UN 118: PTUA's 2016 bus network proposals - a review

Anyone can make lists of potential bus service upgrades. More than a small number has appeared here. Today though we’ll look at one developed a while back by the Public Transport Users Association, our main passenger advocacy group.

Combined with rail and tram extensions you can read it here: https://www.ptua.org.au/policy/network/

It was written in 2016 so bear that in mind when you see it. Since then we’ve seen continued fringe growth and government announcements on projects including Airport Rail, the Suburban Rail Loop and a Caulfield to Rowville tram. These can affect bus network planning, both if you want buses as a precursor to rail projects and later when improved transport is needed to feed rail. 

The preamble talks about the ‘network effect’. Basically if you improve frequency on one route you not only assist travel along it but also connectivity to intersecting routes. If the intersecting routes are also frequent then you multiply the number of destinations that are accessible via a short wait and transfer. In theory that can deliver patronage gains by a higher percentage than the service added. This concept was presented in various academic papers, manuals and books, notably by the late Paul Mees (who was PTUA president in much of the 1990s).

Below are the PTUA’s 2016 bus service priorities. My comments on them follow.

1. Inner-suburban “blue orbital” Smartbus connecting Footscray, Moonee Ponds, Brunswick, Clifton Hill, Richmond, St Kilda and Elsternwick (incorporating routes 246 and 472) enabling more inner-cross-suburban trips without having to travel via the CBD.

Partly useful.

As background, the government proposed the ‘Blue Orbital’ about 15 years ago to run from Sandringham to Williamstown. It (and the western part of the Green Orbital) was dropped from plans a few years later. The 246 in the east is already 1.5 to 2 times as frequent as a SmartBus. The 472’s western end does not serve any major destinations that its parallel Williamstown line train doesn’t, although it does have some unique residential catchment. Similar weaknesses exist at the Sandringham – Brighton end. Nevertheless there is a major need for frequent east-west buses across Melbourne’s inner north as far west as Highpoint that would suit a SmartBus. However Footscray to Highpoint justifies a superior service to a SmartBus, particularly on weekends. And it already has 7 buses per hour on existing confusing routes so just needs reform to deliver a simple 10 minute frequency.

Although a simple concept, this proposal would overservice some areas while underserving others. Therefore I cannot recommend it. The 246 is best left on its own with its current enhanced frequency. Highpoint is better served with a rerouted 903 along with simpler reformed buses to Footscray. And Williamstown Road can be upgraded much cheaper with more service hours on the 472 south of Footscray (particularly on Sunday). It would be more useful instead to ditch the orbital idea in favour of one or preferably two existing routes upgraded to SmartBus across the inner north (eg Route 508 and likely 506 plus the very economical 904 MegaBus concept).

2. High-frequency connection from Broadmeadows to Melbourne Airport, supplementing existing route 901, to provide better connections from the northern suburbs to the airport precinct

The existing 901 already runs every 15 minutes on weekdays. Its main issues include (a) its 15 minute frequency does not harmonise with trains at Broadmeadows, (b) the poor 30 minute frequency on weekends and (c) an early Sunday night finish (9pm).

A case could be made for a couple of buses to run between existing trips to provide a 30 minute weekend service but connections with trains (that can be as infrequent as every 40 minutes, eg on Sunday mornings) will remain an issue until these are upgraded.

Overall though I’d spend the money instead on numerous smaller upgrades, eg running all Broadmeadows/Campbellfield/Glenroy buses seven days, higher bus frequencies at Craigieburn (which we're getting in April 2022), better coverage in growth areas like Attwood and network reform to make buses simpler. If improved airport connectivity is required I’d instead suggest a fast Sunshine – Airport bus (the Route 500 concept) as a precursor to Airport Rail.

3. Extend shuttle 401 to North Richmond station, enabling better connections from the South Morang/Mernda and Hurstbridge lines

This has merit as Melbourne sorely lacks east-west bus connectivity across CBD fringe areas to the north. To some extent it has been overtaken by events as the government introduced the frequent 202 shuttle from Parkville to Victoria Park earlier this year. However the very frequent 401 will not need to be run as intensively (or at all) after the Metro Tunnel opens in 2025 so this might be the trigger for a rethink involving a longer route between say North Melbourne and Victoria Park..

4. Mornington Peninsula route 788 upgrade to at least every 30 minutes, to better connect with trains and cut waiting times on the principal public transport route on the Peninsula

Supported. And mostly implemented with major service upgrades in late 2021. Services now run every 30 minutes weekday and 40 minutes weekend, with a 30 minute service running during summer peaks.  Further network improvements happened in February 2022 but 7 day service and longer operating hours (some routes finish before 4pm!) remain a pressing need on the peninsula. 

5. LaTrobe University to Glenferrie station bus route to provide high-frequency bus services across the Yarra (via Chandler Highway), serving multiple universities and major activity centres such as Northland

Has merit but should require general bus reform in the area for most benefit. A connection south to Caulfield is arguably of even stronger patronage potential, filling a huge network gap across the east and south-east.

Key steps in such a revamped network involving two upgraded La Trobe University routes might include:

1. Split the 903 at Heidelberg with portion west operating as different route (904) and merged with 527 to deliver a 10 minute frequency at least to Coburg. Extend eastern part of 903 to LaTrobe University (via Heidelberg and replacing 551 bus).

2. Merge 548 and 624 into a single route (620) operating directly between La Trobe University and Monash Caulfield, passing quite close to Swinburne at Auburn. An additional local route would run in the Springthorpe area to replace straightened 548. And 624 would be simplified and shortened, with parts west of Chadstone being replaced by a rerouted 623 and 734 extended to Caulfield.

Conclusion

The PTUA has come up with some useful bus service upgrades. It's good that a couple can be considered substantially done. Also if you had to revisit the exercise in 2022 you may have other priorities, especially where they could complement major projects including the Metro Tunnel, Airport Rail and the Suburban Rail Loop. Your thoughts are appreciated and can be left below. 

More Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here

TT #153: Tram 78

The 78 tram is a rare thing in Melbourne. It’s one of just two fixed rail routes that do not eventually go into the CBD. Instead it provides a tangential connection between many radial train and tram lines in Melbourne’s inner east and south-east. And, like Route 82, its non-CBD cousin in the inner-west, it rates low in the pecking order when it comes to service upgrades and new trams. Both routes have reputations for slowness, though 78 is dead straight, serving just two streets of ecclesiastical names.

The 78 tram is locally significant. It cannot be separated from the life of Chapel St in Windsor and Prahran. And it passes through diverse neighbourhoods, from 1800s housing to modern, ethnic to Anglo, high to low income, chick to shabby, smooth to gritty. Extremes coexist around here; people can range from being there to be seen to being there to inject. But most are just doing what regular people do in a city.   

While Chapel and Church are now single route streets, it wasn’t always thus. For many years the 78 was not a full time tram route. Part of the time services ran as the 79 which was like the 78 except it missed the bottom bit to turn off to St Kilda beach instead. The 79 was discontinued in 2014 with the 78 made full-time. Go back even earlier to the 1980s and you also had the 77 which had come from Flinders St via Swan St before heading south via Chapel. The 77 was discontinued in 1986, apparently due to low patronage. Between the three routes (two running at any one time) Chapel St especially likely saw more trams then than now. 

The 78 intersects (at right angles) with more radial tram routes than almost any other tram due to its geometry. Possibly half of Melbourne’s tram routes are one change away from the 78. It is also the last significant north-south connection across Melbourne’s south-east until the 16 tram. This makes the 78 of key network importance if we valued non-CBD and short cross-suburban trips in planning (spoiler: We don’t). 

The 78 properly intersects with trains at two places. These include the minor East Richmond station (which people joke about their train not stopping at) and Windsor on the Sandringham line (parallel to this portion of the 78). The 78 passes near the Mernda and Hurstbridge lines (nearest station North Richmond) and the Frankston, Cranbourne and Pakenham lines (nearest station South Yarra). These are not convenient interchanges due to walking distances however they would still be done by some people. 

Service levels 

Route 78 is one of the least commuter-oriented tram routes. Unlike others there are no clear ‘inbound’ and ‘outbound’ directions. It may act as a feeder for some stations but it is likely faster for people to walk to stations near it. Timetables reflect this non-commuter focus. Weekday peak frequencies are typically 12-15 minutes while interpeak intervals are a more even 12 minutes. Early morning weekday headways are 30 minutes while evening service drops off to the standard 20 minute headway after about 7:30 to 8pm. 

Saturday service levels are quite similar to weekdays except that the midday frequency is 15 rather than 12 minutes.  This does not harmonise with trains that typically run every 20 minutes. 

On Sundays frequencies are every 30 minutes before about 10:30am and after 7:30pm. Between those times they are every 15 minutes except for a short transition in the morning where service is nearer 20 minutes. 

New Years typically sees 24 hour service on trains and trams. 78 and 82 are the main exceptions. Being non-radial routes they are not seen as supporting the festivities in the CBD so do not run. 

The service difference between the 78 and St Kilda Rd routes (with basic 12 min weekday/15 min weekend/ 20 min Mon – Sat evening and 30 min Sun evening service) is small.  Nevertheless small things are enough to make the 78 the second least frequent full-time tram route on the network, beating only the 82.  

Potential and Advocacy

The 78 could be more than it is. At no time does it run a turn-up-and-go frequency. This is important if the route is to become a feeder to the numerous routes and lines it intersects. It, and its stops are a long way from being DDA compliant. Also travel speeds are slow. 

What about the route itself? Could it be connected better with the rest of the network? 

I mentioned before how the 78 passes near but doesn't connect to some major train lines. Regretably rail geometry isn't favourable in the south-east; a new station at Chapel St in the short gap between South Yarra and Hawksburn is highly unlikely. Calls for a South Yarra stop on  the under construction Metro Tunnel have gone unheeded and even if it was built it wouldn't necessarily be nearer the 78 than the existing South Yarra Station.

So if the train won't move for the tram, could the tram move for the train? The most promising would appear to be an 800 metre extension of the northern end to terminate at North Richmond Station (which would also pass two supermarkets). This would greatly improve local connectivity as it would save the need to board the 12 or 109 for a couple of stops. There is a short overlap of routes but in a dense urban area this is acceptable given the reduced transfer penalties for passengers. 

More radically it may be possible to join the 78 to the 30 to provide an L-shaped circumferential route. An issue with this is how it ties in with other things you might wish to do with the tram network. I mentioned before the potential benefits of deleting Route 30 and rerouting the 12 to provide better connections to the northern part of the CBD and to Southern Cross Station from it. If you did that you might just terminate the 78 at North Richmond Station and call it job done. Ultimately though there does need to be a direct east-west tram across the CBD's northern fringe (including along a section of Victoria St that has no tram lines) with a terminus at North Melbourne or Arden station. A future upgraded and extended L-shaped 78 may be part of the solution here. 

Prahran MP Sam Hibbins has started a campaign on improving the 78 tram with a letter to Minister Carroll. Results from a survey also (with an unspecified number of participants) appear on his website. Frequency was the highest priority for improvement, closely followed by speed. New trams and level access stops were next. 24 hour service was least important.  As for why people caught the 78, the top two reasons were shopping and meeting friends. Work was relatively unimportant though it's hard to draw conclusions as we do not know when the survey was conducted and there has been widespread working from home. As for when people caught it, weekends were more than twice as popular as so-called peak hours, with midday also popular. 

As well as being the local MP for the southern end of the 78 tram, Mr Hibbins is also the Victorian Greens transport spokesperson. Under his watch the Victorian Greens has weakened its interest in  improved public transport, especially in the suburbs. 

As an example the party presented quite strong service policies (including for buses) in its 2018 campaign. These have hardly been spoken about since. In 2020 the Victorian Greens proposed a 'Green New Deal' that boosted trains, trams and cycling but ignored buses and walking. The urban and political geography of this modal bias is interesting; trams and commuter cycling are more prevalent in affluent Green-held seats while the ignored buses and walking are the only non-driving transport options in many (mostly Labor) outer and lower income areas. It would seem that Greens transport policy emphasis is increasingly to an inner suburban elite with little to offer others, especially in outer suburbs.  

2021 saw a further shift to favour an even more elite (and likely price-insensitive) group. That year almost all their energies in transport went towards encouraging electric car driving by participating in a tax revolt-style campaign against a modest EV user charge introduced by the Andrews government. The EV focus has distanced Victorian Greens from public and active transport advocates who might otherwise find their policies attractive. Individual Greens MPs have supported some public transport service upgrades in their seats (Tim Read 505 bus, Ellen Sandell 402 bus, now Sam Hibbins with 78 tram) but they have offered little critique of the bigger picture in transport despite well-documented shortcomings of the current Labor state government they could exploit (eg an under-emphasis on service aspects).  

With a tough campaign coming up in 2022 it will be interesting to see we see a renewed interest from all parties in public transport service as key to making the network more useful and improving peoples lives. There's benefits for all parties in 'switching to service'. Labor could sell it as realising the benefits of their infrastructure program, Liberals could use it as part of a critique of Labor while Greens could reconnect with potential supporters in transport that their recent emphases has cast off. More on why this is important here. 

Conclusion

Current policy settings towards trams have been relatively stagnant. 'Big Builds' on the roads, on the trains and in the suburbs are more politically fashionable. Small infrastructure and service upgrades are much less so. Thus we haven't seen significant tram service upgrades for years. Trams continue to be delayed severely by cars with which they (unfortunately) share most of their routes with. There are some DDA stop upgrades but the Auditor-General found that the pace is slow relative to what is required. The 78 exemplifies these issues more than most other tram routes.  

Victoria's political geography doesn't always help trams. Most marginal seats are concentrated in outer eastern and southern regions a long way from trams (2022 Vic state election guide here). It is in these plus some regional areas that the main Labor / Coalition battles will be fought. 

However 78 is somewhat of an exception. It serves at least two seats that cannot be ignored by two if not three parties. Notably Prahran. Boundary changes have this as favouring Labor (despite having a sitting Green MP in Sam Hibbins) but Antony Green still says that he's still in with a chance. The Liberals have higher support here than in the north and even won Prahran in 2010. So their voters' preferences could be critical. 

Richmond, through which the northern end of the 78 passes, is also somewhat marginal. While the redistribution again strengthens Labor slightly, the retirement of Richard Wynne (the current Labor MP) means that there's no established name for Labor to draw on, weakening their position. Hence this too will likely be on the Greens priority campaign list. 

With these battles looming you may well be hearing more about the 78 tram in the upcoming state election campaign. 

Timetable Tuesday index

Election 2022 Special: Public transport upgrades by seat - Part 6 Summary

In the last few weeks we've been going through public transport upgrades for each Melbourne Legislative Assembly seat. 

How to win votes with public transport explained why it's politically important. Good public transport can contribute to a kitchen table / hip pocket / how we live basic services agenda. Unlike many contentious social issues it is refreshingly non-ideological, so parties and candidates can advocate improvements without having to choose between appealing to religious or non-religious people. Also, unlike big infrastructure, boosting transit service is scaleable, targetable to many sites and fast to deliver with benefits possible well within one term.  

The metropolitan overview in Part 1 listed 12 big service initiatives. These had metropolitan-wide benefits but were skewed to the marginal seats. 

Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5 went into seat by seat detail, starting with the more marginal seats.  

To identify areas missing out on good service, and to compare service levels between suburbs, see Melbourne's updated interactive frequent service maps and after 10pm guides. These give a simple-at-a-glance view of where improved frequency is needed.

Below are two seat by seat indexes for easy referral. The first is a straight alphabetical index. The second is sorted by Legislative Council region. Of note is that some regions you might think of as being rural (especially Eastern Victoria) have a large outer Melbourne metropolitan component. Also notable is where the marginal seats are distributed - they are mostly an outer east and south thing plus some affluent 'southern metropolitan' seats. 

Melbourne seats - alphabetical index

Albert Park Part 3

Ashwood Part 2

Bass Part 2

Bayswater Part 2

Bentleigh Part 3

Berwick Part 2

Box Hill Part 2

Brighton Part 2

Broadmeadows Part 5

Brunswick Part 2

Bulleen Part 2

Bundoora Part 4

Caulfield Part 2

Carrum Part 3

Clarinda Part 4

Cranbourne Part 3

Croydon Part 2

Dandenong  Part 5 

Eildon Part 2

Eltham Part 3

Essendon Part 4

Evelyn Part 2

Footscray Part 5

Frankston Part 3

Glen Waverley Part 2

Greenvale Part 5

Hastings Part 2

Hawthorn Part 2

Ivanhoe Part 3

Kalkallo  Part 5

Kew Part 2

Kororoit Part 5

Laverton Part 5

Malvern Part 4

Melbourne Part 2

Melton Part 2

Mill Park Part 5

Mornington Part 2

Monbulk Part 3

Mordialloc Part 3

Mulgrave Part 4

Narracan Part 4

Nepean Part 2

Narre Warren North Part 3

Narre Warren South Part 3

Niddrie Part 3

Northcote Part 5

Oakleigh Part 4

Pakenham Part 2

Pascoe Vale Part 5

Point Cook Part 3

Prahran Part 3

Preston Part 5

Richmond Part 2

Ringwood Part 2

Rowville Part 2

Sandringham Part 2

St Albans Part 4

Sunbury Part 3

Sydenham Part 4

Tarneit Part 4

Thomastown Part 5

Warrandyte Part 2

Werribee Part 3

Williamstown Part 4

Yan Yean Part 4

Melbourne area seats - by Legislative Council regions 

Western Metropolitan (includes 0 marginal metropolitan)

Footscray Part 5

Kororoit Part 5

Laverton Part 5

Niddrie Part 3

Point Cook Part 3

St Albans Part 4

Sunbury Part 3

Sydenham Part 4

Tarneit Part 4

Werribee Part 3

Williamstown Part 4

Northern Metropolitan (includes 4 marginal metropolitan)

Broadmeadows Part 5

Brunswick Part 2

Essendon Part 4

Greenvale Part 5

Kalkallo Part 5

Melbourne Part 2

Northcote Part 5 (but marginal)

Pascoe Vale Part 5

Preston Part 5

Richmond Part 2

Thomastown Part 5

North Eastern Metropolitan (includes 7 marginal metropolitan)

Bayswater Part 2

Box Hill Part 2

Bulleen Part 2

Bundoora Part 4

Croydon Part 2

Eltham Part 3

Glen Waverley Part 2

Ivanhoe Part 3

Mill Park Part 5

Ringwood Part 2

Warrandyte Part 2

South Eastern Metropolitan (includes 2 marginal metropolitan)

Berwick Part 2

Carrum Part 3

Clarinda Part 4

Cranbourne Part 3

Dandenong Part 5

Frankston Part 3

Mordialloc Part 3

Mulgrave Part 4

Narre Warren North Part 3

Narre Warren South Part 3

Rowville Part 2

Southern Metropolitan (includes 6 marginal metropolitan)

Albert Park Part 3

Ashwood Part 2

Bentleigh Part 3

Brighton Part 2

Caulfield Part 2

Hawthorn Part 2

Kew Part 2

Malvern Part 4

Oakleigh Part 4

Prahran Part 3

Sandringham Part 2

Eastern Victoria (includes 6 marginal metropolitan)

Bass Part 2

Evelyn Part 2

Hastings Part 2

Monbulk Part 3

Mornington Part 2

Narracan Part 4

Nepean Part 2

Pakenham Part 2

Note: Unlisted seats are regional

Northern Victoria (includes 1 marginal metropolitan)

Eildon Part 2

Yan Yean Part 4

Note: Unlisted seats are regional

Western Victoria (includes 1 marginal metropolitan)

Melton Part 2

Note: Unlisted seats are regional 

Have you read all items in this series? You will need to for today's item to make sense. If not see them here: 

How to win votes with public transport in 2022

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 1 Metropolitan overview

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 3 Less marginal seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 4 Safer seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 5 Safest seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 6 Summary (this one)

NOTE: This item may be updated nearer the 2022 state election if interesting facts about seats and candidates come to hand. 

TT #152: Introducing Melbourne's 2022 updated frequent network maps

The Public Transport Victoria website has many maps showing various parts of the public transport network. Whether it's trains, trams, individual bus routes and everything operating in a local government area you can find them. 

These maps are good for indicating the existence of some service.  But we don't know how good it is or if it is very useful. This is because there is no distinction between buses or trains that run a few trips a day and those that run every ten minutes. Both get the same uniformly thin line on the map even though their role in the network are vastly different. 

For years I've been making frequent network maps. These highlight the widely useful parts of the network. If you value having good all-day public transport access you will want to live or set up business near one (or preferably several) frequent routes or lines. 

Frequency maps highlight well and poorly serviced areas. This makes them a great tool for advocacy as shortfalls can easily be seen. Especially in this state election year (Multi-part seat by seat 2022 Vic election guide here). Currently Melbourne sits between the poorly served Brisbane and the much better served Sydney in the proportion of people near frequent service. The just-released Committee for Melbourne Benchmarking Melbourne Report put the proportion of Melburnians near frequent public transport at just 22% (page 35). 

Expanding the frequent network would be the single biggest thing you could do to improve public transport in Melbourne. It would dwarf the Metro Tunnel and even rival the Suburban Rail Loop in its overall impact. All in a fraction of the implementation time and at less cost. 

However service aspects got little attention as the government favoured 'big build' infrastructure projects instead. But with more grade separations and the Metro Tunnel coming online in the next few years, now is the time to 'switch to service' so that infrastructure can deliver all its designed benefits. Frequent network maps can be a powerful tool for assessing where we are and setting priorities. In many cases there are opportunities for 'quick wins' where relatively few added trips with trains, trams and buses we already have, can greatly expand the frequent network. 

My early frequent network maps from 2010 were fixed documents. You couldn't zoom in or out. Neither could you select which modes you wanted or what frequency cut-off you wanted to see.      

Online interactive maps don't have these issues. I started with making a Monday - Friday frequent network map in April 2019. This shows the places and routes with frequent peak and interpeak daytime service. Learn more about this here.

Frequent nework maps - daytime

Genuinely useful public transport requires good service all week. Many routes (including most SmartBuses) run frequently on weekdays but not weekends. Still, even for buses, there are still some frequent weekend routes and corridors. Most notably on Saturdays with a drop-off on Sundays. Hence for the true picture you need maps for all seven days. I first provided them here along with comments that may be useful. 

Maps for each day of the week are also below. The top left box opens a menu where you can select options by mode (bus train or tram) and longest wait (10, 15 or 20 minutes). Do this if the default misses out modes you want and to check what frequency you want to show. The right box opens up a bigger version for easier viewing.   

Melbourne public transport frequent network Monday - Friday (~7am - 7pm) 

Note: Peak frequencies are usually better or similar to interpeak frequencies. In a few cases they are not, eg counterpeak trains between Greensborough and Eltham with >40 min gaps. This is why the map shows the 20 minute service terminating at Greensborough. 

Melbourne public transport frequent network Saturday (~11am - 6pm)




Melbourne public transport frequent network Sunday (~11am - 6pm)



Most recent update to maps: March 2024

What's still running at 10pm?

So far we've only discussed daytime service. Evening service is critical for those in essential and service industries whose work often happens at night and on weekends, the precise time when services often cease or become less frequent. As an example, few local Melbourne bus routes run much after 9pm. This is why I created The Network at 10 pm maps to show those that do. Again separate maps by day show the variations over the week. Because service is so sparse I've added lower frequency options like 30 and 60 minutes so you can see areas with some 10pm service. 

During normal service hours, the network's lowest service is mostly found around 10pm on a Sunday. Use Sunday's 10pm map (screenshot near beginning) if you're interested in all week frequent service, day and night as this is generally a 'worst case'. The main exceptions here are some train lines (Sunbury, Craigieburn, Upfield, Mernda, Hurstbridge, Pakenham, Sandringham) that still run on archaic every 40 minute Sunday morning timetables.    

 Melbourne public transport 10pm network: Monday - Friday

Note: Several routes have after 10pm service on Friday evenings. Some even operate all night as part of the Night Network. These are not shown above. These routes also operate until late on Saturday and are shown on Saturday's map below.

Melbourne public transport 10pm network: Saturday

Note: This map generally also applies on public holidays where a Saturday timetable operates. The exceptions are some routes where 10pm and later service only runs on Saturdays (including some Night Network routes). See PTV timetables for footnotes. 

Melbourne public transport 10pm network: Sunday

Note: This map also applies on public holidays where a Sunday timetable operates, eg Good Friday and Christmas Day. Selecting the Stations and Maximum Waits tab colour codes stations by maximum wait 7am - midnight Monday - Sunday. 

Maps last updated October 2023

Recent upgrades (but still much more to do)  

These maps were created in 2019. They have been updated to incorporate all known service changes to this month. These have generally extended the frequent network to more days of the week in more places. The after 10pm maps have also changed, especially if you select the 30 or 60 minute frequency option for buses. 

Key changes include:  

* 2020 Endeavour Hill network. This improved operating hours span and Sunday service. The individual routes are still not frequent but overlaps eg 843 and 845 common corridor justify inclusion on some maps.   

* 202 Melbourne university shuttle. Provided an extra 10 minute frequent service across the inner north on weekdays. This added an extra line on the weekday frequent network map. 

* Werribee, Williamstown and Frankston train upgrade. A much needed January 2021 upgrade that simplified routing and cut maximum waits from 30-40 to 20 minutes on all days and nights of the week. This has meant a big expansion of 20 minute service on the after 10pm maps. 

* Transdev network timetable reform in 2021. This was an economical 'oily rag' timetable change with quieter routes (eg 603 and 604) having less service (including deletion from some maps) and busier routes getting more service. The major upgrades are in the Doncaster area with four SmartBuses now still running at 10pm on Sunday evenings (instead of none before). There are also changes to the weekend daytime maps with the number of individual bus routes offering 15 min or better 7 day service rising from two to four (something that remains much rarer in Melbourne than Sydney, Perth and even Brisbane).      

* Night Network revamp. The thrust of this late 2021 change was to simplify services by running regular bus routes all night instead of having confusing special Night Bus routes. This affects service on the Saturday 10pm map as some local routes that finished around 9pm are running later (indeed all night for Night Network routes). The same happens on Friday night but the 10pm weeknight map leaves these out.   

* Tram 82 weekday frequency upgrade. A welcome cost-effective recent improvement that added this popular tram route to the 15 minute network on weekdays (it was already there on weekends). 

* Craigieburn network revamp April 2022. Four routes (528, 529, 533, 537) upgraded to every 20 min weekdays in conjunction with other local coverage improvements. 

* Fishermans Bend routes 235 and 237 got upgraded from 20-30 min to every 10 min off-peak weekdays in October 2022. This was followed by weekend and evening improvements a year later. 

* Box Hill/Deakin upgrades May 2023. Included upgrade of Box Hill - Monash part of 733 to run every 15 min on weekdays and 767 to run every 20 min weekdays. Also some weekend improvements. 

* Deakin University bus upgrade October 2023. 903 rerouted via Deakin Uni. Some Saturday trips added on eastern section. 201 university shuttle improved to every 15 min with 768 and 281 Box Hill - Deakin portions deleted. 

* Fishermans Bend upgrades October 2023. 235 given weekend service every 20 min. Also extended hours including every 20 min until midnight 7 nights of week. 237 also gained late evening service on weeknights every 20 min. Noteworthy for the frequency maps is that the 235 becomes the only single bus route that can claim 20 minute or better service 7 nights of the week. 

* Tram 3a abolition October 2023. The weekend only Tram 3a now operates as Tram 3 all week. 

* Route 501 Craigieburn - Donnybrook express commenced January 2024. Every 15 min M-F peak, 20 min M-F daytime, 40 min weekend. Daytime only.

* Route 475 Diggers Rest - Sunbury commenced March 2024. Every 20 min weekday, 40 min weekend.   

The future for more frequent service

What does the immediate future hold? April 2022 will see some welcome upgrades in the Craigieburn area including 20 minute interpeak service on some popular local routes. This will mean more lines on the 20 minute weekday map. Currently, apart from the train, the only route in the area with 20 minute or better weekday service is the north-south 541 bus. 

Something else to look out for is Fishermans Bend. A route like the 237 is only half-hourly interpeak currently. The government has budgeted some frequency upgrades in the area. So I wouldn't be surprised if this makes an appearance on at least the weekday 20 minute map fairly soon.  

Apart from that we don't know. There however remains significant 'low-hanging fruit'. Possibly most notable is the 201 (every 20 minutes) and 768 (every 40 min approx) which, if combined, could deliver a simplified and more frequent 10 - 15 minute express shuttle between Box Hill and Deakin University.  

More complex to do but no less important are some of our busier corridors with closely spaced destinations. Most notably Footscray - Highpoint which really needs a 7 day 10 minute frequency on a simple route. I discussed opportunities for the somewhat overlapping and complex 223 and 406 here. Better connectivity across the middle-north is also desirable due to popular destinations like Coburg, Preston, Northland and Heidelberg being not far apart. Again a 10 minute frequency on a simple single route is very economical on service kilometres as mentioned here (Murray Rd MegaBus).   

When you look at the 20 minute weekday map you'll see a big service 'black hole' east of Ringwood Station to Belgrave and Lilydale. This is because of infrequent interpeak trains (only every 30 minutes). Oddly weekend service is better at every 20 minutes. Fixing this anomaly so weekday midday trains ran as frequently as weekends is high priority, low cost and politically savvy (due to many marginal seats). Plus it would deliver an all-day frequent 10 minute service to Ringwood, serving another clutch of marginal seats. More here. 

As to these and others, the May 2022 state budget will be the thing to watch, along with various subsequent election campaign commitments that may be made. Preferably lifted from the list here! 

Comments on the above maps, including any errors, are welcome and can be left below. 

Timetable Tuesday index

Election 2022 special: Public transport upgrades by seat - Part 5 The safest seats

Here’s the last of our election special seat by seat run through. It covers the safest seats with over a 20% margin. Mostly in Melbourne’s north and west, all are held by Labor. While the boundaries and electorate names may have changed over decades, Labor’s hold on them hasn’t, even during landslide Coalition victories in the 1970s and 1990s. In fact some have become more Labor as they became more urban.

Such safety can cause parties, especially when in government, to take such seats for granted. MPs may rarely attend to constituents concerns or even live near the seat they represent. This is unlike marginal seat MPs whose job is on the line if they are not visible in the community or winning funding for things in their seat. With the odd personal scandal, a tired on-the-nose government, a recession, some local issues and a strong local independent candidate even safe seats can produce savage electoral backlashes, especially in by-elections.

Political party membership has shrunk and became less representative. Those remaining in parties tend to the extremes, whereas Australian voters tend to the centre, with the latter aided by our compulsory preferential voting system. Politics has became professionalised with the most common background for new MPs being political staffer, communications adviser or similar. 

Increasingly the personal backgrounds, experiences and tastes of MPs can diverge from voters in the seats they represent. Labor has a problem with middle-class MPs disconnected from working class voters in some of its suburban seats. Meanwhile the average Coalition MP is richer, whiter and more likely to be male than the population in seats it needs to win, again in suburban areas. Parties demand absolute loyalty that deters independent thinkers from nominating while parliamentary votes may be based more on tactics than what members actually believe.

Safe seats can become the currency of backroom factional deals with horsetrading over the heads of ordinary branch members. A celebrity candidate can be imposed by party head office onto a safe seat for which they have no local connection. This is a particular problem for Labor as its party organisation is more centralised and more able to impose its will than the Liberal and National party organisations. While generating wider excitement, such candidates imposed by head offices or faction leaders can demoralise local branch members who have their own political ambitions.

Imposed candidates can lessen volunteer morale. Fewer of an already diminishing pool of party members are willing to stand at polling booths and letterbox for an out of area candidate they did not support. Labor was able to temporarily boost numbers through superior field organisation in 2014 and its non ‘pub test passing’ ‘Red Shirts’ scheme. However in the long term this cannot replace parties having active (not moribund) local branches brimming with active socially normal members reasonably representative of and connected to local communities.

All this means that despite the heading no seat is truly ‘safe’ despite how strong the numbers look today. With that out of the way, let’s get on with our run-through.

Labor safest (20%+ margin) 

Kalkallo      (ALP 20.4) 

New northern suburb growth area seat based around relatively established Craigieburn and new leapfrog-style housing development further north around Donnybrook and Beveridge with few local services. Craigieburn is a lower income area popular with people from India and the Middle East. Average incomes and workforce participation tend to be higher on the new estates where a greater proportion of homes are owner occupied and require a particular income to qualify for a mortgage. However as the population ages the area can degentrify over a 20 or 30 year period with falling incomes relative to other areas, as seen in nearby Roxburgh Park. While it is hard to see the seat going to any non-Labor candidate, there will likely still be an expectation to deliver with regards to local jobs, infrastructure and services, key of which is likely to be rail electrification north of Craigieburn.

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgraded bus route 511 and additional routes to catch up with new estate growth. 

* Further bus frequency and span upgrades in Craigieburn and Craigieburn West to reflect the area's favourable demographics, population density and high propensity to use buses. These could deliver maximum waits of 20 minutes 7 days versus 40 minutes currently.

* Service upgrades for V/Line trains serving stations between Donnybrook and Seymour. 

* Maximum waits on the Craigieburn line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Off-peak daytime Craigieburn train line frequencies improved from 20 to 10 minutes. 

* Rail electrification extended to Beveridge. Possibly in a package that connects Roxburgh Park to Upfield. 

  

Preston (ALP 20.7 - v GRN)              

A left-wing inner to middle suburban seat with the Liberal candidate receiving less than 20% of the primary vote last time. Much housing and settlement in the seat occurred post WWII, particularly portions away from the train and tram lines. Popular with migrants working in blue collar jobs. Roughly speaking the south is more gentrified with greater Green support while the north is more solidly Labor. Current MP is Robin Scott who was involved in the Adem Somyurek affair. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 12: Tram service refresh.

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Off-peak daytime Mernda train line frequencies improved from 20 to 10 minutes. 

* High quality better than SmartBus style service on Bell St/Murray Rd between Coburg, Preston, Northland and Heidelberg running turn-up-and-go service 7 days per week over long operating hours. 

* Upgrades to the area's large number of buses running every 22 - 26 minutes to every 20 min to connect evenly with trains. 

* 7 day service and longer hours on bus routes 525 and 558. 

 

Pascoe Vale (ALP 22.1%)

A varied seat in Melbourne's middle-north. Includes socially conservative Catholic middle class areas to the west, a significant middle-eastern population to the north and north-east and more secular Anglo-based population in parts of the south (basically those wanting bigger houses or are priced out of Brunswick). Gentrification in the latter areas has put the seat on the radar of The Greens with them outpolling the Liberals last time. However 2018's result was notable for a strong challenge from a local independent who took many votes from both major parties. Thus Labor's position might not be as strong as the margin above may indicate. Current member is Lizzie Blandthorn, prominent in Labor's SDA faction. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Upfield and Craigieburn lines cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Craigieburn line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

 * Upfield line upgrade including an extension to Roxburgh Park and duplication of portions to allow improved reliability and a 10 minute frequency. 

 * High quality better than SmartBus style service on Bell St/Murray Rd between Coburg, Preston, Northland and Heidelberg running turn-up-and-go service 7 days per week over long operating hours. 

 

Greenvale (ALP 22.3%) 

Mostly lower income seat in Melbourne's outer north notable for its high Middle Eastern population, large households and low incomes, particularly in eastern portions such as Meadow Heights.  Area hit by 'hollowing out' of the economy, with reduced manufacturing and more insecure jobs. Roxburgh Park was established as a 'dream home' estate in the 1990s and has undergone significant degentrification since. Greenvale is the  seat's most affluent area with multi-garaged houses and blocks about double the size of elsewhere. Seat has undergone significant change due to growth in the area notably in Attwood and further north near Mickleham Rd. These areas have higher incomes than the older 1970s - 1990s suburbs to the east. Much of the seat is in (to be abolished) Yuroke currently represented by Ros Spence MP. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Improved bus network coverage and frequency. 

* Maximum waits on the Craigieburn line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Craigieburn line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

 

Dandenong (ALP 23.4%)         

A diverse low income south-eastern industrial seat that has ethnic and income characteristics more associated with Melbourne’s north and west. Vies with the newer Tarneit area as the centre of fast-growing Indian subcontinent communities in Melbourne. Before that it was home to many European migrants who came here to work in vehicle manufacturing and allied industries. Western part of seat has many with Asian or African heritage. While geograpically in Melbourne's south-east its demographic characteristics are more similar to areas in Melbourne's north and west. Centred on the Dandenong rail line its buses are often well-used but have had only minor service upgrades and network reform in the last 10 years.  Local MP is Gabrielle Williams. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 3: Pakenham/Cranbourne line more trains more often / maximum waits slashed.

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* All bus routes in area upgraded to operate 7 days per week with extended hours. 

* Large scale bus network review with simplified more direct routes, longer operating hours and doubled or tripled frequency on main routes in residential areas and high patronage local routes. 

* Reimagined bus network for Dandenong South to connect jobs to people. 

  

Laverton (ALP 24.0%)

A new seat created from the carve-up of seats in Melbourne’s middle west due to the redistribution that saw the deletion of Altona and the creation of more growth area seats. Stretching from Sunshine to Skeleton Creek, its people live near the seat's western and eastern edges with none in the middle at Laverton North. This is the seat's job-rich industrial area with notoriously poor public transport. Neighbourhoods range from 1960s era low income areas like Laverton and Sunshine West to new estates around Truganina. The latter is bisected by the Regional Rail Link (Geelong line) but no new stations have been opened since service commenced in 2015.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Bus network revamp in Laverton North with new routes connecting to surrounding residential areas and stations including Tarneit and Williams Landing. 

* 7 day service on bus route 414 and potential rerouting via Altona Gate Shopping Centre to improve connectivity for Laverton residents. 

* Merging of bus routes 428 and 429 into a single route providing a 7 day service every 20 minutes over longer operating hours in Sunshine South and west. This would double frequency compared to now.  

* Construction of new station at Truganina on the Geelong line.

* Reconfiguration of Geelong line services to provide an all-day seven day two tier service with maximum waits of 20 minutes. 

  

Kororoit (ALP 24.5%)

Diverse western suburbs seat including a mix of established and growth areas. Older and lower income population in Deer Park North, with more working middle-income earners around Caroline Springs. The previously large gap between there and Melton is now fast filling with new estates either side of the Western Fwy. Area has few local jobs so a high proportion need to commute long distances. Current member is Marlene Kairouz who gained more than triple the primary vote of her Liberal opponent in 2018. However she lost party preselection over the Adem Somyurek affair so will not be recontesting (as Labor anyway). 2022's Labor candidate will be RTBU secretary Luba Grigorovitch, who has long had political ambitions.   

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Upgrade Routes 420 and 460 to SmartBus services with longer hours, higher frequency and bus priority features. 

* Upgrade Routes 418 and 461 to operate longer hours with maximum waits of 20 minutes 7 days per week. 

 

Broadmeadows (ALP 25.2%)

A multicultural formerly manufacturing based seat containing some of Labor’s most loyal voters. Hit hard by the 1990s recession and tariff cuts resulting in large job losses and high unemployment. Newer jobs that have come along have typically been low paid and casual roles. The area remains with low labour force participation and contains some of the lowest household incomes in Melbourne. Long a migrant stronghold, Broadmeadows today is a strongly middle-eastern / Muslim seat. Previously represented by premier John Brumby its current member is Frank McGuire. The biggest threat to MPs in seats like Broadmeadows is not the electorate but party preselection. This has been the fate of Mr McGuire, with Labor opting to replace him with another candidate, possibly younger and with future senior ministerial potential.  

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Local bus network reform to enable a Coburg - Hadfield - Broadmeadows bus operating at least every 20 minutes. 

* Local bus reform to simplify buses in Dallas/Campbellfield, upgrade Route 532 from every 30 to every 20 min to mesh with trains and deliver 7 day service to residential area bus routes, most notably 531 & 538 in Campbellfield and 542 Oak Park.   

   

Mill Park (ALP 25.2%)

Includes 1980s development around Epping North and Mill Park, 2000s development around South Morang and new growth frontiers around Wollert. Popular with European and latterly Asian and middle eastern migrants and their children. Lower middle to middle class demographics with lower incomes at the Epping end. Very safe for Labor as Liberals are weak in the area and the seat is too old, too religious and too far north for secular inner-city Greens to hold much appeal. Locals remember to protracted battles to get the Epping line extended along an existing reservation a few kilometres to South Morang and then the longer distance to Mernda. Their success remains a template of how to succeed against sometimes indifferent governments. Further south the extension of the Route 86 tram has often been called for. The area received significant attention under the Cain government with various extensions in the 1980s. However the most recent occurred in 1995. Mill Park is currently represented by Lily D'Ambrosio MP.     

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Mernda line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

* New SmartBus style service along Epping Rd given the development, housing density and distance from other transport. 

* High quality east - west bus route from Epping Plaza to Greensborough via Childs Rd and Plenty Rd operating more frequent service and extended hours to replace complex Route 566 in area.

* Extension of Route 86 tram northwards to South Morang Station. It is likely that someone will advocate this during the campaign. 

* An additional branch from the Epping line at Lalor to Wollert may benefit the far western part of the seat. However there are potential issues with branching rail including potentially degraded frequency (or not implemented improvements) between Epping and Mernda. This may also come up during the campaign. 

  

Thomastown (ALP 27.4%)                  

Multicultural seat comprising postwar migrants and their offspring from southern Europe and more recently the middle east. Has two main regions - south and north. Southern areas around Thomastown have an ageing, low income demographic in 1960s-1970s houses and villas. Northern areas comprise recently built areas around Wollert with more younger families. Was pretty much Labor’s safest seat in the years when it was held by Bracks era transport minister Peter Batchelor and remains very safe today. With many having a manufacturing background, this is a working class constituency that has little time for the post-materialist Greens politics more prominent south of Bell St. Current member is Bronwyn Halfpenny.

 Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 8: Growth area logical extensions

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda line cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Mernda line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

* Some form of Wollert rapid transit providing frequent service with similar hours and frequencies to trains. An additional branch from the Epping line at Lalor to Wollert could benefit this seat. However there are potential issues with branching rail including potentially degraded frequency (or not implemented improvements) between Epping and Mernda. This may also come up during the campaign. 

* A direct and frequent Craigieburn - Wollert - Epping bus route to be introduced soon either as a precursor to Wollert rail or as a longer term bus rapid transit system.  

* Upgrade Route 559 to operate 7 days per week with longer hours. 

* Simplify and extend bus route 558 to operate to Campbellfield Shopping Centre

* Upgrade bus routes that are currently every 22 - 26 min to every 20 min to evenly connect with local trains (currently every 20 min). This to include routes such as 555 and 556. 

 

Footscray (ALP 28.7%)  

One of Melbourne's most multicultural seats with strong Asian and African influences around Footscray but a white young professional vibe around Yarraville attracted by lower house prices than east of the Yarra. Massively increasing housing density around Highpoint has outstripped fast, frequent and direct public transport connections with timetables hardly changing in years. Low income, low car ownership and high public transport usage around Footscray with the reverse at locations away from it. Footscray's station area has seen significant transformation with regional rail upgrades. Historically it has been surrounded by underused land parcels but some have seen some recent dense development. Opportunity exists for more of this as industry moves further out. Current Labor member is Katie Hall MP who will be recontesting. 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 4: Geelong and Melton weekend trains more often / waits halved (or better).

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Sunbury line (as far as Watergardens) cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Off-peak daytime Sunbury train line frequencies improved from 20 to 10 minutes as far as Watergardens. 

* New direct north-south Highpoint - Ashley St - Tottenham bus route to connect fast growing high density residential area near Highpoint to their nearest train. 

* Further upgrades to Route 82 tram frequency including 7 day 10 minute frequency. 

* Bus route 414 upgraded to operate 7 days with longer operating hours.  

 

Northcote (ALP 33.2% or 1.7% against Green)

A trendy tertiary educated inner suburban seat seen as a hot prospect for The Greens with Liberals sometimes battling to get double digit support. The Greens actually won the seat in a 2017 by-election in a contest marked by the absence of a Liberal candidate and a clutch of minor parties and independents. The by-election was due to the death of incumbent MP Labor's Fiona Richardson. However Northcote reverted to Labor in 2018 in an election marked by the return of a Liberal candidate and fewer independents. While Northcote is very safe from Labor's point of view as regards to it falling into Liberal hands, it is marginal with regards to it returning a Green member. While Greens are thought of as left-wing and more likely to support Labor than the Coalition there can be cases (especially on government accountability matters) where they may side with the opposition when Labor is in power. Current member is Kat Theophanous. 

 

Melbourne-wide service initiatives (see Part 1 for details)

* 6: SmartBus 2.0 / SmartBus more often to more places

* 7: Strategic bus connections / filling the missing gaps

* 9: Weekend bus boosts

* 10: Cheap & cheerful bus upgrades / Many upgrades in many places

* 12: Tram service refresh

Potential additional local initiatives (not in Part 1 above)

* Maximum waits on the Mernda and Hustbridge (to Eltham) lines cut from 30 - 40 to 20 min by improving evening and Sunday morning train frequencies. 

* Mernda and Hurstbridge (to at least Greensborough) line service upgrade from every 20 to every 10 min off-peak. 

* Route 508 upgraded to SmartBus with higher frequency and longer operating hours to provide an improved east-west connection. 

 

Conclusion

Even though these are (mostly) Melbourne's safest seats, this doesn't mean that the party holding them can take them for granted. Indeed seats like Pascoe Vale and Northcote are less safe than two party numbers might indicate. Also, as mentioned before, their voters count as much as any other seat for tight Legislative Council results. 

Have you read all items in this series? You will need to for today's item to make sense. If not see them here: 

How to win votes with public transport in 2022

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 1 Metropolitan overview

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 2 The marginals

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 3 Less marginal seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 4 Safer seats

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrades by seat - Part 5 Safest seats (this one)

Election 2022 special: Public transport service upgrade by seat - Part 6 Summary

NOTE: This item may be updated nearer the 2022 state election if interesting facts about seats and candidates come to hand.