Clarinda's 1 for 2 SRL road closure bus deal: Any good?

Changes are proposed for Clarinda area buses in the middle of this year. Route 821 between Clayton and Southland will be deleted. Route 631 will be rerouted and gain extra weekday peak and Sunday morning trips. And as can happen with bus reform, some passengers will be better off while others will be less so. 

Do the benefits greatly outweigh the losses? Keep reading!

Locals found out about the proposal after seeing a notice on a walk. It reached a somewhat wider audience when a photo of it was posted on the SRL Community Discussion Facebook group. There's nothing about it yet on the PTV website service change page (as of 21/2/2023) even though the change is significant and providing such advice here is standard practice for bus network consultations in other areas. UPDATE: PTV website advice added Tuesday afternoon. 

The street poster (pictured below) seeks public feedback in a low-key manner. Unlike recent bus network reviews, which featured an easy online survey, people need to compose an email or phone PTV to have their say. There is just over a month to do this with a March 17 deadline. However given the very emphatic "We're making changes" language and that they are being triggered by a permanent road closure, the difference feedback could make is uncertain.  
 

Clarinda is one of Melbourne's most culturally diverse neighbourhoods. The PTV poster is English only even though those speaking English at home are a minority in many areas the affected routes pass through. Clarinda also has a fair percentage of people on low incomes. These characteristics make Clarinda more like Springvale/Noble Park than much less diverse Dingley Village or parts of Heatherton (also served by both routes). 

The Suburban Rail Loop (which did run surveys in languages other than English) will pass through Clarinda area neighbourhoods. With the SRL plans lacking a station in the 7km stretch between Southland and Clayton, the project's local benefits will be limited unless really good feeder buses are provided. More on how this change should be transformed into an opportunity to lay the groundwork on that later.  

Clarinda (the suburb) has given its name to the geographically larger state seat. It has reliably returned Labor MPs. However, like demographically similar seats in Melbourne's north and west, Labor's support is slipping with their 2022 primary vote falling 9 percent and the result coming down to preferences.  Local MP is Meng Heang Tak.  

PTV said the network changes were needed due to the permanent closure of Old Dandenong Rd in Heatherton. Route 631 currently operates along Old Dandenong Rd but would not be able to after the closure. Though not stated in the above poster, the closure is due to Suburban Rail Loop's train stabling being built in the area. Heatherton residents, who want the train yard somewhere else, say that the closure will also extend driving distances to local services. 

Existing bus network

Mapped below. Routes 631 and 821 both run from Southland to Clayton with 631 continuing, somewhat indirectly, to Waverley Gardens via Monash University. Route 824 is roughly east-west, starting at Moorabbin and continuing to Keysborough via Clayton. Routes 703 and 733 skirt the northern part of the area along Centre Rd with significant overlap until 733 turns north to Oakleigh via a path behind Warrigal Rd. Routes typically operate every 30 minutes off-peak weekdays except for  703 every 15 minutes, 824 every 20 minutes and 821 every hour (and not on weekends). The network is basically unchanged from 30 years ago though some routes got timetable upgrades about 15 years ago. 

The Moorabbin industrial area is served by more north-south than east-west routes. East-west routes are typically occasional deviations of routes 811, 812 and 821 on Keys Rd. Bernard St also has Route 821 and 631 operating along part of it. Jobs in the area are poorly connected to the Frankston train line with routes like 631, 767and 821 stopping short of stations on it. Discussed in detail here. 

Proposed network

This is a 'swings and roundabouts' affair. Some people will be better off while others will be worse off. It appears to be close to a 'cost neutral' exercise with upgrades on Route 631 funded by deleting Route 821 entirely. Route 631 also changes alignment so not everyone on the current 631 will benefit. 

The service gains on the 631 include a worthwhile peak period boost from every 30 to every 20 minutes. The benefits of this are quite wide, extending east to Waverley Gardens Shopping Centre. It is however expensive to provide as 631 is a long route. Neither is it necessarily cost-effective since not much of 631 can be considered to be unique catchment. The reason for this goes back to the origins of 631 as a route drawn up to use spare buses after the government lost a contract dispute in the 1980s. Subsequent reform has only partially addressed some of the overlaps that created. 

The other 631 improvement is some extra trips on Sunday mornings. This is also useful as many ex-Moorabbin Transit routes have a habit of starting later than they should on weekends, possibly due to a misinterpretation of the minimum service standards about 15 years ago (and not subsequently corrected). Route 824 (also in Clarinda) has the same problem, but is apparently not getting a similar timetable upgrade despite its low cost.

Below is the PTV poster map with annotations to more clearly explain the changes.   

Who gains, who loses?

The reformed 631 is made more like the current 821 except that it veers off Clayton Rd between Centre and South Rd. It is operated along more of Springs Rd, passing near Clarinda Shopping Centre. However this alignment removes it from Bunney and Clarinda Rds, leaving western Clarinda and adjoining parts of Oakleigh South with the 824 only.

Those near Carroll and Bunney are particularly disadvantaged by the 631's rerouting, being placed more than 400 metres from any public transport. In contrast, because the moved 631 is more frequent with longer hours than the deleted 821, those near Clayton Rd are better off. The same can be said for low density areas on Kingston Rd east of Old Dandenong Rd. 

Where two routes are replaced with one there is an overall reduction from 3 to 2 buses per hour in weekday off-peak times. However this is not as bad as it seems as the 3 buses per hour was never even and parts of Clayton Rd have other routes like the 824. Catching buses to Clayton will however be more confusing on parts of Bourke Rd as you will need to wait at the eastbound stop for the 824 and across the road at a westbound stop for the rerouted 631.

Better clarity of winners and losers is below. 

To summarise, Clarinda is the biggest loser from these proposals with reduced Route 631 coverage. That's important as 631, unlike other routes like 703, 733 and 824, operate to the nearest major shopping centre (Southland). Some of Heatherton and part of the Moorabbin industrial area also go backwards.

However Clayton South, including some low density areas, is generally better off. As are those along the rest of the 631 from Clayton to Mulgrave and around Friendship Square in Cheltenham.

Solutions

Politically you can't blame the government for not announcing this before last year's state election as wins hardly exceed losses and you'd be giving an opening for its opponents to campaign on a 'stop the bus cuts' platform. Just because you can never please everyone with bus reform doesn't mean it shouldn't happen if there is an over-riding greater good. 

Unfortunately this plan does not have enough 'winners' to sufficiently outweigh the losses in areas like Clarinda that need better public transport. If you're not going to give them an SRL station the least you can do is provide good bus service. This change does not do this nor even establish how it might be done in the future.  

This proposal's problems appear to stem from the following:  

1. It had to be strictly cost-neutral. Route 631 being much longer than Route 821 placed a limit on how much you could boost 631 services by deleting the 821. The strict cost neutrality prevented even measures that did not require new bus purchases from happening. Potential sweeteners could have included running Route 631 (which is strongly performing route) every 20 minutes interpeak weekdays and weekends rather than just peak periods. Given that this network change was necessitated by the SRL project (a road closure) an argument may exist for it to be funded by it.   

2. Its scope was the bare minimum, being confined to two routes - 631 and 821 - the latter of which this proposal deletes. Inclusion of surrounding routes like 703, 704, 705, 733 and 824 (even if just for timetable upgrades) would have made the proposal more palatable in Clarinda. People may still have to walk further (or change to a train for Southland) but at least the service they are walking to or from would be better. It is understood that some passengers are willing to walk further to a bus if it was more frequent. The (then) Department of Transport asked people this in a bus reform survey of northern suburbs passengers last year but aren't asking this of Clarinda residents.  

Any solution would likely have to be without the first and preferably also the second constraint. Options, of varying quality, could include: 

A. Direct and frequent approach 

Here we accept the proposed PTV network including walking distances up to 800 metres. But as a quid pro quo compensations like longer operating hours and improved all day frequency are added to reduce waiting. A recipe for this could include: 

1. Boost Route 631 to operate every 20 minutes 7 days per week with some extra am and pm span (especially weekends). This does not require additional buses as 20 minutes is already proposed for peak periods. Ideally associated with network reform in the Waverley Gardens area for best efficiency. 

2. Boost Route 824 to operate every 20 minutes 7 days with some extra am and pm span. Route 824 has a particular problem with late weekend start times so this should be top priority. This does not require additional buses as 20 minutes already operates on weekdays (for its western portion). Ideally associated with network reform in the Keysborough area for best efficiency.

3. Boost Route 703 to operate every 15-20 minutes on weekends with some extra am and pm span. This does not require additional buses as a ~15 minute service already operates on weekdays. While expensive the resultant service upgrade would cover a wide area as far west as Brighton and north to Blackburn. Ideally associated with network reform to Route 733 to reduce duplication on Centre Rd.  

B. Quick & dirty coverage fix

You might come up with something like this if you have an urgent request at 5pm on a Friday afternoon to quell a mounting protest about people losing their bus stop. It's basically the PTV proposal but with existing 631 stops kept in Bunney and Clarinda roads to retain coverage. This is at the expense of speed, directness and legibility (as the Bourke Rd problem mentioned before would happen at more stops). And the extra 1.5km or so would increase operating costs. In an extreme case you may be unable to run an even 20 minute peak timetable and may need to use an extra bus off-peak, further increasing costs. Or, if you really had to keep 631's run time down you might (controversially) skip Monash University and run the route straight to Waverley Gardens via Centre Rd to provide a fast Clayton Station feeder. 

Despite the problems this network could get you out of an evening's bother and your boss out of the news. The only problem is that bodge jobs like these look like they've been done on too many bus routes, leading to the often complex network we have today. 

C. Real network reform (including SRL SmartBus)

This requires more planning effort (and funding) than the 631/821 change currently being pushed. But the benefits are much greater. And any increased costs are a very small percentage of the sums involved in the Suburban Rail Loop which set off the need for these changes anyway. 

A wider view can help because surrounding routes may have duplicative overlaps that could be modified to help Clarinda. Likely candidates include 704, 705, 733 and 824. 703 is also in the mix but only for timetable upgrades as its route alignment is already strong. Reform opportunities include a. the duplicative nature of Route 733 west of Clayton with other routes, b. the indirectness of 631 east of Monash University, c. the overlap of Route 824 with other routes in the Keysborough area and d. potential over servicing of Route 704 relative to usage. 

Clarinda is somewhat remote from rail but has no full-service SmartBus serving it. Neither will it receive an SRL station. However its demographics and population are significant enough to have some form of high order bus connection. 

The most logical concept for this is SRL SmartBus connecting Clarinda with key destinations such as Southland, Clayton, Monash Clayton and Box Hill. At its best this would be a high frequency long hours limited stop service operating with good priority for adequate travel speed. It would be a key feeder for the Suburban Rail Loop once it opens and a precursor for building its patronage beforehand. 

Even if these points cannot all be delivered at once the corridor should at least be established with a better than average 7 day service through the area with now the best time to start.

The most suitable existing bus route between Box Hill and Clayton for this is the 733 (which got some 2022 budget funding for a boost). The nearest existing bus route between Clayton and Southland for this is the 631. Both routes go on to serve other destinations but flexibility exists to split both routes at Clayton to form a single through service from Box Hill to Southland, serving 4 out of 6 SRL station locations. Both 631 and 733 are both run by Ventura, making such an amalgamation easier.  

Several alignments for SRL SmartBus are possible. Each has pros and cons with regards speed, coverage and economy. To allow adequate coverage and the highest possible frequency to be funded it needs to be planned in conjunction with other routes to minimise duplication. 

One rough concept network is below. It deletes both 631 and 821 but replaces them with two other routes in the area that get extended to Southland. These include the 733 from Clayton (to form an SRL SmartBus) and the 704 from Oakleigh. The 704 extension retains an Oakleigh connection to the area that removing the 733 from Oakleigh would otherwise lose. Surrounding routes 703, 705 and 824 would be unchanged though timetable upgrades would be desirable, especially weekend hours and frequencies on the 824. 

As you are replacing two existing routes with two extended routes the result is less disruptive than the PTV proposal which replaces two routes with one. The Bourke Rd problem is also resolved as the westbound 704 bus runs to Oakleigh and not Clayton. The eastern (Clayton - Westall) portion of 704 could remain but this is a very short route so there could be gains from amalgamating this with the remaining eastern part of the 631 to create a direct Centre Rd Waverley Gardens - Clayton feeder via the newly removed level crossing. 

The network has a clear hierarchy with the two more frequent routes, the 733 and 824, being most direct (subject to what the road network allows) and the coverage / industrial area feeder 704 less so. Connectivity to Clarinda Shopping Centre is excellent. 733 overlaps a portion of the 824 but the alignment shown has a large residential catchment including coverage of the shopping centre. Scope may exist to make it limited stop if travel time is objectionable. A 733 via Clayton and Kingston Rd would offers better directness but has inferior population catchment to the alignment below. 

Each network concept contains a series of judgements and this is no exception. For example it is thought that Warrigal Rd is sufficiently close to Golf Rd (about 400m) not to require a bus on the latter. If this is accepted then this opens scope for an economical 733 / 631 amalgamation and supports a higher network aim towards SRL SmartBus. If it is not accepted then a coverage alternative would be needed for Golf Rd. However if you agree with that then you cannot possibly support the PTV network proposal for Clarinda due to the even larger coverage gaps that this creates.

Conversely some might take a more ruthless approach to coverage, saying that even the above map has too many overlaps. Some economies may be possible by leaving 704 as is and rerouting 733 via Bunney Rd, however this has its own problems including lessening connectivity with the local shopping centre and an extra turn on what should be a direct route. There could also be issues for Kingston Rd and Friendship Square as these would lose long-standing services. You will however note that 704 is drawn as a thinner line to indicate lower frequency than 824 and much lower frequency than the extended 733. 

Conclusion

The Department of Transport and Planning has proposed bus network changes for Clarinda. They are a  mixed bag for passengers. Some people, especially in Oakleigh South and Clarinda, will face a longer walk to services that are still not particularly frequent. Others will gain from the 631 upgrades.

However the basically zero budget of this change and its non-consideration of other routes in the area limit its benefits versus disbenefits. Some flexibility here could have improved public acceptance of reform with an overall better network. And set the area up for even better service in the future.

What do you think? Please leave them in the comments below.