2020's state budget marked the high (or it it low?) point of the current state government feeding infrastructure but starving service. The 2021 budget (released 6 months later) opened the tap slightly to give a few drops for service. It also gave permission for the (then) Department of Transport to revive interest in bus network reform after a lethargic period of little progress.
I mention this as budgets are more important than plans from departments in determining what gets funded and thus done. But for now it's back to 2021's Victoria's Bus Plan and where it's at.
Proposed time-line for Victoria's Bus Plan
Pages 16-17 of the plan gave a time-line. This was divided into three chunks, as follows:
* 2021 - 2023: Described as leveraging the Big Build, addressing priorities and getting ready for further reform. Major items of work include developing the Bus Reform Implementation plan, undertaking trials, responding to areas of pressing reform, rolling out zero emissions buses, rapid running, bus priority and delivering more attractive networks in high needs areas.
* 2023 - 2030: This is the main body of network reform based on planning work done in 2021-2023. A greater use of buses as mass transit is promised. Key elements of this would be directness, speed and frequency on simpler trunk routes. Mention is made of reformed networks suitable for the Doncaster Busway and Metro Tunnel (my three part series on the latter is here: Metro West, Metro East, Central area).
* 2030 onwards: These are longer term actions, including further developing the network's mass transit capability and supporting employment clusters and the Suburban Rail Loop (my concepts on the latter presented here).
Achievements
Where are we up to on all this? Is the time-line likely to be met, including the commencement of major network reforms this year? Let's look at what's been achieved.
Firstly there were the timetable reforms of 2021. These were in two main chunks - Transdev (now Kinetic) network and the Night Network spring clean.
The former, which I describe as 'oily rag' reforms basically took resources from poorly used routes to deliver frequency boosts on busy routes, especially nights and weekends. Main Doncaster area routes also gained Sunday evening service. All very worthwhile but limited in scope.
The revised Night Network removed many special routes and replaced them with 24 hour weekend service on regular routes. This was a major improvement, again for very little cost. Beneficiaries included not only evening travellers but also those travelling early on weekend mornings who gained a service.
FlexiRide has also been greatly expanded. These are flexible route buses summoned by an app. Roll-out areas include Rowville/Lysterfield, Lilydale/Croydon/Mooroolbark, Rosebud, Melton and Tarneit. The first two examples replaced the very similar long-established Telebus service and were simply plonked over an existing largely unchanged fixed route network. Rosebud's was accompanied by regular network reforms while Melton and Tarneit's serve growth areas. Greensborough/St Helena will be getting its FlexiRide in late 2023 with this also accompanied by local network reform.
Apart from temporary stop-gap services in some other outer or growth areas (notably in Melbourne's north and possibly outer south-east), I think there are limitations to FlexiRide that I'm not sure are as widely appreciated as they should be. They are inherently low productivity, meaning that a high number of buses and drivers are needed to move a given number of people (limiting their scalability). They also cannot effectively handle peaks in high demand areas such as Tarneit North with the service becoming delayed or unavailable. Hence FlexiRide's potential to contribute to the transport task is over-hyped.
The move to zero emissions buses has been another theme with progress made. Ventura's Ivanhoe depot is an early starter. While other considerations were no doubt decisive for the choice of this location, it is noted that just one of the depot's nine routes (527) operates 7 days per week and even this drops to about every 50 minutes on Sundays. Thus marketing opportunities and synergies to associate electric buses with direct and frequent 7 day service are not possible unless networks are reformed and service hours and frequencies boosted.
What about the 'more attractive networks in high needs areas'?
Notable gains include new growth area routes in Tarneit, Melton, Clyde and Craigieburn/Mernda, the three step Mornington Peninsula bus upgrade, Endeavour Hills network reforms and major Craigieburn weekday frequency upgrades. The pending Healesville/Yarra Valley network simplifications and the results of 2022's budget for improved 733 and 767 frequencies will be other gains to look forward to.
Despite those one can't help thinking that the Bus Plan hasn't lived up to expectations, especially for the 'low hanging fruit' of simple service upgrades on high patronage routes in high needs areas. These are the sort of reforms that modest amounts like $200k to $2 million pa per route here and there could deliver as 'quick wins' limited only by the time it takes to recruit drivers and other operator staff.
Faster progress here would show the government is really genuine about better buses. While high needs areas do need the longer sort of bus reform that requires public consultation and buying new buses, there are a lot of 'loose ends' comprising very well used bus routes that run only 5, 5.5 or 6 days per week that would easily justify 7 day service. The first round of such off-peak upgrades could be boosted hours and frequencies only, with new bus purchases and route reforms done later.
Selected 'bus hours only' service upgrades in priority areas can deliver amongst the highest potential patronage gains on the network. The need for them is highest in diverse low income traditional safe Labor seats like Broadmeadows, Mulgrave and Dandenong. Routes in seats like these often missed out on 2006-2010 round of 'minimum service standards' upgrades so have a large service backlog despite their social needs and proof that the upgraded routes would get strong usage.
Politically the demographic in these 'taken for granted' areas is not as rusted on as it was with huge (~20%) drops in Labor's primary vote from these groups in both the 2022 federal and state elections. While it was electorally unsuccessful, the Coalition managed to tap into the bus backlog in safe Labor seats, with 2022 policies to upgrade bus routes in high needs areas including Routes 414, 536, 538, 542, 800 etc. Regrettably Labor did not follow suit with its own election bus service upgrade package.
However even on purely non-political metrics, such as patronage potential or social need, routes like these deserve first consideration for early 7 day upgrades even if it's a while before other network reforms start. Such action would also maintain momentum for the Bus Plan as the view from outside is it's fallen into a bit of a hole since the small but worthwhile upgrades of 2021 (along with the train timetable boosts earlier that year).
At the other end of the scale are bus reviews. The ones for north and north-east Melbourne announced last year will be massive pieces of work. Even though the areas selected have a lot of merit, I can't help thinking they've bitten off more than they can chew given that DTP's delivery capacity is currently so limited (unlike industrial-scale level crossing removals where it is high). It might be that concentrating on a larger number of smaller scale service uplifts and local network reforms might deliver more benefits sooner.
Very broad in-principle (ie not route specific) public consultation for these (and Mildura) happened last year a bit before the state election. We have been told to expect a summary of this feedback in early 2023 (so hopefully any day now!).
Having said that DTP is also consulting on other reviews such as Armstrong Creek / Torquay. This is more of a scale that will hopefully permit prompt implementation.
Conclusion
Bus reform can be good and it's great that we're doing it. But it needs more momentum including budget backing for added hours and frequency on well performing routes. Instead of waiting for the results of some (potentially drawn out) reviews, early delivery of simpler service boosts on existing routes in high patronage / high needs areas would help show people that Victoria's Bus Plan is truly alive and is delivering the services Victorians need.
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