UN 104: Connecting the inner north with the new 202 bus shuttle

The average new bus route in Melbourne brings one or two trips per hour to an outer suburb that previously lacked coverage. It costs around a million dollars annually and may use two or three buses. Most often it gets layered over an existing unchanged network. In the last few years we've gained several routes in growth areas such as Tarneit, Craigieburn and Clyde North.   

Other styles of new service are rarer. For example, despite rapid population growth, we haven't added a new SmartBus route in over a decade. And few middle suburbs have had overhauls to their often confusing 30 or 40 year old bus networks. 

The rise of the university shuttle

A bright spot on this otherwise stagnant Melbourne bus scene has been the university shuttle bus. Fifteen years ago there were none. Now some rank as amongst Melbourne's strongest bus routes. These are typically short and frequent routes in inner and middle suburbs that link a major university to a railway line. Services are typically every 10 minutes or better with express running reducing travel time. 

Their patronage performance (when measured by passengers boardings per hour) is often high even though most overlap existing less frequent bus routes. Special liveries and targeted marketing has given the shuttles a higher profile than the unloved, undifferentiated and infrequent mess that is most of the rest of Melbourne's bus network.

A quick summary of these routes (most successful first) is below:

601: Huntingdale - Monash Clayton. Overlaps 630 & 900 (less frequent with more stops). 

401: North Melbourne - Melbourne University

301: Reservoir - La Trobe University. Overlaps 561 (less frequent with more stops). 

201: Box Hill - Deakin University. Poor frequency & duplicates 281, 767 & 768.

768: Box Hill - Deakin University. Even poorer frequency & duplicates 201, 281 & 767.

403: Footscray - Melbourne University: Poor frequency & duplicates more frequent 402.

The first three are very successful. 201 is less so but has potential if merged with the duplicative 768 to form a more frequent service. 403 is an underperformer whose very existence should be reviewed. The lesson from this is that great success is possible with ten minute or better headways but if you can't do this then it's hardly worth starting a new shuttle. Instead it would be better to revamp other routes in the area.  

One more - the 202!

Anyway we're getting another university shuttle. You'd think the timing was unusual given that universities are moving to more online learning with COVID accelerating this. Not to mention the fall-off in overseas students who are big users of university shuttles.

But there is a reason for this. 

Current processes mean it takes years to set up a new bus route in Melbourne. In fact about as long as a large works project like removing a level crossing. This is because bus network reform is like a one-off cottage industry while level crossing removals is a mass project overseen by a dedicated authority.  

Hence what's being implemented now, in late 2021, is largely (but not entirely) the result of planning work and funding decisions from 2018. Examples include the upcoming Night Network bus reform, a new Keysborough South bus and .... today's topic .... the Parkville - Victoria Park bus shuttle. 

Outsiders were reminded of the Parkville - Victoria Park shuttle in this minister's release from Tuesday August 31, 2021. It described two new routes and several bus service upgrades.  The release said this:

Starting 20 September, the new Route 202 bus service will run every 10 minutes between Yarra Bend to the university and Parkville’s medical and research precinct, allowing people to board from Victoria Park Station.

The release went on to say:

Updated timetables are now available at ptv.vic.gov.au or on the PTV app.

They jumped the gun a little here. PTV's online timetables are normally updated weekly on Fridays. Hence you should be able to find details like exact operating hours online sometime today. 

The Department has other channels of communication apart from the PTV website. The main ones are written news items and maps. Information release is not necessarily synchronised. For instance one eagle-eyed watcher found a (then) mysterious Route 202 appear on a map that was viewable at least one day before the minister's release. 

That map is here:

Parkville to Victoria Park wasn't just any bus route. Unusual for an individual route it was specifically recommended by Infrastructure Victoria in 2018 as something that should be introduced quickly to reduce congestion. More recently, its profile was revived as part of Action 3 in Victoria's Bus Plan. 

A few questions will be clarified by the timetable. 

For example the number of stops. Shuttles like the 301, 401 and 601 only have stops near the ends of the route. Whereas the 202 passes through a much finer grained catchment with several north-south tram routes. The release says: 

The high-frequency shuttle bus will also pick up passengers from stops connecting with the 11, 86 and 96 tram routes, providing a more efficient and comfortable way for students and workers to reach the precinct. It will also eliminate the need for people commuting from Melbourne’s northern and north-eastern suburbs to travel into the CBD to get to the university or Parkville-bound services.

As the parallel Nicholson St (Tram 96) and Brunswick St (Tram 11) are so close one might think a stop in between would suffice. However the existing 200 / 207 have stops west of Nicholson and east of Brunswick so aren't quite a 'best fit' for a single stop. There is however a stop near Smith St which will be convenient for the 86. Stops here could be handy for a lot of shorter distance trips involving bus/train/tram transfers. This could make the 202 more versatile than other university routes. 

The location of the eastern terminus will also get people wondering. The mapped route may be so long as places to turn buses around are scarce in the area. It will be interesting to see whether there is a  stop on Studley Park Rd or whether a spot near Victoria Park Station will be the easternmost stop. 

Thirdly there's operating hours and days. I'll guess 5 days, like the other shuttle routes. However as the catchment serves more than just Melbourne University service might continue on university holidays (at the same 10 minute frequency) as well. That's my guess anyway. 

Is 202 still good value or does it present an opportunity cost?

The most obvious thing from the map is that the 202 almost completely overlaps the 200/207 pair. This is a popular all-stops service operating at a 10 minute combined frequency interpeak. It also enjoys long operating hours. Pre-COVID the 200 and 207 got crowded. Reliability also suffered. 

I am in two minds about the merits of the new 202 as opposed to boosting frequency on the existing routes. But one can see why. 202 could relieve some of the crowding pressure on 200/207, making these perform better. Being a shorter route the 202 should be more reliable. Also, as a single route operating more frequently it might be easier to communicate and market. The express nature of 202 is another selling point.

This formula has worked for other university shuttle routes such as the 301 and 601 despite these also overlapping other routes. However continued success partly depends on what universities do post-COVID. However that's not everything due to the hospitals in the area. 202's benefits are also heightened by the unidirectional City Loop which makes some trips from the Clifton Hill group quite long, so give an opportunity for the bus to be useful. The 202 could become even more useful when the Metro Tunnel opens since it could enable a connection from the Clifton Hill group to Footscray with a change at Parkville Station. 

The 202 does sound good but does it carry an opportunity cost?

Let's guess it costs a couple of million dollars per year to run. Let's also assume that the other new route announced, the 816 between Noble Park and Keysborough, requires half a million. The resultant $2.5 million per year (approximate) should permit wholesale bus network reform in the Springvale, Noble Park, Keysborough and Dandenong areas including a doubling or even tripling of service on straightened and simplified key routes from every 60 to every 20 or 30 minutes. This should be beneficial given the area attracts high usage even on current infrequent routes.  

Unlike inner suburbs, the people in this generally low income area are more likely to have jobs that lack work from home options. Hence their relative need for better buses may be higher. Some ideas on reformed Greater Dandenong bus networks are here , here and here. Comparing the patronage potential and social benefits of both options would be an interesting exercise that I'll leave to you. 

Conclusion

What do you think about the 202? Will it bring a new way of moving around Melbourne's inner-north that balances the 401 west of Melbourne Uni? Is it a worthwhile network addition or would you prefer alternatives like improved 200 and 207's frequencies? Or is a separate express route the best way to provide a premium frequent circumferential connection needed in the area? Maybe there's options elsewhere that better suit post-COVID travel patterns? Comments are invited and can be left below. 

See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here