UN 228: Five tips to build a more fuel resilient transport network (and what the 2026 state budget should fund)

 

Three weeks ago I presented a modal shift pyramid to make our transport less dependent on imported fossil fuels, thus reducing pressure on critical industries (such as agriculture) where a fast switch is much less practical.

It included things like questioning whether a trip was necessary, considering whether it could grouped with other trips plus shifts from active to public transport. Since then the state government announced a month's fare free public transport and the federal government announced fuel tax reductions.

The Labor-aligned Dunn Street Socially Democratic podcast recently interviewed economist Adam Triggs on Australia's economic challenges. It's a long but worthwhile listen (available below).   

A stand-out message for me was that no matter what happens we're likely to be stuck with high fuel prices for a while yet. With the spectre of 1970s-style stagflation. So it makes sense to think about how we can best respond, including in transport policy. 

In this spirit I offer five tips to encourage a shift to less oil-intensive public and active transport. I'll translate them into policies, like next month's state budget could do well to fund, later. 

1. Electrification 

Melbourne is fortunate to have a large suburban electrified rail and tram network. Regional V/Line trains and a majority of suburban buses rely on diesel.

Increasing occupancy on all these can be a significant help. Signs are that the free travel month has done that (especially for V/Line) but from a fuel resilience point of view it is essential that most of this new demand comes from forgone car trips rather than mode shift from active transport or even new travel demand created. 

Our state government was wise to ignore Infrastructure Victoria's proposal to disintegrate fares to make bus travel cheaper than trains or trams. That could have shifted passengers from electric to (mostly) diesel transport, reduced passenger/driver ratios, made bus network reform harder than it already is, and very relevant today, made public transport more diesel dependent than it should be. 

But it could do more to encourage a shift to electrified PT, including measures like more frequent service on electrified modes like trains and trams and better use of electrified buses all week (ie unlike the electrified Ivanhoe bus depot where most routes don't even run Sundays). 

Longer term there is a need to electrify rail to our fast growing outer suburbs including Melton, Wyndham Vale, Wallan and a reinstated line to Clyde. 

2. Larger public transport vehicles

We need to run longer trains and get more articulated buses on popular routes. These reduce fuel used per passenger and address crowding issues. You always want some spare capacity as reliability suffers when this is maxed out and you cannot win more modal share from driving. 

3. Routes optimised for high occupancy 

This can include measures like improved directness, routes going to the right destinations and a better match between service levels and usage potential. 

The orbital SmartBus network, while a good concept at the time, is notorious for having sections that are excessively serviced relative to their patronage while other parts justify more frequency. Of even more interest for efficiency maximisers are the extent to which orbitals (especially 903 in the north and west) inefficiently overlap other routes, with uneven frequencies and long waits despite having a high number of buses per hour. An example of a corridor with high mode-shift potential is the Coburg - Northland - Heidelberg corridor with a concept described here. Millers Rd in Altona North is another example where route consolidation could provide a simpler more regular frequent service.   

In other cases the existing orbitals might be retained but could justify short workings to boost weekend frequency from 30 minutes to 15 minutes on their busiest portions. Examples could include 901, 902 and 903 around Dandenong, Springvale and Chadstone respectively. 

While the above was about buses there may be scope for optimisation for rail as well. A particularly critical eye should be cast over complex timetables with multiple stopping patterns such as operate to Geelong, Belgrave and Lilydale. 

4. Public transport frequency and hours

This is a case of building up public transport service to encourage mode shift to already popular routes and/or make service more available all week in underserved neighbourhoods with high cost of living pressures.  

5. A larger role for active transport 

Both for its own sake and as feeders to public transport. Infrastructure to avoid conflict with cars is key. Economical initiatives could include pop-up cycling lanes to encourage the large number of people who are 'interested but cautious' about cycling, especially women and families. The fast roll-out of zebra crossings, 'missing link' footpaths, tree planting for shade, signalisation of busy roundabouts and adjustment of traffic light cycles to give shorter waits for walkers are key parts of this mix. 

Priorities for the 2026 state budget

Service related

(a) Cut maximum waits on the entire Metro train network from 40-60 minutes to 20 minutes between at least 6am to midnight 7 days (possibly staged, starting with 7am - 10pm 7 days). Same for V/Line for Melton and Waurn Ponds. Progressively boost shoulder peaks on key lines such as to Craigieburn, Mernda, Werribee and Ringwood as part of a transition to an eventual 10 minute all day service. Simplify peak stopping patterns where possible.  

Starting with cutting the longest waits to 20 min first, priorities for the budget might include:

* Current 40 min gaps: Mernda, Hurstbridge and Sandringham (Sunday morning), Melton (weekends), Waurn Ponds (midday weekdays). 
* Current 30 min gaps: Belgrave and Lilydale (midday weekdays), Belgrave, Lilydale, Glen Waverley, Alamein (Sunday mornings), Mernda, Hurstbridge, Belgrave, Lilydale, Glen Waverley, Alamein (evenings).  

(b) Operating culture, maintenance and investment as necessary to reduce cancellations, boost punctuality and more consistently run longer trains (especially for V/Line which underperforms Metro). 

(c) Frequency upgrades on popular already direct bus routes to provide for a maximum 20 minute wait all week with service levels and operating hours similar to that recently implemented on key routes in Wyndham. Revive network reform (starting with tacking existing inefficient overlaps) to create more 10 minute frequent bus corridors such as identified on the Future Frequent Network.  

Example routes with good patronage potential worth upgrading in the 2026 state budget include the likes of: 150, 152, 160, 302/304, 390, 406, 408, 418, 420, 460, 472, 494, 495, 497, 508, 527, 529, 532, 533, 541, 561, 606, 623, 630, 670, 693, 708, 733, 737, 791, 811, 813, 824, 828, 833, 841, 850, 900, 901 (part), 902 (part), 903 (part), 926 and more. This is cheaper than it looks as over half already run every 20 min or better on weekdays and may just need some minor operating hours and weekend additions.  

(d) 7 day upgrades and longer operating hours on 20 to 30 popular bus routes in high needs but currently underserved areas. These would deliver cost-effective upgrades across Melbourne including suburbs like Laverton, Altona, Brooklyn, Footscray, Kensington, Ascot Vale, Broadmeadows, Campbellfield, Essendon, Coburg, Coburg North, Brunswick, Thomastown, Lalor, Springvale, Mulgrave, Noble Park North, Dandenong, Dandenong North, Doveton and Frankston.

Example 7 day upgrades worth funding in 2026 include: 237, 281, 404, 414, 431, 468, 503, 506, 526, 538, 542 (full route), 549, 559, 675, 680, 772, 787, 802, 804, 814, 844, 857, 885 and more.  

Some are already the subject of existing and potential local community campaigns.

Infrastructure related 

(a) Rail electrification to our fast growing outer suburbs including Melton, Wyndham Vale, Wallan and a reinstated line to Clyde. 

(b) Bus priority to speed bus travel on key routes. Get more articulated buses for busy routes. 

(c) Accelerated roll-out of active transport upgrades, noting the recently released Active Transport Plan. Priority should be on large numbers of low cost projects rolled out quickly, with faster approval by DTP of council initiatives in this area. Large roundabouts have similar effects for walkers as rail level crossings do for car drivers so their removal should be treated equally seriously with a large program established. 

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