Are there too many rail shutdowns?

Having a dependable 'always there' service is the first requirement if you want people to use rail and, longer term, build their housing and other land uses around it.

This requires a 'show must go on' culture amongst those who oversee and operate rail.  

The strength of this culture has varied over the decades and is certainly weaker here than in say Japan. 

Why have trains not run?

What have been the main causes of Melbourne's rail network not being dependable?

It's varied over the decades. 

Strikes

For several decades up to the early 1990s rail strikes were not uncommon. 

That and the prevailing politico-economic fashion led to a stack of reform including splitting suburban rail into business units and franchising to private operators. Reliability improved in the last few years of Met Trains and the first few years of franchising (from the late 1990s to 2003). Around 2000 I remember generally successfully making 0 minute cross-platform interchanges from up Frankstons to down Dandenongs at Caulfield when trains on both lines came every 30 minutes. 

Picking up the pieces from franchising's collapse

However Franchising Mk 1 was not financially sustainable and collapsed with National Express walking out. Then faddish competition theory doctrine usurped common sense and divided the network. And at least National Express skimped on driver recruiting and training. That led to a staff shortage and thus an upsurge in delays and cancellations from late 2003. 

Patronage pressures, infrastructure issues and bad scheduling

Then surging CBD employment, fuel prices led to a patronage boom on a network poorly equipped to cope. Crowding, an infrastructure maintenance backlog and unsuitable timetables put reliability into freefall for nearly a decade, with frequent cancellations and delays.

Officialdom washed their hands of this, blaming the private operators but passengers were not fooled. Privateers do what privateers do (ie maximise returns to shareholders) so contract oversight is essential for good performance. Rail trouble-shooter Simon Lane blamed weak departmental management for shortcomings here.  

Rail reliability had become a hot-button political issue with a general political consensus to fix it. Enough had been done by 2012-2013 for reliability to rebound to almost 2003 levels. That Coalition government did not get much political credit for this and associated frequency increases. Apart from this government's generally well received PSO program it was most known for studying various rail extensions but not actually building much (though it inherited and continued - at reduced scope - the construction of the Regional Rail Link). 

Big Build disruptions

Big Build projects have not been without benefits. You need to crack eggs to make an omelette as they say. But they are also now a major cause of many trains not running with shutdowns needed to facilitate construction. In duration these range from a few hours in an evening to a weekend to several weeks or more.  

Regardless of them being planned rather than unplanned, there is no question that with many hours of extra travel and waiting added per week, protracted rail replacements have been highly disruptive for those not in cushy desk jobs with work from home options. Doubly so for those working nights or weekends due to Melbourne's notoriously low rail frequencies then. 

And just when people thought it was safe to go back to using the train there'll likely be another shutdown. They can cascade such that they become an expectation rather than an exception over five years or more. If you have an event or work roster change coming up you cannot assume that trains will be running to get you there. 

This unreliability has erased trains from many peoples' mental maps as a practical transport option. That's significant because, especially for car owners, reliability is a major reason for choosing rail. The cause may be different but the damage to rail's standing is similar to the 1970s-1990s period due to strikes or about 15 years ago due to recurring network meltdowns.

Frequent occupations may be one reason that lines like Frankston have yet to recover to their pre-pandemic patronage levels. When you compare the huge rail patronage growth projections made circa 2015 with the 'lost decade' we subsequently got, business cases for huge capital projects weaken. Especially when compared against the benefits from fully utilising our existing rail assets (which Melbourne, unlike Sydney, isn't very good at).  

Do we need so many bus replacement events? 

This Taitset video says we probably don't. There have been instances where major works have been done with only minimal bus replacements. It recommends 'service first' with bus replacements being a last rather than a first option.  

Could replacement buses be better? 

Another Taitset video with some ideas on improving the experience. 

Could more frequent train and bus timetables help?

The short answer is yes. Replacement buses typically operate at the same frequency as trains, especially at night and on weekends. In Melbourne we have busy lines that have low frequencies outside peak, for example Craigieburn, Mernda and Werribee. Low frequencies increase maximum waits if replacement buses arrive early or late to the station from which connecting trains depart. The state budget earlier this week has commendably funded removal of 30-40 min waits on the Upfield and Craigieburn lines but this is needed on the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups too. 

Even though it has a lot of bus replacements its better frequency is why catching substitute buses is less chancy on the Frankston line than some others. This is because apart from early weekend mornings the longest you'll wait for a Frankston line train is 20 minutes, with a 10 minute service running for much of the day. In contrast waits on busy lines like Craigieburn are normally double with typical 40 minute Sunday morning, 30 minute evening and 20 minute day. Boosting all day rail frequencies is thus one way of making the bus replacement experience better on the less served lines.  

Improved frequencies on regular bus routes has a stack of benefits. One that's often overlooked is their ability to help with planned or unplanned rail disruptions. Many planned disruptions are done on the weekends - the precise time when buses are least frequent in Melbourne. Reformed more direct bus routes with higher 7 day frequencies and longer operating hours provide alternatives for some passengers to get trains across to parallel train lines that may still be running. This could relieve stress on rail replacement buses.  

Conclusion

Organisational power relations in public transport need a reset if metropolitan rail patronage is to break out of its post-pandemic flatlining and the Metro Tunnel is to achieve full usage potential. More specifically a restoration of the "show must go on" service culture is needed. That could include rail occupations being a last rather than a first resort, with DTP more active in refusing some and seeking ways to shorten others.

It is understood that rail disruptions before the 2010 state election did not help the Brumby government. If the (by then 12 year old) state government wants to get full credit for its project builds in the 2026 election then it could do better than show there's "light at the end of the tunnel" by prioritising reliable and frequent service.