TT #192: 7 day buses in Noble Park North for almost nothing?

Two months ago I asked what's next for improved buses in Greater Dandenong. The Fix800Bus campaign had just succeeded in winning budget funding for 7 day buses on Princes Hwy's Route 800 but six other Dandenong area routes remain on limited 6 day (or less) timetables with no funding committed for their improvement. 

Routes 802 and 804 looked next in line because of their high usage and connectivity to major destinations including Dandenong CBD, Dandenong Hospital, Monash University and Chadstone. Network simplification involving the related Route 862 could also make a 7 day upgrade involving them trivially cheap.

Route 814 - a very limited service

In third position was Route 814, which is mapped above. No one would travel on it from end to end. And most of it overlaps other routes (which do run 7 days). However Route 814 serves some busy destinations including Springvale, Waverley Gardens and Dandenong. It also has significant unique coverage on Jacksons Rd, Noble Park North as well as a lesser area in Springvale. Its timetable is limited, with hourly service between Monday and midday Saturday and nothing outside those times. 

If you were designing a local bus network you would never have a route like 814. Whether it's indirectness, a weak terminus, overlap or low frequency, it's a poster child for most things wrong with buses in Melbourne. Its alignment and schedule have lingered for decades with past network reviews being ignored. 

Despite that Route 814's patronage is above average, largely due to demographics with high social needs and a propensity to catch buses. Thus the argument to add even a basic 'minimum standards' 7 day service is strong since we know it will get reasonable use.

If the opportunity to upgrade an existing imperfect route to seven days exists then you'd take it without asking too many questions. Most of the 2006 - 2010 Bracks-Brumby government MOTC 7 day upgrades were like that and saw significant patronage increases. Area bus network reviews, in contrast, are less likely to happen but can deliver bigger gains over a wider area for a given annual service kilometres budget. 

A third way, short of a full network review, could be reforming just one to three routes, with a view to having all run seven days. In areas where multiple routes overlap that can buy a basic 7 day service to all neighbourhoods for much less than upgrading an existing unchanged route. Route 814, especially where it has unique but underserved catchment in the Noble Park North area along Jacksons Road, is a clear candidate. 

Unlike the 802/804/862 corridor, there is no one obvious reform that could simplify the more complex and less direct Route 814. Instead there are several approaches, each with pros and cons. I'll outline a few below, starting with a straight 7 day upgrade on the existing route as a reference.

No option uses more buses than now, though the cheaper ones won't work the fleet as hard over the week. The live bus hours are based on notional timetables prepared for each option versus existing service hours. 

Option 1: Unchanged Route 814 upgraded to 7 days

This leaves everything as is except for inserting extra evening and weekend trips in the hourly Route 814 timetable to deliver 7 day service until 9pm. 

Cost: +3500 live bus hours/year (for context that's about 10hrs/day, mostly weeknights & Sunday)
Pros: Simple timetable upgrade only / retains higher weekday frequency near Dandenong 
Cons: Dearer than other options / does not reform network

Option 2: Shorter Route 814 upgraded to 7 days

Shortens route by terminating at the area's nearest station at Noble Park instead of backtracking to Dandenong, forming a requested local link. Coverage of all but two stops on Oakwood Av is retained via Route 848 (which runs 7 days). The main trade-off is that removing the common 814/848 section reduces weekday service frequency to Dandenong. However areas near Princes Hwy will gain from the Route 800 7 day upgrade. Also as the new Route 814 is shorter a 7 day upgrade becomes cheaper. An hourly 7 day service until about 9pm is envisaged, meeting minimum service standards.  

Cost: +2200 live bus hours/year (ie cheaper than just upgrading existing route)
Pros: New feeder for Noble Park station, speeding many trips / gain for Springvale South / lower cost
Cons: Reduces frequency on portion currently shared with 848

Option 3: 813/814 through-routing

Concept seeks to reduce Route 814's overlap with other routes but deliver increased frequency in Noble Park North. Trips are operated as a through service with a number change at Springvale in conjunction with Route 813. The Noble Park station terminus from Option 2 is retained.

The map shows Route 814 deleted south and west of Springvale. However scope may exist to reroute 811 and/or 824 to retain service at most stops. Unlike Route 814 both these routes operate 7 days. The small section of Police Rd the new 814 misses retains adequate service from other routes including 631 and 848. Some single bus Springvale trips from Noble Park North are slowed by the bus operating via local Mulgrave streets (unless both ends of Hansworth Street can be joined). However, unlike now, the revised route offers a much faster trip via a change at Noble Park Station. 

Most notable about this network is its economy. This allows it to run cheaply if resources are tight, or frequently if the priority is to make full use of the existing fleet. Three service options could be as follows: 

* Bronze: Every 40 min weekday/60 min weekend (ie similar for 813, better for 814) 
* Silver: Every 30-33 min peak/40 min weekday/60 min weekend (better for both)
* Gold: Every 30-33 min peak/30 min weekday/30 min weekend/long hours (much better for both)
 

Cost: Bronze -400 / Silver +650 / Gold + 8200 live bus hours/year (excl any 811/824 increases)
Pros: Large frequency increases / simpler network / potentially very low cost
Cons: Reduces frequency on portion currently shared with 848 / Some Springvale trips slower

Option 4: Existing Route 813/extended Route 816

Another fairly economical network that permits some frequency increases. Retains current Route 813 between Dandenong and Waverley Gardens. The Noble Park North portion of Route 814 is covered by a northern extension of Route 816. This provides a new north-south Keysborough South - Parkmore - Noble Park - Waverley Gardens connection in an area currently without one. That's a significant gain as so many more local trips are possible with no or one change of buses rather than two. Issues with the Springvale South and Dandenong ends of the 814 remain as per the previous option.   

The 30 minute peak/40 minute interpeak weekday frequencies on both routes provide a better overall service than now. For example 813 gets lifted from every 40 to every 30 minutes during peaks while 816 and part of the current 814 go from every 60 to every 40 minutes interpeak. Weekend service remains at hourly on both 813 and 816 but the latter's extension north brings new 7 day and early evening service to Noble Park North.  

Cost: +2800 live bus hours/year (excluding any 811/824 increases)
Pros: Significant frequency increases / addresses 816's scheduling inefficiency / moderate cost
Cons: Reduces frequency on portion currently shared with 848 / may slow some Springvale trips

Option 5: 704/814 merger

The removal of level crossings should trigger a review of bus routes that could potentially benefit from fewer delays at boom gates. But in practice this almost never happens. One unreviewed example is the Route 704 bus from the busy station of Clayton terminates at the (much quieter) Westall Station (having been extended a short distance from the historic terminus at the former Volkswagen factory). Such a terminus leaves a section of busy Centre Rd without any bus. Meanwhile, a short distance to the east, the 814 overlaps many other routes to Waverley Gardens and then others on Springvale Rd. 

Despite a recent upgrade giving it more generous service levels than most Dandenong area local bus routes, the 704 is not a strong patronage performer. This could partly be attributed to its Oakleigh end overlapping other routes and a weak eastern terminus. 

Option 5 below merges the 704 and part of the 814 into a single Oakleigh to Noble Park route serving a lot of medium sized destinations. Most notable is a new direct connection to Clayton Station from Waverley Gardens (discussed in UN48 here). And, like some of the other options above, there is a new connection to Noble Park station. The route's 40 minute weekday/60 minute weekend service is somewhat lower than the existing 704 but better than the current 814, presenting a better match to patronage. 

While these are still not great frequencies, this option sets the network up for further reform. For example the direct portion of 814 east of Clayton station may make a good candidate for merging with 824 west of Clayton and a potential frequency increase in view of its directness. The loose end created for Keysborough's 824 could then operate to Oakleigh as a neighbourhood style route. 

Also notable from the map below is the alignment south rather than east of Oakleigh. This has a major benefit as it frees the very popular Route 733 from a back street coverage duty. Without this constraint the 733 could be extended further south to serve Clarinda, Southland and perhaps Sandringham as a Suburban Rail Loop precursor SmartBus. 

Cost: -270 live bus hours (excluding any 811/824 increased km required)
Pros: Fixes 'missing link' / potential to assist wider network reform / very low cost
Cons: Reduces frequency on portion currently shared with 848/requires change for Springvale 

Summary

Cost is sometimes used as an excuse to explain why we can't have better services like 7 day buses in more areas. However there are parts of Melbourne with overlapping bus routes that if simplified could allow services to be spread over all days of the week for basically no cost with certain trade-offs. 

I have presented a straight service upgrade option for Greater Dandenong's Route 814 and compared it with four options that deliver 7 day service to Route 814's catchment via different network reforms. No one of them is going to please everyone. However some open the door to higher frequencies, simpler networks and new direct connections that should have gains that outweigh the losses. 

There are no doubt more options and needs for further simplifications and upgrades not discussed here. Better than hourly service for Route 811 between Springvale and Dandenong along Heatherton Rd,  all week 20 minute frequencies for high performing routes like the 813 and improved connections to the Monash precinct all spring to mind. 

Comments are welcome and can be left below. 

* DANDENONG BUS ADVOCACY: The #Fix800Bus campaign is now #FixDandyBuses, reflecting the new focus on other routes since the Route 800 upgrade got funded. Follow us on Facebook here.

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