After an early release, deletion and then re-release, details for the new Lara - Avalon Airport bus are now available. The new Route 18 will replace the existing very short Route 11 (which didn't serve the airport). It is intended to provide access to jobs and a basic connection for airport passengers from the nearest station at Lara on a standard Myki fare. Previously Avalon Airport had no public transport except for private shuttles too expensive for regular commuter use.
The new service will start this Sunday, March 15 with the premier's media release here. Its introduction follows a local campaign for worker transport to airport precinct jobs.
Demands for better transport to Avalon go back a while. Most famously then opposition leader and later premier Ted Baillieu promised an Avalon rail link in 2010. This was a rash promise that, along with lines to Doncaster and Rowville, cemented that government's reputation for promising big but building little in transport.
A response proportionate to Avalon's usage would have involved a simple bus route from the nearest station. After waiting 15 years we're finally getting that with Route 18 in a few days.
Demands for better transport to Avalon go back a while. Most famously then opposition leader and later premier Ted Baillieu promised an Avalon rail link in 2010. This was a rash promise that, along with lines to Doncaster and Rowville, cemented that government's reputation for promising big but building little in transport.
A response proportionate to Avalon's usage would have involved a simple bus route from the nearest station. After waiting 15 years we're finally getting that with Route 18 in a few days.
Trust central to airport transport success
Travel to an airport is very different to a casual outing to the shops a few kilometres away. Whether it's bus or train, just one thing matters when it comes to airport transport for passengers. Trust.
That is trust that transport will show up so you don't miss your flight. And, when landing, you can trust that transport is available even if your flight gets delayed.
If people don't trust one form of airport transport then they will pay a premium for something that they do since: (a) the consequences of unreliable transport are very high, (b) most people spending their own money only fly occasionally so a bit extra can be shrugged off and (c) most frequent flyers either have their expenses paid for by others or are big spenders. And second only to reliability the ease of buying a ticket is more important than its absolute cost.
Where the bus dumps you at nowhere significant (sorry Lara residents!) and relies on a train connection for major destinations like Geelong, Tarneit, Footscray and Melbourne, another layer of trust is required. That means (i) reliable and enforced timed connections with trains, (ii) the trains themselves to be reliable and (iii) acceptable connectivity even when replacement buses are operating.
If Route 18's timetable does not have trust at the centre of its design then the new service will fail, ie it will be more symbolic than useful, especially for airport users. I'll analyse this later.
Route 18's timetable
Where the bus dumps you at nowhere significant (sorry Lara residents!) and relies on a train connection for major destinations like Geelong, Tarneit, Footscray and Melbourne, another layer of trust is required. That means (i) reliable and enforced timed connections with trains, (ii) the trains themselves to be reliable and (iii) acceptable connectivity even when replacement buses are operating.
If Route 18's timetable does not have trust at the centre of its design then the new service will fail, ie it will be more symbolic than useful, especially for airport users. I'll analyse this later.
Route 18's timetable
Transport Victoria's news item says that Route 18 will run 21 trips on weekdays and 20 trips on weekends. That counts both directions so it's about half that each way. They claim a service span of early morning to 'around midnight', though the latter is only true for trips from Avalon; trips from Lara finish around 10pm. However that's still a wider span than most Geelong area bus routes, especially on weekends. Travel from Lara Station to Avalon will take approximately 12 to 14 minutes.
If we're talking buses in Melbourne and the major regional cities, the general expectation is something that runs every 30 to 60 minutes and hopefully 7 days. Some routes are more frequent while others are less.
Route 18's timetable cannot be easily summarised. As mentioned before its operating hours are longer than average but its frequency is highly variable. So much so that intervals between services can be 4 hours or more as shown below.
This isn't so much of a problem for those wishing to leave the Greater Avalon Employment precinct around 2:20pm on a weekday. This is because they can board a trip to the airport, wait a few minutes (presumably on the same bus) and shortly be off to Lara.
As seen below only 5 out of 12 weekday trips that depart Avalon (either the airport or the employment precinct) are formed by inbound trips arriving from Lara.
Where do these trips come from? Possibly from dead runs from some other routes that terminate at Lara, eg 10 and/or 12.
My understanding is that many bus operator contracts are structured so that operators are paid by in-service hours and kilometres. This incentivises operators to devise schedules that minimise dead running as this increases their margin. However this may also reduce the incentive for DTP to maximise passenger benefits as converting an empty trip to a live trip (desirable to improve frequency) may involve additional payment for kilometres that would be operated anyway.
Transport Victoria helpfully explains features of the Route 18 timetable, as follows:
Transport Victoria helpfully explains features of the Route 18 timetable, as follows:
* Route 18 will connect with trains at Lara Station, mainly for services to and from Geelong, making it easier for people working at GAEP to travel by public transport.
* Route 18 will connect with most GAEP shift times. Buses will usually arrive and depart about 20 minutes before and after shifts.
* Route 18 will connect with most flights at Avalon Airport. Buses will arrive 75 - 120 minutes before departing flights and 30 minutes after flights arrive.
* There will be stops at GAEP on Canberra Drive and at Avalon Airport near the terminal entrance making it easy to access these places.
Train connections
Train connections
The above says that access to and from Geelong is a priority. There's big populations at Wyndham Vale and Tarneit on the Geelong line but train connections for them are a secondary priority. However with trains every 20 minutes most of the day hopefully waits for connections won't be too long even in the Melbourne direction.
What about train to bus connections at Lara from Geelong that Transport Victoria says have been optimised? A 10 minute connection time is generally allowed. On weekday mornings where it can be less people have a practical option of taking an earlier train which those getting flights would do.
However connections to the first bus on both Saturday and Sunday are a tight 5 minutes. The late start of weekend V/Line trains (unlike Metro which runs all night) means that there is no alternative like catching an earlier train. In my view this is too tight, especially given V/Line's fairly ordinary punctuality and cancellation record (which, despite some public perceptions, is inferior to Metro's).
What about train to bus connections at Lara from Geelong that Transport Victoria says have been optimised? A 10 minute connection time is generally allowed. On weekday mornings where it can be less people have a practical option of taking an earlier train which those getting flights would do.
However connections to the first bus on both Saturday and Sunday are a tight 5 minutes. The late start of weekend V/Line trains (unlike Metro which runs all night) means that there is no alternative like catching an earlier train. In my view this is too tight, especially given V/Line's fairly ordinary punctuality and cancellation record (which, despite some public perceptions, is inferior to Metro's).
Are connections enforced?
Transport Victoria do not mention whether Route 18 trips are held either for late arriving planes or V/Line trains.
When service is frequent, like Skybus from Tullamarine, you would depart buses regardless (with the possible exception of the last trip for the day). That's because it's never long until the next bus and holding buses hinders more people than it helps.
But when bus service is both infrequent and intended to connect then you might have a holding policy to guarantee connections for all but the longest delays. An example is where hourly Night Network buses wait up to 20 minutes for late arriving trains (also hourly).
Will people use and trust the 18 bus?
But when bus service is both infrequent and intended to connect then you might have a holding policy to guarantee connections for all but the longest delays. An example is where hourly Night Network buses wait up to 20 minutes for late arriving trains (also hourly).
In Route 18's case you might consider holding services (i) on the first trips that are meant to meet the first trains and (ii) where planes are delayed and there is a long gap to the next bus. However such decisions may be dependent on effects on other routes that may be interlined with Route 18.
Will people use and trust the 18 bus?
Workers might. But I'm not sure about airport users for whom trust is everything. Trust requires a timetable that does not have such huge gaps or at least some form of holding policy to ensure connections.
Route 18 is a cut price attempt to provide an industrial style route for Avalon precinct workers with the airport passenger transit role a happy by-product. Its resourcing works out at maybe half a bus per day with the rest being either idle time, dead running or operating another route.
In contrast, had the 18 been allocated a dedicated bus then it might have been possible to operate a 30 min peak / 40 min off-peak service meeting every second train. Still basic but it has resilience for late planes that the current timetable lacks. While some trips may be very quiet, the trust such a regular service engenders may make its trips operated at other times much busier. Such a service also provides a 'safety net' for workers with part-time shifts or who need to go home in an emergency.
A consistent frequency on Route 18 would provide a level of trust (and therefore patronage) that the proposed skeleton service would not. Until the former is provided my tip is that the latter will struggle to attract (especially) airport passenger patronage, especially if no means are provided for passengers to purchase myki tickets (which they can at Tullamarine where there is a machine, albeit not at the expected location in the bus interchange).
See other Timetable Tuesday items here
