A prestigious client with a great credit rating, little commercial risk and billions in revenue over the multi-year life of the contract. You have to be pretty greedy, stupid or negligent to stuff it up.
Even then about the worst that normally happens is non-renewal. Sure, franchise agreements do have penalty, call in and early termination provisions but Victoria's Department of Transport (or equivalent) as contract owner is apparently pretty forgiving nowadays .
Arguably it's hard for them to be otherwise when (a) it's the government's own construction agenda that forces some lines to be more replacement buses than trains and (b) there hasn't been much progress on factors, such as a lack of priority, that cause trams and buses to get stuck in traffic and run late through no fault of the operator.
The train and tram franchises have always been big. More recently the bus ones have become so. The new ZEB bus contracts finally realise the 'Grow or Go' dream of 1980s transport bureaucrats. That is buses are run by five or six big operators with small family companies basically squeezed out. If you wish to enter the industry you basically now have to get a job with a big, often multinational, operator rather than buy a small company's routes and try to expand from there.
The state government is a monopsony buyer of public transport services. Given their size and duration, the stakes are high if you are a current operator wishing to get a contract extension or an aspirant wishing to set up in Victoria.
There is a whole bidding and lobbying industry around winning and keeping public transport contracts. The next franchise to come up is the biggest of the lot - the right to run Melbourne's Metro trains (Metro being a brand name owned by the State Government).
This is known as MR5 (Metropolitan Rail Franchising 5). This will be the fifth iteration of public transport franchising with themes explained here. There was already an MR5 for trams (with KDR losing to Transdev) but MR5's start for trains was delayed to enable a smooth start to Metro Tunnel operations under the current operator MTM.
Though union and Labor party members back increased scrutiny of franchises and a reversion to public operation, all indications so far are that MR5 refranchising will proceed as envisaged. Indeed just yesterday DTP advertised for an MR5 Transition Officer.
How do we know? A company wishing to bid to run our trains will be setting up an office and wanting to know the locals. They may poach senior staff from incumbent franchisees or DTP, the franchisor. It's a bit of a risk for them so their pay offer may need to be generous.
However the Silver Review threatens staff cuts across Victoria's government sector, including DTP. Things are already in a state of flux with some recent departures from DTP. So expect some former DTP people to to pop up working for or advising private operators. Indeed varied experience across both government and operators is highly valued when you examine the career paths of senior managers like Warwick Horsley and Alan Fedda. TfNSW has announced staff cuts, things are pretty crook in the UK and our big infrastructure pipeline is slowing so the transport labour market may weaken for a while (unless bosses want to drive buses on one-third pay).
But back to MR5. As well as stationing would-be managers here, aspirant operators will have engaged government intelligence, advisory and lobbying outfits. Essentially they are buying local knowledge and connections given that the typical lobbying firm will be staffed by people who worked in media, a political party, ministerial or premiers office. A LinkedIn search of their profiles will prove interesting.
It's no surprise then that 2024-2025 has seen increased activity on the Victorian Lobbyists Register with regards to transport operators due to bus and then rail franchises coming up.
To answer the question "Who lobbies for whom?", here's what I've been able to glean:
* Counsel House Keolis Downer has used their services since March 2025, although Keolis bought out Downer's share more recently. Keolis Downer won the tram franchise in 2009 (as MR3), retained it under MR4 but lost the MR5 franchise to Transdev. Also works with automotive bodies.
* Fitzpatrick and Co A very new outfit with just one client, it has advised MTR Corporation since August 2025. MTR is the current operator of Metro Trains. Their main job will likely be to ensure that MTR retains the franchise under MR5.
* John-Paul Blandthorn Has advised National Trunk Rail since February 2025.
* Philip Reed Kinetic Group since November 2019. Kinetic is the long-term operator of SkyBus and won the franchise for Melbourne's busiest bus routes (including SmartBus orbitals) from Transdev in January 2022. More recently Kinetic gained some routes in this year's Zero Emissions Bus franchises. Has been engaged by CDC Victoria since December 2020. Also Conduent Transportation Solutions (the myki replacement people) since October 2021. Associated with The Agenda Group.
* PRX Been doing Puffing Billy's political lobbying since June 2020. Puffing Billy is a major tourist attraction that sometimes gets government grants. Has been engaged by Dysons, a major bus operator in Melbourne's north-east, since July 2025. Other transport-related clients also include the Victorian Transport Association and TWU Super.
* RedBridge Group Kinetic group was added in August 2020 (see previously for more). Also Avalon Airport since September 2021. The Go Ahead Group was a previous client but the association ceased in June 2025. More on them below.
Are there any aspirant operators without lobbyists appointed? French operator RATP Dev recently advertised for a commercial manager in Melbourne so they could be one to keep an eye on.
UPDATE: August 22, 2025 announcement on MR5 commencement for metropolitan trains.