Big universities are major weekday patronage generators for many of our most productive bus weekday routes. Usage is so high that short university shuttles have been added to relieve regular routes. These have been very successful where service is every 10 minutes or better.
Weekends are different. Big shopping centres are where the people are but the buses aren't. They're more likely to be stashed in depots, out of revenue service. This is because frequencies on many routes (including SmartBuses) drop by 50% on weekends despite continued (and sometimes heightened) demand for travel. Unlike with the university shuttles there hasn't been much of a service response to this except for the recent and temporary Route 700 Chadstone Shuttle.
Another, largely historical, pattern are routes with a moderately frequent Monday to Saturday service but a sparse Sunday timetable. These are prevalent along main roads in Melbourne's inner-west and north. Typical examples run every 15 to 20 minutes Monday to Saturday with a drop to every 40 to 60 minutes on Sundays. .
Examples include 406, 408, 410, 465, 472 and 527. Saturday service may be three times Sunday's. This is because these routes typically had no Sunday service until the 2006-2010 minimum standards upgrade program. When it was added it was typically to the minimum standard of a neighbourhood bus rather than what you'd expect on a popular major route.
This variation in service levels (far bigger than variation in demand whose true value is only known if Saturday and Sunday service levels were equal) is why some routes have higher boardings per bus hour on Sundays than Saturdays, despite lower overall trip volumes on Sunday. Another factor that causes differences in rankings between the days is that not all productive Saturday routes run on Sundays. For these reasons it is better, notwithstanding the title, to look at Saturday and Sunday numbers individually.
The most productive Saturday routes
What are the ten most productive Saturday bus routes in Melbourne? Regular readers will not be surprised that 900 from Caulfield to Rowville via Chadstone tops the list with over 80 boardings per Saturday bus service hour. 733 (Box Hill - Oakleigh), 279 (Box Hill - Doncaster) and 907 (City - Mitcham) take the next three places with at least 50 boardings per hour. Rounding out the top 10 are 630 (Elwood - Monash University), 508 (Moonee Ponds - Alphington), 767 (Southland - Box Hill), 800 (Dandenong - Chadstone), 903 (Altona - Mordialloc) and 150 (Tarneit - Williams Landing) with at least 40 boardings per hour.
These routes typically run every 30 to 40 minutes during the day on Saturday. 907 is better at every 20 minute frequency while 800 is substantially inferior with buses only every 60 minutes (morning) and 120 minutes (afternoon).
Seven of the ten (shown in red) service major shopping centres. Most commonly Chadstone, Box Hill and Doncaster. The three that don't (150, 508 and 630) serve densely populated areas with favourable catchments (eg many students or people without cars).
Weekends are different. Big shopping centres are where the people are but the buses aren't. They're more likely to be stashed in depots, out of revenue service. This is because frequencies on many routes (including SmartBuses) drop by 50% on weekends despite continued (and sometimes heightened) demand for travel. Unlike with the university shuttles there hasn't been much of a service response to this except for the recent and temporary Route 700 Chadstone Shuttle.
Another, largely historical, pattern are routes with a moderately frequent Monday to Saturday service but a sparse Sunday timetable. These are prevalent along main roads in Melbourne's inner-west and north. Typical examples run every 15 to 20 minutes Monday to Saturday with a drop to every 40 to 60 minutes on Sundays. .
Examples include 406, 408, 410, 465, 472 and 527. Saturday service may be three times Sunday's. This is because these routes typically had no Sunday service until the 2006-2010 minimum standards upgrade program. When it was added it was typically to the minimum standard of a neighbourhood bus rather than what you'd expect on a popular major route.
This variation in service levels (far bigger than variation in demand whose true value is only known if Saturday and Sunday service levels were equal) is why some routes have higher boardings per bus hour on Sundays than Saturdays, despite lower overall trip volumes on Sunday. Another factor that causes differences in rankings between the days is that not all productive Saturday routes run on Sundays. For these reasons it is better, notwithstanding the title, to look at Saturday and Sunday numbers individually.
The most productive Saturday routes
What are the ten most productive Saturday bus routes in Melbourne? Regular readers will not be surprised that 900 from Caulfield to Rowville via Chadstone tops the list with over 80 boardings per Saturday bus service hour. 733 (Box Hill - Oakleigh), 279 (Box Hill - Doncaster) and 907 (City - Mitcham) take the next three places with at least 50 boardings per hour. Rounding out the top 10 are 630 (Elwood - Monash University), 508 (Moonee Ponds - Alphington), 767 (Southland - Box Hill), 800 (Dandenong - Chadstone), 903 (Altona - Mordialloc) and 150 (Tarneit - Williams Landing) with at least 40 boardings per hour.
These routes typically run every 30 to 40 minutes during the day on Saturday. 907 is better at every 20 minute frequency while 800 is substantially inferior with buses only every 60 minutes (morning) and 120 minutes (afternoon).
Seven of the ten (shown in red) service major shopping centres. Most commonly Chadstone, Box Hill and Doncaster. The three that don't (150, 508 and 630) serve densely populated areas with favourable catchments (eg many students or people without cars).
The most productive Sunday routes
Sunday's list is different. Seven of the top ten Saturday routes feature in it. 900, 733 and 279 again occupy the top three positions. 900 (88 boardings per hour) and 733 (62 boardings per hour) are again a little ahead of the pack. The rest (279, 630, 767, 907, 631, 623, 903 and 302) all attract between 40 and 51 boardings per bus hour.
Some top scorers only got their ranking because they serve a favourable catchment with infrequent buses. Examples are 733, 279, 631, 623 and 302 which run hourly only. Route 900 is better, operating every half hour. However its very high boardings per hour figure indicates that it too is grossly underserviced.
Similar to Saturday eight of the ten top performers serve major shopping centres. The remaining two (630 and 631) serve catchments with high bus using populations (eg Monash University students).
Sunday's list is different. Seven of the top ten Saturday routes feature in it. 900, 733 and 279 again occupy the top three positions. 900 (88 boardings per hour) and 733 (62 boardings per hour) are again a little ahead of the pack. The rest (279, 630, 767, 907, 631, 623, 903 and 302) all attract between 40 and 51 boardings per bus hour.
Some top scorers only got their ranking because they serve a favourable catchment with infrequent buses. Examples are 733, 279, 631, 623 and 302 which run hourly only. Route 900 is better, operating every half hour. However its very high boardings per hour figure indicates that it too is grossly underserviced.
Similar to Saturday eight of the ten top performers serve major shopping centres. The remaining two (630 and 631) serve catchments with high bus using populations (eg Monash University students).
Routes more productive on weekends than weekdays
It's quite rare for bus routes to carry more passengers on weekends than weekdays. More common are routes that attract more boardings per hour on weekends than weekdays. This is due to historical tendencies to run buses more frequently on weekdays than weekends (especially Sunday).
Trams and (to a lesser extent) metropolitan trains have more of a tradition of all-week frequent service. Unfortunately the big regional shopping centres, which are most active on weekends, usually only have infrequent buses from most directions. This mismatch between service and demand explains why weekend buses to such centres can attract higher boardings per hour than weekday services.
Saturday vs weekday productivity
The most extreme example is Route 900 from Caulfield to Rowville via Chadstone, with 84 boardings per hour on Saturday versus 51 on weekdays. That is a Saturday:weekday ratio of more than 1.6:1.
Other examples where Saturday productivity exceeds weekday productivity AND Saturday productivity is at least 20 boardings per bus hour are (in descending order): 279, 284, 555, 790, 903, 789, 843, 215, 556, 862, 293, 885, 626, 800, 402, 625, 527, 767, 504, 559, 513, 251, 685, 566, 506, 907, 439, 683, 411, 552, 623 and 804.
You can again see the shopping centre influence with routes shown in red. Routes shown in blue go to major weekend attractions (eg zoos) or serve a main peri-urban corridor. A surprising proportion of these good performing Saturday routes lack Sunday service. These include routes 284, 885, 800, 559, 506 and 804. It is not surprising that these feature highly in this list of six day bus routes that most justify having Sunday service added. In addition some others, while they have 7 day service, have limited Saturday operating hours, eg 279, 843, 215, 293 and 251.
Sunday vs weekday productivity
What about Sunday versus weekday productivity? The leading example is Route 843 in Endeavour Hills (whose network we discussed here). This has an extraordinary 34 boardings per hour on Sunday versus 19 on weekdays or a 1.8:1 ratio. Saturday is in between at 24 boardings per bus hour. The reason for 843's number is its Sunday underservicing with buses every two hours. Yes, high productivity can wreck a bus route (or at least make it underperform in the patronage stakes).
Other routes where Sunday productivity exceeds weekday productivity AND Sunday productivity exceeds 20 boarding per bus hour are (in descending order): 900, 849, 862, 220, 279, 903, 767, 845, 631, 251, 626, 216, 623, 223, 670, 219, 293, 624, 555 and 732.
What places do these high-productivity weekend routes serve? Routes to regional shopping centres, such as Chadstone, Doncaster Shoppingtown, Northland, Box Hill stand out. As do some to other major destinations such as Melbourne CBD, Footscray and Dandenong. Popular weekend attractions or day trip routes also feature (eg 683, 685 and 439) especially on the Saturday list.
Routes like those discussed are where you'd concentrate resources on if you wanted to improve weekend bus services. Even if you had to reduce weekday frequencies of poorly performing routes or, better still, revamp networks to reduce service overlap and duplication.
It's quite rare for bus routes to carry more passengers on weekends than weekdays. More common are routes that attract more boardings per hour on weekends than weekdays. This is due to historical tendencies to run buses more frequently on weekdays than weekends (especially Sunday).
Trams and (to a lesser extent) metropolitan trains have more of a tradition of all-week frequent service. Unfortunately the big regional shopping centres, which are most active on weekends, usually only have infrequent buses from most directions. This mismatch between service and demand explains why weekend buses to such centres can attract higher boardings per hour than weekday services.
Saturday vs weekday productivity
The most extreme example is Route 900 from Caulfield to Rowville via Chadstone, with 84 boardings per hour on Saturday versus 51 on weekdays. That is a Saturday:weekday ratio of more than 1.6:1.
Other examples where Saturday productivity exceeds weekday productivity AND Saturday productivity is at least 20 boardings per bus hour are (in descending order): 279, 284, 555, 790, 903, 789, 843, 215, 556, 862, 293, 885, 626, 800, 402, 625, 527, 767, 504, 559, 513, 251, 685, 566, 506, 907, 439, 683, 411, 552, 623 and 804.
You can again see the shopping centre influence with routes shown in red. Routes shown in blue go to major weekend attractions (eg zoos) or serve a main peri-urban corridor. A surprising proportion of these good performing Saturday routes lack Sunday service. These include routes 284, 885, 800, 559, 506 and 804. It is not surprising that these feature highly in this list of six day bus routes that most justify having Sunday service added. In addition some others, while they have 7 day service, have limited Saturday operating hours, eg 279, 843, 215, 293 and 251.
Sunday vs weekday productivity
What about Sunday versus weekday productivity? The leading example is Route 843 in Endeavour Hills (whose network we discussed here). This has an extraordinary 34 boardings per hour on Sunday versus 19 on weekdays or a 1.8:1 ratio. Saturday is in between at 24 boardings per bus hour. The reason for 843's number is its Sunday underservicing with buses every two hours. Yes, high productivity can wreck a bus route (or at least make it underperform in the patronage stakes).
Other routes where Sunday productivity exceeds weekday productivity AND Sunday productivity exceeds 20 boarding per bus hour are (in descending order): 900, 849, 862, 220, 279, 903, 767, 845, 631, 251, 626, 216, 623, 223, 670, 219, 293, 624, 555 and 732.
What places do these high-productivity weekend routes serve? Routes to regional shopping centres, such as Chadstone, Doncaster Shoppingtown, Northland, Box Hill stand out. As do some to other major destinations such as Melbourne CBD, Footscray and Dandenong. Popular weekend attractions or day trip routes also feature (eg 683, 685 and 439) especially on the Saturday list.
Routes like those discussed are where you'd concentrate resources on if you wanted to improve weekend bus services. Even if you had to reduce weekday frequencies of poorly performing routes or, better still, revamp networks to reduce service overlap and duplication.
Does high Sunday productivity correlate with high Saturday productivity?
The short answer is yes. Routes with 7 day service were graphed by productivity (below). A route with a high boardings per hour ratio on Saturday is also likely to be popular on Sunday.
The short answer is yes. Routes with 7 day service were graphed by productivity (below). A route with a high boardings per hour ratio on Saturday is also likely to be popular on Sunday.
The main places where Sunday usage is lower are traditional working to lower middle class suburbs in many areas across the north and outer south-east (eg around Hallam with routes like 892 and 893). Sunday trading appears less prevalent there than affluent inner and bayside suburbs. However in lower income outer suburbs (eg Deer Park and Craigieburn) Sunday productivity remains above average (eg Routes 424 and 529). They're only below the 1:1 line because Saturday usage is so good.
The very underserviced (733 and 900) have high numbers on both days. Those only grossly underserviced on a Sunday (eg the 843, 845 and 849 cluster around Endeavour Hills) are well above the line. I discussed the Endeavour Hills network in Useful Network Part 27. Other examples of Sunday underservicing include the 302/304 pair (covered here) and routes around Highpoint (discussed here and here).
The very underserviced (733 and 900) have high numbers on both days. Those only grossly underserviced on a Sunday (eg the 843, 845 and 849 cluster around Endeavour Hills) are well above the line. I discussed the Endeavour Hills network in Useful Network Part 27. Other examples of Sunday underservicing include the 302/304 pair (covered here) and routes around Highpoint (discussed here and here).
What about routes with no Sunday service? (a hypothetical)
The Sunday vs Saturday graph above can only have routes with Sunday service. We saw the strong link between Saturday and Sunday productivity. The graph below includes the ten most productive Saturday routes without Sunday service (800, 506, 536, 885, 281, 804, 814, 284, 559, 612). Not surprisingly most feature in Thirteen Melbourne bus routes that most deserve Sunday service. I took the Saturday boardings per hour and subtracted 20% to reach a conservative Sunday estimate.
All these routes, if they got Sunday service, would be more productive than most other routes and boost the overall network average. And they would connect people to jobs and services they need seven days a week. So if you wanted to bring Sunday bus service to areas where you're sure people would appreciate it and heavily use it then you'd start with these routes.
All these routes, if they got Sunday service, would be more productive than most other routes and boost the overall network average. And they would connect people to jobs and services they need seven days a week. So if you wanted to bring Sunday bus service to areas where you're sure people would appreciate it and heavily use it then you'd start with these routes.
Summary and implementation
This has been our look at our most productive weekend bus routes. A simple doubling of frequencies on our busiest weekend routes using the existing bus fleet would make a huge difference to the network's usefulness.
This has been our look at our most productive weekend bus routes. A simple doubling of frequencies on our busiest weekend routes using the existing bus fleet would make a huge difference to the network's usefulness.
And given the close link between Saturday and Sunday bus route productivity, adding Sunday service to our most productive Saturday routes currently without it would also have a large effect.
Where routes have sections that are poor performers and others that are popular you might add extra short trips to provide doubled frequency only on the section that needs it. Examples include sections of orbital SmartBuses like the 903 and the Box Hill - Clayton section of Route 733.
Network reform can be even more economical, especially where routes have overlapping catchments. For example simplifying 802/802/862 into two routes might save resources compared to retaining the existing three routes. Weekend service might involve boosting one extra route (instead of two) so that two out of two routes have the upgrade service (instead of three out of three, possibly at a lower frequency).
The same could apply where there is significant overlap (often involving SmartBus orbitals) and there are alternative alignments that could serve popular destinations better (eg routing 903 via Highpoint). See the Friday Useful Network posts for more discussion on streamlining local networks.
Over to you. What do you think about weekend bus services and where can they be improved? If you have thoughts please leave them in the comments below.
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4 comments:
Where would the 742 be on the list? It runs roughly hourly during both AM and PM peak*, 40 minutes between peaks, 40 minutes again on Saturdays and hourly on Sundays. Another issue with the 742 is that not all buses cover the entire distance, some terminate at Heatherdale, Oakleigh or Glen Waverley stations, even during peak, leaving the aforementioned gaps of 40+ minutes.
*From Eastland: 40 minutes in the AM peak; with PM peak services being 5:42, 6:14 and 7:14. Two additional buses between 6-7PM terminate short at lonely old Heatherdale and turn back for no apparent reason, even though it means that the empty out-of-service bus has to travel half way to Ringwood anyway (via New St/Molan St) to turn around since the level crossing was removed (Heatherdale-only buses used to deviate via the side streets, but the bus stops disappeared along with the ground-level station so all 742s now run straight along the main road, of course with no change to the timetable at all, some buses are still timed to wait a minute or two for the nonexistent boom gates). The gap between the second last and the last bus on weekdays is a staggering 71 minutes, which is even worse than the Sunday timetable.
742 is above average on weekdays, Saturdays and Sundays. Probably because it serves the Monash precinct which is a goldmine for bus patronage.
The 742 needs limited stop buses 7 days a week that only stop at Ringwood, Vermont South, Glen Waverley, Monash university, Oakleigh and Chadstone. This would probably save 30 minutes off the end to end times and reduce the extremely long travel times from bayside suburbs between Brighton and Mordialloc to Ringwood. Currently its Quicker to travel from Hampton to Geelong than it is to Ringwood. Going by rail via Richmond isn't the answer far too many delays and long connections especially on weekends.
Nick - Interesting idea but I'm skeptical it would get used. Express trips add confusion and mean you need lots of resources that could otherwise be spent on running a more frequent all stops service. Personally I'd never run express services until your basic service is so frequent that increasing frequency further doesn't dramatically cut end to end travel times.
I doubt that many go from the Bayside suburbs to say Ringwood. If they do then the trains are every 10 min on weekends to Ringwood. Boosting the Sandringham line to 10 min on weekends would help connections but I'd regard it as far lower priority compared to boosting Ringwood to every 10 min on weekdays off-peak.
As for access from other bayside suburbs to the eastern suburbs, this is best improved by upgrading orbital routes like 902 and 903 from their current 30-ish minutes on weekends.
For a trip like Hampton to Ringwood while there is minor backtracking via Richmond there is something severely wrong with rail if it is not the fastest way to Ringwood. Once we've got 7 day 10 min rail services on most lines I'd next advocate two-tier local/express services on rail (each tier every 10 min) to cut travel times on the longer lines. At the current (almost zero) rate of progress that seems a long way off so I haven't talked about it.
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