Victorians in Prahran and Werribee will elect their new state Legislative Assembly member of parliament in by-elections to happen on Saturday February 8. This is due to the resignation of Greens MP Sam Hibbins in Prahran and the retirement of former Treasurer Tim Pallas in Werribee.
Prahran and Werribee are chalk and cheese. Seat descriptions and transport needs discussed below:
Prahran
Seat description
Prahran is a densely populated inner suburban seat with an abundance of trains, trams and some buses. Containing a mix of 'old money' Liberals, gay libertarians, young renting professionals and public housing tenants, past elections have been genuine three-way contests between Labor, Liberals and Greens. Significantly, Labor won't be standing this time, with former Labor MP-turned independent candidate Tony Lupton hoping to attract politically homeless ALP voters. There's a slew of other independents and minor parties standing too. Tally Room website candidate list and by-election discussion here.
Of interest to us was that Mr Hibbins was his party's spokesperson on transport. Potentially a fantastic portfolio for an active Greens MP, Hibbins did not make full use of it, especially on public transport service issues under a government with a very contestable record. Instead Hibbins basically spruiked for the electric car lobby and lacked a vision for buses, the nearest and often only public transport for most Melburnians. Few public transport advocates would lament his departure.
Prahran
Seat description
Prahran is a densely populated inner suburban seat with an abundance of trains, trams and some buses. Containing a mix of 'old money' Liberals, gay libertarians, young renting professionals and public housing tenants, past elections have been genuine three-way contests between Labor, Liberals and Greens. Significantly, Labor won't be standing this time, with former Labor MP-turned independent candidate Tony Lupton hoping to attract politically homeless ALP voters. There's a slew of other independents and minor parties standing too. Tally Room website candidate list and by-election discussion here.
Of interest to us was that Mr Hibbins was his party's spokesperson on transport. Potentially a fantastic portfolio for an active Greens MP, Hibbins did not make full use of it, especially on public transport service issues under a government with a very contestable record. Instead Hibbins basically spruiked for the electric car lobby and lacked a vision for buses, the nearest and often only public transport for most Melburnians. Few public transport advocates would lament his departure.
Service needs
Prahran is lucky in that it has not just radial but also cross-suburban train and tram transport. Buses play a relatively minor role but there are some gaps they fill. Key issues for the network centre around upgrading what is already there, with some key priorities being the following:
* Chapel Street Route 78 tram accessibility and speed upgrade
* Route 246 bus upgraded to run every 10 min 7 days per week
* Getting rid of the 40 minute Sunday morning gaps on the Sandringham line and ensuring that it benefits under the Metro Tunnel timetable later this year (including through-routing to Southern Cross and trains every 10 minutes as per the 2016 Metro Tunnel business case)
* Improved evening and Sunday morning tram frequencies (starting with getting 30 min to 20 min)
Other upgrades likely to benefit Prahran residents include a second (northern) entrance for South Yarra Station and reviving government interest in the Park Street tram link for tram network reform.
* Improved evening and Sunday morning tram frequencies (starting with getting 30 min to 20 min)
Other upgrades likely to benefit Prahran residents include a second (northern) entrance for South Yarra Station and reviving government interest in the Park Street tram link for tram network reform.
Werribee
Seat description
Seat description
About 30km west of the CBD. The centre of an outer suburban growth area transformed by migrant families attracted by the area's affordable housing. Living costs, transport services and infrastructure, schools and health are major issues. The public transport that runs is well used but service frequencies lag the east. Also the area's last major rail infrastructure improvement, the Regional Rail Link, opened nearly a decade ago. Politically Werribee has been safe Labor but, in common with other outer areas, the ALP now relies on preferences due to a declining primary vote. All major parties will be standing in Werribee. The Liberals, racked by leadership issues over Christmas, have only just announced a candidate whose had only a few weeks to get a profile. Independents and minor party candidates will also be standing. Tally Room website by-election candidate list and discussion here.
Mr Pallas was a member of the Andrews government. Labor's political achievement was turning eastern marginals into safe seats while retaining its north and western heartland despite an eroding primary vote. This was aided by generally weak Liberal campaigning, disunity, ageing volunteers and unfavourable voter demographic trends. Our single member electoral system means that you can have have some primary vote erosion without any seats being lost. However once primary vote percentage gets down to (say) the 30s then there's an avalanche effect where seats fall quickly, especially if there are strong local independents with disciplined preference flows.
Service needs
Werribee is served by the electrified Metro Werribee line and the diesel V/Line Geelong line. Trains on both are typically every 20 minutes, with a more frequent peak service. Both are very well used but have less service than lines in the east which have a 15 or even 10 minute all day frequency. There are community calls for an extension of rail electrification and new stations such as at Black Forest Road to better serve the growth area of Mambourin. To this end the government announced a Western Rail Plan in 2018 but local sentiment is that the government has done more for the east than the west.
The bus network was overhauled in 2015 with some incremental improvements since. However local routes mostly operate every 40 minutes off-peak with luckier corridors every 20 minutes. Evening service is limited with 9pm finishes on most routes most nights of the week. Werribee's bus routes are amongst the busiest in Melbourne on a boardings per hour basis. However it has no premium service SmartBus routes, unlike in the north or east. Also substantial areas of new estates, notably Mambourin, have no public transport at all.
Werribee has not been short of proposals for better trains and buses. For instance the Western Rail Plan from the government and Metro 2 proposals from the Rail Futures Institute for rail.
The most radical bus proposal is that from the UoM Melbourne School of Design and backed by the FOE Sustainable Cities campaign. The concept is a recast bus network with frequent but widely spaced main road routes. Analysis shows it allows many trips to be made faster than now. The main con is that the flexible routes it proposes for local coverage don't have a very good record of success in Wyndham, with its one FlexiRide at Tarneit to be replaced with fixed routes thanks to GAIC funding.
Still the UoM network and the advocacy for it could inspire a more pragmatic bus network model in Wyndham that delivers a step change for local buses. Ingredients could include:
a. A genuinely frequent long-hours network based on existing direct routes that is highly promotable
b. Retention of most if not all existing local routes since these are excellent performers relative to other bus routes in Melbourne
c. Improved access to job areas such as Laverton North
d. Coverage upgrades in areas such as Mambourin that have no or limited buses
The above might be more sellable to the government and less disruptive for existing passengers. Another benefit is the potential for it to be staged, meaning benefits can start sooner.
The frequent centrepiece of such a network model for Wyndham might be "The W", as shown below.
The bus network was overhauled in 2015 with some incremental improvements since. However local routes mostly operate every 40 minutes off-peak with luckier corridors every 20 minutes. Evening service is limited with 9pm finishes on most routes most nights of the week. Werribee's bus routes are amongst the busiest in Melbourne on a boardings per hour basis. However it has no premium service SmartBus routes, unlike in the north or east. Also substantial areas of new estates, notably Mambourin, have no public transport at all.
Werribee has not been short of proposals for better trains and buses. For instance the Western Rail Plan from the government and Metro 2 proposals from the Rail Futures Institute for rail.
The most radical bus proposal is that from the UoM Melbourne School of Design and backed by the FOE Sustainable Cities campaign. The concept is a recast bus network with frequent but widely spaced main road routes. Analysis shows it allows many trips to be made faster than now. The main con is that the flexible routes it proposes for local coverage don't have a very good record of success in Wyndham, with its one FlexiRide at Tarneit to be replaced with fixed routes thanks to GAIC funding.
Still the UoM network and the advocacy for it could inspire a more pragmatic bus network model in Wyndham that delivers a step change for local buses. Ingredients could include:
a. A genuinely frequent long-hours network based on existing direct routes that is highly promotable
b. Retention of most if not all existing local routes since these are excellent performers relative to other bus routes in Melbourne
c. Improved access to job areas such as Laverton North
d. Coverage upgrades in areas such as Mambourin that have no or limited buses
The above might be more sellable to the government and less disruptive for existing passengers. Another benefit is the potential for it to be staged, meaning benefits can start sooner.
The frequent centrepiece of such a network model for Wyndham might be "The W", as shown below.
Three existing routes (150, 170 & 190) could be upgraded. Initially with longer hours and maximum 20 minute waits at any time, and then upgraded to every 10 minutes 7 days. Buses would carry frequent network livery, stops would be bigger and more comfortable and there would be improved information at all stops. Priority with articulated buses could provide a tram-like product.
A rerouted 400 has a weaker catchment so might be less frequent but there may be opportunities to extend it south, such as to Point Cook Town Centre. The Laverton end of the existing Route 400 could be replaced with new route to Tarneit Station via Laverton North and Dohertys Rd (partly the GAIC-funded Tarneit FlexiRide replacement).
Supplementing the W could be major upgrades to other key bus routes such as 152, 160, 180, 192, 494, 495 and 497. Services every 20 minutes all week and a midnight finish would make maximum use of the existing bus fleet.
A genuine integrated network also needs improved train frequencies, building on the December 2024 boost to Geelong line weekend services. High priorities here could include earlier weekend starts and upgraded evening frequency on the Geelong line and boosting Werribee Metro trains to every 10 minutes for most of the day (similar to Frankston line now). And on the infrastructure side extending the Werribee line to Wyndham Vale could deliver a station at Black Forest Rd, with a large unique catchment.
Conclusion
Both Prahran and Werribee will be interesting by-elections. It remains to be seen how much transport will feature in the three or so weeks remaining. It would seem that the Greens will be using both for their 50 cent fare offer while we so far haven't heard anything from Labor and Liberal. However just because something isn't promised by the government in a by-election campaign doesn't mean that it won't happen, with the Route 800 bus in the seat of Mulgrave being an example of success.
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