UN 150: Keilor East and Melbourne Airport transport - What now?

Airport rail's been put off so what opportunities exist now for better transport for Keilor East and Melbourne Airport for the next decade? Keep reading! 

Introduction

Few parts of Melbourne's inner 15km ring are distant from trains or trams. Largely industrial Laverton North, residential Doncaster and mixed use Keilor East are the main exceptions. All have had train lines proposed, promised or deferred at various times. Keilor East is most topical right now as it's caught up in Melbourne Airport Rail's deferral.

Today I'll describe a cost-effective multi-directional network that could deliver vastly better mobility for Keilor East and access to Melbourne Airport now for the ten or so years until Airport Rail arrives. 

Want to cut to the chase? Scroll 50 - 80% down for the specifics and maps.   

Keilor East and station proposals - background

Keilor East is one of those then fringe/now middle-ring areas conceived when it was still thought necessary that new subdivisions should have trains or trams. But it developed when the rail network was run down by WWII (so was not expanding) and more people were getting cars. Hence Keilor East only ended up with private buses, though nearby freeway-ringed Airport West is the terminus of one of Melbourne's longest tram routes.  

A station at Keilor East has been part of various airport rail schemes including the most recent iteration.  It would have many advantages including improved local access to the CBD, better load balancing between railway lines feeding Sunshine, and a better terminus for local bus routes. More on all that here. 

The City of Moonee Valley campaigned hard for Keilor East when this government revived the idea of an airport rail following a promise of part federal funding. They thought they won when the project's scope was expanded to include a station in Keilor East before the 2022 state election. However the government announced a delay of airport rail earlier this week. Council said it was shocked by media reports of the project's deferral and has called on the government to continue works around the station site. 

Delivering major infrastructure had been the centrepiece of the Andrews government's eight years in office. The scale of its program had wowed observers and won votes. However the demand it created pushed up materials and skilled labour costs. And rising interest rates have made what were once affordable debts expensive to service. Hence the pre-budget talk of cuts to the public service and scaling back or deferment of major projects.

While this might be financially prudent, it's still cold comfort for the people of Keilor East who have been lumbered with slow and infrequent buses for years. Right now nobody would be feeling the pressure more than Public Transport Minister Carroll whose state seat of Niddrie includes the Keilor East station site.  And Melbourne Airport is possibly second only to Rowville in the number of transport schemes proposed only to be abandoned or put off. 

Changed circumstances mean it's ripe to rethink the order we do things if we want to deliver better transport to more people sooner and for less cost. I'll give ideas for Keilor East later. Skip to about 50% down if that's your interest. But for you policy wonks, I'll run through the capital intensive 'infrastructure first' versus 'service first' approaches to improving transport as things might be shifting. 

'Infrastructure first' versus 'service first' policy

Infrastructure first

Low interest rates, a willingness to borrow and a belief that building major projects is the best way to create jobs and win votes has caused the Andrews government to take an 'infrastructure first' approach to public transport. 

That is to spend all available money on major capital projects. Even though the amounts involved might be tens of billions, as this is a one-off capital cost this is more easily paid for (mainly through 'good debt') than a much smaller recurring amount such as would be needed to boost services. Borrowing to build isn't a bad approach for a government if its inherited debt is low, interest rates are low, the labour market is weak yet anticipated population growth is high. And politically it worked for three elections - 2014, 2018 and 2022. 

Better service may be promised but only after infrastructure is built, even though this is not always strictly needed, especially for off-peak frequency improvements. The latter is often lost in the public arena, that too frequently associates trains with peak period travel even though the most highly developed networks have good all day frequency and patronage too.  

Even worse is that service upgrades may not happen at all if infrastructure projects are done in isolation. Such examples are abundant in Melbourne, for example train timetables or bus networks not being reformed despite opportunities unlocked by new stations or removed level crossings. Thus the cynic might describe this as 'Infrastructure first, service never'. 

Service first

A 'service first' approach, in contrast, emphasises the efficient use of existing vehicles and infrastructure. Building more is a last resort, done only if the need remains after reforming operational practices, streamlining timetables, upgrading signals, adding on-road priority and simplifying bus routes. In other words, sweating the assets. Basically the guiding philosophy behind 2012's Network Development Plan - Metropolitan Rail. 

Service first tends to distribute service more evenly (often via Toronto-style frequent trains and especially buses) to a wide catchment rather than concentrating it at a few sites (like capital intensive rail projects do). The former can address a broader 'access for all' public good as opposed to the interest of landowners and developers in a few favoured pockets. 

A shortcoming of 'service first' is the wages bill from operating all day frequent service, though this is less objectionable if occupancy and modal share are high (which they tend to be). And if a government is really interested in jobs then bus driver type jobs are better as they are ongoing and stable (unlike major project construction jobs which are more cyclical though often better paid). 

Beyond a certain point labour cost inefficiencies mount if the network is too dependent on buses as opposed to higher capacity light or heavy rail that carry more passengers per driver on the key corridors. However the risk of this is probably lower in Melbourne than elsewhere due to our already large (but generally underserviced) rail network and abundant unrealised opportunities to reform bus networks and add articulated vehicles. 

Another (and possibly the most decisive) shortcomings are political and economic, even though adding service makes good sense from a network asset utilisation point of view. And it's well-known in transport planning circles that improved service frequency induces more usage, especially off-peak. 

Big builds are seen by everyone while frequent timetables are merely experienced by riders (unless it's frequent buses in bus lanes passing you on the freeway). That enhances the politics of building, even if other measures have a higher overall benefit. 

Another barrier is that borrowing for recurrent spending on frequent service is generally considered 'bad debt' and financially irresponsible as there's nothing enduring to show apart from a heap of happy (or less grumpy) passengers. Hence investing in service requires money to be raised by either spending cuts elsewhere or tax increases. Neither are politically attractive. And especially when interest rates were so low and the payments painless, building big was cheap and the government could show something concrete for its borrowing. 

Nevertheless things change. Altered budgetary circumstances might preclude large 'infrastructure first' initiatives. If there is a political need for improved transport then a judicious 'service first' approach (in the tens to low hundreds of millions per year) might be the quickest and most widely beneficial. 

Which approach in 2023?

Doing both would have been good. That's actually been the transport policy setting of the previous NSW government which presided over a large infrastructure and service program across all PT modes. The reward for this has been a big recent growth in bus and train usage. Whereas in Victoria we built infrastructure but added way less service than NSW's 48000 extra weekly trips. The result is a widening gap with Sydney's trains often twice as frequent as Melbourne's at certain times, particularly evenings.  

As skills shortages, cost inflation and rising interest rates bite it could be time's up for the 'Infrastructure first' thinking for now. It may be a lean time with less happening in the decade after 2025 than the decade before it as governments seek to control their debt before the cycle repeats. 

For a while small high BCR infrastructure and targeted 'service first' initiatives might be about the only new things that get done. And only then if there is a political desire to deliver 'quick wins' for transport in areas like Keilor East. Service does involve recurrent outlay but spending even 1% of a megaproject's capital cost each year can buy a lot of it. 

We'll know the government's direction for sure after the federal and state budgets next month. 

A 'service first' network for Keilor East and Melbourne Airport

In 2019 I described an improved bus network for Melbourne Airport as a precursor to Airport Rail. Its centrepiece was a fast and direct bus from Sunshine to Tullamarine (which I called Route 500). Because Sunshine is such a large hub with trains from Sunbury, Ballarat, Melton and Geelong and buses from closer in areas, a bus from there would greatly improve access from a wide area. 

Operating the 500 bus via Keilor East might mollify Moonee Valley residents by giving them a still efficient airport service. Indeed those with a stop within walking distance might prefer it to the train. The service would also benefit some non-airport trips, especially if it is part of a Keilor East area integrated network involving several intersecting routes. More on that later. 

Value for money is another potential benefit. Airport rail as currently proposed would likely have a Sydney or Brisbane style premium fare or surcharge. In contrast a bus option could work with standard myki fares and the $9.20 statewide fare cap, making it attractive to airport workers. 

Not having an airport rail surcharge would also benefit Keilor East residents who might find it price uncompetitive to taxis for their one-station trip to the airport. Taxis themselves have problems with drivers refusing short trips from the airport so a reliable bus could be a godsend for Keilor East locals. 

To sum up, a Sunshine - Keilor East - Melbourne Airport bus won't be as fast as airport rail but could bring forward many of its benefits. Implementation cost could be low (measurable in millions, not billions) and delivery would be relatively fast.  And with airport rail being delayed 4 years (ie likely completion in ten years) the case for an interim measure is strong.  

Has something like this been done here before? The answer is yes, particularly during the Bracks/Brumby period when capital for public transport projects was scarce but there was a higher willingness to invest in bus service. 

Examples include the 571 TrainLink bus (added before the Epping line was extended to South Morang), the well-used 900 SmartBus from Caulfield to Rowville (built in place of Rowville rail) and Doncaster's DART, supplementing the orbitals to give Manningham no less than 7 out of Melbourne's 9 SmartBus routes.  

There is no reason why Sunshine - Keilor East - Melbourne Airport cannot have a similar TrainLink style frequent bus. Benefits could be magnified, especially for Keilor East, if delivery was integrated with some wider (but still cost-effective) bus network reforms. Potential opportunities for these are set out below: 

a. Route 500 Sunshine - Keilor East - Melbourne Airport TrainLink/SmartBus

See Route 500 on the map below. It features three stops in the Keilor East area including one near the proposed Keilor East station site near Terror St (which could include some parking if desired). 

Key service attributes include (a) limited stops, (b) long operating hours including Sunday evenings, (c) SmartBus type frequencies but never more than 20 minute waits, (d) timed connectivity with trains at Sunshine (possibly the Geelong line) and (e) standard myki fares. 

Special TrainLink or SmartBus branding, real time information and more comfortable triple-length shelters could provide a user experience more like a tram. The route could also be one of the first to switch to 100% electric buses to create another point of difference. 

You could stop right there. The result would be great with half the state being able to get to Melbourne Airport for $9.20 or less and a big lift for public transport from Sunshine. 

But if you wanted to give Keilor East and surrounds an even better go for little extra money you'd do some small local reforms involving routes like 465, 476 and preferably also an extended 406. This would extend access to the 500 from termini as distant as Watergardens, Footscray and Essendon. The outcome would be transformative, with Keilor East going from being a transport 'black hole' to being highly reachable from surrounds. More on that later. 

b. Route 499 Caroline Springs - Keilor East - Airport West

That's the other route shown on the map above. It's an optional extra that brings extra connectivity benefits, linking most of the Keilors. It's basically taking the existing 478 Melbourne Airport - Airport West route but extending it to Caroline Springs via Keilor Plains Station and Taylors Rd. 

Route 499 would make many quite local trips possible on public transport for the first time with much less backtracking in the Keilor Plains Station / Keilor / Keilor East area. It's less direct than the 500 to Melbourne Airport so some passengers may wish to transfer to this at Keilor East interchange. 

Airport travel is possibly not its dominant function with the route provide a new connection from Keilor to Keilor Plains and Airport West Shoppingtown while supplementing the existing 418 from Keilor Plains to Caroline Springs. It could replace the existing 478 with the 479 remaining as a Sunbury to Melbourne Airport route. There are some overlaps with Route 469 in Airport West so the alignment of this may need to be reviewed. In any event the 469 should be split at Airport West to make it simpler as almost no one would ride it end-to-end.   

c. Cost-effective wider network enhancements 

The above network could be further enhanced with small upgrades or reforms to other local routes. These might include: 

* Route 406 SmartBus with Sunday - Thursday trips added until midnight and Sunday frequency boosted to every 20 min and extended to Keilor East interchange. Also straightened between Highpoint and Footscray in conjunction with reforms to other routes like 223 and 409 to create a 10 minute frequent 'Megabus' corridor for little money. Justified as it's already a strongly performing route whose airport connection via Route 500 would add further usage.   

* Route 407 upgraded with longer operating hours and 7 day service. Potential extension in the Keilor East area to allow for Route 406's extension. 

* Route 465 upgrade including extension of service until midnight and Sunday frequency boosted to every 20 min. This boost, along with the abovementioned 500, would facilitate a rerouted 903 SmartBus via Highpoint (replacing 468 and part of 408). This would correct an anomaly where there is no 7 day service between the Craigieburn line and Highpoint because the Blue Orbital (904) was scrapped and the Red Orbital (903) was not rerouted to compensate. 

A schematic diagram of the main Keilor East area routes discussed above is below. Thicker routes are more frequent and/or have longer operating hours. Compared to now the result is a much more connective network with less backtracking for many local trips.  

Conclusion

A revamped Keilor East bus network concept that brings forward many benefits of Airport Rail (for a fraction of the cost) has been described. Its benefits are wide, reaching almost all western and north-western suburbs. These include: 

a. Limited stop Sunshine - Keilor East - Melbourne Airport bus operating long hours with improved connectivity for Geelong, Wyndham Vale and Melton

b. New Caroline Springs - Melbourne Airport bus improving connectivity to Keilor Plains Station for Keilor and Airport West 

c. Two new SmartBuses for Highpoint Shopping Centre (406 & 903), improving connections to Essendon, Footscray, Sunshine, Keilor East and (via an easy change) Melbourne Airport. 

d. Longer operating hours and better frequencies for buses in Keilor East with three routes (406, 465 and proposed 500) operating until midnight and 407 operating 7 days. 

Thoughts on this network are appreciated and can be left below. 

Also see UN150a on better airport transport for Broadmeadows, Airport West & CBD

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