Part 2 a fortnight ago covered the marginal seats in detail. Last week in Part 3 I looked at less marginal (but still potentially changeable) seats. This only covered Labor seats under the assumption that 2018 was a high water mark for Labor and that the Coalition would retain all their seats won in 2018 despite their margins being thinner.
Such an assumption has limitations, for example it excludes the possibility of a further drubbing as occurred in Western Australia. There may also be issues in particular seats due to the redistribution, retirements and scandals. Hence I shall cover all Greater Melbourne area seats, no matter how apparently safe, in this series.
Today I’ll cover two sets of much safer seats. This includes Labor seats with a 15 to 20% margin and Coalition seats with a 6 to 10% margin. While the latter looks slim, seats in both the Labor and Coalition lists have rarely if ever been held by the other side.
Unless swings in November are very pronounced these seats are unlikely
to have a role in who forms government.
However this does not mean that parties should ignore them for
campaigning purposes. Strong or at least fair results in all seats are needed
for the governing party to get a majority (or at least a workable minority) in
the Legislative Council, and thus pass its bills.
Unlike (say) primary schools but like larger hospitals and TAFEs, bus roues and train lines rarely serve just a single seat. Instead longer routes may serve 5 or more seats. Hence a service upgrade that benefits one or two marginal seats can easily also benefit safer seats too.
(notional 15-20% margin)
Clarinda (ALP 15%)
A diverse seat in Melbourne's middle south-east. Not directly served by rail but will be traversed by the proposed Suburban Rail Loop whose stabling yard location is being opposed by vocal Heatherton residents. Has traditionally been the site of other Green Wedge anti-development campaigns spearheaded by middle class homeowners around Dingley and Heatherton. However the strongly Labor suburbs of Clarinda and Noble Park make a loss for Labor's Meng Heang Tak unlikely.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Add extra trips to and extend Route 705 to terminate at Monash University Clayton to form fast route from Mordialloc area.
* Increased weekend frequency on Routes 811/812.
Essendon (ALP 15.8%)
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Reduce Craigieburn line maximum waits by increasing evening and Sunday morning frequency from every 30-40 to every 20 minutes.
* Boost Craigieburn line interpeak and preferably weekend daytime frequency from 20 to 10 minutes.
* Extend operating hours and add Sunday service to bus route 468 to deliver a 7 day Highpoint connection from Essendon station.
* Simplify local buses by operating bus route 469 as two separate route numbers (with split at Airport West).
* Boost Tram 82 services to a level more similar to other trams in Melbourne by boosting evening service from every 30 to every 20 minutes.
Oakleigh (ALP 16.1%)
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 5: Suburban Rail Loop East SmartBus Stage 1 / Linking the South-east
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Extension to Chadstone and major frequency and operating hours upgrade for bus route 693 along Ferntree Gully Rd to improve access to the northern Monash precinct.
Mulgrave (ALP 16.4%)
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Bus network simplification in Mulgrave area including simpler and more frequent services along Police Rd connecting with trains at Clayton.
* Additional pedestrian crossings on busy Police Rd since continuous fast traffic makes sections uncrossable.
Yan Yean (ALP 16.4%)
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 8: Growth area logical extensions
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade bus route 390 to run every 20 minutes 7 days to provide a stronger east-west link.
* Upgrade bus route 389 from 5 to 7 days.
* New bus route serving estates east of Donnybrook station along Donnybrook Rd and other growth areas as needed.
* A package of rail service and infrastructure upgrades including (i) all-week frequency boosts on Seymour line, (ii) new V/Line station at Beveridge and (iii) rail electrification to Wallan.
* Mernda area mini-network review to split complex 388/389 loop into two simpler linear routes and consider alignment given the new route 390 in area.
Sydenham (ALP 17.7%)
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* North West Bus Rapid Transit: Two new Bus Rapid Transit lines along Taylors and Gourlay Rds, featuring dedicated lanes and 7 day high frequency service extending east to Melbourne Airport and Broadmeadows (concept here).
* Upgrade Bus Route 420 to SmartBus with longer operating hours and higher frequency.
* Maximum wait for trains to Watergardens reduced from 30-40 min to 20 min with increased evening and Sunday morning frequencies.
* Trains to Watergardens upgraded from every 20 min to every 10 minutes during the day 7 days.
Tarneit (ALP 17.7%)
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).
* 8: Growth area logical extensions
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Further bus network coverage extensions. * Upgrade Werribee line to operate every 10 minutes during the day.
Bundoora (ALP 18.1%)
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 12: Tram service refresh.
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade of Route 566 bus including regular 15-20 min 7 day service, extension to Epping Plaza, longer operating hours and splitting at Greensborough to simplify route.
* Bus network simplification in Greensborough area including routing all 513 trips the same way and boosting local bus frequencies from 22-26 min to 20 min to harmonise with trains.
* Hurstbridge line train service upgrade to reduce maximum waits from 30-40 to 20 min on evenings and Sunday mornings as far as Eltham.
St Albans (ALP 18.8%)
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade Bus Route 420 to SmartBus with longer operating hours and higher frequency.
* New bus route from Deer Park to St Albans via Cairnlea to improve local coverage.
* Maximum wait for trains to Watergardens reduced from 30-40 min to 20 min with increased evening and Sunday morning frequencies.
* Trains to Watergardens upgraded from every 20 min to every 10 minutes during the day 7 days.
* North-west bus rapid transit for improved east-west buses and potential connectivity to Melbourne Airport (see under Sydenham above).
Williamstown (ALP 19.0)
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Upgrade bus route 415 to run longer hours, 7 days per week and more frequent than every 80 minutes on weekends.
* Altona North bus network revamp including boosting Route 411 to a more frequent/longer hours SmartBus, simpler more direct routes along Blackshaws and Masons Rd to Newport Station and a new Fishermans Bend bus connection from Newport Station.
Lara (ALP 19.1)
* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Extended operating hours on other local bus routes.
* Access and amenity improvements at local stations.
Malvern (Liberal 6.2%)
Wealthy inner-south-east seat wedged between Dandenong Rd and Gardiners Creek. Has always been held by Liberal Party. Current member is former party leader Michael O'Brien. Includes some older shopping strips along tram routes and the massive Chadstone shopping centre in the seat's east.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places
* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps
* 9: Weekend bus boosts
* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places
* 12: Tram service refresh.
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Short tram extensions to nearest station.
Narracan (Liberal 6.6%)
A fringe area seat only included as parts are very close to metropolitan Melbourne in Pakenham. Hence it is likely to attract some spillover growth, especially when the electrified rail network is extended to Pakenham East. The seat is held by Liberal member Gary Blackwood.
Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)
* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.
* 8: Growth area logical extensions
Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)
* Frequency upgrades and other improvements for Traralgon trains.
Conclusion
Seats like these rarely change hands so will likely not be deciders of who form government. Nevertheless they still cannot be taken for granted. We have had some very volatile results in states like WA and Queensland in the last 10-15 years. If these were replicated here then even these seats could swing.
Margins in safe seats can be eroded by the antics or record of the party that holds them. This is especially where a party regards safe seat preselections as sinecures that can be traded in factional deals. The ensuing party hack that gets parachuted in may have few local ties, take local constituents for granted and be rarely seen in the seat, choosing instead to live well outside it.
Where the chosen candidate is more public celebrity than unknown hack, there are still risks. This is because 'prima-donna' celebrities may be unaccustomed to working with others in the party or impatient with doing (often boring) constituent work and events.
Even if the opposing major party still has too weak a primary vote to seriously challenge the lazy member, scope exists for a strong local independent to harvest preferences and pose a threat or at least make the seat much less safe. The threat of this is amplified when there is an unpopular state or national government, a particular policy issue important in a seat is poorly handled or if there is a by-election (which can favour non-government candidates).
In other cases party-affiliated MPs may resign or be expelled from the party. At the next election the party may select a new candidate and, if they are sufficiently disgruntled, the incumbent member may stand as an independent. To the extent that the latter retains some personal vote, that may at least weaken the party's margin, making the seat less safe, particularly with hostile preferencing.
We've so far only discussed the lower house. A safe seat may be grouped with less safe seats to form a multi-member region used for the Legislative Council. A successful government needs to be able to pass legislation. Even if it doesn't quite get a majority in the Council, it needs enough to make it easy to partner with a small number of broadly sympathetic independent or minor party MPs. Even though some people vote differently for each house, broadly speaking Legislative Assembly support for a party roughly correlates with Legislative Council support. Hence high primary votes in safe Legislative Assembly seats are not completely 'wasted' if they contribute to a good result for the party in the Legislative Council.
The lesson in all this is that not even 'safe' seats can be taken for granted even from a narrow political point of view. Besides people in these areas still need public transport service upgrades too!
Have you read all items in this series? You will need to for today's item to make sense. If not see them here:
How to win votes with public transport in 2022
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 1 Metropolitan overview
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 3 Less marginal seats
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 4 Safer seats (this one)
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 5 The safest seats
Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrade by seat - Part 6 Summary
NOTE: This item may be updated nearer the 2022 state election if interesting facts about seats and candidates come to hand.
No comments:
Post a Comment