UN 190: How are we going with bus reform?

 

Are we making progress on bus network reform? How fast is the overall health and usability of Melbourne's bus network improving? 

Back in March, when Victoria's Bus Plan turned 1000 days I did a bus network health check to gauge where we were at. That analysis found that two-thirds of Melbourne's 349 bus route had a serious timetable or route alignment problem, with about two-fifths of those having both. 

124 residential area routes did not meet minimum service standards with regards to operating hours, with 75 of those not running 7 days. Also 166 routes had serious issues such as complexity, weak termini or inefficient overlaps. 

More than seven months have since elapsed. Today the Bus Plan turns 1229 days as you can see from the count-up below.  

link to count-up Bus Plan clock

What's been the progress in this, the start of the plan's second thousand days? To find out I checked PTV's list of bus service changes and amended the health check spreadsheet I presented last time to include them. 

Some good things did happen with bus services in the last 7 months. 

But they are so few in number that you need to go to fractions of 1% to stop rounding errors being a risk when you make pie charts like below:  

Hardly a shift. In raw numbers this translates to the following (click for better view): 

The more significant changes include: 

* Number of bus routes in Melbourne rose from 349 to 351 due to new routes 475 and 501. Both routes were judged not to have serious issues so this improved the tally there as well. 

* Number of bus routes with minimum standards service or better grew by 3 from 213 to 216. Attributable to the new route 475 and extended operating hours on the 546 and 606. This growth matches the 2008 - 2024 average of 5 routes per year gaining minimum standards. It is however 90% down on the excellent 50 routes per year achieved between 2006 and 2008. 

 

* Proportion of bus routes with minimum standards increased only marginally (63.2 to 63.7%). This is because new Route 501, with its early finish, does not meet the minimum service standard of a 7 day service until 9pm. Neither does the 612, though its new Sunday service is welcome. 

* Number of bus routes operating 7 days increased from 263 to 267 (or 0.7% to reach 78.5%). Due to new 7 day growth area routes 475 and 501 commencing plus new Sunday service starting on the established area 546 and 612 routes. The 505's large frequency upgrade (to a weekday service every 20 min) also contributed to reducing the number of routes with a significant timetable issue. 

* The number of routes with serious route alignment or legibility issues fell by one to 165, attributable to the 546 gaining a consistent city end terminus (rather than alternating between Queen Vic Markets and Melbourne University). This indicates only 1 out of the 166 routes that had significant alignment issues got reform in this period - a very slow rate of progress if sustained.  

Conclusion

The record shows things are pretty sluggish in the bus service reform world right now. That's even if you apply creative licence and broaden this to include timetable upgrades on existing routes. Refranchising and electrification, both of less direct benefit to passengers, have instead attracted more official attention, with results from the former announced last month. 

Will the bus reform pace pick up in the next few months?  

Hopes were raised for routes 603, 604 and 605 on October 20 before PTV pulled the item from its website. These would have been good reforms that would have plugged some service 'black holes' and fixed 605's notoriously short operating hours and limited Sunday timetable. However 605 is still in for some rerouting via Domain Rd in coming months.    

The Route 800 7 day timetable upgrade, slated for later this year, will be a great Christmas present for much of the south-east.   

Last year's GAIC bus funding will mean some new and extended routes. Maybe a year or two off given normal time-lines. An Eynesbury bus got funding in the 2023-24 state budget so that is a near prospect. Beyond that I'd imagine that Mt Atkinson would be a front-runner, with significant political interest and a school bus service starting first term next year.  

Earlier this week the premier foreshadowed that the next GAIC round will include transport services, with announcements next year. These additions would be implemented around 2027, give or take a year.  

Scope exists for enterprising Labor MPs to include small-scale bus service upgrade requests in their budget bids for 2025. Especially given that infrastructure has been specifically excluded.   

Overall though bus reform is a long hard slog, with the Bus Plan proving the truism that it's nothing without budget funding. Indications are that growth areas will get needed catch-up coverage as mentioned above. 

But despite its cost-effectiveness and a successful start made around Deakin University, bus network reform appears as distant prospect as ever in other established areas. For example the promised Bus Reform Implementation Plan remains elusive. There have also been no outcomes from the metropolitan north, metropolitan north-east and Mildura bus reviews announced before the 2022 state election. 

Getting 7 day service funded on existing routes does however seem more alive, with examples like the 612, 766 and 800 raising hopes for more. Assuming 5 established area routes get 7 day upgrades each year (FixDandyBuses is backing 802, 804 & 814 for the 2025 budget), all 74 residential area bus routes currently without Sunday service will have it by 2039. 

Your views on whether you think this will happen before or after all tram stops are made accessible are appreciated and can be left in the comments below.  

See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here