A detailed seat by seat list of upgrades appeared last week for the marginals as Part 2. Today I'll do the same for less marginal (but still potentially changeable) seats. That is seats that need more than 6% to change their member. These include seats that the Coalition must win to form government in November.
Swings are not necessarily uniform state-wide. Some marginal seats can be retained while less marginal seats can swing more and be lost. Parties may wish to campaign in all seats, regardless of margin, to boost their Legislative Council vote. Also some marginal seat upgrades may also benefit adjoining safer seats so should be promoted in these areas as well.
Again I'll go through seats in decreasing order of marginality. I will cover what I will call 'near marginal' seats (6-10% margin) and 'not safe' seats (10-15% margin). I use the latter description because some of these seats have been held by the Coalition within the last decade.
All but one seats described today are Labor held. While there are Coalition held seats with these margins, these are less likely to be pivotal in determining who runs the state. A further large pro-Labor swing would be extraordinary given the size of its win in 2018. However it's not inconceivable given the near-wipe-out the Coalition faced in WA. I'll cover these safer coalition seats (as well as even safer Labor seats) next week.
(notional 6 - 10% margin)
Monbulk (ALP 8.4%)
Outer eastern seat including suburban areas between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave north to the Dandenong Ranges with rural fringe areas further east (which the redistribution adds). Includes people who like living amongst the trees but within commuting distance of Melbourne as well as older established folk. Held by deputy premier James Merlino, it's the sort of seat that could change hands if there is a significant anti-Labor swing.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 1: Belgrave/Lilydale line more trains more often / 20 minute maximum waits.
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Bus upgrades in Upper Ferntree Gully area including increased frequency on Route 693 and simplification of local routes such as 694, 695, 695F, 697, 732 and 699.
* Weekend frequency upgrade for Route 688 through the Dandenongs.
Cranbourne (ALP 9.0)
A south-eastern fringe growth area with much new housing and young families, many from overseas or first generation Australian. Seat is an almost perfect square centred on Cranbourne. Area gained a revamped bus network in 2016 with subsequent additions in the Clyde area. However there remain many loose ends and a further review is now needed as routes have just been put on top of one another with dead-end termini. Services, roads and infrastructure are a common local topic of discussion. The area will gain from Cranbourne line duplication with the February timetable offering improved peak train frequency.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 8: Growth area logical extensions
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* The extension of the Cranbourne line to Clyde, promised by the Coalition in 2018, is almost certain to come up in 2022. Since then the area has only grown more. It will need to be advocated by anyone seriously interested in retaining or winning this seat.
Albert Park (ALP 9.2%)
CBD fringe inner bayside seat that includes not only the affluent suburb that bears its name but areas as far east as Punt Rd, the renter-rich Southbank and the large Fishermans Bend industrial area slated for future redevelopment. Also includes some public housing in South Melbourne and the least accessible part of Docklands along Lorimer St. A new Metro Tunnel station at Anzac will benefit the eastern part of the seat as will associated tram network reform around Park St. The current member is Labor's Martin Foley who is also health minister.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 12: Tram service refresh.
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Frequency upgrades to the 606 bus (potentially in conjunction with 600/922/923 simplification further south).
* Upgrade to Fishermans Bend buses to serve densifying residential and other land uses in the area.
* Infrastructure of local interest includes proposals for a tram extension across the Yarra to serve currently poorly serviced parts of Fishermans Bend and provide a connection to Docklands across the Yarra.
Eltham (ALP 10%)
A highly treed north-east Melbourne fringe area seat loved by residents for its 'clean and green' lifestyle within commuting distance of Melbourne via Hurstbridge line trains. Area can be considered to be 'comfortable and relaxed' with a high proportion of older adults in their own detached houses. The largest shopping area and transit hub is at Greensborough, just outside the seat. Eltham has had a significant number of bus upgrades but routes often overlap, do not necessarily connect with trains and may be poorly used. Represented by Labor's Vicki Ward.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
(none for this area)
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade evening and Sunday morning train services from every 30-40 to every 20 minutes to as far as Eltham.
* Local bus review involving simplifying routes such as 343, 513, 517, 518, 580 and 582 with improved connectivity to surrounding centres including Greensborough, Northland and La Trobe University.
Frankston (ALP 10.2%)
The first of a slew of formerly marginal bayside 'sandbelt' seats that determined election outcomes in years such as 2010 and 2014. A bellwether seat for at least the last several elections. Based on the important suburban centre of Frankston which features low income earners to its north-east balanced by high earners to its south. Frankston is the outermost of the sandbelt seats all of which swung strongly to Labor in 2018. Held by Labor's Paul Edbrooke.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
* 11: Peninsula and Westernport Transport Action
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Simplify complex 770 and 771 in Karingal area. Currently buses operate with confusing single direction sections.
* Upgrade Route 833 to operate every 20 min weekdays and 20-30 min weekends at least between Frankston and Carrum Downs. Remove backtracking via Frankston - Dandenong Rd to simplify route and speed through travel.
* Review bus netwwork in Frankston South to simplify services.
Narre Warren North (ALP 10.5%)
Outer suburban seat mostly north of Pakenham railway with housing developed mainly in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. Even though further from Melbourne its average incomes are higher than some areas along the Princes Hwy corridor closer to the CBD. The area's existence demonstrate the attraction of upwardly mobile lower-middle class families to newer/bigger housing and perceived better schools compared to closer in established areas like Doveton, Noble Park and Springvale. Includes the massive Fountain Gate Shopping Centre and the hub of the City of Casey. Held by long term member Luke Donnellan who will not be recontesting in 2022. This means that both Labor and Coalition candidates will be new faces.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 8: Growth area logical extensions
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Local bus network review to simplify buses in Narre Warren North, and provide improved connections to Fountain Gate, Dandenong Hospital and Dandenong TAFE by reforming local routes in area (eg 841, 182, 861, 863 etc).
Narre Warren South (ALP 10.7%)
Wedge-shaped outer south-eastern seat between the Cranbourne and Pakenham railway lines. Similar margin and demographics to abovementioned Narre Warren North. Includes everything from 1970s low to middle income neighbourhoods at Hampton Park, large block acreages on Pound Rd and new estates in the seat's south-east. Grade separation at Hallam Rd and reconstructed station should provide for improved train - bus interchange. Narre Warren South has always been held by the Labor Party since its creation in 2002. Gary Maas MP will be recontesting it for Labor.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 8: Growth area logical extensions
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Area is overdue for a reappraisal of local bus services. Local network review could simplify complex routes like 894, add connections to Lynbrook Station, reduce inefficient overlaps and better link to jobs at Dandenong South and Fountain Gate.
Bentleigh (ALP 11.5%)
The most inner, highest-earning and most university educated of the belt of (formerly) marginal Frankston line seats, Bentleigh has gentrified due to its handy location and access to highly rated schools such as McKinnon Secondary. Area has benefited from recent level crossing removals. Its residents include a middle class demographic that (at the state level) has recently felt more comfortable with Labor than an authoritarian-leaning 'law and order' Liberal Party. Incumbent MP Nick Staikos will be the Labor candidate.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Local bus network review to simplify bus routes in Bentleigh East and provide improved access to jobs in Moorabbin light industrial area.
Carrum (ALP 12%)
Another previously marginal sandbelt seat, Carrum was a seat the Liberals hoped for (and needed to win) in 2018 but instead went the other way, swinging strongly to Labor. The seat streatches from the established (but densifying) coastal strip to touch the new estates of Cranbourne west. Key neighbourhoods include the big boat-owning Liberal-voting Patterson Lakes and the larger working-to-middle-class Carrum Downs further inland (which also hosts a significant light industrial area). The area has just seen several level crossings removed and the Mordialloc Freeway completed, making driving easier to jobs at Heatherton, Braeside and Moorabbin. Labor's Sonya Kilkenny will be seeking her third term as the member for Carrum in 2022.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade Route 833 to operate every 20 min weekdays and 20-30 min weekends at least between Frankston and Carrum Downs. Remove backtracking via Frankston - Dandenong Rd to simplify route and speed through travel.
Middle suburban northern Melbourne seat centred on Heidelberg and Hurstbridge railway line. Incomes (and propensity to vote Liberal) rise from north-west (Heidelberg West) to south-east (Eaglemont) by the Yarra. Has several hospitals and well regarded private schools. Leafy with most homes as separate houses. Has a history of being a marginal seat but generally only won by the Liberals in their landslide wins. Parts of seat (notably the south-west) abut the inner north in which Greens do well. Area has benefited from Hurstbridge line upgrade. Local member is Anthony Carbines who advocated for improved Hurstbridge line evening train reliability and frequency in 2016.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade evening and Sunday morning train frequency from every 30 - 40 min to every 20 min at least to Eltham.
* Major bus upgrades including extending Route 903 SmartBus to LaTrobe University from Heidelberg and a premium service 'Megabus' every 10 minutes between Heidelberg and Coburg via Northland.
Point Cook (ALP 12.4%)
A middle to outer western suburban seat. Main areas include 1970s-80s lower to middle class Altona Meadows and 1990s-2000s middle class Point Cook. The latter has more a white collar workforce profile more like an eastern suburbs seat. IWith no post-secondary education and almost no internal jobs apart from retail and some self-employed, Point Cook (the suburb) saw large commuter flows traversing its few road connections to the outside world pre-COVID. The area gained from the new Williams Landing station and a revamped bus network in 2013. Some incremental bus upgrades have happened since. Point Cook is a new seat, replacing parts of the abolished Altona (along with Williamstown). The latter have been reliable for the Labor party though the middle class profile of Point Cook might give the Liberals a chance, especially if they select a candidate that appeals to the area's multicultural population. Labor's Jill Hennessy, who currently represents Altona, will be retiring, meaning that Labor will need to select a new candidate.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 8: Growth area logical extensions
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade Route 411 to SmartBus for entire route between Footscray, Altona North, Altona Meadows and Laverton. Done in conjunction with reform to Route 903 and 412 in Sunshine / Altona area.
* Add a new bus route in the Point Cook area between Laverton Station, Sneydes Rd, Hoppers Crossing and Werribee Plaza (or Werribee CBD).
* Improved bicycle connectivity and storage near Williams Landing Station.
Niddrie (ALP 12.5%)
North-west middle suburban seat held by transport minister Ben Carroll since 2012. A mix of pre and postwar suburbs where trams meet freewayed autopia, often with poor outcomes for walkability. Has many private schools with a wide catchment. Includes a higher than average proportion of children in Catholic schools and residents born in Italy. Niddrie has reliably voted Labor for decades and is too far from the CBD for The Greens to pose any electoral threat.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 12: Tram service refresh.
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade Routes 407 and 468 to operate 7 days.
* Simplify buses by splitting Route 469 at Airport West Shoppingtown (and renumbering one half 466).
* Airport line station at Keilor East. This would provide rapid transit to a large catchment without it and diversify airport line patronage. Further details in a feasability study commissioned by Moonee Valley Council and in my blog post here.
Prahran (ALP 12.8% but Greens held)
Inner suburban bayside seat known for its night life. Well connected with trams in all directions. Currently held by Greens transport spokesperson Sam Hibbins who has overseen a shift in his party's transport advocacy emphasis from public transport to electric car driving. Prahran's redistribution has greatly strengthened Labor's prospects. Containing a mixed population of 'old money' retirees, professionals, gays, rich trendies, Jews and public housing tenants this diverse seat is one where Liberal, Labor and the Greens have taken seriously. Hibbins will have a difficult time holding this seat, though he has an advantage of the higher profile that being an incumbent MP confers.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 2: Sandringham line more trains more often / halved maximum waits.
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 12: Tram service refresh.
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgraded frequency and operating hours for Route 606 (potentially in conjunction with 600/922/923 simplification in St Kilda/Brighton area).
* Upgrade for 78 tram (subject of local campaign by Sam Hibbins MP)
Mordialloc (ALP 13.4%)
A Frankston line sandbelt swing seat geographically and socio-economically between Bentleigh and Carrum. Includes high income earners along the bay (especially further north) and an older pensioner population in villa units around Chelsea. There is more new housing and greater cultural diversity in the east around Keysborough. Level crossing removals were a topical issue a few years ago in Melbourne's south-east with opposition to 'Sky Rail' being built on the Dandenong and later Frankston lines. Mordialloc MP Tim Richardson strongly backed trench rather than elevated rail with it being considered a threat to his seat and potentially even Labor's hold on government in 2018. As it turned out other issues dominated that campaign and Labor was returned with an increased majority including large swings to it in sandbelt seats. Trench rail ultimately got built at Edithvale, Chelsea and Bonbeach, as opposed to elevated rail at Carrum. Apart from opposition at Parkdale (where level crossing removals are planned), sentiment opposing Sky Rail has lessened with the Carrum example being considered a success with great bay views from the station and train. Mordialloc has also seen the construction of three new stations (at Edithvale, Chelsea and Bonbeach) and the opening of the Mordialloc Freeway linking the area to jobs at Braeside and Moorabbin. Tim Richardson MP is recontesting the seat for Labor. Liberal Party member and Kingston Council candidate Jane Agirtan has been highly active on social media and it would not be surprising if she is angling for preselection.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade bus route 705 and reroute to operate to Monash University Clayton to provide faster connection to Monash University Clayton from Mordialloc.
* Reform or extend bus routes to provide a direct connection to Dandenong South jobs from the Keysborough area.
* Improve weekend service on Routes 811/812 to operate better than hourly along Lower Dandenong Rd.
Werribee (ALP 13.6%)
An outer western multicultural low to middle income growth area seat held by State Treasurer Tim Pallas. Considered a safe Labor seat but, unlike in the south-east, Labor did poorly on primary vote in this area in 2018. This is because, like Melton, local representation was found wanting due to controversies and backdowns over matters like youth dentention centres, toxic waste dumps and local services. Also, like Melton, strong local independent candidates were able to tap sentiment of those displeased with Labor but uninspired by Liberal candidates. Nevertheless, with its core homeowner base in the established east ageing and shrinking, the Liberal Party will likely target outer suburban seats like Werribee in 2022 with leader Matthew Guy paying a visit earlier this month. Whichever candidate they choose will need to relate well with settlers from the Indian subcontinent, who have massively changed the seat's demographics in the last 20 years.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Extended growth area coverage including a route to Mambourin as new housing gets built.
Sunbury (ALP 14.6%)
A white Anglo type seat with an older population skew, Sunbury has historically seen slower population growth than more diverse northern and western growth areas such as Tarneit, Melton and Craigieburn. These characteristics make it more like an outer eastern suburban seat, though with less tree cover. Sunbury, like Melton was nominated as a satellite city in the 1970s. It only recently got rail electrification (albeit at half frequency), something that Melton is still waiting for. Its relationship with electrification was ambiguous as some locals preferred their less frequent but more comfortable V/Line trains that, until the minister changed the rules, they could no longer use. The intense debate before that change raised identity issues Sunbury has, ie whether it is a proudly separate country town (that gave birth to The Ashes) or really part of metropolitan Melbourne on which it is dependent for many of its peoples jobs. A similar debate led to an unsuccessful push for Sunbury to secede from the City of Hume with its own council. Represented by Labor's Josh Bull.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
none included
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Train frequency upgrades including service boosted from every 30-40 to every 20 minutes at night and on Sunday mornings.
* 7 day buses with improved coverage at Diggers Rest.
Conclusion
While less marginal than the seats last week, seats like these are still key to 2022's result. Their voters occupy the middle ground that Australian compulsory preferential voting system rewards. Thus a good result in these seats is important for whichever party or coalition forms government.
Have you read all items in this series? You will need to for today's item to make sense. If not see them here:
How to win votes with public transport in 2022
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 1 Metropolitan overview
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 3 less marginal seats (this one)
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 4 safer seats
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 5 The safest seats
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrade by seat - Part 6 Summary
NOTE: This item may be updated nearer the 2022 state election if interesting facts about seats and candidates come to hand.
3 comments:
The series of posts has been very useful and I expect politicians and their staff have read them and might even cherry pick.
Aside from the very end of Punt Road at St Kilda Junction, the seat of Albert Park is well distant from Punt Road with its eastern boundary being St Kilda Road, Albert Road and Queens Road. The South Yarra enclave in the seat of Prahran would make quite a difference to both electorates.
Neither councilor nor Liberal Party member, Jane Agirtan was genuinely surprised to find out she was running in November's state election.
Agirtan was treasurer of local Liberal branches until March 2022 (see LinkedIn). She has been politically very active on social media, describing herself as a 'community advocate'. She will be backing independent candidates in Mordialloc and Clarinda.
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