Tuesday, November 01, 2022

TT #175: Election 2022: Make all transport run 7 days


We're in a state election campaign. Simplicity is king when it comes to policy.

You want policies that are practical, affordable, beneficial, have broad appeal, are easy to communicate and specific. I had a go with a list of five here. One of them was effectively:

Make all public transport run 7 days 

is a pretty good one that ticks a lot of boxes. It's certainly practical as all trains, all trams and most bus routes already qualify. This makes finishing the job off relatively affordable. That it's beneficial is beyond dispute, with particularly strong wins for disadvantaged pockets who have been taken advantage of for their loyal votes for too long.

There's general goodwill towards public transport, even if not everyone uses it themselves. So you could argue there's broad appeal. It's pretty non-ideological and you won't get the polarisation you have like on some social policies. Even Labor's more niche Homesafe (Night Network) policy had broad appeal in 2014. Finally, it's easy to communicate, with a single line tolerably accurate. Though you want some wriggle room as it wouldn't be anyone's intention to run special routes like university shuttles 7 days.  

As for being specific, so people know they'll benefit, you can't get better than a list of 5 or 6 day routes to be upgraded. Here it is with top priority first: 

Six day routes in descending order of Saturday usage (boardings/hour, 2018)

800 Dandenong - Chadstone SC
506 Westgarth - Moonee Ponds
536 Gowrie - Glenroy
885 Glen Waverley - Springvale
281 Templestowe - Deakin University
804 Chadstone SC - Dandenong
814 Dandenong - Springvale South
284 Box Hill - Doncaster Park & Ride
559 Thomastown Station
612 Chadstone SC - Box Hill
773 Frankston South - Frankston
509 Brunswick West - Barkly Square SC
404 Footscray Station - Moonee Ponds
503 East Brunswick - Essendon
549 Ivanhoe - Northland SC
----- >> (20 boardings/hour)  << -----
772 Eliza Heights - Frankston
414 Footscray - Laverton Station
512 East Coburg - Strathmore Station
542 Roxburgh Park - Pascoe Vale (southern half)
550 La Trobe University - Northland SC
844 Dandenong - Doveton
677 Chirnside Park SC - Lilydale
671 Croydon - Chirnside Park SC
538 Somerset Estate - Broadmeadows
431 Yarraville - Kingsville
558 Reservoir - Reservoir
776 Pearcedale - Frankston
271 Box Hill - Ringwood
694 Belgrave - Mt Dandenong*
468 Highpoint SC - Essendon
526 Reservoir - Coburg
697 Belgrave - Belgrave South
415 Williamstown - Laverton Station
548 La Trobe University - Kew
236 Garden City - Queen Victoria Market
407 Highpoint SC - Avondale Heights
483 Moonee Ponds - Sunbury
273 Nunawading - The Pines SC
857 Dandenong - Chelsea
490 Airport West - Gowanbrae
689 Montrose - Croydon Station
766 Burwood - Box Hill
672 Chirnside Park SC - Croydon
285 Camberwell SC - Doncaster Park & Ride
699 Belgrave - Upwey*
840 Pakenham - Gembrook*
786 Rye - St Andrews Beach*

FlexiRide Croydon
FlexiRide Lilydale
FlexiRide Mooroolbark

Five day routes in descending order of weekday usage (boardings/hour, 2018)

237 Fishermans Bend - City
774 Frankston - Delacombe Park
309 Donvale - City (Queen St)*
675 Chirnside Park SC - Mooroolbark
821 Southland SC - Clayton
551 Heidelberg - La Trobe University
802 Dandenong - Chadstone SC
783 Frankston - Hastings
546 Melbourne University - Heidelberg Station
----- >> (20 boardings/hour)  << -----
680 Lilydale - Mooroolbark
705 Mordialloc - Springvale*
609 Kew/Hawthorn - Fairfield*
343 Greensborough - Hurstbridge
389 Mernda Station
758 Knox City SC - Knoxfield
531 Upfield Station - North Coburg
823 North Brighton - Southland SC
757 Knox City SC - Scoresby
842 Fountain Gate SC - Endeavour Hills SC*
686 Badger Creek - Healesville 
745 Bayswater - Wantirna / Boronia*
795 Cranbourne - Warneet*
838 Fountain Gate SC - Emerald*
706 Mordialloc - Chelsea*
511 Craigieburn Station - Mandalay Circuit*
777 McClelland Drive - Karingal SC*
687 Chum Creek - Healesville*
886 Rosebud - Chisholm TAFE Rosebud Campus*
696 Monbulk - Olinda*

FlexiRide Rowville
FlexiRide Rosebud

(*) Routes that run only a few trips


How did I establish this priority to make the above lists? I used objective data (August - October 2018 boardings per hour). This is a standard measure of the productivity of bus routes standardising for length, number of trips etc. 

The problem is that estimating usage of a bus service that doesn't exist is like estimating usage of a potential bridge by counting the number of people swimming across a river. We do however know that for the large number of bus routes that operate on both Saturdays and Sundays that if a bus route has high boarding numbers on a Saturday it will also be well used on a Sunday. You can see the closeness of the relationship on the graph presented here. Hence you can be confident that if you add Sunday service to busy Saturday routes that lack it then you will also get strong Sunday usage. These appear at the top of the six day list with a marker showing routes that rate above a respectable 20 passenger boardings per hour (on Saturdays). 

Weekday and weekend usage is less related than Saturday versus Sunday usage. However there are few other options when looking at the merits of 5 day routes that should be upgraded to 7 day service. Whereas the priorities in the 6 day list are good there's more scope for discussion with the 5 day list where you'd leave quiet peak or shopper routes with little unique coverage as running 5 days. From a cursory glance, higher rating routes like 237, 774, 675, 821, 802, 546, 680 and maybe 10 others have enough residential coverage to justify 7 day service. 

Want more detailed discussion on the most important? See TT #36 Thirteen Melbourne bus routes that most deserve Sunday service and TT 58 Thirteen Melbourne bus routes that most deserve Saturday service.

As for lower order (but still desirable) upgrades you'd be a bit flexible with priorities. For example 538 (6 days) and 531 (5 days) aren't that busy. But the demographics, social needs and isolation of residential Cambellfield mean there's grounds to be upgrading them before a route like 343 or the industrial 705. Data is a useful decision support tool but does not replace judgement in the final decision of according priorities.  

Conclusion

All up you would need to upgrade about 50 bus routes to 7 day service for you to be able to claim that the whole network runs 7 days. No route should run 6 days per week. It should be either 5 or 7 days. And the 5 day only routes should all be justifiable on the basis of being a supplementary peak-only, university shuttle, industrial or midday shopper routes. 

Most improvements can be simple timetable changes. For best value for money, especially on the quieter routes, there may need to be wider reforms. For instance Route 694 is substantially redundant and possibly does not need to run. There may also be a scope for rationalising or merging quiet routes like 531 and 538 to deliver a full 7 day service to a currently cut-off low-income area. 

It is to be re-emphasised that these changes work the existing bus fleet harder with no new purchases required. Thus adding network-wide 7 day service is cheaper than adding peak frequency. Even if frequency is not particularly high, there is much to be said for the dependability of all areas having a 7 day service and standard, easily communicated arrangements on public holidays. Because we don't currently have this, the DoT often doesn't understand its own complicated services and PTV frequently gets public information wrong.  And, especially during weekends with consecutive public holidays, areas without 7 day service can encounter 100 hour 'super waits' between buses

Large progress was made under Peter Batchelor in 2006 - 2010 where over 100 Melbourne bus routes got minimum service standards including 7 day operation. It's more than time that we finished the job with upgrades to the 50+ routes remaining. 


Index to Timetable Tuesday items

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