Last week and this has been the budget estimates hearings. The time when ministers explain and are asked questions on the recent state budget and the government's record generally. Sometimes additional information can come out or fine points get clarified.
For example last Thursday we learned that the Metro Tunnel will open with all stations operating (there was some media speculation that this wouldn't be so) and that the 463 bus would be extended to Caroline Springs. Watchers also heard the customer experience jargon term 'hypercare' in relation to getting people used to the Metro Tunnel.
Also of interest was the government defending its record on Metro train service frequency. In a nutshell it hasn't been good, with falling service per capita. The big picture is this:
Every time people have asked for shorter gaps between trains (like Sydney or Perth already have) the government has said that this or that infrastructure project must be done first. Or that it will all be amazing after the Metro Tunnel opens - people just need to be patient.
But there's only so long that the government can string people along, and ten years is more than enough. Endless line shutdowns and few if any service improvements at the end of them is wearing thin with passengers. Even the cheapest timetable upgrades that would halve the longest waits on key lines got pushed into the never-never as government interest in Metro frequency improvements collapsed after 2015-2016.
Anyway that's the narrative you've read about here and elsewhere.
More trains more often - the record
Also of interest was the government defending its record on Metro train service frequency. In a nutshell it hasn't been good, with falling service per capita. The big picture is this:
Melbourne's population grew 18% since 2015
Metro train service only grew 9% since 2015
Metro train service only grew 9% since 2015
Every time people have asked for shorter gaps between trains (like Sydney or Perth already have) the government has said that this or that infrastructure project must be done first. Or that it will all be amazing after the Metro Tunnel opens - people just need to be patient.
But there's only so long that the government can string people along, and ten years is more than enough. Endless line shutdowns and few if any service improvements at the end of them is wearing thin with passengers. Even the cheapest timetable upgrades that would halve the longest waits on key lines got pushed into the never-never as government interest in Metro frequency improvements collapsed after 2015-2016.
Anyway that's the narrative you've read about here and elsewhere.
More trains more often - the record
What does the government say about this?
Last Thursday the minister showed a slide depicting its record of train service additions over the last decade. These are shown in the small circles (blue for Metro, purple for V/Line). The larger circles represent initiatives funded in last month's budget (to be implemented).
The numbers are weekly services added. That can make even small service additions look big. For example adding one return trip per day on one line is 14 extra trips per week. Multiply by 15 lines to get a massive 210 trips per week.
The numbers are weekly services added. That can make even small service additions look big. For example adding one return trip per day on one line is 14 extra trips per week. Multiply by 15 lines to get a massive 210 trips per week.
That's a handy trick to make it look a big deal. Until you realise that because Metro runs over 15000 trips per week, that's just a 1.4% uplift in service. Helpful but not revolutionary.
The asterisked note at the bottom left is hard to read but says that 50 of the 200 weekend services funded in the 2022-23 budget are still in delivery and are not shown. These include additional weekend V/Line services for Seymour, Shepparton, Traralgon and Bairnsdale.
You could try clicking on the screenshot below but it may still be unclear. So I'll go through it below, starting with the ten year record.
After the 2025-budgeted Upfield and Craigieburn boosts happen the Mernda and Hurstbridge lines will stand out as having the longest waits outside the peaks, particularly on Sunday mornings. This is notwithstanding previous gains for Mernda (175) and Hurstbridge (75 weekly trips). This is because, Night Network excepted, all these increases were on weekdays, mostly peak and shoulder peak, after duplication works in 2023. The government can claim a major achievement in 2018's Mernda electrification, but it missed the opportunity then to add the relatively few weekly trips needed to cut maximum waits on the rest of the line.
The Burnley group has had a lot of level crossing removals such that the Lilydale line is now level crossing free. This included a consolidation of stations with Surrey Hills and Mont Albert combined into the new Union station. Peak timetables remain complex with numerous stopping patterns and interpeak gaps beyond Ringwood remain at 30 minutes - longer than two regional lines. Box Hill has built up but its train timetable has remained basically stagnant, inferior at night to even Fawkner Cemetery once the Upfield line gets its evening frequency boost. In the decade from 2015 Lilydale gained 45 services per week, or approximately 2 each way trips per weekday after the Night Network trips are excluded. It's not a lot, especially as the Burnley group now has a lot of marginal seats along it and Box Hill is now densely populated and high-rise.
Train services versus population growth
2025's funded upgrades (and the Metro Tunnel)
The asterisked note at the bottom left is hard to read but says that 50 of the 200 weekend services funded in the 2022-23 budget are still in delivery and are not shown. These include additional weekend V/Line services for Seymour, Shepparton, Traralgon and Bairnsdale.
You could try clicking on the screenshot below but it may still be unclear. So I'll go through it below, starting with the ten year record.
2015 - 2024 service additions
Below I'll explain what the Metro network got over the last decade in terms of service.
First let's look at what the whole network got thanks to Night Network in 2016. This added hourly weekend trips on all lines between about 1am and 5am Saturdays and 1am to 7am Sundays. That's roughly 24 trips per week added on every line (about 6 each way multiplied by 2 for return, multiplied by 2 again for each day).
Thus if a line has about this number of trips added between 2015 and 2024 you can attribute its entire increase to this one Night Network initiative. This applies on the Belgrave (+18), Alamein (+23) and possibly Glen Waverley (+30) lines. You could say that leaving aside Night Network service on these lines has been stagnant over the last decade.
Now to other lines. Sunbury line got 68 extra trains per week. Over 40 of these would be non-Night Network. Some could have been evening extensions circa 2016 (previous to that about half the evening trains terminated at Watergardens, giving Sunbury only an hourly service) with the others being some extra peak or shoulder peak runs. The best is still to come for Sunbury with this line likely to be the biggest proportional beneficiary from the new Metro Tunnel timetable.
Also awaiting the Metro Tunnel are the Pakenham and Cranbourne lines. These got a combined 201 extra trips per week. Subtracting Night Network drops this to about 150 trips per week extra. Examples of additions include (i) just after the opening of Skyrail in 2018 (more weeknight trips), (ii) some further boosts in 2020 and (iii) 50 more weekly services when the Cranbourne duplication got done in 2022. None of these changed maximum waits (30 min weekend evenings and up to 70 min Sunday mornings) but expectations are high that the Metro Tunnel timetable starting later this year will shorten these.
Upfield can claim 57 extra trips over the decade to 2024. Subtracting Night Network that's about 30 trips per week or 3 each way per weekday. These contributed to some minor peak frequency upgrades (ie from every 20 to every 15 min approximately).
First let's look at what the whole network got thanks to Night Network in 2016. This added hourly weekend trips on all lines between about 1am and 5am Saturdays and 1am to 7am Sundays. That's roughly 24 trips per week added on every line (about 6 each way multiplied by 2 for return, multiplied by 2 again for each day).
Thus if a line has about this number of trips added between 2015 and 2024 you can attribute its entire increase to this one Night Network initiative. This applies on the Belgrave (+18), Alamein (+23) and possibly Glen Waverley (+30) lines. You could say that leaving aside Night Network service on these lines has been stagnant over the last decade.
Now to other lines. Sunbury line got 68 extra trains per week. Over 40 of these would be non-Night Network. Some could have been evening extensions circa 2016 (previous to that about half the evening trains terminated at Watergardens, giving Sunbury only an hourly service) with the others being some extra peak or shoulder peak runs. The best is still to come for Sunbury with this line likely to be the biggest proportional beneficiary from the new Metro Tunnel timetable.
Also awaiting the Metro Tunnel are the Pakenham and Cranbourne lines. These got a combined 201 extra trips per week. Subtracting Night Network drops this to about 150 trips per week extra. Examples of additions include (i) just after the opening of Skyrail in 2018 (more weeknight trips), (ii) some further boosts in 2020 and (iii) 50 more weekly services when the Cranbourne duplication got done in 2022. None of these changed maximum waits (30 min weekend evenings and up to 70 min Sunday mornings) but expectations are high that the Metro Tunnel timetable starting later this year will shorten these.
Upfield can claim 57 extra trips over the decade to 2024. Subtracting Night Network that's about 30 trips per week or 3 each way per weekday. These contributed to some minor peak frequency upgrades (ie from every 20 to every 15 min approximately).
Werribee / Williamstown / Frankston - meant to get a boost in 2015 to coincide with RRL but didn't with some argy-bargy over Frankston trains running direct or via the loop (or maybe half and half - which was tried and proved a mess).
It stalling on the Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail) was the single biggest reason for this government's record on Metro train frequencies being so undistinguished to date. Anyway things finally got tidied up in 2021 with evening and Sunday morning maximum waits cut to 20 minutes on all three lines and peak services for Altona and Williamstown restored from 22 to a simpler 20 minute headway. This and other boosts gave Werribee 186 extra weekly trips, Williamstown 119 extra and Frankston 117 more.
It stalling on the Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail) was the single biggest reason for this government's record on Metro train frequencies being so undistinguished to date. Anyway things finally got tidied up in 2021 with evening and Sunday morning maximum waits cut to 20 minutes on all three lines and peak services for Altona and Williamstown restored from 22 to a simpler 20 minute headway. This and other boosts gave Werribee 186 extra weekly trips, Williamstown 119 extra and Frankston 117 more.
After the 2025-budgeted Upfield and Craigieburn boosts happen the Mernda and Hurstbridge lines will stand out as having the longest waits outside the peaks, particularly on Sunday mornings. This is notwithstanding previous gains for Mernda (175) and Hurstbridge (75 weekly trips). This is because, Night Network excepted, all these increases were on weekdays, mostly peak and shoulder peak, after duplication works in 2023. The government can claim a major achievement in 2018's Mernda electrification, but it missed the opportunity then to add the relatively few weekly trips needed to cut maximum waits on the rest of the line.
The Burnley group has had a lot of level crossing removals such that the Lilydale line is now level crossing free. This included a consolidation of stations with Surrey Hills and Mont Albert combined into the new Union station. Peak timetables remain complex with numerous stopping patterns and interpeak gaps beyond Ringwood remain at 30 minutes - longer than two regional lines. Box Hill has built up but its train timetable has remained basically stagnant, inferior at night to even Fawkner Cemetery once the Upfield line gets its evening frequency boost. In the decade from 2015 Lilydale gained 45 services per week, or approximately 2 each way trips per weekday after the Night Network trips are excluded. It's not a lot, especially as the Burnley group now has a lot of marginal seats along it and Box Hill is now densely populated and high-rise.
Below is all the implemented Metro service gains put on a table. They add to 1252 per week. Is this a big or a small service uplift, noting that we are talking about ten years worth? To know we need to know how many services Metro run to arrive at a percentage increase. Metro currently claim 'over 15000 weekly services' on their Linked-In.
Comparing the 1252 trips with an assumed 14000 base in 2015 we arrive at a 9% increase across the Metro network. In contrast population grew by 18% over that time. Thus we can say that Metro service provision has grown at only half the rate of population. In other words a significant fall in service per capita and a lag behind cities such as Sydney and Perth whose stations typically enjoy more hours of frequent service per week.
Comparing the 1252 trips with an assumed 14000 base in 2015 we arrive at a 9% increase across the Metro network. In contrast population grew by 18% over that time. Thus we can say that Metro service provision has grown at only half the rate of population. In other words a significant fall in service per capita and a lag behind cities such as Sydney and Perth whose stations typically enjoy more hours of frequent service per week.
Signs that this government may finally be taking service frequency seriously appeared in last month's state budget. As you can read here this funded a decent package of Metro train and bus service boosts in Melbourne's north and west plus an interpeak boost on the Sandringham line.
The annotated map tabled in PAEC listed gains for Werribee, Craigieburn, Upfield and Sandringham lines. As already publicised, Werribee will gain higher peak frequencies with 20 trips added. 20 trips per 5 day week is 4 per day. Two trips per hour extra are needed to boost peak frequency from 6 to 8 trains per hour (ie the 10 to 7.5 min frequency improvement promised). That 4 extra trips per day means the boosted peak service applies for one hour in both directions or two hours in the peak direction only (if train numbers and stabling permits this).
Craigieburn and Upfield are shown with 100 trips added to deliver a 20 min maximum wait. However I'm not sure about the workings - just to get rid of the 30-40 min evening and Sunday morning gaps would likely require 70 more trips per week on each line. And that doesn't count the shoulder peak uplifts that the Craigieburn line will be getting. So the actual increase may be more than indicated. Unless something creative is done like spreading some peak trips into the shoulder peaks and evening.
The Sandringham line gets an interpeak weekday uplift from 4 to 6 trains per hour. The number of increased trips is not readable. But you can work out that it's 4 trips extra per hour (accounting for both directions) over a 6 hour span and 5 day week then it's in the region of 120 trips per week added.
The above adds to roughly 250 weekly trips funded in the budget on lines other than the Metro Tunnel. That is just under a 2% increase on Metro's current 15 000 weekly trips.
That 250 trips leaves about 1000 more weekly trips needed for Melbourne to return to the per capita Metro service that this government inherited when it won office in 2014.
When it faces the people in November 2026 will this government even be able to claim that they maintained per capita Metro train service? With the per capita decline to date, the answer depends heavily on the service rebound the Metro Tunnel timetable will deliver later this year.
That wasn't on the minister's budget estimates presentation slide. Hence the absence of big blobs near Sunbury and Dandenong. But they will likely exceed the ~250 increase. Some hypothetical back-of-envelope examples:
BASIC METRO TUNNEL SERVICE
(Watergardens - Dandenong every 10 min day/20 min night with higher peak frequency)
* Boost Sunbury line interpeak weekday services from every 20 to every 10 min: ~200 extra trips per week (+3 trains per hour over 6 hours x2 for each way x 5 days of the week)
* Double Sunbury line weekend services: ~200 trips (based on doubling current service of approx 50 trips each way each weekend day).
* Boost Sunbury line weeknight services from every 30 min to every 20 min: ~40 trips (+1 train per hour over 4 hours x 2 for each way x 5 days of the week)
* Boost Cranbourne & Pakenham weekend evening & Sun am from every 30 to every 20 min: ~60 trips (+1 train per hour over 5 hours x 2 for each way x 2 nights of the week x2 lines & Sunday am uplift)
Total ~500 extra trips per week
The annotated map tabled in PAEC listed gains for Werribee, Craigieburn, Upfield and Sandringham lines. As already publicised, Werribee will gain higher peak frequencies with 20 trips added. 20 trips per 5 day week is 4 per day. Two trips per hour extra are needed to boost peak frequency from 6 to 8 trains per hour (ie the 10 to 7.5 min frequency improvement promised). That 4 extra trips per day means the boosted peak service applies for one hour in both directions or two hours in the peak direction only (if train numbers and stabling permits this).
Craigieburn and Upfield are shown with 100 trips added to deliver a 20 min maximum wait. However I'm not sure about the workings - just to get rid of the 30-40 min evening and Sunday morning gaps would likely require 70 more trips per week on each line. And that doesn't count the shoulder peak uplifts that the Craigieburn line will be getting. So the actual increase may be more than indicated. Unless something creative is done like spreading some peak trips into the shoulder peaks and evening.
The Sandringham line gets an interpeak weekday uplift from 4 to 6 trains per hour. The number of increased trips is not readable. But you can work out that it's 4 trips extra per hour (accounting for both directions) over a 6 hour span and 5 day week then it's in the region of 120 trips per week added.
The above adds to roughly 250 weekly trips funded in the budget on lines other than the Metro Tunnel. That is just under a 2% increase on Metro's current 15 000 weekly trips.
That 250 trips leaves about 1000 more weekly trips needed for Melbourne to return to the per capita Metro service that this government inherited when it won office in 2014.
When it faces the people in November 2026 will this government even be able to claim that they maintained per capita Metro train service? With the per capita decline to date, the answer depends heavily on the service rebound the Metro Tunnel timetable will deliver later this year.
That wasn't on the minister's budget estimates presentation slide. Hence the absence of big blobs near Sunbury and Dandenong. But they will likely exceed the ~250 increase. Some hypothetical back-of-envelope examples:
BASIC METRO TUNNEL SERVICE
(Watergardens - Dandenong every 10 min day/20 min night with higher peak frequency)
* Boost Sunbury line interpeak weekday services from every 20 to every 10 min: ~200 extra trips per week (+3 trains per hour over 6 hours x2 for each way x 5 days of the week)
* Double Sunbury line weekend services: ~200 trips (based on doubling current service of approx 50 trips each way each weekend day).
* Boost Sunbury line weeknight services from every 30 min to every 20 min: ~40 trips (+1 train per hour over 4 hours x 2 for each way x 5 days of the week)
* Boost Cranbourne & Pakenham weekend evening & Sun am from every 30 to every 20 min: ~60 trips (+1 train per hour over 5 hours x 2 for each way x 2 nights of the week x2 lines & Sunday am uplift)
Total ~500 extra trips per week
Any Metro Tunnel timetable that does not deliver at least the Basic service above will be laughed at. The government should be smart enough to know this given its political and financial investment in the project over its entire decade in office. Demonstrated success with the Metro Tunnel switch-on will also boost its credibility with regards to other transport projects, particularly the Suburban Rail Loop, which it needs right now. Furthermore, in addition to the ~250 weekly Metro services on other lines that this year's budget funds, the 750 trip total will deliver more then half the service needed to return to 2014's Metro service per capita number.
Justifying the Metro Tunnel's construction costs, maximising land use and development synergies and unlocking the wider CBD benefits of complementary tram network reform all require something better with high all week frequencies like we've never seen before. Potential ingredients of such an enhanced timetable (and the approximate number of weekly trips added) are below.
ENHANCED METRO TUNNEL SERVICE
(Watergardens - Dandenong every 5 min day/10 min night with higher peak frequency)
All the above plus:
* Boost Watergardens - Dandenong weeknight service to every 10 min to late: ~200 trips (+3 trains per hour over 3 hours x 2 each way x 5 days per week x 2 lines)
* Running Metro Tunnel central section every 5 min 10am-4pm weekdays: ~360 trips (+6 trains per hour over 6 hours x2 each way x 5 days of week)
* Running Metro Tunnel central section every 5 min 9am - 9pm weekends: ~300 trips (+6 trains per hour over 12 hours x2 each way x 2 days of week)
* Peak upgrades as needed to address crowding (not counted)
* Upgrades and reforms to connecting trains, trams and buses to improve network effects (not counted)
Total ~ 1400 extra trips per week (including 500 from basic option above)
The 1400 extra trips plus the 250 on other lines is a total of 1750 extra trips.
If implemented this would mark a significant acceleration of Metro service uplift given that the government only added 1250 trips in its first decade.
On a 2015 base of 14000 trips, this uplift of 3000 to 17000 trips would be a rise of 21%. That would slightly exceed the 18% population growth since then. Then the government can claim to have increased per capita Metro services, which it cannot at the moment.
Regardless of the service we get from the Metro Tunnel, there will still be big service inequalities between lines. That includes lines that are (a) busy, (b) serve growing or densifying areas, (c) serve populations with high social needs and (d) all three. That makes further frequency uplifts desirable so that you can rock up at any station (within the urban growth area) and not have up to 40 minutes between trains. That way a Metro train would signify a frequent all week service, similar to how trams do now. Prospects and priorities post-Metro Tunnel (and the next state election) are discussed next.
2026 and beyond
The minister at Estimates encouragingly last week said that the 2025 budget service improvements was just the 'first stage' of Metro service uplifts. This may indicate that there's more to come in the (pre-election) 2026 state budget. This could mark a welcome revival of political interest in public transport service, noting that neither the 2018 nor 2022 election campaigns had significant metropolitan rail frequency promises from either major party.
Ms Williams also said that infrastructure was not something built for its own sake but as a means to ends like service uplifts. This is sensible; having infrastructure construction subservient to other goals is essential to ensure the right things get built and maximum value is extracted from what we do build. As opposed to setting your mind on a particular project before clarifying the problem it is meant to solve.
Before we think about next year, let's go back a decade or so.
If not quite 'projects first', Labor's 2014 policy was certainly 'project jobs first'. This had its genesis in Project 10000, a 2013 plan to create 10000 construction jobs hatched when in opposition. As well as pleasing key unions this reassured the construction industry that there would be continued work, especially desired as Labor needed an alternative to the Liberals' East-West Link.
The emphasis was always on the jobs and building; the benefits were a welcome politically saleable by-product. Project 10000 was realised as level crossing removals, the Metro Tunnel, West Gate Distributor and other road upgrades. More of the latter were added, including the West Gate Tunnel, North East Link and further level crossing removals when in office. The enthusiasm for major projects peaked in 2018 when the program was packaged as the Big Build, culminating in the announcement of the Suburban Rail Loop a few months before that year's state election.
While projects were popular there were not always evaluations of whether similar benefits were possible for less money with a different suite of projects. Also many opportunities to improve service or increase active transport connectivity that were not dependent on big infrastructure builds were either not taken or got deferred, possibly to magnify projects' BCRs through artful bundling.
Furthermore, low interest rates made major capital projects both financially and politically attractive, especially relative to ongoing budget spending on services. Hence major works was not just a Victorian Labor thing; the same conditions encouraged similar mega-projects in other states too. Although Sydney and Perth were better at doing both service and infrastructure than Brisbane and Melbourne have been, thus maximising benefits.
Today's situation is different. Higher interest rates, tighter government finances, soaring construction costs and increased interest in non-transport construction, notably housing, has made transport megaprojects harder to justify. The transport construction frenzy has given us a huge amount of relatively new but still underutilised assets, notably on the rail network. So now is a good time to work them hard to realise their benefits.
With a start made on 'more trains more often' in the 2025 state budget and the Metro Tunnel operating, what should 2026's budget feature to spread service uplifts to more lines?
Here's some tips, starting with the cheaper and easier uplifts that cut the longest waits first.
Smaller
* 20 min maximum waits on the Sandringham line: Boost Sunday mornings from 40 to 20 min and an early Saturday morning boost (if not already done with the Metro Tunnel timetable). Approx 10 more services per week required.
* 20 min maximum waits to Mernda and Eltham: Boosts Sunday morning service on each line from every 40 to every 20 min, evenings from 30 to 20 min. Similar package as 2025 funded for Craigieburn and Upfield involving 60-70 extra weekly services per line. This uplift would give all stations to Clifton Hill a 10 minute or better service from 7am to midnight 7 days.
* Shoulder peak weekday upgrades on the Craigieburn, Werribee and Mernda lines: Increase the hours per day a frequent service applies, starting with busiest lines.
Larger
* Greenfields timetable for Burnley group: A major revamp including (a) fewer peak stopping patterns (b) 20 min maximum interpeak weekday waits for Belgrave and Lilydale, (c) Sunday morning boosts from 30 to 20 min, (d) Reduced evening maximum waits from 30 to 20 min on all lines, (e) 10 min service to Glen Waverley (daytime) and Ringwood (day and night).
* Weekday interpeak and weekend frequency upgrades from 20 to 10 min on Craigieburn, Werribee, Mernda, inner Hurstbridge and Upfield lines, roughly in that order, building on previous shoulder peak upgrades.
With a start made on 'more trains more often' in the 2025 state budget and the Metro Tunnel operating, what should 2026's budget feature to spread service uplifts to more lines?
Here's some tips, starting with the cheaper and easier uplifts that cut the longest waits first.
Smaller
* 20 min maximum waits on the Sandringham line: Boost Sunday mornings from 40 to 20 min and an early Saturday morning boost (if not already done with the Metro Tunnel timetable). Approx 10 more services per week required.
* 20 min maximum waits to Mernda and Eltham: Boosts Sunday morning service on each line from every 40 to every 20 min, evenings from 30 to 20 min. Similar package as 2025 funded for Craigieburn and Upfield involving 60-70 extra weekly services per line. This uplift would give all stations to Clifton Hill a 10 minute or better service from 7am to midnight 7 days.
* Shoulder peak weekday upgrades on the Craigieburn, Werribee and Mernda lines: Increase the hours per day a frequent service applies, starting with busiest lines.
Larger
* Greenfields timetable for Burnley group: A major revamp including (a) fewer peak stopping patterns (b) 20 min maximum interpeak weekday waits for Belgrave and Lilydale, (c) Sunday morning boosts from 30 to 20 min, (d) Reduced evening maximum waits from 30 to 20 min on all lines, (e) 10 min service to Glen Waverley (daytime) and Ringwood (day and night).
* Weekday interpeak and weekend frequency upgrades from 20 to 10 min on Craigieburn, Werribee, Mernda, inner Hurstbridge and Upfield lines, roughly in that order, building on previous shoulder peak upgrades.
* Finishing the job on Metro Tunnel upgrades if the Enhanced service option is not already running.
* V/Line service uplifts including upgrading Melton to every 20 min weekends, higher Wyndham Vale frequencies and improved Seymour line service.
* A complementary rail infrastructure program driven by service and capacity needs for the west, north and outer south-east. (the need to boost service, then enabling infrastructure, then service again was cited by the minister in Estimates)
Conclusion
To summarise, Metro (as opposed to V/Line) train service has lagged population growth in the current government's first decade. This has led to Melbourne having rail service levels inferior to that of other cities, with frequent service largely confined to peaks on most lines.
Long waits at night and weekend mornings also reduce the ability of trains to support major events and commutes for retail, food, hospitality, health and event workers.
There is also a large geographic inequality, unrelated to patronage, between busy poorly serviced lines like Craigieburn and highly serviced lines like Frankston.
The 2025 state budget has funded welcome service upgrades we know about on some lines with others (we don't yet know) coming on the Metro Tunnel lines.
Also welcome is the minister flagging the possibility of further Metro service upgrades in 2026. It is hoped that these will be spread widely across more of Melbourne, including the Clifton Hill and Burnley groups which were out of scope of the Metro Tunnel related service upgrades.
A robust program of rail service uplifts will enable the government to tell a good story on both rail infrastructure and service, especially if investment in the latter enables a substantial per capita rebound.
Index to other Timetable Tuesday items here
Long waits at night and weekend mornings also reduce the ability of trains to support major events and commutes for retail, food, hospitality, health and event workers.
There is also a large geographic inequality, unrelated to patronage, between busy poorly serviced lines like Craigieburn and highly serviced lines like Frankston.
The 2025 state budget has funded welcome service upgrades we know about on some lines with others (we don't yet know) coming on the Metro Tunnel lines.
Also welcome is the minister flagging the possibility of further Metro service upgrades in 2026. It is hoped that these will be spread widely across more of Melbourne, including the Clifton Hill and Burnley groups which were out of scope of the Metro Tunnel related service upgrades.
A robust program of rail service uplifts will enable the government to tell a good story on both rail infrastructure and service, especially if investment in the latter enables a substantial per capita rebound.
Index to other Timetable Tuesday items here
3 comments:
Yeah, not happening Box Hill, this decade is dedicated to the western suburbs (which Upfield and Craigieburn are somehow part of despite being due north like Mernda); next decade will be spent gently coaxing butterflies away from the rail reserve so that Wattle Glen can have two tracks and 10-minute trains until midnight, followed by retiring the high floor trams, buying 300 low-floor trams, building a few depots so they can actually fit since they're way longer than a Z class, plonking a thousand platform stops in the middle of the road, and completing the SRL and airport line.
Not sure if I'm being too pollyannaish, but my gut tells me you're right on the likelihood of turbo-charging frequency on Metro Tunnel lines ahead of the 2026 state election. It would be fodder for the anti-SRL brigade if the governments flagship network addition delivered offers just more of the same as existing services (and the whole "taking my single seat journey out of the loop" criticism has some justification if the transfer penalty is too great. Notwithstanding the SRL is a different proposition from a service/rolling stock perspective, no one will think its worth the effort if Melb Metro doesn't come up with the goods
After 10 years of building I expected the metro tunnel to open with 10 min inter peak on all lines consistently. With that not announced in the state budget it's a disappointment and it better be in the new year as the excuses of why it can't be are wearing thin. Th LX removal will be close to 100 by next budget, so it's time to get on with it and not use that as an excuse. Upfield and Frankston LX will be delayed if built at all in the next government. Bus reform to go along with any metro line changes go hand in hand. Let's hope Jeroem can do it.
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