UN 157: Buses for Mickleham Rd (Melbourne's forgotten corridor)

Possibly because it's not centred on a highway or freeway as well-known as Western, Hume or Princes, the Mickleham Rd corridor is less prominent than others in many minds. It also lacks a nearby railway.

Estates are sprouting either side of it but Mickleham Rd doesn't yet have a continuous bus route along it. And the buses that do run (like the 484, 543 and to some extent the 525) are typically indirect and only run every 40 minutes most times. 

This may be partly due to the area's land use and housing. Greenvale was one of the area's first suburbs. Known for its super-sized blocks and luxurious houses with multiple garages, Greenvale is like no other suburb in Melbourne's west, including, like Toorak, homes on double or triple size lots with pools and tennis courts. 

 The modestly successful Broadmeadows migrant family who survived the brutal early 1990s recession might  have chosen Roxburgh Park for their dream home (though this area was later to degentrify). But if they continued to do well a move to Greenvale would really show their friends that they've 'made it'. 

Their lounge alone may outsize their parents home in Jacana, Coolaroo, Naples or Istanbul. And the main commute decision could be which car to drive (the only bus then being the indirect and infrequent 484). Thus all the density, income, demographics, prevalence of non-CBD employment and car ownership stats would have meant only a marginal role for public transport. 

However things have changed. The big-blocked Greenvale that we know is now not the only residential area that abuts Mickeham Rd. Go a bit further north and we see tracts of black-roofed homes on blocks  scarcely bigger than the house itself.

It looks more like Craigieburn than Greenvale. And we know that Craigieburn can generate high bus usage with many of its routes upgraded from every 40 to every 20 minutes (on weekdays) quite recently. Keep going north and there's even more estates, again catering for the more affordable end of the market. A resumption of immigration, rising interest rates and a housing crisis means that areas like these can only keep developing. 

Politics

Local MPs on this corridor include Kathleen Matthews-Ward (Broadmeadows), Iwan Waters (Greenvale) and Ros Spence (Kalkallo). The first two are parliamentary first-timers, having represented their areas only since the 2022 election. All are Labor.

Labor has historically held a tight grip on the Broadmeadows/Greenvale area, with the Liberals especially uncompetitive in diverse mostly working class northern suburbs. Labor's public transport record in the area includes worthwhile weekday bus frequency upgrades in Craigieburn and funding for a new fast bus to Donnybrook (proposed 501).

However Labor's record has been poor when it comes to adding rail services, notably on the busy Craigieburn line. Hence, despite high off-peak usage, waits for Craigieburn line trains are double those of the similar length Frankston line in the south. The Frankston line linked the state's main ribbon of politically marginal seats (a decade ago) and got a significant service boost under the 2010-2014 Coalition government including 7 day trains every 10 minutes. Labor has governed since 2014 but has not given taken-for-granted lines like Craigieburn and Mernda similar boosts. 

The electorate's drift away from the major parties is not just happening in more publicised inner 'Teal' areas. It's happening in outer suburbs too with seats in the area recorded large drops in Labor's primary vote in both the federal and state election of 2022. It's only less publicised as Labor were coming off such a high base. While a lot more results came down to preferences, Labor's primary vote was still sufficient to beat off challenges from far weaker rivals.

The Liberals (who have limited local support) historically also took Melbourne's outer north for granted, regarding it as unwinnable. Thus you didn't get the same bidding war in Melbourne's north that you might get in the marginal eastern and south-eastern seats. Hence the latter pulled further and further ahead when it came to funding for new hospitals, sporting clubs, train services, stations etc. An example from the 2023 state budget was the funding given to enhance Boronia Station (in the marginal seat of Bayswater) when on all objective evidence (including its gateway status for airport arrivals coming off the 901 bus) the long neglected Broadmeadows station has a much higher claim to improvement funding. 

Past Liberal uninterest in the north might be starting to change with local MLC Evan Mulholland taking Opposition Leader John Pesutto on multiple visits to the Greenvale area. Melbourne's middle and outer northern suburbs contain  amongst its lowest proportion of people without a religion. Christianity is particularly strong in a U around Melbourne Airport with strong Islam, Hindu and Sikh adherence east and north of there. This is important for conservative parties and candidates as they sometimes attract significant support from religious people even if their demographic profiles are otherwise more like traditional Labor voters.  

A rethought network

With the area's growth and diversifying income demographics, what public transport might have been considered acceptable for just 1980s/90s Greenvale would be very inadequate now. Hume Council is well aware of this.

Their Hume Corridor Integrated Growth Area Plan from 2015 proposes Bus Rapid Transit down Aitken Bvd. BusVic also suggested Aitken Bvd BRT between Craigieburn and Broadmeadows in 2013 but not in their 2022 state election agenda. Neither has it been a priority with the current state government. 

Mickleham Rd is parallel to Aitken Bvd but is about 2.5km to the west and further from the Craigieburn line. A major road, it's the nearest thing to a grid route in an area broken up by parks, lakes and the airport precinct. As mentioned before there has been substantial housing growth in the estates off it. 

The rough network concept below includes more frequent and direct routes along portions of both Mickleham Rd and Aitken Bvd. I've included three new routes - 520, 521 and 535. They partly overlap with existing routes that may need a rethink. More detail later. 

Route 520

A new main road route that connects Mickleham Rd to large shopping centres and stations at Broadmeadows and Craigieburn. Initially service would operate every 20 minutes 7 days per week (potentially higher in peaks) with long operating hours.

If you were to stage bus improvements here this would be the first route added. Later, as the area develops service would increase to every 10 minutes 7 days, preferably in conjunction with a similar upgrade to Craigieburn line trains.

If the government sticks to the service plan in the 2016 Metro Tunnel business case, we will get such an upgraded 10 minute service Craigieburn line operating when the Metro Tunnel opens in 2025. However there have been other developments since, eg the on and off again airport rail. And this government has a serial habit of building rail infrastructure but adding only minimal service when it opens. Hence it's a case of 'believe it when you see it' as there have not yet been official announcements on post-Metro Tunnel rail network service levels.  

Pedestrian access and connectivity to stops is a must given high traffic volumes. Also desirable would be redoing the intersection of Broadmeadows Rd and Mickleham Rd to permit easy connectivity to SmartBus routes operating to Melbourne Airport and Airport West without backtracking via Broadmeadows Station. 

Route 521

This is a local east-west connector to trains at Roxburgh Park station. Because many homes are more than 400m from Mickleham Rd it has a significant coverage role. Added to this is a commuter role given that Roxburgh Park is the nearest station to the area. 

The middle part of this route skirts Greenvale Reservoir, resulting in a lack of residential coverage. Thus it wouldn't be as frequent as other routes discussed here. It could run every 10-20 min peak and 20-40 min off-peak.  

Potential exists for it to extend east of Roxburgh Park station to connect with jobs at the Austrak Business Park and Somerton Logistics Centre. 

Route 535

A new route that could serve the portion of Mickleham Rd between Craigieburn and Donnybrook Rd, feeding stations of those names. Further south it could serve a part of Aitken Bvd and even terminate at Broadmeadows.  It would be a lower priority than the 520 with an interim option simply to boost the existing Route 525 to operate every 20 minutes 7 days with longer service hours. 

The dotted line reflects a potential Aitken Bvd option with benefits for eastern Greenvale and western Meadow Heights. The main trade-off is that it would either no longer or have a long backtrack to Roxburgh Park Station. However it would greatly increase the number of people within walking distance of a frequent service. 

The 535 could start off as a 7 day service every 20 minutes (better in peak). But as the area develops it could be boosted to operate every 10 minutes, especially when Craigieburn line rail frequencies improve and there is an electrification extension to Donnybrook or beyond. 

Conclusion

Presented is a rough bus network concept for Mickleham Rd with benefits for suburbs like Greenvale, Craigieburn, Mickleham, Yuroke and Donnybrook. I haven't discussed local routes in much detail but these may also need rerouting to minimise inefficient overlaps. Thoughts are appreciated and can be left below.   
 

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