UN 205: Will GPT replace DTP? An AI derived bus network for Box Hill

An ABC item earlier this month says that AI-based large language models like Chat GPT could help plan cities. An Age article says that AI bots could help slim down the Victorian public service. That's topical given the state government is looking for savings with its Silver review due to report this month. 

So for fun I gave ChatGPT a task:  

Describe a reformed bus network for the Box Hill area with a list of main routes and the roads they travel on.

This is the response, pasted verbatim, including formatting. 

🚌 Proposed Key Bus Routes for Box Hill Area

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Route 1: Box Hill – Deakin University – Burwood Station (University Link)

• Primary Purpose: High-frequency link to Deakin University

• Roads: Whitehorse Rd → Elgar Rd → Riversdale Rd → Station St (Burwood)

• Frequency: Every 10 min peak / 15 min off-peak

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Route 2: Box Hill – Doncaster Shoppingtown via Station St

• Primary Purpose: Cross-suburban shopping and employment access

• Roads: Station St → Doncaster Rd

• Frequency: Every 10–15 min

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Route 3: Box Hill – Blackburn – Forest Hill – Vermont South

• Primary Purpose: East–west connector through middle suburbs

• Roads: Whitehorse Rd → Blackburn Rd → Canterbury Rd → Burwood Hwy

• Frequency: Every 15 min

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Route 4: Box Hill – Surrey Hills – Camberwell

• Primary Purpose: Local access and feeder to Camberwell Station

• Roads: Whitehorse Rd → Union Rd → Riversdale Rd

• Frequency: Every 20 min

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Route 5: Box Hill – Mitcham – Ringwood

• Primary Purpose: East–west orbital route

• Roads: Whitehorse Rd → Springvale Rd → Maroondah Hwy

• Frequency: Every 15 min

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Route 6: Box Hill – Donvale – Ringwood North

• Primary Purpose: North-east local connector

• Roads: Elgar Rd → Wetherby Rd → Mitcham Rd → Warrandyte Rd

• Frequency: Every 30 min (coverage route)

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Route 7: Box Hill – Glen Waverley

• Primary Purpose: South-east orbital route, university + train link

• Roads: Elgar Rd → Highbury Rd → Springvale Rd → Kingsway (Glen Waverley)

• Frequency: Every 15 min

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Route 8: Box Hill – Balwyn – Kew – Clifton Hill

• Primary Purpose: North–south route into inner suburbs

• Roads: Whitehorse Rd → Balwyn Rd → Harp Rd → High St

• Frequency: Every 20 min

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🚏 Supporting Feeder & Local Routes

• Shorter, less frequent routes feeding into Box Hill and key train stations.

• Potential local shuttles to areas like Greensborough, Mont Albert North, Forest Hill Chase, etc.

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🎯 Network Features

• Simplified, straight routes with fewer deviations.

• Clockface frequencies for ease of use.

• Improved weekend & evening services.

• Integration with trains and trams, especially at Box Hill, Glen Waverley, and Camberwell.

• Direct access to major trip generators like Deakin University, Box Hill Hospital, and shopping centres.

Chat GPT's map

You could request a map. The output gave me a Python script. I wanted to bypass this for an image I could present directly. That required me to log in to ChatGPT. 

The result was what you see below (click for a better view). There is no geographical accuracy. Eg Ringwood North is shown south of Camberwell and a long way from Ringwood while Glen Waverley is north-east of Doncaster. 

My map of 8 main routes

Using the written route descriptions I tried to make a map that was geographically accurate with regards to Box Hill, route termini and streets the routes would run along. That proved a challenge as some route descriptions lacked sufficient detail to make their paths unambiguous. My best attempt is below:  

As instructed the network is centred on Box Hill. Some routes are sensible. Others are sensible but could be longer to connect with other destinations (like existing routes currently do). Others you might not do.

Quick comments on each are as follows: 

1. Box Hill - Burwood station. Alignment is good between Box Hill and Deakin Uni, being similar to existing popular routes. However Burwood station on the quiet Alamein line is a weak terminus. Also this section of the route would overlap the longer and more frequent 75 tram so you wouldn't' do it. .  

2. Box Hill - Doncaster. An useful and direct connection this segment is currently served by the much longer 903 orbital. If it was linked to the Route 1 proposed above it would match a longer section of the 903. 

3. Box Hill - Vermont South. Has similarities with the existing 732 but is shorter and goes along more of Whitehorse Rd. 

4. Box Hill - Camberwell. A route with benefits for Surrey Hills but it inefficiently overlaps too much of the 70 tram on Riversdale Rd. 

5. Box Hill - Ringwood. Description here is ambiguous (with mention of Springvale Rd) but I've understood it to mean a direct Whitehorse Rd/Maroondah Hwy route. Not without merit despite it paralleling a rail line as there are a large number of destinations along the highway.  Existing routes like 271, 279 and 901 serve this section but not continuously. There may be a case to be splitting Route 901 at Ringwood and South Morang and rethinking what happens in between. That might include a Box Hill - Ringwood route on the highway. 

6. Box Hill - Ringwood North. The route description was not clear so what you see on the map is possibly not what was intended. This was described as a coverage route with a 30 min frequency (most of the others were every 15 min).

7. Box Hill - Glen Waverley. The alignment and the frequency is good in that, combined with Route 1, this would provide a 7.5 minute frequency between Box Hill station and Deakin University. The current network does not provide a direct Box Hill to Glen Waverley bus as one would not add a lot of new coverage. However it does link two major activity centres. This concept has similarities with a Liberal election promise in 2022 which may be where ChatGPT got the idea. 

8. Box Hill - Clifton Hill. Alignment again not clear, especially at Clifton Hill end. Parts have similarities with existing Route 302 (though this goes into the city). 

The above was the first network option that came up. Had I asked ChatGPT a different question or given it guidance the result will have been different. 

Conclusion

This (free) version of ChatGPT AI has a way to go when it comes to designing bus networks.

But more advanced paid types with more data input and other guidance may produce more sensible networks. 

Or, given the planning and scheduling software already used in the industry like HASTUS and Remix maybe an AI plug-in to enhance its planning function is how this will evolve in the future? 

What about other applications for AI in transport? AI can give reasonable answers for things like customer feedback. Maybe even journey planning. It might help with advocacy or submission writing, like I tried here.

However the AI you get when you do a Google search can mix things up. For instance when I did various searches on the Bus Plan the result conflated official and unofficial sources, such as from DTP and my blog. Personally I would love the day that a lazy official, unaware of this, produces a report that includes slabs of my blog as official policy. 

The old saying is 'Garbage In, Garbage Out'. Proper use of AI possibly means that its search be limited to official and verified sources rather than what just anyone says. Though DTP/PTV data can be wrong so an official source is not by itself a guarantee of correctness. AI risks just exacerbating existing errors. AI also needs a knowledgeable driver - that is people using it need to be learned enough that they can spot an error and correct.  

Comments on AI's potential role in transport are appreciated and can be left below. 

See other Useful Network items here