TT 185: Full on Sundays - Why Highpoint's 408 bus is leaving people behind

Notwithstanding the state auditor-general finding that their portfolio's staffing payroll swelled by 85% in the three years from 2021/22 (the highest of any department and nearly triple the 29% state public service average), the Department of Transport and Planning, constrained by a strongly infrastructure-first government policy agenda, is rarely very responsive when it comes to boosting bus and train services. 

It pretty much only happens when there's a sustained period of leaving people behind, with media, community or parental pressure often instrumental. And when funding appears even minor changes can take years with the 31 month gap between the May 2021 budget funding for the Route 538 straightening and December 2023 implementation being an example. This isn't good if you want to grow network patronage and reap the benefits arising therefrom.  

A truly efficiency-minded benefit-maximising agency also ought to be playing a stronger defensive game than DTP currently is. For example fare revenue protection appears weak and unproductive but overserved bus routes can retain unreformed timetables for years. Both are to the detriment of potential cost-effective bus reform some of which fund themselves with only a tiny one-off capital expenditure needed for implementation.  

That's a long introduction to today's example of a recurring and indeed increasing need. 

Back in August I mentioned that more and more bus routes had higher passenger boardings per hour on weekends than on weekdays. This was because weekend usage was growing but bus timetables rarely reflected this. For example it's not uncommon for key bus routes to operate at half, one-third or even one-quarter their weekday frequency on weekends, especially Sundays. 

This pattern is particularly prevalent on bus routes to major shopping centres despite these being major weekend destinations and employment sources. I looked at Chadstone here and here.

Highpoint Shopping Centre is another example. It has the 82 tram but this is less convenient to the shopping centre than the bus interchange with seven routes. Two of these routes don't run Sundays and one that does (215) finishes early. The others are typically every 40 or 60 minutes on Sundays, with only 1 of the 7 (the 223) operating every 20 minutes or better all week thanks to some 2021 upgrades.

The last two columns are particularly telling. Most trains and trams have a Sunday : M-F wait ratio of close to 1. That is waiting times midday Sunday are not much more than midday on weekdays. However buses are much more variable, even though these are the main public transport mode to major shopping centres which are busiest then. 

Most notable for Highpoint is the 408, with 60 minute maximum waits on Sunday versus 20 minutes on other days, or a 3:1 ratio. 406 is not far behind with 40 minute Sunday headways, or a 2:1 ratio versus the other days. The ratio is infinite for 407 or 468 as these don't run Sundays. 

Finally there's the Sunday passenger boardings per hour column. This was based on August - November  2022 productivity data obtained from DTP. Both 406 and 408 are strong routes all week but have highest average loadings on Sundays since their frequency then falls off much more sharply than ridership. 406 and 408 Sunday numbers are also strong on a metropolitan-basis and would remain so if their Sunday frequency was doubled as I recommended here.  

So much for the numbers, what do high loadings on the 408, the route with the biggest mismatch between  Sunday patronage and service provision, look like in practice? For the answer, watch this video (from 26 November 2023).

The above video is not a one-off, with other accounts of full buses leaving intending passengers behind  on other trips (notably the 6:11pm). Hence a strong case exists for added Sunday trips on the 408 with Route 406 also well deserving of similar improvements. This will require extra funding given that 408's operator (CDC) already has the most efficient network of the major bus operators with little obvious 'fat' to trim thanks to previous reform.

The benefits of a 408 boost include not just Highpoint but also Sunshine (for which the 408 is an important feeder from two directions), Sunshine Hospital (whose only bus is the 408) and St Albans (with a large and diverse low income high bus using catchment). 

Longer term bus network reform for Highpoint could include consolidating the 223 with the 406 for a simpler 7 day turn-up-and-go Footscray - Highpoint route as well as reforming the 903 to provide Highpoint with an east-west SmartBus (to compensate for the promised but never delivered Blue Orbital).  

With the need now established, the question now is whether minister Williams and the government respond with targeted bus service improvements and network reform. The 2024 state budget would be a great opportunity to revive interest in better bus services after getting little in the 2023 state budget, Bus Plan notwithstanding. 

And, with such high recent growth in the portfolio's staffing establishment, it's over to DTP Secretary Paul Younis to ensure that planning and delivery capability for improved services is as high as it can be to maximise efficiency and responsiveness. 

Index to other Timetable Tuesday items