By-election forum calls for better Werribee bus services

Amongst the audience it was a full house at last night's Werribee by-election transport forum put on by the Friends of the Earth's Sustainable Cities 'Better Buses' campaign. 

Credit to the following candidates or representatives who attended:

* Rifai A. Raheem - Victorian Greens

* Sue Munro - Victorian Socialists 

* Xavier Menta - Legalise Cannabis Party

* Joe Garra on behalf of Paul Hopper - Independent 

* Aijaz Moinuddin - Independent 

Liberal or Labor? They neither came nor sent a representative. More on that later. 

What happened

The evening started with accounts from three Werribee residents on the inconveniences of current public transport and how improvements could benefit them. A few of the differences that better bus coverage, frequency and operating hours could make include (i) money saved on uber/taxi fares or multiple car ownership, (ii) personal safety, especially at night and for women, and (iii) improved access to jobs and education. 

Then John Stone, long associated with the campaign, presented a vision for frequent and direct buses operating on a grid network. The vision is unchanged but the way of getting there has been revised since previous presentations. Instead of removing local routes and replacing them with flexible routes (which perform poorly on costs per passenger, capacity and reliability), the local bus network would largely be retained, with new frequent routes layered over the top.

My personal view on this? It's a good approach for Melton town, which has few direct bus routes. Whereas Wyndham and Brimbank already have direct and popular routes with frequency and operating hours their main shortcoming. My view is that while there are some cases of new routes being needed,  you're mostly better off just doubling (and in some cases quadrupling) frequencies on selected existing direct routes along the lines of the W-network. Such an approach would also likely be cheaper, simpler, faster to implement and less politically controversial. 

The overall cost of the Stone package for Melbourne's west has been estimated at $95m per year, along with $200m for one-off capital costs. For context, the latter is the cost of just one level crossing removal. 

Most of the evening was Q & A between the 5-candidate panel and the audience. There was general consensus on the need for buses that were more frequent, more reliable ran longer hours or simply existed (which isn't the case in areas like Mambourin). Some candidates also said they wanted fares cheap or free. 

Watch the recording of the whole session below.  

Major parties not there

As noted before, there was no one from the Liberal or Labor parties present. Labor is in government and currently holds Werribee. Opinion polls haven't been favourable for them lately, with crime, living costs, health and other local services widely cited issues.

Governments (regardless of party) tend to be reluctant to participate in community forums. Governments instead have other means to get 'good news' stories to people eg via direct mail and social media. Whereas a single government speaker would likely be outnumbered by non-government candidates at public forums and may not like forums being given added legitimacy by their presence. The government candidate may also not have anything new to promise, especially if it's a by-election that doesn't threaten the government's majority in the house. 

While the non-appearance of a government representative may make their side look contemptuous, they may have calculated that since the overwhelming majority of voters neither attend nor watch forums the risk from being an apology is less than any potential embarrassments suffered if attending.  

Less understandable are oppositions being 'no shows'. Especially the Liberals in 2025 Victoria. Relative demographic decline in their eastern heartland and growth in the north and west has made a reorientation essential for them to gain and retain office. The erosion of Labor's primary vote in the north and west potentially presents an opportunity for them. But power won't be attained if support for minor parties continues to rise and the Liberal primary vote remains weak. 

Oppositions often complain about governing parties receiving more donations and them able to exploit taxpayer-funded advertising to promoted implemented policies. Oppositions may not be happy about media being more likely to report a government announcement than something from them. MP coverage is also an issue; At the moment Melbourne's northern and western regions have close to 8 times as many Labor MPs than they do Liberal MPs. Lower MP coverage means fewer office resources too. Falling party membership has made the role of paid 'hacktorate officers' (doing party work in what is supposed to be their own time) increasingly important in maintaining the MP's standing in the community.  

To beat the odds opposition candidates need to be more opportunistic at showing up to things (even if it's only a handful of people) than government MPs. Being there shows they care - a good perception to have. Continued persistence will eventually lead to victory, especially if the government has made mistakes or is seen as tired. The goodwill with others, including independents whose preferences may be critical, is also valuable.  

Successful community campaigning

Once you've identified a genuine community need (in this case better transport services) and some solutions you need to build support amongst both the public and those with the ability to amplify, influence and implement what you want.

A bit like throwing a stone in a pond and it ripping out, but the ripples also becoming a wave that makes implementation irresistible. In our political system it is generally easy to win the support of independent and minor party candidates. Getting the bigger parties and eventually governments is harder but necessary. The chart shows how a successful campaign might progress. 

Below is the trajectory of some recent transport campaigns. The more widespread and public the support the more likely it will succeed. Hence the need for campaigns to win broad support. Even from parties that many in the campaign may oppose on other matters or which are generally considered weak or poorly led.  

The Werribee Better Buses campaign is currently at level 2. It has wide support from minor parties. Some opposition parties have supported it too in parliament. The next level is to get formal support from either (or preferably both) the Liberal and Labor parties. That will increase its chance of happening. 

Opposition support often vital

Governments are often (but not always) the last to come to the party. For example there was support from smaller and then opposition parties before the government came on board for both the successful Route 800 and the Mernda rail campaigns. When the government has a million demands for funding various projects some opposition support can give a good idea the push it needs to happen.  

Sometimes opposition members can advocate something between elections but their party doesn't take it up as a serious policy to the election. A good example was the Liberals advocacy for trains every 10 minutes all day in 2017. This was proposed by David Hodgett MP during his time as shadow public transport minister.

Neither his shadow successor (David Davis) nor the party leader (Matthew Guy) took it up so it was not adopted as a 2018 election policy. So, though it was a good idea, it died. Service (as opposed to infrastructure construction) has been a major weakness of the current state government but part of its sloth can be put down to a (then) policy-free opposition with no will to win in transport (the Coalition released their 2018 bus policy one day before the election with nothing of substance; their 2022 effort was better but still poorly promoted.  

How serious are the Liberals about the west? 

A similar concern applies today with buses in Werribee, just two days before the by-election. The ideal would have been a bus 'bidding war' between the Liberal and Labor parties. Under a more engaged leadership and shadow minister, the Liberals could have laid down a plan (need only be a one-pager with a few points) and been in a position to attend the forum with a positive message. That might have given them an edge over Labor (especially if the latter didn't attend). But even better would be if it provokes Labor into matching or beating it with their own agenda. 

For whatever reason neither of these have happened. Though there is still a chance of Labor coming good if the seat is made marginal or they lose. The Liberals themselves seem to have a west-east split. Western MLCs have raised the need for better buses in Legislative Council debates. They have also attended previous community forums on buses, such as last year at Williams Landing (which Labor also attended).

However vocal support for better buses in the west has not been forthcoming from their eastern-dominated leadership and shadow. The latter, apparently a rail fan, has not even said much about needed rail infrastructure and service upgrades in Werribee. Despite a media that would be listening more attentively than usual given the by-elections, giving a publicity benefit that oppositions sometimes claim don't often come their way. 

Oppositions routinely pledge to 'hold the government to account'. This opposition has not necessarily done this well on public transport - a key cost-of-living and local service issue that this government is vulnerable on, particularly in the west.  

The Coalition's policy passivity here (which might have also driven their decision not to attend last night) has been a disappointment. It represents a setback to the rebuilding they need to do to take seats from Labor in 2026. For them there is a risk that although Labor may continue to lose primary vote the majority of this drift could go to independents and minor parties, narrowing the Coalition's path to victory, and ensuring Labor holds on.

Regardless of who wins in 2026, a vigilant opposition means better government including improved accountability and faster delivery of the services people need including better buses. The 'test run' in this by-election indicates that the current opposition has a lot of trust winning to do between now and then.