Werribee/Williamstown/Sunbury
Footscray 4.0 <10/<10/<20
Sunshine 1.6 20/20/40
Williams Landing 1.2 20/20/20
Newport 1.1 <10/10/20
Watergardens 1.0 20/20/40
Craigieburn/Upfield
Essendon 1.2 20/20/40
Craigieburn 1.1 20/20/40
Mernda/Hurstbridge
-
Belgrave/Lilydale/Alamein/Glen Waverley
Box Hill 1.9 15/10/30
Glenferrie 1.7 15/10/30
Camberwell 1.6 15/10/30
Ringwood 1.3 15/10/30
Glen Waverley 1.3 15/20/30
Pakenham/Dandenong/Frankston/Sandringham
Caulfield 2.7 5/5/20
Dandenong 1.7 10/10/30
Springvale 1.2 10/10/30
Clayton 1.2 10/10/30
Oakleigh 1.3 10/10/30
Huntingdale 1.1 10/10/30
Frankston 1.0 10/10/20
CBD area (largely not discussed here)
Flinders St 18.8
Southern Cross 10.9
Melbourne Central 8.6
Parliament 4.7
Richmond 3.1
Flagstaff 2.8
South Yarra 2.8
North Melbourne 1.1
I'd query some numbers. Some stations, like Caulfield, Footscray and Newport, require exiting the fare paid area to change between some platforms. That may inflate numbers. There will also be variations such as changed travel patterns when buses are replacing trains. Still it does show that some lines have more super-busy stations than others.
The Clifton Hill group had no entries in this class, though it had a reasonable share of middling well-used stations like Reservoir, Heidelberg and more that exceeded 500 000 boardings pa. Significantly, nearly half (9/19) of the 1 million plus suburban stations will be served by the Metro Tunnel when that opens.
Busy stations with high maximum waits
Stations with 30 or 40 minute maximum waits are shaded. 4 out of the 19 busiest suburban stations had a 40 minute maximum wait (between approx 6am and midnight, 7 days) while a further 10 had a 30 minute maximum wait.
That makes 14 out of 19 with 30 minute or more maximum waits. This can be attributed to past resourcing decisions which placed a higher priority on boosting service on the electorally critical Frankston line over the lines to Ringwood and Dandenong which had more busier stations.
Footscray and Caulfield, by virtue of being on multiple lines, had the shortest waits. However even here intervals are irregular as lines through them operate at frequencies unharmonised with one another (with a mix of 20, 30 and/or 40 minutes common evenings and/or Sunday mornings). 2012's Network Development Plan - Metropolitan Rail would have had this fixed by now if service reform (most of which didn't need to wait for the Metro Tunnel) had been accorded a higher priority.
The silver lining is that the timetables associated with the Metro Tunnel offer a great opportunity to catch up on what has been almost a lost decade in metropolitan rail service improvement. Let's now look at some exciting service upgrades which could be ahead.
Effect of 2025 Metro Tunnel associated timetables
Seven of the shaded low service but busy stations will be served by Metro Tunnel services. These include Watergardens, Sunshine, Huntingdale, Oakleigh, Clayton, Springvale and Dandenong.
If well-scheduled the 2025 Metro Tunnel timetable will cut maximum waits at these stations from their current 30 or 40 minutes. In addition two other stations (Footscray and Caulfield) that already have frequent service will gain further. As mentioned before that means that nearly half of the busiest 19 suburban stations could directly benefit from the Metro Tunnel.
Right now we can only guess the extent of the Metro Tunnel's benefit as its timetable (or even service specification) isn't public yet. But I would expect that planning would be guided by a. 2012 Network Development Plan - Metropolitan Rail, b. 2016 Business Case and c. recent rail planning practice, notably the 2021 Caulfield and cross-city group timetable revamp.
This has informed the hypothetical frequency plan below.
I would not expect much use of the bare-bones A pattern, except possibly early Sunday morning. You'd pick C if core frequency, including relieving trams to enable a reconfigured network, was a priority. B, the middle option, gives a turn-up-and-go service for medium to longish trips, while offering excellent legibility and one-seat rides.
A and B are poor for asset utilisation given Metro Tunnel's construction cost. Still, getting something like B for most off-peak periods (including weekends and evenings) with A applying early weekend mornings would still represent a large uplift in service. Hence I will assume this is about what we get.
With that sorted we can now discuss the other busy stations and their prospects for better service.
Essendon and Craigieburn are the two remaining busy stations with 40 minute maximum waits not on the Metro Tunnel. The Craigieburn Line could have had boosted off-peak services (including closing the dreaded 40 min Sunday morning gaps) at any time since the line opened in 2007 but never did. However the 2016 Metro Tunnel business case proposes a halving of Craigieburn line waits to 10 minutes day/20 minutes nights and Sunday mornings (matching the current Frankston line pattern). Hence there is the possibility (though not a certainty) of next year's Metro Tunnel associated northern group timetable erasing current 30-40 minute waits. The case for this is compelling given the Craigieburn line's high usage and the low marginal cost of halving maximum waits.
The Upfield and Sandringham lines lack 1m plus stations but the Sandringham line in particular has good average usage per station with none really quiet. Like the Craigieburn line both have 40 minute maximum waits and are listed for improvements in the business case.
The abovementioned 2016 business case limits its scope to lines that are interdependent with the Metro Tunnel. Hence Table 2-2 in it does not list service levels for the Burnley (ie Belgrave/ Lilydale/ Alamein/ Glen Waverley) or Clifton Hill (ie Mernda and Hurstbridge) group lines. Thus I assume that no improvements are planned for these timetables. To be fair there were minor amendments made last year but none that made inroads into maximum waits or complex service patterns.
This, coupled with posters like those below, may give rise to a public expectation that timetables associated with the Metro Tunnel will have wide rather than narrow benefits, both in relation to the lines served and the span of hours.
The Burnley group is particularly relevant here because it contains five 'One Million Club' stations with 30 minute maximum waits. These are Glenferrie, Camberwell, Box Hill, Ringwood and Glen Waverley. Of Melbourne's train operating groups, Burnley also has the most need for a simpler greenfields timetable due to its unappetising combination of 30 minute maximum waits (including midday weekdays at outer stations) and complex peak stopping patterns.
Such a reformed schedule could apply the generally superior weekend daytime 10/20 min pattern to weekdays as well (for minimal cost) with this extended as late at night as possible. Doing both interpeak and evenings would give Belgrave, Lilydale and Ringwood service parity with Pakenham, Cranbourne and Dandenong, assuming the Reference Option (B) is chosen for Metro Tunnel services.
If this is not done then the Metro Tunnel risks becoming a project of envy rather than pride as Ringwood passengers find waits between their 30 minute evening trips are triple those enjoyed by Dandenong passengers. Such a 3:1 service disparity is also not justified on patronage and urban development grounds given the usage of and prospects for popular stations like Glenferrie and Box Hill (including the Suburban Rail Loop).
Conclusion
Success here requires a 'good service every day' style of timetable being developed with short maximum waits over a wide span all week (even Sunday mornings) being implemented. 10 minutes would obviously be ideal but even getting to 20 minute maximum waits would be a large improvement, reversing the 1978 evening cuts on some lines.
This job would be finished, and the benefits magnified, if similar principles were applied to the remaining busy suburban stations and others mostly on the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups, as is possible for low marginal cost.
3 comments:
Many of the super stations serve universities - Footscray, Glenferrie, Caulfield and Huntingdale. Monash’s Caulfield campus has 20,000 students, and if each attended each day for a 20 week academic year this would be 2m entries, which is half of the 1m students entries to Caulfield station. Of course not all students need to physically attend campus every day, some prefer to view lectures online, some walk from nearby accommodation, etc, but easier public transport access would tend to lead to more in person attendance. The Monash Clayton Campus has 50,000 students, so a possible 5m trips, which is the only 20% of the 1m station entries at Huntingdale. Hopefully the SRL boosts this up by improving access from the eastern suburbs and the Frankston line.
Some years ago Sydney mistakenly increased its service levels without sufficient drivers. This was not sustainable without an excessive requirement for drivers to do overtime. They had to cut back to a half hourly weekend timetable, recruit and train new drivers. After this they could increase frequency. There must also be physical limits on the number of trainees at any one time, such as the availability of simulators, train slots for training, and instructors. Once the new drivers become available the first operational requirement would be reducing the overtime of current drivers, before any increase in frequency can be contemplated. It must be a constant battle between the attrition of current drivers through the trauma of pedestrian strikes, and better pay in other parts of the rail industry such as Vline and freight. We need sufficient drivers first before we can improve frequency. Hopefully the current 100+ currently in training is followed by another large group.
@Anon - This is true. It's why I advocate a phased approach where you get rid of the worst waits first (which happen to also add the fewest extra hours). Eg getting from 40 to 30 min maximum waits requires a handful of extra trips per week, or about an 0.2% increase in trips per week. Getting from 30 to 20 min requires more but again it can be phased, for instance only certain lines upgraded and/or it done up to 10pm and then in its next stage done until midnight. 20 to 10 min interpeak adds 3 trains each way per hour upgrade so is more labour hours intensive but there's still potential for staging, for instance starting with widening shoulder peaks with 10 min service. The Ringwood timetables are particularly amenable to review with swings and roundabouts but overall shorter waits.
Post a Comment