UN 171: New Route 475 - another weekday Useful Network addition

The latest 2022 state budget bus initiative to be funded started last Sunday, March 24. It is the new Route 475, a bus serving growth areas between Diggers Rest and Sunday. 

You might expect this to be the standard every 40 minute affair as we're so used to seeing with local buses. However you'd be wrong. And pleasantly surprised. Because not only will the 475 run every 20 minutes in the peaks but also weekday interpeak and early evenings too.

Operating hours meet and in some cases slightly exceed MOTC minimum standards for local routes. Weekend frequency is typically every 40 min during the day and 30 min at night, with both matching train frequency.  

Run time is approximately 23 minutes. On its own this isn't an efficient fit for a bus route that at most times runs either every 20 or 40 minutes. Fortunately the route has gone to the local Sunbury bus operator which runs other routes from the station. Hopefully it's been possible to find scheduling efficiencies through interlining with one or more of these routes. 

The 475's 20 minute interpeak frequency is actually better than the (Metro) train, which is currently every 40 min at both Diggers Rest and Sunbury. However I'm going to hazard a guess and say the latter is short-lived as Sunbury should get trains every 20 minutes or better when the Metro Tunnel  opens in 2025. 

Route number familiar? You're not mistaken. The previous 475 ran in the Keilor East area. It got replaced by the new route 469 and changes to the 476 in 2020. 

Passenger information and what this reveals

Firstly the good.

PTV were prompt to update its revised local area maps for Melton and Sunbury that feature the new route. PTV's website announcement presents a map of the route, such as one (should) see at bus stop timetables. Also good as it's not always done; PTV information work is sometimes done in silos with little use of material that may be produced elsewhere in the organisation despite potential usefulness for customers. Hence notices for bus changes at Yarra Valley and Donnybrook don't have maps on their main page, whereas those for Broadmeadows and Clarinda do.  

In 475's case those who write copy for PTV website didn't read (or lacked access to) the timetable. Hence when the 475 was advised it stated that it is 'every 20 minutes during peak hours on weekdays' when actual service is much better (extract below). 

People rely on DTP/PTV as a reliable source and widely repost its material. Thus if PTV gets it wrong misinformation can propagate.

Below is an excerpt from Sunbury MP Josh Bull's Facebook page about the 475 bus. Posted on March 26, the item perpetuates PTV's underselling with explicit mention of a 40 minute interpeak frequency.    

 

The above is no criticism of Mr Bull (who also happens to be Parliamentary Secretary for Transport). With information from a source that should be reliable he did his duty in informing constituents of an important new bus service. Unfortunately DTP too often lets MPs and other stakeholders down by providing incorrect or incomplete information.    

The above story is not a one-off omission to be casually shrugged off. It happens too many times for that. Rather it indicates an ingrained systemic tendency to not understand and then to undersell services on the part of PTV/DTP.

I attribute this to the following:   

a. Blindness to opportunity and the lack of a patronage growth mindset, despite usage being central to PT's community benefits, business cases for funding and even existence 
b. Retention of a commuter mentality that ignores the role of PT for the diverse trips that form the bulk of today's travel, despite the post-pandemic WFH revolution that has flattened travel patterns. 
c. A bias against buses. Because of its CBD location most DTP staff are inner suburbs dwellers who only use trains or trams.  
d. An unwillingness or inability to learn a product's benefits and features (eg flexible travel enabled by a frequent all-day timetable) when introducing it to the public 
e. Poor sales abilities and ability to inspire allies (including stakeholders like time-poor local MPs who are happy to sell initiatives that benefit their seat if presented the facts). In 475's case the MP is Josh Bull, the Parliamentary Secretary for Transport. 

All five are limiting beliefs that are restricting DPT's view of public transport, its potential for benefit and thus ability to drive growth. 

You can be sure that others in transport, whether it be Transurban, Melbourne Airport, the Level Crossing Removal Program or the Suburban Rail Loop Authority, do not box themselves in like DTP does. 

If DTP/PTV isn't getting into peoples' ears then others will be, with different agendas. It's perhaps no accident that if the government wants something big done in transport they will go to others (who think bigger and act faster) before the meek and constrained DTP. 

Wider implications for transport policy and priorities

What are some wider implications? Let's jump from one little bus route to the way tens of billions in transport funding is committed to in this state. Leadership might be a good place to start.   

The DPT Secretary's background is local government, not transport. This experience may be adequate to lead an administrative department but is perhaps less suited to be basically the network head. A role in which other cities might have the likes of an Andy Byford or even a Jeroen Weimar performing but which we effectively abolished when PTV was folded into DoT (later DPT). 

Why do I bring this up? Public transport exists in a competitive budgetary environment in which most proponents most of the time return home empty-handed. The government works within broad budgetary parameters such as income, expenditure and ability / willingness to borrow. That might have been forgotten in 2018 but is painfully obvious in 2024. 

Some expenditures are unavoidable and fixed while new initiatives are optional, more variable and often debated. There are many more requests for funding than will ever be granted. And some big commitments may put us on a path that may be favourable or unfavourable for other transport  initiatives. 

Aided by a supportive premier, transport infrastructure can claim to have done extraordinarily well in the last decade or so. 'Big Build' projects are typically overseen by separate bodies that are most certainly not apologetic about their existence or their projects' worth. Ken Mathers, for one, definitely wasn't. SRLA's Frankie Carroll or RPV's Nicole Stoddart regularly use LinkedIn to inspire staff and associates to convey a sense of joint mission. With a static page, DTP's Paul Younis does not use this channel despite its potential for good.   

Small infrastructure and service initiatives, despite high BCRs, have been much less funded. The much meeker DTP has carriage of these. As noted above it doesn't always sell the few service initiatives it does win funding for particularly well.

This occasionally frustrate ministers who've after fighting to get funding reasonably expect a publicity and ideally political dividend in return. The minister may put themselves out on a limb by publicly releasing plans (like for bus and tram), hoping the department's secretary would effectively advocate them. But if opportunities are not seized plans may fail to win funding and sink almost without trace (such as with the bus plan and possibly also the tram plan).

Whether you wish to sell something good you're doing, share a vision across your people and wider government or even get a minor bus timetable change done quicker than a level crossing removal, then DTP as it currently stands may not be the best equipped for the job. Other projects might cost more and have less merit but still win support with better organised backing.     

DTP institutional weakness risks creating a network comprising underutilised rail infrastructure and infrequent buses of limited usefulness due to the diverse travel patterns that modern cities demand. As we approach another time of budget stringency (partly due to high borrowings and subsequent interest payments for major infrastructure) a department that is almost apologetic for itself won't necessarily be the best equipped to win or even retain funding for the services a growing Melbourne needs. 

Update: Better late than never

The above regarding PTV underselling 475's off-peak frequency applied up to and after the service started running. It lingered long enough for it to be propagated by the local MP as recently as March 26. But, to its credit, PTV belatedly revised the wording on their website item (see below). 

This revised wording acknowledges the 20 minute all day frequency. And the reference to 'most of the daytime' is correct as there are some 23-24 minute gaps in the pm peak (defensible as pm peak train arrivals at Diggers are uneven).

However the reference to 40 minute evening frequencies still sells the service short as it is more like 30 minutes, especially on weekend evenings. That's an important distinction as many people would know that evening trains at Diggers operate every 30 minutes, making a timetable that remains coordinated until last bus a large user benefit.

While the new wording is much better than the old, there's still underselling. Hence the comments above about this being a feature of DTP's culture, at least with regards to buses, remain valid.

Given successive ministers' interest in promoting buses as a transport option, this is a restrictive mindset that they need to challenge the DTP Secretary to do better on.     

Conclusion

Route 475 is a welcome addition to the network in an area that hasn't seen changes to buses for years. 475's above average weekday frequency and operating hours should be attractive and ideally would set a precedent.

Earlier provision of buses in growth areas reduce cost of living pressures and contribute to long term patronage as fewer households will have needed to buy multiple cars even for basic trips.

The government has collected significant GAIC funds from developers of new estates. Hopefully some of these will find their way to funding the additional transport services so many of these areas need.

The weekday Melbourne Frequent Network Map has been updated to reflect this addition.

Other Useful Network items are here