Smaller operators to exit the industry include Ryans and Panorama. Sensing the trend towards industry consolidation, some smaller operators sold to larger companies before the contracts were awarded. For example Moonee Valley routes 503 and 506 going to Dysons and Moreland's 510 and 512 going to Kinetic. Also it is understood that CDC have a joint venture arrangement with Kastoria/Broadmeadows in the north.
There will be some reshuffling of routes between operators. Most notable is that some inner north and east routes will go from Dysons to Kinetic. The general aim appears to be to cluster contract packages by logical geographical area as opposed to historic family operations, as has been the case up to now.
If done well this grouping has potential to minimise dead running and facilitate network reform. On the latter, management sometimes needs reminding that it is patronage-boosting service reform not electrification (regardless of its merits for other reasons) that offers the greatest direct benefits for passengers. Good service reform is also essential to increasing bus occupancy and thus driving down emissions per trip (regardless of whether the bus is diesel or electric). More on opportunities for that later.
Electric buses are different
You can't just plonk an electric bus on a diesel bus daily run sheet and expect it to work. Whereas a diesel bus can run all day without refuelling, an electric bus needs a midday siesta to recharge. And their performance can lessen when it's too hot, too cold or too windy.
Not only do bus depots need to be reconfigured (and in some cases expanded) to include the charging infrastructure but schedules and driver rosters need to be rewritten to accommodate midday recharging. That may involve extra dead running, which risks less bus and driver hours spent in revenue service. However there may be scope to mitigate this, including considering innovations like satellite charging facilities and potential for bus operator revenue by sharing depot charging facilities with ecar owners during quiet times.
Those wishing to learn more about our ZEB transition are encouraged to read presenter slides from BusVic's Transitioning to ZEB Summit held in July 2024.
If you're having to rewrite bus schedules you might as well review timetables and service levels as well, which presents an opportunity since basic service levels on many routes haven't been touched for 15-30 years. Benefits can be maximised if route structures are made more efficient, eg through careful amalgamations, splitting or overlap reductions.
Structural issues with Melbourne's bus network
The big picture of Melbourne's public transport is that trains and trams provide radial transport towards the CBD while buses are for everything else. The long-term decline and then stagnation in its modal share is because the public transport network has not adapted sufficiently for increasingly important orbital type trips. Buses are the obvious mode for this function, though this is contingent on attention to network planning and service levels. If this round of bus network refranchising doesn't lead to an addressing of long-term network issues that hold patronage back then it will have been futile.
The diagram below shows the approximate state of play for circumferential public transport in Melbourne.
The big picture of Melbourne's public transport is that trains and trams provide radial transport towards the CBD while buses are for everything else. The long-term decline and then stagnation in its modal share is because the public transport network has not adapted sufficiently for increasingly important orbital type trips. Buses are the obvious mode for this function, though this is contingent on attention to network planning and service levels. If this round of bus network refranchising doesn't lead to an addressing of long-term network issues that hold patronage back then it will have been futile.
The diagram below shows the approximate state of play for circumferential public transport in Melbourne.
The green lines are all SmartBus orbitals (901, 902, 903), introduced about 15 years ago. Serving suburbs approximately 10 to 30km from the CBD, they are more prevalent in the east than the west. Their operating hours are long but weekend frequencies drop to every 30 minutes, not evenly meshing with trains typically every 20 or even, on Sunday mornings, 40 minutes. In some cases, especially in the west and north, SmartBus orbitals are inefficiently overlapped by other routes, such as along Murray Rd Preston, Buckley St Essendon and Millers Rd Altona North with the result being two or three infrequent routes on weekends rather than a simpler 7 day frequent service.
The orange links are low frequency weekdays with no or limited weekend service. Routes like 404, 468, 503, 506, 548 finish early at night and don't run Sundays while 508, 548, 567 and 624 could form orbital links but have weak termini, often stopping short of useful destinations. None of these routes have had significant reform for many years.
Finally there are some missing links, shown in red. Examples include connections from Sunshine to Melbourne Airport, across the inner north from Newmarket to Clifton Hill, via Chandler Hwy and via Burnley St from the inner east to the inner south-east.
Previous analysis has indicated that some weak or missing links could have very high patronage potential. This will inform some of the opportunities I identify later.
The orange links are low frequency weekdays with no or limited weekend service. Routes like 404, 468, 503, 506, 548 finish early at night and don't run Sundays while 508, 548, 567 and 624 could form orbital links but have weak termini, often stopping short of useful destinations. None of these routes have had significant reform for many years.
Finally there are some missing links, shown in red. Examples include connections from Sunshine to Melbourne Airport, across the inner north from Newmarket to Clifton Hill, via Chandler Hwy and via Burnley St from the inner east to the inner south-east.
Previous analysis has indicated that some weak or missing links could have very high patronage potential. This will inform some of the opportunities I identify later.
Background to bus network reform
While bus reform can be done in an area with multiple bus companies (such as Route 900 established in 2006, Brimbank in 2014 and Geelong in 2015) it is less easy than if only one operator was involved (eg 2013 Point Cook, 2015 Wyndham and others).
Having a single operator also makes it easier to shift resources between high and low patronage routes in an area, such as successfully done in 2021 around Doncaster. The inability to take a network (rather than single operator) planning approach probably contributed to the failure of the 2015 Transdev greenfields network proposal as it was effectively a grab from the west to the east with no offsetting gains for other operators' routes in the west.
Melbourne's north has a long history of small family bus operators, with less of the consolidation that happened in the south-east. And even when large operators bought small family routes, there was rarely substantial network reform. Examples include Dysons' purchase of the Reservoir routes and Ventura's purchase of Ivanhoe (both over 10 years ago). In both cases routes and timetables hardly changed, despite short hours, weak termini and poor rail connections being common.
The lesson here is that you can merge operators and change contracts but neither by themselves will guarantee network reform if there is no DTP plan to push it. Also, because there is only a weak culture of infrastructure / service coordination, major projects like level crossing removals and station rebuilds only rarely result in bus reform and connectivity improvements despite the potential opportunities they create.
Melbourne's north has a long history of small family bus operators, with less of the consolidation that happened in the south-east. And even when large operators bought small family routes, there was rarely substantial network reform. Examples include Dysons' purchase of the Reservoir routes and Ventura's purchase of Ivanhoe (both over 10 years ago). In both cases routes and timetables hardly changed, despite short hours, weak termini and poor rail connections being common.
The lesson here is that you can merge operators and change contracts but neither by themselves will guarantee network reform if there is no DTP plan to push it. Also, because there is only a weak culture of infrastructure / service coordination, major projects like level crossing removals and station rebuilds only rarely result in bus reform and connectivity improvements despite the potential opportunities they create.
All this has left Melbourne's north and north-east with a lot of closely spaced or overlapping bus routes that have not had a rethink for decades. More so than areas like Brimbank, Wyndham, Cranbourne and South Morang, which have already benefited from significant network reform in the last decade.
This lag may be why the north and north-east were selected in 2022 as the first two metropolitan areas for bus network reform under Victoria's Bus Plan. It makes sense since a lot appears possible for a low cost. However, with no funding in the 2023 and 2024 state budgets, this along with Greensborough's FlexiRide proposal (which may or may not be a good idea), appears to have stalled.
With time-lines set by previous contracts, operator refranchising thus jumped the queue to become the higher priority, despite lacking tangible passenger benefits. Recontracting also carries a non-trivial amount of risk as we saw with Transdev's underperformance a decade ago, with the zero emissions bus fleet transition a new factor.
With time-lines set by previous contracts, operator refranchising thus jumped the queue to become the higher priority, despite lacking tangible passenger benefits. Recontracting also carries a non-trivial amount of risk as we saw with Transdev's underperformance a decade ago, with the zero emissions bus fleet transition a new factor.
As a means to an end, refranchising should only be celebrated if it delivers better service for passengers, including progress on service levels and network reform. This is something that even the poorly managed Transdev franchise arrangements succeeded in with its generally beneficial 2014 network reforms but not in 2015 when more radical plans lost government backing.
Possibly to avoid controversy, the media release hoses down expectations of progress this time. In its own words, The Metropolitan Zero Emission Bus Franchises will commence operation once the current contracts expire on Sunday, 30 June 2025 – with all existing routes and timetables being maintained.
Potential synergies for simpler bus routes
Possibly to avoid controversy, the media release hoses down expectations of progress this time. In its own words, The Metropolitan Zero Emission Bus Franchises will commence operation once the current contracts expire on Sunday, 30 June 2025 – with all existing routes and timetables being maintained.
Potential synergies for simpler bus routes
In many places 'all existing routes and timetables being maintained' is a bug, not a feature.
This is especially in Melbourne's north and east, which:
(a) has many complex and overlapping bus routes that need reform,
(b) was the department's own first choice as a bus reform area, and
(c) has many routes being transferred between operators, with potential synergies.
This is especially in Melbourne's north and east, which:
(a) has many complex and overlapping bus routes that need reform,
(b) was the department's own first choice as a bus reform area, and
(c) has many routes being transferred between operators, with potential synergies.
Below I'll list some potential network synergies, with a bias towards corridors with high patronage potential or inefficient overlaps (which might make reform cheaper if removed).
* Chandler Hwy connector
Currently only a few trips operate per day on the 609, one of Melbourne's least served bus routes. However is a potential high patronage short-cut across the inner north-east.
The new bus contracts will see this route switch from Dysons to Kinetic. The same will happen with routes 509 and 567 in the area. Route 350, which is not part of these arrangements, will remain with Kinetic.
The 609 is a short route without strong termini. Merging it with another route would make sense. Options include the 508 or 567 with the latter having a potential to form a popular north-south route especially if it finished at a stronger terminus such as Swinburne University. Given that La Trobe University now has the 301 connecting to trains at Reservoir, it may make sense for some of the extra bus hours this concept requires to come from deleting Route 350 which provides no unique coverage, especially since parts of it catchment area recently gained a much upgraded Route 546.
* Inner north upgrades
A big change under these arrangements is that inner north's east-west routes go from being a mix to being operated by Kinetic. This group includes routes like 503 (no Sunday service despite serving new dense housing development areas), 506 (the second busiest Melbourne route without Sunday service after 800), and 508 (a major east-west route that has high patronage potential if weekend frequency is increased).
Out of all Melbourne bus operators Kinetic perhaps has the largest scope for service hours to be redistributed from quieter to busier routes. Examples include quieter parts of some orbitals (though these are perhaps better redistributed to higher weekend frequencies on busier parts of the orbitals) and some individual routes like 350, 603 and 604. Peak frequencies on some CBD routes might also be worth looking at as not all trips may need to go the full length of the route. If such a review was done (basically a 2021 effort Mark II) it is quite possible that a route like 506 could be a beneficiary with new 7 day service given its patronage potential.
Out of all Melbourne bus operators Kinetic perhaps has the largest scope for service hours to be redistributed from quieter to busier routes. Examples include quieter parts of some orbitals (though these are perhaps better redistributed to higher weekend frequencies on busier parts of the orbitals) and some individual routes like 350, 603 and 604. Peak frequencies on some CBD routes might also be worth looking at as not all trips may need to go the full length of the route. If such a review was done (basically a 2021 effort Mark II) it is quite possible that a route like 506 could be a beneficiary with new 7 day service given its patronage potential.
* North-east service redistribution and timetable harmonisation
Panorama routes in the north-east around Eltham will go to Dysons under the new arrangements. Routes like 578, 579 and 580 are overserviced for the usage they get, contributed by their low catchment density and (in some cases) overlaps with other routes.
Meanwhile there's a whole stack of routes in the Reservoir / Epping area that either (a) do not run 7 days, like 559 and/or (b) run every 22-24 minutes (instead of every 20 minutes) so do not mesh with trains (eg 555, 556, 566 and more). These Reservoir area routes have higher patronage potential and serve higher social needs catchments so have a strong justification for improved hours and frequencies. Later on there is substantial scope for network reform to provide even more benefits.
Meanwhile there's a whole stack of routes in the Reservoir / Epping area that either (a) do not run 7 days, like 559 and/or (b) run every 22-24 minutes (instead of every 20 minutes) so do not mesh with trains (eg 555, 556, 566 and more). These Reservoir area routes have higher patronage potential and serve higher social needs catchments so have a strong justification for improved hours and frequencies. Later on there is substantial scope for network reform to provide even more benefits.
Route 468, currently run by Ryans is a short route between Essendon and Highpoint. Its operating hours are limited with no Sunday service. The new contract transfers this to CDC which operates the 408 between Highpoint and St Albans. CDC will also take over the 465 via Buckley St which is inefficiently overlapped by the 903 orbital.
I discussed the potential to swap Route 903 with 408/468 here. This would, for very low cost, deliver a SmartBus orbital to Highpoint with extended hours connections to Sunshine and Essendon station. Highpoint was meant to get the Blue SmartBus orbital but this was abandoned by the then Brumby government in 2008. Unfortunately the 903 was not rerouted to compensate.
The above reform requires cooperation between two bus operators - CDC and Kinetic - and an arrangement such that none loses out. However this should be easier than three, as existed before.
While this is highly speculative, as well as being good for passengers network reform could potentially give operators more geographically contiguous areas. For example rerouting 903 via the 408/468 alignment as well as transferring Route 410 to Kinetic would enable other reforms, such as rationalisation with the existing Kinetic Route 216 and/or 220.
Meanwhile the Altona end of Kinetic's 903 is a relatively weak patronage performer, as is the 232 at some times. Yet there is scope for a simplified high frequency corridor on Millers Rd via the existing Route 411 (operated by CDC) which has potential to be upgraded to SmartBus service standards. Such a transfer of routes to the area may mean that instead of three operators in Altona North there are only two, making future further network reform easier, and, depending on depot locations, reduce dead running.
While these contracts reduce the number of operators in a particular area, they do not reduce it to one. This is because there are different sets of bus operator agreements with different expiry dates. Along with the existence of very long orbital routes, which cut across many areas.
Notable examples of overlaps and gaps whose solution would require arrangements with at least two bus operators include:
* 223/406 - consolidation to form simple frequent 7 days Footscray - Highpoint route, with potential synergies with 409 reform and abovementioned 903 operating via Highpoint. This would require a CDC/Kinetic arrangement - unchanged from now.
* 527/903 - consolidation to form simpler frequent 7 day route between Coburg, Preston, Northland and Heidelberg, with potential for a split at Heidelberg that permits a new connection between Doncaster and La Trobe University. This would need a Ventura/Kinetic arrangement - unchanged from now.
* 404/508 joining. The area around Moonee Ponds is a major 'Berlin wall' for bus services with buses from the east reaching trams but stopping short of the Craigieburn line where they could usefully feed trains. The same factor makes getting from inner north to inner western suburbs difficult by public transport. A fix to this could be extending Route 508 (which will be Kinetic) to Footscray via an amalgamation with Transit Systems' Route 404 as discussed here.
* 548 and 624. Route 548 from the north has a weak southern terminus. While Route 624 from the south has a weak northern terminus. Despite synergies for a strong La Trobe - Caulfield route. Fixing this would require a Ventura/CDC arrangement - ie unchanged from now.
* Some ex-Reservoir bus routes move from Dysons to Kinetic under the new contracts. These include 552, 553 and 558. In their indirectness, illegibility, weak termini, deviations and timetables they rank amongst the worst bus routes in Melbourne. This is messy as the best opportunities to fix these routes might have involved merging with another operator's route, possibly run by Dysons in the north.
Notable examples of overlaps and gaps whose solution would require arrangements with at least two bus operators include:
* 223/406 - consolidation to form simple frequent 7 days Footscray - Highpoint route, with potential synergies with 409 reform and abovementioned 903 operating via Highpoint. This would require a CDC/Kinetic arrangement - unchanged from now.
* 527/903 - consolidation to form simpler frequent 7 day route between Coburg, Preston, Northland and Heidelberg, with potential for a split at Heidelberg that permits a new connection between Doncaster and La Trobe University. This would need a Ventura/Kinetic arrangement - unchanged from now.
* 404/508 joining. The area around Moonee Ponds is a major 'Berlin wall' for bus services with buses from the east reaching trams but stopping short of the Craigieburn line where they could usefully feed trains. The same factor makes getting from inner north to inner western suburbs difficult by public transport. A fix to this could be extending Route 508 (which will be Kinetic) to Footscray via an amalgamation with Transit Systems' Route 404 as discussed here.
* 548 and 624. Route 548 from the north has a weak southern terminus. While Route 624 from the south has a weak northern terminus. Despite synergies for a strong La Trobe - Caulfield route. Fixing this would require a Ventura/CDC arrangement - ie unchanged from now.
* Some ex-Reservoir bus routes move from Dysons to Kinetic under the new contracts. These include 552, 553 and 558. In their indirectness, illegibility, weak termini, deviations and timetables they rank amongst the worst bus routes in Melbourne. This is messy as the best opportunities to fix these routes might have involved merging with another operator's route, possibly run by Dysons in the north.
Conclusion
The consolidated operating areas for many of our bus routes offer opportunities for cost-effective network synergies that deliver better bus service to more people and, by increasing public transport's mode share, help drive down emissions.
However just because the contracts have changed doesn't mean they'll automatically happen. This requires DTP to revive its (apparently mothballed) Bus Plan, including developing a workable Bus Reform Implementation Plan.
However the opportunities, should it choose to accept this challenge, will be immense. Especially given that timetables and driver rosters will need rewriting anyway as more ZEBs with their charging requirements come online.
Read other Useful Network items here
However just because the contracts have changed doesn't mean they'll automatically happen. This requires DTP to revive its (apparently mothballed) Bus Plan, including developing a workable Bus Reform Implementation Plan.
However the opportunities, should it choose to accept this challenge, will be immense. Especially given that timetables and driver rosters will need rewriting anyway as more ZEBs with their charging requirements come online.
Read other Useful Network items here
