TT #166: What's happening to our tram timetables?

Up to now Melbourne has largely avoided COVID-related public transport service cuts (except instances such as at V/Line and Dysons where drivers were available and temporary cancellations applied). 

This is unlike central London for which large bus service reductions are proposed. 

However we're not getting off scot free. Last Tuesday's Age warned of cuts to trams on Elizabeth St and St Kilda Rd routes. These would save $4 million per year by making what is termed 'minor reductions' in frequency during shoulder peak times. That includes just before and just after the evening rush hours, extending into the early evening. Lower than expected passenger numbers (due to the pandemic and people working from home) was given as a justification.  

The information came to light in a response presented by the Department of Transport to PAEC (Public Accounts & Estimates Committee). This refers to funding for a tram service increase in 2018 lapsing in 2021/22. This (pre-pandemic) 2018 boost was to address crowding and impacts of Metro Tunnel construction work. The government did not seek a renewal of funding for this upgrade due to lower patronage and less construction impact. Hence the services added four years ago will be withdrawn. 

Or will they? Response h above refers to minimising negative impacts. 

The response is that DoT is considering scope for network efficiencies and reducing what it terms 'under-utilised' services. 

So there is a chance that not all the services added in May 2018 will be withdrawn if quieter alternatives to prune back are found. Or efficiencies are found. Possibilities are shown below. 

What is chosen depends on your aim when developing or reforming a network. Last week I argued that frequency is everything despite it often being ignored or at best under-appreciated by the Department of Transport / PTV. 

I also suggested that frequency should drive every decision in public transport planning. Including whether to go ahead with these cuts (if it's a straight reversal of the 2018 upgrades) or seeking more tolerable alternatives. The latter could be based on preserving maximum waits for as much of the day as possible on as many routes as possible. Ideally these should be 10 minutes, though St Kilda Rd routes  don't even meet this now. Or, where frequency is currently lower, like in the early evening, at 15 rather than 20 minutes. 

The best option of course would be to cut nothing and instead look at ways to economically increase rather than cut overall network frequencies. On this note the long-term trends. Despite being a key driver of patronage tram frequency has been neglected for decades. Timetables have suffered 'death of a thousand cuts' over decades (most notably the 1950s and 60s with few reversals since) and we now wait up to twice as long for trams as our grandparents did. 

The longer any planned service reductions are deferred the better. It is possibly not a bad thing that we haven't been told about what is happening and when it will be happening. That might be sign that there might be deeper thinking happening than merely removing the service that got added in 2018.  

The 2018 service boosts

So what are the May 2018 service upgrades that may be reversed? You can read about them here or below. 

Note though that the Age article only refers to Elizabeth St and St Kilda Rd services. Thus the cuts may not affect the 58 and 86 mentioned above. Tram route and frequency guides are published on Yarra Trams website here. However there were enough discrepancies between these and actual timetables that I gave up using them. 

The tram 67 example below shows the 2018 upgrade in the early evening outbound direction. In 2017 the service was every 12 - 15 minute until 7:34pm. It dropped to every 17 minutes for a couple of trips before settling down at the 20 minute late evening frequency at 8:26pm. 

In contrast the 2018 boost extended the 15 minute service by about 90 minutes to finish at 9:08pm after which frequency reverted to 20 minutes. This was achieved by adding two tram trips. It meant that people could eat out in the CBD and have a 15 minute maximum wait until after 9pm. 

The 67 was a St Kilda Rd route. Let's look at an Elizabeth St route, like the popular 59 to Airport West via Niddrie (in the minister's electorate). In 2017 the 59 had a good interpeak frequency but fell off in the evening. For example it ran every 10 to 12 minutes until 7:43pm. Than only every 20 minutes from 7:57pm. Trips around then were crowded but little was done to boost timetables for years.  

Relief came in the 2018 upgrades. Added short trips (finishing at Essendon depot) delivered a 5-10 minute frequency until after 7;30pm. Service after then was upgraded with 15 minute maximum waits until 9:58pm, after which the usual 20 minute evening frequency cut in. 

This upgrade was much larger than that which the 67 received, with 7 trips in the outbound direction alone added. Consequently reversing the 2018 upgrades will have a much bigger effect on the 59's usefulness than doing same to the 67. Having said that scope might exist to make peak period adjustments to the 59 where frequencies are very high while retaining 10 minute maximum waits until 7:30pm and 15 minute maximum waits until 10pm. 

The above are just two examples. I haven't looked in detail at the consequences for other tram routes nor at different times in different directions. However it is clear that if the 2018 upgrades are fully reversed their effect will be substantial. Certainly more than 'minor reductions' for routes like the 59. 

Conclusion

Service cuts to public transport must only ever be a last resort. It is supply led. Cut frequency and you will cut usage. Especially when we're talking about routes that serve corridors with a strong propensity to use public transport for diverse purposes throughout the day such as many of our trams in denser areas. Cuts in off-peak frequency are particularly to be avoided while small peak reductions (where the service remains 'turn up and go') may go un-noticed.

Consequently simply reversing the 2018 upgrades wholesale without considering alternatives such as adjusting peak period service levels only or wider network reform would not constitute sound planning in this regard. 

See other Timetable Tuesday items here