TT 240: Three Train Timetabling Tidbits

A trio of topics today. 

1. Ten minute service on the Upfield line possible with existing infrastructure

A creative response by Metro Trains to the weekend's shutdown of the Craigieburn, Werribee and Williamstown lines due to works was an increased frequency on the Upfield line. Instead of every 20 minutes extra short trips from Batman were inserted to enable an even 10 minute headway from Coburg in. 

For the inner part of the Upfield line this is a better service than the 16 minute peak headway, limited due to the single track section north of Gowrie. It will be interesting to see how resilient this timetable was against delays in practice. 

2. Strike causes bus replacements due to HCMT fleet shortage

From today until further notice buses will replace trains between Watergardens and Sunbury and Dandenong and Cranbourne due to a shortage of available trains arising from a maintenance dispute. Other lines (which use different trains) are unaffected. 

These planned disruptions are Metro's response to the more random cancellations that plagued these lines late last week. 

  

3. New harmonised cross-platform interchange at South Yarra

An example of a nice thing that passengers learn rather than being told about is the August timetable's provision of a cross platform interchange between trains from Frankston and trains to Sandringham at South Yarra. 

While this interchange had long been physically possible, the other ingredient, timetable integration, had been absent. This is because the Frankston line ran every 10 min versus 15 min for the Sandringham line weekday interpeak. That resulted in uneven connection times. 

In bringing Sandringham up to every 10 minutes the lines are now harmonised with a consistent transfer time. This is a constant three minutes in between the weekday peaks, making the connection very usable. Because the Sandringham line remains at every 20 minutes on weekends a good connection will only be possible with every second Frankston line train during the day. 

On a network level the Sandringham line weekday upgrade means that all lines in Melbourne's south-east enjoys midday trains every 10 min on weekdays. In conjunction with frequent trams this makes the inner south-east one of the best transport served parts of Melbourne.  

Normally when a Metro or V/Line timetable changes there are complementary changes to bus timetables to retain connections. That has limitations. For example we still have a lot of bus routes that cannot consistently connect with trains due to their odd headways (eg every 22, 25 or 30 minutes in an area where trains are every 20 minutes). 

The southern half of the Sandringham line has a mix of east-west and (mostly) poorly used north-south bus routes that (in some cases) parallel train lines. It is also an area that has had little bus network reform. Thus its routes are complex and infrequent with some overlaps. There have also been community calls for upgrades of the 606 route between Fishermans Bend, Port Melbourne and Elsternwick.  

The 23 August 2026 timetable change for the Sandringham line was not accompanied by bus timetable changes. That includes routes like 600/922/923 which previously had a timetable coordinated with the train. 

For reasons mentioned before it would be desirable if reco-ordination was accompanied by simplified bus routes that better distributed service to where it was needed. I identified scope for this last year but the opportunity to take this up has not yet been taken up. 

See other Timetable Tuesday items here

Auditor General reports on SRL budget and progress

Read the report on the VAGO website here. 

This found that the SRL was likely to run over budget and had a high chance of running over time. The government also had problems funding it. 

As for the fare levy that's been the most prominent part of the audit reported in the media, my views are these: 

Yes the state government was stupid in not disclosing the 1% SRL fare rise levy (as uncovered by Victorian Auditor-General yesterday). But fast and frequent PT that goes more places beats poor PT that doesn't. The dearest trip is that which cannot be practically be made on PT - and without good orbital PT that's most trips.

Governments from both sides have botched fare setting. They have been masters at implementing fare systems that are either insanely free ('free' tram zone), stupidly cheap (V/Line trips) or crazily expensive (many short trips) for perceived electoral advantage. And until very recently fare payment on trams and buses for spontaneous travel was too difficult. All have weakened value & social licence of PT and fare collection.

TT 239: Rail frequencies: Do we have what we were meant to have by 2016?

Executive Summary: Melbourne planned to have many Metro lines running every 10 minutes off-peak by 2016 and some more by 2022. Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail) execution is over a decade behind schedule with implementation at less than half the pace envisaged. However the future is brighter with major Metro service boosts resuming in 2026 after a 'lost decade' where little happened.  

New train timetables started on Sunday, August 23, 2026. These close Sunday morning 40 min gaps on five Metro lines, boost evening Upfield and Craigieburn train services, boost Sandringham interpeak services, restore cross-city running and add peak frequency for Werribee. There are also some V/Line changes, notably extra capacity and frequency for the Geelong corridor and substantial service upgrades for Shepparton and Seymour. All up about 400 services per week were added. Learn more about them in my analysis here. 

These are the first Metro timetable changes since the Metro Tunnel commenced full service on February 1. That delivered increased day and night frequency between Sunbury and Pakenham/Cranbourne, with the core section between West Footscray and Dandenong operating every 10 minutes or better, an unheard-of service level for Melbourne which I dubbed Metro 130. Around 1000 services per week were added, boosting Metro's total to around 18 000 per week. The Frankston line also returned to the City Loop. More details here.

Before that the most important Metro timetable change was on January 31, 2021. That added around 450 trips and tidied many long-standing loose ends including running the Caulfield and cross-city groups more consistently. 

Apart from that 2015 - 2025 was a lean decade for Metro (but not V/Line) timetables as government interest flipped from service to infrastructure. Some of the changes of 2021 and 2026 were those that were proposed to have happened in 2015 but did not. Bear in mind that the Andrews government had only been elected late the previous year and was on a thin margin. And Jacinta Allan, the responsible minister, was quite risk averse on matters like bus reform or asking train passengers to change (such as would happen if Frankston trains were taken out of the City Loop). 

2016 was significant for two reasons. Firstly it was the year the Metro Tunnel Business Case came out. Its Day One Service Plan set down service level standards for Day One of the Metro Tunnel. This included ten minute off-peak service on the core of the Metro Tunnel, the Craigieburn line and at least part of the Upfield line. That overdelivered for the Watergardens - Sunshine section but under delivered for Craigieburn and Upfield with regards to ten minute service. 

Secondly 2016 was to be an achievement deadline for large part of the Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail). This was intended to deliver simpler greenfield timetables and a 10 minute off-peak frequency on the bulk of the rail network by 2021, with most busy lines done by 2016. 

As noted before, the 2012 Network Development Plan's 'service first, build later' approach developed under the Liberals was not embraced by the new Labor government. They were instead driven by 'Project 10000', a scheme to create 10 000 construction sector jobs. That gave birth to the 'Big Build' and the primacy of infrastructure, particularly transport, to the government's story and, for at least three state elections, political success. 

For reasons that would require delving into political-industrial relationships, construction sector jobs were apparently more highly regarded than train or bus driver jobs despite the former being temporary and the latter being ongoing. And so the government lost interest in metropolitan rail service (or for that matter bus reform). That compares to the 2008 - 2015 period when political consensus in favour of improved service was stronger. 

As a result the government over-delivered on infrastructure (with the possible exception of the Western Rail Plan) but underdelivered on service with 2015 - 2025 being effectively a lost decade for the roll-out of frequent all day train service in Melbourne. 

What 2016 network aims were achieved by 2026?

The map below compares lines that were slated for 10 minute frequency by 2016 in the 2012 NDP with what actually exists in 2026 (click image for a better view). 

To summarise, in 2026 we were meant to have frequent service on 7 major train lines if the 2012 plan was followed. These being Craigieburn, South Morang (as Mernda then was), Ringwood, Glen Waverley, Dandenong, Frankston and Sandringham. Two more (Werribee and Macleod) were to follow by 2022.

Instead we have it on only four on weekdays (Watergardens, Dandenong, Frankston, Sandringham) and a different four on weekends (Watergardens, Ringwood, Dandenong, Frankston). 

2016 10 minute network - current state of play

Newport: Already achieved
Watergardens: Overachieved with Metro Tunnel
Craigieburn: Not achieved (but 20 min max waits instituted)
Upfield: Not achieved (but 20 min max waits instituted)
Mernda: Not achieved (but Sunday morning upgrades)
Ringwood: Not achieved
Glen Waverley: Not achieved
Dandenong: Achieved with Metro Tunnel
Frankston: Already achieved
Sandringham: Achieved on weekdays (and 20 min max waits instituted)

2022 10 minute network - current state of play

Werribee: Not achieved (but 20 min max waits instituted)
Macleod: Not achieved (but Sunday morning upgrades)

Timing of service upgrades - resuming after a long break

As for what happened when, there was fast roll-out of ten minute Metro train service between about 2010 and 2014 and again in 2026. This is mapped below:  

The four major corridors that should have got ten minute service by 2016 but still lacked it in 2026 were Craigieburn, Mernda, Ringwood and Glen Waverley.

Craigieburn's need survived the change of government - the 2016 Metro Tunnel Business Case service plan had it (and at least part of Upfield) running every 10 minutes from Day One but that did not happen. That is two (not one) deadlines were missed, the latter set under the current government.  

Summing up, the plan to upgrade Metro Train frequencies by 2016 only got half done with even that ten years slower than envisaged. This is because instead of getting as much as possible done before the Metro Tunnel (as was the NDP's aim with most frequency upgrades done by 2022), the current government deferred almost all service increases to after the Metro Tunnel. Even those that were meant to happen on Metro Tunnel Day 1 (Craigieburn and Upfield) and those operationally independent of it (eg Ringwood and Glen Waverley). Also the pandemic cannot entirely be blamed as the decision to stall service uplifts appeared to have been made in 2015 with path dependency ever since. 

It wasn't all doom though. Some things got done, with 2026 marking a major turning point with some outstanding matters from 2016 and 2022 resolved.

The Metro Tunnel timetable of February 2026 especially improved service for the Sunbury line along with weekend evenings for Pakenham and Cranbourne. 

And while not ten minute service roll-outs, the move to cut 40 minute gaps to 20 minutes was still very important - and low cost in terms of extra driver hours needed. August 2026 examples include Craigieburn and Upfield maximum waits cut from 40 to 20 minutes along with brought forward Sunday morning boosts for Mernda and Hurstbridge. Sandringham's Sunday morning boost was never announced but proved a welcome surprise.  

What should be next for 10 and 20 min upgrades?

If you were to rethink the next four lines today in line for 10 minute service one would possibly make Craigieburn, Ringwood, Mernda and Werribee, priorities with the last growing faster than Glen Waverley. Although Glen Waverley may be necessary to harmonise Burnley trains to a ten minute base service.  

However in the interim it is imperative (and cost-effective) to remove the remaining 30 minute gaps on the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups, 40+ minute gaps on the Geelong and Melton lines as well as finally tackling remaining 60 minute Sunday morning gaps by adding two trips from the city on each line. This would end hourly service at 7am rather than 9am. In at least one case a much more desirable 30 minute service is possible by simply formalising an existing non-PSR train. 

The cost in extra driver hours in of plugging those remaining long gaps is small and it would overcome one of the main objections people have to taking public transport. 

See other Timetable Tuesday items here