Friday, January 20, 2023

ChatGPT guest item: A budget submission for better train services



On Tuesday I used ChatGPT to write about how you would improve buses in Melbourne.

I thought it did a pretty good job. I later tried other uses like writing haiku, limericks, proposals for TV shows and ideas for community arts projects. Again quite good results. Where it tripped up on was detail - on that it made stuff up with factual errors. You would certainly not trust ChatGPT to write something without being reviewed by a human. 

Below is another job I tried with it. Given we have a state budget in May, I asked it to draft a plan for  boosting Metro train frequency in Melbourne. 


Q. Write a budget submission for Metro train frequency to be upgraded from a 40 min maximum wait to every 20 minutes or better across Melbourne.

A. Introduction:

This budget submission proposes the upgrade of metro train frequency from a maximum wait time of 40 minutes to a maximum wait time of 20 minutes or better across Melbourne. This upgrade is necessary to improve the overall public transport experience for commuters and to support the continued growth of the city.

Background:

Melbourne's population is projected to continue growing in the coming years, with estimates predicting an additional 1.5 million residents by 2040. This increase in population will put added pressure on the city's existing public transport infrastructure, and it is essential that measures are taken to improve the efficiency and reliability of the system to meet the needs of commuters.

Costs:

The cost of upgrading metro train frequency will include the purchase of additional trains and the necessary infrastructure to support them, including tracks, signals, and power systems. These costs will be offset by increased revenue from higher ridership and improved accessibility for commuters.

Implementation:

The upgrade will be implemented in phases, starting with the busiest lines and then expanding to other lines as resources become available. The project will be closely monitored to ensure that it is on schedule and within budget.

Conclusion:

Upgrading metro train frequency is a necessary step in ensuring that Melbourne's public transport system is able to meet the needs of its growing population. The investment in additional trains and infrastructure will pay for itself in increased revenue and improved accessibility for commuters. We recommend that this proposal be given serious consideration in the upcoming budget.


It's light on the detail but I think it did well. And a reminder that none of the above was written by or edited by me. The main thing wrong is it fell for the widespread misconception that you needed to buy more trains or add a lot of infrastructure to boost off-peak service. 

Next I tried to see if it could write an implementation plan. I gave some clues on some planning tasks required (it won't be exhaustive). 

Q. Write a staged implementation plan for improving Melbourne metro train services on key lines from every 30-40 to every 20 min. Start with cheapest upgrades like 7 - 10am Sunday mornings and early evenings 7 to 10pm. Tasks include rescheduling train maintenance, rerostering and recruiting drivers, producing fleet stabling plans, rewriting timetables and passenger information. Aim for the first round of upgrades to be in 2024 with subsequent stages every 6 months after that. 

A1. Implementation Plan:

Stage 1: (2023-2024)

Reschedule train maintenance to minimize disruptions during peak hours

Reroster and recruit additional train drivers to increase the number of available trains during peak hours

Produce fleet stabling plans to ensure that trains are in the right place at the right time

Rewrite timetables and passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Implement the first round of upgrades, starting with the cheapest options such as 7 - 10am Sunday mornings and early evenings 7 to 10pm

Stage 2: (2024-Q1)

Assess the effectiveness of the first round of upgrades and make any necessary adjustments

Begin the next round of upgrades, focusing on increasing the frequency of trains during peak hours

Continue to reroster and recruit additional train drivers as needed

Update fleet stabling plans to reflect the increased frequency of trains

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Stage 3: (2024-Q2)

Continue to monitor the effectiveness of the upgrades and make any necessary adjustments

Implement additional upgrades as needed

Continue to reroster and recruit additional train drivers as needed

Update fleet stabling plans to reflect the increased frequency of trains

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Stage 4: (2024-Q3)

Continue to monitor the effectiveness of the upgrades and make any necessary adjustments

Implement additional upgrades as needed

Continue to reroster and recruit additional train drivers as needed

Update fleet stabling plans to reflect the increased frequency of trains

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Subsequent stages:

Continuously monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of the upgrades and make any necessary adjustments

Implement additional upgrades as needed

Continue to reroster and recruit additional train drivers as needed

Update fleet stabling plans to reflect the increased frequency of trains

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Repeat the process every 6 months.

Note: This plan is just a general guide, actual implementation will depend on various factors and may require additional steps or actions.

I added underlining of stages for clarity but otherwise above is verbatim. If you didn't like it here's an alternative. 

A2. Implementation Plan for Improving Melbourne Metro Train Services:

Phase 1 (2024):

Reschedule train maintenance to minimize disruptions during peak hours

Reroster and recruit drivers to increase the number of available personnel

Produce fleet stabling plans to optimize the use of available trains

Rewrite timetables and passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Focus on the cheapest upgrades first, such as increasing frequency on key lines during 7 - 10am Sunday mornings and early evenings 7 to 10pm.

Phase 2 (2024 - 6 months after Phase 1):

Expand the frequency upgrades to other off-peak hours, such as mid-day and late evenings

Continue rerostering and recruiting drivers to ensure a sufficient number of personnel

Continue to optimize the use of available trains through fleet stabling plans

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Phase 3 (2025 - 6 months after Phase 2):

Further increase the frequency of trains during peak hours

Continue to optimize the use of available personnel and trains

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Phase 4 (2025 - 6 months after Phase 3):

Finalize the schedule and make any necessary adjustments

Continue to monitor and improve the service to ensure that train frequency is maintained at every 20 minutes during peak hours.

Note: This is a general plan, it's important to conduct a detailed analysis of the current infrastructure, maintenance, staff and budget constraints to create a more accurate plan.

Next I kept the above request but gave some hints as to a longer term vision these upgrades would be a step towards. Here's the first answer it came up with. 

Q. Write a staged implementation plan for improving Melbourne metro train services on key lines from every 30-40 to every 20 min. Start with cheapest upgrades like 7 - 10am Sunday mornings and early evenings 7 to 10pm. Tasks include rescheduling train maintenance, rerostering and recruiting drivers, producing fleet stabling plans, rewriting timetables and passenger information. Aim for the first round of upgrades to be in 2024 with subsequent stages every 6 months after that. Bear in mind that this is a prelude to a longer term frequent network vision which is all day trains, trams and buses on main lines to be every 10 min or better from about 2026.

Implementation Plan for Improving Melbourne Metro Train Services:

Phase 1 (2024):

Conduct a detailed analysis of the current infrastructure, maintenance, staff, and budget constraints to create a more accurate plan.

Reschedule train maintenance to minimize disruptions during peak hours and off-peak hours

Reroster and recruit drivers to increase the number of available personnel

Produce fleet stabling plans to optimize the use of available trains

Rewrite timetables and passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Focus on the cheapest upgrades first, such as increasing frequency on key lines during 7 - 10am Sunday mornings and early evenings 7 to 10pm.

Phase 2 (2024 - 6 months after Phase 1):

Expand the frequency upgrades to other off-peak hours, such as mid-day and late evenings

Continue rerostering and recruiting drivers to ensure a sufficient number of personnel

Continue to optimize the use of available trains through fleet stabling plans

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Phase 3 (2025 - 6 months after Phase 2):

Further increase the frequency of trains during peak hours

Develop plans for the integration of all-day services, such as trams and buses on main lines, to be every 10 min or better by 2026.

Continue to optimize the use of available personnel and trains

Update passenger information to reflect the new schedule

Phase 4 (2025 - 6 months after Phase 3):

Finalize the schedule and make any necessary adjustments

Continue to monitor and improve the service to ensure that train frequency is maintained at every 20 minutes during peak hours.

Begin implementation of the all-day services, such as trams and buses on main lines, to be every 10 min or better by 2026.

Note: The overall goal is to build towards a frequent network vision of all day, trams and buses on main lines to be every 10 min or better by 2026. This plan is a prelude to the long-term vision and will be adjusted accordingly as more information and resources become available.

Anyway that's it from ChatGPT. As I said lots on generalities but it needs help with specifics. Back to my own writing in future weeks. 

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