Is there some method in the order in which bus routes are getting 7 day service?
Just before the 2022 state election I suggested upgrading more bus routes to run 7 days would be a good idea. I listed routes in decreasing order of Saturday productivity, since a route likely to be busy on Saturday will also do well on Sunday (if service was added). This has been proved to be so with upgraded routes like the 800 performing well on Sundays.
Since there are some five day routes that may also justify Sunday (and Saturday) service I made another list of these, again in descending order of (weekday) productivity.
Below are these lists (from 2022 based on 2018 productivity) and what has happened since with regards to 7 day service:
Six day routes in descending order of Saturday usage (boardings/hour, 2018)
506 Westgarth - Moonee Ponds
536 Gowrie - Glenroy UPGRADED
885 Glen Waverley - Springvale UPGRADED
281 Templestowe - Box Hill
804 Chadstone SC - Dandenong UPGRADE FUNDED
814 Dandenong - Springvale South
284 Box Hill - Doncaster Park & Ride UPGRADED
559 Thomastown Station
612 Chadstone SC - Box Hill UPGRADED
773 Frankston South - Frankston
509 Brunswick West - Barkly Square SC
404 Footscray Station - Moonee Ponds
503 East Brunswick - Essendon
549 Ivanhoe - Northland SC
----- >> (20 boardings/hour) << -----
772 Eliza Heights - Frankston
414 Footscray - Laverton Station
512 East Coburg - Strathmore Station
542 Roxburgh Park - Pascoe Vale (southern half) UPGRADE FUNDED
550 La Trobe University - Northland SC
844 Dandenong - Doveton
677 Chirnside Park SC - Lilydale
671 Croydon - Chirnside Park SC
538 Somerset Estate - Broadmeadows
431 Yarraville - Kingsville
558 Reservoir - Reservoir
776 Pearcedale - Frankston
271 Box Hill - Ringwood UPGRADED
694 Belgrave - Mt Dandenong*
468 Highpoint SC - Essendon
526 Reservoir - Coburg UPGRADE FUNDED
697 Belgrave - Belgrave South
415 Williamstown - Laverton Station
548 La Trobe University - Kew
236 Garden City - Queen Victoria Market UPGRADED
407 Highpoint SC - Avondale Heights
483 Moonee Ponds - Sunbury
273 Nunawading - The Pines SC UPGRADE FUNDED
857 Dandenong - Chelsea
490 Airport West - Gowanbrae
689 Montrose - Croydon Station
766 Burwood - Box Hill UPGRADED
672 Chirnside Park SC - Croydon
285 Camberwell SC - Doncaster Park & Ride UPGRADED
699 Belgrave - Upwey*
840 Pakenham - Gembrook*
786 Rye - St Andrews Beach*
Five day routes in descending order of weekday usage (boardings/hour, 2018)
237 Fishermans Bend - City774 Frankston - Delacombe Park
309 Donvale - City (Queen St)*
821 Southland SC - Clayton ROUTE DELETED
551 Heidelberg - La Trobe University UPGRADED
802 Dandenong - Chadstone SC UPGRADE FUNDED
783 Frankston - Hastings
546 Melbourne University - Heidelberg Station UPGRADED
680 Lilydale - Mooroolbark
705 Mordialloc - Springvale*
609 Kew/Hawthorn - Fairfield*
343 Greensborough - Hurstbridge
389 Mernda Station
758 Knox City SC - Knoxfield
531 Upfield Station - North Coburg
823 North Brighton - Southland SC
757 Knox City SC - Scoresby
842 Fountain Gate SC - Endeavour Hills SC*
686 Badger Creek - Healesville UPGRADED WITH 685 MERGER
745 Bayswater - Wantirna / Boronia*
795 Cranbourne - Warneet*
838 Fountain Gate SC - Emerald*
706 Mordialloc - Chelsea*
511 Craigieburn Station - Mandalay Circuit* UPGRADED
777 McClelland Drive - Karingal SC* UPGRADE FUNDED
687 Chum Creek - Healesville* DELETED IN NETWORK REFORM
886 Rosebud - Chisholm TAFE Rosebud Campus* UPGRADED
696 Monbulk - Olinda*
(*) Routes that run only a few trips
What contributes to chances of upgrade?
For six day routes patronage productivity is clearly the main factor that influences whether a route gets a 7 day upgrade or not. For example 6 of the most productive 10 routes got a 7 day upgrade implemented or at least funded in the last four years.
Of the productive routes that missed out, 506 in Brunswick is relatively close to 508 (which did get an upgrade funded) and 559 is a loop route also with relatively little unique catchment. 281 and 814 have portions that overlap with other routes but their cases for 7 day upgrades are still very strong.
Productivity was a weaker factor for five day routes. There the distribution was around the two extremes - that is productive routes had some higher likelihood of 7 day upgrades but so did less productive routes. However in cases like the 511, 777 and 886 the low productivity may reflect the routes' previously specialised function and/or very low service. The three more productive 5 day routes that got 7 day funding all served universities - La Trobe for 551, Monash for 804 and Melbourne for 546. The latter was also part of network reform associated with the Metro Tunnel project and Parkville Station.
Other factors include a strong local campaign (526), reform of other local routes (eg 903 rerouting via Deakin triggering 766's upgrade) and it serving brownfield redeveloping (236) or greenfields growth (511) areas.
Substantial progress in adding 7 day service has changed priorities for the next round of upgrades. Routes like 506, 281, 814 and 559 in the 6 day list stand out with 773, 404, 503 and 549 having substantial merit on patronage productivity grounds. As do some other like 844 in Dandenong on social equity grounds, 468 due the patronage potential derived from it linking the busy Craigieburn line with Highpoint and 431 due to its basically zero cost if implemented along with timetable adjustments to 432.
On the five day list 237 along Lorimer St, Fishermans Bend is prominent, followed by a couple of routes in the Frankston/Hastings area (774 and 783). While only a middle productivity route, 531 is notable for it covering (along with the also limited service 538) the socially disadvantaged and poorly serviced Somerset estate in Campbellfield.
Of course all these assessments depend on a route with generally acceptable alignment existing. There are certain cases (eg Sunshine - Melbourne Airport, or in the inner north-east between the Hurstbridge and Belgrave/Lilydale line where they either do not or their termini is weak (eg 548 and 609). These need genuine network reform, not just timetable tinkering.
See Timetable Tuesday items here
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