Election 2022 special: Public transport upgrades by seat - Part 3 less marginal but still significant

I explained the political benefits of proposing public transport service improvements on 7 January. Two weeks ago I presented a list of desirable upgrades metropolitan wide (Part 1). These were skewed towards but did not entirely benefit marginal seats. See this first for a Melbourne-wide summary. 

A detailed seat by seat list of upgrades appeared last week for the marginals as Part 2. Today I'll do the same for less marginal (but still potentially changeable) seats. That is seats that need more than 6% to change their member. These include seats that the Coalition must win to form government in November. 

Swings are not necessarily uniform state-wide. Some marginal seats can be retained while less marginal seats can swing more and be lost. Parties may wish to campaign in all seats, regardless of margin, to boost their Legislative Council vote. Also some marginal seat upgrades may also benefit adjoining safer seats so should be promoted in these areas as well. 

Again I'll go through seats in decreasing order of marginality. I will cover what I will call 'near marginal' seats (6-10% margin) and 'not safe' seats (10-15% margin). I use the latter description because some of these seats have been held by the Coalition within the last decade.  

All but one seats described today are Labor held. While there are Coalition held seats with these margins, these are less likely to be pivotal in determining who runs the state. A further large pro-Labor swing would be extraordinary given the size of its win in 2018. However it's not inconceivable given the near-wipe-out the Coalition faced in WA. I'll cover these safer coalition seats (as well as even safer Labor seats) next week.

(notional 6 - 10% margin) 

Monbulk (ALP 8.4%)

Outer eastern seat including suburban areas between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave north to the Dandenong Ranges with rural fringe areas further east (which the redistribution adds). Includes people who like living amongst the trees but within commuting distance of Melbourne as well as older established folk. Held by deputy premier James Merlino, it's the sort of seat that could change hands if there is a significant anti-Labor swing. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits. 

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Bus upgrades in Upper Ferntree Gully area including increased frequency on Route 693 and simplification of local routes such as 694, 695, 695F, 697, 732 and 699. 

* Weekend frequency upgrade for Route 688 through the Dandenongs. 

Cranbourne (ALP 9.0)

A south-eastern fringe growth area with much new housing and young families, many from overseas or first generation Australian. Seat is an almost perfect square centred on Cranbourne. Area gained a revamped bus network in 2016 with subsequent additions in the Clyde area. However there remain many loose ends and a further review is now needed as routes have just been put on top of one another with dead-end termini. Services, roads and infrastructure are a common local topic of discussion. The area will gain from Cranbourne line duplication with the February timetable offering improved peak train frequency. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* The extension of the Cranbourne line to Clyde, promised by the Coalition in 2018, is almost certain to come up in 2022. Since then the area has only grown more. It will need to be advocated by anyone seriously interested in retaining or winning this seat. 

Albert Park (ALP  9.2%)

CBD fringe inner bayside seat that includes not only the affluent suburb that bears its name but areas as far east as Punt Rd, the renter-rich Southbank and the large Fishermans Bend industrial area slated for future redevelopment. Also includes some public housing in South Melbourne and the least accessible part of Docklands along Lorimer St. A new Metro Tunnel station at Anzac will benefit the eastern part of the seat as will associated tram network reform around Park St.  The current member is Labor's Martin Foley who is also health minister. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Frequency upgrades to the 606 bus (potentially in conjunction with 600/922/923 simplification further south). 

* Upgrade to Fishermans Bend buses to serve densifying residential and other land uses in the area. 

* Infrastructure of local interest includes proposals for a tram extension across the Yarra to serve currently poorly serviced parts of Fishermans Bend and provide a connection to Docklands across the Yarra. 

(notional 10 - 15% margin)

Eltham (ALP 10%)

A highly treed north-east Melbourne fringe area seat loved by residents for its 'clean and green' lifestyle within commuting distance of Melbourne via Hurstbridge line trains. Area can be considered to be 'comfortable and relaxed' with a high proportion of older adults in their own detached houses. The largest shopping area and transit hub is at Greensborough, just outside the seat. Eltham has had a significant number of bus upgrades but routes often overlap, do not necessarily connect with trains and may be poorly used. Represented by Labor's Vicki Ward.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

(none for this area)

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade evening and Sunday morning train services from every 30-40 to every 20 minutes to as far as Eltham. 

* Local bus review involving simplifying routes such as 343, 513, 517, 518, 580 and 582 with improved connectivity to surrounding centres including Greensborough, Northland and La Trobe University. 

Frankston (ALP 10.2%)

The first of a slew of formerly marginal bayside 'sandbelt' seats that determined election outcomes in years such as 2010 and 2014. A bellwether seat for at least the last several elections. Based on the important suburban centre of Frankston which features low income earners to its north-east balanced by high earners to its south. Frankston is the outermost of the sandbelt seats all of which swung strongly to Labor in 2018. Held by Labor's Paul Edbrooke.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Simplify complex 770 and 771 in Karingal area. Currently buses operate with confusing single direction sections. 

* Upgrade Route 833 to operate every 20 min weekdays and 20-30 min weekends at least between Frankston and Carrum Downs. Remove backtracking via Frankston - Dandenong Rd to simplify route and speed through travel. 

* Review bus netwwork in Frankston South to simplify services. 

Narre Warren North (ALP 10.5%)

Outer suburban seat mostly north of Pakenham railway with housing developed mainly in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. Even though further from Melbourne its average incomes are higher than some areas along the Princes Hwy corridor closer to the CBD. The area's existence demonstrate the attraction of upwardly mobile lower-middle class families to newer/bigger housing and perceived better schools compared to closer in  established areas like Doveton, Noble Park and Springvale. Includes the massive Fountain Gate Shopping Centre and the hub of the City of Casey. Held by long term member Luke Donnellan who will not be recontesting in 2022. This means that both Labor and Coalition candidates will be new faces. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Local bus network review to simplify buses in Narre Warren North, and provide improved connections to Fountain Gate, Dandenong Hospital and Dandenong TAFE by reforming local routes in area (eg 841, 182, 861, 863 etc). 

Narre Warren South (ALP 10.7%)

Wedge-shaped outer south-eastern seat between the Cranbourne and Pakenham railway lines. Similar margin and demographics to abovementioned Narre Warren North. Includes everything from 1970s low to middle income neighbourhoods at Hampton Park, large block acreages on Pound Rd and new estates in the seat's south-east. Grade separation at Hallam Rd and reconstructed station should provide for improved train - bus interchange. Narre Warren South has always been held by the Labor Party since its creation in 2002. Gary Maas MP will be recontesting it for Labor.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Area is overdue for a reappraisal of local bus services. Local network review could simplify complex routes like 894, add connections to Lynbrook Station, reduce inefficient overlaps and better link to jobs at Dandenong South and Fountain Gate.  

Bentleigh (ALP 11.5%)

The most inner, highest-earning and most university educated of the belt of (formerly) marginal Frankston line seats, Bentleigh has gentrified due to its handy location and access to highly rated schools such as McKinnon Secondary. Area has benefited from recent level crossing removals. Its residents include a middle class demographic that (at the state level) has recently felt more comfortable with Labor than an authoritarian-leaning 'law and order' Liberal Party. Incumbent MP Nick Staikos will be the Labor candidate. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Local bus network review to simplify bus routes in Bentleigh East and provide improved access to jobs in Moorabbin light industrial area. 

 

Carrum (ALP 12%)

Another previously marginal sandbelt seat, Carrum was a seat the Liberals hoped for (and needed to win) in 2018 but instead went the other way, swinging strongly to Labor. The seat streatches from the established (but densifying) coastal strip to touch the new estates of Cranbourne west. Key neighbourhoods include the big boat-owning Liberal-voting Patterson Lakes and the larger working-to-middle-class Carrum Downs further inland (which also hosts a significant light industrial area). The area has just seen several level crossings removed and the Mordialloc Freeway completed, making driving easier to jobs at Heatherton, Braeside and Moorabbin. Labor's Sonya Kilkenny will be seeking her third term as the member for Carrum in 2022.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Route 833 to operate every 20 min weekdays and 20-30 min weekends at least between Frankston and Carrum Downs. Remove backtracking via Frankston - Dandenong Rd to simplify route and speed through travel. 

* Swap alignment of bus routes 833 and 857 in Patterson Lakes area to provide both McLeod Rd and Gladesville Bvd with a 7 day bus service. Currently alignment has no 7 day service on Gladesville Bvd and an indirect alignment for 857. Reform, which could be done in conjunction with a minor rerouting of 780, also better suits the movement of Carrum Station to the south. 

* Reroute 778 to commence at Seaford (not Kananook) and continue to at least Carrum Downs Shopping Centre (and preferably on to Cranbourne) with increased frequency and 7 day service to provide a better east-west train feeder route in area. 

* Improved frequency and 7 day service on Route 857. 

Ivanhoe (ALP 12.4%)

Middle suburban northern Melbourne seat centred on Heidelberg and Hurstbridge railway line. Incomes (and propensity to vote Liberal) rise from north-west (Heidelberg West) to south-east (Eaglemont) by the Yarra. Has several hospitals and well regarded private schools. Leafy with most homes as separate houses. Has a history of being a marginal seat but generally only won by the Liberals in their landslide wins. Parts of seat (notably the south-west) abut the inner north in which Greens do well.  Area has benefited from Hurstbridge line upgrade. Local member is Anthony Carbines who advocated for improved Hurstbridge line evening train reliability and frequency in 2016. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade evening and Sunday morning train frequency from every 30 - 40 min to every 20 min at least to Eltham.  

* Major bus upgrades including extending Route 903 SmartBus to LaTrobe University from Heidelberg and a premium service 'Megabus' every 10 minutes between Heidelberg and Coburg via Northland. 

Point Cook (ALP 12.4%)

A middle to outer western suburban seat. Main areas include 1970s-80s lower to middle class Altona Meadows and 1990s-2000s middle class Point Cook. The latter has more a white collar workforce profile more like an eastern suburbs seat. IWith  no post-secondary education and almost no internal jobs apart from retail and some self-employed, Point Cook (the suburb) saw large commuter flows traversing its few road connections to the outside world pre-COVID. The area gained from the new Williams Landing station and a revamped bus network in 2013. Some incremental bus upgrades have happened since. Point Cook is a new seat, replacing parts of the abolished Altona (along with Williamstown). The latter have been reliable for the Labor party though the middle class profile of Point Cook might give the Liberals a chance, especially if they select a candidate that appeals to the area's multicultural population. Labor's Jill Hennessy, who currently represents Altona, will be retiring, meaning that Labor will need to select a new candidate. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Route 411 to SmartBus for entire route between Footscray, Altona North, Altona Meadows and Laverton. Done in conjunction with reform to Route 903 and 412 in Sunshine / Altona area. 

* Add a new bus route in the Point Cook area between Laverton Station, Sneydes Rd, Hoppers Crossing and Werribee Plaza (or Werribee CBD). 

* Improved bicycle connectivity and storage near Williams Landing Station. 

Niddrie (ALP 12.5%)

North-west middle suburban seat held by transport minister Ben Carroll since 2012. A mix of pre and postwar suburbs where trams meet freewayed autopia, often with poor outcomes for walkability. Has many private schools with a wide catchment. Includes a higher than average proportion of children in Catholic schools and residents born in Italy. Niddrie has  reliably voted Labor for decades and is too far from the CBD for The Greens to pose any electoral threat.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Routes 407 and 468 to operate 7 days. 

* Simplify buses by splitting Route 469 at Airport West Shoppingtown (and renumbering one half 466).  

* Airport line station at Keilor East. This would provide rapid transit to a large catchment without it and diversify airport line patronage. Further details in a feasability study commissioned by Moonee Valley Council and in my blog post here. 

Prahran (ALP 12.8% but Greens held)

Inner suburban bayside seat known for its night life. Well connected with trams in all directions. Currently held by Greens transport spokesperson Sam Hibbins who has overseen a shift in his party's transport advocacy emphasis from public transport to electric car driving. Prahran's redistribution has greatly strengthened Labor's prospects. Containing a mixed population of 'old money' retirees, professionals, gays, rich trendies, Jews and public housing tenants this diverse seat is one where Liberal, Labor and the Greens have taken seriously. Hibbins will have a difficult time holding this seat, though he has an advantage of the higher profile that being an incumbent MP confers. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 2: Sandringham line more trains more often / halved maximum waits.

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgraded frequency and operating hours for Route 606 (potentially in conjunction with 600/922/923 simplification in St Kilda/Brighton area).

* Upgrade for 78 tram (subject of local campaign by Sam Hibbins MP)

Mordialloc (ALP 13.4%)

A Frankston line sandbelt swing seat geographically and socio-economically between Bentleigh and Carrum. Includes high income earners along the bay (especially further north) and an older pensioner population in villa units around Chelsea. There is more new housing and greater cultural diversity in the east around Keysborough. Level crossing removals were a topical issue a few years ago in Melbourne's south-east with opposition to 'Sky Rail' being built on the Dandenong and later Frankston lines. Mordialloc MP Tim Richardson strongly backed trench rather than elevated rail with it being considered a threat to his seat and potentially even Labor's hold on government in 2018. As it turned out other issues dominated that campaign and Labor was returned with an increased majority including large swings to it in sandbelt seats. Trench rail ultimately got built at Edithvale, Chelsea and Bonbeach, as opposed to elevated rail at Carrum. Apart from opposition at Parkdale (where level crossing removals are planned), sentiment opposing Sky Rail has lessened with the Carrum example being considered a success with great bay views from the station and train. Mordialloc has also seen the construction of three new stations (at Edithvale, Chelsea and Bonbeach) and the opening of the Mordialloc Freeway linking the area to jobs at Braeside and Moorabbin. Tim Richardson MP is recontesting the seat for Labor. Liberal Party member and Kingston Council candidate Jane Agirtan has been highly active on social media and it would not be surprising if she is angling for preselection. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade bus route 705 and reroute to operate to Monash University Clayton to provide faster connection to Monash University Clayton from Mordialloc. 

* Reform or extend bus routes to provide a  direct connection to Dandenong South jobs from the Keysborough area. 

* Improve weekend service on Routes 811/812 to operate better than hourly along Lower Dandenong Rd. 

Werribee (ALP 13.6%)

An outer western multicultural low to middle income growth area seat held by State Treasurer Tim Pallas. Considered a safe Labor seat but, unlike in the south-east, Labor did poorly on primary vote in this area in 2018. This is because, like Melton, local representation was found wanting due to controversies and backdowns over matters like youth dentention centres, toxic waste dumps and local services. Also, like Melton, strong local independent candidates were able to tap sentiment of those displeased with Labor but uninspired by Liberal candidates. Nevertheless, with its core homeowner base in the established east ageing and shrinking, the Liberal Party will likely target outer suburban seats like Werribee in 2022 with leader Matthew Guy paying a visit earlier this month. Whichever candidate they choose will need to relate well with settlers from the Indian subcontinent, who have massively changed the seat's demographics in the last 20 years. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Extended growth area coverage including a route to Mambourin as new housing gets built.  

Sunbury (ALP 14.6%)

A white Anglo type seat with an older population skew, Sunbury has historically seen slower population growth than more diverse northern and western growth areas such as Tarneit, Melton and Craigieburn. These characteristics make it more like an outer eastern suburban seat, though with less tree cover. Sunbury, like Melton was nominated as a satellite city in the 1970s. It only recently got rail electrification (albeit at half frequency), something that Melton is still waiting for. Its relationship with electrification was ambiguous as some locals preferred their less frequent but more comfortable V/Line trains that, until the minister changed the rules, they could no longer use. The intense debate before that change raised identity issues Sunbury has, ie whether it is a proudly separate country town (that gave birth to The Ashes) or really part of metropolitan Melbourne on which it is dependent for many of its peoples jobs. A similar debate led to an unsuccessful push for Sunbury to secede from the City of Hume with its own council. Represented by Labor's Josh Bull.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

none included 

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Train frequency upgrades including service boosted from every 30-40 to every 20 minutes at night and on Sunday mornings.  

* 7 day buses with improved coverage at Diggers Rest. 

Conclusion

While less marginal than the seats last week, seats like these are still key to 2022's result. Their voters occupy the middle ground that Australian compulsory preferential voting system rewards. Thus a good result in these seats is important for whichever party or coalition forms government.  

Have you read all items in this series? You will need to for today's item to make sense. If not see them here: 

How to win votes with public transport in 2022

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 1 Metropolitan overview

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 3 less marginal seats (this one)

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 4 safer seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 5 The safest seats 

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrade by seat - Part 6 Summary

NOTE: This item may be updated nearer the 2022 state election if interesting facts about seats and candidates come to hand. 

TT #150: Last bus 2:55pm! Revised Rosebud buses & Cranbourne trains start next month.

Some new timetables came out last Friday. These are for a boosted Cranbourne train timetable and a revised bus network for the Mornington Peninsula. Overall it's an advance. But there are some things we'd like to see more of. Here's a closer look. 

Cranbourne and Pakenham trains 

Single line track sections can be a barrier to running regular, frequent and reliable train services. It's great that these are gradually being removed. None more so than the Dandenong - Cranbourne section which would have risked the reliability of Metro Tunnel and (later) airport services if it had not been duplicated. 

The completion of this work has led to a new timetable starting February 13. This mainly benefits stations between Dandenong and Cranbourne though there are also gains for stations between Westall and Pakenham as well. Also Malvern, which will see more trains stopping. The latter though is at the cost of trip speed for V/Line's Gippsland trains whose timetables are made a minute longer. PTV's item on this is here.

Marketing talked about '10 minute trains to Cranbourne'. This is a welcome acknowledgement that frequency is important and is worth selling. Too rare when much local transport discourse and funding is about infrastructure and not service. 

Let's look at the claims in more detail. First of all the frequency improvements are during the peaks.  Cranbourne's basic frequency remains at 20 min off-peak and 30 minutes on weekend evenings. 

I counted the number of trains leaving Cranbourne between 6am to 9am on weekdays. It rises from 13 to 16. OK, this is two trains short of a 10 minute average (18 trains in 3 hours) but you could argue that peak demand is nearer to ocurring in a 2 hour period in the morning and not 3 hours. 

What about the 'peak of peak' and how consistent is the service? It's particularly telling that the premier's release talks about an average 10 minute frequency. The actual timetable is very lumpy with shorter and longer gaps, including during the 'peak of the peak'. As an example there is a 15 minute gap between 7:23 and 7:38 am at Cranbourne.

While an improvement, this is no 'throw away the timetable' reform. Regardless of average frequency  this timetable does not deliver a true turn-up-and-go 10 minute peak service for Cranbourne. The latter needs to be based on maximum waits rather than average frequencies. It is hoped that a future rescheduling will smooth these peak timetable irregularities and address other needs such as 20 minute maximum waits all week including evenings and Sunday mornings (like the Frankston line has).

What should however improve is reliability. Stations on single track sections are prone to having their trains delayed or terminated early. For instance trains scheduled to go to Cranbourne might finish at Dandenong, requiring passengers to alight and catch the next through train. Duplication should lessen these occurrences and pave the way for the locally hoped for extension to Clyde.   

Interestingly there has been no mention of bus recoordinations at Cranbourne which could have been desirable to get the most from the new timetable. 

Rosebud bus revamp 

We got the 788 service upgrade late last year. This was welcome. It gave a large area its first 'minimum standards' bus route (previously services ran only every 70 - 80 minutes on weekends). But there's large areas not near the 788 that had only rudimentary and often confusing services (if they had any at all). 

Much of the area is in the politically marginal seat of Nepean (unexpectedly won by Labor's Chris Brayne in 2018). The Mornington Peninsula Shire has been advocating for better buses. More on that here. They can claim significant success in both the abovementioned Route 788 upgrade and the following network reforms starting in under a month. The upgrades were funded in the 2020 state budget. Few details were released then but I thought about some alternative network concepts for the area. 

PTV's website describes the changes in two website news items. The first describes changes to the 781 and 887. The second introduces the new Rosebud FlexiRide with associated changes to the 787 and the deletion of the 886.

Each item is presented as stand-alone with no cross-references or links between them even though they serve similar and overlapping areas. Neither does the item about Rosebud FlexiRide link to the general FlexiRide page (despite it having Rosebud added). A reference from both pages to the recently upgraded 788 would also have been desirable in case people missed it and to mention potential connectivity with the new FlexiRide and revised 787 (the current version of which did have scheduled connectivity with 788 trips).  

PTV's disconnected 'silo-style' presentation format confirms that the Department of Transport lacks internal ability to see and present the network as a whole, to the detriment of explaining and selling reforms to it.  We have also seen similar disconnects in planning, where the DoT specified different public holiday arrangements for Melton's FlexiRide than which apply for regular buses in the area.  

Getting back to the Mornington Peninsula, next month's changes are as follows: 

* Route 781 is extended to Dromana to provide new coverage in Mt Martha (though the current PTV website map shows some long gaps between stops). Frequency remains hourly with service until about 10pm. This is a major improvement as it brings coverage to a notoriously unserved area. Another benefit is improved connectivity at the southern end to remove backtracking for Mt Martha - Rosebud trips.  

* Route 887 rerouted to become the peninsula's promised express bus. It runs from Frankston to Boneo Rd (Rosebud) with expressing between Frankston and Dromana.  service to Boneo Rd. Every 60 minutes weekdays, every 120 minutes weekends. Daytime only service on weekends. 

Provided the bus times suit the 887 shortens travel between Rosebud and Frankston by about 15-20 minutes compared to the 788. As an example, a 10:20am Route 887 trip from Rosebud Plaza gets to Frankston at 11:08am (ie 48 minutes). In contrast the 788 offers departures from Rosebud Plaza at 10:04 and 10:31 am. These arrive at Frankston at 11:09 and 11:39 respectively (ie 65 or 68 minutes). If you get to the Rosebud Plaza stop at 10am you are probably still better off getting the first bus that comes (the 788) despite being slower since it will arrive just 1 minute later than the express 887. This example illustrates the power of frequency and its equal (if not greater) importance as express running in reducing end-to-end travel times. 

It is likely that those in the Rosebud area wishing to go to Frankston will aim to catch the 887 there for its faster run time. For their trip home, assuming the departure time is less fixed, they are more likely to get the first bus out of Frankston. That is unless they arrive at Frankston interchange at about 10 past the hour and there is a 887 a few minutes after the 788 (which there normally is on weekdays). 

* The very complex Route 787 will be shortened and simplified with its eastern portion cut out. The new route will run from Rosebud to Sorrento only. Its timetable will be made more regular with a 60 minute frequency on weekdays, a 120 minute frequency on Saturdays and no Sunday service. Operating hours unfortunately remain disappointing with the last weekday trip leaving Rosebud at 2:55pm (3:52pm Saturdays).

It is as if they're trying to schedule it to use two buses / two drivers on an 8 hour shift (weekdays) and one bus/one driver on Saturday. In combination with the 50 - 55 minute run time this may be operationally efficient but the short span doesn't make the service as useful as it could be. And it marks a return to parsimonious 1990s style planning with no minimum service standards regarding span and frequency.  

* A new Rosebud FlexiRide to replace the indirect eastern part of 787 and all of the short Route 886 to Rosebud TAFE. Coverage in the currently unserved Martha Cove area will also be provided. This is described as a 12 month trial. Unlike the 887 (which had some Saturday trips) the new FlexiRide is weekday only. Thus the revised network cuts Saturday service in some areas. The 3:45pm finish is also a joke (woe betide the passenger who needs to leave Rosebud TAFE after that time). These short operating hours gives Rosebud the least useful FlexiRide out of all so far rolled out (eg Rowville, Lilydale, Melton).   

What's the summary? The Rosebud area was badly short-changed with regards to buses before these changes. It will continue to be short-changed after them, especially with regards to operating hours which are too short even for a lot of daytime trips.

Most areas that get bus network revamps have operating days and hours improved to something closer to 'minimum standards' - that is 7 day service at least hourly until 9pm. Endeavour Hills' new network is a recent (imperfect) example where Sunday service was improved from every 2 hours and operating hours lengthened.

Rosebud has little such luck. Embarrassingly early times for Rosebud's last bus on routes like 787 and the new FlexiRide will remain in force. Instead what spare resources there were went onto the upgraded and rerouted express 887 which offers faster travel but basically no new coverage. An express type bus has merit given the lack of rail and the slow travel speeds on the 788. However 887's still low frequency means that there will be many times when the 788 will remain the faster option. Whether the 887 should have been upgraded while other areas remain starved with short-hours local routes finishing at 3 or 4 pm is a fair question to ask (alternative southern peninsula network that would combine 787/788/887 into two routes (787/788, each hourly) is Option 2 here).    

See https://twitter.com/MelbOnTransit/status/1484346453212688386 for a Twitter thread on the above changes. 

Conclusion

Overall both the Cranbourne train timetable and Rosebud bus network changes are an improvement. 

However both have significant loose ends that need to be addressed in a future timetable revision. 

Cranbourne's looks more like a tweak than a comprehensive timetable overhaul that should be providing something nearer to a consistent 10 minute maximum wait peak frequency (noting that there will be scheduling constraints eg other trains like Gippsland V/Line that need paths). 

The Mornington Peninsula's biggest disappointment is its poor operating hours, particularly on Routes 787 and the Rosebud FlexiRide. Having both finish at 3 or 4pm, regardless of how poor existing services were, is a major let-down that will hobble patronage on otherwise beneficial network upgrades. 7 day service should also be the rule rather than the exception.

It is puzzling why, despite some positive upgrades such as the 781 and 887, the Mornington Peninsula remains with such a parsimonious third-rate service given the relative cheapness of operating span extensions that would work the existing bus fleet harder (and create more driver jobs).   

Index to Timetable Tuesday items here

Election 2022 special: Public transport upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals

Two weeks ago I described the political benefits of public transport service upgrades (call this Part 0). Last week I presented twelve public transport service upgrade packages that were relatively economical, met real needs and would benefit many voters (Part 1). These were mostly skewed towards politically marginal seats - that is those with a margin of 6% of less. 

Today in Part 2 I'll discuss these marginal seats individually, listing each of last week's 12 service upgrade packages that will benefit them. To save repetition I'll just refer to them by number with a link to last week's items so you can read more about them.

I’ll also throw in some more localised upgrades that didn’t make last week’s list. These are considered lower priority but could still address a local issue that could come up in a particularly focused local campaign, especially if the seat is considered politically important. These concentrate on service but  infrastructure such as train and tram extensions get mentioned where featured in previous campaigns or are widely advocated locally.     

This seat by seat information could be useful for a candidate or party who wishes to wage an especially regionally based campaign.  

Labor marginals (less than 6% notional margin) 

Labor currently has 55 seats in the 88 seat Legislative Assembly. This compares to 27 for the Coalition parties. Because of its big 2018 win Labor can lose all its current marginal seats and still retain office.  However the Coalition opposition needs to win all these (and more) to govern. 

In seats like these the opposition may first propose something it thinks is popular. Then, especially if the promise is cheap (like many here!) or its position is weaker than initially thought, the government might match it to neutralise any opposition advantage. 

Even if it expects to be re-elected there is still some benefit for Labor to actively campaign for a strong vote everywhere to maximise its Legislative Council representation with a majority (or at least a workable minority) to pass its bills. This is why parties should not completely dismiss promising transport upgrades in less marginal seats (which I'll discuss next week). 

Anyway, on to the seats. 

Hastings (ALP 0.4% but currently Liberal held)

A mixed peri-urban seat made harder for the Liberals to retain by an unfavourable redistribution. However even a small anti-Labor swing will be enough for them to do so. Area is politically marginal with a mix of Liberal leaning semi-rural small-holding dwellers and retirees plus more Labor leaning lower to middle income earners priced out of areas nearer Melbourne. Train and bus services are typically infrequent and Hastings abuts two other marginal seats, hence the upgrade package mentioned last week. Existing Liberal MP Neil Burgess will retire with Briony Hutton their nominee. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Further local bus reform including a low frequency cross-peninsula bus between Mornington and Hastings (that could mop up coverage gaps). 

* Baxter rail electrification may come up given the Coalition promised it in 2018 and it featured in the 2019 federal election campaign. It may get a run in both federal and state campaigns this year.  

Hawthorn (ALP 0.4%)

A traditionally Liberal seat that was a surprise Labor win in 2018. Generally high incomes but apartment construction is changing demographics towards a younger professional skew as older residents die or sell up to release home equity to live. Often a developer buys the house and builds units or townhouses. The Labor member is John Kennedy who goes everywhere by public transport. He faces a battle with respected former Hawthorn Liberal MP John Pesutto a good chance with just the slightest anti-Labor swing.   

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 10 minute maximum waits. 

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Extension and upgrade to bus 609 to provide a useful Chandler Hwy service.  

Nepean (ALP 0.6%)

Like Hawthorn a traditional Liberal seat that no one expected would fall to Labor in 2018. Unlike Hawthorn Nepean is far outer suburban fringe and peri-urban with most population in a narrow strip along the bay. Peninsula people don't always regard themselves as being in Melbourne, especially when they were subject to the tighter metropolitan COVID restrictions in 2020. Currently held by Chris Brayne, the house's youngest MP. Catchment includes a mixture of suburban type and peri-urban development. Home to mostly white people of a wide range of incomes, ranging from Capel Sound strugglers to Sorrento silvertails, with a high senior percentage. Public transport is rudimentary with little coverage for those away from the long 788 bus (which got an upgrade in late 2021). Nepean's Liberal candidate is not yet known but tennis star Sam Groth has been talked about. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgraded local bus services with longer operating hours and days of operation. Bus upgrades are proposed for February 2022 but operating hours are still not useful on routes with finishes as early as 3 or 4pm on weekdays and only patchy weekend service. In particular longer hours are needed on the 787 and Rosebud FlexiRide and more frequency on the 887 express bus. 

* Baxter rail electrification, while outside the seat, may interest some in Nepean given the distance people are from frequent trains at Frankston and the parking pressures there. 

Ashwood (ALP 2.1% - new seat)

An established inner to middle eastern suburban predominantly middle to upper income catchment. If you own a home here you've got it made. Area has mostly been reliable for the Liberal Party however it swung to Labor in 2018. Undergoing some densification. This is a new seat name due to redistribution in the area. The Liberal Party has put forward Asher Judah but there are some doubts over this preselection at the time of writing. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Box Hill (ALP 2.9%)

Another eastern suburb seat that the Coalition parties have generally called their own. Centred on a major densifying suburban hub with significant health, retail and education services. The centre of Melbourne's Chinese community. Most of the 12 packages featured last week would have some benefits for Box Hill due to its central location on the transport network. Seeking re-election will be Labor's Paul Hamer who is a civil engineer, former transport planner and author of research papers on parking policy. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 10 minute maximum waits. 

* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Simplify bus routes in Blackburn North area with local review as current network is complex and often with low service levels.  

Pakenham (ALP 3.0% - new seat)

An outer growth area that has needed a new seat to be created. Many first homebuyers and increasingly multicultural. New housing is increasingly distant from railway stations but bus services are limited. Being a new seat there is no incumbent with local recognition. Instead Labor will seek to put Emma Vulin, one of Daniel Andrews electorate officers, into the seat. Liberal candidate may be local architect David Farrelly, who opposed Pakenham Skyrail in 2018. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* A general local bus network review with simplified routes and increased residential and industrial area coverage. More frequent service as some waits are longer than the 60 minute 'minimum standard'. 

Ringwood (ALP 3.5%)

Established outer eastern area generally Liberal voting in all but the worst elections for them (eg 2018). Undergoing development in town centre. Anglo middle class demographics with higher incomes in Ringwood North. Areas east of Ringwood have low train frequencies and limited bus services that have not been reviewed for years. The Liberal Party will be campaigning hard in Ringwood especially as Labor incumbent Dustin Halse has announced he will not be seeking re-election. The Liberals Cynthia Watson is likely to be up against Burwood Labor MP Will Fowles (whose seat was abolished in the redistribution). If the Coalition can't win a seat like Ringwood back they have no hope in winning the state. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 10 minute maximum waits. 

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Split bus route 380 to simplify service. Extend Sunday evening service until 9pm. The current route is confusing. It could revert to the previous arrangement where the northern half operated as one route number and the southern half on another route number. Buses could continue to through-route as now. Extending to the 9pm minimum standard finish time would make buses more useful in the area.

* Operate Route 740 all the time, not just peak periods. Do in conjunction with local network review. Area needs more direct and easy to understand full-time bus network. Having peak-only routes just adds confusion.

* Simplify the complex 736 by having a different route number for eastern and western portions. Currently the route is like a sharp hair pin that is confusing to travel on as it starts quite near where it finishes. Splitting into two route numbers at Glen Waverley Station would simplify its use. 

* Local area network review to simplify routes and expand coverage in poorly served areas. Some areas around Ringwood have poor local bus coverage. Some routes may occasionally deviate, making the network hard to understand. Area has had little significant bus route reform in recent years.

South Barwon (ALP 3.9%)

Geelong southern suburban seat not technically in Melbourne but includes some who commute to Melbourne. Includes new housing area such as Armstrong Creek whose residents value Surf Coast proximity at affordable prices. Urban frontier seats like this, where there has been a large redistribution and/or where a high proportion of voters lived at a different address four years ago can be quite difficult to predict and campaign in. Local Labor member is Darren Cheeseman. 2010 - 2018 South Barwon MP Andrew Katos will be Cheeseman's challenger. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Local bus coverage extensions and frequency upgrades to accommodate suburban growth and provide better feeders to local stations and shopping centres. 

* Upgrade local bus routes with longer hours of operation and better weekend frequencies, particularly to Torquay/Jan Juc over summer. May relieve traffic pressures in the area by making bus travel a real option. 

Melton (ALP 5.6%)

Outer growth area and 1970s satellite city considered to have been neglected for many years. Now attracting fast suburban growth but fewer transport, education, health and community facilities than other outer growth areas that seemed to get more. Also feeling unloved due to toxic waste dumping in the area. There have however been new railway stations, train service upgrades, more rail plans and a  proposal for a new hospital. Favoured for its affordable housing within commuting distance of Melbourne CBD but has relatively few local jobs. Labor had major problems in Melton due to a rorting scandal involving former MP Don Nardella in 2017. Nardella didn't stand in 2018 with newcomer Steve McGhie standing instead. McGhie won then but on a low primary vote. McGhie has had some time to build a local profile and memories of Nardella may have faded in 2022. Despite the seat being historically Labor, the Liberals may still have their eyes on western growth area seats like Melton, hoping for results similar to that obtained by their NSW colleagues in Western Sydney.  

 Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Major bus network review in area with buses every 20 minutes or better Monday - Sunday to station via Coburns Rd and Station Rd and a simpler network. Coverage also needs to be expanded. This upgrade would make buses more useful for travel to major local destinations such as Melton Station and Woodgrove Shopping Centre. The frequencies suggested are like those operating in similar growth areas such as Werribee/Tarneit and Cranbourne that received new bus networks in 2015 and 2016.

* Standardise Melton FlexiRide to operate Saturday service hours on public holidays (like regular bus routes)

* Amenity upgrades including improvements at Melton station, bus interchanges and walking access to stops. Improved presentation, shelter, information and pedestrian access could make bus and train services more usable in the area. 

* Melton rail electrification. Has been talked about for years with continued rapid urban growth. Could potentially deliver capacity and speed benefits for the rail corridor out to Ballarat by separating suburban and regional passengers. However it has been bumped back by the more glamorous (and elite-supported) airport rail that could take its Sunshine - City train paths in the absence of other capacity enhancements.

Richmond (ALP 5.9%)

Inner suburban densely populated left-wing area with a diverse population including middle class gentrifiers and low income renters in government housing. Drug policy is a significant local issue with the injecting room in the area. Well served by trains and trams but limited bus connections for access in some directions. Labor's Richard Wynne will be retiring, meaning that there will be no incumbent with the benefit of personal recognition recontesting in 2022. Hence you can expect Richmond to be a priority for Greens and possibly socialist groups. Labor's candidate will be electorate officer Lauren O'Dwyer.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 10 minute maximum waits. 

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Mernda train line to operate every 10 minutes during the day. Extensions to South Morang and Mernda have increased line patronage. 'Turn up and go' train frequencies relieves pressure on nearby trams and provides area with a fast and frequent transport option. Existing 20 minute frequency is low for a train line through a continuously urban area.

* Boost Mernda and Eltham evening train frequencies from every 30 to every 20 minutes. The current 30 minute service is low for a major metropolitan line. Existing timetables reflect 1970s cutbacks and not modern travel pattern. Comparable lines in Sydney operate every 15 minutes at night.

* Boost Mernda and Eltham Sunday morning train frequency to 20 minutes. Current 40 minute service is worse than comparable length lines in the south and east (every 30 minutes). Changing lifestyle patterns have increased demand for early Sunday travel. Comparable lines in Sydney operate every 15 minutes on Sunday mornings.

Green marginals (less than 6% notional margin)

Melbourne (Green 1.6%)

Includes the CBD, CBD fringe areas (eg Docklands) and certain inner suburbs like Kensington and Fizroy. High proportion of apartment dwellers and lower than average car ownership. CBD businesses have been hit hard by COVID lockdowns and the white collar trend towards working from home for CBD workers. Many renters with some underprivileged areas. Ellen Sandell will try to hold the seat for The Greens but her margin is slim. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Added trips on bus route 404 between Footscray and Moonee Ponds including 20 min interpeak weekday frequency, longer hours and new Sunday service.

* Further frequency improvements for bus route 505, particularly off-peak and weekends.  

* Tram network reform including rerouting 12 via LaTrobe St, more trams to the western CBD and reducing the number of routes on Swanston St. Would provide a full-time tram along LaTrobe St and more continuous services via Spencer St. Shifting routes to the western CBD would respond to jobs and activity. Reducing the number of separate routes on Swanston St could allow higher frequencies (eg upgrade from 12 to 10 min interpeak) on each route with more turn-up-and-go service.

* Pedestrian connectivity improvements and multimodal maps at key points to improve interchange. Would increase patronage and passenger confidence when making connections.

Brunswick (Green 2.1%)

Left-wing grungy but trendy inner suburban seat with a mix of gentrifiers and renters. Popular with students and artists with vibrant cultural scene. Lower than average car ownership and higher than average cycling. Public transport is strongly north-south with only weak east-west bus links that are nevertheless quite well used and cheap to upgrade. Area has history of independent militant left activism that placed it at odds with previous Labor governments (eg plans to close the Upfield line and the 1990 tram dispute). Local member is Tim Read who has successfully advocated for modest upgrades to the 505 bus (when Parkville Gardens was in his seat). 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Upfield line train frequency from every 40 to 20 min on Sunday mornings. Would halve maximum waits (from 40 to 20 min) in a densifying corridor.

* Boost Upfield line trains from every 30 min to every 20 min at night. Would reduce evening waits and provide generally better connectivity with trams and buses.  

* Improve evening tram 19 frequency from 20 to 15 min, with greatest priority for early evenings. Service drops to every 20 min too early for a well used route. Keep daytime frequency running longer. 

* Increase weekend frequency on bus routes 504 and 510 and potentially extend latter to Heidelberg. Popular direct bus routes but weekend frequency drops off. Upgrades would make a lot of cross-suburban trips easier. A 510 Heidelberg extension would improve access to the hospitals. 

Liberal marginals (less than 6% notional margin) 

Caulfield (Liberal 0.1%)

Comprises generally neat and respectable well-housed neighbourhoods unlike closer in Prahran or Richmond. Mostly high income south-eastern inner suburban seat normally reliable for the Liberal Party. However has a significant renter demographic in walk-up apartments around areas like Glen Huntly. Most has trains or trams nearby but buses are limited, especially in the east of the seat. David Southwick will recontest this seat for the Liberal Party. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 2: Sandringham line more trains more often / halved maximum waits.

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Extend operating hours and improve weekend frequencies on bus route 605. Current timetable has early evening finishes, late Sunday morning starts and infrequent Sunday service. 

Eildon (Liberal 0.4%)

Peri-urban seat on Melbourne's north-eastern fringe. Includes many middle-aged lifestylers on acreages. May be affluent professionals or retirees. Reliable for the Liberal Party but margins can be small. Stretches deep into rural and high country areas but most voters would be within 60-70 km of Melbourne.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits. 

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Boost weekend (especially Sunday) frequency on Route 685 to Healesville and Healesville Sanctuary. Provide consistent routing in conjunction with network reforms to routes like 684, 686 and 687. Current routes can have inconsistent deviations and destinations. Note that the state government already has a bus review planned for the area.  

* Add trips on the popular Route 683 to Warburton. A popular route that may justify extra services.

* Simplify Night Network so that Route 965 is replaced with additional trips on Routes 683 and 685. Current usage is low. Replacing with additional services on regular routes tends to increase usage by making buses simpler to use, especially for early weekend morning travellers. 

* Simplify Route 684 with simpler holiday timetables. Currently Route 684 operates a non-standard public holiday timetable that can confuse passengers. Reappraise times in conjunction with a local network review. 

Sandringham (Liberal 0.4%)

High income older skew predominantly Anglo-saxon bayside seat. Established suburbia with some townhouse type infill. Pleasant beachside living for those seeking a metropolitan but not intensely urban lifestyle. Served with north-south trains but complex and infrequent buses. Held by Brad Rowswell for the Liberal Party but on a slim margin that they would want to increase.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 2: Sandringham line more trains more often / halved maximum waits.

* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Route 708 service. Boost early weeknight and weekend daytime frequency from every 60 to every 30 - 40 minutes. A route that connects many local destinations including Southland Shopping Centre. Would not require more buses as weekday service is already every 30 min.

* Bus network simplification in Beaumaris area involving the currently complex 600 / 922 / 923 cluster and possibly other routes as well. 

Brighton (Liberal 0.6%)

A very high average income bayside seat that has reliably returned a Liberal member. However it includes young professional renters in Elwood area that are less likely loyal Liberal voters. Seat also has some lower income pockets around Hampton East. Served by the north-south Sandringham line. Buses can be indirect and sometimes infrequent. Incumbent James Newbury will want to do better in 2022 than he did in 2018 when he nearly lost to a young Labor first-time candidate with a tiny campaign budget. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 2: Sandringham line more trains more often / halved maximum waits.

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Route 708 service. Boost early weeknight and weekend daytime frequency from every 60 to every 30 - 40 minutes. A route that connects many local destinations including Southland Shopping Centre. Would not require more buses as weekday service is already every 30 min.

* Bus network simplification in the Elsternwick / Elwood / Brighton area involving the currently complex 600 / 922 / 923 cluster, an upgraded 606 to Port Melbourne and the relatively poorly used 603 and 604.  

Croydon (Liberal 0.6%)

Outer eastern suburbs seat popular with UK migrants and their families who came out in the '60s and '70s. Significant retiree and skilled trades demographics in area. Relatively low housing density with few apartments. Professionals may own acreages in surrounding areas with the train providing an easy commute. Although an outer area Croydon doesn't have the scale of population growth that areas a similar distance from Melbourne to the west and north have. Hence the 2022 redistribution has led to changed boundaries as seats were transferred from slow to fast growing areas. MP David Hodgett (who as shadow transport minister in 2017 proposed trains every 10 minutes) will be recontesting Croydon for the Liberal party. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits. 

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Split bus route 380 to simplify service. Extend Sunday evening service until 9pm. The current route is confusing. It could revert to the previous arrangement where the northern half operated as one route number and the southern half on another route number. Buses could continue to through-route as now. Extending to the 9pm minimum standard finish time would make buses more useful in the area. 

* New Ringwood - Eastfield Rd - Croydon bus to remove a large coverage hole. Would provide new coverage and allow the Route 737 to be run via a consistent Dorset Rd route instead of having to deviate. 

* Local area network review to simplify routes and expand coverage in poorly served areas. Some areas around Croydon have poor local bus coverage. Some routes may occasionally deviate, making the network hard to understand. Area has had little significant bus route reform in recent years. Would include review of Flexiride, especially in areas where there are overlaps with fixed routes, or where fixed routes could easily be extended to replace a Flexiride. 

Glen Waverley (Liberal 0.7% - new seat)

Usually a reasonably safe Liberal-voting area. Includes established middle class retirees and successful working families, often of Asian heritage, who favour the area due to the reputation of local schools. Has a train, tram and buses of varying service levels. The southern part of the seat is also convenient to Monash University Clayton.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Glen Waverley train line to operate every 10 minutes during the day. A frequency upgrade would relieve pressure on the busy Dandenong and Ringwood lines and allow improved connectivity to the Monash precinct.

* Upgrade Glen Waverley train line to operate every 20 minutes on evenings and Sunday mornings. Services are currently only every 30 minutes. This upgrade will make trains more useful for more trips over more of the day and week. Comparable lines in Sydney operate every 15 minutes at these times.

* Improve shoulder peak, Sunday morning and evening services on tram route 75. Catchment is undergoing population densification along tram corridors. Service upgrade would better align trams with modern travel needs. 

* Increase interpeak frequency to 20 min and weekend frequency to 20 - 30 min on Route 693. Extend route to Chadstone Shopping Centre. Would provide improved east-west connectivity across a wide and poorly served area. Potential to do in conjunction with reform to other routes including 742 and 753. 

* Simplify the complex 736 by having a different route number for eastern and western portions. Currently the route is like a sharp hair pin that is confusing to travel on as it starts quite near where it finishes. Splitting into two route numbers at Glen Waverley Station would simplify its use. 

* Simplify local bus routes in area east of Springvale Rd, especially between High St Road and Ferntree Gully Rd. Currently has routes that go different ways during peak and off-peak (eg 754). Reform here could be done in conjunction with improvements in Rowville, Mulgrave and Dandenong North. 

 

Berwick (Liberal 1.0% - new seat)

A new south-eastern growth area seat including rural areas to the north, established areas (with a train) in the middle and poorly served new 'mortgage belt' housing areas to the south. Old Berwick is regarded as the Toorak of the outer south-east. People in the area aspire to buy there but mostly can only afford Narre Warren or (newer) Clyde with a desire for better transport to Berwick. Enjoys better health and education facilities than most in the outer south-east. Also has a historic main street for local shopping with Narre Warren's Fountain Gate a drawcard for larger items. Nominally Liberal. Their candidate will be Brad Battin who is the current member for the abolished seat of Gembrook. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Review local complex bus routes to simplify, extend coverage and enable improved frequency. In particular split the complex 834/835 loop and join existing routes to provide a Berwick - Clyde - Cranbourne bus. Berwick area has had some new bus routes added but hasn't had a comprehensive area network review for at least 10 years. 

Bayswater (Liberal 1.1% - currently Labor held)

A 1960s - 1980s established outer eastern suburb seat covering much of the City of Knox. Includes several major shopping centres and a light industrial area around Bayswater. Has limited frequency trains and never got a full bus network. Bayswater is currently Labor held by Jackson Taylor who faces an uphill battle due to the unfavourable redistribution and competition from a known name in Nick Wakeling MP whose Ferntree Gully seat has been abolished. Taylor has been a very active first term MP and will have a profile in 2022 that he lacked in 2018. That may be enough to ward off a strong challenger unless there is a significant anti-Labor statewide swing.   

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits. 

* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Major bus network review in area with simpler, more direct and more frequent services seven days per week. Reroute 664 via Scoresby Rd to Knox City to fill a long-standing service gap on Scoresby Rd. Upgrade existing routes to 7 days/week, remove confusing deviations, add more direct routes and boost service frequencies. Many areas around Knox were settled 30 - 40 years ago but are still waiting for a regular bus service. Existing services are indirect, infrequent and sometimes duplicate one another. Major roads (eg Scoresby Rd) have as little as one bus per day over their entire length.

* On the infrastructure side, there is some local interest in a tram 75 extension to Knox City with this being promoted by the Liberal candidate. 

Evelyn (Liberal 1.9%)

Eastern fringe Liberal voting area. Semi-rural areas in the east but the bulk of the population is in suburbs such as Mooroolbark, Chirnside Park and Lilydale. Fastest growth in 1960s - 1980s with relatively slow subsequent population growth compared to outer areas in the west, north and south-east. Ethnically homogeneous with a high rate of home and car ownership. Local public transport has been stuck in a time-warp with few service upgrades in recent years although there have been some level crossing removals and new stations. Currently represented by Bridget Vallence for the Liberal Party.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits. 

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Boost weekend (especially Sunday) frequency on Route 685 to Healesville and Healesville Sanctuary. Provide consistent routing in conjunction with network reforms to routes like 684, 686 and 687. Current routes can have inconsistent deviations and destinations. Note that the state government already has a bus review planned for the area.  

* Add trips on the popular Route 683 to Warburton. A popular route that may justify extra services.

* Simplify Night Network so that Route 965 is replaced with additional trips on Routes 683 and 685. Current usage is low. Replacing with additional services on regular routes tends to increase usage by making buses simpler to use, especially for early weekend morning travellers. 

* Simplify Route 684 with simpler holiday timetables. Currently Route 684 operates a non-standard public holiday timetable that can confuse passengers.

Bass (Liberal 2.4% - currently Labor held)

Mostly semi-rural or rural seat around Western Port but abuts fast-growing rural-urban fringe areas near Cranbourne and Pakenham. Existing public transport is V/Line coach and a few metropolitan bus routes. Some would drive to stations on the Cranbourne / Pakenham line. Incumbent Jordan Crugnale will be recontesting Bass for Labor. The redistribution has been unfavourable for her but she has the benefit of an existing strong local profile. Several new bus services have been added in the area while she's been the local member.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Extend the Cranbourne rail line to Clyde with reformed and upgraded local buses. 

* Simplify and improve 776 bus from Frankston with more trips to Pearcedale including Sunday trips. Current route is complex and does not run 7 days per week. Should be done in conjunction with Frankston area network review. 

* Review Westernport Bay area bus network (eg Route 795 and V/line services) with a view to running simpler routes seven days per week. 

* Review the timetabling of the Stony Point train line and the Interisland ferry to improve connectivity in both travel directions on all days of the week and promote this as a travel option to French and Phillip Islands, especially from the Frankston area where it is quicker than driving.

Warrandyte (Liberal 4.2%)

Comfortable and relaxed with plenty of shade. A mix of semi-rural and high income / low density suburbia including neighbourhoods like Donvale, Doncaster East and Ringwood North. Older adult demographics often in big houses with adult children and all their cars still living at home. Though on this marginal seat list, it's hard to see the Coalition losing a seat like this (unless Victoria 2022 delivers a WA 2021 style landslide result). 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits. 

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Split bus route 380 to simplify service. Extend Sunday evening service until 9pm. The current route is confusing. It could revert to the previous arrangement where the northern half operated as one route number and the southern half on another route number. Buses could continue to through-route as now. Extending to the 9pm minimum standard finish time would make buses more useful in the area. 

Kew (Liberal 4.6%)

A traditional high income inner suburban 'blue ribbon' Liberal seat of particular interest in 2022 due to the escapades of former member Tim Smith. Undergoing population densification with more townhouses whose professional tenants may not share the voting intentions of their parents. Has strong tram and bus links but only limited north-south bus connectivity. Jess Wilson from the Business Council will be seeking to hold Kew for the Liberal Party. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 10 minute maximum waits. 

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade bus route 609 to provide improved Chandler Hwy connection and extend all trips to Hawthorn Station. Operate 7 days per week. Current route runs a few trips per day only. Upgrade would complete a missing link for which demand is demonstrated (refer to traffic volumes on Chandler Hwy).

Rowville (Liberal 4.9%)

1960s - 1980s suburbia with main roads forming a coarse grid but often indirect residential streets between them. Many neighbourhoods never got a full bus network even at minimum standards of service making them some of the least served in Melbourne. Reliably returns Liberal members with the margin reduced in the 2018 election. Local MP is Kim Wells who has held it or a nearby seat since 1992. Wells advocated for public transport upgrades before the 2014 election but was instrumental in getting Stud Rd bus lanes removed a few years prior. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits. 

* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Do local bus network review in Rowville and Lysterfield area encompassing resources from routes 681/682, 691, 754 and Rowville Flexiride.   Area has not had a real bus network review for years. The most recent change simply layered FlexiRide over an existing unchanged network. Reform should seek to deliver a simplified 7 day network with improved connections to surrounding attractions including Glen Waverley, Ferntree Gully and Knox City as well as adequate internal coverage. 

Mornington (Liberal 5.0%)

Regarded as a safeish Liberal seat with an older homogeneous middle class population. Suburban density in the west near the bay with a lower density in the east and south around Mt Martha. Large areas without bus coverage, particularly parts of Mt Martha and Mt Eliza. Currently held by the Liberals long-serving David Morris, the seat will be contested in 2022 by former federal MP Chris Crewther who defeated Morris in the party preselection. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Review the local bus network with special attention paid to simplifying routes and closing coverage gaps in the area. Revised routes may include one via Moorooduc Hwy to provide a better connection to the Monash Peninsula campus and a cross-peninsula service to Hastings. 

Bulleen (Liberal 5.4%)

A high income eastern suburban seat held by Liberal leader Matthew Guy. Includes busier and developed areas around Doncaster Rd and quieter riverside areas around Templestowe. No trains or trams but a major beneficiary of frequent DART SmartBuses and SmartBus orbitals. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Simplify local bus routes including operating all Route 279 trips the same way (to Doncaster) and, in conjunction with local network reforms, merge 281 and 293 into a single route via High St operating every 15 minutes. Also reappraise usage of all bus routes on Reynolds Rd with a view to merging to form a single direct route from Heidelberg Station to The Pines. Current buses are complex, do not all run 7 days and sometime have low patronage. A review would provide an opportunity to reappraise and simplify the network.  

* Public transport infrastructure projects mentioned in previous campaigns include a tram 48 extension to Shoppingtown and heavy rail to Doncaster.  

Conclusion

The above has been a seat by seat look at potential cost-effective public transport service upgrades for all Melbourne metropolitan seats with a margin of under 6%. 

Comments as welcome if you have any other service upgrade ideas. 

Next week in Part 3 I'll look at potential improvements in less marginal seats that could nevertheless swing in 2022. These are still of great interest since the Coalition needs to win a lot of these seats to win office. In other cases a hostile redistribution may trouble an incumbent member, such as with Prahran where Green incumbent Sam Hibbins may struggle against Labor. 

Others in this series

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 1 Metropolitan overview

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals (this one)

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 3 Less marginal seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 4 Safer seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 5 The safest seats 

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrade by seat - Part 6 Summary

NOTE: This item may be updated nearer the 2022 state election if interesting facts about seats and candidates come to hand.