UN 175: 3 steps to revive bus reform in Melbourne's north

Three years ago today Victoria's Bus Plan strongly affirmed the need for bus network reform. 

Pursuant to this bus network reviews for Melbourne's north and north-east were announced just before the 2022 state election. The Department of Transport set up a bus reform team and public consultation happened the following year. 

Unfortunately implementation stalled. What little funding the 2023-24 or 2024-25 state budgets had for new bus services went elsewhere. DTP may well have produced worthy business cases proposing bus reform but they cut no ice with those who control spending (ie ministerial, expenditure review committee and/or treasury level). 

The recent record shows that DTP has protected us from batty ideas by using its gatekeeping role for good. Examples include Infrastructure Victoria's silly modal fare schemes or sparse grid bus network proposals that would have increased dependence on flexible routes (that are demonstrated failures everyone now rightly wants to scrap). The most recent GAIC round that got significant temporary funding for growth area buses would also have lifted DTP's spirits. 

But winning ongoing budget funding for new and reformed services on any metropolitan PT mode remains an acute challenge for DTP, with too few with power yet convinced (despite continuing embarrassments like 30 minute evening train frequencies or sparse weekend bus services). 

Departmental staffing budgets have tightened with LinkedIn, like an airport, announcing many departures. Significant attention is going towards what passengers would see as second and third order issues like bus electrification, operator recontracting and latterly myki ticketing replacement troubles that have less bearing on the system's capabilities than service and network reform would.   

With such distractions, it would seem that the large-scale bus network reform as envisaged in  2021's Victoria's Bus Plan stopped before it really got started. It is entering its fourth year but the promised Bus Reform Implementation Plan has yet to materialise. Meanwhile the Northern Councils Alliance did their own (very good) Northern Region Transport Study, perhaps partly inspired by VTAG's Networking the North. 

If anything's going to happen it will likely be baby steps. Occasionally you can get coverage benefits just by adjusting a single route with no operating cost or even scheduling implications. The Morwell Avenue south Dandenong case presented last week is a great example. 

More common though are instances where reforming one route requires changes to others. Otherwise you risk creating other problems like unacceptable coverage gaps or inefficient overlaps propagating across a large multi-route area. 

When faced with that the default action for a low-productivity outfit reliant on cottage-industry processes is to put the idea aside. Before you know it a decade or more has passed before the idea is dusted off again, with the network having become even less fit for purpose.   

To revive bus network reform in the north (after two successive state budgets apparently rebuffed anything much from DTP for this) we might have to consider what is easiest rather than what is best. 

While not ideal, doing this beats doing nothing. And an entrée serving that tidies the straggly undergrowth can clear the fog and simplify the recipe for future main courses, like the Bus Plan's proposed frequent rapid routes or even Airport Rail and Suburban Rail Loop precursor buses. 

Simple and cheap are the two pre-requisites to revive bus reform traction.

Simple means being self-contained, uncontroversial and involving only a handful of routes free of  knock-on effects. Cheap means basically redistributing existing annual service kilometres, although there will be unavoidable one-off set up costs.    

Below are three examples that could meet both requirements. Each reforms one middle level direct 'connector' style route and one or two related neighbourhood routes. Such a phased approach is similar to the steps in the Victorian Transport Action Group's Networking the North and many of my Building Melbourne's Useful Network items. But if several are done in a stepped program then the overall result can be quite substantial.  

Package 1: Epping Plaza & South Morang connectivity 

Problem: Existing Route 556 backtracks in a confusing loop that slows travel to the area's biggest shopping and health hub. Its 22 minute headway does not mesh with trains every 20 minutes. Its alignment hasn't changed for many decades despite the extension of trains past Epping to South Morang and the growth of travel to the Epping Plaza/hospital precinct area.   

Potential solution: Straighten 556 and boost service to every 20 min to match trains (ideally also for Route 555). Add new South Morang - Epping Plaza Route 576 scheduled in conjunction with revised 577 to retain coverage. 576 and 577 would operate at local style frequencies, ideally with times staggered to maximise frequency to areas walkable from both. More here.

Resource implications: Achievable with current bus fleet. Should be possible with current service kilometres, especially if adjustments are made to Route 577's timetable.  

Package 2: Campbellfield 7 days, better Hume Hwy jobs access & Coburg connection 

Problem: Existing routes 531 and 538 do not run 7 days and have weak termini. This gives residential Campbellfield two routes with poor operating hours, frequencies and destination choices. Route 540 currently runs more frequently (every 20 min) but its unique catchment declined when Coolaroo station opened in 2010.  

Potential solution: Merge 540 into extended 531 to form a 7 day local style Broadmeadows - Coburg route operating every 30 min (at least on weekdays) using resources from the duplicative Route 538 which would be retired. If possible boost Route 532's interpeak frequency to every 20 minutes to provide a train harmonising connector between 3 stations, Dallas and to industrial area jobs.

This network's increased Campbellfield - Broadmeadows travel time is offset by longer hours, 7 day service and a direct link to Coburg. Retirement of 538 is of low consequence given longer hours and more frequent 902 overlap. Each operator in the area could get one of the two remaining routes or implementation could coincide with recontracting. More discussion here. 

Resource implications: Achievable with current bus fleet. A basic version should be possible with current weekly operating hours but an enhanced version with a more frequent weekday interpeak and Sunday 532 service is highly desirable. A very cheap (indeed cost negative) version of this network could be operated if the 531 is made to cross the railway at Gowrie and operated along the Route 527 alignment to Coburg (with the remainder of this route eventually being replaced by the simplified and more frequent 904). This would remove a bus from portions of Sydney Rd but most residents would retain coverage of Route 530 as well as Upfield line trains. 

Package 3: Untangling Route 566 and Epping Plaza extension

Problem: Existing route 566 is indirect with confusing overlap and buses operating both directions from some stops. Northern half is a direct region-significant route yet finishes short of area's biggest destinations including Epping Plaza and Northern Hospital. This leads to weak patronage (see Page 103 of the Northern Region Transport Study). The timetable also runs to an irregular ~24 minute frequency that is unharmonised with trains. 

Solution: Split into two routes at Greensborough, with northern portion operating as Route 565 and with the southern section remaining as Route 566. The most basic simplification would do just that with no other route or timetable changes. 

However option for further gains exist if the northern portion operates to Epping Plaza instead of Lalor to better reflect the route's regional reach. The western part of Childs Rd could have coverage retained by rerouting the 556 which would also set the groundwork for its future northern extension via existing Route 356. 

Resource implications: Should be achievable with current bus fleet at existing frequencies. Boosting the 565 northern half to every 20 minutes is highly desirable given cross-regional nature of route and destinations served (which are stronger than the parallel 570 which is already every 20 min). This would require additional service hours, possibly obtainable through timetable or network changes on low patronage routes in the Eltham/Diamond Creek area.   

Summary

All three steps serve high needs / high patronage potential areas including Broadmeadows, Craigieburn, Epping and Thomastown. They would also improve access to major shopping, health, employment and educational precincts. At the same time the proposals are fairly cautious, retaining all existing coverage and involving few if any stop closures. 

Most of the routes involved have not had significant network and in some cases timetable reform for decades. And progress on them would enable the minister and government to demonstrate that bus reform is not dead, despite budget parsimony.  

They could also be the capability-building entrée the department needs before it starts on the big network-shaping reforms like bolder (but still incredibly cheap) initiatives the north needs like SRL North SmartBus / 901 & 902 swap, the Coburg - Heidelberg Murray Rd 904 Megabus and 'missing link' Chandler Hwy and Burke Rd connections joining the north with the east.   

Index to all Useful Network items