Election 2022 special: Public transport upgrades by seat - Part 5 The safest seats

Here’s the last of our election special seat by seat run through. It covers the safest seats with over a 20% margin. Mostly in Melbourne’s north and west, all are held by Labor. While the boundaries and electorate names may have changed over decades, Labor’s hold on them hasn’t, even during landslide Coalition victories in the 1970s and 1990s. In fact some have become more Labor as they became more urban.

Such safety can cause parties, especially when in government, to take such seats for granted. MPs may rarely attend to constituents concerns or even live near the seat they represent. This is unlike marginal seat MPs whose job is on the line if they are not visible in the community or winning funding for things in their seat. With the odd personal scandal, a tired on-the-nose government, a recession, some local issues and a strong local independent candidate even safe seats can produce savage electoral backlashes, especially in by-elections.

Political party membership has shrunk and became less representative. Those remaining in parties tend to the extremes, whereas Australian voters tend to the centre, with the latter aided by our compulsory preferential voting system. Politics has became professionalised with the most common background for new MPs being political staffer, communications adviser or similar. 

Increasingly the personal backgrounds, experiences and tastes of MPs can diverge from voters in the seats they represent. Labor has a problem with middle-class MPs disconnected from working class voters in some of its suburban seats. Meanwhile the average Coalition MP is richer, whiter and more likely to be male than the population in seats it needs to win, again in suburban areas. Parties demand absolute loyalty that deters independent thinkers from nominating while parliamentary votes may be based more on tactics than what members actually believe.

Safe seats can become the currency of backroom factional deals with horsetrading over the heads of ordinary branch members. A celebrity candidate can be imposed by party head office onto a safe seat for which they have no local connection. This is a particular problem for Labor as its party organisation is more centralised and more able to impose its will than the Liberal and National party organisations. While generating wider excitement, such candidates imposed by head offices or faction leaders can demoralise local branch members who have their own political ambitions.

Imposed candidates can lessen volunteer morale. Fewer of an already diminishing pool of party members are willing to stand at polling booths and letterbox for an out of area candidate they did not support. Labor was able to temporarily boost numbers through superior field organisation in 2014 and its non ‘pub test passing’ ‘Red Shirts’ scheme. However in the long term this cannot replace parties having active (not moribund) local branches brimming with active socially normal members reasonably representative of and connected to local communities.

All this means that despite the heading no seat is truly ‘safe’ despite how strong the numbers look today. With that out of the way, let’s get on with our run-through.

Labor safest (20%+ margin) 

Kalkallo      (ALP 20.4) 

New northern suburb growth area seat based around relatively established Craigieburn and new leapfrog-style housing development further north around Donnybrook and Beveridge with few local services. Craigieburn is a lower income area popular with people from India and the Middle East. Average incomes and workforce participation tend to be higher on the new estates where a greater proportion of homes are owner occupied and require a particular income to qualify for a mortgage. However as the population ages the area can degentrify over a 20 or 30 year period with falling incomes relative to other areas, as seen in nearby Roxburgh Park. While it is hard to see the seat going to any non-Labor candidate, there will likely still be an expectation to deliver with regards to local jobs, infrastructure and services, key of which is likely to be rail electrification north of Craigieburn.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgraded bus route 511 and additional routes to catch up with new estate growth. 

* Further bus frequency and span upgrades in Craigieburn and Craigieburn West to reflect the area's favourable demographics, population density and high propensity to use buses. These could deliver maximum waits of 20 minutes 7 days versus 40 minutes currently.

* Service upgrades for V/Line trains serving stations between Donnybrook and Seymour. 

* Maximum waits on the Craigieburn line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Off-peak daytime Craigieburn train line frequencies improved from 20 to 10 minutes. 

* Rail electrification extended to Beveridge. Possibly in a package that connects Roxburgh Park to Upfield. 

  

Preston (ALP 20.7 - v GRN)              

A left-wing inner to middle suburban seat with the Liberal candidate receiving less than 20% of the primary vote last time. Much housing and settlement in the seat occurred post WWII, particularly portions away from the train and tram lines. Popular with migrants working in blue collar jobs. Roughly speaking the south is more gentrified with greater Green support while the north is more solidly Labor. Current MP is Robin Scott who was involved in the Adem Somyurek affair. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Off-peak daytime Mernda train line frequencies improved from 20 to 10 minutes. 

* High quality better than SmartBus style service on Bell St/Murray Rd between Coburg, Preston, Northland and Heidelberg running turn-up-and-go service 7 days per week over long operating hours. 

* Upgrades to the area's large number of buses running every 22 - 26 minutes to every 20 min to connect evenly with trains. 

* 7 day service and longer hours on bus routes 525 and 558. 

 

Pascoe Vale (ALP 22.1%)

A varied seat in Melbourne's middle-north. Includes socially conservative Catholic middle class areas to the west, a significant middle-eastern population to the north and north-east and more secular Anglo-based population in parts of the south (basically those wanting bigger houses or are priced out of Brunswick). Gentrification in the latter areas has put the seat on the radar of The Greens with them outpolling the Liberals last time. However 2018's result was notable for a strong challenge from a local independent who took many votes from both major parties. Thus Labor's position might not be as strong as the margin above may indicate. Current member is Lizzie Blandthorn, prominent in Labor's SDA faction. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Upfield and Craigieburn lines cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Craigieburn line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

 * Upfield line upgrade including an extension to Roxburgh Park and duplication of portions to allow improved reliability and a 10 minute frequency. 

 * High quality better than SmartBus style service on Bell St/Murray Rd between Coburg, Preston, Northland and Heidelberg running turn-up-and-go service 7 days per week over long operating hours. 

 

Greenvale (ALP 22.3%) 

Mostly lower income seat in Melbourne's outer north notable for its high Middle Eastern population, large households and low incomes, particularly in eastern portions such as Meadow Heights.  Area hit by 'hollowing out' of the economy, with reduced manufacturing and more insecure jobs. Roxburgh Park was established as a 'dream home' estate in the 1990s and has undergone significant degentrification since. Greenvale is the  seat's most affluent area with multi-garaged houses and blocks about double the size of elsewhere. Seat has undergone significant change due to growth in the area notably in Attwood and further north near Mickleham Rd. These areas have higher incomes than the older 1970s - 1990s suburbs to the east. Much of the seat is in (to be abolished) Yuroke currently represented by Ros Spence MP. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Improved bus network coverage and frequency. 

* Maximum waits on the Craigieburn line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Craigieburn line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

 

Dandenong (ALP 23.4%)         

A diverse low income south-eastern industrial seat that has ethnic and income characteristics more associated with Melbourne’s north and west. Vies with the newer Tarneit area as the centre of fast-growing Indian subcontinent communities in Melbourne. Before that it was home to many European migrants who came here to work in vehicle manufacturing and allied industries. Western part of seat has many with Asian or African heritage. While geograpically in Melbourne's south-east its demographic characteristics are more similar to areas in Melbourne's north and west. Centred on the Dandenong rail line its buses are often well-used but have had only minor service upgrades and network reform in the last 10 years.  Local MP is Gabrielle Williams. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* All bus routes in area upgraded to operate 7 days per week with extended hours. 

* Large scale bus network review with simplified more direct routes, longer operating hours and doubled or tripled frequency on main routes in residential areas and high patronage local routes. 

* Reimagined bus network for Dandenong South to connect jobs to people. 

  

Laverton (ALP 24.0%)

A new seat created from the carve-up of seats in Melbourne’s middle west due to the redistribution that saw the deletion of Altona and the creation of more growth area seats. Stretching from Sunshine to Skeleton Creek, its people live near the seat's western and eastern edges with none in the middle at Laverton North. This is the seat's job-rich industrial area with notoriously poor public transport. Neighbourhoods range from 1960s era low income areas like Laverton and Sunshine West to new estates around Truganina. The latter is bisected by the Regional Rail Link (Geelong line) but no new stations have been opened since service commenced in 2015.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Bus network revamp in Laverton North with new routes connecting to surrounding residential areas and stations including Tarneit and Williams Landing. 

* 7 day service on bus route 414 and potential rerouting via Altona Gate Shopping Centre to improve connectivity for Laverton residents. 

* Merging of bus routes 428 and 429 into a single route providing a 7 day service every 20 minutes over longer operating hours in Sunshine South and west. This would double frequency compared to now.  

* Construction of new station at Truganina on the Geelong line.

* Reconfiguration of Geelong line services to provide an all-day seven day two tier service with maximum waits of 20 minutes. 

  

Kororoit (ALP 24.5%)

Diverse western suburbs seat including a mix of established and growth areas. Older and lower income population in Deer Park North, with more working middle-income earners around Caroline Springs. The previously large gap between there and Melton is now fast filling with new estates either side of the Western Fwy. Area has few local jobs so a high proportion need to commute long distances. Current member is Marlene Kairouz who gained more than triple the primary vote of her Liberal opponent in 2018. However she lost party preselection over the Adem Somyurek affair so will not be recontesting (as Labor anyway). 2022's Labor candidate will be RTBU secretary Luba Grigorovitch, who has long had political ambitions.   

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Routes 420 and 460 to SmartBus services with longer hours, higher frequency and bus priority features. 

* Upgrade Routes 418 and 461 to operate longer hours with maximum waits of 20 minutes 7 days per week. 

 

Broadmeadows (ALP 25.2%)

A multicultural formerly manufacturing based seat containing some of Labor’s most loyal voters. Hit hard by the 1990s recession and tariff cuts resulting in large job losses and high unemployment. Newer jobs that have come along have typically been low paid and casual roles. The area remains with low labour force participation and contains some of the lowest household incomes in Melbourne. Long a migrant stronghold, Broadmeadows today is a strongly middle-eastern / Muslim seat. Previously represented by premier John Brumby its current member is Frank McGuire. The biggest threat to MPs in seats like Broadmeadows is not the electorate but party preselection. This has been the fate of Mr McGuire, with Labor opting to replace him with another candidate, possibly younger and with future senior ministerial potential.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Local bus network reform to enable a Coburg - Hadfield - Broadmeadows bus operating at least every 20 minutes. 

* Local bus reform to simplify buses in Dallas/Campbellfield, upgrade Route 532 from every 30 to every 20 min to mesh with trains and deliver 7 day service to residential area bus routes, most notably 531 & 538 in Campbellfield and 542 Oak Park.   

   

Mill Park (ALP 25.2%)

Includes 1980s development around Epping North and Mill Park, 2000s development around South Morang and new growth frontiers around Wollert. Popular with European and latterly Asian and middle eastern migrants and their children. Lower middle to middle class demographics with lower incomes at the Epping end. Very safe for Labor as Liberals are weak in the area and the seat is too old, too religious and too far north for secular inner-city Greens to hold much appeal. Locals remember to protracted battles to get the Epping line extended along an existing reservation a few kilometres to South Morang and then the longer distance to Mernda. Their success remains a template of how to succeed against sometimes indifferent governments. Further south the extension of the Route 86 tram has often been called for. The area received significant attention under the Cain government with various extensions in the 1980s. However the most recent occurred in 1995. Mill Park is currently represented by Lily D'Ambrosio MP.     

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Mernda line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

* New SmartBus style service along Epping Rd given the development, housing density and distance from other transport. 

* High quality east - west bus route from Epping Plaza to Greensborough via Childs Rd and Plenty Rd operating more frequent service and extended hours to replace complex Route 566 in area.

* Extension of Route 86 tram northwards to South Morang Station. It is likely that someone will advocate this during the campaign. 

* An additional branch from the Epping line at Lalor to Wollert may benefit the far western part of the seat. However there are potential issues with branching rail including potentially degraded frequency (or not implemented improvements) between Epping and Mernda. This may also come up during the campaign. 

  

Thomastown (ALP 27.4%)                  

Multicultural seat comprising postwar migrants and their offspring from southern Europe and more recently the middle east. Has two main regions - south and north. Southern areas around Thomastown have an ageing, low income demographic in 1960s-1970s houses and villas. Northern areas comprise recently built areas around Wollert with more younger families. Was pretty much Labor’s safest seat in the years when it was held by Bracks era transport minister Peter Batchelor and remains very safe today. With many having a manufacturing background, this is a working class constituency that has little time for the post-materialist Greens politics more prominent south of Bell St. Current member is Bronwyn Halfpenny.

 Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Mernda line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

* Some form of Wollert rapid transit providing frequent service with similar hours and frequencies to trains. An additional branch from the Epping line at Lalor to Wollert could benefit this seat. However there are potential issues with branching rail including potentially degraded frequency (or not implemented improvements) between Epping and Mernda. This may also come up during the campaign. 

* A direct and frequent Craigieburn - Wollert - Epping bus route to be introduced soon either as a precursor to Wollert rail or as a longer term bus rapid transit system.  

* Upgrade Route 559 to operate 7 days per week with longer hours. 

* Simplify and extend bus route 558 to operate to Campbellfield Shopping Centre

* Upgrade bus routes that are currently every 22 - 26 min to every 20 min to evenly connect with local trains (currently every 20 min). This to include routes such as 555 and 556. 

 

Footscray (ALP 28.7%)  

One of Melbourne's most multicultural seats with strong Asian and African influences around Footscray but a white young professional vibe around Yarraville attracted by lower house prices than east of the Yarra. Massively increasing housing density around Highpoint has outstripped fast, frequent and direct public transport connections with timetables hardly changing in years. Low income, low car ownership and high public transport usage around Footscray with the reverse at locations away from it. Footscray's station area has seen significant transformation with regional rail upgrades. Historically it has been surrounded by underused land parcels but some have seen some recent dense development. Opportunity exists for more of this as industry moves further out. Current Labor member is Katie Hall MP who will be recontesting. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Sunbury line (as far as Watergardens) cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Off-peak daytime Sunbury train line frequencies improved from 20 to 10 minutes as far as Watergardens. 

* New direct north-south Highpoint - Ashley St - Tottenham bus route to connect fast growing high density residential area near Highpoint to their nearest train. 

* Further upgrades to Route 82 tram frequency including 7 day 10 minute frequency. 

* Bus route 414 upgraded to operate 7 days with longer operating hours.  

 

Northcote (ALP 33.2% or 1.7% against Green)

A trendy tertiary educated inner suburban seat seen as a hot prospect for The Greens with Liberals sometimes battling to get double digit support. The Greens actually won the seat in a 2017 by-election in a contest marked by the absence of a Liberal candidate and a clutch of minor parties and independents. The by-election was due to the death of incumbent MP Labor's Fiona Richardson. However Northcote reverted to Labor in 2018 in an election marked by the return of a Liberal candidate and fewer independents. While Northcote is very safe from Labor's point of view as regards to it falling into Liberal hands, it is marginal with regards to it returning a Green member. While Greens are thought of as left-wing and more likely to support Labor than the Coalition there can be cases (especially on government accountability matters) where they may side with the opposition when Labor is in power. Current member is Kat Theophanous. 

 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda and Hustbridge (to Eltham) lines cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Mernda and Hurstbridge (to at least Greensborough) line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

* Route 508 upgraded to SmartBus with higher frequency and longer operating hours to provide an improved east-west connection. 

 

Conclusion

Even though these are (mostly) Melbourne's safest seats, this doesn't mean that the party holding them can take them for granted. Indeed seats like Pascoe Vale and Northcote are less safe than two party numbers might indicate. Also, as mentioned before, their voters count as much as any other seat for tight Legislative Council results. 

Have you read all items in this series? You will need to for today's item to make sense. If not see them here: 

How to win votes with public transport in 2022

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 1 Metropolitan overview

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 3 Less marginal seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 4 Safer seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 5 Safest seats (this one)

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrade by seat - Part 6 Summary

NOTE: This item may be updated nearer the 2022 state election if interesting facts about seats and candidates come to hand.