UN 194: What has Victoria's Bus Plan done for Melbourne's west and north?

State Labor is reeling from big swings against them in the previously safe seat of Werribee in Saturday's by-election.

Ministers publicly defend the government's record in the west but the average resident, either stuck 40 minutes in traffic or having about that long between buses, often begs to differ. So does pollster Kos Samaras who said that Labor's strategy was focusing on marginals at the expense of safe seats. 

The Liberal opposition was not as strong an alternative as it could have been. It was late in selecting a candidate, didn't have specific policies on public transport and avoided a public forum on the topic. Matthew Guy, its shadow public transport minister, represents an eastern suburbs seat with the best bus service in Melbourne. He has yet to demonstrate that his party is genuinely engaged on suburban public transport issues and has a will to win in this policy area (like it did in 2010). Less than a quarter of the 17% who abandoned Labor in Werribee directly voted Liberal.

Instead most of the swing went to independents and smaller parties notably Paul Hopper independent, Greens, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists (who, unlike the majors, attended last Wednesday's bus forum). With less than 60% voting for either the two major parties, Werribee is now a marginal seat with no victor yet declared at the time of writing. 

Political context

Similar demographic and political dynamics to Werribee exist in fast-growing ethnoburbs that now ring Melbourne to its west, north and outer south-east (which I won't cover today). While not right at the bottom of the income scale, high rent, mortgage, family and car ownership expenses have made cost of living a hot issue in these areas.

There's also concerns over crime and having transport that works. In these areas 30 to 40 minutes often represents not a total travel time but how long it takes to just get onto the freeway or the gap between buses. People aren't always clear on solutions but they do know if something's not working for them. Such sentiment can endanger long-term governments not seen to be sufficiently responsive, even if oppositions are uninspiring. 

Government's Bus Plan record

Then DTP Secretary Paul Younis, cannot be faulted for his loyalty to the government. As I pointed out at the time he presented in a way that overstated the government's achievements on buses, especially in written answers to questions on notice at PAEC last year. That was done by (a) counting even minor bus stop moves at rebuilt stations as reforms, (b) counting routes that have been deleted as reforms and (c) including typically one trip each way school bus services to give an inflated impression of Bus Plan activity. Take these out and the number of routes reformed shrink by about two-thirds. 

For context, Melbourne has about 350 bus routes. Victoria's Bus Plan came out in 2021 (1340 days ago). Most of the changes made were not large and, with no 2023 or 2024 state budget funding, the northern, north-eastern and Mildura bus reviews that could have implemented more far-reaching reform have effectively stalled. Not even the promised Bus Reform Implementation Plan is known to have been produced. Thus by any fair account the Bus Plan cannot be considered transformative although some good things have happened under it as listed here. 

Where were the Bus Plan initiatives? 

I divided the remaining 57 metropolitan non-school bus routes that had some form of reform (which could include trips added, extension or even deletion - since DTP figures counted those) by geographical area. Roughly one-third were in Melbourne's west and north, one-quarter in inner suburbs and the remaining five-twelfths in the east and south-east.  

The eight examples in the west included: 
- Merging of two routes in Maddingley (Bacchus Marsh) 
- Ongoing funding for GAIC-funded routes 152 and 182 in Tarneit
- New route 475 between Sunbury and Diggers Rest
- New Tarneit North FlexiRide
- Added trips on Route 215 between Highpoint and Caroline Springs
- New Melton South FlexiRide

The ten examples in the north included: 
- New route 501 Craigieburn - Donnybrook shuttle
- Major Craigieburn area frequency upgrades on routes 390, 525, 528, 529, 533 and 537
- New route 390 between Craigieburn and Mernda
- Route 538 made more direct with Saturday afternoon service added
- Improved frequency on Route 546 between Parkville and Heidelberg

The majority involved new routes in fringe areas, ie coverage extensions to 'catch up' with growth.

The main exception, which did involve genuine network reform and a substantial frequency uplift involved the local network in Craigieburn (where routes were upgraded to run every 20 min interpeak weekdays with some longer operating hours). Had these upgrades extended to weekend frequencies and similar scale upgrades done in (say) six or seven clusters across Melbourne then the Bus Plan's achievements could be widely celebrated rather than dismissed. 

The Route 546 boost is also notable, bringing 7 day service to the paper mill apartments at Alphington, which previously lacked it. It was bundled with upgrades for Route 505 (which I classified as Melbourne inner) that will feed the Metro Tunnel station at Parkville. 

Like the tally DTP supplied to PAEC, the above numbers do not include the routes that were part of the 2021 Night Network reform that saw some regular routes upgraded to operate 24 hours on weekends. Neither do they include some later measures listed here or some to start initiatives funded under GAIC (though note this is only a temporary funding stream with tight conditions that limit network reform). I also have queries about DTP's counting methods (eg counting deleted routes as being reformed and the double counting involving the Clarinda 631/821 changes) so the numbers here are rubbery and should be treated as a guide only.   

Trains and trams

This item is about buses but let's say a little about train and tram upgrades too.

The main rail service development for the west and north has been December's upgrade of the Geelong line from every 40 to every 20 minutes on weekends. This has benefited busy stations like Tarneit and Wyndham Vale. Last year also saw the inner west gain from the Route 82 tram getting extra evening and Sunday morning trips.

The main prospects in the future for the west are (i) what will happen on the Sunbury line when the Metro Tunnel commences service later this year and (ii) the delivery of Labor's 2022 promise to boost Melton trains from every 60 min to a still inadequate every 40 minutes on weekends.

The north has seen basically nothing for service levels with multi-decade old 30 to 40 minute gaps between trains in the evenings and on Sunday mornings remaining and no clarity of knock-on gains under the Metro Tunnel. Victorian governments have a habit of building infrastructure but not exploiting capacity gains when it opens; an example was the Werribee line having to wait until 2021 for modest service gains that should have been introduced in 2015 when Regional Rail Link started.  

Conclusion

Some welcome improvements have happened with buses in Melbourne's west and north as per the lists above. However they have been both slow and small. Especially relative to population growth and the need for efficient public transport alternatives given road traffic congestion. 

Especially in the north, prospects for a needed acceleration appear low. That's because the government has effectively shelved its promised bus network reviews for the north and north-east and potentially also all-week Metro Tunnel train frequency gains for Craigieburn and Upfield.

Convoluted DTP internal processes (that make bus upgrades take longer than removing a level crossing) make substantial bus improvements unlikely before about 2028. That includes lower budget 'quick wins' as DTP works slower than counterparts elsewhere even for smaller timetable only or minor route reforms.

Making service reform happen faster is something that the government could usefully be working with new Secretary Jeroen Weimar to overcome. Especially given that (a) even nominally safe seats that feel neglected could turn against them as the Werribee result shows, (b) improved and reformed public transport services that better use existing infrastructure change lives and save people money and (c) budget constraints are reducing the appetite for 'big build' projects.

The government's political survival in 2026 might just depend on the action it takes now on transport and other local services.  


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