Sunday, January 11, 2026

EVERYTHING I've written about the Metro Tunnel

Excitement is building over the 'real' Metro Tunnel opening - that is when it becomes part of the regular rail network with frequent service day and night - on February 1, 2026.

Why the anticipation?

There is a particularly high anticipation with regards to the timetables we will get. I put this down to these reasons:

a. The government has been cagey about releasing even basic service specifications for the frequencies we'll get (the most official thing we've had to go on is the service plan 2016 Metro Tunnel Business Case which was done pre pandemic under a very different transport patronage and policy context).  

b. Low frequencies on most of the Metro network most of the day that shape its role and how useful it is. Going from 2 to 6 trains per hour or 14 to 18 trains per hour is the same service increase but the former is transformative while the latter merely adds some capacity. Timetables are thus more important on less frequent lines. 

c. The government's decade-long record of growing Metro service frequencies at a rate slower than population increase, as if they were hoarding them for something big later. That also means pent up expectations for when boosts do happen. 

d. Official communication that attributes the Metro service increases that happened to the infrastructure program  (even off-peak ones that did not need said infrastructure to implement)

e. Government advertising and media building up expectations such as posters saying 'more trains more often across Melbourne' and the premier promising a new timetable everywhere,  




Varying expectations

My observations when talking to people is that expectations on the service we'll get after the 'Big Switch' on February 1 vary greatly.

Those close to the project or who follow state transport and politics closely have had their expectations tempered. They may shrug their shoulders but won't be too surprised when the February 1 'Big Switch' timetables come out. After all peak travel patterns (especially) have changed since the pandemic and Melbourne's commuter-oriented and often bus replaced train network has been slow to build back patronage. This government also has a reputation for adding about the least amount of Metro service it can get away with after previous infrastructure works (although V/Line has fared much better). 

However those not close to the project or the industry (ie the 'punters' and 'normies') take promises at face value, hope that big projects will 'do the right thing' and only 'tune in' occasionally. Their expectations have not been tempered like insiders' have. So they may turn angry if what was perceived as a promise ends up not happening, even if those closer knew this all along. 

An example is this Radio 3AW story on Belgrave/Lilydale not getting a new timetable that aired on December 30 2025. Insiders could have told you that being separate the Burnley (and Clifton Hill) group were unlikely to get anything during the 'Big Switch' as it's more usual to implement timetables in stages to  match delivery capacity and manage risks. But public perception and expectations may be different, especially if fuelled by the government's own messaging (which as recent as January 3, 2026 said there would be Mernda and Hurstbridge timetable changes). Such over-selling poses a political risk for the government (in an election year no less) if what should be a huge 'good news' story acquires some unnecessary negatives, exacerbated by a - e above.    

For what it's worth, below are my own expectations of what will happen on February 1 (and later in 2026). Click for a clearer view. 


This item is only about scheduled service levels but I should flag reliability as a reputational risk for the Metro Tunnel. Unlike Sydney's Metro (which is an isolated independent system) the Metro Tunnel feeds suburban lines from both directions, so is subject to their problems. While the government has removed level crossings along them, there are still other reliability and infrastructure risks, as we have seen during recent hot weather. And even with relatively small disruptions the continuity of frequent service in the Metro Tunnel is quite fragile as it just needs one train not to run for it to have 20 minute gaps in the middle of the day. 

What I've written about the Metro Tunnel (date order)

If you can only read a few, see these ones first.

10 October 2025 15 years since Melbourne's first 10 min frequent train line (Metro Tunnel will add 2nd)
2 December 2025 Metro Tunnel has opened - some videos (includes my main Metro Tunnel video)
4 December 2025 What to do about Richmond, South Yarra and North Melbourne
1 January 2026 Welcome to 2026

So when will we see the Metro Tunnel timetables? Normally TV's website publishes new timetables early Friday afternoons. With the build up of the Now We're Moving / More Ways To Move campaigns, this Friday (16 January) could be a hot prospect. In past cases there have been media releases the day before new timetables emerge so keep checking the premier's website too. 

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1 comment:

Andrew said...

I'm really hoping for a better service through the tunnel than every ten minutes during the day. I certainly had the impression that would be part of the new timetable.

5:59 pm

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