Two years ago today Victoria's Bus Plan was launched.
It promised a fresh start for Melbourne's closest public transport to most homes and jobs. This was sorely needed since buses were in a stupor with little happening.
Background
The last serious investment in bus services was about 15 years ago under the Bracks-Brumby government. Key Meeting Our Transport Challenges achievements included 7 day service on many (but not all) local bus routes and new SmartBus routes in the middle (mostly eastern) suburbs including three orbitals. There were also local bus network reviews but implementation was limited. You can read what MOTC achieved in its first 2.5 years here (spoiler: it was a lot).
The 2010 Coalition government did some very good bus network reform and simplified the organisational structure with PTV. However they tipped in little new money. Their biggest mistake was signing the cut-price metropolitan bus franchise that inflicted the maintenance-skimping Transdev Melbourne on a third of the network.
Labor returned in 2014 but, as far as public transport was concerned, in a different guise as an infrastructure-only government. Once their 2014 promises were honoured, there was little new money for buses and even less network reform than under the Liberals. Also the prevailing economic conditions including low interest rates made it easier to borrow billions for ambitious mega-projects than find a few million recurring for services, especially buses.
Melbourne's grown by over a million people since the last SmartBus route was added. And as the minister stated at last week's PAEC estimates hearing, there still remained bus routes with timetables that did not reflect travel needs since Sunday trading started in the 1990s. Hence buses have became less relevant with each passing year with popular routes (like Route 800 between Dandenong and Chadstone) remaining with timetables stuck in time.
Infrequent (yet busy) cross-suburban buses have made getting around harder than it should be during Melbourne's numerous long-term rail shutdowns while authoritative voices including people from Infrastructure Victoria have called out Melbourne's sparse Sunday service.
Has the government responded? Only rarely, resulting in service per capita slipping further behind.
It promised a fresh start for Melbourne's closest public transport to most homes and jobs. This was sorely needed since buses were in a stupor with little happening.
Background
The last serious investment in bus services was about 15 years ago under the Bracks-Brumby government. Key Meeting Our Transport Challenges achievements included 7 day service on many (but not all) local bus routes and new SmartBus routes in the middle (mostly eastern) suburbs including three orbitals. There were also local bus network reviews but implementation was limited. You can read what MOTC achieved in its first 2.5 years here (spoiler: it was a lot).
The 2010 Coalition government did some very good bus network reform and simplified the organisational structure with PTV. However they tipped in little new money. Their biggest mistake was signing the cut-price metropolitan bus franchise that inflicted the maintenance-skimping Transdev Melbourne on a third of the network.
Labor returned in 2014 but, as far as public transport was concerned, in a different guise as an infrastructure-only government. Once their 2014 promises were honoured, there was little new money for buses and even less network reform than under the Liberals. Also the prevailing economic conditions including low interest rates made it easier to borrow billions for ambitious mega-projects than find a few million recurring for services, especially buses.
Melbourne's grown by over a million people since the last SmartBus route was added. And as the minister stated at last week's PAEC estimates hearing, there still remained bus routes with timetables that did not reflect travel needs since Sunday trading started in the 1990s. Hence buses have became less relevant with each passing year with popular routes (like Route 800 between Dandenong and Chadstone) remaining with timetables stuck in time.
Infrequent (yet busy) cross-suburban buses have made getting around harder than it should be during Melbourne's numerous long-term rail shutdowns while authoritative voices including people from Infrastructure Victoria have called out Melbourne's sparse Sunday service.
Has the government responded? Only rarely, resulting in service per capita slipping further behind.
Victoria's Bus Plan and the start it got
2021's Victoria's Bus Plan promised to break the inertia. It diagnosed issues with the existing network well. Key objectives included a simpler network, cleaner zero-emissions buses, improved bus performance, better customer experiences, governance improvements and overall improved value for money. Of these the first, including 7 day service, decent operating hours and reasonable frequencies, is by far the most important when it comes to delivering a useful bus network. If you don't have those then nothing else really matters.
A simplified Night Network, which upgraded some regular bus routes to run 24 hours on weekends, commenced in August 2021. That was followed, less than a month later, with other low cost timetable upgrades on the Transdev/Kinetic network. These involved minimal extra funding but had an overall good in transferring resources from quiet to busy routes.
These weren't earth-shattering but it was a fair start. My end of year summary said that 2021 was better than expected for public transport services, with bus changes making a fair contribution to this. Compared to the 2020 budget the state budget in 2021 put more money into improved bus services. 2022's budget was a further improvement, though measures were still modest relative to the large backlog of network reform and service upgrades.
Progress to 2023
In March 2023 I checked up on the bus plan's progress, listing these and other achievements. Since then there has been further announcements on the transition to zero emissions vehicles and bus re-contracting. Network reviews for Melbourne north, Melbourne north-east and Mildura were announced with an initial survey in September/October 2022. Results of that came out 10 months later, in May 2023.
The 2023 state budget offered little for new bus services. It ended the upward trajectory we saw in the 2021 and especially 2022 budgets. Emphasis instead went to honouring election commitments (including the $9.20 regional fare cap), increased interest payments on borrowings and continuing the construction agenda that had been electorally successful for Labor in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Without budget funding, the most important (ie service) aspects of the Bus Plan are clinically dead. That is unless DTP can internally fund small timetable reforms similar to those of 2021 (but spread across more operators) or like super cheap boosts discussed here, The government may also be pinning its hope on savings arising from bus recontracting. Though with the new contracts to start in 2025 there won't be anything coming from that soon, even if they are successful in reducing costs (which isn't a certainty).
How is Victoria's Bus Plan going on its deliverables? I've already mentioned the 10 month lag in the results of surveys. These basically give legitimacy to the Bus Plan's favoured approach of simplifying routes to be more direct, more frequent but more widely spaced with more reliance on connections for some trips.
2021 - 23 was going to be the period of some small network changes to Mornington Peninsula, Fishermens Bend and Yarra Valley. The first two introduced some welcome changes but were nothing to write home about, especially with regards to operating hours and weekend services. Yarra Valley, meanwhile, should happen later this year.
We don't yet know anything about "The route changes as part of the Doncaster Busway are planned to become the first large-scale network reform", though some very small changes commenced when Bulleen Park & Ride opened.
How have they gone with delivering more attractive networks in high needs areas (another priority)? The Craigieburn, Endeavour Hills and Keysborough upgrades fit into this category. As do the Hampton Park changes starting later this month. However possibly the highest need area are parts of Greater Dandenong without 7 day service (including Princes Hwy and the 800 bus). That got nothing. Indeed the state budget funded more in removing vehicle registration for apprentices and tradies than it did on the Bus Plan in 2023-24.
The last two years were to have seen the development of the Bus Reform Implementation Plans BRIPS). We are approaching the last half of 2023 and we aren't sure of the form these will take.
Finally the bigger network reforms were to take place from 2023. This is now optimistic for several reasons. These include a. the BRIPs not being completed, b. substantial reform often requires larger planning and public engagement, c. there being no substantial funding in the 2023 budget and d. long lead times (eg 2 years or more) from budget funding to implementation, as illustrated here.
Even if the 2024 budget funds what 2023's missed, substantial bus network reform seems unlikely much before 2026. This means that hopes of tying significant bus network reform with major infrastructure (eg the Metro Tunnel due to open in 2025) are fast fading. Even 2026, with the Commonwealth Games and the State election (where they might want to avoid controversial stuff), looks a stretch.
Conclusion
Parts of Victoria's Bus Plan less consequential for passengers, notably bus electrification, remain alive and in progress. But its key element, that to do with service, is sickly due to a loss of budgetary commitment from government.
The risk of it being (yet another) unrealised transport plan is thus high with the Department of Transport and Planning protected from accountability only by the masterful vagueness of its proposals. I'd describe its condition as that of a comatose toddler with an uncertain future.
To stop the Bus Plan dying life support is essential. This requires that DTP to internally fund small timetable and route reforms to tide the plan over a difficult time where neither the premier nor transport's senior minister apparently considers bus (or for that matter train) service a priority.
WA's McGowan government had a similar political mix of generously funding infrastructure but (mostly) doing less about service. However Perth has been able to keep network and timetable reform going through the approaches described here.
We could do worse than copy them to keep bus service reform alive in the hope that it's still there for a reinvigorated and more pro-service state government.
A simplified Night Network, which upgraded some regular bus routes to run 24 hours on weekends, commenced in August 2021. That was followed, less than a month later, with other low cost timetable upgrades on the Transdev/Kinetic network. These involved minimal extra funding but had an overall good in transferring resources from quiet to busy routes.
These weren't earth-shattering but it was a fair start. My end of year summary said that 2021 was better than expected for public transport services, with bus changes making a fair contribution to this. Compared to the 2020 budget the state budget in 2021 put more money into improved bus services. 2022's budget was a further improvement, though measures were still modest relative to the large backlog of network reform and service upgrades.
Progress to 2023
In March 2023 I checked up on the bus plan's progress, listing these and other achievements. Since then there has been further announcements on the transition to zero emissions vehicles and bus re-contracting. Network reviews for Melbourne north, Melbourne north-east and Mildura were announced with an initial survey in September/October 2022. Results of that came out 10 months later, in May 2023.
The 2023 state budget offered little for new bus services. It ended the upward trajectory we saw in the 2021 and especially 2022 budgets. Emphasis instead went to honouring election commitments (including the $9.20 regional fare cap), increased interest payments on borrowings and continuing the construction agenda that had been electorally successful for Labor in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Without budget funding, the most important (ie service) aspects of the Bus Plan are clinically dead. That is unless DTP can internally fund small timetable reforms similar to those of 2021 (but spread across more operators) or like super cheap boosts discussed here, The government may also be pinning its hope on savings arising from bus recontracting. Though with the new contracts to start in 2025 there won't be anything coming from that soon, even if they are successful in reducing costs (which isn't a certainty).
How is Victoria's Bus Plan going on its deliverables? I've already mentioned the 10 month lag in the results of surveys. These basically give legitimacy to the Bus Plan's favoured approach of simplifying routes to be more direct, more frequent but more widely spaced with more reliance on connections for some trips.
2021 - 23 was going to be the period of some small network changes to Mornington Peninsula, Fishermens Bend and Yarra Valley. The first two introduced some welcome changes but were nothing to write home about, especially with regards to operating hours and weekend services. Yarra Valley, meanwhile, should happen later this year.
We don't yet know anything about "The route changes as part of the Doncaster Busway are planned to become the first large-scale network reform", though some very small changes commenced when Bulleen Park & Ride opened.
How have they gone with delivering more attractive networks in high needs areas (another priority)? The Craigieburn, Endeavour Hills and Keysborough upgrades fit into this category. As do the Hampton Park changes starting later this month. However possibly the highest need area are parts of Greater Dandenong without 7 day service (including Princes Hwy and the 800 bus). That got nothing. Indeed the state budget funded more in removing vehicle registration for apprentices and tradies than it did on the Bus Plan in 2023-24.
The last two years were to have seen the development of the Bus Reform Implementation Plans BRIPS). We are approaching the last half of 2023 and we aren't sure of the form these will take.
Finally the bigger network reforms were to take place from 2023. This is now optimistic for several reasons. These include a. the BRIPs not being completed, b. substantial reform often requires larger planning and public engagement, c. there being no substantial funding in the 2023 budget and d. long lead times (eg 2 years or more) from budget funding to implementation, as illustrated here.
Even if the 2024 budget funds what 2023's missed, substantial bus network reform seems unlikely much before 2026. This means that hopes of tying significant bus network reform with major infrastructure (eg the Metro Tunnel due to open in 2025) are fast fading. Even 2026, with the Commonwealth Games and the State election (where they might want to avoid controversial stuff), looks a stretch.
Conclusion
Parts of Victoria's Bus Plan less consequential for passengers, notably bus electrification, remain alive and in progress. But its key element, that to do with service, is sickly due to a loss of budgetary commitment from government.
The risk of it being (yet another) unrealised transport plan is thus high with the Department of Transport and Planning protected from accountability only by the masterful vagueness of its proposals. I'd describe its condition as that of a comatose toddler with an uncertain future.
To stop the Bus Plan dying life support is essential. This requires that DTP to internally fund small timetable and route reforms to tide the plan over a difficult time where neither the premier nor transport's senior minister apparently considers bus (or for that matter train) service a priority.
WA's McGowan government had a similar political mix of generously funding infrastructure but (mostly) doing less about service. However Perth has been able to keep network and timetable reform going through the approaches described here.
We could do worse than copy them to keep bus service reform alive in the hope that it's still there for a reinvigorated and more pro-service state government.
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