Some shutdowns are due to necessary rail maintenance. Some is due to rail upgrades including extensive testing of new train and signal systems. Others are due to more road-based projects like level crossing removals and freeway construction like the North-East Link project.
Some rail old-timers tell me that calling in the buses is nearer to being the first rather than the last resort option these days. Although it is probably also true that much of their career was spent during times when patronage was stagnant and we weren't building much. Also Melbourne is not alone when it comes to extensive closures. Auckland's entire rail system is closed as we speak and will remain so for most of the rest of this month. And trains to Armadale in Perth won't be running for the better part of 18 months straight.
Politically Melbourne's rolling rail closures is regarded as a necessary cost of the Big Build in which we have disruption now for a better transport future. The extent to which we'll get much of latter was debated last week with media reports saying that the Metro Tunnel timetable may not fully deliver envisaged frequencies. This is something to watch as not getting the full benefits from major projects may affect their 'social licence' including concern over the cost and disruptions they involve.
Whether you think that the number of shutdowns is excessive relative to what was achieved under them or not, it is undeniable that their time burden is shouldered disproportionately. Rail travellers shoulder it more than car drivers. Non car-owning rail travellers on the weekends and evenings are hit hardest of all. This is because our train services are sparse at those times with us far trailing Sydney in this area. That means longer waits especially for time-critical trips where passengers might build in 30 to 60 minutes contingency over and above regular travel times. Connections when substitute buses are running also become chancy with it being basically impossible to time one's arrival to meet a feeder bus (which will be infrequent at best or have stopped running for the night at worst).
A much better future in terms of improved travel will be needed before Big Build benefits outweigh current delays for this group of passengers. Yet it's a future the government seems wont to postpone, with significant 7 day service frequency increases receding like mirages, rarely following infrastructure builds even if possible all along. Even the Bus Plan appears dead, with DTP proposals rarely winning budget funding.
A contempt for the time of evening and weekend travellers may pervade influential parts of the public service. From the dismissive tone of the reports they write it seems that weekday bureaucrats as senior as the state auditor-general regard evening and weekend travellers as expendable, despite those needing to work then typically lacking work from home options. This often diverse working class demographic is also the type that is becoming less 'rusted on', with the Werribee by-election having lessons for both major parties.
Not enough road space
Replacement buses can get stuck in traffic. They also contribute to it, though they are much more space efficient than the average single-occupant car. The slower a replacement bus the less effective and more expensive the operation is, with more buses and drivers (which you might not have) required to move a given number of people per hour. Travel and waiting times blow out, there is more variability and connectivity reliability suffers.
Solutions might include clearways for replacement buses on major roads and revised traffic light timings to assist buses to leave and enter station precincts. There may also be scope to relieve pressure in some areas by adding tram services and/or operating tangential replacement buses on quieter streets from other railway lines. However the latter may need additional trains scheduled to provide needed improved capacity and frequency. We have done some of that already. Maybe there's scope for more.
Not enough buses and drivers
This is particularly a problem for unplanned disruptions, especially at peak times. There is more latitude for planned disruptions due to works but even for those there can be pressure if many are happening at once.
There may also be a bias against scheduling too many buses as each one costs money. But one 45 seat bus is not the equivalent of a 6 car train. Even at night trains do need to be met by more than one bus, at least on major lines. That also provides a contingency if traffic congestion means that buses can't keep to timetables and connect properly with trains. This problem is exacerbated by low rail frequencies as if rail is infrequent replacement buses may be too. Or even if they are not then bus/rail connections may be poor.
Not enough trains scheduled
Simpler occupations
The simplest type of rail occupations keep the same train timetable but turn back the trains early, with buses operating the outer portion. For example Ringwood to Belgrave or Mordialloc to Frankston. Lack of trains won't be a problem for these as usage won't be higher (and could well be lower) than normal.
Under these circumstances the only reason you'd need to add more trains is to preserve span and frequency. If you skimp on that then you don't have a true rail substitute service.
Firstly span. As replacement buses are slower than trains earlier outbound and later inbound trains should be scheduled so that operating spans from the termini are no shorter than now. That is if the first weekday morning train from the city to Frankston arrives there at 5:50am (having left Flinders Street at 4:46am) and the replacement bus from Mordialloc takes 30 minutes longer (including transfer time) then an additional train departing the city at 4:16am should be scheduled. The same is true for inbound trains so that those getting the last bus from Frankston are not stranded at Mordialloc. In other words spans need to be no less than when the full train service was running for both early morning arrivals and late evening departures.
Secondly frequency. This is an issue during transition times, that is when frequency goes from low to high, or the reverse. It's particularly notable on weekend mornings (especially Sundays) when the timetable is transitioning from the hourly Night Network to something better. Again as buses are slower you need to have the replacement buses starting their higher frequency earlier than the trains. It is also desirable to have one or two more inbound trains scheduled to avoid the risk of extreme bus>train waits.
More complex occupations
More complex occupations can happen on the city side of junction stations like Caulfield and North Melbourne. Normally these junctions have multiple lines with high frequencies at almost all times.
Trains tend to be fullest at these locations. However some closures can suspend services on one (or multiple) lines through these junction stations, reducing capacity and (importantly) frequency by 50% or more. A common example would be where all trains from the busy Pakenham and Cranbourne lines terminate at Caulfield with passengers expected to change (via a non-DDA compliant underpass) to trains on the generally quieter Frankston line. That can cause overcrowding if additional trains on the lines that are still running are not put on (which they often are in this case).
There are instances where unharmonised timetables can create connection complexity. In the above example, Sunday morning trains from Cranbourne/Pakenham are every 30 minutes versus every 20 minutes for trains from Frankston. That can create uneven connections with long waits unless extra trips are added. Variable connection times at an inaccessible station is a special concern for passengers with accessibility needs who might take longer to change platforms or even need assistance (petition to fix that here btw).
Trains that terminate can at least be timetabled with connections planned. Replacement buses are less predictable, with more potential for these to arrive early or late. And on the longer lines buses may have different express stopping patterns to cut travel times. However if they arrive at a station that only has infrequent trains then those time savings may be lost for passengers travelling onwards.
You would think that a station like North Melbourne wouldn't have these problems.
After all, on paper it looks highly served. No less than five Metro lines (Werribee, Williamstown, Sunbury, Craigieburn and Upfield) stop there.
You wouldn't think recourse to a timetable would be necessary to get a train from there into the city at any time trains are running.
But you'd be wrong.
Keep reading!
The weekend before last at North Melbourne
As happens on many Spring/Summer/Autumn weekends there were major events in the city. Often with early starts they attract thousands of participants, spectators and, most importantly, workers to make it all happen.
It's pretty much impossible to schedule a weekend rail closure without affecting some major event. Or the millions of little humdrum events in Melburnians' lives, some of which involve train travel.
The weekend before last closed the busiest lines from the west to perform what insiders call a 'heart transplant'. That included replacing the entire signalling interlocking system at Franklin St between North Melbourne and Southern Cross.
That Sunday, April 6, also had Run for the Kids, which in 2024 attracted 25000 participants.
Extra trains
Hence extra trains were put on to supplement Melbourne's notoriously sparse Sunday morning timetable. Two trips per operating line were typically added. This was a flat number, regardless of whether the line already had a relatively frequent service (eg Frankston), an infrequent service (eg Mernda) or was quieter than average (eg Alamein).
Replacement busing
Note I said operating line. Werribee and Sunbury lines, though busy, were conspicuously absent. That's because they had no trains. Instead it was replacement buses all weekend, as noted below.
If all that sounds complicated here's a schematic below. Click for a clearer view.
The North Melbourne problem
Let's give everyone the benefit of the doubt and assume perfect timed train > bus connections at Sunshine and Newport.
The complexity comes when buses arrive at the North Melbourne end. This is because with half the lines knocked out (including the more frequent Werribee/Williamstown service), there are big gaps between trips in to the city. The only trains running are from Upfield and Craigieburn, both of which are infrequent on Sunday mornings.
Consequently North Melbourne loses its normal turn-up-and-go service. Which poses problems for those arriving via replacement buses (which, if express and stopping, will be at varied times).
Do the extra Craigieburn and Upfield line trains put on for Run for the Kids help? They do but there are still large gaps. Because they cheaped out by adding 2 and not 3 trains per line there remain 40 minute gaps on both. This false economy prevented a more consistent 20 minute service on each line (which could have run in a 2 hour block).
Not only that but the additions gave North Melbourne 10 trains (unevenly spaced and with different CBD destinations) in a 2 hour block. That is less than the 15 trains per 2 hour block that run under the regular timetable (being Upfield, Craigieburn, Sunbury 3 each plus Werribee/Williamstown on 6).
The consequence of this is a lumpy timetable at North Melbourne with gaps of up to 25 minutes (around 8am) and as long as 46 minutes around 6am. These are unsuitable for a replacement bus (whose timetable is constrained by infrequent arriving trains, notably at Sunshine) to reliably connect to. More details on that are below.
Swing seats vs safe seats - guess which got more trains!
On the other side of Melbourne precedent does exist for running extra trips on operating lines when other lines through a junction are closed.
An example, also from April 6, was at Caulfield where extra Frankston line trains were run to and from Moorabbin to partly compensate for the Pakenham and Cranbourne line trains terminating there. Like North Melbourne, big numbers will be boarding trains to the city. The only difference is they're coming off trains that are terminating there, rather than buses. That timetable may still have had problems for early participants. But there was at least acknowledgement that you could add extra frequency on a running line to assist capacity from the junction station - something that Craigieburn and Upfield largely missed out on.
We'll have the Metro Tunnel running for a start. This should mean better service between at least Sunbury and Dandenong. So that's two lines. These improvements will help even when bus replacements are needed because the starting point when these are scheduled are that they at least match train frequencies.
As for the others, that depends on whether the Metro Tunnel timetable has wider benefits for related lines like Sandringham, Craigieburn and Upfield. The Age online for 9/4/2025 (printed edition 10/4/2025) reported on post-Metro Tunnel services, including off-peak frequencies and the risk they might not get all envisaged frequency improvements.
