[History] 15 years since the Metro Trains takeover

Today marks 15 years since metropolitan train operations changed from Connex to the Hong Kong-based MTR (trading in Melbourne as Metro Trains Melbourne or MTM).

My words and pictures from that first day in 2009 are here. The 2009 franchise, in particular, was controversial due to the rail network's deteriorating reliability since 2003. The widespread calls to 'sack Connex' were too loud for the government to ignore. Reliability eventually improved under MTM but not before the new more generous contract committed increased funding and the Brumby Labor government was defeated with rail services being a major issue in marginal seats.    

Keolis Downer, who operate Yarra Trams, will also be marking 15 years since they took over. However, unlike MTM their franchise will not be continuing. Instead, tomorrow they will be handing the keys over to Transdev John Holland.

This is the farewell video that Keolis Downer produced. 

The reason for the rail franchise also not finishing today was due to an extension that was given. This is to ensure continuity to bed down Metro Tunnel operations (with this starting next year). DTP will spend the next year or two working on the next franchise. 

A look inside Anzac Station

 Melbourne's Metro Tunnel is not yet open for service but I was fortunate enough to get on a tour of Anzac station on St Kilda Rd near the Shrine of Remembrance. This was offered to attendees of the Australasian Transport Research Forum conference as well as some others (like me). 

The station is still a construction site but is nearly finished. In this video I walk from the surface, down to the concourse, then down to the platforms, then back to the concourse then out again to the surface. This station will be a major interchange point with close integration between train, tram and a couple of bus routes. 

The Metro Tunnel is scheduled to open next year.

It will definitely greatly speed transport to the university and health precinct at Parkville as well as jobs and apartments around Domain. Other assured benefits include relief to crowded trams on the Swanston St corridor and increased potential to develop the Arden precinct due to its vastly improved accessibility. Improved reliability for northern group trains is likely as of the northern group only Craigieburn and Upfield lines remain in the City Loop, with busy Sunbury line trains now running via the Metro Tunnel.  

Potential wider Metro Tunnel project benefits include more services on lines like Craigieburn and Upfield (both of which have long suffered timetables that compare poorly with the all week frequent and marginal seated Frankston line) and substantial tram network reform. The latter being made possible by (a) the potential to move some routes from Swanston St to better served job-rich areas like the western part of the CBD (which is currently underserved) and (b) create short links to improve connectivity to emerging precincts just outside the Hoddle grid.

The realisation of such wider benefits (such as the business case relies on to make the project 'stack up') depends on the specifications of the timetable we'll get. These are not yet publicly known. Given the post-pandemic shift to working from home and the rise of weekend and evening CBD activity, off-peak service levels are as important as traditional weekday peak frequencies.

The Sydney Metro experience has shown this strongly with them now having a 5 min interpeak frequency. And Perth can claim a 7.5 min 7 day frequency at some of their inner stations.

Key issues for our Metro Tunnel and related timetables include:

(a) off-peak frequencies on the Metro Tunnel (a 10 min frequency is probably OK for stations like Watergardens and Dandenong but must be 5 min or better before considering significant tram reform; people won't go down to deep stations to face a 9 min wait for a one or two station trip);

(b) whether the abovementioned off-peak frequencies will apply at currently underserved times including evenings and Sunday mornings (where services have traditionally been inadequate to support major city activity and major events);

(c) the extent to which all day/all week frequency uplifts are confined to the Metro Tunnel lines or include others like Craigieburn, Sandringham and Upfield as assumed in the 2016 business case); and  

(d) the extent to which the timetable to be introduced for the Metro Tunnel sets off a process that revives the stalled 2012 Rail Network Development Plan to deliver all week 10 minute frequencies across the metropolitan rail network (starting with the very cheap to upgrade service to Ringwood and including other key lines like Mernda and Werribee). 

It is answers to questions like these that opposition MPs could have sought to get from DTP and government at the recent PAEC rather than playing 'gotchas' on train and network interoperability that was never a design intention.    

TT 196: The one time that Melbourne had good night time PT

Griping about after 7pm public transport is a very Melbourne thing. We have the population of a big city but provincial-style train timetables that concentrate service in peak times with 30 minute gaps following after dark. Sydney has around twice our evening service levels while taking public transport at night is less mainstream amongst the residents of our less populous capitals. 

But there was one brief time nearly two decades ago when we actually had quite good evening public transport. Not for our regular travel needs, mind you, but to save Melbourne the ignominy of stranding visitors and car-driving Joe Average from Middle Melbourne with infrequent trains feeding buses home that finished hours ago. That event was, in case you haven't twigged, was the 2006 Commonwealth Games (15-26 March, 2006). 

Table Talk April 2006 from the Australian Timetables Association describes the changes in detail. 

Metropolitan trains

Evening trains, then ran by Connex, operated every 20 minutes until 0100. Even excluding the later finish, that's a 50% uplift in service compared with the 30 minute evening frequency all lines then (and most today) operated. 

In addition Sunday services ran to Saturday timetables. This meant that those making an 'early' start (being defined as needing to get anywhere much before 10am) were freed from the then late starts or the still widespread in 2024 morning 40 minute frequencies. 

Capacity was built up to 6 car sets, something that is now done today as standard. Media was quoted as saying the rail network performed well during the games. 

What has happened since? Most notable is Night Network being extended from the bus-only NightRider to 24 hour Metro trains on weekends. Though only hourly they helped Sunday morning travel since previously the service started later than other capitals. Lines to Werribee, Williamstown and Frankston got Sunday morning frequency upgraded from 30-40 to 20 minutes. Evenings were also upgraded to a 20 min maximum waits. But on the rest of the network the 30 minute frequency prevails after 7pm, particularly on Saturday night which is the busiest night of the week. Hence Melbourne has evening frequencies inferior to those that ran in the mid-1970s (when we were half the current population) and even more inferior on the core section of the network in 1939.  

Metropolitan buses

Melbourne's bus network was a ramshackle affair in early 2006. Passenger information was starting to be improved under Metlink but buses still wore operator liveries and their timetables rarely connected with trains. Service levels were also sparse. A minority of routes ran Sundays and even Saturday afternoon service was limited. Very rarely could one catch a bus much after 7pm. The MOTC plan, which would significantly improve many bus routes in the next four years to 7 day minimum service standards, was still two months away. 

However the Commonwealth Games provided a short-term uplift which delivered evening frequencies and operating hours on over 50 bus routes not seen since. In addition NightRider buses were doubled from every hour to every 30 minutes. 

Below are the routes that got upgraded for the duration of the games with my comments in italics. 

• 200 City - Bulleen - Doncaster Shoppingtown Remains a long-hours route but shortened

• 216 Caroline Springs - City - Brighton Beach Split and then reformed

• 220 Sunshine - City - Gardenvale Remains a frequent long-hours route

• 232 Altona North - Queen Victoria Market Did not get minimum standards with early finish

• 246 Elsternwick - Clifton Hill - La Trobe University Remains a frequent long-hours route

• 250 Garden City / Port Melbourne - City - La Trobe University Remains a long-hours route

• 279 Box Hill - Templestowe Village Shops Upgraded in 2021

• 286 Box Hill - The Pines Shopping Centre Deleted in subsequent reform

• 291 Box Hill - Heidelberg Incorporated into 903 orbital with long hours and frequent service

• 301 The Pines Shopping Centre - City Incorporated into DART SmartBus network

• 304 City - Warrandyte Incorporated into DART SmartBus network

• 307 City - Mitcham Incorporated into DART SmartBus network

• 408 St Albans - Highpoint City Upgraded to minimum standards

• 410 Sunshine - Footscray Upgraded to minimum standards

• 411 Laverton - Altona Meadows - Altona - Footscray Upgraded but still below minimum standards

• 413 Laverton - Werribee Plaza Upgraded and then deleted in Williams Landing revamp

• 419 St Albans - Watergardens Railway Station Upgraded to minimum standards and reformed

• 425 St Albans - Watergardens Railway Station Upgraded to minimum standards and reformed

• 440 Werribee - Hoppers Crossing Upgraded and then deleted in Wyndham revamp

• 444 Hoppers Crossing - Tarneit Upgraded and then deleted in Wyndham revamp

• 508 Alphington - Moonee Ponds Upgraded to minimum standards

• 510 Essendon - Ivanhoe Upgraded to minimum standards

• 513 Eltham - Glenroy Upgraded to minimum standards and then split (with halves below minimum standards) 

• 536 Gowrie - Glenroy Missed out on minimum standards upgrade - no Sunday service & short hours

• 556 Epping Plaza - Northland Upgraded to minimum standards but remains a complex route

• 566 Northland - Lalor Northland - Lalor Upgraded to minimum standards but remains a complex route

• 567 Northcote - Regent Upgraded to minimum standards but remains a complex route

• 571 South Morang - Epping Railway Station - Campbellfield Replaced by 901 SmartBus orbital

• 580 Diamond Creek - Eltham Upgraded to minimum standards

• 600 St Kilda Light Rail Station - Southland Shopping Centre No reform, remains complex

• 605 Gardenvale - City Some reforms with Sunday upgrades in 2024 but not minimum standards

• 630 Elwood - Monash University Upgraded to almost minimum standards

• 664 Chirnside Park - Knox City Upgraded to minimum standards but remains complex

• 665 Ringwood - Dandenong Incorporated into 901 orbital SmartBus

• 670 Ringwood - Lilydale Upgraded to minimum standards

• 688 Croydon - Olinda Upgraded to minimum standards

• 691 Bayswater - Waverley Gardens Upgraded to almost minimum standards

• 700 Box Hill - Mordialloc Incorporated into 903 orbital SmartBus

• 703 Middle Brighton - Blackburn Upgraded to run 7 days on whole route

• 708 Carrum - Hampton Upgraded to minimum standards

• 733 Oakleigh - Box Hill Upgraded to minimum standards with further recent improvements

• 742 Eastland - Chadstone Upgraded to minimum standards

• 754 Stud Park - Glen Waverley Upgraded to minimum standards

• 775 Frankston - Lakewood Upgraded to minimum standards

• 781 Frankston - Mount Martha Upgraded to minimum standards

• 791 Frankston - Cranbourne Upgraded to minimum standards with frequency upgrade in 2016 Cranbourne network

• 828 Hampton - Berwick Railway Station Upgraded to minimum standards

• 831 Frankston - Dandenong Part became 901 orbital, other parts 832 and 833 in reformed network

• 840 Berwick - Narre Warren Circle Reformed and upgraded to minimum standards

• 850 Dandenong - Glen Waverley Upgraded to minimum standards

• 889 Nunawading - Chelsea Incorporated in 902 orbital SmartBus

• 896 Cranbourne Railway Station - Cranbourne East Reformed as part of 2016 Cranbourne network

These routes were the top 50 or so considered to be used by the most games patrons. 

Some routes got abolished as part of network reforms. Most others though remain with many upgraded either to minimum standards (ie 7 day service finishing at 9pm) or SmartBus (night service every 30 min until approx midnight). 

Possibly of interest was that, despite being in the top 50 out of then 300 or so routes to get service until late at night, a small group of routes have not made it to minimum standards nearly 20 years on. Most notable of this ilk is the 536 from Glenroy to Gowrie (which gets pretty good usage and serves a working-class catchment). The popular 630 on North Rd is almost minimum standards but just misses out. Many others not on the list did get upgrades. However most of these were only to about 9pm, with service at that time remaining sparse, as you can see on my network frequency maps. 

Conclusion

The Commonwealth Games period proved that Melbourne could have relatively good evening public transport. 

We've added 1.5 million people (ie more than Adelaide's current population) in the 18 years since. In that period we've added Night Network for after midnight weekend trips but train and tram service per capita has declined with timetables, especially for evenings, essentially stagnant. Whereas had service risen with population Melbourne could have made the Commonwealth Games timetable (including better evening and Sunday services) permanent. 

Buses have held up better per capita. The gains have been a mix of main route (SmartBus) roll-outs, minimum standards implementation and new growth area coverage. However there too growth in service provision has tailed off after about 2011. 

The games has shown that we just need to choose service to have it. Other cities, notably Sydney, have with a result that their evening PT far outpaces ours, with most of the difference happening after their 2017 timetable upgrade. There is no reason why we can't learn from them and catch up.  

Index to other Timetable Tuesday items 

My first frequent network maps

A quick flashback. 

See my maps (really diagrams) published on Jarrett Walker's Human Transit back in 2010. 

This has since morphed into my current Melbourne Public Transport Frequent Network map with lots of features like selectable modes, frequency thresholds and different maps for different time bands. 

Or for a vision of a future network, see my Future Frequent Network maps. 

UN 191: Route 603, 604 & 605 reform this Sunday

It's been on and off again but finally it's happening. This weekend in fact. I'm talking about reforms to the 603, 604 and 605 in Melbourne's inner south-east, which you can read about on the PTV website. 

This is a package of three small but worthwhile route reforms to support the south end of the Metro Tunnel. The north end got the 505 and 546 a few months ago but maybe there will a second round when the redundant 403 is deleted and by then excessive Route 401 frequency can be reduced, freeing resources for something better (A 7 day amalgamated Route 401/202 every 10 min weekdays, 20 min weekends would be my pick).  

Anyway back to the south. What's happening this weekend? Basically some of the long-standing problems and unfinished business from the current network will be resolved. The 603 and 604 are creatures of several rounds of Transdev/Kinetic network reform that saw the long 216/219/220 series from Sunshine split in the city and then the quieter southern portions truncated at Alfred Hospital under new route numbers 603 and 604. These had low usage relative to their service levels so their frequencies at some times of the week were reduced in favour of 'greater good' frequency upgrades on much busier routes (done in 2021). 

603 Brighton Beach - Burnley via Elsternwick

Melbourne's inner south-east has very few connections to the inner-east. While not strictly related to the Metro Tunnel, the opportunity is being taken for Route 603 to continue north to Burnley Station rather than west as it currently does. The current terminus is Alfred Hospital which isn't very strong. Also the route overlaps trams and part of the 604 bus. 

The new alignment is superior in that it enables currently difficult north-south trips from the inner south-east to the inner north. North-south cross-Yarra access is a major structural issue with the current bus network with routes and timetables like 548 and 609 receiving zero attention for many decades.  

Some, like the City of Yarra, would have wanted the 603 extended even further north via Burnley St to complete the local transport grid. Eg to Victoria Gardens a bit like the old 607. Maybe even the Hawthorn area. Both would have required more route kilometres than I suspect was beyond DTP's (very tiny) budget for these reforms. Still it's great to finally see progress towards a network concept proposed in the 2010 local area bus review and me in 2019. The next logical reform for the 603 could be a Victoria Gardens extension funded by starting it at Elsternwick in conjunction with simplifying the poorly used north-south rail-duplicating bus routes in the Brighton area. 

604 Elsternwick - Anzac Station

Alfred Hospital isn't a strong terminus and Anzac station was being built just around the corner so the opportunity is being taken to extend the Route 604 there. To pay for this northern extension the Gardenvale - Elsternwick section will be chopped off the bottom. This does not reduce bus coverage as other bus routes operate in the area. 

Monday - Saturday Route 604 will run every 20 min during the day and 30 min at night. Sunday service will be every 30 min day and 60 min night. It will retain its long operating hours, including after 10pm 7 day service (which is rare for Melbourne buses).

It's worth remarking that the formula used by DTP to pay bus operators favours cutting service kilometres to a budget rather than fully utilising buses and drivers with an operationally efficient roster and timetable. 

As an example 604's Sunday scheduled evening run time is 29 to 31 minutes. A 30 minute service using two buses is not quite possible given (i) the need for some layover at the ends and (ii) the lack of nearby terminating bus routes that it could interline with. Using one bus to run a minimum standard 60 minute service is also not possible for the same reason.  

Thus two buses/two drivers is the absolute minimum you can roster on Sunday night. A 40 minute frequency would allow reasonable scheduling efficiency with an acceptable layover for drivers. However the actual service provided is 60 minutes to scrimp money under the current funding formula, with buses spending nearly half the time waiting at termini, not carrying anyone.  This also means that while 604 is more frequent than the 603 (at every 40 minutes) Monday - Saturday night, the 604 is less frequent than the 603 on Sunday night with the latter retaining its 40 minute frequency. 

605 Gardenvale - City via Anzac Station

Finally there's the 605. This gets a minor route change, going via Domain Rd. That's a replacement for the tram that used to go there. The tram instead continues on Toorak Rd which is both straighter and connects better with Anzac Station. That's important due to the decision made not to build a Metro Tunnel station at South Yarra; instead the tram will do this job. Some 605 commuters will likely take advantage of Anzac Station to change to a train for a faster trip into the city, especially in the morning. 

Arguably most important for the 605 is its reformed timetable. It has long had a relatively frequent 20 min service on weekdays. However its operating hours are limited on weekends with a very poor 85 minute frequency on Sunday. The new timetable delivers wider weekend hours and generally better frequencies. I suggested this back in 2019 so it's good that it's happening. 

Saturdays has a 40 minute frequency in the middle of the day dropping to 60 minutes from about 3 pm. This seems unusual given that around 5pm from the city is a very busy time for departures to the suburbs on Saturday. I can only assume it is due to a very tight budget where the requirement was to spend very little. That is also reflected in the operating hours (eg little after 7pm) which remain shorter than 'minimum standards' for buses by an hour or two. The Sunday timetable is hourly all day. 

Summary

Overall, this is a good little package that fixes issues on three bus routes and gives them stronger termini to make a lot of trips easier. The revised routes and timetables will start this Sunday (17 November). 

If we could do this sort of very low-cost stuff several times faster and threw in extra bus kilometres (Perth will add 5 million in the next month to support the new Ellenbrook line's radically reformed bus network) then you'd have a much bigger bus reform agenda than we do. THAT would be a real Bus Plan.   

See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here

TT 195: The new Route 800 bus timetable

Most of Princes Hwy between Oakleigh and Dandenong will get 7 day buses for the first time in over 30 years under a new timetable to commence on Sunday 24th November 2024. The new timetable for the popular Route 800 between Chadstone and Dandenong will also feature tripled Saturday service and a rearrangement of weekday trips to extend its finish time to after 9pm. 

Minister's announcement here with news coverage here and here. PTV's write-up on the upgraded service is here. Timetables for both the existing and new services are available on their website.

The upgrade was funded in the May 2024 Victorian state budget following a 2 year community campaign by #FixDandyBuses (then as #Fix800Bus). 

Service features

What does the upgraded Route 800 service feature?

* Minor route changes for improved consistency and directness 

At the moment a few trips do a loop via Springvale cemetery. That lightly-used variation will cease. All trips will stay on the highway. The PTV website item advises that a signalised pedestrian crossing is available for those who need to cross Princes Hwy to reach the cemetery. The cemetery deviation actually has a bit of history, it effectively replacing the Spring Vale cemetery branch railway that was electrified in 1922 but with services ceasing in 1950. 

There will also be a small loop at the Chadstone end with buses operating clockwise. This was done to slightly speed trips.  

* Boosted weekend service with longer hours and higher frequency

This is the big reason for the upgrade. It seemed ridiculous that such a major route operating between the south-east's biggest shopping centre and its major suburban industrial centre via its busiest highway have such a limited service. That is no Sunday service and a sparse Saturday service including short hours and up to 120 minute afternoon gaps (see Timetable Tuesday No 2 for background).

The new timetable increases the number of Saturday trips from 16 to 53 (both directions counted). More than a tripling, that's enough to buy a 30 minute frequency during most of the day (approx 9am - 5pm) with a drop to every 40 minutes before and after. The 1 to 2 hour waits have been made history by this timetable. 

How do Chadstone retail workers fare? The new timetable has early Saturday arrivals at 7:45, 8:25, 9:05, 9:35, 10:05, 10:35 am. Not perfect for those with a 9am start (Chadstone's listed start time) but setting timetables requires a lot of jiggling and you can't please everyone unless you make the service frequent. In the afternoon from Chadstone the 30 minute service continues until 5:16pm. Then the 40 minute pattern takes over at 5:56pm. Those with a nominal 5pm finish might find that 5:16pm is too early and might have preferred that the 30 minute pattern continued a bit longer. The Chadstone website lists a 9pm closing time for Saturday. This is supported with last buses leaving at 9:16 and 9:56pm.  

Sunday contains only two fewer trips than Saturday (51 versus 53). There is again a 30 minute midday frequency with a fall to every 40 minutes earlier and later. The first arrivals at Chadstone are 8:00, 8:40, 9:10, 9:40am, with the last suiting a 10am start. There is an earlier finish with the last trip being 8:15pm ex-Dandenong as opposed to 8:50pm on Saturdays and 9:46pm on weekdays. Last finishes from the Chadstone direction are a bit more even across the week.

The times are not the same but this timetable having the same Saturday and Sunday frequencies is a really good feature. Especially on a route like the 800 that serves Melbourne's biggest suburban retail centre. The 30 minute service is a clockface 'memory' timetable - unlike the 40 minute frequencies so common across Melbourne's buses. On this the 800 timetable compares well with recent weekend upgrades for other popular shopping centre routes like 733 and 767, which got a 30 minute frequency on Saturday but only a 40 minute service on Sunday. 

* A rejigged weekday timetable with a later finish

Like all timetables this one was done to a budget. Some judicious nipping and tucking was required to keep the number of weekday trips the same as now but spread operating hours. For example there's a 40 minute early am weekday frequency towards Dandenong and an earlier finish of the 20 minute frequency from Chadstone. The trade-off is that you get a 2 or 3 hour later finish at night, with last trips  from there departing after 9:30pm.

Another win is for those finishing work at Dandenong. The current timetable finishes its 20 minute service at 5:08pm, with an approximately half hourly service until the last bus at 6:32pm. The new timetable keeps the 20 minute service going until 6:18pm, with an approximate 40 minute frequency until 9:46pm.  

Bigger than Metro Tunnel for some?

That might sound ridiculous but take another look. It's only after you play with the journey planner for some common trips at various times do you realise how much time better buses can save.

There couldn't be any better case than the upgraded Route 800 with this before/after example:

Supposing you wanted to go from Noble Park North to Chadstone, leaving at 10am on a Sunday. Not necessarily an uncommon trip. And there's a direct highway linking the two if you're driving. 

BEFORE: If it was this Sunday (ie before the upgraded Route 800 starts) you would be twiddling your thumbs until 10:53am. Then you'd walk 19 minutes to the nearest bus that runs on a Sunday (the 811, once bus an hour). You'd alight at Springvale station (passing close to Noble Park station but the journey planner doesn't recognise this as an interchange). Then, hoping there weren't replacement buses, you'd get a train to Oakleigh. From there you'd have to work out which bus is next to get to Chadstone. If you get all this right you will eventually arrive at 12:01pm. That's 68 minutes from when you started walking, or 121 minutes from when you decided you'd want to go. 

AFTER: From Sunday next week you'll have the 800 available. Board it at 10:02am and alight Chadstone at 10:40am. Simple. Depending on how you measure it a time saving of 30 min minimum (but potentially over an hour). 

Sunday trips to Dandenong are also way faster. In this case trip times fall from 45-50 minutes (again walk + bus + train according to the journey planner) to 20 minutes as direct access will be possible via the Route 800 (click below for better view).  

What about that Metro Tunnel comparison? The (then) premier's media release mentions a travel time cut of 25 minutes each way (ie 50 minutes return) for some trips. But there are people in areas like the south-east who don't often travel to the CBD and more often travel locally. Not to mention the issue of getting to the station to access the Metro Tunnel (which the upgraded 800 can help with). So, yes, for some the 7 day 800 boost is indeed more important in their lives than the Metro Tunnel. But there will also be network-effect cases where both work together to slash travel times.  

Weekend patronage boom expected

Route 800 is the sort of bus route whose patronage should respond well to service increases like these. That is because it is direct, serves major 7 day destinations, goes past a lot of jobs and has unique coverage of households with high social needs that don't all own cars. It is also generally the case that patronage / service elasticity is higher for off-peak than peak services, with all of the 800's extra trips being the former. 

September - November 2022 usage was 6436 passenger boardings for that quarter (DTP figures supplied). Multiplying that by 4 gives about 25 000 trips annually. Note that this is with the current sparse Saturday-only timetable involving 16 trips per weekend each way. 

This timetable lifts weekend service by 86 trips to 102 trips. That is an increase by 530% or to more than 6 times now. Even if usage was less than 1:1 elastic you might still get up to 100 000 trips annually just from the higher weekend patronage alone.

To see if such a result was plausible I checked other direct routes that already had substantial weekend service. The 472 (Moonee Ponds - Footscray - Williamstown) and 893 (Dandenong - Hallam - Cranbourne) are of similar length to the 800. Both achieved about 100 000 annual weekend boardings in 2022 (extrapolating from quarterly figures) despite both being much less productive than the 800 (even on weekdays when service levels are most comparable). For example 21, 33 and 20 weekday boardings per hour for 472, 800 and 893 respectively. 

While somewhat longer (23.5 versus 18km) the 767 was very like the 800 on a boardings per kilometre basis. In 2022 this achieved about 200 000 annual weekend boardings (noting that this was before the October 2023 Route 903 realignment via Deakin which will likely have affected 767 usage). The 767 serves three major suburban centres versus the 800's two but the 767 has significant indirect portions and weaker catchment demographics at its southern end.  

All things considered the upgraded Route 800 is bound to be a patronage winner given its catchment and usage of other comparable routes. And weekend patronage growth should be so high that it brings all-week usage of Route 800 up by at least 10 and possibly 20%, even if one conservatively assumes no increase in weekday usage (despite its overall better timetable).     

Summary and future

The upgraded Route 800 is a welcome major addition to 7 day public transport in Melbourne's south-east.

It will help more get to work, connect people to opportunities and serve large parts of south-east Melbourne that previously lacked 7 day transport. When the trains are disrupted some will use the 800 as a relatively quick way to get from Oakleigh to Dandenong. That adds a redundancy and robustness  that the current network does not have. Monash Clayton students living in parts of Noble Park North or Dandenong will also find the boosted 800 a handy time-saver. 

Longer term I can see the 800 becoming even better. Eg to every 15 min weekdays and 20 min weekends. Even wider operating hours could benefit cinema goers and late workers. Operating the bus in the main traffic lane might speed travel on parts of Princes Hwy. There may also be scope, with other network reforms, to reroute the 800 down more of Princes Hwy to be nearer Dandenong Market and the main shopping precinct. 

The 800's likely success may raise political interest in further needed Dandenong area bus upgrades. Initially these could be a basic 7 day service on routes without it like 802, 804 and 814. Then once that's been done strengthening the network such as half-hourly all week frequencies on routes like 850 (Dandenong - Glen Waverley) and corridors like Heatherton Rd should pay patronage dividends.  

For now though it's time to celebrate this achievement and use the bus as much as possible when the upgraded service starts in less than two weeks on 24 November.  

Index to other Timetable Tuesday items 

Victorian transport policy power list for 2024

Anyone who wants to see things done in transport needs to be interested in power and influence. 

Government is about making choices. For every choice that is made a hundred are not. 

Power is the ability to make, steer, amend or block such choices.

Influence is 'having a seat at the table' or being considered when choices are made or contemplated. 

If it is known that 'party X will not wear decision Y' and this is brought up as a reason for not doing Y then this indicates that X's influence is substantial. It might not even be necessary for X to ask that something be done (or not done) if the Overton Window shuts out anything that could be detrimental to X's interest. Change that threatens party X's position can be particularly confronting if it affects what they see as a normal right, habit or lifestyle rather than a special perk.   

X can just as easily be a real or imagined class of people (eg car drivers, train users or traffic engineers) as much as a specific person. Consideration extended might involve people not having to pay for a scarce private good (like 'free' parking) on public property. Or not proceeding with a simpler and more frequent train timetable that was generally beneficial but which forced some commuters in some marginal seats to change trains. With several Frankston line seats on thin margins, this fate befell the cancelled 2015 Metro timetable. However the same government, emboldened by its strong 2018 electoral result, implemented features of it in the 2021 Metro timetable without undue controversy.  

Some sectors appear to have better safety cultures than others, for instance rail engineering or aviation versus road engineering. A more flexible stance might be taken where something (like tram stop accessibility) is a legal requirement but the power of those requesting compliance is lower than the will of the government which has alternative uses for the billions of dollars this would entail. Offences like 'white collar' crime, culpable driving causing death or, until recent law tightening, industrial manslaughter may attract lighter or less custodial penalties than other crimes.  

These and other examples show that power and influence are not distributed equally.

And they cannot be gauged just by looking at organisation charts. 

Much is informal, behind the scenes and undocumented. 

Organisations can gain standing by having their alumni on boards, as staffers and as executives of other bodies. In this cloistered environment it is generally known what the other influential players think with their perspectives accommodated.   

On the other hand some nominally senior bodies can have less standing than one might think. Nominally strong bodies can be disorganised, constrained or ignored. Other smaller, newer or less known actors may have more influence. 

There can sometimes be power vacuums with policy anarchy the result. This can either be bemoaned (by the cerebral academic and planning class who wished that authorities heeded them more and had more clout) or deftly exploited (by the more outcome-oriented policy entrepreneur class). 

Power and influence are transient, dancing around like shadows created by a flickering flame.  

Any attempt to measure them by an outsider won't be current or accurate. They can be highly location, time or issue dependent. And some powerful organisations (eg banks, super funds, developers, universities and even racing clubs) can make decisions that greatly affect land use and transport in this city. 

Still, at least a relative quantification should be tried. Below is my crude attempt. Click for a clearer view. More power or influence is near the top. Government bodies are in white, non government in black. As the latter are often modally based I've tried to put them on a left-right axis of sustainability. 

As noted above I've left off most non-transport bodies. However they can be important in setting agendas. An example was the CFMEU whose big success was getting thousands of jobs for their members made a part of Labor's 2014 platform. This was Project 10 000 (jobs) which became the Big Build (sold to the public as removing level crossings and building major rail and road projects).

RTBU and TWU haven't been so successful at this given public transport service per capita has actually declined on our busiest modes. Despite a 'Big Service' agenda for train, tram and bus being hugely transformative. However they are good at getting ex-leaders into Labor seats, joining others in a section of Labor Unity (TWU) or Industrial Left (RTBU). TWU can also claim success in convincing the government to decouple the bus driver role from any responsibility for fare collection (notably myki top-ups) during the pandemic, with driver safety a lobbying point. This made paying harder for passengers and led to the government losing control of fare compliance on buses (though DTP denies this, claiming high validation rates in its annual report).  CFMEU has lately had major internal issues but willingness of the government to stimulate housing construction may give some hope to members as major transport infrastructure loses its shine.  

More planning rather than transport advocates, YIMBY (Yes In My Back Yard) has risen to prominence in sympathy with Gen Y and Millennial concerns over housing affordability. These advocates for denser housing had a huge year in 2024, rising rapidly in public profile and influencing the government to plan for and incentivise dense housing near stations. The government's been saying the right things but has yet to commit to commensurate improvements in public transport frequency and directness to better connect new designated housing areas.  

I've left off some central government institutions like Victrack, PT Ombudsman, Auditor-General and Treasury. I'm guessing some in the latter would privately disagree with some government projects like the Suburban Rail Loop and would likely favour road pricing. I also didn't include think tanks like the Grattan Institute since they dismantled their Transport and Cities Unit. That got a lot of media for their opposition to the Suburban Rail Loop but it didn't shift the state government's stance on it one iota. 

Also omitted are unorganised passengers, though to be fair they were more vocal 15 years ago when train reliability was poor, there was less working from home and a letters column in mX newspaper. But if I was to plot it I would rank weekday peak CBD commuters as having vastly more influence than non-peak travellers (including  mostly migrant evening and weekend casual workers). Proof of this can be seen in the politics of the 2010 election and what got done. That is an improvement in reliability (and to some extent frequency) for peak commuters but, especially for others in locations like Broadmeadows, Coburg and Epping, negligible improvements in off-peak and evening frequencies, which remain low. On the other hand regional and outer Melbourne weekday commuters have done well with improved V/Line frequencies, as has the overnight weekend economy with 'Night Network' commencing in 2016 (as an implementation of 2014's 'Homesafe' policy). 

I ranked the Department of Transport and Planning quite low even though it is, on-paper, the central department for the portfolio. Why? I just think it punches below its weight notwithstanding (until recently) high portfolio staffing growth. The big projects get snaffled by other bodies while potentially significant ones like bus network reform or tram accessibility hardly get funded. Some time ago the State Ombudsman confirmed earlier media reports that the then DoT was left out of initial Suburban Rail Loop planning. In 2021 the Auditor-General found DTP had no overall transport plan to have custodianship over. DTP's public profile is also low with its soon to depart Secretary leaving most media to the minister, spin-off delivery agencies or unnamed officials quoted in news articles. 

DTP/DoT's weakness is not confined to the current government; James Murphy's The Making and Unmaking of East-West Link suggested similar a decade ago for major projects. The result, he wrote, is a contested and anarchic policy environment open for 'policy entrepreneurs' within and even outside government can have out-sized influence profile. Nature abhors a vacuum after all.

What do you think about this list? Should others be on it? Or are certain bodies more or less influential than I've indicated? Comments are welcome and can be left below. 

TT 194: Geelong's new train timetable - Good, bad & ugly

The latest V/Line train timetables to come out are for services to Geelong, Warrnambool and Ballarat. Starting December 1, they honour the government's (much-needed) 2022 election promise to boost Geelong line weekend service from every 40 to every 20 min. As well as other changes that I'll mention later. Today I'll just discuss the Geelong line with particular reference to the growth area stations along it (Waurn Ponds, Marshall, Wyndham Vale and Tarneit). 

New Geelong line timetable - the good

The 20 minute weekend boost is indeed a game-changer. Not just for Geelong but also Melbourne growth areas like Wyndham Vale and Tarneit. These are a similar distance out as outer Frankston line stations (with trains every 10 min) but had a quarter the frequency with the previous 40 minute service. This upgrade massively cuts that difference. 

Another big positive is that, apart from a few 'holes' (eg a 33 min gap at Waurn Ponds) 20 minute weekend frequency holds up for a 14 hour span (7am - 9pm). That is vastly handier than the ~10 hours found on busy Metro lines to major stations like Moonee Ponds, Essendon, Craigieburn, Coburg and Reservoir in Melbourne's service-starved north . Planning for Metro timetables in the north, which have been basically stagnant for years, can really draw inspiration from the Geelong line here.   

It's not just Metro lines in the safe-seated north that could benefit. At certain times (eg 7-9am Sundays and 7-9pm both weekend days) frequency on the Geelong weekend timetable even trumps that on busy eastern lines like Belgrave/Lilydale and Pakenham/Cranbourne. This is because all but a handful of Metro lines (Werribee, Williamstown and Frankston) only get a 30 minute service (or worse) at these times, especially on Sundays.   

New Geelong line timetable - the bad

Late weekend am starts remain

Trains need to run at times people need to travel. There's a point of diminishing returns - eg the number of people wanting to go to the CBD at 2am is less than say 8am. You might not run a train at 2am Sunday, or maybe you'd have a cheaper to run bus if you thought some type of service was justified. But you still need a decent span of hours so that the train is an option for travel to jobs, major events and other transport such as long distance trains or airport buses. This makes service in the 5am - 8am window super-critical, especially on weekends. Reinforced by the precautions many take of arriving earlier than strictly necessary for critical long-distance trips to allow an 'unreliability buffer'.   

A late weekend am start has been a chronic problem with the existing Geelong (and Melton) timetables. This is in stark contrast to Metro lines that now enjoy 24 hour Night Network services. While you might not run Night Network services on V/Line the first train should at least arrive reasonably early (eg say 6 or 6:30am even on Sunday morning). The new Geelong timetable does not fix this, with the first arrival remaining too late to be useful for some early morning events, especially on Sundays. 

 

While it would be desirable that the two extra early Sunday inbound trips needed should start from Waurn Ponds, even commencing them from Wyndham Vale would have substantial benefits given the high usage of this and Tarneit station. 

40 minute weekday interpeak frequency remains for Waurn Ponds and Marshall

Even though the weekend timetable got a big boost to capitalise on the line duplication the weekday timetable didn't so much. This means twice the waits between trains on weekdays than weekends, a less legible service, and excessive dependence on timetables (you can't just take a bus or drop someone off at a station and take it for granted there'll be a train within a reasonable time).

Waurn Ponds and Marshall are  the nearest stations to the major growth area of Armstrong Creek so justify the 20 minute weekday interpeak service that finishes at South Geelong continuing to Waurn Ponds. 

Bus and coach information not where it should be on the PTV website

If you scroll down the PTV website train item you'll see a list of something like 50 bus and coach routes listed. These will get timetable changes to retain coordination with trains. This is notable as the Wyndham and Geelong bus networks, introduced in 2015, are the biggest instance of rail / bus coordination in the state. Regrettably PTV have a 'silo' mentality when it comes to publishing passenger information with a dislike of cross-referencing and hyperlinks. Hence if you go to their bus and coach page you won't see reference to these timetable changes. At least a brief item on the bus page and a link should have been provided. Speaking of buses, the 190 from Wyndham Vale to Werribee, originally intended to coordinate with all Geelong trains, retains its 40 minute weekend frequency, thus meshing with every second weekend train rather than every train (more or less) before. 

New Geelong line timetable - the ugly

Complex and irregular peak stopping patterns 

The new timetable keeps this. An opportunity exists for a true greenfields timetable with more regular times and fewer unique stopping patterns to make catching trains easier. Especially for trips between intermediate stations. This change did not exploit this opportunity but the sooner this happens the better.

Some 'holes' with sharp service drop-offs

A break to a regular frequency can discourage travel at certain times. Or it can give rise to crowding as people try to plan their trips to avoid it. Essentially the timetable forcing a travel behaviour change.

This effect is particular pernicious when the gap is widened for peak direction trip at shoulder peak times. This is because shoulder peaks need good frequency and spare capacity to try to flatten the peaks and create room for more passengers.

The new timetable exacerbates an already existing problem as the gap between trains at Tarneit increases from an already unsatisfactory 28 minutes to 33 minutes around 9:30am on the inbound direction. This is due to a messy interface between the peak and off-peak pattern. Either rejigging the peak timetable or adding a short trip from Wyndham Vale to Southern Cross might help plug this gap.   

The weekend timetable has some unhelpful gaps too. For instance the 20 minute inbound frequency at Waurn Ponds is broken (becoming a 33 min gap) just before 3pm Sundays. It would be 40 minutes if the Warrnambool train didn't stop there.

Arguably worse, as it affects the whole line, is the extreme frequency drop-off after the 9:21pm from Waurn Ponds. Before then a 20 minute service runs. After then it's an 80 minute gap, with the next train at 10:41. The best fix would be an extra trip, perhaps departing at 10:01pm, such as is done on Saturday where the gap is 40 minutes. But the very least the frequency fall-off should be gentler with the 9:21pm departure moved later.

This hole leaves those in the Tarneit area without alternatives to plug it since regular bus routes that could have run from the Werribee line have typically ceased around 9pm Sundays. The only bus that does run late 7 nights in the City of Wyndham is the 190 between Wyndham Vale and Werribee, with its original intention being to connect with Geelong trains and compensate for the removal of direct trains to Werribee in 2015. Scheduling the Route 190 is a juggling act since it is likely that more passengers would benefit from good connections from the Werribee end than Wyndham Vale. However it is unfortunate that the last Sunday evening Geelong - Werribee connection has gone from super-tight (bus leaving 2 minutes after train arrives) to just broken (bus leaving 1 minute before train). Passengers aren't however completely stranded, with another (and last) bus being 30 minutes later (11:53pm).    

Uneven train timetables with big holes may be a consequence of having to accommodate other movements on the line, including long distance services. However then could also indicate a parsimonious attitude to timetabling and/or a refusal to countenance even minor but highly beneficial improvements that are considered 'out of scope'. Also, as Page 50 of the latest DTP annual report advises, V/Line has difficulty with fleet maintenance and availability, with Vlocity availability at 87.1% in the last year, well down on the 92.5% target.  
 

Conclusion and wider implications

This welcome timetable upgrade brings some much needed weekend frequency benefits to the Geelong line. This is a major win for a population catchment exceeding 600 000 people and growing fast. 'Almost there but not quite' is my summary. 

The need for refinements remain, likely with disproportionate benefits. The more significant include extending the weekday 20 minute interpeak frequency to Waurn Ponds, a simpler tidier peak timetable, fewer 30 - 80 minute 'holes' in schedules and earlier weekend start times so important to support major Melbourne and regional events. The number of extra weekly trips needed to plug these gaps would be relatively small since most of the hard work on improving basic frequencies at most times has already been done. 

It puzzles me why they weren't done this time. It seems that Melbourne has an austerity mindset when it comes to all-day train frequency, even though most of rail's expenses are fixed. Examples include duplicating train lines but not simplifying complex peak stopping patterns, neglecting frequency, or accepting 40 minute Sunday morning train frequencies on major lines (that not even Adelaide does).

International rail trouble-shooter Simon Lane found that Melbourne's train reliability problems in the 1990s mostly arose from bad timetabling. 30 years on timetabling remains the single biggest reason why Melbourne's train service is barely half as good as Sydney's and generally inferior to Perth's.   

A new culture of abundant service needs to supplant the current 'scarce service' mindset to maximise the Metro Tunnel's returns on the considerable political and financial capital invested in it. For example 5 minute rather than 10 minute all week frequencies for at least Metro Tunnel's central portion. Not excessive when one considers existing service levels in Toronto, Vancouver and Sydney on their subway/skytrain/metro lines. Or even Perth with 7.5 minute core network frequencies. 

Only with this plus all-week frequency boosts on intersecting lines can the Metro Tunnel truly deliver all business case benefits, including the huge wins possible from a reconfigured tram network and enhanced connectivity across the state's rail network. Including the Geelong line that will hopefully get further timetable tweaks addressing the issues raised, before Metro Tunnel opening day.   

Index to other Timetable Tuesday items