Thursday, June 29, 2023

UN 158: Our part-time electric buses (Ivanhoe depot)


The state government is awfully proud of the electric buses it's getting. More and more are spreading across the network. One recently found itself at the front of state parliament. And I'm told that the party faithful rapturously lapped it up at June's state Labor conference amongst a narrative of more local jobs, cutting emissions and building the future. 

However they are only good at cutting emissions if they are out on the road providing a useful service carrying people. Although you don't necessarily need an electric bus to do that; to quote Michael Galea MLC (Hansard, 22 June 2023): 

Like for like, 40 people on a bus compared to 40 people in their cars, even with an old technology diesel bus it is still more environmentally friendly. 

So the main game in decarbonising transport with buses is making them useful to get lots of people using them. Especially if the new passengers on them previously drove. That requires network coverage, operating hours, frequency and connectivity. If you lack those then making the buses electric won't take many cars off the road.

Neither will much hyped myki replacement ticketing options nor fare-free travel. Zero emission buses and slicker ticketing are not without benefit but risk being a distraction if they are not accompanied by fixes to the network issues identified so well in Victoria's Bus Plan. In short the bus network needs to be useful, as described many times here.

Ivanhoe depot services

The first bus depot to go electric is Ventura's Ivanhoe depot in Heidelberg West. By next year it will be the largest all-electric bus depot in Australia with 27 buses. So far the roll-out seems to be going well

Today I'll ask whether the routes that run from this depot provide the all-week frequent service that's so important to getting people out of their cars and cutting emissions. Later I'll discuss how the routes fit in the network with surrounding services and how they can be made more useful.   

Operating hours

Firstly operating hours. Shown below. 



Just one out of six daytime routes operates 7 days. Saturday service operates on five routes but operating hours are limited with just one route continuing much after 6pm. At one time all six routes ran on Saturday but Route 551's timetable got cut (along with many others) in 1991. 

These service levels represent how most Melbourne buses were like before the Meeting Our Transport Challenges upgrade bitz between 2006 and 2010. Like routes serving Dandenong station, MOTC short-changed this depot with just one route (527) getting a minimum standards upgrade. Hence you could fill this depot with electric buses but they risk being quite poorly utilised on this network unless weekly service hours improve. 

Service frequency

Apart from operating hours and run time per trip the other thing that affects bus utilisation is frequency, especially the extent to which peak frequency is confined to a few hours on weekdays or is sustained all day (and preferably all week). The university and school skewed Route 548 has about the biggest fall-off as seen below:


Route 527 has a different pattern, with its 20 minute frequency largely holding up Monday to Saturday. However it falls off sharply on Sundays to about every 50 minutes despite it serving busy Northland shopping centre. 527's pattern is similar to busy routes like 406, 408 and 410. These had Monday-Saturday 15-20 minute frequencies but the Sunday service added under MOTC was a 'safety net' 40 - 60 minute frequency rather than the 20 minutes that these routes justified given their usage, catchment demographics and destinations. 

The potential utilisation of buses is least on Sunday where just the route 527 operates. And even that is operating at a much reduced frequency with 50 minute gaps. Given the ~45 minute run time this requires just two buses to operate. Though to be fair actual utilisation has however been better lately with buses from this fleet being used to replace trains during occupations.   

The network

If routes are well used and serves high social needs areas and/or busy destinations, there's a good case to be throwing more 7 day service at them especially if this doesn't trigger an increase in the peak bus requirement. Such an upgrade delivers benefits sooner without having to wait for ponderous network review or public consultation processes.

On the other hand you would not want to be spending big on  dysfunctional routes with poor patronage potential. Also the depot's routes is subject to the ambitious northern suburbs bus network review announced last year.  

With that in mind I'll run through the pros and cons of each of the depot's six routes and prospects for improvement. 

Route 526 Coburg - Reservoir (west)
Includes some unique catchment with housing replacing industry. But has weak northern terminus.  Shorter term: Minimum standards upgrade including 7 day service and longer hours.
Longer term: Potentially extend east to Northland to provide strong terminus in conjunction with reform to routes like 553, 558 and 567. More here and here

Route 527 Gowrie - Northland
Serves a major east-west corridor but part of the route overlaps with 903 orbital. Weak western terminus at Gowrie.
Shorter term: Boost Sunday service to 20 min and add some earlier am trips. 
Longer term: Potentially split route at Coburg with western half being extended north to Broadmeadows for a stronger terminus. Eastern half merged into a frequent 904 Megabus operating between Heidelberg, Northland, Preston and Coburg. This may require shared running arrangements with another operator such as successfully operates on Route 900. 

Route 548 La Trobe Uni - Kew
A potentially useful north-south route bus with a weak southern terminus stopping short of a station. Also complex midday reversing pattern in Springthorpe Estate. 
Shorter term: Minimum standards upgrade including 7 day service and longer hours.
Longer term: Make more direct with Springthorpe Estate having its own route. Extend south to at least the Ringwood train line and potentially Caulfield Station. Upgrade frequency and operating hours further to provide a SmartBus style service. This may require shared running arrangements with another operator such as successfully operates on Route 900. 

Route 549 Northland - Ivanhoe
Little unique coverage but it provides a shopping centre and train station connector. Gets average usage for a bus route in Melbourne with some high needs demographics.  
Shorter term: Minimum standards upgrade including 7 day service and longer hours.

Route 550 Northland - La Trobe Uni
Little unique coverage but provides a university and shopping centre connector. Gets slightly below average usage for a bus route in Melbourne. 
Longer term: Considering amalgamating with 551 to provide an east-west route in conjunction with other reforms that would provide a more frequent La Trobe - Heidelberg connection (eg 550 concept or extended 903 and 904 concept).  

Route 551 Heidelberg - La Trobe Uni
A mix of local coverage and university feeder from Heidelberg. Has higher than average usage on the weekdays it runs, indicating demand as a university feeder, especially for people coming off the 903 bus. 
Longer term: Consider operating to Northland via Heidelberg West replacing 550 to form an east-west route. Heidelberg - La Trobe connection made more frequent and direct as part of an upgraded/straightened 550 route or extended 903 (see above).  


Conclusion

Ivanhoe depot may have the latest state-of-the-art electric buses but the routes and timetables they run on are anything but. For example Route 527 have very high patronage potential that is stymied by a weak terminus or competition from duplicative routes. Both 548 and 551 unsuccessfully try to combine local coverage and university feeder type roles, with inconsistent running and a weak terminus also afflicting the 548. These factors make network reform for routes served by the depot highly desirable. 

Notwithstanding that, there are some potential shorter term quick wins that would deliver 7 day service on routes like 526, 548 and 549 and improved Sunday service on the 527. These would be a start to make the network more useful and lead to better utilised electric buses. 

See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items  here

1 comment:

Tramologist said...

A lot of route 527 trips between Preston Station and Northland are at the same time as route 903. Frequency increase and staggering the trip timing with route 903 would increase patronage.