A theme raised in the now 1521-day old Victoria's Bus Plan is the mismatch between service levels and a bus route's network role or patronage productivity (either existing or potential).
While the state government (to its credit) has been funding growth area bus network additions (either through the budget or GAIC mechanisms) the more something looks likes reform the faster it will run away from it. Even if previously promised. Hence the apparent collapse of the northern and north-east area bus network review promised before the 2022 state election. And when asked about bus reform at PAEC the DTP secretary may present information that conveys an impression of greater activity than has actually occurred.
On the positive side some needed upgrades to existing high patronage routes have occurred. Examples include the 905 and 907 in Doncaster (funded from cuts to some very quiet routes), 733 from Box Hill, 800 on Princes Hwy and the recent Werribee boosts involving 170, 180, 190 and especially 192. These typically work the existing fleet harder on the existing network with an emphasis on improved weekend service and longer hours.
Some more local routes have also gained Sunday service including 284, 285, 293, 612 and the to be implemented 536 in Glenroy.
Melbourne's high patronage / low service areas
If a bus route is busy on Saturday it almost certainly means it will be popular on Sunday. Therefore, as a minimum, all routes that are well used on Saturday should operate on Sunday. Below are the most productive 20 bus routes that lacked Sunday service in 2022. Four of these have since had Sunday service implemented or funded.
The high productivity/low service combination is not evenly distributed. Certain areas were more overlooked by past 7 day bus upgrade programs than others.
If we're talking about just one suburb, Brunswick in Merri-bek is the next most prominent. The demographics are different to Dandenong but are still mixed. There are many renters, people without cars and others who would use public transport if it was better. The area is generously served with north-south train and tram lines but east-west transport is all bus.
The map below shows Brunswick's bus 'black hole' on a Sunday. More than half the routes do not operate on a Sunday. It's not even a case of 'walking slightly further to a frequent route' as proponents of bus reform often like us to do. That's because there is no frequent Sunday bus route in Brunswick with even major routes like the 508 only every 40 minutes to timetables substantially unchanged in years.
To get anything better you need to walk north to Bell Street Coburg. There you will find a cacophony of overlapping routes, with 903, the most frequent, being every 30 minutes on weekends. With a mix of 30, 40 and 80 minute frequencies on a corridor whose buses have only got more complex over time, you are likely to see two buses and then a long gap. This is because when Bell Street gets a new route (like the 903 orbital, 561 extension or 514 creation) the wider network is never reappraised to permit simpler and more frequent service for a given budget.
The case for a Route 506 7 day upgrade
Moving back further south, the busiest Monday to Saturday only route is the 506. Not only in Brunswick but also all of Melbourne since the 800 got upgraded.
This makes its case for a 7 day Route 506 upgrade very strong. Especially as other worthy but quieter routes have got seven day upgrades. As well as new Sunday service Route 506 also needs operating hours extended to at least the 'minimum standard' of 9pm since the last Saturday bus departs Moonee Ponds at 6pm - still broad daylight in summer.
Not only that but what is now the 506 used to run Sunday with a 15 minute frequency operating until midnight in 1955 according to gazetted timetables. This started at Balfe Cr Brunswick West as there was not then a direct road connection to Moonee Ponds.
The arrival of Saturday afternoon shopping in the late 1980s led to some bus routes gaining Saturday afternoon service. However this was typically less frequent than Saturday morning service. A couple of years later the savage private operator bus cuts of 1990-91 led to many routes losing much of their already sparse weekend service.
The 1990s parsimony continued after the change of government with the legalisation of Sunday shopping not coinciding with many additions of Sunday bus services. However some routes gained limited Sunday service in 2002.
The much larger Meeting Our Transport Challenges minimum standards program that delivered at least hourly seven day service until 9pm commenced in 2006, benefiting over 100 bus routes. An average of three routes were gaining Sunday service every month between March 2006 and November 2008 - a sustained rate subsequent governments have never approached. By 2010's end most suburbs had Sunday service on at least some routes with some also having orbital SmartBuses. Metropolitan bus patronage rose strongly during this period. However some strongly performing routes that should have been early inclusions, like the 506, 536, 800 and others around Dandenong never got upgrades during this busy period.
The current Andrews/Allan government has been weaker on bus services than its Bracks/Brumby predecessor. Even though its plans for affordable well-located homes cannot work without good 7 day transport choices including upgraded buses in inner and middle ring suburbs like Brunswick.
The largely unfunded Bus Plan of 2021 has so far been no match for 2006's Meeting our Transport Challenges in its sheer rate of bus network upgrades.
However there are signs of renewed state interest in better 7 day buses with examples listed before. Such a credible program would need to include (a) large weekend and operating hours upgrades for key routes like the 508, (b) completed roll-out of 7 day service on buses without them, starting with those with high patronage or high needs catchments like the 506 and (c) other network reform as required.
How could 506 bus be upgraded to 7 days?
Its high patronage productivity makes the 506 bus, along with several routes in Greater Dandenong, top priorities for the next round of 7 day upgrades. Opportunities for funding them can come from:
(i) From internal economies, for instance by cutting service on poorly used or duplicative routes
(ii) Externally, for instance from budget funding
Our DTP is slower than Perth's PTA at implementing cost-effective bus service network reform as established here. While changing, with new contract arrangements driving most small bus operators out, Melbourne still has a larger number of operators. This is an issue because bus operators vary greatly in their potential to find internal economies from timetable and network reform. And DTP finds it easier to do reforms within one operator's routes than changes that involve several.
The 506 used to be operated by a small company that had just one other route (the 503 that also doesn't run Sunday). That has only a small opportunity for network reform. The 506 transferred to the much larger Dysons and, just recently, the even larger Kinetic.
Dyson's bus network has been pretty much preserved in aspic despite many of its routes being indirect, overlapping others or poorly used. The reform story here is weak, even though the north and north-east (which includes many Dysons routes) was identified as a bus review priority area in 2022. The government was returned at that year's election and apparently forgot about its bus review promise.
In contrast DTP has a pretty strong record of working with Kinetic (and before them Transdev) in implementing bus network reform going back to at least 2014. So maybe, just maybe, 506 has a stronger record of getting 7 day service under Kinetic if economies can be found.
Failing that there is the potential for state budget funding, such as was provided to upgrade the 800. The 506 stacks up strongly given its extremely strong Saturday usage. As for that matter 508 boosts and a 503 upgrade as a package, though we're concentrating on the 506 here.
Preparatory work is currently being done on the 2026 state budget. This makes now a good time to be advocating for a Route 506 7 day service upgrade to provide the better east-west transport that Brunswick, Moonee Ponds and Westgarth need.
The aim here is for this to be supported by DTP in their business case (which should be justifiable due to the strong patronage evidence) and then backed by government for funding.
Sign the petition
A Legislative Council parliamentary petition has been established to get support for a 506 seven day upgrade with longer operating hours. The benefit of this petition is that it is tabled in parliament and the minister must respond. The more signatures from Victorian residents it has the more weight it will carry.
View and sign the 506 bus epetition here: https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/get-involved/petitions/more-services-for-bus-route-506/
5 comments:
Oh no! How will the inner north ever cope with a bus only every 40 minutes on Sundays?
"Some more local routes have also gained Sunday service including 284, 285, 293, 612 and the to be implemented 536 in Glenroy."
The irony of Brunswick's 40-minute Sunday buses being considered woeful compared to these five routes!
Even for the rest of Melbourne where buses run to the minimum standard, 40-minute buses on a Sunday would be a 50% service increase over their typical hourly service. Half the buses east of Punt Rd/Hoddle St are hourly on weekday evenings and Saturdays, which of course also means public holidays.
"Oh no! How will the inner north ever cope with a bus only every 40 minutes on Sundays?"
Heihachi. When was the last time you travelled to the inner north and saw the density and patronage? If you'd seen it, you'd understand why these routes need consideration.
Yes, they're not full and standing loads, but they're definitely full seated on most trips.
More than can be said for most routes, and areas with high population density definitely need to be considered sensibly.
But as you yourself said elsewhere talking about the 901;
"* Not frequent enough to be considered BRT or even a premium service, especially on evenings and weekends where it's every 30 minutes
* It has a Sunday timetable this side of 1996."
Oh no! How will Knox and Rowville cope with a bus every half hour that ends at 9pm on a Sunday, runs until midnight every other day, and is of higher quality than most of the routes that are listed in this post!?
Give it a rest, leave the outer east, and understand that not everywhere is east of the 903.
Peter, I'm glad to see you're actually thinking outside of Dandenong. I do feel there's more upgrades than can be done around the inner 'burbs, but a 7 day 506 I guess is a good start.
I do feel that pushing for (at least) a 30 minute service on the existing 3 routes (504, 508 & 510) would be a much more worthwhile cause, especially given patronage is only going to climb in that area as densification of the inner north continues, but I'm not too sure where funding would come from for an upgrade.
In addition, personally I feel 468, 549 and 404 are probably the next 3 to campaign for in the inner burbs. 468 by cutting back weekday 465 a little, 404 by cutting back weekday 472 (or even 404) a little, and 549 could probably be a one bus service.
But all in all, happy to see you're doing it.
Ricky - the decision on what to support campaigns on rests on several factors including existing and potential patronage, social need, affordability the difference it would make and chance of getting implemented.
510 and 504 are less well used than the 508 so although they deserve better service the case for them is nowhere near as strong as the 508. If you're going to campaign on 508 you would never ask for just a 30 min service (which would just boost Sundays). You would actually ask for a 15 min service 7 days (which if fully justified btw). If the government came back with a 20 min service that would still be a major win. That is in a similar way in how the 800 campaign asked for a 20 min service and got a 30 min service (admittedly off a lower base which included no or 120 min gaps).
Part of a successful campaign is mustering indignation. If something has nothing on Sundays then campaigning for something is easier if you're going from nothing to something than starting at something and asking for a bit more. The 800 and 536 are both successful examples where campaigning worked. 506 hopefully next.
Then there is the government's own modus operandi. They clearly do look at productivity potential when deciding upgrades. Them upgrading 4 in the top 20 routes without Sunday service is not as high as it should be but represents a better chance of success than if they randomly did it. Asking them to draw on their own success by doing more of the same (with the 800 boost demonstrating success) might be attractive to them.
While this blog endlessly ruminates on changing quiet route A so that better services can be put to busier route B, a community campaign should not do this. Its preferred approach should be to get NEW MONEY for bus services (just like the 800 campaign did). If the campaign generates enough noise that the government is compelled to act but rationalises a timetable on a quieter route to help fund then that can still be considered as a win. Although that is what DTP should be doing as daily business, like the process that Perth does much better than us in its ongoing review of patronage and service level adjustments.
The 506 itself has a little kink that if removed frees up service km that could contribute to more trips (just like the 800 did to a lesser extent with its cemetery deviation). However community campaigns I think work best if they stay simple, stick to the message, are not too prescriptive and give discretion to the department to work out final details (which they will be asked to do so once the political momentum becomes unstoppable).
The other inner routes for upgrade have strong merit (though so does the pathetic 609 which needs a rethink along with the 350, 508, 567 in the area). Getting 408 to better than hourly on Sunday is also urgent, stacking up strongly on social needs and patronage grounds. That and the 468 problem can be neatly solved by replacing the Sunshine - Essendon portion of 408/468 with a rerouted 903 with compensatory 465 boosts and a 406 extension to Sunshine.
On a smaller scale, running 472 from Footscray to Moonee Ponds via the 404 alignment could improve directness on a major route with the existing 472 alignment being served by a Footscray - Moonee Ponds local route. Alternatively (though there might be issue with congestion) an amalgamation of 508 and 404 to provide the 508 with a Craigieburn line train connection at Ascot Vale.
That becomes genuine network reform. Very cost-effective but complex for a community to campaign on. But if there's enough political pressure (helped by a looming election) govt can be forced to act, especially if they run out of money for big projects with better buses about the only remaining thing they can afford. Though one should be wary of cases like the north and north east bus review that was announced before the 2022 election but the govt seemed to ditch.
*Not everywhere is east of the 246. Had to think for a while, the 62x CDC routes are probably a good eastern suburbs comparison to the 50x routes in the picture. 623 and 624 definitely fit the mold.
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