Bigger Cheaper Sooner: A look at Project AERIAL

Melbourne's growth shows no sign of slowing. We're adding something like 100 000 residents per year. And, despite CBD area densification, most newcomers are settling in the outer suburbs.

Before last election the state government announced the ambitious Suburban Rail Loop (SRL). It's part of Victoria's Big Build. It won't be complete until 2050.  It serves some major centres but being largely a middle-suburb project it doesn't go very near the areas experiencing the fastest population growth. Alan Davies called it a mistake. The Grattan Institute isn't a fan either, saying it won't serve many jobs.

Still, the public seems to like it. And objectors could be ignoring transfomative land uses that may make SRL more viable. However, there remain concerns that it is very long term, and a more immediate transport solution is required for the critical 2026 to 2050 period.

How do we best meet these mobility challenges? Implementation of more frequent, consistent and reliable 'greenfields' train timetables as proposed in the 2013 Network Development Plan - Metropolitan Rail has stalled.  Even running Sunday morning trains better than every 40 minutes seems impossible. Won't the Metro Rail Tunnel help? We can't really be sure. For example there's been no public indication that trains to busy stations like Sunshine and Watergardens will operate better than the current 20 minute daytime frequency. And no one knows if there's a recent Victorian Transport Plan, despite it being required by the Transport Integration Act 2010.

Fortunately it's not all doom and gloom. Someone's been thinking. People are on the case. We can sleep well. Crack teams of consultants and graphic designers sworn to secrecy and off department books, have been assembled to plan a bigger, cheaper and sooner orbital transport system.

Only a few know these planning units exist. In a departure from normal practice, which is to centralise high level planning work in the CBD, these teams are housed in surplus asbestos-roofed C-grade offices about 30 or 40 kilometres from the city.

With dispersed business units in the west, north, east and south, each team has only scant 'need to know' inkling of what the others do. As the management manual says, "Site separation safeguards secrecy".

Recruitment experts say that suburban worksites attract more TAFE graduates who tend to be more grounded and less likely to embark on flights of fancy compared to inner-city uni leavers. Jobs for TAFE graduates is important for the success of the premier's Free TAFE policy.  And given the tendency for tongues to wag at cafes, 'deep in Zone 2' locations lessen the risk of leaks to mostly Zone 1-based journalists, lawyers and political staffers.

However there are always exceptions. Late Friday afternoon I was fortunate to receive a briefing on plans for a project that will change the way people and freight get around Melbourne. But it was not until this morning that I've been able to share the exciting news.

It's called Project AERIAL. The Automated Electric Rapid Inter Area Loop. This electrically-powered orbital system will transform public and freight transport around outer Melbourne.

Starting at Hastings AERIAL will initially serve Cranbourne, Narre Warren, Dandenong North, the Eastlink corridor, Heatherdale, South Morang, Wollert, Donnybrook, Mickelham, Broadmeadows and Melbourne Airport. Requiring a minimum of new infrastructure, completion is expected by 2030. Stage Two extensions to Clyde North, Officer/Pakenham and Calder Park/Eynesbury will open two years later. A future Stage Three (not shown below) may run between Lilydale and Broadmeadows via Chirnside Park, Templestowe, Watsonia, Keon Park and Jacana.

Fifteen intermodal interchange points will provide strategic connections with local bus and train services. A high-value freight bridge between Melbourne Airport, the Northern Industrial Growth Zone, the Outer South East Industrial Growth Zone and a future expanded commercial port at Hastings is also part of the AERIAL project. Large freight users will be able to transport their own containers via AERIAL, with a competitive 60 minute travel time from Melbourne Airport to Hastings Port. Also, wineries in the Yarra Valley will be able to get their produce to either within thirty minutes, with convenient terminals in Warrandyte and Heatherdale.

AERIAL is a heartwarming story of Aussie innovation. It came when the (now) project director was at Lynbrook looking across fields of high tension power pylons. They noticed that the gaps in pylons were so big that you could drive a bus through them. And with power so close at hand it made sense that it was an electric bus. Taking a tip from overhead cable cars it was thought better to suspend driverless motorised carriages on central overhead cables supported from the pylons.

The final piece in the puzzle came when it was realised that Melbourne already had a network of high tension power pylons that could shape an orbital transport system. While pylons differ in size and shape, the cost of replacing unsuitable ones would still likely be less than alternatives including tunnelling or land resumption for new railways. And in the time it would take for AERIAL to be built and there was a swing to site-generated solar energy, AERIAL would provide a new market for electricity generating companies and income from the air rights of transmission line corridors and potentially also commuter parking. Public Private Pylon Partnerships (PPPPs) are truly a wonderful example of joined up thinking to simultaneously solve urban transport and energy problems.

How does AERIAL tie in with other transport modes to create a real network? The blue dots on the map are the AERIAL intermodal interchange points to existing or proposed train and bus services. Jumbo sized 100 person lifts will provide fast access to the ground.

AERIAL will add more Park and Ride capacity to the network near where people live, with 2000 spots at each station. This is expensive to do at existing train stations because of competition from surrounding high value land uses. In contrast, because no one wants to live near them, there is much less competition for space under transmission lines corridors.  Large areas under them will be turned over to free parking. A shared cycle scheme, using reconditioned O-bikes fished from the Yarra, will allow people to park up to 2km away from each AERIAL station. And, to assist car electrification, low-tariff electric vehicle charging stations will be provided. This is a win for electricity distributors because the closer the point of power consumption is to the high tension distribution network the lower will be losses caused by transmission line resistance and transformer inefficiencies. 

What about AERIAL's user experience? Yesterday I messaged Chip Monk, AERIAL's Curator User Response Sensing Experiences. Chip said that the view from the recently opened Dandenong line "Sky Rail" was nothing compared to what AERIAL riders will get. And, because it's a driverless system so high that advertising can't be read from cars stuck on the roads below, front, rear and floor windows will be left clear.

He added that user expectations had changed. These had influenced AERIAL's design. In particular views from AERIAL will be as good as on wide-screen plasma TVs. People will board AERIAL just for the ride. New stations at the Yarra River near Warrandyte and in the Churchill National Park are expected to contribute weekend patronage. And each year AERIAL will bring White Night festivities to the suburbs, with spectacular performance displays of self-powering flourescent luminaires to greet travelling passengers.

A concern people might have about AERIAL is health. It's well-known that houses near high tension power lines sell for less. And note the outcry when it is proposed that a school be built near pylons. This has been taken care of according to Mr Monk. Exposure to electromagnetic fields is less than people would get from holding their mobile phone close up. Besides the vehicles are made of metal to provide shielding by forming a scary sounding but protective thing called a Faraday Cage.

All-up, AERIAL looks an elegant solution to our transport problems. There's complete grade separation with no costly tunnelling. Use is made of (mostly) existing infrastructure, and, except in minor cases, no land acquisition is required. The route alignment will bring service to areas where it was previously sparse. Integration with existing trains and buses at strategic nodes is possible.  And, as discussed, there's massive opportunity for park and ride due to smart use of surplus land that no one would want for anything else.

Want to know more? 

Book a free tour of the AERIAL Discovery Centre to see what Bigger Cheaper Sooner looks like.  Make it a family day with virtual AERIAL SkyRides available for everyone.

A full complement of community liaison workers, media advisers, user experience curators, and Public Interface Space Stakeholder Officers will be on hand for your queries about this formerly hush-hush project. 

Numbers are limited so register online now. It's open from 7am, this morning only, closing at noon.

Can't make it? Ask below and I'll try to answer. 

You might enjoy these well-regarded books on transport topics

Better Buses, Better Cities: How to Plan, Run, and Win the Fight for Effective Transit Steven Higashide NEW!

The Public City: Essays in honour of Paul Mees Gleeson & Beza

A Political Economy of Access: Infrastructure, Networks, Cities, Institutions (Access Quintet Book 4) David Levinson

Human Transit: How Clearer Thinking about Public Transit Can Enrich Our Communities and Our Lives Jarrett Walker

Transport for Suburbia: Beyond the Automobile Age Paul Mees

(Sales links: I get a small commission if you buy via the above - no extra cost to you)

More network pruning - how have we done since 2010?

Two weeks ago I asked whether we could make our bus network more frequent and efficient by pruning bus routes in areas where they overlap or provide service beyond what an area needs.

It was only later that I unearthed a very similar post from November 2010. It was written just before a state election defeat for Labor and victory for the Liberal/National coalition. Discontent with the increasingly crowded and unreliable rail network and the troubled myki ticketing system contributed to Labor's loss. However the Coalition lasted just a single term with Labor returning in 2014. 

Background

Philosophically, Liberals like low taxes, smaller government, economic efficiency, private provision and self-help. Urban Liberals like Malcolm Turnbull and Gladys Berejiklian value public transport as a utility to be run efficiently with maximum patronage. Labor followers, driven by 'fairness', often stress the social importance of  services governments fund. They accept high per-capita subsidies for disadvantaged groups. Buses, in particular, are seen as community services. 

National Party supporters lean towards the Labor view for services in their own rural constituencies, especially if, like country rail upgrades, they can be sold as promoting regional development. If Liberals and Nationals are too far apart then coalitions (often required to govern) can split. Whereas if they are seen as too close then rural National voters may swing to protectionist minor parties or local independents. We saw this in 1999 when a rural backlash against the 'city-centric' Kennett government (which closed country hospitals, schools and railways) ushered in more than a decade of Labor rule, initially assisted by rural independents.

Before losing office in 2010, state Labor had just rolled out the impressive Smartbus orbital and DART services. However these new routes were often layered over the top of existing unchanged routes. This kept things sweet for users of existing routes but was horribly inefficient. It was this duplication, along with the unnecessary operation of SmartBus through sparsely populated areas, that kept SmartBus frequency lower than it should have been, especially on weekends. Passengers sometimes got left behind on busier sections of SmartBus, despite spare buses sitting in depots.

Strengthening strong routes of demonstrated high patronage is something that efficiency-minded Coalition governments can embrace. Especially with rail modes most costs are fixed. Up to the point where more rolling stock needs to be purchased, adding services is relatively cheap, just requiring some extra operational expenditure. It may even be possible to do this in a cost neutral fashion if offsetting cost savings can be found.

While it was most known for service reductions elsewhere, the Kennett goverment actually increased off-peak rail frequencies on the Dandenong and Frankston lines from 20 to 15 minutes. Later it greatly boosted daytime Sunday train and tram frequencies network wide. This century's Baillieu/Napthine Coalition government rolled out 10 minute daytime frequencies on busy rail lines in the south and east. And the recently re-elected NSW Coalition government introduced 7 day 15 minute train frequencies to most stations in Sydney.

Recent history of bus service planning

Getting back to Melbourne and buses, the Baillieu government signed a cut-price bus franchise contract with Transdev in 2013, taking over from National Bus and Melbourne Bus Link. Transdev routes include Melbourne's busiest and most frequent bus routes including DART (Doncaster Area) and orbital SmartBuses. Transdev's contract featured an obligation to introduce a more efficient 'greenfields' bus network.

Transdev simplified some of its routes in 2014. However the major greenfield changes, including splitting the orbitals and increasing frequency on busy portions on them, were to happen in April 2015. There was little public consultation and the network included service cuts on other busy routes. Meanwhile Labor had regained office and vetoed the 2015 network. Things turned from bad to worse with a major fleet maintenance crisis leading to Transdev Melbourne's contract extension being cut short.

While the Transdev network had good features, the cuts to busy routes in areas like Footscray were poorly conceived. On balance the minister was right to reject them. Even from a pure efficiency point of view it didn't completely make sense as service would have remained high in some low-patronage areas. And the single operator based approach to service planning would not have cut the duplication necessary to deliver an efficient network. Routes run by different operators would still have overlapped and timetable changes would have occurred independently rather than in concert. 

There was more success with non-Transdev routes planned by PTV. Reformed bus networks were introduced to Point Cook in 2013, Brimbank in 2014, Geelong and Wyndham in 2015, and Epping North, Plenty Valley and Cranbourne in 2016. Existing bus routes were deleted or radically straightened, coverage was increased and timetables scheduled to match trains.  Often there was a two tier network, with more frequent corridors operating every 20 minutes and local routes on a 40 minute frequency. This gave more people access to a direct bus route operating every 20 minutes or better.

Most of the above was planned under the 2010 - 2014 coalition government. While the 2014 - 2018  Labor government added bus service kilometres, it wasn't very interested in comprehensive network reform despite its wider benefits. This may have been driven by fear since the government had only a slim parliamentary majority in 2014 with many marginal seats. In such an environment it might have been thought politically unwise to upset 1000 passengers with a revised bus network even if it meant denying service improvements to 10 000 others.

Not making public transport as useful as it can be costs patronage. We've seen this in Melbourne with sluggish bus usage rates. PTV measures usage but appears to lack a strong patronage goal and could do better at network marketing. Last year Labor was re-elected with an increased majority. There is also a new transport minister. It's too early to know whether these events will renew government interest in good bus network planning.  

Review

So much for the context. Let's review my 2010 'dead wood' route list to see what, if any, has been pruned or reformed.

219 (portion): Part west of Sunshine duplicates 903. A weekend variation serves areas covered by Route 471.

* Extension remains but in simpler 7-day form. Weekend variation removed. 

246 (Latrobe Uni extension): Overlaps with other routes between Clifton Hill and Latrobe Uni.

* Extension deleted. 

280/282 (portion): A local route that duplicates the 901 SmartBus along a low-density residential area (Foote St/Reynolds Rd Templestowe).

* No change. 

286 (entire route): Largely duplicated by two SmartBus routes (901 and 906) along Blackburn Rd

* Route deleted. Issues with Route 906 peak crowding. 

293 (part): Duplicated by new SmartBus Route between Doncaster Shoppingtown and Eltham (Main Rd roundabout).

* No change.

295: Duplicates 903 along Station St between Box Hill and Doncaster Shoppingtown.
* Extension deleted.

340/350: Overlaps with 250 between Ivanhoe and Latrobe Uni.
* Simplified to operate as 350 only. Peak service only. 

445 (part route): Duplicates other routes between Werribee Plaza and Hoppers Crossing Station. Truncation could allow removal of stopping restrictions (including to a local shopping centre) which lessen legibility.

* Reformed in 2014. Replaced by more frequent and direct services in 2015 Wyndham network.

478/479 (part route): Duplicates Route 477 and tram between Moonee Ponds and Airport West.

* Route shortened to remove duplication. Frequency increased. 

479 (City – Moonee Ponds portion): A weekend extension that duplicated by a frequent tram service.

* Weekend extension removed. 

483 (entire route): Freeway service for Sunbury. Will become less necessary after rail electrification.

* No change. 

500 (entire route): Duplicates 901 between Broadmeadows and Melbourne Airport. Duplicates 479 between Melbourne Airport and Sunbury.

* Route deleted.

544 (part route): Duplicates 901 between Roxburgh Park and Broadmeadows
* Route shortened to start at Roxburgh Park.

563 (part route): Duplicates tram along a large section of Plenty Rd and 901 between Greensborough & Plenty Valley SC

* Route deleted in network reform. New route 382 retains substantial overlap with tram. 

623 (part route): Duplicates 626 and 900 between Chadstone SC and Carnegie. Scope for rerouting along Neerim Rd to replace portion of 624.

* No change. 

673 (entire route): An hourly service entirely duplicated by parallel longer routes

* No change.

691 (part route): Monash Uni extension – duplicates direct high-service 900 SmartBus

* Extension deleted. 

694 (entire route): Largely parallels 663 the extended 688 for all but a few stops.
* No change. 

745 (entire route): Four occasional routes with very low patronage

* No change. 

777 (entire route): A short route with few services and trip generators

* No change. 

Results

Overlap deleted: 9/20 (45%)

Overlap modified: 3/20 (15%)

No change: 8/20 (40%)

Conclusion

Bus reform can happen. 45% of routes identified as being duplicative were removed within 10  years. A further 15% were modified in local area network reviews. Not as high as it could be but still encouraging. Opportunities remain to seek efficiencies with the remaining 40%. And that excludes any new or uncommented on overlaps such as discussed here.

You might enjoy these well-regarded books on transport topics

Better Buses, Better Cities: How to Plan, Run, and Win the Fight for Effective Transit Steven Higashide NEW!

The Public City: Essays in honour of Paul Mees Gleeson & Beza

A Political Economy of Access: Infrastructure, Networks, Cities, Institutions (Access Quintet Book 4) David Levinson

Human Transit: How Clearer Thinking about Public Transit Can Enrich Our Communities and Our Lives Jarrett Walker

Transport for Suburbia: Beyond the Automobile Age Paul Mees

(Sales links: I get a small commission if you buy via the above - no extra cost to you)

Timetable Tuesday #16: Route 410 - Hourly via Churchill

The most important factor that determines the usefulness of a public transport service is not whether it's a train, tram or bus but its timetable, route and stops.

The Footscray / Sunshine area includes some of Melbourne’s busiest bus routes. This is due to several factors.  The most important of these include (i) a long history of frequent 7 day bus service (itself a legacy of the Footscray tram network and subsequent government operation), (ii) grid streets with fairly high residential densities, (iii) favourable demographics including low car ownership and (iv) trains that only skirt the edge of the residential area and operate less frequently than buses.

Four east-west routes run between Sunshine and Footscray.  Three (216, 219, 220) are ex-government routes extending to Melbourne CBD until late at night Monday to Sunday (the latter a rarity that not even SmartBus routes feature).  The other, route 410, is a privately-operated service terminating at Footscray.  This is what we will feature today. 

Compared to some others featured, route 410 is fairly simple. Its only complexity is the Churchill Av deviation showed in the dotted line above.  This deviation runs hourly during the day, Monday to Saturday. Because it overlaps Route 408, it does not add coverage. However it provides Churchill Av with an occasional direct service to Footscray Hospital and station.

You can see how 410 fits in with other routes on the map below.  Only about one-third of it offers unique coverage. Parts overlap Route 220 along Ballarat Rd.  The overlap is due to more routes than parallel through roads existing in the section west of Duke St (216/219, 220, 408, 410 via Ballarat, Churchill, South).  

What about Route 410’s timetable? Its operating hours broadly reflect the minimum service standards introduced about a decade ago.  But more than most other routes frequencies abruptly vary throughout the day and over the week.  This is a consequence of the hourly minimum standard being applied to a route that, when it ran, operated more frequently.  In contrast the 200-series routes have longer operating hours, more even frequencies and no deviations.

The weekday timetable is below. 410’s off-peak daytime headway is 15 minutes. This means it does not harmonise with trains, which at Sunshine, operate every 20 minutes.  Footscray receives many more trains, with these operating on 10 and 20 minute patterns.  Peak frequency is approximately every 12 or 13 minutes.  Weeknight frequencies drop smoothly from 15 to 20 to 30 minutes.

The hourly Churchill Avenue deviation operates between approximately 10 and 6pm.  This causes 410 frequencies on part of Ballarat Rd to be an uneven 15-30-15 minute pattern as the ‘missing’ bus is serving Churchill Avenue instead.  While some might regard 15 minutes as a turn-up-and-go frequency, this service level does not apply along the whole route due to the deviation.  Consequently if one wanted to make a frequent network map only part of the route would be eligible for inclusion.  

Saturday daytime frequencies are an even 20 minutes. This harmonises with Saturday train frequencies (every 20 minutes on all lines).  The hourly Churchill Avenue deviation means that 410 trips on Ballarat Rd follow a 20-40-20 minute pattern.  

Unlike on weeknights, route 410 on Saturdays has no smooth frequency transition in the early evening. Instead it drops abruptly from 20 to 60 minutes before 7pm.  While demand drops at night compared to during the day, it is unlikely that it has fallen by so much in such a sort amount of time.  

Sunday service is a flat 60 minute frequency, ie the minimum standard.  The Sunday service is one-quarter the weekday service and one-third the service on Saturday.  410’s Sunday cut is a sharper cut than SmartBuses (half as frequent on weekends as weekdays) and local trains (mostly 20 minute frequency 7 days).  As mentioned before this reduction is likely because it is the application of the minimum standard to a more frequent Monday – Saturday route that did not previously operate on Sundays. 

What would you do with the 410? Should the hourly Churchill Av deviation be scrapped to simplify the route? Or would it be better if all trips were run via Churchill Av to provide a connection to Footscray? Is there scope to merge 410 with other east-west routes in the Braybrook/Sunshine area and upgrade frequencies on each to 10 minutes to provide turn-up-and-go service?  Or would you retain 410 as is given it is quite popular?  And if the latter do you consider that the hourly Saturday evening and Sunday frequency fairly reflects demand given the route’s Monday – Saturday daytime service?

See other Timetable Tuesday items here