Tuesday, May 17, 2022

TT #163: Waiting for days: The hunt for Melbourne's bus super waits

 

It's widely known that many parts of Melbourne have sparse bus services. Hourly waits are common even on busy routes (like the to be upgraded 733) that should run every 10-15 minutes. 

We even have some two-hourly gaps on services serving dense suburbia with lots of homes, jobs, shopping centres and more (eg Route 800 down Princes Hwy past the high-rise M City development). 

But that's not today's topic. Today I'll identify where the super waits are. These are neighbourhoods where you could wait days for the next bus. Especially around holiday periods such as the Easter just gone. And they're not necessarily in the country; there's parts of established Melbourne suburbia built 30+ years ago that never got a full timetable, even to 'minimum service standards' laid down in 2006. 

I used this online duration calculator to calculate times from timetables. Here's where you'll find some of Melbourne's longest waits for buses if you're there at the wrong time: 


Lilydale/Mooroolbark: 106 hours Rt 680

When it comes to bus super waits, some places equal but none beat Lilydale, Mooroolbark and surrounds. Taking the title is Route 680 mapped below. It runs weekdays only despite significant unique coverage. There's also no public holiday service. This means that there's no service for four days in a row: Good Friday, Easter Saturday, Easter Sunday and Easter Monday. That's 106 hours. Over a normal weekend the gap between buses falls to the 60 hours approximately between Friday afternoon and Monday morning. For a long weekend with a holiday Monday? The wait rises to 83 hours or nearly half a week.  



The Mooroolbark FlexiRide (basically a rebadged Telebus without any extra service days)  is also shown. That has Saturday service. However without Sunday and public holiday service it leaves its catchment without public transport for 60 hours over ordinary long weekends.  Because Easter Saturday is a Victorian public holiday its super waits can be up to 106 hours on that weekend too. 

Not on the map is Route 675 between Mooroolbark Station and Chirnside Park. Like the 680 it tops the super wait charts with 106 hour gaps. However some of it is overlapped by the 7-day bus 664 (which runs all public holidays). Still if you want a quick trip up to your nearest big shopping centre from Mooroolbark you'll need the 675. Weekend service here is justified as it's the second busiest weekday bus route in Melbourne that lacks a Saturday service

Most of this area is in the seat of Evelyn, held by Bridget Vallence MP. 


Campbellfield: 106 hours Rt 531 & Rt 538

Low-income residential Campbellfield hasn't had a single bus service improvement in at least 30 years. Its two local buses even missed out on 'minimum standards' upgrades that many others received about 15 years ago. Thus its residents are left behind with bus super waits, especially over long weekends. Campbellfield has local shops only and has poor cycling and walking connectivity due to industry or  busy / impermeable roads. The role of buses is doubly important without these active transport connections.   

Residential Campbellfield has two partly overlapping bus routes, both with limited service. These include the Monday - Friday only Route 531 and the Monday - Saturday morning Route 538. Neither operate on public holidays. Super waits for both of approximately 106 hours have applied for both since Easter Saturday became a public holiday. On 'normal' Saturday - Monday long-weekends the super waits for 531 is approximately 82 hours and 64 hours for the 538 (due to the latter's Saturday service, albeit finishing at 1pm). That's a long time to be stuck in your own suburb. 


The 2021 state budget mentioned changes to Route 538 but it is not yet known whether this will include a timetable upgrade.  The area is in the seat of Broadmeadows held by Frank McGuire MP.


Brooklyn: 106 hours Rt 414

Brooklyn, like Campbellfield, is known for both its toxic waste industrial fires and limited buses. And there'd be people (including decision-makers) who didn't know it had a significant residential component. Its bus route 414, from Footscray to Laverton, hasn't had a significant timetable upgrade for decades. 

Without Sunday or public holiday buses it faces a 100 plus hour wait between buses over the Easter weekend. However on ordinary long weekends it fares better than Campbellfield as its bus runs on Saturday afternoons (until about 5pm). This brings its maximum wait then down to about 60 hours.  



Brooklyn is in the seat of Williamstown held by Melissa Horne MP. 

Rowville / Lysterfield 106 hours

Politicians have talked about trains and trams to Rowville for decades but their governments struggle even with running buses. Especially east of Stud Rd where most of its people live. A recent attempt (FlexiRide Rowville) didn't address the key issue of limited operating hours in the area. The result is there is just one 365 day route (the 691) in the whole large area east of Stud Rd. That puts tens of thousands of people distant from regular public transport in a massive service 'black hole'.   

As discussed here, Rowville has two half-networks. 681 / 682 are indirect fixed loop routes. They run Monday to Sunday but not 365 days per year. How can this be? It's because they are the only two 7 day bus routes in Melbourne that don't run on public holidays. With Good Friday, Easter Saturday, Eastern Sunday and Eastern Monday public holidays this means that these routes have a 4 day spell where they don't run. That means a long gap in service in locations distant from the 691. 

Ordinary weekends are better as there's at least the 681 / 682 running then. But on a normal 3 day long weekend the super wait is down to less than 40 hours (measured between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morning). 


This area is in the seat of Rowville held by Kim Wells MP.

Reservoir: 105 hours - Rt 558

Reservoir is the size of several small inner suburbs. However its buses have been neglected with most of its routes being time-capsules from the 1970s. In no case is this more obvious than with the 558, attempting to serve the entire north-west of the suburb. 

Leaving aside its route alignment, odd frequency and midday reversal, the 558 timetable has problems with operating hours with that too missing out on minimum standards upgrades. Hence it remains without public holiday service and has a Saturday service that finishes at midday. 

The Easter bunny brings no joy for 558 users with a 105 hour super-wait over that long long weekend. On ordinary long weekends the super wait is nearer to 65 hours with nothing running between Saturday afternoon and Tuesday morning. 


Route 558 runs in the seats of Preston (Robin Scott MP) and Thomastown (Bronwyn Halfpenny MP). 

More examples

There's other examples apart from the above five that have long bus super waits. These are mostly in established areas that haven't had significant bus reform for up to 30 years and missed out on 2006's minimum standards upgrades. Some middle northern suburbs, much of the east around Kew, Balwyn and Ivanhoe, many places east of Stud Rd, the Mornington Peninsula and smaller regional cities have particular concentrations. 


Reasons for super-waits
 
Why might bus routes have super-long waits? It all comes down to service. There's not enough trips over enough of the week. In order of lengthening waits, issues are: 

* No service Sunday (hence ~36 hr Sat pm - Mon am gap) 
* No service Saturday afternoons or Sundays (hence ~41 hr midday Sat - Mon am gap) 
* No service Saturdays or Sundays (hence ~59 hr Fri pm - Mon am gap) 
* No service Sundays or public holidays (hence ~60 hr Sat pm - Tues am gap on long weekend) 
* No service Saturday afternoons, Sundays or pub hols (hence ~65 hr midday Sat - Tues am gap) 
* No service Saturdays, Sundays or public holidays (hence ~83 hr Fri pm - Tues am gap on a long weekend and ~107 hours over Easter) 
* The bus only runs weekly (hence ~167 hour gap) 

Lack of Sunday service is the most common cause of super waits around 36 hours. Lacking Saturday afternoon service can extend these to over 40 hours. That means no service from around midday Saturday to Monday morning. 

But it's public holidays that can double or triple super waits to over 80 to 100 hours. This is because most public holidays are tacked onto a weekend (mostly on a Monday). But sometimes it can be both Friday and Monday, as happens each Easter. There can also be similar issues in some years around Christmas and New Years Day, depending on when public holidays fall. 

Whereas the 2006 standard is to run a Saturday timetable on public holidays except Christmas and Good Friday) it was never fully rolled out. That leaves a lot of bus routes that run on Saturdays but not public holidays. And even a couple (681, 682) that run on Saturdays and Sundays but not public holidays. 

None of this is inevitable. What's there now is purely a result of history, state government priorities and current funding settings. These declare that buses (the nearest form of transport to 70% of Melburnians) are less important than trains and trams and don't need consistent, reliable daily service. More on the public holiday gamble on Melbourne buses here with further details via BCSV here

I've not discussed weekly buses. We have a couple in the outer east (extensions of 695 and 697) but typically there's coverage from other routes. Similar comments apply to the quirky Friday - Sunday 695F to Fountain Gate. 



Fixing the super waits

It's simple. Closing the gaps on the longest examples just need a small amount of funding and a revised timetable specification that applies across all Melbourne bus routes. The cost is low as not much more service kilometres per year is required. Most routes with super waits are short. Fixing them just needs a few more driver hours per route working the existing bus fleet harder.

In order of priority, fixing the easiest/cheapest first, these are: 

1. Add standard pattern public holiday service to all routes with 7 day service (involves only routes 681 & 682 plus Melton FlexiRide) 

2. Remove public holiday anomalies so that all routes that currently operate on Saturdays also operate on public holidays as per the standard (ie mostly Saturday timetable except for Good Friday and Christmas where a Sunday timetable operates). About 20 routes.

3. Add at least Saturday afternoon service to routes that currently finish around noon. About 8 routes (512 538 558 697 699 814 844 & 857).

4. Add at least a basic Sunday service to all routes that operate (i) Monday - Saturday only and (ii) Monday - Friday only if in a residential area. Maybe 50 routes?

Doing the first 3 would close most multi-day bus super waits in residential areas. It cannot be emphasised enough how incredibly cheap this is since we're adding something like an average of 3 to 6 service hours per week per route. 

Doing all four would deliver 365 day service in all residential areas as proposed in the 2006 'Meeting our Transport Challenges' plan and end all super waits. A little dearer at around 10 more service hours per route per week but still great value with outsized gains by upgrading say the top 13 to 20 routes to 7 day running.    

A few routes would remain weekday only, such as peak expresses, industrial and school routes. These would remain as is unless there is a need for them to run on public holidays (eg university shuttles on holidays not observed by universities). 




Service standardisation could actually lead to some operational savings due to fewer call centre queries and PTV getting it wrong less often. The benefits of this can't be underestimated; currently the Department of Transport often doesn't understand when its own services run because timetable arrangements are so complex. This makes errors on the PTV website and at bus stops common, thus confusing and potentially stranding passengers.  

Last week minister Ben Carroll said "Under me as Minister, they (buses) will not be the third cousin of public transport" (Whitehorse Leader - paywalled). For this to come about bus super waits will need to be abolished amongst other service reforms and upgrades. Reform here would be some 'quick wins'  with widely-spread gains including in marginal seats that could form the key to who wins the 2022 Victorian election

Know of any other suburbs with bus super waits? Please let me know in the comments below.


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