Big builds win again in bus-starving budget
Summary
Faced with the rising costs of servicing borrowings arising from the COVID response and its ambitious major transport project program, the state government has made some tough revenue and spending decisions in this year's budget. These include tax hikes for employers, land owners and private schools. Spending has also been reduced or deferred including public sector job cuts and some major projects being put on ice.
The 2023-24 Victorian State Budget contains mixed fortunes for public transport.
Metropolitan trains received funding associated with Metro Tunnel network integration and expanded Kananook stabling for the Frankston line. Election promises to cut regional fares and (later) add regional trains on weekends are honoured. Maintenance investment should allow V/Line to become more resilient and Tarneit will gain a second station.
But as publicised previously, Geelong fast rail and airport rail be subject to Commonwealth review. If the feds pull out then that gives the state licence to also hold back, with any savings handy for budget repair and other priorities. In this budget these include investments in suburban regional rail, especially in growth areas like Melton and Tarneit. There's no denying this is much needed. If it's not Metro electrification it needs to be at least an improved V/Line service to support new suburban stations and add capacity while (hopefully) retaining travel speeds to regional centres. This seems to be the option they've picked.
Favouring Melton over Melbourne Airport is the sort of switch a traditional Labor government might warm to, especially a long-term one worried about its falling primary vote in traditionally safe heartland seats. One could argue that this is better policy anyway; improvements on a line like Melton would benefit a growing cohort of daily commuters with few local jobs and limited other transport options.
Whereas many airport line users would use it much less frequently, already have an acceptable Skybus alternative and may not even be Victorian voters. And airport workers, if the government really wanted to service them, would gain most from revamped buses to surrounding suburbs charging regular fares (a cost-effective initiative that should have been done yesterday).
Those around Keilor East would be most concerned by the new uncertainty over airport rail. This is especially since their hopes were raised a few short months previously that it would include a local station following vigorous advocacy from council, community, federal MP Bill Shorten and state MP Ben Carroll. A Keilor East would have improved local connectivity and increased the railway's usefulness for day to day travel. It would also bring wider network benefits for bus connectivity (as dead-end routes would likely serve the new station) and improve train passenger load distribution between the busy Sunbury line and the likely quieter Airport line.
Do these considerations outweigh Melton's claims if one had to choose? Probably not, though Keilor East should get bus upgrades in the interim.
The Andrews government has never really taken buses seriously beyond the piecemeal promises made (and mostly honoured) back in 2014. We saw some welcome increased interest in the 2021 and 2022 budgets but it was not to continue.
About the best that can be said is that frontline public transport services don't cop cuts. While not a high bar, this could still be seen as a win compared to parts of the UK, USA (and the ACT) which have seen significant bus service reductions in the last few years.
The budget documents: Where everything is
See budget.vic.gov.au or straight to the papers here
The budget papers most important for public transport are:
* Paper 2 (Strategy and Outlook)
* Paper 3 (Service Delivery)
* Paper 4 (State Capital Program)
* Paper 5 (Statement of Finances)
* Budget Overview (a simpler look at items funded)
Salient points from Paper 2 (Strategy and Outlook)
Contains the wider budgetary context including global outlook and debt forecasts. Also includes a summary of initiatives, for instance on public transport:
The Government is also investing more in public transport across Victoria to improve reliability, performance and accessibility. This includes $650 million to upgrade the Melton line and $339 million to prepare the Metro Tunnel for opening, $60 million to enable the deployment of Next Generation Trams on routes 57, 59 and 82 by 2025, and a $36 million investment to deliver Victoria’s Bus Plan – including the commencement of the transition to zero-emissions buses in new Metropolitan Bus Service Contracts from 2025.
Page 16 also mentions the $190m cost of the (now-implemented) election promise to cap statewide public transport fares to the metropolitan level. Claimed benefits of this (p47) include:
..help tackle congestion on roads and further support emissions reduction by encouraging public transport use. The initiative will also promote economic opportunity by reducing the costs for Victorians taking regional public transport to go to work, connecting with family and friends, or accessing vital healthcare.
Salient points from Paper 3 (Service Delivery)
(see p96ff, p307ff & 396)
Output initiatives
Output initiatives are probably of most interest.
Victoria's Bus Plan gets a very small but rising amount, starting at $2.2m in 2023-24 and levelling off at nearly $13m from 2025-26. Buses are so insignificant in this coming year that they get less extra than the "Free registration for our hard-working apprentices and tradies" initiative ($3m).
This budget funds the following for buses:
* A new Eynesbury - Melton station bus route (Eynesbury problem explained here)
* A minor extension of Route 433 to Stone Hill Estate (Maddingley)
* Continuation of four already-started growth-area bus routes (152, 182, 888, 889)
* Planning for a cross Mornington Peninsula bus
* Continuation of the West Gate Punt
* A minor community transport grant
I've discussed transport to new estates like Mt Atkinson, Mambourin and Thornhill Park. Their residents will need to wait longer as the government falls further behind in the provision of growth area bus services.
In contrast this was a good budget for regional rail. The already implemented cheaper regional fares (an election promise) costs $41 to $48m per year. 'More trains more often' upgrades seriously kick in from 2024-25, reaching around $90m per year. This funding delivers Labor's promises made for more frequent V/Line train services on weekends. This initiative is much needed and should make travel across the state easier for many passengers. It's still underbaked for Melton, with the improvement from every 60 to every 40 min on weekends short of the 20 minute frequency needed (and which Tarneit will get). The package also includes the Mernda and Hurstbridge upgrades discussed here. These make minor improvements but barely affect the basic service offer.
V/Line should gain from 'Regional Rail Sustainability' which funds 24 hour heavy maintenance at Bendigo workshops and extra drivers to support maintenance activities. Hopefully this will improve reliability and fleet availability which is much lower for V/Line than Metro.
Asset initiatives
Asset initiatives feature the stuff needed for things to happen. One of the largest in this budget is $600m for 23 V/Locity trains. These will boost capacity to Melton, facilitating the running of 9 car trains and allow older trains to be retired on the Melton and Geelong lines.
Complementing these train acquisitions is $641m for a Melton line upgrade, $287m for Dynon stabling and $28m for maintenance capacity. Melton's upgrade will include a rebuilt station and four level crossing removals in the area.
Metro upgrades include $238m associated with preparation for and operation of the Metro Tunnel and $353m for expanded Kananook stabling. Presumably this will allow the Frankston line to operate independently after the Metro Tunnel opens (when its services return to the City Loop).
Trams in Melbourne's north-west get $59m. This is to support stabling and operation of next generation trams on routes 57, 59 and 82 (which have traditionally had some of the smallest, oldest trams).
Statistics
The budget documents also contain some service delivery statistics. Here's a few.
* Operating costs p310: These are typically higher than budgeted, especially for tram.
* Metropolitan bus services outputs p313: Patronage is recovering post-pandemic, with 2022-23's figure being about 83% of pre-pandemic levels. It's common for people to assert that 'bus users rarely touch on'. The state government disagrees, claiming a 92% compliance.
* Metropolitan train services outputs p320: 2022-23 patronage is about 64% of pre-pandemic levels. Fare compliance is higher than bus being at around 97%. Availability of rolling stock has fallen from 95 to 94%.
* Regional train services outputs p321: Scheduled services delivered are well below target. V/Line has a major problem with rolling stock availability being in the 86 - 88% range. This can result in cancellations or short trains (which can get crowded). This is attributed to "maintenance capacity constraints and increased animal strikes requiring repair and biowash facilities."
* Tram service outputs p323: Usage continues to rise towards pre-pandemic levels with it around 74% of target (which appears to be an achieved pre-pandemic patronage figure). The 96% fare compliance rate is higher than for buses which is a turn-around from many years ago when compliance was lower on trams.
Salient points from Paper 4 (State Capital Program)
(see p83ff and 182ff)
You'll probably be most interested in the page of new projects (p83) for transport. These amount to a shade over $9 billion.
There's only a few items with two-thirds the funding being $6.5 billion for 25 level crossing removals. That makes their cost roughly $260m a pop. Completion of this program will see the Lilydale, Sunbury, Cranbourne, Pakenham, Frankston and Werribee lines level crossing free (for cars - though there will still be some foot crossings). This program also includes 40 new and upgraded stations and 50km of walking and cycling paths.
The capital component of Victoria's bus plan is a mere minnow in comparison, amounting to under $2 million. Even new fishing piers got $40 million (possibly for political reasons I discussed here).
Most of the remainder (about $2b) was road improvements and maintenance.
Existing projects start on p85. This is much longer. Again the level crossing removals take a hugely dominant position (billions) with active transport, bus and tram projects in the millions. I discussed items from past budgets here.
Completed projects are in Page 90.
A number of rail projects are reported under Victrack. These are on page 182. These include upgraded and new stations. Upgrades include stations at Albion, Ballarat and Boronia. There will also be a second station in Tarneit West. This will bring trains nearer to more growth area homes and take some pressure off the existing busy station at Tarneit (the busiest on the V/Line network outside Southern Cross).
The Suburban Rail Loop gets its own page (p17). The budget reports that planning, development and early works are progressing on it. SRL East cost is estimated between $30 and 34.5b. Of this only $11.8b has been announced by the state government with $2.2b announced as an 'initial investment' (ie they're hoping for more) from the Commonwealth. The project is described as being 'well on its way' with the first trains running by 2035.
Page 183 lists existing projects. Page 187 has completed projects. These are long lists so I won't go through each item here. Of note is that 'Geelong Fast Rail' is effectively deferred with 'tbc' (to be confirmed) and a note saying the project is subject to commonwealth review (explained more on page 3). Ticketing renewal will cost $543m with $183m of that in 2023-24. The contract for this was recently awarded to American firm Conduent.
You'll all be interested in airport rail (which the government branded 'Suburban Rail Loop - Airport'). About 630-odd million has been spent already with a similar amount tipped for 2023-24 (for early works). However it's 'tbc' after that with a note about the Commonwealth Infrastructure Review. Roughly similar figures apply for the Suburban Rail Loop East though this also has over $1.1b earmarked for beyond 2024.
Conclusion
The 2023-24 Victorian state budget perpetuates the government's current policy setting of feeding infrastructure and (V/Line excepted) starving service.
Its program of infrastructure upgrades, including new stations, increased capacity and network resilience for regional and outer suburban rail will be warmly welcomed in places like Melton and Tarneit. Other points in favour include preparing for the transformative impact of Metro Tunnel services and supporting larger and more accessible trams in Melbourne's inner west and north-west.
The budget's main failing is that it does pretty much nothing to improve bus services, the nearest and often only public transport for the vast majority of Melburnians. The gradual upward trajectory in the number and significance of improved bus services seen in the 2021 and 2022 state budgets has been arrested. And, bus electrification aside, Victoria's Bus Plan is now effectively in tatters.
Areas that most miss out include (i) numerous growth area estates and (ii) established areas (like much of Greater Dandenong) that haven't had bus timetable improvements for decades. Some of these neighbourhoods have voted solidly Labor for decades but have swung so hugely away that results are now often decided on preferences.
Enough time has passed with so little achieved to fairly conclude that the current government has a 'bus problem'. This may stem from (a) the government's most senior ranks underappreciating the extent to which better job-ready bus services can cut living costs and transform lives and (b) certain ministerial portfolio and factional realignments that may have weakened pro-bus voices within this government. It can't be a money problem as buses rank amongst the most cost-effective public transport there is.
Most people care little about the political machinations that may have caused buses to be side-lined in this budget. However buses are part of the local service offering that they expect will be provided and be operated well. If Labor can't run services in the suburbs then the electorate, even in previously considered 'safe' seats, will increasingly opt for candidates and parties who say they can.
Background: Service measures in past recent Victorian state budgets here
1 comment:
I like that there are more trains, however, I'd love to see more money spent on a major upgrade of the bus network. Especially in regional areas like Wodonga. Maybe in the next budget or two, we'll see some major changes.
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