Tuesday, November 12, 2024

TT 195: The new Route 800 bus timetable


Most of Princes Hwy between Oakleigh and Dandenong will get 7 day buses for the first time in over 30 years under a new timetable to commence on Sunday 24th November 2024. The new timetable for the popular Route 800 between Chadstone and Dandenong will also feature tripled Saturday service and a rearrangement of weekday trips to extend its finish time to after 9pm. 

Minister's announcement here with news coverage here and here. PTV's write-up on the upgraded service is here. Timetables for both the existing and new services are available on their website.

The upgrade was funded in the May 2024 Victorian state budget following a 2 year community campaign by #FixDandyBuses (then as #Fix800Bus). 

Service features

What does the upgraded Route 800 service feature?

* Minor route changes for improved consistency and directness 

At the moment a few trips do a loop via Springvale cemetery. That lightly-used variation will cease. All trips will stay on the highway. The PTV website item advises that a signalised pedestrian crossing is available for those who need to cross Princes Hwy to reach the cemetery. The cemetery deviation actually has a bit of history, it effectively replacing the Spring Vale cemetery branch railway that was electrified in 1922 but with services ceasing in 1950. 

There will also be a small loop at the Chadstone end with buses operating clockwise. This was done to slightly speed trips.  

* Boosted weekend service with longer hours and higher frequency

This is the big reason for the upgrade. It seemed ridiculous that such a major route operating between the south-east's biggest shopping centre and its major suburban industrial centre via its busiest highway have such a limited service. That is no Sunday service and a sparse Saturday service including short hours and up to 120 minute afternoon gaps (see Timetable Tuesday No 2 for background).

The new timetable increases the number of Saturday trips from 16 to 53 (both directions counted). More than a tripling, that's enough to buy a 30 minute frequency during most of the day (approx 9am - 5pm) with a drop to every 40 minutes before and after. The 1 to 2 hour waits have been made history by this timetable. 

How do Chadstone retail workers fare? The new timetable has early Saturday arrivals at 7:45, 8:25, 9:05, 9:35, 10:05, 10:35 am. Not perfect for those with a 9am start (Chadstone's listed start time) but setting timetables requires a lot of jiggling and you can't please everyone unless you make the service frequent. In the afternoon from Chadstone the 30 minute service continues until 5:16pm. Then the 40 minute pattern takes over at 5:56pm. Those with a nominal 5pm finish might find that 5:16pm is too early and might have preferred that the 30 minute pattern continued a bit longer. The Chadstone website lists a 9pm closing time for Saturday. This is supported with last buses leaving at 9:16 and 9:56pm.  

Sunday contains only two fewer trips than Saturday (51 versus 53). There is again a 30 minute midday frequency with a fall to every 40 minutes earlier and later. The first arrivals at Chadstone are 8:00, 8:40, 9:10, 9:40am, with the last suiting a 10am start. There is an earlier finish with the last trip being 8:15pm ex-Dandenong as opposed to 8:50pm on Saturdays and 9:46pm on weekdays. Last finishes from the Chadstone direction are a bit more even across the week.

The times are not the same but this timetable having the same Saturday and Sunday frequencies is a really good feature. Especially on a route like the 800 that serves Melbourne's biggest suburban retail centre. The 30 minute service is a clockface 'memory' timetable - unlike the 40 minute frequencies so common across Melbourne's buses. On this the 800 timetable compares well with recent weekend upgrades for other popular shopping centre routes like 733 and 767, which got a 30 minute frequency on Saturday but only a 40 minute service on Sunday. 

* A rejigged weekday timetable with a later finish

Like all timetables this one was done to a budget. Some judicious nipping and tucking was required to keep the number of weekday trips the same as now but spread operating hours. For example there's a 40 minute early am weekday frequency towards Dandenong and an earlier finish of the 20 minute frequency from Chadstone. The trade-off is that you get a 2 or 3 hour later finish at night, with last trips  from there departing after 9:30pm.

Another win is for those finishing work at Dandenong. The current timetable finishes its 20 minute service at 5:08pm, with an approximately half hourly service until the last bus at 6:32pm. The new timetable keeps the 20 minute service going until 6:18pm, with an approximate 40 minute frequency until 9:46pm.  



Bigger than Metro Tunnel for some?

That might sound ridiculous but take another look. It's only after you play with the journey planner for some common trips at various times do you realise how much time better buses can save.

There couldn't be any better case than the upgraded Route 800 with this before/after example:

Supposing you wanted to go from Noble Park North to Chadstone, leaving at 10am on a Sunday. Not necessarily an uncommon trip. And there's a direct highway linking the two if you're driving. 

BEFORE: If it was this Sunday (ie before the upgraded Route 800 starts) you would be twiddling your thumbs until 10:53am. Then you'd walk 19 minutes to the nearest bus that runs on a Sunday (the 811, once bus an hour). You'd alight at Springvale station (passing close to Noble Park station but the journey planner doesn't recognise this as an interchange). Then, hoping there weren't replacement buses, you'd get a train to Oakleigh. From there you'd have to work out which bus is next to get to Chadstone. If you get all this right you will eventually arrive at 12:01pm. That's 68 minutes from when you started walking, or 121 minutes from when you decided you'd want to go. 

AFTER: From Sunday next week you'll have the 800 available. Board it at 10:02am and alight Chadstone at 10:40am. Simple. Depending on how you measure it a time saving of 30 min minimum (but potentially over an hour). 

Sunday trips to Dandenong are also way faster. In this case trip times fall from 45-50 minutes (again walk + bus + train according to the journey planner) to 20 minutes as direct access will be possible via the Route 800 (click below for better view).  



What about that Metro Tunnel comparison? The (then) premier's media release mentions a travel time cut of 25 minutes each way (ie 50 minutes return) for some trips. But there are people in areas like the south-east who don't often travel to the CBD and more often travel locally. Not to mention the issue of getting to the station to access the Metro Tunnel (which the upgraded 800 can help with). So, yes, for some the 7 day 800 boost is indeed more important in their lives than the Metro Tunnel. But there will also be network-effect cases where both work together to slash travel times.  

Weekend patronage boom expected

Route 800 is the sort of bus route whose patronage should respond well to service increases like these. That is because it is direct, serves major 7 day destinations, goes past a lot of jobs and has unique coverage of households with high social needs that don't all own cars. It is also generally the case that patronage / service elasticity is higher for off-peak than peak services, with all of the 800's extra trips being the former. 

September - November 2022 usage was 6436 passenger boardings for that quarter (DTP figures supplied). Multiplying that by 4 gives about 25 000 trips annually. Note that this is with the current sparse Saturday-only timetable involving 16 trips per weekend each way. 

This timetable lifts weekend service by 86 trips to 102 trips. That is an increase by 530% or to more than 6 times now. Even if usage was less than 1:1 elastic you might still get up to 100 000 trips annually just from the higher weekend patronage alone.

To see if such a result was plausible I checked other direct routes that already had substantial weekend service. The 472 (Moonee Ponds - Footscray - Williamstown) and 893 (Dandenong - Hallam - Cranbourne) are of similar length to the 800. Both achieved about 100 000 annual weekend boardings in 2022 (extrapolating from quarterly figures) despite both being much less productive than the 800 (even on weekdays when service levels are most comparable). For example 21, 33 and 20 weekday boardings per hour for 472, 800 and 893 respectively. 

While somewhat longer (23.5 versus 18km) the 767 was very like the 800 on a boardings per kilometre basis. In 2022 this achieved about 200 000 annual weekend boardings (noting that this was before the October 2023 Route 903 realignment via Deakin which will likely have affected 767 usage). The 767 serves three major suburban centres versus the 800's two but the 767 has significant indirect portions and weaker catchment demographics at its southern end.  

All things considered the upgraded Route 800 is bound to be a patronage winner given its catchment and usage of other comparable routes. And weekend patronage growth should be so high that it brings all-week usage of Route 800 up by at least 10 and possibly 20%, even if one conservatively assumes no increase in weekday usage (despite its overall better timetable).     


Summary and future

The upgraded Route 800 is a welcome major addition to 7 day public transport in Melbourne's south-east.

It will help more get to work, connect people to opportunities and serve large parts of south-east Melbourne that previously lacked 7 day transport. When the trains are disrupted some will use the 800 as a relatively quick way to get from Oakleigh to Dandenong. That adds a redundancy and robustness  that the current network does not have. Monash Clayton students living in parts of Noble Park North or Dandenong will also find the boosted 800 a handy time-saver. 

Longer term I can see the 800 becoming even better. Eg to every 15 min weekdays and 20 min weekends. Even wider operating hours could benefit cinema goers and late workers. Operating the bus in the main traffic lane might speed travel on parts of Princes Hwy. There may also be scope, with other network reforms, to reroute the 800 down more of Princes Hwy to be nearer Dandenong Market and the main shopping precinct. 

The 800's likely success may raise political interest in further needed Dandenong area bus upgrades. Initially these could be a basic 7 day service on routes without it like 802, 804 and 814. Then once that's been done strengthening the network such as half-hourly all week frequencies on routes like 850 (Dandenong - Glen Waverley) and corridors like Heatherton Rd should pay patronage dividends.  

For now though it's time to celebrate this achievement and use the bus as much as possible when the upgraded service starts in less than two weeks on 24 November.  

Index to other Timetable Tuesday items 

Thursday, November 07, 2024

Victorian transport policy power list for 2024


Anyone who wants to see things done in transport needs to be interested in power and influence. 

Government is about making choices. For every choice that is made a hundred are not. 

Power is the ability to make, steer, amend or block such choices.

Influence is 'having a seat at the table' or being considered when choices are made or contemplated. 

If it is known that 'party X will not wear decision Y' and this is brought up as a reason for not doing Y then this indicates that X's influence is substantial. It might not even be necessary for X to ask that something be done (or not done) if the Overton Window shuts out anything that could be detrimental to X's interest. Change that threatens party X's position can be particularly confronting if it affects what they see as a normal right, habit or lifestyle rather than a special perk.   

X can just as easily be a real or imagined class of people (eg car drivers, train users or traffic engineers) as much as a specific person. Consideration extended might involve people not having to pay for a scarce private good (like 'free' parking) on public property. Or not proceeding with a simpler and more frequent train timetable that was generally beneficial but which forced some commuters in some marginal seats to change trains. With several Frankston line seats on thin margins, this fate befell the cancelled 2015 Metro timetable. However the same government, emboldened by its strong 2018 electoral result, implemented features of it in the 2021 Metro timetable without undue controversy.  

Some sectors appear to have better safety cultures than others, for instance rail engineering or aviation versus road engineering. A more flexible stance might be taken where something (like tram stop accessibility) is a legal requirement but the power of those requesting compliance is lower than the will of the government which has alternative uses for the billions of dollars this would entail. Offences like 'white collar' crime, culpable driving causing death or, until recent law tightening, industrial manslaughter may attract lighter or less custodial penalties than other crimes.  

These and other examples show that power and influence are not distributed equally.

And they cannot be gauged just by looking at organisation charts. 

Much is informal, behind the scenes and undocumented. 

Organisations can gain standing by having their alumni on boards, as staffers and as executives of other bodies. In this cloistered environment it is generally known what the other influential players think with their perspectives accommodated.   

On the other hand some nominally senior bodies can have less standing than one might think. Nominally strong bodies can be disorganised, constrained or ignored. Other smaller, newer or less known actors may have more influence. 

There can sometimes be power vacuums with policy anarchy the result. This can either be bemoaned (by the cerebral academic and planning class who wished that authorities heeded them more and had more clout) or deftly exploited (by the more outcome-oriented policy entrepreneur class). 

Power and influence are transient, dancing around like shadows created by a flickering flame.  

Any attempt to measure them by an outsider won't be current or accurate. They can be highly location, time or issue dependent. And some powerful organisations (eg banks, super funds, developers, universities and even racing clubs) can make decisions that greatly affect land use and transport in this city. 

Still, at least a relative quantification should be tried. Below is my crude attempt. Click for a clearer view. More power or influence is near the top. Government bodies are in white, non government in black. As the latter are often modally based I've tried to put them on a left-right axis of sustainability. 




As noted above I've left off most non-transport bodies. However they can be important in setting agendas. An example was the CFMEU whose big success was getting thousands of jobs for their members made a part of Labor's 2014 platform. This was Project 10 000 (jobs) which became the Big Build (sold to the public as removing level crossings and building major rail and road projects).

RTBU and TWU haven't been so successful at this given public transport service per capita has actually declined on our busiest modes. Despite a 'Big Service' agenda for train, tram and bus being hugely transformative. However they are good at getting ex-leaders into Labor seats, joining others in a section of Labor Unity (TWU) or Industrial Left (RTBU). TWU can also claim success in convincing the government to decouple the bus driver role from any responsibility for fare collection (notably myki top-ups) during the pandemic, with driver safety a lobbying point. This made paying harder for passengers and led to the government losing control of fare compliance on buses (though DTP denies this, claiming high validation rates in its annual report).  CFMEU has lately had major internal issues but willingness of the government to stimulate housing construction may give some hope to members as major transport infrastructure loses its shine.  

More planning rather than transport advocates, YIMBY (Yes In My Back Yard) has risen to prominence in sympathy with Gen Y and Millennial concerns over housing affordability. These advocates for denser housing had a huge year in 2024, rising rapidly in public profile and influencing the government to plan for and incentivise dense housing near stations. The government's been saying the right things but has yet to commit to commensurate improvements in public transport frequency and directness to better connect new designated housing areas.  

I've left off some central government institutions like VictrackPT Ombudsman, Auditor-General and Treasury. I'm guessing some in the latter would privately disagree with some government projects like the Suburban Rail Loop and would likely favour road pricing. I also didn't include think tanks like the Grattan Institute since they dismantled their Transport and Cities Unit. That got a lot of media for their opposition to the Suburban Rail Loop but it didn't shift the state government's stance on it one iota. 

Also omitted are unorganised passengers, though to be fair they were more vocal 15 years ago when train reliability was poor, there was less working from home and a letters column in mX newspaper. But if I was to plot it I would rank weekday peak CBD commuters as having vastly more influence than non-peak travellers (including  mostly migrant evening and weekend casual workers). Proof of this can be seen in the politics of the 2010 election and what got done. That is an improvement in reliability (and to some extent frequency) for peak commuters but, especially for others in locations like Broadmeadows, Coburg and Epping, negligible improvements in off-peak and evening frequencies, which remain low. On the other hand regional and outer Melbourne weekday commuters have done well with improved V/Line frequencies, as has the overnight weekend economy with 'Night Network' commencing in 2016 (as an implementation of 2014's 'Homesafe' policy). 

I ranked the Department of Transport and Planning quite low even though it is, on-paper, the central department for the portfolio. Why? I just think it punches below its weight notwithstanding (until recently) high portfolio staffing growth. The big projects get snaffled by other bodies while potentially significant ones like bus network reform or tram accessibility hardly get funded. Some time ago the State Ombudsman confirmed earlier media reports that the then DoT was left out of initial Suburban Rail Loop planning. In 2021 the Auditor-General found DTP had no overall transport plan to have custodianship over. DTP's public profile is also low with its soon to depart Secretary leaving most media to the minister, spin-off delivery agencies or unnamed officials quoted in news articles. 

DTP/DoT's weakness is not confined to the current government; James Murphy's The Making and Unmaking of East-West Link suggested similar a decade ago for major projects. The result, he wrote, is a contested and anarchic policy environment open for 'policy entrepreneurs' within and even outside government can have out-sized influence profile. Nature abhors a vacuum after all.

What do you think about this list? Should others be on it? Or are certain bodies more or less influential than I've indicated? Comments are welcome and can be left below. 

Tuesday, November 05, 2024

TT 194: Geelong's new train timetable - Good, bad & ugly



The latest V/Line train timetables to come out are for services to Geelong, Warrnambool and Ballarat. Starting December 1, they honour the government's (much-needed) 2022 election promise to boost Geelong line weekend service from every 40 to every 20 min. As well as other changes that I'll mention later. Today I'll just discuss the Geelong line with particular reference to the growth area stations along it (Waurn Ponds, Marshall, Wyndham Vale and Tarneit). 

New Geelong line timetable - the good

The 20 minute weekend boost is indeed a game-changer. Not just for Geelong but also Melbourne growth areas like Wyndham Vale and Tarneit. These are a similar distance out as outer Frankston line stations (with trains every 10 min) but had a quarter the frequency with the previous 40 minute service. This upgrade massively cuts that difference. 

Another big positive is that, apart from a few 'holes' (eg a 33 min gap at Waurn Ponds) 20 minute weekend frequency holds up for a 14 hour span (7am - 9pm). That is vastly handier than the ~10 hours found on busy Metro lines to major stations like Moonee Ponds, Essendon, Craigieburn, Coburg and Reservoir in Melbourne's service-starved north . Planning for Metro timetables in the north, which have been basically stagnant for years, can really draw inspiration from the Geelong line here.   


It's not just Metro lines in the safe-seated north that could benefit. At certain times (eg 7-9am Sundays and 7-9pm both weekend days) frequency on the Geelong weekend timetable even trumps that on busy eastern lines like Belgrave/Lilydale and Pakenham/Cranbourne. This is because all but a handful of Metro lines (Werribee, Williamstown and Frankston) only get a 30 minute service (or worse) at these times, especially on Sundays.   

New Geelong line timetable - the bad

Late weekend am starts remain

Trains need to run at times people need to travel. There's a point of diminishing returns - eg the number of people wanting to go to the CBD at 2am is less than say 8am. You might not run a train at 2am Sunday, or maybe you'd have a cheaper to run bus if you thought some type of service was justified. But you still need a decent span of hours so that the train is an option for travel to jobs, major events and other transport such as long distance trains or airport buses. This makes service in the 5am - 8am window super-critical, especially on weekends. Reinforced by the precautions many take of arriving earlier than strictly necessary for critical long-distance trips to allow an 'unreliability buffer'.   

A late weekend am start has been a chronic problem with the existing Geelong (and Melton) timetables. This is in stark contrast to Metro lines that now enjoy 24 hour Night Network services. While you might not run Night Network services on V/Line the first train should at least arrive reasonably early (eg say 6 or 6:30am even on Sunday morning). The new Geelong timetable does not fix this, with the first arrival remaining too late to be useful for some early morning events, especially on Sundays. 
 

While it would be desirable that the two extra early Sunday inbound trips needed should start from Waurn Ponds, even commencing them from Wyndham Vale would have substantial benefits given the high usage of this and Tarneit station. 

40 minute weekday interpeak frequency remains for Waurn Ponds and Marshall

Even though the weekend timetable got a big boost to capitalise on the line duplication the weekday timetable didn't so much. This means twice the waits between trains on weekdays than weekends, a less legible service, and excessive dependence on timetables (you can't just take a bus or drop someone off at a station and take it for granted there'll be a train within a reasonable time).

Waurn Ponds and Marshall are  the nearest stations to the major growth area of Armstrong Creek so justify the 20 minute weekday interpeak service that finishes at South Geelong continuing to Waurn Ponds. 

Bus and coach information not where it should be on the PTV website

If you scroll down the PTV website train item you'll see a list of something like 50 bus and coach routes listed. These will get timetable changes to retain coordination with trains. This is notable as the Wyndham and Geelong bus networks, introduced in 2015, are the biggest instance of rail / bus coordination in the state. Regrettably PTV have a 'silo' mentality when it comes to publishing passenger information with a dislike of cross-referencing and hyperlinks. Hence if you go to their bus and coach page you won't see reference to these timetable changes. At least a brief item on the bus page and a link should have been provided. Speaking of buses, the 190 from Wyndham Vale to Werribee, originally intended to coordinate with all Geelong trains, retains its 40 minute weekend frequency, thus meshing with every second weekend train rather than every train (more or less) before. 

New Geelong line timetable - the ugly

Complex and irregular peak stopping patterns 

The new timetable keeps this. An opportunity exists for a true greenfields timetable with more regular times and fewer unique stopping patterns to make catching trains easier. Especially for trips between intermediate stations. This change did not exploit this opportunity but the sooner this happens the better.


Some 'holes' with sharp service drop-offs

A break to a regular frequency can discourage travel at certain times. Or it can give rise to crowding as people try to plan their trips to avoid it. Essentially the timetable forcing a travel behaviour change.

This effect is particular pernicious when the gap is widened for peak direction trip at shoulder peak times. This is because shoulder peaks need good frequency and spare capacity to try to flatten the peaks and create room for more passengers.

The new timetable exacerbates an already existing problem as the gap between trains at Tarneit increases from an already unsatisfactory 28 minutes to 33 minutes around 9:30am on the inbound direction. This is due to a messy interface between the peak and off-peak pattern. Either rejigging the peak timetable or adding a short trip from Wyndham Vale to Southern Cross might help plug this gap.   



The weekend timetable has some unhelpful gaps too. For instance the 20 minute inbound frequency at Waurn Ponds is broken (becoming a 33 min gap) just before 3pm Sundays. It would be 40 minutes if the Warrnambool train didn't stop there.

Arguably worse, as it affects the whole line, is the extreme frequency drop-off after the 9:21pm from Waurn Ponds. Before then a 20 minute service runs. After then it's an 80 minute gap, with the next train at 10:41. The best fix would be an extra trip, perhaps departing at 10:01pm, such as is done on Saturday where the gap is 40 minutes. But the very least the frequency fall-off should be gentler with the 9:21pm departure moved later.

This hole leaves those in the Tarneit area without alternatives to plug it since regular bus routes that could have run from the Werribee line have typically ceased around 9pm Sundays. The only bus that does run late 7 nights in the City of Wyndham is the 190 between Wyndham Vale and Werribee, with its original intention being to connect with Geelong trains and compensate for the removal of direct trains to Werribee in 2015. Scheduling the Route 190 is a juggling act since it is likely that more passengers would benefit from good connections from the Werribee end than Wyndham Vale. However it is unfortunate that the last Sunday evening Geelong - Werribee connection has gone from super-tight (bus leaving 2 minutes after train arrives) to just broken (bus leaving 1 minute before train). Passengers aren't however completely stranded, with another (and last) bus being 30 minutes later (11:53pm).    

Uneven train timetables with big holes may be a consequence of having to accommodate other movements on the line, including long distance services. However then could also indicate a parsimonious attitude to timetabling and/or a refusal to countenance even minor but highly beneficial improvements that are considered 'out of scope'. Also, as Page 50 of the latest DTP annual report advises, V/Line has difficulty with fleet maintenance and availability, with Vlocity availability at 87.1% in the last year, well down on the 92.5% target.  
 

Conclusion and wider implications

This welcome timetable upgrade brings some much needed weekend frequency benefits to the Geelong line. This is a major win for a population catchment exceeding 600 000 people and growing fast. 'Almost there but not quite' is my summary. 

The need for refinements remain, likely with disproportionate benefits. The more significant include extending the weekday 20 minute interpeak frequency to Waurn Ponds, a simpler tidier peak timetable, fewer 30 - 80 minute 'holes' in schedules and earlier weekend start times so important to support major Melbourne and regional events. The number of extra weekly trips needed to plug these gaps would be relatively small since most of the hard work on improving basic frequencies at most times has already been done. 

It puzzles me why they weren't done this time. It seems that Melbourne has an austerity mindset when it comes to all-day train frequency, even though most of rail's expenses are fixed. Examples include duplicating train lines but not simplifying complex peak stopping patternsneglecting frequency, or accepting 40 minute Sunday morning train frequencies on major lines (that not even Adelaide does).

International rail trouble-shooter Simon Lane found that Melbourne's train reliability problems in the 1990s mostly arose from bad timetabling. 30 years on timetabling remains the single biggest reason why Melbourne's train service is barely half as good as Sydney's and generally inferior to Perth's.   

A new culture of abundant service needs to supplant the current 'scarce service' mindset to maximise the Metro Tunnel's returns on the considerable political and financial capital invested in it. For example 5 minute rather than 10 minute all week frequencies for at least Metro Tunnel's central portion. Not excessive when one considers existing service levels in Toronto, Vancouver and Sydney on their subway/skytrain/metro lines. Or even Perth with 7.5 minute core network frequencies. 

Only with this plus all-week frequency boosts on intersecting lines can the Metro Tunnel truly deliver all business case benefits, including the huge wins possible from a reconfigured tram network and enhanced connectivity across the state's rail network. Including the Geelong line that will hopefully get further timetable tweaks addressing the issues raised, before Metro Tunnel opening day.   


Index to other Timetable Tuesday items 

Thursday, October 24, 2024

UN 190: How are we going with bus reform?

 

Are we making progress on bus network reform? How fast is the overall health and usability of Melbourne's bus network improving? 

Back in March, when Victoria's Bus Plan turned 1000 days I did a bus network health check to gauge where we were at. That analysis found that two-thirds of Melbourne's 349 bus route had a serious timetable or route alignment problem, with about two-fifths of those having both. 

124 residential area routes did not meet minimum service standards with regards to operating hours, with 75 of those not running 7 days. Also 166 routes had serious issues such as complexity, weak termini or inefficient overlaps. 

More than seven months have since elapsed. Today the Bus Plan turns 1229 days as you can see from the count-up below.  



What's been the progress in this, the start of the plan's second thousand days? To find out I checked PTV's list of bus service changes and amended the health check spreadsheet I presented last time to include them. 

Some good things did happen with bus services in the last 7 months. 

But they are so few in number that you need to go to fractions of 1% to stop rounding errors being a risk when you make pie charts like below:  


Hardly a shift. In raw numbers this translates to the following (click for better view): 



The more significant changes include: 

* Number of bus routes in Melbourne rose from 349 to 351 due to new routes 475 and 501. Both routes were judged not to have serious issues so this improved the tally there as well. 

* Number of bus routes with minimum standards service or better grew by 3 from 213 to 216. Attributable to the new route 475 and extended operating hours on the 546 and 606. This growth matches the 2008 - 2024 average of 5 routes per year gaining minimum standards. It is however 90% down on the excellent 50 routes per year achieved between 2006 and 2008
 
* Proportion of bus routes with minimum standards increased only marginally (63.2 to 63.7%). This is because new Route 501, with its early finish, does not meet the minimum service standard of a 7 day service until 9pm. Neither does the 612, though its new Sunday service is welcome. 

* Number of bus routes operating 7 days increased from 263 to 267 (or 0.7% to reach 78.5%). Due to new 7 day growth area routes 475 and 501 commencing plus new Sunday service starting on the established area 546 and 612 routes. The 505's large frequency upgrade (to a weekday service every 20 min) also contributed to reducing the number of routes with a significant timetable issue. 

* The number of routes with serious route alignment or legibility issues fell by one to 165, attributable to the 546 gaining a consistent city end terminus (rather than alternating between Queen Vic Markets and Melbourne University). This indicates only 1 out of the 166 routes that had significant alignment issues got reform in this period - a very slow rate of progress if sustained.  

Conclusion

The record shows things are pretty sluggish in the bus service reform world right now. That's even if you apply creative licence and broaden this to include timetable upgrades on existing routes. Refranchising and electrification, both of less direct benefit to passengers, have instead attracted more official attention, with results from the former announced last month

Will the bus reform pace pick up in the next few months?  

Hopes were raised for routes 603, 604 and 605 on October 20 before PTV pulled the item from its website. These would have been good reforms that would have plugged some service 'black holes' and fixed 605's notoriously short operating hours and limited Sunday timetable. However 605 is still in for some rerouting via Domain Rd in coming months.    

The Route 800 7 day timetable upgrade, slated for later this year, will be a great Christmas present for much of the south-east.   

Last year's GAIC bus funding will mean some new and extended routes. Maybe a year or two off given normal time-lines. An Eynesbury bus got funding in the 2023-24 state budget so that is a near prospect. Beyond that I'd imagine that Mt Atkinson would be a front-runner, with significant political interest and a school bus service starting first term next year.  

Earlier this week the premier foreshadowed that the next GAIC round will include transport services, with announcements next year. These additions would be implemented around 2027, give or take a year.  

Scope exists for enterprising Labor MPs to include small-scale bus service upgrade requests in their budget bids for 2025. Especially given that infrastructure has been specifically excluded.   

Overall though bus reform is a long hard slog, with the Bus Plan proving the truism that it's nothing without budget funding. Indications are that growth areas will get needed catch-up coverage as mentioned above. 

But despite its cost-effectiveness and a successful start made around Deakin University, bus network reform appears as distant prospect as ever in other established areas. For example the promised Bus Reform Implementation Plan remains elusive. There have also been no outcomes from the metropolitan north, metropolitan north-east and Mildura bus reviews announced before the 2022 state election. 

Getting 7 day service funded on existing routes does however seem more alive, with examples like the 612, 766 and 800 raising hopes for more. Assuming 5 established area routes get 7 day upgrades each year (FixDandyBuses is backing 802, 804 & 814 for the 2025 budget), all 74 residential area bus routes currently without Sunday service will have it by 2039. 

Your views on whether you think this will happen before or after all tram stops are made accessible are appreciated and can be left in the comments below.  

See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here


Monday, October 21, 2024

UN 189: Better PT to our 25 housing activity centres


Yesterday premier Jacinta Allan announced 25 precincts, mostly around train stations, that would be zoned for increased housing density including apartments.

I discussed this here

Overall I thought the locations were about as good as you could get for access to frequent public transport. For example 24 of the 25 housing activity centres were on train lines that ran every 15 minutes or better on weekdays, with the 25th near a frequent tram. Furthermore, 9 listed locations have a 10 minute 7 day service.

The media release mentioning train frequencies (although I'd have preferred off-peak to peak) was also good, drawing a link between development and service levels that was previously less articulated. 

Having said that there was still room for improvement. With housing abundance must come transport service abundance. Housing activity centres need to be near 7 day frequent transport, day and night. Otherwise residents will be stuck in traffic, have high transport costs and be hardly less car dependent than those in less dense areas. 

Despite our large train and tram networks, all week frequent transport is scarce in Melbourne, being accessible to under 5% of the population, as shown on these frequency maps by Philip Mallis. And such frequent transport access needs to be available not just by train to the city but by tram or bus between suburbs for a truly versatile and connected network.  

Just as I discussed cost-effective network needs for six proposed social housing priority areas in 2020 and ten housing priority areas in 2023, here's my top service priorities for the 25 centres listed yesterday


Sandringham line

North Brighton, Middle Brighton, Hampton, Sandringham

* Boost Sunday am rail frequency from 40 to 20 min on the Sandringham line
* Implement 10 min 7 day rail frequency upgrade as proposed in 2016 Metro Tunnel Business Case
* Bay Rd SmartBus from Sandringham to Southland and beyond (either straightened and upgraded Route 828 to Dandenong/Berwick or as part of extended Route 733 SRL SmartBus to Box Hill)
* Upgrade Route 703 SmartBus from Brighton to full SmartBus standards including service until midnight, more frequent weekend trips and a 10 minute off-peak frequency. 
* Extend Route 824 from Moorabbin to Brighton via South Rd with higher frequency to replace current  infrequent and complex 811/812 routes 
* Reform complex 600/922/923 routes, with simpler and more frequent services
* Potentially extend 64 tram to Middle Brighton

Frankston line

Toorak, Hawksburn, Armadale, Malvern 

* Boost Frankston line frequency to operate every 10 min or better between at least 7am and 10pm 7 days
* Stop all Dandenong line trains at Malvern to provide a direct Metro Tunnel connection and relieve stress on Caulfield as an interchange point
* Tram network reform and shorter/more legible interchanges at stations to make north-south travel easier
* 7 day tram frequency boosts for routes 3, 5, 6, 16, 64 & 72 with maximum 6 - 10 min waits off-peak during the day and every 10-15 min at night and Sunday mornings 
* Extend Route 604 north to Victoria Gardens via Burnley to provide a new north-south connection 
* Bus 605 upgrade with improved operating hours and weekend frequency
* Consider extending 5 tram to Darling station and 6 tram to Glen Iris station for better network connectivity
* Major upgrade for Caulfield station to facilitate accessibility and interchange between services


Pakenham/Cranbourne line

Carnegie, Murrumbeena, Hughesdale, Oakleigh 

* Ensure Metro Tunnel trains operate every 5 min or better all day between 7am and 10pm between at least West Footscray and Westall 7 days
* Boost buses on Routes 900 and 903 to operate every 10 min or better 7 days with Sunday evening serviced added and 24 hour weekend service
* Major bus reform and service uplifts including: (a) Route 767 frequency boost and rerouting via East Boundary and Chesterville Rds with maximum 15-20 min waits over longer hours, (b) Route 623 upgraded to run every 15 - 20 minutes 7 days with operation via more of Neerim Rd (replacing 624) and Caulfield Station, (c) New north-south route from Caulfield to La Trobe University involving consolidated and more frequent routes 548 and 624 every 10-20 min or better. 
* New bus rapid transit on Princes Hwy between Caulfield, Chadstone, Monash and Rowville incorporating network reforms to Route 900 and other routes in the Oakleigh area. 
* 7 day tram frequency boosts for route 67 with maximum 6 - 10 min waits off-peak during the day and every 10-15 min at night and Sunday mornings.
* Consider extending 67 tram to Carnegie station for better network connectivity
Major upgrade for Caulfield station to facilitate accessibility and interchange between services

Glen Waverley line

Tooronga, Gardiner, Darling 

* Upgrade Glen Waverley line to run every 10 min or better 7 days between at least 7am and 10pm 
* Frequent north-south bus link from Caulfield - La Trobe University via Tooronga Rd (incorporating existing 624 and 548) operating every 15-20 min over long hours
* New Burke Rd bus from Camberwell to Caulfield operating every 15-20 min over long hours to fill existing 'missing link'
* Extension of Route 734 bus from Glen Iris to Caulfield to provide a stronger terminus and boost to every 20 min or better 7 days
* Extend operating hours on 612 bus to at least 9pm and boost weekend frequency to 30 min
* 7 day tram frequency boosts for routes 5, 6 and 72 with maximum 6 - 10 min waits off-peak during the day and every 10-15 min at night and Sunday mornings.
* Potentially extend 5 tram to Darling station and 6 tram to Glen Iris station for better network connectivity


Belgrave/Lilydale line

Hawthorn, Glenferrie, Auburn, Blackburn, Nunawading, Mitcham 

* Upgrade Ringwood train frequency to every 10 min or better between at least 5am and midnight 7 days and simplify peak stopping patterns with new greenfield timetable
* Introduce new frequent Chandler Hwy bus from Hawthorn/Glenferrie area to Northland/LaTrobe University via a reformed and extended Route 567 operating every 15-20 min 7 days
* Upgrade Route 703 SmartBus from Blackburn to full SmartBus standards including service until midnight, more frequent weekend trips and a 10 minute off-peak frequency. 
* Upgrade service on Route 902 SmartBus between Nunawading and Springvale South, including 7.5 min peak frequency, 10-15 min evening and weekend frequency and Sunday evening service until midnight. 
* Upgrade service on Route 907 SmartBus to Mitcham, including 10 min maximum waits 7 days until 9pm and evening service every 15-20 min. 
* Wider bus network reform in Blackburn/Nunawading area, including a simple and frequent Box Hill - Ringwood bus along Canterbury Rd and a more direct Route 273. 
* 7 day tram frequency boosts for routes 16, 48, 70, 75 and 109 with maximum 6 - 10 min waits off-peak during the day and every 10-15 min at night and Sunday mornings.

Sunbury line

Middle Footscray, West Footscray, Tottenham 

* Ensure Metro Tunnel trains operate every 5 min or better all day between 7am and 10pm between at least West Footscray and Westall 7 days
* Boost frequency on routes 216 and 220 buses to every 10 min weekdays and 15 min weekends, with longer operating hours (eg earlier weekend starts) and potential other network reform in area 
* New Ashley St bus route between Highpoint and Yarraville via Tottenham station operating every 15-20 min over long hours
* Upgrade bus route 411 to SmartBus standard with longer hours and frequent 7 day service (in conjunction with bus network simplification in Altona North area) 
* Upgrade bus route 414 to operate 7 days with longer hours
* Consider bus network reform in West Footscray area including a direct bus to Highpoint
Major upgrade for walkability, visibility and safety around Tottenham station and underpass


Toorak Village

7 day tram frequency boosts for route 58 with maximum 6 - 10 min waits off-peak during the day and every 10-15 min at night and Sunday mornings.
* Extend Route 604 north to Victoria Gardens via Burnley to provide a new north-south connection 
* Bus 605 upgrade with improved operating hours and weekend frequency


That's it from me. Additions welcome in the comments below. 


See more Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here

Sunday, October 20, 2024

More housing in more places?


Yesterday premier Jacinta Allan said that she'll soon have more to say about planning for more housing in established, well-serviced suburban areas. Or, in her terms, "in the community you love, near the things you need". And it would be close to transport and jobs, giving people an option to live nearer family. 

That's an issue because older people snaffled homes in many of the choice suburbs years ago (when they were cheaper relative to incomes) and are tending to remain in place. That leaves only limited choices, often only a CBD area apartment or a less accessible outer suburb, for younger people just starting out and those on average incomes or less, including the key workers needed to keep Melbourne going. 

Maximising service to the many

I have been particularly interested in the relationship between housing and public transport access. 

It has been repeatedly shown and mapped that Melbourne has done poorly at bringing people, jobs and high-quality (ie frequent 7 day) public transport together despite (unusually) retaining both its legacy train and tram networks. Doubly so for people on low incomes, where Melbourne ties with Brisbane for the wooden spoon of the large Australian capitals. For evidence, see reports and maps prepared by (1) Climate Council, (2) Philip Mallis and (3) my own interactive network frequency maps

To fix this we need to
(a) bring frequent all-week public transport nearer more people and jobs, or
(b) bring more people and jobs near all-week frequent public transport 

Doing both at once would speed progress. Especially since all-week frequent public transport is extraordinarily scarce in Melbourne, with under 5% of Melburnians having it. This is because the current government has built transport infrastructure but done much less with service, with metropolitan public transport service per capita actually falling on our busiest modes

Transport near the people

This sidelining of service has left Melbourne with 30 to 40 minute gaps on much of our rail, bus and even tram networks at times many are still travelling, while Sydney is powering ahead with more 15, 10 or even 5 minute frequencies across more areas. There's also implications for transit-convenient development since outside the CBD and surrounds almost no suburban site (not even a big one like Box Hill) features true all week frequent service on even one line. 

 
Fixing this requires working our existing lazy train, tram and bus assets harder all week to form a Future Frequent Network, with the Victorian Transport Action Group proposing a staged program to implement this

People near the transport

The other element is clustering jobs and housing around the transit infrastructure and service. A bit like the 20-year old Melbourne 2030 plan but with more emphasis on housing affordability this time around. 

Higher density needs all week frequent public transport in multiple directions so that redeveloped precincts are as accessible as they can be and that space-inefficient car use becomes an option rather than a necessity. I discussed cost-effective network needs for six proposed social housing priority areas in 2020 and ten housing priority areas in 2023

Could there be more established areas earmarked for denser housing? At least as far as planning goes the answer is yes, and I'll get on to today's announcement from the premier later. First a bit about current activity centre planning. 

Material on specific and already announced activity centres is on the VPA's website.  There's also activity centre policy guidance on planning.vic.gov.au

When the government puts planning and transport matters out for public consultation they will often use the engage.vic.gov.au site. Like they did for the housing activity centres. 

Submissions for the Activity Centres Program closed on September 29, 2024. It's after then but they will often leave some information up. That's worth reading this to understand how they select the housing precincts. 

As explained on the current Engage Activity Centres Program page, it's a three step process. The first step is used to determine a 'density index' for each centre which is like an overarching target. The next two steps are more to do with the internal structure of each centre (what they call 'precinct typologies'). For broad network planning we are only interested in Step One. 

Probably of greatest interest are the factors considered when determining density. There is a matrix comprising two main factors: These are (a) access to jobs and (b) access to fixed route public transport (ie trains or trams). Precincts near a lot of both get earmarked for high density, as does anywhere within 2.5km of the CBD, provided it has at least one tram line. 

The matrix is reproduced below (click for improved clarity):

 

Mapping to density is mostly on a 1 to 10 scale with a dense major activity centre rating off the scale. It is tempting to surmise that the 1 to 10 rating is roughly the number of building storeys but this is not stated. 

What aspects of public transport aren't considered? Service frequency is one. Being on an infrequent train line rates higher (up to 6) than the highest scenario for buses (4). You can justify this on the basis of trains' superior capacity, speed and isolation from traffic delays. However a single tram route (5) ranks higher than multiple frequent bus routes (4). Although there's only a handful of the latter corridors in Melbourne so this is relatively unimportant. 

This work confirms the low status in which the Principal Public Transport Network (PPTN) is held as a planning tool. This is possibly wise as I think the existing PPTN has problems with what is in and what is out.

However I do think that our densest centres need fast and frequent transport in multiple directions, not just one. A factor considering this would be good. Failure to consider this may result in excessive density being built in near-CBD but mostly inaccessible precincts like Fishermans Bend and parts of Docklands. A look at SNAMUTS maps shows how much accessibility falls on the CBD fringes with somewhere like Waterfront City having terrible connectivity despite having a tram route due to bad geometry (which is expensive to overcome).

As Jarrett Walker says, 'be on the way'. You really can't (or shouldn't) built much at Fishermans Bend without Metro 2 to the west. A stub tram route won't do much more than the current frequent Route 235 bus. If you don't want to build Metro 2 yet then defer Fishermans Bend in favour of 'on the way' precincts like Arden, Footscray, Sunshine and Caulfield which will be on Metro 1.   

What would an activity centre density allocation look like in practice using the PT infrastructure/jobs matrix set out? The currently available Engage link shows it for the first announced centres.   
    

Broadmeadows, Epping, Ringwood and Frankston ranks as Metropolitan Activity Centres, so are earmarked for the highest densities. All are rail-based centres. However the first two (Craigieburn and Mernda lines) lack frequent trains outside peak hours. Ringwood and Frankston do have 7 day frequent train service during most daylight hours, with weekend mornings being the main exception. However, as with even the best served public transport in Melbourne, evening service drops to every 20 - 30 minutes. This lags Sydney and is not consistent with Metropolitan Activity Centres growing as food, arts and entertainment hubs, especially when bus services from the surrounds are also considered.  

The next tier down, scoring 6 or 7 (storeys?) is occupied by Preston (High St), Camberwell Junction and Moorabbin. All are at least somewhat near to rail with Camberwell also being a tram hub. The abovementioned service frequency issues apply for these centres as well. 

Finally there is a lower cluster (scoring between 3 and 4) for North Essendon, Niddrie-Keilor Road and Chadstone. The first two have trams while Chadstone (scoring 4) has buses only. While the 4 score might reflect existing activity and the large number of bus routes, it's a case of quantity over quality; not a single bus route in Chadstone runs much after 9pm Sunday nor has gaps of less than 30 minutes on weekends. Doncaster, which has much better bus services, oddly is not in this first crop of centres. 

Today's announcement

This morning the premier announced (via Facebook) that they were 'helping build more homes' close to 50 train stations and tram stops in Melbourne.  



The Age today said that 50 areas were being rezoned to allow higher densities.

25 centres, mostly in the east and south-east, were named today. By line these are: 

Sandringham: North Brighton, Middle Brighton, Hampton, Sandringham
Frankston: Toorak, Hawksburn, Armadale, Malvern
Pakenham/Cranbourne: Carnegie, Murrumbeena, Hughesdale, Oakleigh
Glen Waverley: Tooronga, Gardiner, Darling
Belgrave/Lilydale: Hawthorn, Glenferrie, Auburn, Blackburn, Nunawading, Mitcham
Sunbury: Middle Footscray, West Footscray, Tottenham
Route 58 tram: Toorak Village

If you prefer maps to lists, The Age published the Rail Corridor Activity Centres map here.

Overall there is a skew towards inner and south-eastern suburbs, ie those with some of Melbourne's highest property prices, access to jobs and best public transport connectivity. The first 25 also appears to be a subset of the Major Activity Centre list. Part of a long-term plan up to 2051.

All locations are near a weekday off-peak service every 15 minutes or better (either existing or likely post Metro Tunnel). Furthermore, 9 listed locations have a 10 minute 7 day service. That could double provided Metro Tunnel delivers the goods re frequency on (a) Sunbury line, (b) Sandringham/cross-city line and there is (c) a revised greenfields Belgrave/Lilydale timetable implemented shortly afterwards. 

In short the location choices are about as good as possible when it comes to locating near frequent rail transport. Explicitly linking land use with service frequency, as stated in the premier and minister's media release, is excellent. Hopefully there will be more attention to cross-suburban transport, notably bus operating hours and frequencies to make car-free living both possible and convenient at many of these locations. 

The article says the government has promised to consult councils and residents on height limits. This August 30 2024 archived version of the Activity Centre Density Allocation map may give some indication on recent thinking regarding potential relative development intensity at some centres.

As a caution, it's worth noting that a government plan for zoning density doesn't automatically make new homes appear. It also has to be an economic proposition for developers to build and buyers (or tenants) to move in to. The relatively subdued prices of established homes in Melbourne at the moment might make some think twice about developing. Factors like interest rates, economic sentiment, taxation policy, immigration and more are also important in shaping what gets built where.    

We'll know where the remaining 25 activity centres will be later this year according to the article.  

Monday, October 14, 2024

Local transport campaigns and council elections


Various campaigns have asked 2024 council candidates to commit to advocating for better public and active transport. Here's a quick summary of known campaigns, what they want and areas they're active in: 


Melbourne FOE Better Buses campaign 

Campaign seeks a radically reformed direct and frequent bus network across Melbourne's western suburbs. Also advocates for new bus routes in growth areas.  

Most active in Wyndham, Melton, Brimbank, Hobsons Bay, Maribyrnong with some candidates from other municipalities also signing up. 

See their candidate pledges here


Fix Dandy Buses 

Campaign seeks budget funding for 7 day service on all bus routes in Dandenong, with 2025 priorities being routes 802, 804 and 814. It follows from the #Fix800Bus campaign that got 7 day service on Route 800 funded in the 2024 state budget. 

Active in the City of Greater Dandenong, the campaign emailed candidates requesting support for council advocacy for better 7 day bus services. 

See news on their Facebook page


Streets People Love campaign

A broad campaign from nearly 40 local transport and environment advocacy groups to create safe and pleasant streets with good walkability and cycle access. 

Candidates from councils across Melbourne have been asked for their support. You can enter your address and the website will tell you which candidates have pledged for better streets. 



More Trains Melbourne's North 

Seeks to boost all-week train frequencies on the Craigieburn, Upfield, Mernda and Hurstbridge line to match service levels on other lines. The campaign's first priority is to cut 40 min (Sunday morning) and 30 min (evening) waits to 20 minutes. Then a phased upgrade to every 10 minutes all week, starting with the busiest lines.  

Candidates in Hume, Moonee Valley, Whittlesea and Darebin in wards served by trains have been asked (via their Facebook pages) to support improved more frequent 7 day rail services.   

Candidates who responded positively are listed by council area on the More Trains Melbourne's North Facebook page


Combined 7 day bus campaigns of Merri-bek 

Seeks 7 day service on bus routes in Merri-bek, starting with important east-west routes 503, 506 and 536. Campaign has asked candidates in Merri-bek wards served by these routes for their position on advocating the better service needed. 

News on Facebook pages for Route 503, Route 506 and Route 536.


Any more? 

Let me know in the comments and I add your campaign if it's about local transport issues. 


Other reading

Public Transport priorities for each local government area

Local council elections 2024 - background


Thursday, October 10, 2024

UN 188: How many people are near frequent public transport?


I've long maintained a set of interactive network frequency maps showing where Melbourne's frequent public transport goes. There are sets for various times of week and day and you can select layers by frequency threshold. But I have never quantified the population near frequent public transport at various times of week and day. 

But Philip Mallis has. And has presented figures and maps at last Friday's Transport Camp and earlier this week on his blog item here

I'm a big fan of this service/population based approach. More people in the industry should do it more often. And the expansion of the frequent network should be a leading KPI for the transport portfolio and the incoming DTP secretary with their pay depending on it. 

Public transport isn't just about building infrastructure as an end in itself. Instead it's more about serving people, making their lives better and connecting them to opportunity. Measuring access to frequent service is one great way to check the effectiveness (or otherwise) of investment choices.       

Below are a few of the maps presented. They show the extent how Melburnians' access to frequent public transport changes across the week and time of day. 


As you might expect, frequent service (defined as every 10 min or better) is most prevalent at peak times. It exists in all directions from Melbourne, thanks to frequent peak rail service on all the longer lines. The gaps increase further out as only a few suburban bus services run every 10 minutes or better, even in the peaks. 

M-F Peak: Overall about 50% of the population are within 800 metres of frequent service in peak times. Though note this will be an overestimate since the measurement method is based on services per hour and if there are multiple infrequent routes in an area this will count as a frequent service even though they may use different stops. Also even if (say) a route every 15 minutes and one every 20 minutes share a stop then you might still get 15 minute gaps even though 7 buses an hour means an average 9 minute headway. This effect is very pronounced in areas like Mornington, which show up on the map has having frequent service even though all routes are either every 30, 40 or 60 minutes in peaks.   

M-F interpeak: About half a million Melburnians who had frequent service in the peaks lose it in the weekday interpeak periods. It's a bit hard to see from the maps but the big losses come from the outer parts of the rail network (notably in the outer south-east, outer east and almost all of the north and west) dropping from every 10-15 min in peaks to every 20, 30 and even sometimes 40 minutes (identifying these line sections is where my interactive network frequency maps will come in handy). Buses also fall off. Again its hard to see but it is common for buses in areas like Brimbank, Wyndham and around South Morang to fall from 20 minutes peak to 40 minutes off-peak. The 'holes' in many middle distance suburbs also increase. 

Saturday: Compared to weekday interpeak, a further 700 000 people lose access to frequent service during the day on Saturday. Generally train and tram frequencies hold up but buses do not. In the south-east you can see the areas with frequent service are much more spindly around the railway lines on Saturday versus a more filled in look on weekdays. A large part of this is attributable to orbital SmartBus routes (meant to be a premium bus service) collapsing from every 15 to every 30 minutes on weekends. As well, particularly in eastern middle suburbs, it is common for local routes every 30 minutes on weekdays to fall to hourly on weekends. In contrast other areas have a flatter 40 or 60 minute frequency pattern all week on their buses.  Very roughly one-quarter of Melburnians have frequent service on Saturdays versus one-half during weekday peaks. On Sundays it's more like one-fifth (noting that the method overestimates all proportions).  

Sunday evenings: When Sydney upgraded its train frequencies in 2017 it made a point of ensuring its 15 minute service extended to midnight or later. Melbourne has also had off-peak train frequency upgrades in the past two or three decades but they were overwhelmingly confined to daylight hours and/or a few lines (notably in the south-east). The result is that Melbourne had (and still has) zero routes that could individually be considered frequency on Saturday and especially Sunday evenings. Typical train and tram frequencies then are 30 minutes while most SmartBuses join local buses in finishing at 9pm Sundays. Thus just 5% of the population has frequent Sunday evening service and it is only because they live near sufficient infrequent routes that the analysis includes them. Saturday evening fares better, but even with the generous method used is still under 10%. 

I've summarised the above (and a couple of extra time bands) below. This shows that the proportion of Melburnians with all week frequent public transport is a small minority. This is not due to infrastructure limitations or rolling stock shortages. Instead it is directly due to a political choice in the 12 or 13 years to avoid funding all-week service, with declining service per capita on our busiest metropolitan modes.  


The Australasian city that has made the fastest progress towards spreading all week frequent service from the few to the many is Auckland. They did upgrade their train network but most of the gain is due to bus network and service reform, with Auckland now operating 40 routes with 7 day service every 15 minutes or better. 

Climate Council analysis shows that Sydney has done quite well in making sure that its lower income people have as much access to frequent service as its higher income people (on average). And Perth, hampered by high growth and sprawl, has come off a low base, building its now significant frequent train and bus network from almost nothing, thanks to a sustained program of  incremental all week train frequency increases and reforming buses far quicker than us

The Increasing Melbourne's Service Frequency paper from the Victorian Transport Action Group proposes an approach for Melbourne to replicate the success in growing its frequent network of those  abovementioned other cities.