Can we bring forward some of the benefits of the Box Hill - Cheltenham Suburban Rail Loop?
We can. And for very little if we continue to be open to the idea of improving buses along its corridor.
The state government set the ball rolling when it funded modest upgrades for Route 733 in the 2022 state budget. This boosted frequencies on the busiest part of this route, notably between Box Hill and Clayton. This has been very well received by passengers with strong patronage growth since starting nearly two years ago.
Thanks to these improvements the 733's Box Hill - Monash section now gets weekday interpeak buses every 15 minutes, a halving of waits from the previous 30 minutes. Saturdays improved from 40 to 30 minutes while gaps between Sunday buses shortened from 60 to 40 minutes.
However weekend waits are still longer than what should be a premium bus route, particularly on Sundays. As a taste of what it could be, premium bus routes in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth typically run every 10-15 minutes on weekends with longer operating hours than our 733.
The state government set the ball rolling when it funded modest upgrades for Route 733 in the 2022 state budget. This boosted frequencies on the busiest part of this route, notably between Box Hill and Clayton. This has been very well received by passengers with strong patronage growth since starting nearly two years ago.
Thanks to these improvements the 733's Box Hill - Monash section now gets weekday interpeak buses every 15 minutes, a halving of waits from the previous 30 minutes. Saturdays improved from 40 to 30 minutes while gaps between Sunday buses shortened from 60 to 40 minutes.
However weekend waits are still longer than what should be a premium bus route, particularly on Sundays. As a taste of what it could be, premium bus routes in Sydney, Brisbane and Perth typically run every 10-15 minutes on weekends with longer operating hours than our 733.
Another issue with the timetable upgrade was that as the 15 minute weekday service finishes at Monash station. That's not as useful as it could be if this extended to Clayton Station. Clarinda; a substantial residential area with no local train station, also didn't get the frequency upgrades it deserves.
Part of the reason for this is that, good though they were, the budgeted upgrades were timetables only - not routes. There was no network reform that could have delivered 'greater good' network benefits. For example simpler routes, better train connections and increased 7 day frequencies. That's desirable to get the most service for the least money.
There's many good reasons to upgrade buses in many parts of Melbourne. But Route 733 has one other ace up its sleeve. Because it is the route most similar to the Suburban Rail Loop, strong usage of that strengthens the SRL's case.
And the state government really needs a confidence-boost for the SRL right now with some querying its capacity to fund, especially if federal sources fall short or costs exceed those envisaged. Any reduced confidence potentially undermines the third funding source - that of 'value capture' - if developers walk away.
Part of the reason for this is that, good though they were, the budgeted upgrades were timetables only - not routes. There was no network reform that could have delivered 'greater good' network benefits. For example simpler routes, better train connections and increased 7 day frequencies. That's desirable to get the most service for the least money.
There's many good reasons to upgrade buses in many parts of Melbourne. But Route 733 has one other ace up its sleeve. Because it is the route most similar to the Suburban Rail Loop, strong usage of that strengthens the SRL's case.
And the state government really needs a confidence-boost for the SRL right now with some querying its capacity to fund, especially if federal sources fall short or costs exceed those envisaged. Any reduced confidence potentially undermines the third funding source - that of 'value capture' - if developers walk away.
An extended upgraded Route 733
Next Wednesday marks two years since the successful first round of improvements to Route 733's frequency. So today let's talk about how a much needed second round might be done and funded.
If you, like Treasury, believe 'charity begins at home' in the sense that departments should look for internal savings before asking others for money, DTP could start with identifying potential offsetting savings in the existing network by reviewing the usage and coverage of local buses.
That includes Route 733 itself, especially its Clayton to Oakleigh section. Part of that overlaps the more frequent Route 703. Another part operates about 300-400 metres parallel to Warrigal Rd which is served by the frequent 903 orbital. Oakleigh itself is served by numerous buses to Box Hill and Monash. Splitting the 733 at Clayton gives scope to continue it south rather than west, hence permitting a Southland/Cheltenham connection.
Bus route 631 traces its history back to the acrimonious bus contracts dispute of the late 1980s. When the government lost the legal proceedings it started two long and duplicative bus routes across the eastern suburbs with Quinces as the operator. Route 634 was later merged into other routes but 631 remains today as a remnant of a previously longer route that once ran to Mitcham.
Few passengers from 631's southern half remain on the bus beyond Monash University, giving potential to join this with the 733 at Clayton. Helpful to such a join is that Route 733 south of Monash operates every 30 minutes interpeak weekdays, matching the current Route 631 interpeak frequency. On weekends the 631 operates every 40 min Saturdays and 60 min on Sundays, ie similar to the Route 733 before it got upgraded.
Route 704 is a quiet east-west route between Oakleigh, Clayton and Westall. It overlaps other routes in Oakleigh but offers some unique coverage in parts of Clayton. Service is every 30 minutes peak and 40 minutes off-peak (including weekends) which is relatively high for its usage. It retained its Oakleigh alignment on Burlington St despite being overlapped by the 742 and later (in 2006) the 900 SmartBus. This may generate opportunities to allow a potential southward Route 733 extension as mentioned above.
Existing network
The three existing routes discussed are mapped below.
If you, like Treasury, believe 'charity begins at home' in the sense that departments should look for internal savings before asking others for money, DTP could start with identifying potential offsetting savings in the existing network by reviewing the usage and coverage of local buses.
That includes Route 733 itself, especially its Clayton to Oakleigh section. Part of that overlaps the more frequent Route 703. Another part operates about 300-400 metres parallel to Warrigal Rd which is served by the frequent 903 orbital. Oakleigh itself is served by numerous buses to Box Hill and Monash. Splitting the 733 at Clayton gives scope to continue it south rather than west, hence permitting a Southland/Cheltenham connection.
Few passengers from 631's southern half remain on the bus beyond Monash University, giving potential to join this with the 733 at Clayton. Helpful to such a join is that Route 733 south of Monash operates every 30 minutes interpeak weekdays, matching the current Route 631 interpeak frequency. On weekends the 631 operates every 40 min Saturdays and 60 min on Sundays, ie similar to the Route 733 before it got upgraded.
Route 704 is a quiet east-west route between Oakleigh, Clayton and Westall. It overlaps other routes in Oakleigh but offers some unique coverage in parts of Clayton. Service is every 30 minutes peak and 40 minutes off-peak (including weekends) which is relatively high for its usage. It retained its Oakleigh alignment on Burlington St despite being overlapped by the 742 and later (in 2006) the 900 SmartBus. This may generate opportunities to allow a potential southward Route 733 extension as mentioned above.
Existing network
The three existing routes discussed are mapped below.
Potential revised network
The above suggestions lead to the network below. 733 becomes predominantly a north-south route while 704 and 631 are roughly west-east routes. All stops lost to the 631 get the 733 instead, sometimes with increased frequency. The 733's rerouting would remove stops from Cameron Av and Golf Rd, which as noted before are close to the 903 on Warrigal Rd. However Golf Links Av would gain the rerouted 704 as a replacement for 733.
The above suggestions lead to the network below. 733 becomes predominantly a north-south route while 704 and 631 are roughly west-east routes. All stops lost to the 631 get the 733 instead, sometimes with increased frequency. The 733's rerouting would remove stops from Cameron Av and Golf Rd, which as noted before are close to the 903 on Warrigal Rd. However Golf Links Av would gain the rerouted 704 as a replacement for 733.
Route 704 would remain a similar length to now (around 10km long). 631 drops from about 22 to 7 km while 733 has a net gain of 6 km to go from 23 to 29km. The three routes combined drop about 8km, from 54 to 46 km, with negligible coverage loss.
It is this reduction in route kilometres that could buy higher frequency without adding buses or driver hours. In this case my pick for the higher frequency would be (a) between Monash University and Clayton Station (retaining the current 4 buses per hour of 631 and 733 but more evenly spaced) and (b) between Clayton Station and Clarinda. Effectively this makes more of Route 733 a frequent service. And it could enable higher weekend frequencies. Overall there is a more even distribution of service as service kilometres move from Centre Rd to the currently underserved southern part of Clarinda (whose route 824 runs only hourly on Saturday afternoons and Sundays).
Does this network solve all the problems with buses in the area? No it does not. Thus I regard it as an interim rather than an ultimate. Existing issues this network does not tackle include:
a. Slow travel speed between Clayton and Southland/Cheltenham due to indirectness
b. Confusion on Bourke Rd where buses in opposing directions (incl 824) go to Clayton
c. Weak eastern terminus of 704 (Waverley Gardens would be better but this requires a Mulgrave/Springvale area review to simplify overlapping bus routes on Police Rd)
In addition the reformed Route 631 is quite short. It could be extended to Noble Park Station via Jacksons Rd. Again this would need a Mulgrave/Springvale area review to avoid duplication with 814.
Given the remaining issues is it still worth doing? That depends on the extent it can permit increased frequency, particularly on Route 733. That's covered next.
Potential Route 733 frequency gains
Below are some network frequency diagrams for bus routes 631, 704 and 733. Each of the thin lines represents one bus per hour. Thus two lines equals a 30 minute frequency and four lines a 15 minute frequency. A single thick line is a 40 minute frequency (ie 1.5 buses per hour). Lengths of routes (or route segments where frequencies vary) are multiplied by the number of buses per hour. This gives a rough idea of service resourcing per route.
Each diagram has a total on the bottom right. It doesn't mean a lot by itself but is useful when comparing options (which appear directly under the existing cases for each day of the week). Peak periods have higher frequencies and evenings lower frequencies so the use of interpeak frequencies should be a reasonable average. All three routes have roughly similar spans of hours, making comparisons based on frequencies alone reasonably fair.
Monday - Friday
Each diagram has a total on the bottom right. It doesn't mean a lot by itself but is useful when comparing options (which appear directly under the existing cases for each day of the week). Peak periods have higher frequencies and evenings lower frequencies so the use of interpeak frequencies should be a reasonable average. All three routes have roughly similar spans of hours, making comparisons based on frequencies alone reasonably fair.
Monday - Friday
Above is existing for the three routes discussed above. It does not include cases where there are overlaps involving other routes. If these were counted then you'd have 6 buses per hour on a part of Centre Rd (in conjunction with 703) and 5 buses per hour on part of Bourke Rd (with 824). However these will not be evenly spaced so maximum waits will be longer.
Below is a potential revised weekday interpeak pattern as mapped before (see 'Potential revised network'). The extended Route 733 delivers a 15 minute off-peak frequency from Box Hill to Clarinda, representing a large gain for the latter. Southland and Waverley Gardens retain their existing 30 minute frequencies, while 704's remains at every 40 minutes. After all that the total is 127km, ie slightly less than existing.
Below is a potential revised weekday interpeak pattern as mapped before (see 'Potential revised network'). The extended Route 733 delivers a 15 minute off-peak frequency from Box Hill to Clarinda, representing a large gain for the latter. Southland and Waverley Gardens retain their existing 30 minute frequencies, while 704's remains at every 40 minutes. After all that the total is 127km, ie slightly less than existing.
A potential variation is to reduce 704's interpeak frequency to hourly (due to low usage). That may free up service kilometres to (a) commence 631 from Clayton rather than Monash, (b) run Route 733 later at night and/or (c) redistribute service kilometres to weekends.
Saturday
Saturday
Above is existing for Saturday. Route 733 frequency drops from 15 to 30 min on the busiest section but remains at 30 minutes on the quieter Oakleigh - Clayton section. Both Routes 631 and 704 are every 40 min.
I will present two potential Saturday network options.
I will present two potential Saturday network options.
The first upgrades frequency to every 20 min between Box Hill, Mt Waverley, Monash, Clayton and Clarinda. Thus would be a major upgrade on a busy corridor that justifies it. Like on weekdays every second trip would operate to Southland/Cheltenham. The 40 minute frequency is not attractive but retains the current frequency of the existing 631. The total kilometres (94) is very similar to current (93.5). This is achieved by reducing Saturday on the quiet Route 704 from 40 to 60 minutes. Much of its catchment is near the higher frequency 703 or 903.
The second potential Saturday option retains 733's current 30 minute frequency but delivers a benefit for Clarinda, Southland and Cheltenham by having a consistent two buses per hour running on the entire route. It actually involves less service kilometres than now, although that gap can be narrowed by adding Route 733 evening trips, extending Route 631 to start at Clayton and/or boosting 704 frequency.
Overall the first option is a likely to benefit the largest number of passengers. It would also represent a service breakthrough in it being the first Box Hill and Monash area bus route to operate a consistent 20 minute frequency (or better) on Saturdays. 20 minute Saturday service already operates on routes elsewhere in Melbourne, including 465, 472, 893 that do not serve as many busy destinations as the upgraded 733 would. And, unlike the existing 30 minute frequency, it would harmonise with the 20 minute Saturday service on the Glen Waverley line.
Sunday
The existing Sunday service pattern (above) probably demonstrates the greatest mismatch between demand and service provided. The busy Route 733 drops to only every 40 min, ie the same frequency as the quiet Route 704. 631 becomes the lowest frequency of the lot at only hourly. A major rationale of the simplified network presented here is to enable a better Sunday service on the 733.
Both options below improve Route 733 Sunday service. The first is quite similar to the first Saturday option and involves more resourcing than now. But there's some big gains, notably the 20 minute frequency between Box Hill and Clarinda. Southland/Cheltenham would get a smaller improvement, going from every 60 to every 40 minutes. It has the 631 remaining at every 60 minutes which would also be the 704's frequency.
Both options below improve Route 733 Sunday service. The first is quite similar to the first Saturday option and involves more resourcing than now. But there's some big gains, notably the 20 minute frequency between Box Hill and Clarinda. Southland/Cheltenham would get a smaller improvement, going from every 60 to every 40 minutes. It has the 631 remaining at every 60 minutes which would also be the 704's frequency.
Project sequencing
The successful already implemented 2023 service upgrade is effectively Stage 1 of this.
Stage 2 is what is described here. The opex would be somewhere between between negligible and low (even if you went for the 20 minute Sunday option). The capex is also minor as although there's changes to bus routes there are no new stops or termini.
Stage 3 would be a small network tidy up in the Clarinda area to make Route 733 more direct to Southland/Cheltenham. Concepts for that here and here. That's needed as travel times, even with the Stage 2 upgrade, are too slow on this portion. Speeding access to the Monash precinct from the Cheltenham area would strengthen the case for improved frequency over the whole route, not just Box Hill to Clarinda. This would entail both capital and operational spending but would bring legibility and connectivity benefits. Potential also exists to do this in tandem with abovementioned Springvale/Mulgrave network improvements.
Stage 4 would be further frequency uplifts, 24 hour weekend service, bus priority, upgraded shelters and passenger information to make it clearly a premium service. The gold standard version of this stage would be all week 5-10 min frequencies and limited stop expresses operating each day until late.
Conclusion
An upgraded 7 day Box Hill - Cheltenham bus is both possible and essential given the success of recent service upgrades.
The next logical step in this could be trivially cheap if assisted by modest network reform.
While no claims are made it of it being an 'ultimate' it could still represent the next step towards a genuinely premium SRL SmartBus.
The patronage success of the recent modest Route 733 upgrades should give added confidence that a further upgrade is a journey worth embarking on, especially given Stage 2's very low cost.
Especially as a tangible means for the government to build goodwill towards the Suburban Rail Loop by bringing forward some of its benefits.
Other Useful Network items are here
The next logical step in this could be trivially cheap if assisted by modest network reform.
While no claims are made it of it being an 'ultimate' it could still represent the next step towards a genuinely premium SRL SmartBus.
The patronage success of the recent modest Route 733 upgrades should give added confidence that a further upgrade is a journey worth embarking on, especially given Stage 2's very low cost.
Especially as a tangible means for the government to build goodwill towards the Suburban Rail Loop by bringing forward some of its benefits.
Other Useful Network items are here
1 comment:
It's an indictment on the Victorian attitude to buses that we need to talk about compromises with 40 min and hourly weekend frequencies to fund one 20 min corridor yet day 1 of SRL will almost certainly be a 10 min TUAG frequency.
All the north-south bus routes in the area (903, 767, 733, 703, 902 & 901) should be a minimum 20 min service on weekends, arguably 10 minutes for 902 & 903 based on current patronage.
To properly unlock savings of downgrading the 704 to hourly inter-peak & weekends, you'd want to get the round trip back to under 60 mins - otherwise the bus will be laying over for over 20 mins at either end. This would necessitate truncating the route as Oakleigh - Clayton.
A larger package of changes could see:
- 704 still run to Westall but via the 824 alignment south of the railway line (and maintaining the current 30 min peak / 40 min off-peak headway)
- 824 from Moorabbin operating east to Waverley Gardens via Centre Rd & Police Rd, incorporating parts of 631 & 704
- 824 from Keysborough re-routed to Monash Uni via M-City (replacing part of 631)
- Frequency upgrade for 813, becoming the sole Springvale - Waverley Gardens route
- Noble Park - Glen Waverley route via Jacksons Rd (part of 814), Waverley Gardens, Police Rd, Albany Dr (part of 848), Lum Rd (fix coverage gap in Wheelers Hill) & Waverley Rd
- 848 truncated as Dandenong - Waverley Gardens with 30 min all day frequency (after deletion of parallel 814)
- Reroute 885 to Monash SRL Station instead of Glen Waverley (maintaining a Monash Uni link from Police Rd area) & extend to Springvale South (over loose end of 814). Creates new Springvale - Monash Uni connection.
Straightening the 631 in Clarinda would create a coverage gap in parts of Heatherton given 821 was deleted. I have some ideas for this too:
- 705 rerouted to Clayton & potentially Monash Uni (faster access from outer-end of Frankston Line to Monash Medical Centre & Monash Uni)
- 704 extended from Westall to Springvale (over 705) giving Osborne Ave a full time bus route
- Reinstate 808 from Springvale to Southland, incorporating Springvale South section of 814 (this can through-route to 885 at Springvale)
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