Last week I listed examples of some super-cheap bus boosts that would benefit the network. You know you want it. How do you get it? Here's six tips to find timetables and routes ripe for improvement or reform.
1. Understand needs & target boosts to where most needed
More important than the raw number of people carried on a bus route is the passenger boardings per service hour the service attracts. Why? The latter is a better measure of productivity that cancels out route length effects. And it helps with priority setting if funds are limited. Boardings per service hour statistics per route are collected by DTP so the data already exists.
Average bus routes in Melbourne get about 1 passenger boarding per kilometre, or 22 boardings per hour (assuming 22 km/h speed). But highly productive routes can be double or even triple that.
Average bus routes in Melbourne get about 1 passenger boarding per kilometre, or 22 boardings per hour (assuming 22 km/h speed). But highly productive routes can be double or even triple that.
Start by taking all routes that are better than about 1.5 or 2 times average productivity and compare against timetables. Particular things to look for include (i) start and finish times, (ii) off-peak frequency, (iii) any frequency drop offs (particularly after 7pm and on weekends) and (iv) unusual or uncoordinated frequencies (eg every 23 minutes in areas where trains are every 20 minutes).
Devote special attention to routes that have high boardings/hour figures yet have 30, 40 or even 60 minute gaps in their timetables. That's a tell-tale sign of underservicing where longer hours and maximum 20 minute waits all week may be justified. You'll find many routes like these in suburbs like Tarneit, Craigieburn, Glenroy, Dandenong, Springvale and Box Hill.
In contrast areas like Brighton, Eltham, Diamond Creek or Lilydale have quieter routes. These areas definitely still need network reform and simplification but economy is more important as patronage gains per dollar spent won't be as strong. Thus it's important to prioritise and resource accordingly.
In contrast areas like Brighton, Eltham, Diamond Creek or Lilydale have quieter routes. These areas definitely still need network reform and simplification but economy is more important as patronage gains per dollar spent won't be as strong. Thus it's important to prioritise and resource accordingly.
2. Focus on 'hours only' gains possible without new buses
Often this means concentrating on off-peak (including weekend) upgrades. This is good as patronage elasticity per unit of off-peak service added is generally higher than adding peak service. You are also benefiting a diverse passenger base and are generally not needing to add to the vehicle fleet.
Because we've done relatively little of this in the last decade there remain dozens of cost-effective opportunities possible without going through the political problems of more complex network reform. This includes popular routes that finish midday Saturday and don't run Sundays despite strong usage.
Other routes, including those serving major shopping centres, do run seven days but only hourly on Sundays despite high usage and significant unmet demand. The network also remains riddled with non-standard public holiday arrangements and reduced summer timetables that add needless complexity arguably costing more than the money required to fix.
Other routes, including those serving major shopping centres, do run seven days but only hourly on Sundays despite high usage and significant unmet demand. The network also remains riddled with non-standard public holiday arrangements and reduced summer timetables that add needless complexity arguably costing more than the money required to fix.
It's right to do off-peak boosts first as 'low hanging fruit'. But don't discount the possibility of subsequent economical peak gains with a bit more thought. For example there may be scope to use school bus vehicles better in the early mornings and afternoon commuter peak. Having said that you can only go so far with fleet efficiencies; there's no getting away from the fact that new areas like Mt Atkinson need new routes (and therefore bus fleet expansion) for network coverage.
3. Boost 99% done routes to 100% for little money
Our network has many routes and lines whose timetables have 'loose ends'. That is they are almost up to a particular service standard but for the want of a handful of trips they fall short. Adding those trips (almost invariably off-peak) can cut waits and make service easier to brand and sell.
As an example, Melbourne local buses commonly run at least hourly or better 7 days until 9pm. However there remain routes that finish an hour or two earlier than the standard, especially on weekends. These are cheap wins, especially where the route is well used.
SmartBuses have better service standards but at least 4 routes narrowly miss out on those. Upgrades would again be cheap and end a 12 year hiatus in which none were added despite Melbourne's population growing by a million. The east-west divide also needs addressing with whole local government areas like the City of Wyndham having no SmartBuses versus seven in eastern areas like Manningham.
SmartBuses have better service standards but at least 4 routes narrowly miss out on those. Upgrades would again be cheap and end a 12 year hiatus in which none were added despite Melbourne's population growing by a million. The east-west divide also needs addressing with whole local government areas like the City of Wyndham having no SmartBuses versus seven in eastern areas like Manningham.
A similar story applies to rail timetables that are close to having 20 minute maximum waits but have some larger gaps that disqualify them. Fixing these loose ends is a way to get a simpler and more frequent service for very few extra trips added.
4. Seek economies and consider 'greater good' improvements
This is where we look at poorly used routes to see if usage is commensurate with the timetable operated. Especially where there are nearby higher usage potential routes with inferior timetables and the same bus operator is running both. In this case it might be possible to shift resources for an overall benefit.
Redistributing service resources can be controversial, although it is much easier to change a timetable than alter or delete a route. A staged approach over several timetable changes (as Perth does with its successful bus reforms) can smooth implementation if there are concerns about public acceptance of a change.
I described several cost-effective network pruning opportunities back in 2019. Most remain relevant today. If you want super-cheap changes without a lot of network disruption then ten tips were presented last week.
I described several cost-effective network pruning opportunities back in 2019. Most remain relevant today. If you want super-cheap changes without a lot of network disruption then ten tips were presented last week.
5. Perfect can't be the enemy of the better
If you find that simplifying routes in areas like Keysborough only frees up enough resources to get service from every 40 - 60 minutes to every 30 minutes (even though you might want every 20 minutes) should you still do it? I'd say generally yes, especially in areas with trains every 10 minutes where connections could still be harmonised.
Even small changes, like removing redundant kinks or deviations or boosting off-peak frequency or operating hours, should be done promptly even if these don't fix all problems with a route.
Staging of changes is acceptable to suit delivery capacity. Indeed given that DTP's capability is limited (unlike the project delivery agencies which have a 'mass production' mindset for removing level crossings etc) staging is the only way to get reform happening at all.
Even small changes, like removing redundant kinks or deviations or boosting off-peak frequency or operating hours, should be done promptly even if these don't fix all problems with a route.
Staging of changes is acceptable to suit delivery capacity. Indeed given that DTP's capability is limited (unlike the project delivery agencies which have a 'mass production' mindset for removing level crossings etc) staging is the only way to get reform happening at all.
Network reforms in Brimbank and adjoining parts of Melton, for example occurred not only in 2014 but for several years after in phases including simplifying service on Ballarat Rd and accommodating the new Caroline Springs Station. These changes (like 2015's in Wyndham) put the network in a good position for later service uplifts even if these can't be afforded at the time.
Another aspect of this point is that DTP needs enough corporate memory to recall 'loose ends' left from previous reform so they can boost services or extend routes just beyond scope of their first reform. Their 2020 Endeavour Hills network is an example where they left it at 90% done for the want of trifling amounts for better operating hours.
6. Essential to retain DTP capacity to deliver
Another aspect of this point is that DTP needs enough corporate memory to recall 'loose ends' left from previous reform so they can boost services or extend routes just beyond scope of their first reform. Their 2020 Endeavour Hills network is an example where they left it at 90% done for the want of trifling amounts for better operating hours.
6. Essential to retain DTP capacity to deliver
It may be possible to trim other parts of the Department but it's essential to retain internal capacity to properly deliver service reform. Even small changes that may appear cost-neutral on operating expenses require staff and capital to plan and implement. If anything there needs more not less capability as the portfolio emerges from a long stupor in which little service reform got done.
Having strong capability, especially when resources are limited, also means a service focus, even if external matters compete for attention. This means wariness towards ephemeral matters like apps and flexible route buses (which have only limited applicability due to high costs per passenger carried).
Bus electrification is very desirable for various reasons including lower operating costs. However it should be pursued in a manner that does not detract from the main game of cost-effectively delivering the most service to the most people.
Having strong capability, especially when resources are limited, also means a service focus, even if external matters compete for attention. This means wariness towards ephemeral matters like apps and flexible route buses (which have only limited applicability due to high costs per passenger carried).
Bus electrification is very desirable for various reasons including lower operating costs. However it should be pursued in a manner that does not detract from the main game of cost-effectively delivering the most service to the most people.
Any more tips for reforming bus networks? Leave them in the comments below!
1 comment:
The 216/220/234/246 are the true SmartBuses of Melbourne, all they lack are the bells and whistles e.g. signage/PIDs etc. - ironically, SmartBus vehicles new and old run almost exclusively on those routes, but the internal dot-matrix signs either continually spam passengers with the completely worthless message "Please remember to validate your MYKI" or they've been removed completely (in the case of the still-silver buses, which have been also stripped of their SmartBus logos).
The routes which actually fall under the SmartBus banner, the 703 and 90x series, are merely what the minimum standard for main road buses should be e.g. no worse than every 15 minutes during the day, no worse than half-hourly at night, and running until midnight in line with trains and trams.
The Easter weekend turns SmartBuses into a complete joke, with four days in a row of SmartBuses running every 30 minutes regardless of the time of day, meanwhile trains and trams are nominally every ten minutes during the day, services only dropping off around 8PM. Most SmartBuses finish around 9PM on Sundays, for whatever ridiculous reason such a thing even exists as opposed to a universal weekend/public holiday timetable e.g. a weekday timetable without peak rush.
For me in Ringwood, Easter gives a miracle of four consecutive days with trains every ten minutes to and from the city during daylight hours (albeit spoiled by bustitution this year courtesy of the Union station project). On the flip side, Easter also means four consecutive days of buses in Ringwood running no better than every 30/40/60 minutes, if they run at all.
Of course, lowly 30-minute SmartBuses have nothing on Melbourne's infamous 106-hour waits:
https://melbourneontransit.blogspot.com/2022/05/tt-163-waiting-for-days-hunt-for.html
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