TT #174: Introducing the #Fix800Bus Alliance

Past transport portfolio antipathy to sustained bus network reform, optimisation and efficiency means that Melbourne has many cases where current timetables bear no relation to a route's existing or potential patronage. Hence we have back street buses running every 20 minutes on days where main road routes are every 1- 2 hours or not operating at all. Nowhere is this more apparent than on Princes Hwy between Chadstone, Oakleigh and Dandenong. Despite serving many jobs, education and 7 day shopping destinations its Route 800 bus runs to a cut-down timetable unchanged for 30 years. 

Background

800's last significant change was a service cut in 1990/1991. This was when 'austerity timetables' were introduced on bus routes all across Melbourne. These cuts typically removed all service after 7pm weekdays, on Sundays (when this existed) and many if not all afternoon Saturday trips (which were introduced a few years prior when we got Saturday afternoon trading). In addition peak frequencies on many routes fell from 15-20 min to a much less usable 30 minutes. Their effect was to make buses the transport of last resort for Melburnians, with after-effects continuing today.  

Fortunately many cuts got reversed (and better) when 'Meeting Our Transport Challenges' upgrades were introduced from 2006. These introduced minimum service standards of at least one bus per hour until 9pm seven days per week. Not the sort of stuff that wins people from their cars but at least it was a basic service safety net that didn't before exist. At least 100 routes got 7 day upgrades between 2006 and 2010. This contributed to a significant uplift in patronage as people could take buses at times they previously couldn't, notably on weekends. 

Unfortunately the minimum standards roll-out was never completed. There remain about 50 residential area bus services without Sunday service. Public holiday travel is also confusing. Overlooked routes are concentrated in parts of Melbourne's north, a large swathe of the outer east between Knox and Lilydale and the south-east around Dandenong and Frankston. 

The busiest and most high profile of these overlooked routes is the 800 on Princes Hwy. It serves some of the largest shopping centres, transport hubs and employment areas in Melbourne's south-east. For instance shopping at Chadstone, Oakleigh and Dandenong and jobs along the highway. Also Route 800 is walkable from Monash University, Clayton. Plus there are low-income residential areas in Noble Park North and Dandenong for which the 800 bus is their only nearby public transport. 800 is also one of only two bus routes that serves the massive high-rise M-City development on Blackburn Rd (pictured above). 

The 800's strong case

The current state government has a record of feeding infrastructure while starving service. But even the crumbs that service received have not always gone to the routes that most deserve it on broad patronage potential and social equity grounds. Route 800 is the biggest casualty of this resource misallocation because on all objective criteria it sits at the top of the pack for upgrades. Instead no less than 8 successive transport ministers have been unable to get even a single extra trip added to its timetable.   

Exactly how does the 800 bus stand out? The 800 is like a one-legged runner that nevertheless finds itself in the leading group at the finish line. Despite being hobbled by 6 day service and short operating hours, it is Melbourne's 40th busiest bus route in terms of absolute boarding numbers (over 500 000 per year - data here). Every single bus route above it (except two special university shuttles) operates seven days. 

Standardise for route length with a proper productivity measure like boardings per service hour and the 800 performs well. In 2018 it enjoyed 40% more on weekdays and double on Saturdays compared to the average productivity for bus routes in Melbourne (25 and 19 boardings per bus service hour respectively). 

Of course we don't know how productive the 800 would be on a Sunday because it doesn't run then. But we can make a good guess. This is because if a bus route is productive on Saturday it will almost certainly be productive on Sunday. I graphed it here and it's close to a 1:1 relationship. Routes that serve big shopping centres and/or the Monash precinct rated amongst the top performers. Since 800 does both you can pretty much guarantee that Route 800 will enjoy strong usage if given a good 7 day service.

Comparable main road bus routes in other parts of Melbourne include 170 420 and 907. These all have service every 15-20 minutes or better all 7 days of the week. The same applies for Route 893 between Dandenong and Cranbourne, serving another part of Princes Hwy. All four offer a template for the 800. With buses only every 2 hours on Saturday afternoons, with the last departure from Chadstone before 4pm, and no Sunday service, the 800 is short-changed in comparison. 

Fixing 800 is good politics

There some interesting political twists too.  Route 800 runs between the safe Labor seats of Oakleigh, Mulgrave and Dandenong. It passes the premier's electorate office in Noble Park North. The low-income demographics of the surrounding Harrisfield neighbourhood used to be trusted to reliably vote Labor rain hail or shine but loyalty is loosening with large drops in their primary vote recorded in the 2022 federal election. If the local state member, who has the power to fund and improve local services (like the neglected 800 bus) does not do so, why should locals retain their support? Discussed more below:

 

Seats like Mulgrave and Dandenong need to become more marginal so that they are no longer subject to the 'safe seat syndrome' with no or substandard services while other areas get what they strictly don't really need. To take some non-transport examples, residents of the City of Melton have just two full-service public libraries for its over 150 000 people, with provision per capita way below other areas. Meanwhile, marginal Frankston line seats have all of a sudden got new life-saving clubs in the last few years, not to mention level crossing removals and new freeways.

Widening inequalities mean that locals in 'safe' taken-for-granted seats need to start demanding what is rightfully theirs through protest, advocacy and the ballot box. Which is all happening. 

Some (undoubtedly comfortably off) big policy thinkers look down at petty community parochialism. And it's got a bad rap lately with highly publicised 'sports rorts' or 'car park rorts' affairs. 

Bus services in historically overlooked areas could not be more different. Unlike station car parks in dense areas, improving the 800 bus is no boondoggle but rather a redressing of a past wrong and an essential for today given new and proposed development. Not only that but it (a) stacks up on all objective data including actual patronage and social need, and (b) is cheap to fix with just $1 - 1.5m per year worth of bus service hours enough to deliver a good upgrade. 

7 day upgrades for other Greater Dandenong buses 

Route 800 isn't an isolated example around here. While some part of Melbourne now have all their bus routes running 7 days, Greater Dandenong substantially missed out on the 2006 upgrades and has fallen further behind since. Hence, along with 800, there remain routes like 802, 804, 814, 844, 857 and 885 with 6 and sometimes only 5 or 5.5 days per week service.

Again all data strongly supports a high priority for 7 day upgrades; apart from the partly industrial and semi-rural 857, all have boardings/km patronage productivity about 40 to 100% above average for Melbourne bus routes. Even the 857 is close to average on weekdays while Saturday usage is weak because its short three-hour span makes return trips difficult. 

Governments need community pressure

"The government will fix it". "Surely they keep track of patronage". "There is no Sunday service because there is no demand". "Planning is data-driven". You might hear comments like these when talking about buses.

There is a blind faith that "they" (eg an active Department of Transport that continually reviews bus service levels according to community needs) will sort it out. You just need to study Route 800's 30 year timetable stasis while its surrounds built high-rise and traded 7 days, to show that's a false hope. 

Unlike higher profile infrastructure project bodies, the DoT comes across as an institutionally unconfident weakling that has all the data but needs assistance and direction to turn it into improvements that benefit the community. If this wasn't so how else can one explain that it can be quicker to remove a level crossing than upgrade a bus service? 

DoT however will act if there is a directive from government. That in turn requires political pressure from the community. Never is the opportunity greatest than right now, with a state election in barely a month, a large crop of relatively unknown candidates (due to retirements and factional issues) and restless voters in traditionally safe seats.  

2018's 788 bus campaign provides some encouragement. That year's election campaign was dominated by massive transport infrastructure promises. But it was particularly arid for bus services with nothing concrete from either Labor nor Coalition sides. However local interest got Route 788 (the southern Mornington Peninsula's only 7-day bus service) on the political agenda with advocacy from council. This proved effective with bus service improvements introduced in two stages. 2018 debate below. 

One can also take heart from there being an anarchic transport policy environment with no overall transport plan (according to the state auditor-general) and the abovementioned weakness of the Department of Transport leaving space for 'policy entrepreneurialism'.

Harder financial heads within the government may be thinking that with spiralling costs, labour shortages and rising interest rates, 'Big Build' transport infrastructure suddenly doesn't look as affordable as it did 4 to 8 years ago. 

While they might have been wary of increases to recurrent spending (such as what service boosts require) there are also strong economic and political arguments in favour of 'sweating the assets' to realise benefits from years of disruptions.

A strong pro-service plan for the suburbs could just be what the government needs to gently shift the political agenda away from one dependent on borrowing tens of billions for new infrastructure while delivering a 'good transport' rebuttal to the Coalition's 'cheap transport' $2 fares proposal. The latter, while nice for tram-crossed 'Teal' seats, doesn't help suburbanites who still need $24 taxi rides because buses like the Route 800 have unusably poor operating hours and frequency.

The objective data stacks up for a boost to Route 800 bus. As does the politics and economics.

Over to you!

All it now needs is the community. The idea, is like what was done on the Mornington Peninsula, to build a broad consensus in favour of a Route 800 service boost. You want candidates to hear from the community that 7 day improvements for Dandenong area bus routes like 800 are important. Not only that but fixing it would deliver substantial community benefits, address decades of service neglect and be very affordable at only a few million per year.

This is where you come in. To learn more about #Fix800Bus jump onto Facebook and like or follow the page at:  https://www.facebook.com/Fix800Bus  The contact email is fix800bus@internode.on.net . 

Other Timetable Tuesday items here