State government ministers, MPs and spokespeople have not been backward in claiming benefits of the Big Build program of major transport projects.
Removed level crossings, it is often said, could reduce accidents, increase reliability and allow more trains to run. The renewal of old assets, provided the new ones were more reliable, was another potential benefit. The railways would never have got funding to rebuild so many stations so quickly on their own but did so as the rail component of what was substantially a road project.
And the Metro Tunnel promised benefits not only for precincts with new rail coverage but also the rest of the network, including added capacity to reduce crowding, enabling higher frequency and improved reliability.
At Sunday's Webster Street level crossing removal community celebration in Dandenong deputy Premier (and former Transport Minister) Gabrielle Williams said that Big Build projects transformed the Pakenham and Cranbourne lines from being the least to the most reliable on the network. Those lines are particularly relevant as they are now level crossing free and run through the Metro Tunnel.
Delivery and Punctuality - overall
Because they were cited by the Deputy Premier, they are easy to quantify and numbers are available, let's test some of the state benefits by looking at Metro service delivery and punctuality. I did this by looking at performance data from the reporting website at: https://www.vic.gov.au/public-transport-monthly-performance
I compared the last twelve months (September 2025 to August 2026) with data from twelve years prior (September 2013 to August 2014). That is before the election of the Andrews government and thus its Big Build program.
Because rail network usage and performance is seasonal I made month for month comparisons to remove this as a potential error. The notable timetable changes in 2025-2026 include:
* November 30 2025 'Summer Start" that added a limited Metro Tunnel service to the existing timetable
* February 1 2026 "Big Switch" that marked the full commencement of the Metro Tunnel and the Frankston line's return to the City Loop
* August 23 2026 timetable that created the Werribee/ Williamstown/ Sandringham cross-city group and boosted services on all four northern suburbs Metro lines.
Cancellations and late running are caused by several different factors. Only some are attributable to infrastructure faults and level crossing incidents. But given the scale of level crossing removals done in 12 years it might be possible that the works have contributed to improved performance.
The first step was to do a 12 month average across all lines.
Delivery Sept 2013 - Aug 2014 99.0%
Delivery Sept 2025 - Aug 2026 99.0%
Punctuality Sept 2013 - Aug 2014 93.1%
Punctuality Sept 2025 - Aug 2026 94.3%
Delivery (ie proportion of cancellations) was stable. But there was a 1.2% improvement in punctuality. Without further information, such as incident numbers as is collected internally, it is not possible to attribute this to level crossing removals or infrastructure renewal.
However the potential importance of other factors was notable from the Sandringham punctuality improvement of 1.7% since that line has had the least change to infrastructure with no level crossing removals.
Delivery and Punctuality - by line
The 0% average change in service delivery between 2014 and 2026 masks big changes on certain lines. The biggest improvers were the Frankston, Sandringham, Cranbourne and Craigieburn lines. The biggest falls in delivery were on the Mernda and oddly (due to the relationship with Cranbourne) Pakenham. (click graph for better view)
As for punctuality, Cranbourne and Pakenham stand out as the big improvers. Not so much due to the Metro Tunnel (which was in full service for only seven of the last twelve months) but because both lines were poor performers in 2014. So much so that your Pakenham or Cranbourne train (88 to 89% on time) was almost twice as likely to be late as the network average (93%) and three to four times more likely to be late than reliable lines like Glen Waverley and Sandringham. That gap had closed to such an extent that both Pakenham and Cranbourne were above the network average, whether pre or post Metro Tunnel.
Lines associated with the cross-city and northern groups, such as Frankston, Sunbury and Werribee had improvements of around 1%.
The main rises in tardiness were on the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups, with punctuality down by about 1%.
Lines associated with the cross-city and northern groups, such as Frankston, Sunbury and Werribee had improvements of around 1%.
The main rises in tardiness were on the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups, with punctuality down by about 1%.
What about the Metro Tunnel?
I tried looking at Metro Tunnel and related performance back in March when we only had February's data. With seven months data it's worth a revisit.
The last year includes 3 months with no Metro Tunnel service, 2 months with existing timetables plus limited Metro Tunnel service and 7 months with full Metro Tunnel service. Have delivery and punctuality on the affected lines changed before and after the February 1 2026 "Big Switch"?
Sunbury line
Pakenham line
Cranbourne line
Craigieburn line
Upfield line
The results show that the three Metro Tunnel lines (Sunbury, Pakenham and Cranbourne) had fewer cancellations when their trains ran via the City Loop than when they were joined via the Metro Tunnel. In contrast the Craigieburn and Upfield lines (which remained in the Loop) improved or retained their previous delivery performance. While not noted above, the Frankston and Werribee lines also improved.
Sunbury line
The last year includes 3 months with no Metro Tunnel service, 2 months with existing timetables plus limited Metro Tunnel service and 7 months with full Metro Tunnel service. Have delivery and punctuality on the affected lines changed before and after the February 1 2026 "Big Switch"?
Sunbury line
Delivery Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 99.2%
Delivery Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 98.5%
Pakenham line
Delivery Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 98.5%
Delivery Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 98.2%
Cranbourne line
Delivery Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 99.4%
Delivery Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 98.6%
Craigieburn line
Delivery Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 98.8%
Delivery Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 99.2%
Upfield line
Delivery Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 99.4%
Delivery Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 99.4%
The results show that the three Metro Tunnel lines (Sunbury, Pakenham and Cranbourne) had fewer cancellations when their trains ran via the City Loop than when they were joined via the Metro Tunnel. In contrast the Craigieburn and Upfield lines (which remained in the Loop) improved or retained their previous delivery performance. While not noted above, the Frankston and Werribee lines also improved.
Sunbury line
Punctuality Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 91%
Punctuality Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 93.3%
Pakenham line
Pakenham line
Punctuality Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 95.6%
Punctuality Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 93.8%
Punctuality Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 96.2%
Punctuality Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 94.9%
Craigieburn line
Punctuality Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 90.4%
Punctuality Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 91.4%
Upfield line
Punctuality Sep 2025 - Jan 2026 94.6%
Punctuality Feb 2026 - Aug 2026 95.2%
Sunbury had a significant rise, accentuated by the poor January 2026 (88%) result. Pakenham and Cranbourne had a deterioration. It would seem that the longer the line the more there is to go wrong, and adding 40 kilometres of Sunbury has increased the risk of delays.
Craigieburn and Upfield recorded improved punctuality. As did Frankston, Werribee and Williamstown. Though it should be noted that until 23 August 2026 the latter two had a stop-gap timetable terminating at Flinders Street until works could be completed to join them to Sandringham to restore the cross-city group.
It should be noted that all numbers are as reported. These reports exclude planned disruptions due to work. Actual customer experiences will vary as bus replacements due to works are common on some lines, particularly at nights and weekends. The time costs of these disruptions are not evenly borne; there would be some regular weekend or evening travellers for whom almost no subsequent improvement could offset the extra time spent waiting or travelling on replacement buses over many years.
Cross-city restoration
For much of the last year Sandringham, Werribee, Williamstown and Laverton trains terminated at Flinders Street to allow for project works in the west. The 23 August timetable connected these to form a cross-city group similar to what ran involving the Frankston line.
The August performance results included just nine days of this timetable. Thus the new pattern would have affected less than one-third of the month's performance.
Notwithstanding this limited effect, punctuality for Werribee and Sandringham fell by about 2% between July and August 2026.
Notwithstanding this limited effect, punctuality for Werribee and Sandringham fell by about 2% between July and August 2026.
It is too early to say whether this fall is a blip or a problem inherent to through-running a long line similar to described above for Sunbury - East Pakenham/Cranbourne. We'll have a better idea of this later in the year/early next year after sufficient data is available.
Summary
On most lines Metro trains are more punctual today than they were 12 years ago. However without further information it is not possible to attribute this improvement to infrastructure works such as level crossing removals or non-infrastructure factors. The Sandringham line example shows that a line can improve performance by more than the network average without large infrastructure works.
The Metro Tunnel appears to have delivered performance improvements for non-Metro Tunnel lines such as Craigieburn and Upfield. This is due to these lines being isolated from the busy Sunbury line. However it should be noted that both these lines are still operating at half the off-peak frequency envisaged in the Day One timetable of the Metro Tunnel Business Case.
Lines in the Metro Tunnel, conversely have had (mostly) off-peak frequency boosts but the Cranbourne and Pakenham lines have suffered more cancellations and more delays under the Metro Tunnel than when they ran through the City Loop.
This is a concern since one of the benefits of Automatic Train Control is faster recovery from delays due to its allowance of closer train spacing. Hopefully these systems are still in the refinement so that, together with targeted maintenance and operations culture improvement, they can fully offset the reliability challenges arising from the through running of long lines.
Summary
On most lines Metro trains are more punctual today than they were 12 years ago. However without further information it is not possible to attribute this improvement to infrastructure works such as level crossing removals or non-infrastructure factors. The Sandringham line example shows that a line can improve performance by more than the network average without large infrastructure works.
The Metro Tunnel appears to have delivered performance improvements for non-Metro Tunnel lines such as Craigieburn and Upfield. This is due to these lines being isolated from the busy Sunbury line. However it should be noted that both these lines are still operating at half the off-peak frequency envisaged in the Day One timetable of the Metro Tunnel Business Case.
Lines in the Metro Tunnel, conversely have had (mostly) off-peak frequency boosts but the Cranbourne and Pakenham lines have suffered more cancellations and more delays under the Metro Tunnel than when they ran through the City Loop.
This is a concern since one of the benefits of Automatic Train Control is faster recovery from delays due to its allowance of closer train spacing. Hopefully these systems are still in the refinement so that, together with targeted maintenance and operations culture improvement, they can fully offset the reliability challenges arising from the through running of long lines.
See other Timetable Tuesday items here
No comments:
Post a Comment