Executive summary: Too many plans for bus upgrades fail. Strike while the iron is hot - make yours succeed by having it ready to fund when political will is highest. And always choose a staged program of quick wins with well-sold successes over cumbrous reviews that are rarely completed before political will and funding evaporate.
"If only we had an integrated transport plan" you hear some cry. It is an article of faith amongst transport planning professionals that Melbourne should have an integrated transport plan. Not only that but it is mandated in the Transport Integration Act 2010.
The Auditor-General called out the government for not having such an overarching plan back in 2021. The government rejects this by saying it has a lot of smaller plans and pointing to their record infrastructure spend, overwhelmingly on a small number of very large road and rail projects.
Many economists, academics and transport planning professionals distrust the current government's project-first approach. Some privately consider that more planning could have got better value for money. However unless retired or otherwise financially independent they are too dependent on government employment or contracts to look a gift horse in the eye.
Others in urban planning and housing have different views. They contend that projects like the Suburban Rail Loop are exactly what we need as for too long transport has lagged rather than shaped development. This government agrees, with it describing the SRL as both a transport and urban planning project. Preferring to get their advice from elsewhere, they have basically sidelined what you might call the old transport planning establishment, possibly due to past bad experiences when they did trust the department. DTP and its predecessors have also had periods of pretty uninspiring leadership since.
That debate is not today's topic though. Instead I'm more interested in whether the plans that exist succeeded or failed. That's important because there's many smart and engaged people who invest a lot of energy into saying "we need a plan" only for numerous said plans to gather dust, unloved and largely unimplemented.
Even comprehensive plans may hold the government's interest for a couple of years before priorities shift. Conversely there are initiatives that don't seem to be part of a wider plan yet get done and are successful.
Various plans
I'll run through the plans that cover buses but will veer into trains and trams occasionally as well.
* 1988 MetPlan
Unfortunate timing contributed to making this plan, which had many good features, fail. Within eighteen months of its release the state's public finances were in crisis and there were cuts not boosts. The minister's claim that a commitment to improvement had replaced the atmosphere of decline and decay soon proved false. However some of the directions in it (eg orbital buses) did end up happening much later.
* 2006 Meeting Our Transport Challenges
Various plans
I'll run through the plans that cover buses but will veer into trains and trams occasionally as well.
* 1988 MetPlan
Unfortunate timing contributed to making this plan, which had many good features, fail. Within eighteen months of its release the state's public finances were in crisis and there were cuts not boosts. The minister's claim that a commitment to improvement had replaced the atmosphere of decline and decay soon proved false. However some of the directions in it (eg orbital buses) did end up happening much later.
* 2006 Meeting Our Transport Challenges
While covering all modes of transport, the most enduring part of Peter Batchelor's MOTC was a program of bus service additions that has never been equalled since. The three main bus components were:
* Service upgrades and extensions for local routes, notably the addition of Sunday and evening service (to 9pm) through a program of minimum service standards.
* Expansion of the SmartBus network featuring more frequent service and longer hours on key routes, especially orbitals.
* A series of local area bus network reviews across Melbourne.
MOTC can claim to be the most successful metropolitan bus plan of those reviewed here. Receiving its first serious funding in the 2005 state budget upgrades continued to be rolled out until 2010 (when the government lost office). However momentum slowed from about 2008 as political priorities switched to fixing rail's numerous problems. About 60 to 70% of the minimum service upgrades and SmartBus was implemented with patronage rising in step with service.
The local area bus network reviews took a fair while to do. They were the least successful bus component of MOTC with only about 20% of recommendations implemented as funding was drying up when the reports were completed.
* 2012 Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail)
* Service upgrades and extensions for local routes, notably the addition of Sunday and evening service (to 9pm) through a program of minimum service standards.
* Expansion of the SmartBus network featuring more frequent service and longer hours on key routes, especially orbitals.
* A series of local area bus network reviews across Melbourne.
MOTC can claim to be the most successful metropolitan bus plan of those reviewed here. Receiving its first serious funding in the 2005 state budget upgrades continued to be rolled out until 2010 (when the government lost office). However momentum slowed from about 2008 as political priorities switched to fixing rail's numerous problems. About 60 to 70% of the minimum service upgrades and SmartBus was implemented with patronage rising in step with service.
The local area bus network reviews took a fair while to do. They were the least successful bus component of MOTC with only about 20% of recommendations implemented as funding was drying up when the reports were completed.
* 2012 Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail)
While a rail service plan with an aim to get all lines to run simpler connected timetables that were either ever 10 minutes (main lines) or 20 minutes (branch lines) all day, the NDP (Metropolitan Rail) did include a multimodal coordination framework that included a service hierarchy for buses. This included main routes every 10 minutes and other important routes operating every 20 minutes to mesh evenly with trains and trams.
There was never a publicly released NDP (Metropolitan Bus). But there was significant bus network reform along principles that would likely have been in such a plan. This included a radical new bus network in Point Cook that started when Williams Landing Station opened in 2013. 27 July 2014 was a particular high point with major bus network reforms for Brimbank, Melbourne Airport, the south-east and the Transdev network. No other day since has seen a comparable large change to buses across so many areas.
One effect of this was an increase in the number of bus routes operating every 20 minutes as I discussed here. Since that item was written (2019) there have been further additions to the '20 minute club' with service boosts on buses in Fishermans Bend, Craigieburn and Werribee. Fishermans Bend even gained two routes every 10 minutes on weekdays.
There was never a publicly released NDP (Metropolitan Bus). But there was significant bus network reform along principles that would likely have been in such a plan. This included a radical new bus network in Point Cook that started when Williams Landing Station opened in 2013. 27 July 2014 was a particular high point with major bus network reforms for Brimbank, Melbourne Airport, the south-east and the Transdev network. No other day since has seen a comparable large change to buses across so many areas.
One effect of this was an increase in the number of bus routes operating every 20 minutes as I discussed here. Since that item was written (2019) there have been further additions to the '20 minute club' with service boosts on buses in Fishermans Bend, Craigieburn and Werribee. Fishermans Bend even gained two routes every 10 minutes on weekdays.
As for the rail component, that was moving forward until 2014. But it got a major setback in 2015 as the new government ditched all interest in metropolitan service uplifts in favour of infrastructure builds. However small elements of it were implemented on 31 January 2021. And the 10/20 min pattern will guide the planning of the Metro Tunnel timetable from 1 February 2026 along with the mid 2026 timetables for Sandringham (every 10 min maximum waits weekdays), Craigieburn and Upfield (maximum 20 minute waits).
Unlike the other plans this one was developed by a political party as an election policy. In this case by Labor who won that year's state election. It was somewhat patchy with the specifics favouring outer suburbs around Cranbourne and Epping. A relatively high proportion of promises were implemented, as discussed here.
Unlike the first stage implemented in July 2014, this bold plan that included splitting the SmartBus orbitals never got implemented. It was not without strengths but poor public consultation, development by a single operator without reference to other operator's routes and service cuts in some areas were significant flaws. Developed under the previous Coalition government the proposal was scrapped by new minister Jacinta Allan who would be less accepting of bus network reform than her predecessor.
* 2016 Regional Network Development Plan
* 2016 Regional Network Development Plan
While the public transport record of the post 2014 Labor government has overwhelmingly been about building infrastructure rather than adding service, this is really only the case in metropolitan Melbourne.
All four of the last Labor premiers can claim a stronger personal attachment to regional Victoria than areas like Tarneit, Craigieburn and Dandenong. The public transport agenda of this government is overwhelmingly driven by a vision of statewide equity. That is you get the same flat fare cap to travel on services that are at least every hour (and increasingly every 40 minutes) across Melbourne and major regional cities.
A consequence of this is that when infrastructure is upgraded you are far more likely to get a large rail service uplift on regional lines than you are on metropolitan lines. Not only that but when regional lines like Ballarat and Gippsland have their timetables upgraded there are cascading upgrades for buses including service additions. This typically does not happen for metropolitan timetable changes which may get (at best) minor cost-neutral bus timetable tweaks as part of 'recoordination' (not that some routes were necessarily coordinated to start off with!).
A consequence of this approach is that regional areas get service upgrades whereas outer metropolitan areas (many in historically taken for granted Labor 'safe' seats) do not despite metropolitan routes having higher patronage productivity. The most recent Gippsland bus upgrades have been so great that at midday on a weekend the back streets of Moe gets buses as frequent as busy Bell Street near Bell Station (in both cases a 40 minute frequency). Such Moe routes also run 7 days unlike routes in similar low income but metropolitan neighbourhoods like Campbellfield and Dandenong North. Major routes have similar disparities; Route 1, the Latrobe Valley intertown route is now every 20 minutes on weekends versus 30, 40 and 60 minute gaps on main highway Melbourne bus routes on weekends.
Regional service provision remains with some gaps (Wodonga, Shepparton and Mildura still need town bus network reform and upgrades) but the general story for regional network development is one of major investment in public transport service that has exceeded that applied in major parts of metropolitan Melbourne, especially on a per-capita basis. Consequently the Regional Network Development Plan can be considered the one bus and train service-related plan that has had unwavering support for almost the entire life of this government.
All four of the last Labor premiers can claim a stronger personal attachment to regional Victoria than areas like Tarneit, Craigieburn and Dandenong. The public transport agenda of this government is overwhelmingly driven by a vision of statewide equity. That is you get the same flat fare cap to travel on services that are at least every hour (and increasingly every 40 minutes) across Melbourne and major regional cities.
A consequence of this is that when infrastructure is upgraded you are far more likely to get a large rail service uplift on regional lines than you are on metropolitan lines. Not only that but when regional lines like Ballarat and Gippsland have their timetables upgraded there are cascading upgrades for buses including service additions. This typically does not happen for metropolitan timetable changes which may get (at best) minor cost-neutral bus timetable tweaks as part of 'recoordination' (not that some routes were necessarily coordinated to start off with!).
A consequence of this approach is that regional areas get service upgrades whereas outer metropolitan areas (many in historically taken for granted Labor 'safe' seats) do not despite metropolitan routes having higher patronage productivity. The most recent Gippsland bus upgrades have been so great that at midday on a weekend the back streets of Moe gets buses as frequent as busy Bell Street near Bell Station (in both cases a 40 minute frequency). Such Moe routes also run 7 days unlike routes in similar low income but metropolitan neighbourhoods like Campbellfield and Dandenong North. Major routes have similar disparities; Route 1, the Latrobe Valley intertown route is now every 20 minutes on weekends versus 30, 40 and 60 minute gaps on main highway Melbourne bus routes on weekends.
Regional service provision remains with some gaps (Wodonga, Shepparton and Mildura still need town bus network reform and upgrades) but the general story for regional network development is one of major investment in public transport service that has exceeded that applied in major parts of metropolitan Melbourne, especially on a per-capita basis. Consequently the Regional Network Development Plan can be considered the one bus and train service-related plan that has had unwavering support for almost the entire life of this government.
* 2021 Victoria's Bus Plan
This plan was released in 2021 by the enthusiastic minister Ben Carroll. There were initial signs of renewed interest, including before the 2022 state election with major bus network reviews for Melbourne's north, north-east and Mildura publicly announced. About two years of planning work was done but Cabinet scrapped the reviews in late 2023 with other priorities apparently being more important.
While there have been some bus service improvements, there haven't been nearly as many as under the much more successful MOTC plan of 2006. Network reform is slower too, especially when compared to the pace achieved during the 2013 - 2014 era when both PTV leadership and the minister were supportive. Victoria's Bus Plan may well inspire future large service upgrades and reform like MetPlan did. But until this happens it can reasonably be regarded as a failure.
* 2023 Melbourne's Tram Plan
There's been developments regarding the new G Class trams and the Maribyrnong depot but little has been said or funded on the service side with the plan being fairly vague. Some tram service boosts have happened but DTP is weak at promoting them. Trams' low political profile may be partly because both major parties consider outer suburbs more important than inner suburbs with a Labor example below:
It is common for the government to lose interest within two years of a plan being released. The 1988 and 2021 plans were the biggest victims of such changing budgetary and political priorities.
The 2006 MOTC plan was subject to similar forces but not before large parts were implemented. An early emphasis on simple service upgrades (such as seven day service) and a minister able to secure Cabinet approval for substantial budget funding out to 2010 contributed to its success.
While it didn't have a lot of detail, the Regional Network Development Plan stands out as being the one that has retained political support the longest. I suspect this has a lot to do with the central role of regional Victoria in Labor's leadership with vocal support for fishing and acceptance of recreational hunting part of the same "see, we're not inner-city Greens" political thinking exemplified by leaders or their close relatives.
While it didn't have a lot of detail, the Regional Network Development Plan stands out as being the one that has retained political support the longest. I suspect this has a lot to do with the central role of regional Victoria in Labor's leadership with vocal support for fishing and acceptance of recreational hunting part of the same "see, we're not inner-city Greens" political thinking exemplified by leaders or their close relatives.
Lower budget 2010s era bus network reforms were done without an overarching plan, although there was a planning culture in the then PTV. They succeeded due to supportive leadership in the PTV bureaucracy (under Ian Dobbs) and at ministerial level (by Terry Mulder).
PTV successfully implemented Labor's 2014 plans after the change of government. But present a more radical proposal to a more wary minister and bus reform can die, like happened with the scrapped 2015 Transdev network. Especially if the department gets to be led by people who cannot sell public and political benefits.
PTV successfully implemented Labor's 2014 plans after the change of government. But present a more radical proposal to a more wary minister and bus reform can die, like happened with the scrapped 2015 Transdev network. Especially if the department gets to be led by people who cannot sell public and political benefits.
Even a plan to revive bus reform (as done in 2021) might fail if it proposes a strategy that takes too long to make the first steps, bites off more than it can chew, cannot be scaled, is potentially controversial, is not well sold by the department and/or lacks premier and Cabinet support.
People can spend a lot of effort lobbying for 'a transport plan'. But the record of implementation when we've had such plans has been mixed. Even successful plans rarely hold the interest of their political masters for more than a couple of years before something else captures their attention and budgets. The rare exceptions resonate politically with the government, for instance the priority this one gives to certain provincial areas.
Otherwise time is of the essence. By all means have a plan but develop it quickly. Be clear in what you want. Be able to implement quickly. Get as much funding locked in as early as you can.
Do the 3 Ms: Market Upgrades, Measure Results and Message Success to build political capital for future stages. Have a Secretary who can argue a case and a minister with weight in Cabinet. As seen recently, squandering the precious first two years on ponderous reviews risks nothing being done as political priorities change and funding interest wanes.
People can spend a lot of effort lobbying for 'a transport plan'. But the record of implementation when we've had such plans has been mixed. Even successful plans rarely hold the interest of their political masters for more than a couple of years before something else captures their attention and budgets. The rare exceptions resonate politically with the government, for instance the priority this one gives to certain provincial areas.
Otherwise time is of the essence. By all means have a plan but develop it quickly. Be clear in what you want. Be able to implement quickly. Get as much funding locked in as early as you can.
Do the 3 Ms: Market Upgrades, Measure Results and Message Success to build political capital for future stages. Have a Secretary who can argue a case and a minister with weight in Cabinet. As seen recently, squandering the precious first two years on ponderous reviews risks nothing being done as political priorities change and funding interest wanes.
And even if the prevailing political environment does not have much interest in an overarching plan or tip in much new funding it is still possible for good bus reform to happen with the right leadership in the department and a supportive minister.
1 comment:
To me, the only thing Labor got right in the outer east in an entire decade was axing the worthless 673 and 686 and merging Mont Albert and Surrey Hills station into Union - that's right, removing services, not adding them. Still waiting for the latter to shine, as the timetable was never updated and still expects the train to stop twice between Chatham and Box Hill. Labor really need to up their game in the public transport service department.
FlexiRide has been a flop since its inception, being nothing more than a crippled TeleBus everywhere except the west, where it was built from the ground up and is actually half decent (not to be confused with half-decent, as it still isn't a proper bus service with fixed stops and a normal timetable unlike TeleBus, but at least it runs seven day a week including public holidays). FlexiRide should be supplementing local routes, not being the one and only bus in the entire district. Replace slow meandering spaghetti routes through unwalkable pathless hilly circuitous cul-de-sac hell with FlexiRide and move local coverage routes to the faster secondary streets which are nowhere near as bad to navigate.
Labor also cut back the City Circle Tram to within an inch of its life, while providing no additional services in its wake (never mind the Colonial Tramcar Restaurant which was killed off entirely under the guise of safety at all of five kilometres per hour). You cannot move on a CBD tram after 8PM when they drop to every 20+ minutes (well, maybe aside from the 30 which goes past nothing useful while also going nowhere useful).
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