiq68C9uxuBloTU3gQt0pPCM921-6vE419kaLnsFAVrn4Uq-ih_o35S6FkrKaftMkBcQQUhWSyKJXmZLuXC-_l4Xf4ePvxAXqWOLfD2L-5FKBFZIxmr-bUxHZs1vWyuqPQEpoTiKtkQwDaS/s481/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="451" data-original-width="481" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrb9hAFH15tvUJgUwqsCv3N9lsqLJhn8M5qCQhLfiq68C9uxuBloTU3gQt0pPCM921-6vE419kaLnsFAVrn4Uq-ih_o35S6FkrKaftMkBcQQUhWSyKJXmZLuXC-_l4Xf4ePvxAXqWOLfD2L-5FKBFZIxmr-bUxHZs1vWyuqPQEpoTiKtkQwDaS/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZkjXp-Lc4tV073aJVR_BZYj2dyDjK2PiPJhwt5QAltNGjcMY4Y-dr5-3Tb_jbzlBepenGnFReZIREgbixcx4MiEE880K6mIHHP8254EFIBRR8-l7fiJw88afJQG8NM_022Ne420wg-Nqlpew17WCmHKNH4XnwBhX7xTwR1gWc-VKCDPfdRHKY/s467/temp1.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="467" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZkjXp-Lc4tV073aJVR_BZYj2dyDjK2PiPJhwt5QAltNGjcMY4Y-dr5-3Tb_jbzlBepenGnFReZIREgbixcx4MiEE880K6mIHHP8254EFIBRR8-l7fiJw88afJQG8NM_022Ne420wg-Nqlpew17WCmHKNH4XnwBhX7xTwR1gWc-VKCDPfdRHKY/s16000/temp1.PNG" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Resourcing and conclusion</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This reformed bus network for the cities of Darebin and Whittlesea will require additional funding, though some very simple changes (eg splitting 566) need not add service kilometres. The gains from it are however high, especially with regards to 7 day service, connectivity to major destinations and cross-Yarra service. This network is consistent with the aims of the IV report of improved directness, frequency and simplicity without it likely to be too controversial. Note again that it emphasises connector routes so I haven't discussed potential new growth area routes in the north that may be needed. <br /><br />Potential sources for resourcing trade-offs exist outside the review area, notably around Greensborough, Eltham and Diamond Creek where there are overlapping but not necessarily heavily used routes, including semi-rural segments of the 901 orbital. Within the study area there are routes like 350 that do not add significant unique coverage, the substantial overlap between 527 and 903, the terrible 553, the dead end 526 and the weak terminused 567. Also some areas like Bastings St Northcote and parts Heidelberg can have routes removed without sacrificing 400m coverage. Some might also query the service levels of routes like 382 and 555 that parallel tram or train lines and look at those for savings. Having said that the above steps are easily scalable to suit resources and priorities. <br /><br />Comments are appreciated and can be left below. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_26.html">More Useful Network items are here</a></b></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-31719422594302193392023-12-05T06:00:00.202+11:002023-12-05T09:55:07.749+11:00TT 185: Full on Sundays - Why Highpoint's 408 bus is leaving people behind<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFAex9aiKcgHPrGSiJLkwTKdVJVRxzMrAT7NWwKZDoD7iigXoHDZ5_JaFfWKJLHm97nxQJLNcMSAbBzIZx5bW4lnZf4LARObtg9uBkeys-41yWvYwY8pooQZeGT_Xw1uA0V_6Od6L2MAFmAeIwcNQ5ZI1-RQLhmxloqQr80B-UPJG5ElKgxVZK/s410/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="410" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFAex9aiKcgHPrGSiJLkwTKdVJVRxzMrAT7NWwKZDoD7iigXoHDZ5_JaFfWKJLHm97nxQJLNcMSAbBzIZx5bW4lnZf4LARObtg9uBkeys-41yWvYwY8pooQZeGT_Xw1uA0V_6Od6L2MAFmAeIwcNQ5ZI1-RQLhmxloqQr80B-UPJG5ElKgxVZK/s320/temp.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;">Notwithstanding the <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/contractors-and-consultants-victorian-public-service-spending">state auditor-general</a> finding that their <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1729753329654235222">portfolio's staffing payroll swelled by 85% in the three years from 2021/22</a> (the highest of any department and nearly triple the 29% state public service average), the Department of Transport and Planning, constrained by a strongly infrastructure-first government policy agenda, is <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/07/un-159-5-word-secret-to-faster-bus.html">rarely very responsive</a> when it comes to boosting bus and train services. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">It pretty much only happens when there's a sustained period of leaving people behind, with media, community or parental pressure often instrumental. And when funding appears <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/un-155-how-long-does-it-really-take-to.html">even minor changes can take years</a> with the 31 month gap between the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/past-budget-funded-service-upgrades.html">May 2021 budget funding for the Route 538 straightening</a> and <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/about-ptv/improvements-and-projects/bus-and-coach/faster-and-more-direct-travel-along-camp-road-in-broadmeadows/">December 2023 implementation</a> being an example. This isn't good if you want to grow network patronage and reap the benefits arising therefrom. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">A truly efficiency-minded benefit-maximising agency also ought to be playing a stronger defensive game than DTP currently is. For example <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/how-much-is-bus-fare-evasion-really.html">fare revenue protection appears weak</a> and unproductive but overserved bus routes can retain unreformed timetables for years. Both are to the detriment of <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">potential cost-effective bus reform</a> some of which fund themselves with only a tiny one-off capital expenditure needed for implementation. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">That's a long introduction to today's example of a recurring and indeed increasing need. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Back in August <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/un-160-where-are-melbournes-productive.html">I mentioned that more and more bus routes</a> had higher passenger boardings per hour on weekends than on weekdays. This was because weekend usage was growing but bus timetables rarely reflected this. For example it's not uncommon for key bus routes to operate at half, one-third or even one-quarter their weekday frequency on weekends, especially Sundays. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">This pattern is particularly prevalent on bus routes to major shopping centres despite these being major weekend destinations and employment sources. I looked at Chadstone <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/un-161-top-priority-bus-upgrades-for.html">here</a> and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/chadstone-saturday-afternoon-buses-25.html">here</a>. <br /><br />Highpoint Shopping Centre is another example. It has the 82 tram but this is less convenient to the shopping centre than the bus interchange with seven routes. Two of these routes don't run Sundays and one that does (215) finishes early. The others are typically every 40 or 60 minutes on Sundays, with only 1 of the 7 (the 223) operating every 20 minutes or better all week thanks to <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/09/timetable-tuesday-133-907-biggest.html">some 2021 upgrades</a>.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSyeVxyy6ILG29bzjLbXqjCbgcajZMVShk_uwIzKpR-OHS8hQc1RXzI89qyBkkGPJA6kikmkpgLog7C1j3aVFETdI2QVPyRlaodtSiU7no24q4mxz_uwmDUXCcJLJxbMjo1m8cS3YZV8azH-LI7s0cmzjePhfQZbYTKlrD3F7BtZgHZiykD8Va/s534/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="351" data-original-width="534" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSyeVxyy6ILG29bzjLbXqjCbgcajZMVShk_uwIzKpR-OHS8hQc1RXzI89qyBkkGPJA6kikmkpgLog7C1j3aVFETdI2QVPyRlaodtSiU7no24q4mxz_uwmDUXCcJLJxbMjo1m8cS3YZV8azH-LI7s0cmzjePhfQZbYTKlrD3F7BtZgHZiykD8Va/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;">The last two columns are particularly telling. Most trains and trams have a Sunday : M-F wait ratio of close to 1. That is waiting times midday Sunday are not much more than midday on weekdays. However buses are much more variable, even though these are the main public transport mode to major shopping centres which are busiest then. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Most notable for Highpoint is the 408, with 60 minute maximum waits on Sunday versus 20 minutes on other days, or a 3:1 ratio. 406 is not far behind with 40 minute Sunday headways, or a 2:1 ratio versus the other days. The ratio is infinite for 407 or 468 as these don't run Sundays. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Finally there's the Sunday passenger boardings per hour column. This was based on August - November 2022 productivity data obtained from DTP. Both 406 and 408 are strong routes all week but have highest average loadings on Sundays since their frequency then falls off much more sharply than ridership. 406 and 408 Sunday numbers are also strong on a metropolitan-basis and would remain so if their Sunday frequency was doubled as <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/un-160-where-are-melbournes-productive.html">I recommended here</a>. <br /><br />So much for the numbers, what do high loadings on the 408, the route with the biggest mismatch between Sunday patronage and service provision, look like in practice? For the answer, watch this video (from 26 November 2023).<br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/H991ZL5B7xs" width="320" youtube-src-id="H991ZL5B7xs"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">The above video is not a one-off, with <a href="https://twitter.com/NormanHermant/status/1728679169398333566">other accounts of full buses leaving intending passengers behind on other trips</a> (notably the 6:11pm). Hence a strong case exists for added Sunday trips on the 408 with Route 406 also well deserving of similar improvements. This will require extra funding given that 408's operator (CDC) already has the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/11/un-165-bus-upgrades-for-broke-government.html">most efficient network of the major bus operators</a> with little obvious 'fat' to trim thanks to previous reform. <br /><br />The benefits of a 408 boost include not just Highpoint but also Sunshine (for which the 408 is an important feeder from two directions), Sunshine Hospital (whose only bus is the 408) and St Albans (with a large and diverse low income high bus using catchment). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Longer term bus network reform for Highpoint could include consolidating the 223 with the 406 for a <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/07/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">simpler 7 day turn-up-and-go Footscray - Highpoint route</a> as well as <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/10/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_01333148708.html">reforming the 903 to provide Highpoint with an east-west SmartBus</a> (to compensate for the promised but never delivered <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/07/un-134-stage-4-smartbuses-we-didnt-get.html">Blue Orbital</a>). </div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">With the need now established, the question now is whether minister Williams and the government respond with targeted bus service improvements and network reform. The 2024 state budget would be a great opportunity to revive interest in better bus services after <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-24-state-budget-special-what-do.html">getting little in the 2023 state budget</a>, Bus Plan notwithstanding. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And, with such high recent growth in the portfolio's staffing establishment, it's over to DTP Secretary Paul Younis to ensure that planning and delivery capability for improved services is as high as it can be to maximise efficiency and responsiveness. </div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/11/timetable-tuesday-50-index-to-them-all.html">Index to other Timetable Tuesday items</a></span></b></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-21128798220083543342023-11-30T12:30:00.004+11:002023-11-30T12:30:33.319+11:00Chadstone Saturday afternoon buses (25 Nov 2023)<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There's no train station, driving doesn't scale up due to the number of people wanting to go there and the buses, including Route 800, can have 2 hour gaps or not run at all. </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Welcome to weekend travel at Chadstone shopping centre. </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While shoppers can avoid it those who work there aren't so lucky.
Key issues include a lack of bus priority, the design that adds kinks to through routes and, entirely within the responsibility for the state government to address, the very low service levels. </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This is particularly the case on weekends when Chadstone is at its busiest. No individual bus route has less than 30 minute maximum waits, not even the premium service SmartBuses. Typical waits on local routes are 40 to 60 minutes. That balloons out to 120 minutes or no service at all for routes that serve taken for granted 'safe' Labor seats like Mulgrave and Dandenong.
The video shown below was taken on Saturday 25 November 2023 between about 3 and 5:30pm, ie a popular time for people to be at Chadstone.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Dbp_HEW6nxI" width="320" youtube-src-id="Dbp_HEW6nxI"></iframe></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">More information about the Route 800 campaign for 7 day service can be found on the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Fix800Bus">#Fix800Bus Facebook page</a>. </p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-72934266043415682922023-11-28T05:00:00.031+11:002023-11-28T19:28:41.787+11:00How much is bus fare evasion really?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2Hlm281faiKy0xVLA5koIim4GF1e-0KVo5sPPxiFvOpqr41wMLNPpSgP9JZwdq-zuMJW5XPRuUHfjT4JLH4XN01DRAMVhEa-2f4uoeb7NZCDdrHyWevHuV0RsXTbWuFc_0qzZUyp5AFr2XLV7cO0qP7IGz8y5YkWtp3iE9ft_-_Rlj9N5kvqi/s448/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="448" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2Hlm281faiKy0xVLA5koIim4GF1e-0KVo5sPPxiFvOpqr41wMLNPpSgP9JZwdq-zuMJW5XPRuUHfjT4JLH4XN01DRAMVhEa-2f4uoeb7NZCDdrHyWevHuV0RsXTbWuFc_0qzZUyp5AFr2XLV7cO0qP7IGz8y5YkWtp3iE9ft_-_Rlj9N5kvqi/w400-h354/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">When you talk to people about improving bus services most people, including those who rarely ride them, are supportive. They readily agree that <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/11/tt-175-election-2022-make-all-transport.html">buses should run 7 days</a> or <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/10/introducing-fix800bus-alliance.html">main highway buses should be better than every 2 hours on Saturday afternoons</a>. <br /><br />A few others aren't so sure. Some cite buses running empty. Or note that 'hardly anyone touches on'. They might add that if people don't touch on then it's hard to justify more services. <br /><br />At the very least if few passengers pay the cost of adding trips is increased. This is because although <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/un-160-where-are-melbournes-productive.html">well-targeted service upgrades build ridership</a> the rise in fare revenue is less than it should be. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Low fare compliance may also raise the chance that <a href="https://twitter.com/NormanHermant/status/1726141292244312374">chronic</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NormanHermant/status/1728679169398333566">overcrowding</a>, including on hourly weekend buses that leave intending passengers behind, gets ignored. This could be for reasons including (i) the resulting poor quality data, (ii) DTP's lack of efficient demand responsive funding and processes to address crowding and possibly (iii) only a limited personal bus using culture amongst top executives. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVIVt_cZJQexHcx_A1qv4EkL1E591NinwoCTM6IaIvRshE2dCkvKhNBQHnEDSdlLIdlxh6DbZZzTzR-8jX8P6AGjy05EWRrKi3Aw8PuidwT-grrPUjbHHp3fo4qYcjCPpanR3nYzBeFPYfyoBB27YWtp0YSC85FJVVL2kV_uIv4Xt7jqDDpkFD/s615/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="523" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVIVt_cZJQexHcx_A1qv4EkL1E591NinwoCTM6IaIvRshE2dCkvKhNBQHnEDSdlLIdlxh6DbZZzTzR-8jX8P6AGjy05EWRrKi3Aw8PuidwT-grrPUjbHHp3fo4qYcjCPpanR3nYzBeFPYfyoBB27YWtp0YSC85FJVVL2kV_uIv4Xt7jqDDpkFD/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">In modern organisations what is not counted doesn't count. If low touch-on rates understate patronage then there won't be a data-driven trigger to increase service, especially without automatic passenger counters on all buses. Thus if data is bad then the message needs to reach government via other means including social media, citizen journalism and advocacy to get problems fixed. 'Barking dog-based transport planning' is a poor approach for a department of nearly 5000 people and a $560m payroll but may be necessary when expected 'collect data and respond' processes break down. <br /><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Attitudes to fare compliance</span></b><br /><br />Some passengers go out of their way to always pay their fare. Others try but give up if paying is made too difficult. Another group is influenced by what they see, so if they see many others not touching on then they won't either. Fare evasion can even become legitimised in some subcultures, such as was the case in inner suburbs about 25 years ago with trams (even amongst people who could afford to pay). Such social acceptance turns a behaviour into a habit and makes campaigns to change it less credible and effective. <br /><br />Are we now at the same stage with buses? <br /><br />We could be but let's first go back a bit. <br /><br />The seeds of the problem some have with myki on buses were sown more than a decade ago. An early (and I think wrong) decision under Labor was to specify disposable cardboard smartcards rather than simple paper tickets for short term travel. These had the benefit of being able to open myki barriers at stations without needing physical inspection by an attendant. But, having the antenna and chip of a full smartcard, short-term mykis were outrageously expensive to produce relative to a typical short distance 2 hour fare (in some cases then under $1 for concession holders). </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Short-term mykis <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2009/03/myki-in-action-some-pictures-from-trip.html">were used on Geelong buses during early public testing</a> but were one of the features understandably scrapped when the Baillieu government descoped myki. Thus even a casual trip required pre-purchase of a relatively expensive plastic myki card. This discouraged ridership amongst the honest and fostered evasion amongst the dishonest. Many of myki's problems for tourists and some of the impetus for the counterproductive CBD <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/12/expanding-cbd-free-tram-zone-dont-do-it.html">Free Tram Zone</a> stem from the non-availability of a good value convenient ticket option for spontaneous or casual users. <br /><br />What about COVID-19?</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Public transport usage (and thus fare revenue) on all modes took a big hit during the pandemic. Weekday peak train and tram patronage remains subdued but bus usage has recovered fastest, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/un-160-where-are-melbournes-productive.html">especially on weekends</a>. However new factors risk undermining bus fare compliance in the last few years. These include: </p><p style="text-align: justify;">* The falling number of passengers using periodical (myki pass) as opposed to spontaneous (myki money) payment options due to less 5 day commuting. Unlike myki money users, those using an activated myki pass would not be evading a fare if they sometimes did not touch on. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">* The pandemic era (and now permanent) removal of cash myki top-ups on buses has removed a widely accessible payment option, especially in suburbs with few myki outlets or train stations. <br /><br />* Bus drivers now being physically screened from passengers and unlikely to ask people to touch on, with the Labor government influenced by TWU advocacy over safety concerns. Unlike station PSOs, who typically work in pairs, bus drivers are on their own, are not particularly highly paid and commonly take a 'play it safe' attitude for their own safety. <br /><br />* The continued low chance of encountering Authorised Officers on buses, thus encouraging the calculating type of serial fare evader who remains ahead even after several fines per year. <br /><br />* The politically-driven $10 statewide fare cap, that by flattening the fare scales, make $5 short trips look punitively expensive, especially if a myki card also needs to be purchased ($11 total per adult). I've added this point because perceived fairness aids legitimacy and compliance. Flat fares are simple to understand but are widely viewed as less fair, especially for shorter trips (which are made by more people more often than longer trips). <br /><br />* Wider economic conditions including inflation, housing costs and <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-records-biggest-income-decline-in-the-developed-world-20231108-p5eijq">falling real incomes</a> especially for <a href="https://twitter.com/patbcaruana/status/1727120160304292120">those under 40</a>. These may make fare evasion tempting if it is easy and there is a low chance of getting caught. <br /><br />It's true that the government promotes some other payment options, including online and mobile phone myki top-up. However the latter requires an NFC chip that not all phones have. Fare payment will get easier once <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-public-transport-ticketing-contract">credit/debit card tapping on/off becomes possible</a>. But for now the above points may weaken compliance from those who find payment inconvenient, not what their friends do or easy to avoid. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>What DTP reports</b></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The above is the pessimistic view. What do the numbers say? DTP's <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/dtp-annual-report">2022-23 annual report</a> says that bus fare compliance was 96%, or 24 out of 25 passengers. That looks pretty high and would seem to validate current policies and administration. That high proportion is also likely near the point where throwing more resources into fare enforcement is unlikely to return its cost in added fare revenue. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKDce7dJW_bgnjr6GGhLCc_eAEenAEIOfiJDn8OTexXBYq44rsztxweoK8770rPZzw9K9XKC2khku-13duUJTtAduz4vFxSQFG_Q7NTD4tngG5eGd_2jRRN-dxxmHuBY2LuEb5FV5OKlDiV5wjAeXBmaPWfFQEMF-nfiWxatau1pMp0NJx3rI5/s733/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="733" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKDce7dJW_bgnjr6GGhLCc_eAEenAEIOfiJDn8OTexXBYq44rsztxweoK8770rPZzw9K9XKC2khku-13duUJTtAduz4vFxSQFG_Q7NTD4tngG5eGd_2jRRN-dxxmHuBY2LuEb5FV5OKlDiV5wjAeXBmaPWfFQEMF-nfiWxatau1pMp0NJx3rI5/w640-h365/temp.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Want to delve into those numbers more? You can do so via the <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/data-and-reporting/revenue-protection-and-fare-compliance/">revenue protection and fare compliance part of the PTV website</a>. There you can find fare compliance survey numbers and the Network Revenue Protection Plan for 2023. Of note is a big uptick for buses, with the reported 96% in October 2022 the highest in the data series. Having said that there's much more data volatility than for Metro train and trams, so I'd want to see more data points before concluding there's a real trend. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTyUfQsm5TknesyhpR50GUeYIbROI07UJdsxm-o-MGRC1yRtXY7O_FVr4uHmbhwXYXRnT87x0V3WNBnPB3aIUaAoZFQoqrS4DMc_tXXEjxZ_568bDZ8Y7Z6Do8btrwoy_w1EIrDEPynjcVqYIM2Ri_66VICxMmhj5lGpsYOrTOJtRUqctrWK5F/s540/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="458" data-original-width="540" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTyUfQsm5TknesyhpR50GUeYIbROI07UJdsxm-o-MGRC1yRtXY7O_FVr4uHmbhwXYXRnT87x0V3WNBnPB3aIUaAoZFQoqrS4DMc_tXXEjxZ_568bDZ8Y7Z6Do8btrwoy_w1EIrDEPynjcVqYIM2Ri_66VICxMmhj5lGpsYOrTOJtRUqctrWK5F/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;">What were they saying last year when the compliance numbers for buses was pretty dire? DTP appears to have removed the 2022 Network Revenue Protection plan from their website. But fortunately you can find it in this <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221018010105/https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/data-and-reporting/revenue-protection-and-fare-compliance/">archived Wayback Machine version</a> (direct <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221006163928/https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/assets/PTV-default-site/footer/data-and-reporting/Datasets/Revenue-protection-and-fare-compliance/2022-Network-Revenue-Protection-Plan.pdf">pdf link here</a>). The 2022 plan is worth reading as it had a bit to say about accommodating bus passengers who could previously top up with cash. <br /><br />It's important to get one thing straight first up. Fare compliance and touching on are different measures. Those who don't touch on are not necessarily evading a fare if they are travelling on some sort of periodical pass or, with myki money, have done prior travel and are still within their first two hours or have reached their daily cap. Thus the system could still achieve the claimed 96% fare compliance even if the touch on rate is lower. <br /><br />How much lower can the touch on rate be to support a 96% fare compliance? It depends on factors like the use of periodical type options (eg an activated myki pass as opposed to myki money) and people doing a lot of changing. If both these are low (likely for a lot of local off-peak bus trips) then the touch on rate will need to be much nearer to 96% than otherwise. <br /> </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">What's bus fare evasion really like?</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">You've just seen two very different impressions of the extent of fare evasion on Mebourne's buses. What might be dismissed as hearsay says it's very high. Whereas the 'official line' from DTP, complete with graphs and reports, says it is very low at 4%. <br /><br />My hypothesis is that the truth will be somewhere in between. That is more passengers than 'hardly anyone' will touch on. But also that significantly more than DTP's claimed 4% will not be fare compliant. <br /><br />The simple way to do a survey is to ride some buses and count the number of people boarding who touch on versus those who don't touch on. That gives the touch on rate. The more complex (and better) method is to check each passenger's ticket for compliance. DTP has that power. I do not. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Hence I went for the easier non-intrusive method of just counting touch ons. That won't give a statistic that can be directly compared to DTP's compliance figure. But it could put to bed some of the wilder claims. And if a low touch-on rate was observed then it could make a high claimed compliance rate like 96% seem unlikely. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">My testing involved taking trips, mostly in the south-east suburbs, to observe the proportion of boarding passengers who touched on. Here is what I saw: <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Test 1: 14/11/2023 5:30 am approx Route 902 from Chelsea to Mulgrave</b><br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><b>Validated / Total boardings 14/26 = 54%</b></span></p><p><b style="text-align: justify;">* Test 2: 22/11/2023 1:45 pm Route 902 from Chelsea to Mulgrave</b><br style="text-align: justify;" /><span style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Validated / Total boardings 21/53 = 40%</b></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Despite the above trip being before normal school finish time, the trip included a significant number of school students making local trips who did not touch on. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>* Test 3: 22/11/2023 2:59 pm Route 850 from Mulgrave to Dandenong North<br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Validated / Total boardings 3/50 = 6%</span></b></div></div><div dir="auto"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: justify;">About 90% of passengers on this trip were school students who did not touch on. It is possible that some had <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/tickets/myki/concessions-and-free-travel/children-and-students/school-students/">student myki passes</a> so were not fare evading despite them not touching on. </div><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Test 4: 22/11/2023 3:52 pm approx Route 800 from Dandenong to Springvale</b><br /><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Validated / Total boardings 3/9 = 33%</b><br /><br /><b>* Test 5: 22/11/2023 4:31 pm approx Route 902 from Springvale to Chelsea<br /><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Validated / Total boardings 7/15 = 47%</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Test 6:</b> <b>25/11/2023 2:30pm approx Route 822 from Highett to Chadstone</b><br /><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Validated / Total boardings 5/7 = 71% </b></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>* Test 7:</b> <b>26/11/2023 9:20am approx Route 408 from St Albans to Highpoint</b><br /><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">Validated / Total boardings 22/53 = 42% </b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><b>Touch on rates from this selection of trips were typically about 30 to 70 %. </b>Touching on was highest during the early commuter peak. It was lowest during school peaks with touching on rare amongst school students.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Authorised officers are rarely seen on buses. And even where a report of non-compliance is issued it can be challenged and fines sometimes waived, as <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/inside-myki-court-where-fare-evaders-challenge-their-fines-and-often-succeed-20231109-p5eivg.html">recently reported here</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>With such a low touch on rate to start with, it appears unlikely that adding previous discussed factors would get the compliance rate up to anything near the reported 96%. </b> Instead one might be more inclined to the view that DTP has basically lost control of fare compliance on buses. Once people have got used to not paying it's going to be doubly hard to convince them to pay, especially given the non-availability of top-ups on buses, unfairness introduced by the statewide flat fare, the perceived low chance of getting caught and demonstrable cost of living increases. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">As inadequate as they are, my little surveys have led me to the view that the touch on rate for buses is often low. While fare compliance will be higher than that, 96%, as reported seems improbable. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Improved means of data collection, such as automatic passenger counters on buses, could be helpful for several purposes including identifying overcrowding, prioritising service adjustments and enabling more efficient fare compliance and enforcement activity. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The DTP annual report is an official government document reporting on its activities and performance. The public and stakeholders (including Parliament) have a right for published information to be correct. And the department has an obligation to make it so. It should not be possible for a few casual observations to raise significant questions on an important metric. After all we are told that lack of resourcing (ie funding) is a reason for such limited service levels on many key bus routes. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">On the matter of bus fare compliance at least, department secretary Paul Younis has some explaining to do given the large gap between rosy reporting and on-the-ground reality. Like I <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/09/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">suggested for the auditor-general's a little while back</a>, going on a few bus rides would have helped greatly. Maybe even the Sunday <a href="https://twitter.com/NormanHermant/status/1728679169398333566">6:11pm Route 408 trip from Highpoint</a> for starters! </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-46320937167070766442023-11-21T06:00:00.021+11:002023-11-21T09:46:43.619+11:00UN 165: Bus upgrades for a broke government<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin2zekHF-pp-tM5eSCnG1aHdIuQn9FntjLii_JueZyHCwcnBotG7d7ln9hainpm5uQQGy-f7_0u9oC74Wqt2LP-x_VhG_fsCkPyLqSsV180OHeKEbOODwNUrli0MB4d_TO4T_V8FHCuWvlzD3gBt-TZVfL4v1YAIf5eae76JHOTO6GrIpLmbIH/s675/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="675" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin2zekHF-pp-tM5eSCnG1aHdIuQn9FntjLii_JueZyHCwcnBotG7d7ln9hainpm5uQQGy-f7_0u9oC74Wqt2LP-x_VhG_fsCkPyLqSsV180OHeKEbOODwNUrli0MB4d_TO4T_V8FHCuWvlzD3gBt-TZVfL4v1YAIf5eae76JHOTO6GrIpLmbIH/w400-h274/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></div>I'm getting the same message from everyone in government circles: "we're broke". <p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">But that shouldn't mean they should give up on improving bus services. <br /><br />Indeed buses are the best option if you want to improve transport for a lot of people in a lot of suburbs. Especially with the opportunities open due to Melbourne's <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/07/un-159-5-word-secret-to-faster-bus.html">historic slowness with bus reform</a>, with many decades-old inefficiencies and complexities remaining to be fixed. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Back in March I suggested <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/un-147-10-super-cheap-bus-boosts-for.html">ten super cheap bus boosts for 2023</a>. The good news is that one of those ten improvements got done with the 271 <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/about-ptv/improvements-and-projects/bus-and-coach/better-buses-for-deakin-burwood-and-box-hill/">gaining Sunday service last month</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">That wasn't so hard was it?</p><p style="text-align: justify;">The need to identify cost-effective bus improvements has got even more pressing in the last year with rising concerns over cost of living pressures and housing affordability. And it's not just individuals; governments that borrowed heavily are also feeling the pinch with interest rates soaring. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibh_CH1aWvrcl4CTdCzwFtkOwfL3MzpRdZPVv3US966YzZxf8L0f10QkpvvFobvyIpedBXhHJ8Bl2UkHTrTmnq0N_UOTDasjcnSAFcv6NVVJALbx1Y3fnvz5tq-r0S8NwIN8vdBa1wNrhJ-u27oSc2AShwm7AVYNu6vWHrIXd6-oQPrXLGGRgL/s545/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="545" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibh_CH1aWvrcl4CTdCzwFtkOwfL3MzpRdZPVv3US966YzZxf8L0f10QkpvvFobvyIpedBXhHJ8Bl2UkHTrTmnq0N_UOTDasjcnSAFcv6NVVJALbx1Y3fnvz5tq-r0S8NwIN8vdBa1wNrhJ-u27oSc2AShwm7AVYNu6vWHrIXd6-oQPrXLGGRgL/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Although there's still cranes in the sky, it feels like we're in a 'major project autumn' with few if any new commitments being made and some older ones never actioned (<a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-tram-connect-citys-south-eas">Rowville tram anyone</a>?). However we're still growing, so the case for continued transport improvements, especially the type that is either cheap or works existing assets harder, is overwhelming. That basically means a mix of active transport links, off-peak rail frequency upgrades and big dollops of bus reform. </div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Unfortunately Victoria's Bus Plan, intended to tackle the latter, is the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/bus-plan-turns-two-still-alive.html">stunted child</a> in the government's transport agenda. Buses never got the largesse that road and rail infrastructure did in the boom years. There wasn't much new in the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-24-state-budget-special-what-do.html">2023 state budget</a> either. <br /><br />While Infrastructure Victoria <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/document/2022-23-annual-report/">publicly promotes bus reform</a>, DTP's Paul Younis & co are strangely quiet despite a plan existing. For example they chose not to give Victoria's Bus Plan a single mention in <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1721082888861712542">DTP's recent annual report</a>. Bus Plan has also apparently <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1724966904073523386">vanished from the DTP website</a> with <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/search?q=Victoria%27s%20bus%20plan&size=n_10_n">nothing searchable</a> at the time of writing. Then minister Ben Carroll vigorously promoted the benefits of improved bus services but presumably too few others in government agreed to make it a serious priority (especially if they thought transport was already generously funded, albeit for infrastructure, not services). When you add these points it's hard to escape concluding that the Bus Plan currently has only a low status within DTP and government. One hopes new minister Gabrielle Williams can revive departmental interest and win support within government for bus reform and funding. <br /><br />Victoria's Bus Plan was essentially a 'plan for a plan'. Many details that one might have expected in it got held over for the Bus Reform Implementation Plan. That's not out yet. It may still meet its late 2023 deadline. However almost 30 months to wait is way too long. We've removed level crossings in less time than that. One can't help thinking whether lead times would be shorter if DTP's top executives included more <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-making-and-unmaking-of-the-east-west-link">Ken Mathers</a>-like figures who get stuff done. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The late 2022 announcement to <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/09/un-137-bus-network-reviews-coming-to.html">review bus networks in Melbourne's north and north-east</a> was welcome. However the review's size involving over 100 often interdependent bus routes likely extended time-lines, especially without certainty of funding. While well-intended this approach may not suit current budget circumstances nor the need to build delivery capability and momentum with early and closely spaced 'quick wins'.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">I'd have prioritised the latter, with a larger number of simpler initiatives done quickly and concurrently. Instead of starting at the top, DTP could have started at the bottom of the 'bus reform pyramid' below. And high patronage potential routes in areas like Dandenong should have been improved first to maximise early benefits. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK8xvvRMmZUV4mCwv-SXy63U21oq5BzbX4d6fSIkxQH2EpU1tx7vQys0YKW0PmZZPyPxTeU5AFKW74805rdRWT1i9SwDeTCGb3l_zIUTFpU8Racjiol1zfK3i3gUWAOsplcDeAEt2YNRtXXhRBxlaUsDsqwRAiglHRwji5c_Gf0Ts3z5o5ZfhB/s485/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="485" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK8xvvRMmZUV4mCwv-SXy63U21oq5BzbX4d6fSIkxQH2EpU1tx7vQys0YKW0PmZZPyPxTeU5AFKW74805rdRWT1i9SwDeTCGb3l_zIUTFpU8Racjiol1zfK3i3gUWAOsplcDeAEt2YNRtXXhRBxlaUsDsqwRAiglHRwji5c_Gf0Ts3z5o5ZfhB/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As DTP reform and delivery capability grows work could move up the pyramid, implementing more advanced reforms. Work in several areas should proceed in parallel to spread benefits as widely as possible. <br /><br />I say this because of the experience about 10 years ago under PTV. In 2014 it implemented significant bus network reform in Brimbank under a minister receptive to bus reform. Unfortunately the opportunity to do likewise in the east, eg around demographically similar Dandenong, was not taken despite similar social needs and network issues. Later the politics changed and the door to bus reform closed. Hence routes and timetables in areas like Noble Park North and Dandenong North today remain inconvenient and unreformed now because PTV was not agile enough to act when the opportunity existed. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">What are some specific 'base of pyramid' reforms we could be thinking about today? Here's such a list, refined from the March item with more detail added and offsetting savings identified: <br /><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Timetable changes only</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>These redistribute bus service kilometres from low to higher patronage potential routes, benefiting more people. They are the simplest to do as they are within the same bus operator group and do not require new bus purchases. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span><i><br /></i></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">1. Route 800 longer operating hours, higher Saturday frequency and new Sunday service. </span><br /></b>Funded from reduced service on much quieter Route 704 and deletion of the largely duplicative Route 698. More <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/un-147-10-super-cheap-bus-boosts-for.html">here</a>.<br /><b>Benefits: </b>Would provide 7 day service to Chadstone Shopping Centre along Princes Hwy on Melbourne's most productive bus route without it. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">2. Route 420 Sunday - Thursday evening operating hours extended to midnight approx. </span><br /></b>Funded by reducing or eliminating weekend service on Route 422 (with limited unique coverage). <br /><b>Benefits:</b> Would extend after 9pm service to a large low-income/high patronage area currently without it. Route already operates 24 hours on weekends as a part of Night Network but finishes approx 9pm other nights. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">3. Route 220 earlier Sunday start. </b><br />Funded by reducing early Saturday frequency on Route 223 from every 15 to every 20 min. <br /><b>Benefits: </b>Would increase Sunday span on popular routes with earlier CBD arrivals. Even just adding one trip for a 30 min earlier start would be very worthwhile given the area's demographic catchment. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">4. Route 431 operating hours extended to 9pm and 7 day service. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Funded by reducing Route 432 from an uneven 20-30 min to an even 30 minutes off-peak weekdays. More <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/03/un-147-10-super-cheap-bus-boosts-for.html">here</a>. <br /><b>Benefits:</b> Adds evening, 7 day and public holiday service in Kingsville area without it. More reliable off-peak connections with trains and a clockface timetable on the 432. Route 432 currently has very low patronage productivity so some transfer of resources from it is justified and would likely go unnoticed. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br /></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">5. Route 237 weekend service added.</b> </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Funded by reducing weeknight frequency and transferring service hours to weekends. Current timetable is weekdays only despite serving apartments on Lorimer St. <br /><b>Benefits: </b>Would provide a basic 7 day service to apartments on Lorimer St. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">6. Extended hours on Routes 580 and 582.</b> </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Funded by reducing frequency on long and poorly used routes 578 and 579 and transferring service hours to Route 582 (which currently finishes early) and Route 580 (which has a late Sunday am start). <br /><b>Benefits: </b>Would upgrade both routes 580 and 582 to minimum service standards (ie 9pm finish) 7 days per week. Further benefits may be possible if route reforms are brought into scope, eg making 582 bidirectional and extending it to Greensborough. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWejahSkxylYRV-Owik8y80om2J0lLDGiHdzJjka9P7ONs5AK0tztrHDgZEA1z0IO8KuQAmOJoSSarp2EW0HJgMJL_8lY41IaVRSnbAUV67rd-bzavje9oixi-lBv6dyVHbEHeh_rinoWPt_kMdyasiHhxhxQyy_BG63FJp5clSDCqy0oXfzTJ/s503/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="217" data-original-width="503" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWejahSkxylYRV-Owik8y80om2J0lLDGiHdzJjka9P7ONs5AK0tztrHDgZEA1z0IO8KuQAmOJoSSarp2EW0HJgMJL_8lY41IaVRSnbAUV67rd-bzavje9oixi-lBv6dyVHbEHeh_rinoWPt_kMdyasiHhxhxQyy_BG63FJp5clSDCqy0oXfzTJ/s320/temp.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Splitting complex routes</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Splitting can simplify long and indirect routes into two straighter routes with a new route number introduced for one half. No stops are missed and there need be no time or timetable changes (although these might be desirable). Desirable splits could include the following:</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">1. 380 at Ringwood and Croydon.</span> </b>A complex circular route that could be simplified to two Ringwood - Croydon bidirectional routes, one north and the other south. Weekend operating hours extensions are desirable but the split can be done without them. This route serves Maroondah Hospital. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">2. 469 at Airport West. </b><span style="background-color: white;">This split at a major shopping centre would simplify a very complex and circuitous route. Route number 466 is available for one of the sections. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">3. 517 at Greensborough. </b>This Northland - St Helena route has a busier western portion and a quieter eastern portion. The entire route operates every 24 minutes on weekdays, not meeting trains every 20 minutes. Splitting the route at Greensborough with the western portion every 20 minutes and the eastern portion every 40 minutes would better match usage with service provision. The eastern portion (Route number 519 suggested) could have its timing optimised to meet trains at Greensborough with departures evenly staggered with the existing 518 (also every 40 min). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">4. 566 at Greensborough.</b> A complex route that backtracks via Greensborough with some stops served by buses in both directions. No one would ride it end to end. Hence it is a good candidate for a split at Greensborough, adding amenity to the rebuilt station and bus interchange. Other potential improvements include a western extension to Epping Plaza and improving its frequency from the current ~23 to 20 minutes to harmonise evenly with trains. 565 is a spare route number suggested for the northern portion.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">5. 736 at Glen Waverley.</b> Again no one would ride this end to end as walking would be quicker and there is a train. Glen Waverley is a major centre, interchange and future SRL station. The service would become easier to use if it was split into two routes. Through running and timetables could even remain the same with a route number changing at Glen Waverley. Spare number 739 could be used for the eastern half. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx-byWsZRFRccRo0vd3x-XudMjdgJyou5VJOCRyx2CVe87UIK3hXZctg5UeYy9bY7hykHEI7qJTCh17F5oFcRaLEui6iyECxVz-dqdWpF0lUtjejy478WzQ_35LB-XsLLerCHOZ1eux7bXlgDhyphenhyphenddpIaBUnYHHM1c8JuV-ZO7q2CLnQEYMjIrH/s424/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="377" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx-byWsZRFRccRo0vd3x-XudMjdgJyou5VJOCRyx2CVe87UIK3hXZctg5UeYy9bY7hykHEI7qJTCh17F5oFcRaLEui6iyECxVz-dqdWpF0lUtjejy478WzQ_35LB-XsLLerCHOZ1eux7bXlgDhyphenhyphenddpIaBUnYHHM1c8JuV-ZO7q2CLnQEYMjIrH/s320/temp.PNG" width="285" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Removing kinks and deviations</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Some bus routes have kinks or deviations that slow through passengers but do little to improve network coverage. Some kinks may add confusion or leave gaps of up to 80 minutes in the timetable if they only operate on some trips. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Examples of routes with kinks or backtracking that could be removed include <b>273</b> (Blackburn North), <b>279</b> (Blackburn Station), <b>504</b> (indirectness in Fitzroy North), <b>503</b> & <b>510</b> (near Essendon), <b>506</b> (Smith St), <b>536</b> (alternating paths) and <b>833</b> (Frankston-Dandenong Rd). Others like <b>555</b>, <b>556</b>, <b>558</b>, <b>624</b>, <b>742</b> and <b>895</b> (to name a few) are also complicated. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Cutting poorly used kinks may free up service kilometres that could fund improvements, even if it's just adding one or two earlier or later trips on a popular route run by the same operator. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Economical network reform within the one operator group</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">While network planning is best by region rather than by bus operator, there are still cases where small cost-effective improvements can be made by redistributing service kilometres within a bus operator's network from quieter to busier routes. <br /><br />This is least likely where a bus operator has a. only a few routes, b. relatively low service levels, c. few quiet routes and/or d. an existing or recently reformed efficient network (so there are few further efficiencies). <br /><br />Conversely prospects for cheap reform are highest for operators that have a. many routes, b. relatively high service levels, many quiet routes, and/or d. an inefficient network with indirect and overlapping routes that hasn't been reformed for years. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Below is my first cut at graphing this for various Melbourne bus operators. Approximate size is left to right while cost-effective network reform potential is bottom to top. <br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3pN_p6fhvsFxolsKkKIveXTiI4cfiwAwJUN0Qn9l3wHYM1y8GrZgFqcOdY7DQTM65SwHJIByHFzV9eWFnQaNexmMrhbWaNZl4RowgZBWd2hc8f33d2eTiTISVZ8Lu9OsCgJEA7hfRRqh-3J_oa9v1WNhqYTk0qLDl5ac4jgzqHDWfTyBNNEwN/s460/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="343" data-original-width="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3pN_p6fhvsFxolsKkKIveXTiI4cfiwAwJUN0Qn9l3wHYM1y8GrZgFqcOdY7DQTM65SwHJIByHFzV9eWFnQaNexmMrhbWaNZl4RowgZBWd2hc8f33d2eTiTISVZ8Lu9OsCgJEA7hfRRqh-3J_oa9v1WNhqYTk0qLDl5ac4jgzqHDWfTyBNNEwN/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">At bottom left is <b>Martyrs</b>. Their only regular route is the 683. It's direct, efficient and well used. So you'd leave it as is. To the right of them is McKenzies. They run a few more routes. However their scope for reform is very low since I've factored in the <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/about-ptv/improvements-and-projects/bus-and-coach/upcoming-improvements-to-the-yarra-valley-bus-network/">reformed Yarra Valley network</a> starting in a few days. But if I was comparing the current network then <b>McKenzies</b> would be higher up, somewhere near <b>Panorama</b>. <br /><br />Speaking of which, <b>Panorama</b>, in the top left, is the only smallish operator who I've rated as having high reform prospects. Why? Although they run only a few routes, I regard them as the keystone to bus reform in the Eltham / Diamond Valley area, which has a large number of low productivity bus routes. Reform to these could unlock wider benefits that ripple all across north-east Melbourne. <br /><br />This is because <b>Panorama</b> run the very lowly used but quite highly served (for a semi-rural area) 578 and 579. If you are able to redistribute bus hours resources from these to more densely populated areas like Eltham, Greensborough and Templestowe then there may be an overall patronage gain. One option could involve changing the circular unidirectional Route 582 at Eltham to a bidirectional Eltham - Greensborough route, passing near Montmorency via the 293 alignment. In conjunction with a kilometres neutral swapping the 901 and 902 alignment in the Greensborough area (providing a direct Greensborough - Doncaster SmartBus connection) the 582 extension makes the 293 (run by <b>Kinetic</b>) redundant. All that extra kilometres could be put on the popular 281 to increase its frequency to 15 minutes weekdays and likely 30 minutes weekends with new Sunday service and longer operating hours. This concept would need to be weighed against alternatives (as better options may be available) but illustrates that even a relatively small change can have a benefit across a wide area. <br /><br />What about other corners? <b>CDC</b> is alone in the bottom right. This is because it is the rare combination of being a large operator that has had most of its routes redone during the big Williams Landing, Brimbank and Wyndham reforms of 2013 - 2015. Most of its routes are more productive than the Melbourne average yet service levels are often quite low, with 40 minute off-peak headways common. Boosting frequencies of these would be an excellent idea but new funding is required as there are few if any economies to be found in a generally direct and efficient network. The main exceptions are their operations in the east where there are potential low (but likely not zero) cost reform opportunities involving routes like 606, 623 and 624 remaining. <br /><br />The top right is the most interesting. Here you've got three big operators with either high service levels, overlapping routes or unreformed networks. Each has slightly different network issues but economies of scale should make aspects fixable. <br /><br />Of these <b>Dysons</b> has the least reformed bus network in Melbourne, especially after taking over the Reservoir Bus operations. Everything that's wrong with Melbourne buses can be found on a Dysons service, whether it be the sparse service of the 609, the backtracking of the 556 or 566, the midday reversal of the 558, the weak terminus of the 552, the midday Saturday finish of the 559 or the prevalence of 22 - 25 minute headways that miss trains every 20 minutes. It is possibly for these reasons that the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/09/un-137-bus-network-reviews-coming-to.html">government chose Melbourne's north for its first bus reviews</a> in September 2022 notwithstanding the complexity involved. <br /><br /><b>Dysons</b> run no SmartBuses so their service levels are not particularly high. However there are portions of their routes with relatively poor catchments and patronage productivity, for example the Diamond Creek end of the 381 or the 517 north of Greensborough. Rationalising these could free up a few service kilometres for routes that need it more. Generally though cost-effective timetable reforms likely also require network reforms making improvements here harder than for other operators' routes. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I've rated <b>Kinetic's</b> scope for reform as being slightly lower than <b>Dysons</b> or <b>Ventura</b> thanks to significant network reforms in 2014, 2021 and even a little in 2023. However <b>Kinetic</b> runs most of Melbourne's high service SmartBus routes. Sections of these overlap other routes or serve poor catchments. Notable examples include 901 overlaps with 280/282, 309 and 902 and 903 overlaps with 232, 411, 465 and 527. Such overlaps make the orbitals less consistently productive than they should be and impose opportunity costs, particularly with regard to their currently poor weekend frequencies.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Semi-rural areas like Yarrambat get an orbital SmartBus that is arguably overservicing. And while the Greensborough area gets an (arguably generous) two SmartBus orbitals (901 and 902), none provide a frequent connection between the two big centres of Greensborough and Doncaster, leaving the job to the duplicative and infrequent 293 (that nevertheless has good productivity performance). Swapping the 901 and 902 in both the Greensborough and Broadmeadows areas could provide this connection as well as improve directness to Melbourne Airport. <br /><br />There is a lot of buses and service kilometres tied up in the SmartBus orbital routes. The government has shown it can reform orbitals by recently rerouting the 903 via Deakin University. If it wants a more efficient bus network for the least money it will have to revive discussion about <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/07/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_17.html">splitting the SmartBus orbitals</a> despite splitting being one of the controversial parts of the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/12/scotched-at-last-minute-how-transdevs.html">aborted 2015 Transdev network</a>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">More than any other Melbourne bus operator, <b>Kinetic</b> has a reserve of bus service kilometre resources that could be used to cost-effectively optimise the network. As well as the orbitals mentioned previously these include expensive to run but poorly used and/or duplicative routes like 232 and the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/05/timetable-tuesday-22-lessons-from.html">280/282 Manningham Mover</a>. Potential benefits could include new SmartBus routes, much needed weekend service upgrades on the busiest parts of some orbitals, extra coverage in areas without it like around Ringwood East and simplifying the very complex 600/922/923 corridor between St Kilda, Sandringham and Southland.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Ventura</b> is like <b>Dysons</b> in that it doesn't have a lot of really high service routes and most of its territory hasn't had a lot of bus network reform. Nevertheless some of its routes, like 693 and 742 on Ferntree Gully Rd, have significant overlaps with scope for consolidation. The same can be said for growth areas between Berwick and Cranbourne plus simplification around Pakenham. And there are established areas like Bentleigh East, Mulgrave, Keysborough and Dandenong North where it might be possible to simplify networks and boost service frequencies. Weekend services better than the typical 60 minutes would be very desirable but I'm not sure there's a lot of 'fat' to improve more than a few routes within existing resources. <br /><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large; font-weight: 700;">Area based network reforms across operators</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>These are the most challenging for the DTP to arrange but are necessary to maximise 'bang for buck' by removing inefficiencies to deliver the simple frequent and direct services that the Bus Plan (correctly) says we want. The tougher the budget the more important such planning creativity becomes in improving bus services. And there have been local examples of multi-operator sharing for an overall network benefit, such as with the successful Route 900 SmartBus between Caulfield and Rowville. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>A few opportunities for network reform involving two or more operators might include: <br /><br /><b style="background-color: #fcff01;">* Ballarat Rd frequent bus.</b> Network reform based on reforming 220 and 410 between Footscray and Sunshine, with 220 operating along more of Ballarat Rd to provide a simpler service linking both VU campuses. Service would be tram-like, ideally every 10 min or better all week. <br /><br /><b style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br />* Footscray - VU - Highpoint.</b> Based on merging 223 and 406 to provide a simple frequent 7 day bus between major destinations. Current services are less frequent than they should be and, in the case of 406, indirect as well. Route 409 may also need reform in the area to retain coverage. Again you'd be wanting a 10 min 7 day service with long operating hours. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span><b style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br />* SmartBus routed via Highpoint.</b> Based on rerouting the 903 between Essendon and Sunshine via Highpoint, replacing 468 and 408 in area. Would likely require other compensatory reforms, eg longer hours and more frequent Sunday service for the 465 and an extension of the 406 to Sunshine to replace the 903. This mini-review would remove the 903/465 duplication and bring orbital SmartBus services to Highpoint (as intended with the aborted Blue Orbital). </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span><b style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br />* Millers Rd Altona North.</b> Corridor currently has multiple overlapping routes (232, 411, 903) yet still has low frequencies, especially on weekends. Potentially ripe for consolidating with 411 becoming the main frequent SmartBus type route in the area and the 903 finishing at Sunshine. Best done in conjunction with an Altona North network review that features improved and more direct connectivity to Newport Station and potentially Fishermans Bend. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br />* Coburg - Heidelberg via Northland.</b> Based on merging portions of Route 527 with 903 to provide a 7 day orbital service running every 10-15 minutes between major destinations, trams and trains. <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/11/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">More</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b style="background-color: #fcff01;"><br />* Berwick - Cranbourne.</b> Based on simplifying and joining local routes to provide a one-seat ride between these key destinations, preferably every 20 minutes or better. Ventura and Cranbourne Transit currently operate in the area with some routes often having large overlaps, low frequencies and weak termini. As Clyde Rd is a growth area corridor an examination of whether current GAIC funding arrangements are flexible enough to permit the most efficient and economical bus network planning would be essential. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span> </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">A broke government can still make bus reforms. Indeed wise spending requires it. Several ideas to maximise the benefit from our bus assets and funded service kilometres have been presented. While an effort has been made to identify offsetting costs for operations, there will still be some setup costs. However these are worthwhile to kick-start the benefits listed and are small relative to what is spent on major projects or even DTP executive salaries. <br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; text-align: left;">PS:</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; text-align: left;"> </span><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_26.html" style="color: #4d469c; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">An index to other useful networks is here</a><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; text-align: left;">.</span></b></span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-14412441506463722102023-10-31T11:33:00.005+11:002023-10-31T11:50:23.824+11:00Better transport for our housing priority areas<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5QMhwFgE3h4FLi37HVMOAjlLPvKngo2j4I4IhjT6kr7nFSBt3Av3iUvuSbGJeqhxNOmQoWN8Rkbh0VvKJSWJ4auhWRY4KJiQXjkteo3YOGReLxdah7Mt3nzCuLjvOdg_NQBWjG-2i8UDP8Iaar7Qcdgsbkp5O5Smj7DvYOEB3mgdik2v8crDm/s587/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="427" data-original-width="587" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5QMhwFgE3h4FLi37HVMOAjlLPvKngo2j4I4IhjT6kr7nFSBt3Av3iUvuSbGJeqhxNOmQoWN8Rkbh0VvKJSWJ4auhWRY4KJiQXjkteo3YOGReLxdah7Mt3nzCuLjvOdg_NQBWjG-2i8UDP8Iaar7Qcdgsbkp5O5Smj7DvYOEB3mgdik2v8crDm/w400-h291/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-10-melbourne-locations-set-to-get-thousands-of-new-homes-20231030-p5eg1x.html">Today's Age</a> carried a story listing ten priority suburban areas for new and likely denser housing. Nominated areas are: Broadmeadows, Camberwell Junction, Chadstone, Epping, Frankston, Moorabbin, Niddrie (Keilor Road), North Essendon, Preston (High Street) and Ringwood.</div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This obviously triggers need for improved public transport. The government has called for a 'consortium of consultants to identify the transport and community infrastructure needs of the first 10 activity centres'. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">I can't talk about the community infrastructure but I will say a few words about transport. All right now and without you paying a cent. Aren't blogs wonderful? </p><p style="text-align: justify;">What will follow is broadly consistent with my <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/07/un-135-future-frequent-network.html">Future Frequent Network</a>. That's the basic grid of 10 minute service across all modes which you can see on the interactive map. You can also select layers for 'Useful Network' routes every 20 minutes. Together these provide a comprehensive network within 800 metres of most people and jobs. The FFN is just lines on maps and doesn't talk about capacity or speed (also needed) but it's still way ahead of anything the government's published for a long time. And the FFN is high impact, likely getting more people on to public transport than any single mega-project (though it would also feed, support and complement them). </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Three years ago the government announced six social housing growth areas. I <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/11/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_27.html">listed their main public transport needs and opportunities</a> here. My stress was on what was cost-effective and achievable so that the improved service is running as soon as people move in. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">I'll do the same for the ten housing priority areas below: </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Broadmeadows</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Rebuild Broadmeadows station to be a fit for purpose mixed use interchange<br />- Boost Craigieburn line frequency from every 20-40 min to every 10 min<br />- Upfield line upgrade including duplication, extension and a new station with bus interchange at Campbellfield<br />- SmartBuses upgrades to every 10 min 7 days with a rerouted 902 'SRL SmartBus' linking Melbourne Airport, Gladstone Park, Broadmeadows, Campbellfield, Keon Park and Greensborough. <br />- Fast and frequent bus corridors on Aitken Bvd and Mickleham Rd feeding Broadmeadows<br />- A new direct bus route to Coburg (potentially by extending the 527 via Widford St)<br />- Better connections to jobs on Hume Hwy/Campbellfield<br />- Local bus upgrades with longer operating hours, higher 7 day frequency and maximum 20 min waits to surrounding areas including Meadow Heights and Dallas. <br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Camberwell Junction </span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Boost Ringwood line frequency to every 10 min or better at all times<br />- Maximum 10 min waits on all tram routes with boosted priority for higher speed<br />- Extend Burke Rd tram south to Caulfield and north to at least Kew East. Commence frequent bus service in interim period. <br />- Reform bus 624 on Tooronga Rd to operate as separate Caulfield - La Trobe Unversity route running at high frequencies and with long operating hours.<br />- Commence new bus route from Victoria Gardens to Elsternwick area via Burnley station to provide an efficient north-south link (potentially reformed Route 604). <br />- Upgrade all bus routes to run 7 days with higher frequencies especially on weekends, especially north-south routes, notably Chandler Hwy, Tooronga Rd and Balwyn Rd with network reforms also required. <br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Chadstone</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Boost service on 900 and 903 to run every 10 min or better 7 days<br />- Build large scale bus priority then Bus Rapid Transit (potentially grade separated on sections) to speed both north-south Warrigal Rd and east-west Princes Hwy connectivity<br />- Extend Alamein line to Oakleigh with a station in the Chadstone area<br />- Boost service on surrounding train lines (Dandenong & Glen Waverley) for maximum 10 min waits<br />- Extend tram route 3 to Chadstone<br />- Boost weekend frequencies on all buses to match weekday frequencies (short term) including 7 day service on routes currently without it eg 612, 800, 802 & 804. <br />- Reform and simplify bus networks for simpler routes, each with 20 min maximum waits and long term operating hours. Priorities to include (i) combining 693 and 742 as boosted and extended 693 on Ferntree Gully Rd, (ii) 802, 804 & 862 combining into two routes including reform in Dandenong area, (iii) 627, 767, 822 reform to provide for frequent and direct East Boundary Rd route to Southland and (iv) Reform of 623 and 624 west of Chadstone to provide simpler and more frequent 623 to St Kilda via Caulfield station. <br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Epping </span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Boost rail services on Mernda line to run every 10 min at all times<br />- Boost 901 to operate every 10 min or better between at least Roxburgh Park and South Morang<br />- Bus Rapid Transit from Wollert to Plenty Rd via Epping Plaza and Epping station<br />- 10 minute frequent bus corridor from Epping Station up Epping Rd to Craigieburn Rd. <br />- Reform of local routes including removing kinks (eg 556), extensions to major activity centres (566) and boosting frequencies to 20 min or better<br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Frankston</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- A new northern entrance for Frankston station to greatly improve walking connectivity to trains<br />- Minor improvements to train frequency to deliver 10 min service over more hours<br />- Upgraded Route 901 frequency with 10 min maximum waits 7 days<br />- Upgrade Route 791 to Cranbourne to operate more frequently over longer hours<br />- Reconfigure Frankston CBD buses to provide frequent north-south corridors to reduce need to change at Frankston station for local trips eg from hospital and Monash University. <br />- Major bus network reforms in Karingal, Frankston south, Frankston East and Carrum Downs areas including more 7 day coverage, longer hours, simpler routes and more coverage. <br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Moorabbin</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Minor improvements to train frequency to deliver 10 min service over more hours<br />- 824 bus on South Rd extended to Brighton or Brighton Beach and upgraded to run longer hours and higher frequency, especially on weekends<br />- Reformed bus routes in Cheltenham/Highett area to deliver a fast and direct Sandringham - Bay Rd - Southland bus<br />- Local bus reform including a frequent East Boundary Rd bus to Chadstone (reformed 767), merging complex 811/812 routes, connections to Moorabbin jobs and improved east-west connections from local stations. <br />- A new Southland - Nepean Hwy - Moorabbin - Elsternwick route operating 7 days incorporating current limited service 823 bus. <br />- Longer operating hours and upgraded weekend frequency on local bus routes including 708, 822, 825 and 828. <br />- Major walking and cycling improvements<br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Niddrie (Keilor Road)</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Boost Craigieburn train frequency to every 10 min or better<br />- Boost tram 59 to every 10 min or better at times it currently isn't. Seek speed & accessibility improvements. <br />- Improve tram/bus/shopping centre connectivity at Airport West<br />- Simplify the complex 469 bus by splitting at Airport West<br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">North Essendon</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Boost Craigieburn train frequency to every 10 min or better<br />- Boost tram 59 to every 10 min or better at times it currently isn't. Seek speed & accessibility improvements. <br />- Improve tram/bus/shopping centre connectivity at Airport West<br />- Improve bus 903 weekend frequency and improve currently poor physical connectivity between bus and train at Essendon station<br />- Simplify the complex 469 bus by splitting at Airport West<br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Preston (High Street) </span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Boost rail services on Mernda line to run every 10 min at all times<br />- Merging the 527 and 903 to provide a simplified east-west bus between Heidelberg, Northland, Preston and Coburg for little cost operating every 10 minutes or better<br />- Simplify 513 and 514 bus on Bell St to operate as a single route to Greensborough with longer operating hours and a 10-15 min 7 day frequency for improved east-west connectivity. <br />- Off-peak tram frequency upgrades to cut waits to 10 min <br />- Simplification of bus network with more frequent service, improved directness and logical termini involving routes such as 552, 553 and 567.<br />- Major walking and cycling improvements<br /><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Ringwood</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">- Upgrading train services to simplify peak timetables and cut maximum waits from 30 to 10 min until last train (achieved by operating Belgrave and Lilydale legs every 20 min as happens on weekends)<br />- Boost 901 to Frankston to operate every 10 min 7 days<br />- Boost 670 bus to run longer hours and maximum 20 min waits on any day<br />- A new Canterbury Rd bus to Box Hill operating every 20 min or better via Forest Hill SC<br />- A major reform of local buses, including adding 7 day service, simplifying routes and adding coverage<br />- Major walking and cycling improvements</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">That's a quick list. There's no doubt many omissions. Ideas welcome in comments below. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-18523568185113649062023-10-29T06:00:00.077+11:002023-10-30T10:44:16.363+11:00Highlights from MTF's ZEBs and Beyond Forum<p style="text-align: justify;">On Tuesday October 25 the Metropolitan Transport Forum held the <a href="https://mtf.org.au/buses/mtf-bus-forum-3-zebs-beyond/">Zero Emission Buses and Beyond</a> forum as part of Bus Awareness Week. Addressed by Gabrielle Williams, the new minister for Public and Active Transport, it had some great presentations and discussions. Here they are: </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Minister's address</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZIulnkOwoG0" width="320" youtube-src-id="ZIulnkOwoG0"></iframe></div><br /><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Victoria's Transition to Zero Emission Buses</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jl6dPxxt-_M" width="320" youtube-src-id="Jl6dPxxt-_M"></iframe></div><br /><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: medium;">Fair Share Cities: Gender and planning</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/D9M61LlzPyc" width="320" youtube-src-id="D9M61LlzPyc"></iframe></div><div><br /></div><br /><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Auckland’s New Network – a Bus Reform case study</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MgjnS7h3gqM" width="320" youtube-src-id="MgjnS7h3gqM"></iframe></div><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Dr John Stone presents a frequent grid network </span></b></span></b><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">for Melbourne's west</span></b></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PPjVzDKiwdM" width="320" youtube-src-id="PPjVzDKiwdM"></iframe></span></b></div><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></b></span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Panel discussion on FlexiRide bus performance in growth areas</span></b></span></b></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jc8ZO96DVnI" width="320" youtube-src-id="Jc8ZO96DVnI"></iframe></span></b></span></b></div><p style="text-align: justify;">Above has a particularly exciting mention of possible new GAIC funding for growth area bus services to be announced in December 2023. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span><span>
</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span><span>Watch one or watch them all. You'll be glad you did! </span></span></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-10482266858617094342023-10-12T06:00:00.016+11:002023-10-12T10:04:25.776+11:00Research spotlight: How long do residents in new estates have to wait for bus routes?<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1xzIsI-VCs7iCO5E6wAm0cJsQ8r-P2Og1JS1hp4opl9DBnmZEwCM-X8OlhYzz9gGZAVpLSLFcYNeLyVRBzWLxiBjESt7gP5INrn2CeoATt3onYC_nxJjmw0yp7Yb-gHvKk-oJmteoETweCjVI8L0nfihzOi6OyX49p1f_sg68OvUTv8HO0XY/s638/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="638" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1xzIsI-VCs7iCO5E6wAm0cJsQ8r-P2Og1JS1hp4opl9DBnmZEwCM-X8OlhYzz9gGZAVpLSLFcYNeLyVRBzWLxiBjESt7gP5INrn2CeoATt3onYC_nxJjmw0yp7Yb-gHvKk-oJmteoETweCjVI8L0nfihzOi6OyX49p1f_sg68OvUTv8HO0XY/w400-h226/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Nothing much by me today but I can bring you something both better and more important. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It's RMIT research on how long it takes for new estates in Melbourne to get bus routes put in. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is absolutely vital. Because people are most likely to change their transport habits when they face a major change in their life circumstances. That can include a new work location, large changes in income or (especially) moving house.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is because peoples' habits are shaped by the transport they find (or don't find) in their new location. If cycling is easier and parking is harder then that will change how they get around. And in the long term households (especially couples) will sell their second (and sometimes even only) car. Thus further decreasing car usage.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Conversely if people move to an area with no public transport then high car use will be entrenched as part of daily life from Day One. Couples getting by with one car will buy another even if they'd rather use the money for another purpose (including affording the basics for those on low incomes) since having one car per adult is pretty much a pre-requisite to finding or keeping work. Or even a basic level of community participation. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Public transport connections established well after most people move in will still get used but since people have bought all their cars usage won't be as high compared to if it was established early in a suburb's establishment when it had a chance shape peoples travel habits from the start. </div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Thus having even a basic bus service early in a new suburb's life is essential to give it the best chance of success. And to allow residents the choice of buying only the cars they want to have, not those that poor transport forces them to have. Getting more people on public transport right from their neighbourhood has wider benefits, especially if both road connections and parking at the nearest station are limited.</span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I've <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/04/un-151-how-long-will-mt-atkinson-wait.html">written</a> <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/un-152-transport-for-mambourin.html">multiple</a> <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/un-153-buses-for-thornhill-park.html">times</a> about new suburbs waiting for public transport well after people have moved in. How typical is this experience in outer Melbourne? </p><p style="text-align: justify;">You're about to find out thanks to this great new paper by researchers <span style="text-align: left;">Annette Kroen, Steve Pemberton & Chris De Gruyter. In a nutshell 3 to 4 years it typical, though waits can be up to 14 years. And, while it's beyond the research's scope, I'd argue that 30 to 40 year established areas like Rowville, Lysterfield, Ringwood East, Croydon, Frankston South and many more remain lacking without a full service too, getting, at best <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/12/un-139-testing-tarneit-north-flexiride.html">unreliable</a> or <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/09/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_02026079549.html">limited hours</a> FlexiRide services. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">The above doesn't do the research justice. So I think you should read the paper here. </span></p><p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1077291X23000292"><b>https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1077291X23000292</b></a><br /><br /></p><div style="text-align: justify;">It's also worth nothing that even where there is service the limitations of leap-frog development, the lack of through roads and/or highly conditional GAIC funding can lead to a pattern of multiple overlapping and infrequent routes <a href="And even where there is service the limitations of leap-frog development, the lack of through roads and/or highly conditional GAIC funding can lead to a pattern of multiple overlapping routes that nevertheless do not ">such as in Clyde North where not a single bus runs continuously from Berwick to Cranbourne</a>, despite both being destinations where people would wish to go. Long-term government uninterest in bus network reform and slow internal processes (when there is interest) can mean that even though suitable through roads get built and level crossings removed, it can take years (sometimes decades) for buses to get routes that take advantage of these works. </div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">In contrast things were done differently (and better) a century ago. For example <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1710783642090566063">here is a case</a> (from a century ago) where the bus was put in before all the blocks were developed. </div><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-19397656524196124202023-10-10T08:26:00.008+11:002023-10-11T11:50:41.209+11:00Minister Williams' top 5 local public transport priorities<p style="text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs1CCxhE0IuKnELq-Q91SG86goMjMpQZEg6mfvPkjie1ev3-dk_bzzMbHjfwLrqx-7LclX90ml8BfbaggFNGfUQqkjRq3WrEmrQmo5MpITW832KGAfTkycpFducfMNUgGHyP5G-k_7xYCabCyclgBUotpGkc9gUVPVhWKbw9mT6s9GFBuZqc2C/s321/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="294" data-original-width="321" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs1CCxhE0IuKnELq-Q91SG86goMjMpQZEg6mfvPkjie1ev3-dk_bzzMbHjfwLrqx-7LclX90ml8BfbaggFNGfUQqkjRq3WrEmrQmo5MpITW832KGAfTkycpFducfMNUgGHyP5G-k_7xYCabCyclgBUotpGkc9gUVPVhWKbw9mT6s9GFBuZqc2C/s320/temp.PNG" width="320" /></a></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Last week I <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/10/welcoming-allan-governments-new.html">welcomed the new Public & Active Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams</a> and listed some important agenda items where she could make a real impact. These tended to be quite broad, even state-wide. <br /><br />Today I want to cover Dandenong area issues that are important in her capacity as local MP. As I've written extensively about most in the past I'll make this a short list with links for further detail. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="text-align: left;">1. 7 day service on all Dandenong bus routes</span></b></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;">First priority as it's important, cheap and easy to fix. Dandenong is amongst Melbourne's lowest income and most diverse areas but <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/tt-184-how-dandenong-got-short-changed.html">has the least 7 day bus service of any comparable area</a>. There was a big push to fix that across Melbourne about 15 years ago but implementation was only half-hearted in Dandenong. Thus timetables for many routes remain untouched, retaining their early finish and limited Saturday afternoon and Sunday service. This is despite the buses that do run (especially the 800) being amongst Melbourne's busiest bus routes that lack 7 day service. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Priorities for upgrade include 800, 814, 802/804, 885, 844 and 857, probably in that order. <u>Funding for all these would be desirable in the 2024 state budget</u>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">2. Simpler, more direct and more frequent bus routes</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Bus routes in Dandenong can be complex, overlapping and not have been reformed for decades. Along with the short operating days/hours mentioned above their frequency can be low, with 60 and even 120 minute service found on the network. Simplification of the network should allow some frequency increases especially if accompanied by some modest extra funding for weekend and evening operating hours. Simplification could mean that each route runs every 20 to 40 minutes at all times rather than every 40-120 minutes as currently. There could also be more even spacing on routes that continue to overlap. <br /><br />The simplest candidate for network simplification in Dandenong is a mini-review of the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/06/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">802/804/862 corridor</a>. Also worth considering is the complex network further west in suburbs like Keysborough and Mulgrave, which although outside Dandenong have implications for services in it. <br /><br />Network simplification often requires public consultation and takes more time to plan than a simple timetable upgrade. Thus it can't happen as quickly as a 7 day service roll-out. Nevertheless the <u>2024 state budget should allocate at least planning funding</u> to enable a start to be made.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />3. New bus routes to Dandenong South and the Monash precinct</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Could be part of the network simplification reviews above but would require additional funding. Connections to jobs in Dandenong South is a key need with the desirability of direct routes to adjoining suburbs including Keysborough, Hampton Park and Narre Warren. Also important is better connections to the Monash precinct, which my <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/12/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_0853552840.html">Metro Tunnel Bus Network</a> has from Dandenong via Heatherton Rd and Springvale. </div><p></p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">4. Trains every 10 min until midnight 7 days</span></b></p><p></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Justified as Dandenong is Melbourne's busiest line. One hopes that this happens when Metro Tunnel <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1711612844368900409">opens next year</a>, though Melbourne's record at adding service once infrastructure is built is patchy. Current waits for trains at Dandenong are 30 min on weekend evenings and Sunday mornings. This is despite high need for travel at these times with trains every 10 minutes from early morning to midnight, all week justified for the City - Dandenong portion. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A good approach would be to extend the current daytime operating pattern (Pakenham/Cranbourne each every 20 min) into the night and Sunday morning as well. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">5. Regularly maintaining and cleaning the disgrace that is Dandenong Station</span></b></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The centre of the area's transport network is dirty, dusty and unloved. And you can't blame vandals for most of it. Paint is badly chipped, platforms are unmaintained and certain areas look as if they have not been reached in for months if not years. Bus network maps are wrong, having not been changed since 2014. Hence there needs to be more regular maintenance and a deep cleaning regime. Stations that are a similar age to Dandenong (eg on Perth's Joondalup line) are better maintained. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">A spruce-up with regular maintenance and cleaning thereafter would do wonders for Dandenong's presentation. Better station maintenance is a <u>no-brainer for the 2024 budget</u> and/or should be a requirement of the new rail franchise currently being negotiated. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguh7sDzgSx3MSJffUhod9HH3LTRVtw93J0ZVq9-bQI6idJrmrd8QG5tMxVeCPU-6fWEmmgmxI2v_Af35cEJWxrIasiSO2f9yvKolPa2U2PEo7HPr1Lz3UWdStwNyay5Qa1tDLr7RauDYeA0dCzGgZUGko_c7Xh384bMzjte6f8xsFEvhkMuv24/s385/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="254" data-original-width="385" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguh7sDzgSx3MSJffUhod9HH3LTRVtw93J0ZVq9-bQI6idJrmrd8QG5tMxVeCPU-6fWEmmgmxI2v_Af35cEJWxrIasiSO2f9yvKolPa2U2PEo7HPr1Lz3UWdStwNyay5Qa1tDLr7RauDYeA0dCzGgZUGko_c7Xh384bMzjte6f8xsFEvhkMuv24/w400-h264/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Presented are five top priorities for the new minister. None are particularly expensive yet they together would make a big difference to how useful public transport would be in the Greater Dandenong area. </p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-88009616917281244342023-10-03T22:35:00.017+11:002023-10-04T07:05:56.687+11:00The Allan government's new transport ministers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiptm-uu6sItXas-2HWK_enYttvYzQ3Z7vGQJFAjCLz5yL-XU1n36cjaMTDCC9RWg5wIxrwRwkWrviEZfdTwgDazpSqm4mIB3lz0zCsKZg027gQuOptQerYYHPDiRZXpjGTmNNcVkh1jvFGRBySnwVTg2CT4d3_2LG45US0P4toIwmdkn1D5OSu/s468/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="468" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiptm-uu6sItXas-2HWK_enYttvYzQ3Z7vGQJFAjCLz5yL-XU1n36cjaMTDCC9RWg5wIxrwRwkWrviEZfdTwgDazpSqm4mIB3lz0zCsKZg027gQuOptQerYYHPDiRZXpjGTmNNcVkh1jvFGRBySnwVTg2CT4d3_2LG45US0P4toIwmdkn1D5OSu/w400-h278/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;">With Jacinta Allan becoming premier and Ben Carroll deputy premier (and Minister for Education), it was inevitable that there were going to be changes in who oversees transport after the resignation of Daniel Andrews. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Hence it's a welcome to <a href="https://new.parliament.vic.gov.au/members/danny-pearson/">Essendon MLA Danny Pearson</a> who adds Transport Infrastructure and the Suburban Rail Loop to his Assistant Treasurer role and <a href="https://new.parliament.vic.gov.au/members/gabrielle-williams/">Dandenong MLA Gabrielle Williams</a> who becomes the Minister for Public and Active Transport, replacing Ben Carroll in the public transport role. Ministers Melissa Horne retains roads, Sonya Kilkenny retains planning and Josh Bull retains his parliamentary secretary role. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">I expect Mr Pearson to bring his financial management background to major transport projects, whose costs are escalating due to labour, materials and rising interest rates. The fact that other countries (and even other states) can build transport infrastructure cheaper than we can also needs a good hard look. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">As for public transport services, we don't yet know what Ms Williams has in mind. However there is mounting community demands for service increases, given V/Line weekend crowding, embarrassingly long evening Metro train waits, changing post-pandemic travel patterns and a backlog in 7 day bus services in new and established suburbs alike. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: large;">Legacy of recent past ministers</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Before we start on all that, let's look at recent past ministers (earlier ones <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/05/victorias-transport-ministers.html">discussed here</a>). <br /><br />Previous premier Daniel Andrews and current premier (then transport minister) Jacinta Allan are most identified with 'Big Build' policies, especially in transport, after Labor's 2014 victory. Everything was about major project-based infrastructure, most notably the Metro Tunnel, level crossing removals and most ambitiously, the Suburban Rail Loop. Service, planning and network reform matters, despite being the most cost-effective measures to immediately improve public transport, were sidelined, as <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/07/timetable-tuesday-83-metro-train.html">explained here</a>. I discussed the Andrews government's record at keeping its promises (up to 2022) <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/10/has-state-labor-kept-its-transport.html">here</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Reform of ministerial arrangements after the 2018 election brought first time MP <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/01/testing-times-for-minister-horne.html">Melissa Horne straight into the public transport portfolio</a>. This time coincided with 'peak infrastructure', still handled by Jacinta Allan, with little progress on the service side. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The Adem Somyurek affair brought ruptions to the government that resulted in the ministerial reshuffle that brought Ben Carroll to the public transport portfolio. <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/03/timetable-tuesday-107-by-coincidence-or.html">Sometimes seen riding public transport</a>, Mr Carroll immediately said that <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/06/whats-bigger-than-metro-tunnel-but-has.html">improving the long-neglected bus network was a priority</a> with wide benefits and high returns for the money spent. Well-regarded by stakeholders, he presided over the introduction of minimum passing distance laws around bikes, launched <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/06/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_02145429271.html">Victoria's Bus Plan</a> in 2021 and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/09/a-quick-look-at-melbournes-tram-plan.html">Victoria's Tram Plan</a> two years later. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">It became permissible again to talk about bus network reform with modest upgrades funded in the 2021 and 2022 state budgets. However a tight budgetary environment, a continued reluctance to fund service initiatives and shifting attention to items like bus recontracting and electrification <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/bus-plan-turns-two-still-alive.html">made service reform marginal</a> once again, with <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-24-state-budget-special-what-do.html">little extra funded in the 2023 state budget</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">To put it crudely, the big projects that Jacinta Allan touched got money (often billions) while smaller (but very cost-effective) initiatives in Ben Carroll's area seemed to be 'frozen out' of the government's agenda. Greater support for these in party caucus and cabinet would have helped, but the infrastructure-first tendency remained strong, especially in the dominant Socialist Left faction (which gained numbers since some <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/02/right-aligned-labor-mps-switch-to-left-faction-as-daniel-andrews-unveils-new-cabinet">switched to it</a> just after the 2022 election). Young Labor, in the party's organisational wing, does however back improved PT service, with a <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1702957745425764592">motion recently carried</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Power relationships in the bureaucracy also seemed to have shifted with the new Department of Transport being bigger (though less influential on service matters) than the old but more targeted PTV, with infrastructure project agencies having sway reflecting their large budgets under this government. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The department was further enlarged after the 2022 election with it incorporating Planning (hence DTP) with minister Sonya Kilkenny. Ms Allan's title was subtly <a href="https://new.parliament.vic.gov.au/members/jacinta-allan/">expanded from 'Transport Infrastructure' to 'Transport and Infrastructure'</a>, which along with her gaining the Deputy Premier role, strengthened her (and infrastructure's) dominance of the portfolio. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Mr Carroll appeared to have a win for his seat when the scope of the Airport Rail project was expanded to include a much-demanded station at Keilor East but this became embarrassing when it was announced that airport rail's fate was subject to a federal review. The post-2022 election reshuffle retained him in public transport but swapped roads for wider industry portfolio roles, effectively weakening his coverage of transport matters. It seemed that he could have his bus plan but not the funding to properly implement it. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Although the Andrews government attracted criticism from what you might call transport's 'serious experts' (<a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/integrated-transport-planning">including the Auditor-General</a>) for lacking an overarching transport plan, it could at least argue that (at least until recently) it had a better record than the Cain/Kirner and Bracks/Brumby governments in <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/10/has-state-labor-kept-its-transport.html">doing what it said it promised</a>, even if some things done presented opportunity costs. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: large;">Opportunities for the new Public and Active Transport Minister</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">There's quite a few. With the Bus and Tram plans, the agenda (especially the problems to be solved) is sketched out in more detail than was the case three years ago when Ben Carroll took over. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">On the debit side, interest costs are biting and the budget is increasingly under pressure. While that may make recurrent funding for service increases hard to find, the good news is that the amounts involved are relatively small and initiatives can be targeted to areas of greatest need or patronage potential. And where it's simple operating hours and weekend frequency upgrades on existing routes you are not subject to delays due to public consultation or fleet expansions. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Cost-effective service upgrades in the 2024 Budget</span></b><br /><br />Of particular interest to Ms Williams will be that pretty much on Day 1 of her ministry DTP will already be <a href="https://www.dtf.vic.gov.au/state-budget/budget-process-victoria">planning its agenda for the May 2024 State Budget</a>, before initiatives go to the Expenditure Review Subcommittee. Therefore, in the words of her friend and former premier, "there is not a moment to waste". <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Practical transport service agenda for the Mulgrave by-election</span></b><br /><br />In relation to bus service levels, the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/tt-184-how-dandenong-got-short-changed.html">minister's seat of Dandenong</a> is also the least served when considering the proportion of routes that operate 7 days to minimum service standards. Politically this is of immediate interest as 4 out of 6 Dandenong's non-seven day routes (800, 802, 804 & 814) also serve the ex-premier's seat of Mulgrave with a by-election soon. Seven day service upgrades would send a signal that the government cares about local services and is willing to invest in improvements (like better transport) that improve access to jobs and address cost of living issues. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Tackling long term issues for public transport</span></b></p><div style="text-align: justify;">Seven key issues are detailed in my <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/12/7-ticking-transport-timebombs-that-dot.html">December 2022 item here</a>. All remain relevant today. In summary these include:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>(1) </b>There have indeed been crowding issues on some V/Line services, especially since the fare drop. You don't want people left behind, especially if it's a long wait to the next train. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>(2)</b> Metro trains continue to have below-par service, notably evenings and Sunday mornings on most lines including the minister's own of Dandenong. Removing 40 and then 30 minute waits would be top priorities here with only a small per cent increase in the number of weekly trains run needed.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>(3) </b>Bus service backlog in high needs areas of which the Mulgrave-Dandenong area is perhaps the epicentre on some measures, despite recording <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/tt-184-how-dandenong-got-short-changed.html">high average usage</a> on the bus services that do run.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>(4) </b>Tram delays and accessibility issues.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>(5)</b> Issues with V/Line service delivery, though we no longer have to worry about the Comm Games. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>(6)</b> Cost control of major projects and a need to identify and fix network inefficiencies to afford more widely beneficial service uplifts. <br /><b>(7) </b>Falling fare compliance, with a deterioration on buses (especially) from the pandemic when they went cashless with on-bus top ups via card also unavailable. <br /><br />Added to this are the operational challenges of bringing the Metro Tunnel to fruition in 2025 along with complementary train, tram and bus network changes. Along with continued effort to make travel as good as it can be for those whose travel will be affected by the continuing program of level crossing removals and other major projects. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: large;">Opposition changes also</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />The state opposition has also had a reshuffle of some of its portfolios including transport. Former leader Matthew Guy takes over the public transport role from Richard Riordan. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="background-color: #fcff01; font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I look forward to Mr Pearson's and Ms Williams' periods as transport portfolio ministers and trust that they will be able to preside over network reforms and service expansions necessary to make public transport more useful for more people for more trips. </div><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-72702453449293924282023-09-28T15:11:00.006+10:002023-09-28T15:28:48.398+10:00UN 164: Better transport in Mulgrave (6 point plan)<p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZZqxFWGvd2XrhX67rPm8SvxKSnt0nx8NhQNuH-ItRLCqJXIburHX3bYRErAA_CeG9weTp_S0Ln324Spl3mQBBBDWXAAdy347nWox1TkMJY_y0EKpP_gQu7pDFdb9vJxfBF9y8gilF82-U1zWIpbfV1vu_lvl_7gIXEXRpCqqPVDQjQGks4zAv/s444/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="378" data-original-width="444" height="341" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZZqxFWGvd2XrhX67rPm8SvxKSnt0nx8NhQNuH-ItRLCqJXIburHX3bYRErAA_CeG9weTp_S0Ln324Spl3mQBBBDWXAAdy347nWox1TkMJY_y0EKpP_gQu7pDFdb9vJxfBF9y8gilF82-U1zWIpbfV1vu_lvl_7gIXEXRpCqqPVDQjQGks4zAv/w400-h341/temp.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">This week's resignation of Daniel Andrews as premier since 2014 and member for Mulgrave since 2002 creates an opportunity for improved public transport in an area that has never had very much. The opportunity is perhaps amplified because we now have a deputy premier who strongly supports bus service upgrades, even saying that <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2231785837122895">a dollar invested in service returns five dollars to the community</a>. </div><p style="text-align: justify;"><br />For those who don't know it, Mulgrave is an almost square-shaped seat in Melbourne's mostly 1950s - 1980s (then) outer south-eastern suburbs. Ferntree Gully Rd forms its northern boundary with Heatherton Rd to its south. The east and west boundaries aren't quite as straight but roughly align with Westall Rd and East-west Link. Key suburbs include Springvale, Noble Park, Noble Park North, Wheelers Hill and Mulgrave, its namesake. Average incomes vary greatly from very low to high, generally increasing from south to north. The seat, especially its southern half, is very diverse, with a high proportion of families speaking languages other than English at home. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Ever since it urbanised the seat (and its predecessors) have been safe Labor. While there is no party with a primary vote that rivals Labor, the latter's primary vote has been falling. Such a swing away from the major parties has been particularly notable in high average income inner suburban seats (which returned 'teal' independents or Greens in the 2022 federal election) and low average income ethnically diverse outer suburban seats (most notable in parts of Melbourne's west, north and south-east). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YJ-miW2yn5Q" width="320" youtube-src-id="YJ-miW2yn5Q"></iframe></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">You could watch the above video, but to put it in a nutshell, major parties took the latter areas for granted. Liberals considered they'd not win them while Labor (including in government) regarded these areas as its own and directed funding for services to more marginal areas such as the Frankston line sandbelt.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To take a transport example, while all of Bentleigh East's buses got 7 day service about 15 years ago, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/tt-184-how-dandenong-got-short-changed.html">only about half of those in Dandenong</a> did despite high social needs in the latter area. And, due to a preoccupation with infrastructure, the roll-out of 7 day service has ground almost to a halt with 'safe' Labor seats that missed out last time falling even further behind. <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/10/our-13-most-service-short-changed.html">Mulgrave is a classic example</a>, with five bus routes not operating 7 days despite all recording above average usage on the days that they do operate. My 2022 election write-up on Mulgrave is <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/02/election-2022-special-public-transport.html">here</a>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><b><span style="font-size: large;">Existing public transport services in Mulgrave</span></b><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">What public transport exists in Mulgrave now? The Dandenong line serves the south-west of the seat. This has had significant level crossing removals at Springvale and Noble Park to general acclaim. There have also been some improvements to train timetables, though waits on weekend evenings and Sunday mornings remain long. This line will run through to the capacity-increasing Metro Tunnel but actual service levels are as yet unknown. Westall, Springvale, Sandown Park and Noble Park are the four stations nearest to Mulgrave residents, though some in the north may use the Glen Waverley line. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">The rest of the Mulgrave seat has buses. The highest served routes are the 900 on Wellington Rd between Caulfield and Rowville and the 902 on Springvale Rd. Both get above average usage but weekend frequency on both is low for premium routes, with 30 minute gaps typical. Local Mulgrave bus routes typically operate every 30 to 120 minutes and may not run evenings, Sundays and even Saturdays. As noted above failure to meet minimum service standards for buses is more prevalent in Mulgrave than elsewhere. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">A six point transport plan for Mulgrave</span></b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Quite a bit can be done for public transport in Mulgrave. Some areas have complex, indirect and overlapping bus routes that could be simplified. Key examples being the 802/804/862 along Wellington Rd and the 631, 813, 814 and 848 along Police Rd. The 802/804/862 should be <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/06/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">relatively simple to reform</a> while Police Rd probably requires a larger local bus network review. These can be drawn out affairs and an election campaign isn't necessarily the best time for such deliberations. Especially if you want 'quick wins' that fix the most pressing issues now. <br /><br />Such issues include short operating hours unsuitable for the times that many people wish to travel, a lack of 7 day service, crowding on busy routes (notably Springvale Rd) and long waits at certain times even on busy lines and routes. The good news is that all of these are fixable by working the existing fleet harder for more of the week on existing lines and routes, with the main expenditure being additional rostered driver hours. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Such a plan would have benefits across almost the entire seat, as mapped below: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRG4KgrqaE-rL-XdXykNsexmiRxcQ9957Bc3UxmFq8e1iHawd3eety6za7fdK2XKz6ga8mS_dWLSZdz3GSmQKQIJIMm5X2nMmt1iXKWheZM1DH9bzhNxEW5p-6mCFepwkGS3x7r0p83OfkbVhfQLXJD-zai1MGR1-ShVBKWzf4fmSmiK1BOHSB/s453/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="453" data-original-width="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRG4KgrqaE-rL-XdXykNsexmiRxcQ9957Bc3UxmFq8e1iHawd3eety6za7fdK2XKz6ga8mS_dWLSZdz3GSmQKQIJIMm5X2nMmt1iXKWheZM1DH9bzhNxEW5p-6mCFepwkGS3x7r0p83OfkbVhfQLXJD-zai1MGR1-ShVBKWzf4fmSmiK1BOHSB/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>In more detail, the six initiatives could be: </div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>1. Route 800 upgrade. </b>Would gain longer hours (to at least 9pm) and new Sunday service. As this is a main road route serving major centres at Chadstone and Dandenong, a 20 minute weekend frequency is suggested (matching the 893 along a portion of Princes Hwy further out). As <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/10/introducing-fix800bus-alliance.html">Melbourne's busiest bus without 7 day service</a>, this upgrade would be the highest priority of the six for Mulgrave (and has certainly been the <a href="https://fix800bus.com">most publicised</a>). </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>2. Route 814 7 day upgrade. </b>Would gain longer hours and new Saturday afternoon and Sunday service. An hourly frequency appears low but reflects the existing weekday and Saturday morning timetable. It would also enable co-scheduling with the partly overlapping 848 to provide a combined 30 minute service on sections. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>3. Route 802/804 7 day upgrade. </b>Route 802 would gain new Saturday and Sunday service while 804 would gain improved Saturday afternoon and new Sunday service. Operating hours would also be extended to 9pm. We suggest hourly weekend service on each route with the timetable offset with Route 862 to provide a 20 minute combined frequency on the overlap. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>4. Route 885 7 day upgrade. </b>Would gain an extension of operating hours to 9pm and a new Sunday service. Hourly suggested to match existing Saturday service levels and meet minimum service standards. A later network review in the area may have scope to increase frequencies further. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>5. Route 902 15 minute frequency 7 days on Springvale Rd.</b> Route 902 SmartBus currently operates every 15 minutes on weekdays and 30 min weekends. This is a busy corridor and weekend crowding can ensue on parts of the route. We suggestion the addition of short trips every 30 min between Nunawading and the Keysborough depot to to provide a combined 15 min service during the day. 9pm to midnight Sunday evening service would also be desirable on this section. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>6. Dandenong line frequency upgrade to a 20 min maximum wait. </b>This is Melbourne's busiest rail line with Springvale one of its busier stations. Service is currently 10 min during the day (7 days) but there is a sharp drop to 30 min on weekend evenings. Sunday morning service is also half-hourly. A worthwhile and relatively economical upgrade would be to add trips so maximum waits at these times are 20 minutes - same as that on the quieter Frankston, Werribee and Williamstown lines. This upgrade would move the Dandenong line nearer to a true turn-up-and-go service across the day, though ultimately the aim should be 10 minute maximum waits at least as far as Dandenong. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The above forms the basis of an affordable transport upgrade agenda for Mulgrave. It's not complete but it does cover matters of most immediate importance, including completion of the minimum standards roll-out (promised in 2006) and 7 day frequent Springvale Rd service. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Subsequent stages could include frequency boosts for Route 900 on Wellington Rd, the abovementioned 802/804/862 simplification, a Police Rd corridor review (including a direct Centre Rd route to Clayton) and a start on a Monash - Dandenong frequent route on Heatherton Rd as per the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/07/un-135-future-frequent-network.html">Future Frequent Network</a>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Candidates and advocates may wish to consider it when shaping their policies for the by-election. The increased attention given to Mulgrave in the next couple of months will give a welcome opportunity for transport services to have a higher profile than they did in last November's general election. And, as you saw above, Mulgrave most definitely needs it! <br /><br /></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">More on the Mulgrave by-election</span></b></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Antony Green's <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023">election analysis page</a></span></p><p><a href="https://www.facebook.com/Fix800Bus"><span style="font-size: medium;">#Fix800Bus on Facebook</span></a></p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_26.html">Index to other Useful Network items</a></span></b></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-4356583243879405332023-09-17T06:00:00.096+10:002023-09-17T07:45:47.858+10:00Top 5 priorities for Transport Equity Week<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-CM8U3FjRMs0ONwTZVfMa6Wf2_Ls9iTqTy8_KvbWL1_e5ELxcROFeKuzi4NKLNQkklZ_uYItJwFTRFiNUJ_SVw2P3gdrfBSCSUX7wO_5ABY9bmMNiEgIrXbmgHHKQull69UFXBl5GI89mL06dRzE4K3-SVD5Ev4suEdWmGgUfdIRWmx3iGTXk/s313/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="184" data-original-width="313" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-CM8U3FjRMs0ONwTZVfMa6Wf2_Ls9iTqTy8_KvbWL1_e5ELxcROFeKuzi4NKLNQkklZ_uYItJwFTRFiNUJ_SVw2P3gdrfBSCSUX7wO_5ABY9bmMNiEgIrXbmgHHKQull69UFXBl5GI89mL06dRzE4K3-SVD5Ev4suEdWmGgUfdIRWmx3iGTXk/s1600/temp.PNG" width="313" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>17 to 23 September 2023 is <a href="https://transportequity.org.au/">Transport Equity Week</a>. <br /><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">I discuss transport equity quite a bit here. Examples include my look at the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/06/five-ways-melbournes-public-transport.html">systemic inequity of current routes and timetables</a>, the extent to which existing service priorities entrench poverty traps with <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/08/making-our-public-transport-network-job.html">routes and timetables that are not 'job ready</a>', <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/11/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_27.html">priority service upgrades to new social housing developments</a> and, more recently, the case of <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/06/tt-184-how-dandenong-got-short-changed.html">most diverse but least served Greater Dandenong</a>. </div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">With cost of living pressures hurting demographics that one might consider 'middle class', equity issues are no longer just a 'poor people thing' that governments (especially Labor) could safely ignore with no electoral consequences. Especially with the collapsing major party primary vote in areas that were previously 'taken for granted' (Labor) or 'not our people' (Liberal). </p><p style="text-align: justify;">I'm talking the likes of Dandenong and Broadmeadows where there are neighbourhoods whose buses have not had a single trip added for 30 years or more despite high patronage, strong social needs and the routes being passed over when there was last a serious upgrade program about 15 years ago. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Young Labor has recently cottoned on to this, <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1702957745425764592">passing a motion</a> backing train frequency upgrades (especially in Melbourne's north and west) as well as reformed routes and minimum service standards (ie 7 day operation) on buses. It remains to be seen whether the senior party, parliamentary party and most critically the cabinet take heed. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">As well as a service existing, it must also be accessible. That means being able to cross the road to get to stops and once you're at a stop being able to board a vehicle (a <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/10/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_16.html">particular issue with trams</a>). </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Service and accessibility themes feature in Transport Equity Week events <a href="https://transportequity.org.au/getinvolved/">being held around Australia</a>. Of interest was that the idea for local activity in Melbourne came from a <a href="https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1702297344396742865">chance meeting with Minister Carroll at a post-election function</a>. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">So what are the service-related measures that would further transport equity in Melbourne? <br /><br />Here's my top five.<br /><br /><b>1. 7 day buses in high needs areas that currently lack them. </b>The most notable gaps exist in Dandenong but attention is also needed in areas like Glenroy, Thomastown/Lalor, Campbellfield, Croydon/Lilydale, Frankston, Knox and more. That's good for equity as currently the only after 7pm or Sunday transport some neighbourhoods in these areas have are expensive taxis/ubers. <br /><br /><b>2. Faster roll-out of bus routes in new estates without them. </b>Eg the likes of Mt Atkinson, Mambourin and Thornhill Park. Having even a basic bus service assists with cost of living pressures as it enables more households to get by without a second or third car (which the RACV recently told is is expensive). </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>3. Completion of missing bus links that would speed access to jobs. </b>Some cross-suburban trips require needless backtracking and thus take too long to be a practical commute despite the short distances involved. Examples include Tarneit - Laverton North, Sunshine - Melbourne Airport, La Trobe University to Swinburne via Chandler Hwy, La Trobe University to Caulfield via Camberwell, Dandenong South to Keysborough and Narre Warren to name just a few. <br /><br /><b>4. Progressively cutting 40 and then 30 minute waits on trains to deliver 20 minute maximum waits across the network all week. </b>This would particularly benefit those who don't work standard M-F 9-5 jobs (disproportionately the 'working poor' service sector). Especially those who need to be somewhere at a particular time or making connections. Areas with the longest waits for trains are the west, north and outer east. This is incredibly cheap to do and should be a prelude to more widespread all day 10 minute service. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>5. Various active transport and accessibility works</b> to improve connectivity to and between transport modes and suburban centres. Could include bus and tram priority measures, roundabout removals, placing bus stops nearer intersections, new pedestrian crossings, etc. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Many of these are cost-effective, whether it's working existing trains or buses harder or doing small works that if replicated would deliver last and very cost-effective connectivity and access gains. And often it's not even a case of choosing between equity and patronage goals - there are high patronage growth potential instances (eg Craigieburn line trains and Dandenong area buses) where boosting service furthers both without needing to compromise. </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Have any other thoughts? Please leave them in the comments below. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18909424.post-33083769524748939192023-09-14T06:00:00.525+10:002023-09-15T20:11:49.393+10:00UN 163: Deakin Uni area bus reform starts next month<p></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiljW-ScGxN7vYef-E4Z7V6jOiMW3rYnAxX37U5Ksd1HZBJuqSXziz0M1-5qPa_fnQb4zYlE2YCqpBBV97DIXSKcjcvV1rFTHYmqObvlBXncOgSz-2WIozAayNKb0JHgJBALfm61lvuhf6vIe63ZMMLjx9P75th639mdZ3r-cMWFYN9OGLUgF3j/s320/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="298" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiljW-ScGxN7vYef-E4Z7V6jOiMW3rYnAxX37U5Ksd1HZBJuqSXziz0M1-5qPa_fnQb4zYlE2YCqpBBV97DIXSKcjcvV1rFTHYmqObvlBXncOgSz-2WIozAayNKb0JHgJBALfm61lvuhf6vIe63ZMMLjx9P75th639mdZ3r-cMWFYN9OGLUgF3j/s1600/temp.PNG" width="298" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>More than expected bus service improvements are coming to Melbourne's eastern suburbs a month tomorrow. The news broke last night via a <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/more-services-more-often-university-bus-network">media release on the premier's website</a>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The changes implement <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-victorian-state-budget-shifts-to.html">Deakin University network reforms funded in 2022's state budget</a> . Not only that but there will be some 'greater good' timetable changes similar to that <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/09/timetable-tuesday-133-907-biggest.html">done on the then Transdev network in 2021</a>. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The timetables go online tomorrow. However there's enough in the media release to provide some tentative views, which I will do so later. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">The changes</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">First of all, what's changing? </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>* 201 Box Hill - Deakin shuttle boosted.</b> Will be improved from every 20 to every 15 minutes with the service also running on Orientation Week. This will be close to cost-neutral as two duplicative Box Hill - Deakin routes will be deleted. These include the entirety of the 768 and the southern portion of Route 281. However as compensation Route 281's early weeknight finish time will be extended a little to 7pm making it more useful as a feeder to get people home. The 201/768 duplication has <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/02/timetable-tuesday-12-why-two-isnt.html">long been a network inefficiency</a> so it's great to see this sorted out. Some 281 users will be upset that they lose their one-seat ride from High St Lower Templestowe to Deakin Uni but I think reform could have gone further, <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/07/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_19.html">cost-effectively merging 281 and 293 to provide a 15 minute weekday/30 minute weekend service</a> in conjunction with Montmorency/Greensborough area changes that could have been coordinated with the Hurstbridge Line Duplication project (and new stations). </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>* <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/un-125-delivering-for-deakin-with-903.html">Route 903 routed via Deakin Uni</a> with extra Saturday morning short trips added.</b> The Deakin route alteration was expected. However the Saturday morning improvement came out of the blue and should partly remedy some historical errors on a high demand route about which more will be said later. <br /><br /><b>* <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/tt-162-route-766-enabling-smartbus.html">Route 766</a> to run more frequently on Saturdays, gain Sunday service and be run via Union Station.</b> These are welcome changes. As <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/tt-162-route-766-enabling-smartbus.html">discussed here</a>, this timetable upgrade pretty much had to be done as otherwise some in its catchment would be too heavily disadvantaged by having the rerouted 903 taken away from them. It is also heartening that Route 766 will at last be rerouted to serve the new Union Station, something </span><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2020/12/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html" style="text-align: left;">discussed here</a><span style="text-align: left;"> but not done at the time. 766's upgrade will also give the area its first 7 day bus route as others like 284 and 612 do not run Sundays. </span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br />* <b>Route 271 to operate 7 days.</b> Another surprise but very welcome. Route 271 has significant unique coverage and <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/07/timetable-tuesday-33-271-to-orchards.html">I considered 7 day service essential</a>, even if it was at the <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2021/09/timetable-tuesday-133-907-biggest.html">expense of frequency on other days of the week</a>. We'll know tomorrow if it has had timetable changes on the other days to help fund it. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Trade-offs</span></b><br /><br />What are the two big stories of these changes? <br /><br />Firstly I would have expected the 201 Box Hill - Deakin shuttle to operate every 10 minutes rather than every 15 minutes as advised. A 10 minute service is much more 'turn up and go' with people relying less on timetables. It is also more marketable as waits longer than that would cause people to consider other routes, making the service offer more complex. Other key university shuttles have a 10 minute or better service including the 301, 401 and 601. <br /><br />However I can also see why they opted for 15 minutes. Deakin is a smaller campus than the others. Deakin already has the recently upgraded 767 to Box Hill and will soon have the 903 also, both comprising 7 trips per hour. Adding a 201 every 15 minutes would boost that to 11 trips per hour, which DTP might have considered sufficient, despite not all Deakin stops being served by all routes. Also, unlike other train lines that other university shuttles serve, trains at Box Hill operate on a base 15 minute frequency, making a well-timed 15 minute shuttle potentially OK. And, especially for Box Hill - Deakin trips there may be scope to stagger a 15 minute shuttle to operate at times offset with the 903, creating a 7.5 min combined service, especially if stops are closely spaced at Box Hill interchange and adequate information exists. <br /><br />If the Deakin shuttle was less service than some might have assumed, the busy 903 on Saturdays via <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/08/un-161-top-priority-bus-upgrades-for.html">Chadstone Shopping Centre</a> is a case of more. Why is this important? These changes may <i>start</i> to unravel a historical error that's existed for the better part of 15 years. First some background. <br /><br />Before the long 903 Altona - Mordialloc orbital there was the shorter Box Hill - Mordialloc Route 700. This was at one time Melbourne's busiest bus route (at least amongst the private operators) and got upgraded to SmartBus status in 2005. The Saturday timetable then featured three buses per hour, ie a 20 minute service typically meshing with trains at the time. The SmartBus orbitals (of which 700 was to become a part) received 30 minute frequencies on weekends. As well as being poor for a premium route this did not mesh well with trains then every 20 minutes. However there was a will to at least retain previous frequencies so the eastern part of the 903 retained its 3 buses per hour with the northern and western portions at 2 buses per hour. That meant an uneven Saturday timetable with a mixture of 15 and 30 minute waits that was arguably inferior to the consistent 20 minute headway that it replaced. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRo9VNQ6YgC4ESrJpynsHqIgBSBUZeAujG5GsyT-FhaBaXVkYiXlxv7-bcBrFa4Zauc-C7XrHGvQLyY5PkQIbZXfMIWWLi0f8G0uq5pU0lVX56AuD_KxhfV2w2yyUAUPsyW1MARrOvCXUubrkyb5IaYTGqt4hiV7ASdU52iyYguj9Qdmxbzozh/s444/temp.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRo9VNQ6YgC4ESrJpynsHqIgBSBUZeAujG5GsyT-FhaBaXVkYiXlxv7-bcBrFa4Zauc-C7XrHGvQLyY5PkQIbZXfMIWWLi0f8G0uq5pU0lVX56AuD_KxhfV2w2yyUAUPsyW1MARrOvCXUubrkyb5IaYTGqt4hiV7ASdU52iyYguj9Qdmxbzozh/s16000/temp.PNG" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">We won't know for sure the 903 Saturday improvements until we see the timetable. But if one extra short trip per hour was inserted then the busy eastern portion via Chadstone could improve to 4 trips per hour with an even 15 minute frequency. If this is the case then it would represent a significant improvement for the times that it applies. The release says morning though ideally this 15 minute service would, like on the 907, apply on Saturday afternoons and Sundays as well. However this requires operational funding and a few million for this is harder to find than a few billion of capex. Still, it's a start and indicates the beginning of an appreciation of what needs to be done. <br /><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">Unfinished business</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Every bus reform package (and I do regard these changes as genuine bus reform) has boundaries where still desirable changes are out of scope. Those most notable for this package include: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">* 7 day frequent service on Route 903. This requires extending what (I think) is being done on Saturday mornings to Saturday afternoons and then Sundays to deliver a 15 minute frequency on (say) the Mentone - Heidelberg portion of this route. It adds a lot of route kilometres but would provide the first genuinely frequent 7 day orbital route for Melbourne's east. Such a service could even cover the north to as far west as Coburg if <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/11/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">consolidation in Melbourne's north along with the largely duplicative 527 is implemented</a>. Even a cheaper version, involving a 20 rather than a 15 minute version of the above on weekends, could represent a step forward, though ultimately a 7 day 10-15 minute service remains a better fit for major orbital routes. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">* A new High St Templestowe Lower bus every 15 minutes by <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/07/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_19.html">merging the 293 with the 281 as discussed here</a>. Requires some Montmorency/Greensborough area reforms. Economy and connectivity would be best served if this was associated with <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/10/building-melbournes-useful-network-part.html">901 and 902 orbital reform in the north-east</a> to provide a new frequent Doncaster - Greensborough connection via a reformed 902 with the duplicative portion of 901 being replaced by (say) a Pines Shopping Centre to Heidelberg east-west route. Presumably the currently underway <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/09/un-137-bus-network-reviews-coming-to.html">north-east Melbourne bus review</a> (announced <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/major-review-buses-melbournes-north-and-north-east">exactly 1 year ago today</a>) will examine bus networks in this area. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></div></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Overall these look a good package of changes even though the extra service kilometre resources added appears small. It is particularly encouraging that DTP has used this opportunity to introduce other cost-effective reforms including boosted 903 Saturday service and 7 day operation on the 271 along with the previously budgeted Deakin-specific measures. <br /><br />These are exactly the type of incremental service optimisations that <a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2023/07/un-159-5-word-secret-to-faster-bus.html">DTP should be implementing at a far faster rate like Perth does</a>. This would maximise benefits from constrained service funding and facilitate future wider reforms including simpler and more frequent routes. <br /><br />The timetables should be available tomorrow, with services commencing a month later on 15 October. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">15/9/2023 post script - new timetables</span></b></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>201 </b><span style="text-align: left;">Every 15 min from 7am until just before 10pm. Approximately 15 min trip time. PDF on PTV website has major error in footnote referring to Monash & Clayton (which 201 doesn't serve). Also box re operating days is unhelpful. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>271</b> Introduces an hourly Sunday service. Saturday service remains every 30 min. Span meets minimum service standards on all days of the week. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>281 </b>6-7pm weeknight evening service improved with all trips going their full route and one or two later trips added. Saturday timetable substantially unchanged and there remains no Sunday service. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>766 </b>Saturday service upgraded to every 30 min. New Sunday service every 40 min. Evening service typically every 30 min on all nights of the week. Span improved to meet minimum service standards on all days of the week. </p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>903</b> Saturday morning times 'massaged' to provide approx 25 minute headway from Altona with shorter average waits at Chadstone (15-20 min) but still lumpy timetable. Morning departures at Mordialloc improved to approx every 20 min but spacings increase with distance over the morning as traffic volumes rise. Route is basically too long to schedule evenly with varying run times. <br /><br />PTV write-up <a href="https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/footer/about-ptv/improvements-and-projects/bus-and-coach/better-buses-for-deakin-burwood-and-box-hill/">here</a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p><a href="https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2019/04/building-melbournes-useful-network-part_26.html"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here</b></span></a><br /><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">This item was written by Peter Parker www.melbourneontransit.blogspot.com</div>Peter Parkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413976934040474125noreply@blogger.com3