Tuesday, September 13, 2022

TT 172: Graphic: Dandenong line's weekend service cliff

Since the largely unreversed timetable cuts in 1978, Melbourne has had the least frequent urban evening trains of any comparable city in the developed world. 

With typical 30 minute gaps between them, many trips can be driven in less time than it takes for the next train to come. Sunday mornings are even worse with 40 minute gaps on about half the network. 

Even Atlanta, Georgia, hardly known for its transit, beats us with a consistent 20 minute first to last train frequency, even on Sundays. 

Sydney used to be like us but large service upgrades in 2017 reduced maximum waits from 30 to 15 minutes at many stations. That's been a game-changer, building the trust that you can turn up at a station late at night and be on a train within a reasonable time.  

Melbourne City Council and the State Government talk endlessly about us being a sophisticated global 24 hour city. However the latter doesn't 'walk the walk' when it comes to all day / all week frequent transport. While Night Network added a skeleton hourly 'safety net' service, after 7pm train timetables still shout a loud 'go home before dark' message to those who may still be there at dusk. That's especially on a weekend due to train service levels falling off a cliff to the half-hour gaps like seen in backwaters like Brisbane (which can't even build continuous footpaths). 

The curfew effect is further reinforced by our suburban buses, most of which shut down around 9pm, and evening trams that run half as frequently as in our grandparents time. This service fall-off is most an issue for those who need transport to jobs for reasons explained here

Getting back to trains, Dandenong (our busiest line) still has them leaving every 10 minutes at 6:50pm from Flinders Street. That's good. But within 20 minutes (from 7:08pm) waits have blown out to 30 minutes, even though there's no way that demand will have collapsed by two-thirds. The quieter Frankston, Werribee and even Williamstown lines fare better with 20 min maximum evening waits thanks to 2021 upgrades

What about weeknights? The Dandenong line is special in that it keeps its 10 minute frequency running later than any other. But other key lines, notably Sunbury (to Watergardens), Craigieburn and Mernda, have big cliff with service falling to 30 minutes early on all nights of the week. The main difference is that if you draw a similar diagram to above its less dramatic since their midday frequency, at every 20 minutes, is never very high to start with. 

This is due to a pattern, discernible since Jeff Kennett, for Liberal governments to roll out improved 10-15 minute daytime rail frequencies in its favoured south and east, but Labor governments failing to follow in their north and west heartlands due to these historically been such safe seats for them. 

Cost of living is a key 2022 state election issue all across Melbourne. But when you visit the west there's a strong second factor. This is a palpable feeling of neglect at the expense of the east when it comes to government services. As I keep telling advocates in the west, all the data is on their side, at least when it comes to public transport service levels. That flows into the cost of living conversation where services are so sparse as to be almost unusable and driving is the only option.   

Below is another representation, this time across the whole network, not just one line. Each arrow is one train.


I checked published timetables and counted the number of times that 10pm appears in them. Or a time that's very close if trains are between stations at 10pm. Also if a train starts at an outer terminus at (say) 10:05pm I've counted that as it will be laying over and will otherwise evade detection if I relied on public timetables alone. 

Notable examples were Pakenham where trains arrive at 9:18, 9:48 & 10:18pm but departures are at 9:45, 10:15 and 10:45pm and Upfield (arrivals 9:17, 9:47, 10:17, departures 9:38, 10:08, 10:38). Long layovers can be a sign of scheduling inefficiency and could present an opportunity for frequencies to be boosted for less cost than expected. 

Very roughly I count about 53 Metro trains and 14 V/Line. Though there may still be a handful on long layovers or V/Lines on outer sections of line not captured. A proper count would need reference to a train graph or at least a serious reconciliation of timetables across multiple lines. Still, the exercise is enough to demonstrate that only a small proportion of the train fleet is out at this time. 

Yet another representation is provided on the after 10pm frequent network maps

Each of those trains needs a driver. How do their numbers stack up against PSOs securing our stations and passengers?  If we assume two PSOs at each of our 222 Metro stations, that gets us to 444. Bigger stations will have more so that's a conservative guess. 

There's also regular station staff at Premium stations and a huge unsung support crew needed to keep the system working and clean. Hence drivers are only a small proportion of the rail workforce. 

This illustrates the point that railways have high fixed costs. If you're are going to have a railway you might as well run its services frequently all day. The marginal additional costs of doing so are relatively small for the dramatically increased utility such as shorter waits and faster end-to-end travel time.

The benefits, power and cost-effectiveness of frequency is a lesson Melbourne would do well to heed, especially as parties prepare their transport policies for the 2022 state election. 

Index to other Timetable Tuesday items here

1 comment:

Heihachi_73 said...

The Dandenong line used to be even worse back in the M>Train era. I missed a train at Pakenham one night around twenty years ago and was stuck there for a whole hour until the next. Yes, suburban trains beyond Dandenong ran hourly after dark! I can't remember if it was a Sunday night or throughout the week, but the train was in the platform and didn't move for 50-odd minutes, and it was the only train there aside from a V/Line service heading further east.

As for Melbourne (the entirety of Greater Melbourne, not just the CBD), it is nowhere near a 24 hour city, unless you really like Maccas and/or gambling.