Transport departments can juggle only a few balls at a time. At any one time some are in the air while others are dropped, staying on the ground for years if not decades.
Some matters are urgent and, while they have to be done, distract attention from what's important or gives most benefit. Some matters are active almost continuously while others spend most of the time grounded, getting only brief periods of airtime.
Below is an attempt to show the last 20+ years of juggling in the public transport portfolio. I take juggler snapshots every 2 or 3 years to show the main airborne and dropped balls. Many projects are long-term so I've taken some liberties with exact timings. Still it should still be a useful 'high level' history of the last two decades of priorities.
1999
In its second term the government became infatuated with UK-style franchising with the view that services could be run even cheaper, with payments dropping over time but tied to patronage growth. So, following some earlier franchising with Met Buses the government split and franchised the train and tram services. The fare system also started to be broken up with single operator only tickets made available.
Everything was fragmented with a confusing array of brands and no one really in charge of providing integrated information for passengers. Also dogging the government was the troublesome roll-out of the over-budget and over-time Metcard ticketing system. These preoccupations meant that movement on other matters important to passengers, including bus reform in most areas, was slow.
Metcard continued to be troublesome but improvements were made including making daily tickets available on trams, improved reliability and eventually removing single operator tickets. This was also the era of the much-hyped Melbourne 2030 plan that was predicated on a barely existing 'principal public transport network' whose expansion the government rarely funded.
Thus we were promised transport plans, some internal work was done, but we didn't get much. This was possibly because the Bracks government presented itself as financially responsible (like the Baillieu government) and broke some train and tram promises it made in 1999.
However it implemented a large number of 'oily rag' 7 day bus service upgrades in August 2002 which set the scene for bigger initiatives that came later. Ditto for two pilot SmartBus routes that proved a success despite still limited hours and frequencies. Small incremental upgrades don't always grow to become something bigger but they did in this case. Meaning that it's always important to press for what you can when you can.
The 2004 refranchising reversed the network splits that were born out of competition doctrine but had proved so operationally difficult, especially for trains. It also gave birth to Metlink which restored a brand identity to the network and improved passenger information through an ambitious signage project.
Regional rail was the big infrastructure focus, with Regional Fast Rail and Southern Cross Station construction either way. There was both a genuine need and a political imperative with Labor highly dependent on support from the larger regional centres and (in its first term) regional independents to hold government.
Metropolitan rail was however badly neglected with reliability falling off a cliff from late 2003, never to fully recover. Crowding was emerging and a few extra trips were shoehorned here and there into the timetable. But there wasn't the sort of wider timetable review, stepped up maintenance or investment in infrastructure that should have been done. And in keeping with the franchised responsibility lore at the time, government either said everything was fine or blamed the rail operator Connex.
Even while memory of Metcard's problems were still fresh, the government started work on a 'new ticketing solution' that we would to know as myki. This IT-heavy project took a lot of airtime with similar project management issues to Metcard. Meanwhile buses were in a bit of a lull despite a widening gap between modern travel needs (including 7 day trading) and timetables.
Rail in Melbourne wasn't so rosy. with reliability continuing its free-fall as patronage boomed. The state government was still flaky on rail maintenance and infrastructure. An example was a proposed third track to Dandenong which was promised (making front-page news) and then ditched.
Buses though were in their brightest time for a generation it not more. Meeting our Transport Challenges (which was effectively a bus plan) proposed 7 day service on all local routes, an ambitious cross-suburban SmartBus network and local bus network reviews. From mid 2006 it was rare for a month to pass without several bus routes getting 7 day upgrades. While these upgrades left a lot of loose ends (including no boosts to high patronage / high priority routes like the 800, a failure to address many network complexities and still low weekend frequencies) they were still transformative relative to anything that had happened before. Which was rewarded with major patronage growth.
These upgrades went hand in hand with Metlink, which rolled out bus timetables and local maps (since removed) at all bus stops and introduced an online journey planner. The latter introduced the potential for bus travel to people who would not have previously considered it since awareness of where buses went was low.
Public transport was emerging as a political crisis for the government which seemed asleep when it came to managing Melbourne's growth. The latter was universally realised when the Eddington Report and then the Victorian Transport Plan came out in 2008. Large scale rail infrastructure for Melbourne was at last on the table, though lead times were such that commuters experienced significant pain before the benefits were realised. Rail unreliability was subject to a parliamentary inquiry and contributed to the Brumby government's loss in 2010, especially for marginal Frankston line seats.
Bus improvements had continued, especially with regards to the roll-out of 'minimum standards' 7 day safety net service. This era also saw SmartBus orbitals and upgrades to Doncaster buses (with the latter a substitute for often requested rail). These initiatives were (largely) straight service upgrades and new routes. 16 comprehensive local area bus network reviews were done but implementation was patchy.
While stuff planned a couple of years prior was still being done with buses, it was this era that saw government interest flip from bus to rail (to address the latter's reliability woes which had emerged as a political problem for it). For example the later SmartBus stages (including the 'Blue Orbital' and the Werribee extension of the Green Orbital) as promised in 2006 were not a part of the 2008 plan. We saw an acceleration of rail timetable improvements with these becoming more and more ambitious in an attempt to untangle the network and simplify stopping patterns.
Some of the previous government's rail initiatives were now in place including new stations and the Sunbury electrification extension. The big change was simpler 'greenfields' train timetables on some lines and a big uptick in reliability, reversing most (but not all) of the slump since 2003. This upgrade included weekend trains every 10 minutes to Ringwood, Dandenong and Frankston, a service lift that no subsequent government has matched on the metropolitan network.
PSOs at stations during the evening was another major initiative. Governance was shaken up with the creation of PTV as a 'one stop shop' to replace previous complexities. Before the election the public transport authority concept had been championed by Greens and the Coalition but opposed by Labor who thought current arrangements were fine. The PTV roll-out included (yet another) rebranding. However this went further than Metlink's especially with regard to common livery.
Unlike Metro train services, very little new money was put into buses. However there was a greater willingness to do more radical bus network reform, as exemplified in areas like Point Cook, Brimbank, Wyndham (post RRL) and Transdev routes in 2014. The arrival of Transdev is a consequence of refranchising routes that were previously run by Melbourne Bus Link and National Bus. Repeating some past errors with franchising, the government went with a cut-price offer from an operator unable to clean or maintain its buses with problems emerging a few years later.
Party disunity and falling polls led to a leadership change with Denis Napthine replacing Ted Baillieu as premier. The new leader flagged increased infrastructure builds including East-West Link and the Melbourne Rail Link - a capacity-increasing Metro tunnel substitute that prioritised service to Fishermans Bend over the denser St Kilda Rd - Melbourne University axis.
Reminiscent of the Bracks period, there was significant interest in regional rail service but not in metropolitan rail or bus service. A 2015 greenfields Metro rail timetable that would have simplified stopping patterns and increased frequencies did not proceed. Transdev's 2015 greenfields bus network was also ditched (though admittedly this had problems including short-changing the west). Bus network reforms planned under Coalition for the Regional Rail Link in Geelong and Wyndham were saved as were those associated with Mernda electrification.
The lesson was that unless it was promised in 2014 or associated with a new station opening there wasn't going to be any bus network reform, even the low cost 'optimisation and simplification' type that happened under the previous government. And, except for 2016's Night Network, large scale metropolitan rail service upgrades all but ceased, leaving popular unreformed lines like Ringwood and Craigieburn with complex peak timetables and low Sunday morning frequencies respectively. Melbourne's inattention to service put us on a diverging course to Sydney which cut maximum waits from 30 to 15 min at many stations, even late at night, in its 2017 train timetable.
2018
By now the Andrews government reckoned it was on a winning formula, with it feeling vindicated after a large 2018 election win. It was running ahead of schedule on its level crossing removals and Metro Tunnel construction was continuing. Interest rates were super low, with it being easier to find $10b for major capital infrastructure than a couple of hundred million per year to transform train and bus services. It was a feast for infrastructure but a famine for service, with the backlog on buses growing rather than lessening. Political opposition and scrutiny were also weak, including in the public transport portfolio.
In this environment the government committed itself to its biggest ever round of major projects including the Western Rail Plan, the perpetually on and off again Airport Rail and, biggest of all, the Suburban Rail Loop. The last was of a scale beyond that thought possible or likely by much of the bureaucratic establishment. However with Melbourne's growth seemingly unstoppable it provided a vision that voters rewarded at the ballot box, especially in formerly Liberal heartland seats. You can see this above; all airborne balls are infrastructure related while those relating to service have all been dropped.
Institutionally the government dismantled PTV, folding its functions into an enlarged Department of Transport. However the shift to infrastructure construction made dedicated authorities for specific projects the best funded and most powerful in the portfolio. DoT was big but not necessarily right at the centre of things, with the secretary resigning shortly after the Suburban Rail Loop, which was conceived outside it, being announced.
Interest in patronage and operations was less with contract supervision reaching a low point during Transdev's fleet management crisis. Construction also meant frequent bus replacements making much of the rail network unreliable and thus unmarketable for much of the time. This and the pandemic has made previous patronage projections look optimistic, as opposed to gross underestimation of forecasts done about 15 years prior.
2021
2021 continues the infrastructure program of 2018 except that the government had also picked up a few service balls. Implemented examples include V/Line and Night Network bus reform. A promised example was the Bus Plan. This had some low cost optimisation improvements on the Transdev network introduced in 2021. And, from the 2020 budget's low point for service, there were small increases for buses in 2021 and again in the 2022 budgets.
This period also saw some frequency improvements on V/Line and, even rarer, off-peak on certain Metro train lines. Cutting maximum waits on the Frankston, Williamstown and Werribee lines, and simplifying City Loop operations they represent the biggest progress towards greenfields Metro train timetables since the government put such service development work in the deep freeze in 2015.
Overall it seemed that there might have been a more even split between infrastructure and service in the government's transport priorities and the juggling above reflects this. But as you'll see in 2023 this was not to last, with progress on the bus plan slower than expected.
2023
This year saw a post-election budget. It was a time for honouring certain election commitments (eg the $9.20 regional fare cap) and scaling back or deferring some projects dependent on federal funding. Economic conditions had deteriorated with higher interest rates and rising project costs placing pressure on budgets. No matter what though, the government continues to strongly back its signature Suburban Rail Loop despite the expense (most of which will be incurred in future years once construction gets seriously under way).
Increased recurrent spending, such as what a swing to service would require, was not a priority in 2023. Thus some of the hopes of 2021 have not yet been met and there has been a changing of the balls. The bus network reform one especially appears dropped while priorities like bus recontracting and zero emissions buses (neither of which have the same direct passenger benefit outcome) have assumed centre stage.
We'll only know for sure whether this is a temporary setback or more enduring next year. Things to look out for include DTP's finalisation of the 'Bus Reform Implementation Plan' and whether this is considered important enough to win budget funding in 2024.
Summary
The government can only keep a few balls in the air at any one time. If it picks up a new ball it must drop another. However some balls have had much more airtime than others. Franchising/contracting, ticketing/fares and various regional rail projects have been most enduring. Major infrastructure projects, like level crossing removals, have become another constant in the last decade.
Organisational reform and restructuring are another almost continual background activity, though thankfully we have shaken off the valueless habit of perpetual rebranding (remember the aborted Transport for Victoria anyone?). Organisational restructuring is mostly unproductive though department heads earnestly speak to their staff as if it matters. And there's no awareness of the need to preserve arrangements when they hit on a model that is mostly effective (eg PTV as a separate authority).
Even though they are arguably the most important balls (in the sense that they have the highest prospects of benefiting the most passengers and boosting patronage) metropolitan train and bus service reform and frequency has had the most time languishing on the ground. Moss is growing on some like the 800 bus, which has been passed over for over three decades. Similar can be said for tram priority and accessibility. Sometimes it gets talked about with some good things done but rarely do these matters get the sustained attention necessary to get network-wide benefits (unlike say level crossing removals).
I've attempted to classify a few balls here. These are on a matrix to differentiate those that I think have the greatest network importance and patronage returns to those that seem to have had the greatest emphasis. Everyone will have a different view on their exact placement but it's reasonable to conclude that not everything that is done the most often or has received the greatest attention has had the most impact.
1 comment:
On a similar theme to tram DDA, bus DDA.
In a lot of outer suburbs, particularly in poorly-maintained and/or car-centric suburbs, the bus stop itself comprises of nothing more than a pole in the nature strip. Occasionally, there is a proper bus stop, complete with shelter, on a concrete slab, but no footpath connecting the slab to anything else, often resulting in the bus stop turning into an insurmountable island with a wheelchair user having to wait on the grass next to the stop.
Additionally, I have witnessed several bus drivers refuse mobility scooters on the grounds that their brand spanking new low-floor DDA-compliant bus doesn't kneel (yeah, right) - more like they can't be stuffed getting up to deploy the ramp because it might make the near-empty bus two minutes late, shock horror. Of course, they have no choice when it's an actual wheelchair, but even then there's discrimination whenever rail replacement buses occur, with mobility-impaired users often being forced into free (paid for by PTV) maxi taxis instead, sometimes with waits exceeding half an hour, all while half a dozen buses of different shapes, sizes and floor heights stop, set down and pick up passengers and drive off.
Another thing which is particularly lacking is internal announcements and electronic displays on non-SmartBus routes (as I mentioned in the previous blog post), with metropolitan bus PIDs, both and at bus stops and on-board buses, lagging behind trains and trams for two decades. For example, Doncaster Park & Ride has a large LED sign dedicated solely to SmartBus services (as is common across the SmartBus network), but no provision to display other bus routes sharing the same stop like the 207 (or even the lesser ones like the 284); the last time I was there, there weren't even any paper timetables available (unless they can only be acquired from the counter, which I didn't check as my bus was already there). The signs themselves also need to be modernised, as the dot-matrix text is low-resolution and cannot easily be read unless up close (this is also an issue with the tiny LCD monitors the TramTracker system uses, these are also too small to be of much use unless you are already at the tram stop and right next to the sign).
Another issue across the board is the provision, and lack thereof, of inter-modal PIDs. For example, the next tram information at connecting train stations is often placed outside the paid area, or even outside the station entrance (assuming a modern trenched or skyrailed station where the platforms are nowhere near the entrance) and almost always facing away from the platforms or hidden from view (for example, the 109 tram sign at Box Hill station is located in the concourse opposite the McDonald's window; it is also one of the rare occasions of the sign being (just) inside the paid area), and usually consists of only sign one sign per platform and hidden from view from the train. Even when the monitor is visible from the train, the text is often too low of a resolution to be read, for example platform 1 at Hawthorn where you have to be in the last or second last carriage with the train at near walking pace to be able to read anything without getting off the train. Naturally, zero provision has been made for a similar system for buses, aforementioned SmartBus signs aside (which are always at street level outside the station). Also in the same manner, the next train PIDs are often only available on the platforms or the concourse, rather than in the bus interchange (Ringwood long being an exception, having had next train PIDs in the bus interchange since the Connex era), and as mentioned, bus/tram info is nonexistent on station platforms aside from "dumb" signs near the entrance/exit with nothing more than route numbers/destinations with arrows pointing to the approximate location of the bus/tram stops.
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