UN 105: Done in the wrong order? FlexiRide buses coming to Lilydale

Many think of flexible route buses as new up-and-comers that could transform transit. They're not. They go back to at least the 1970s as 'dial a ride' services tried in many places. Most failed, with low ridership and high costs per passenger.

Despite their chequered record, 'demand responsive' buses are a recurring recommendation in various transport plans over the years, old and new. These include 1988's MetPlan and 2021's Victoria's Bus Plan. More on why flexible route buses often fail here. 

 Telebus in Lilydale

One of the 'dial a rides' that did survive is 'Telebus'. It's operated near Croydon - Lilydale in Melbourne's outer east since the late 1970s. Telebus was established to service sprawl and demographics that could not be more hostile to bus usage as subdivisions turned their back on highway and station access.  

High car ownership, high incomes, low density and, most critically, street layouts did not enable direct and efficient bus routes. That is even if governments were willing to fund them, which they weren't in much of the 1970s and 1990s. For Chirnside Park this was initially due to a golf course being in the middle of the estate. When this later got filled in with houses the neighbourhood remained bus-hostile with narrow, winding and disconnected internal streets. Telebus was thus an 'after the horse has bolted' attempt to minimally serve a bad layout that good planning should have prevented.     

Like a fixed bus route, Telebus has a defined origin and destination and some fixed intermediate stops that are always served. However the intermediate stops are fewer than for a regular bus route. With Telebus you could either wait at a fixed stop or phone the dispatcher before the bus leave the origin and order the bus to call nearer your home. A non-myki add-on fare is charged for that service. This early '90s Invicta bus timetable book explains it as follows: 

Telebuses are a daytime-only shopper, school and commuter-style service. There is sometimes Saturday service but never Sunday or public holiday service. While many local bus routes got 'minimum standards' upgrades including Sunday service about 10 - 15 years ago, Telebus timetables were left untouched. 

The 1992 Met network map below shows four shaded areas. Each has its own Telebus route. Chirnside Park is Area One. There remain four areas up to 2021 though boundaries are slightly different (for now you can see them on the PTV Yarra Ranges map).

The subsequent addition or extension of some fixed routes like 664, 670, 675, 676, 677 and 680 near or through some Telebus areas is notable. These would have sapped some Telebus patronage (see Knox Maroondah Yarra Ranges Bus Service Review, p45). Also Telebus' boardings per hour was higher in 1978  than it was forty years later, partly due to there then being fewer 'competing' routes with overlapping catchments. Nevertheless Telebus shares some characteristics of fixed route buses (eg some fixed stops) which probably made it a better performer than purely flexible route buses. 

Telebus has always been Invicta Bus Company's 'baby'. It has continued under subsequent owners, including Grenda and Ventura. A similar concept was introduced across the Yarra in Gowanbrae as Route 490 from Airport West.

Unusual for buses in Melbourne, Telebuses don't have conventional route numbers, making information on them hard to find on the PTV website. The same can be said for 'how to use' details, which requires effort to find the special page here. PTV's app has even less information with recourse to the full website item necessary to find the number for booking. 

As mentioned before, Telebus started around Lilydale in the 1970s. Rowville gained it maybe a decade or so later with services to Stud Park and Ferntree Gully. At the time both Ventura and Invicta (then different companies) had buses that ran to Rowville but neither ran what you'd call a full service. This remains an issue today with effectively two incomplete networks operating - one fixed route and one flexible route - with 'minimum standards' service on neither.  

Last year Rowville's Telebuses were replaced with FlexiRide, This removed Telebus' fixed times and stop. It also stripped both the PTV website and app of timetable information, with everything being shunted off to a separate app (although phone bookings were still taken). The area's fixed route network was not reformed and remains indirect and infrequent. My write-up on Rowville FlexiRide is here. 

John Usher of Invicta Bus Company presented Australasian Transport Research Forum papers about planning and operating Telebus in 1978 and 1994. I recommend reading these for detailed background on the Lilydale and Rowville Telebuses. 

FlexiRide in Lilydale

Following on from Rowville, now it's Lilydale's turn. From October 4, 2021 all their Telebus services (1, 2, 3, 4) will be replaced with FlexiRide. Buses will operate in three zones. Each zone will have two anchor destinations, typically a railway station and/or major shopping centre. An annotated version of the existing PTV area map (Telebus areas in orange) with guessed FlexiRide travel zone boundaries is below.  The FlexiRide app will likely have a fuller map, with the difference being the separate zones as opposed to just one as with Rowville. 

FlexiRide operating hours are 6am to 8pm weekdays and 8am to 6pm Saturdays. There will be no Sunday or public holiday service. The absence of the latter puts it out of kilter with the standard (but only partly implemented) pattern for Melbourne buses where routes with Saturday do run on most public holidays. Bookings can either be made via the FlexiRide app or telephone. The telephone number is the same as that used for the Rowville FlexiRide (8710 6377). 

Boarding points can include physical or 'virtual' bus stops (which are unmarked so may be harder to find). The PTV site says that FlexiRide is a 12 month trial, though I can't see the name going back to the original Telebus after then. Overall these changes move the service further away from a fixed route (albeit one with a variable path between some fixed intermediate stops) to a fully variable path. This is generally in the direction of less rather than more passengers per bus operating hour productivity. 

What about the door to door service for which Telebus imposed a fare surcharge? The surcharge has gone. There is still the closer service available but only for those with accessibility requirements. The ending of the surcharge removes the last vestige of 'pay the driver' cash bus fares in Melbourne, although prepaid ticket books were available.

Other network changes

As well as Lilydale Telebus becoming FlexiRider, two other changes are happening to local buses on October 4.   

Regular bus route 676 will disappear. This will be covered by one of the FlexiRides. There are fixed route buses on surrounding main roads but part of the area is hilly. 

Also Route 672 between Croydon and Chirnside Park will be simplified to become a fixed route bus at all times. Currently a section north of Croydon has off-peak Telebus running with it able to deviate in the Croydon Hills area. Now it will remain on Yarra Rd, simplifying the service and providing more predictable travel times. Some passengers will need to walk further but the general experience with Telebuses is that the fixed stops see the most usage. This makes the 672 a regular bus route rather than being 'neither fish nor fowl'.  

Both these changes are relatively minor. They don't much overhaul the network, despite local buses being amongst the least used in Melbourne. Not even the redundant and duplicative 673 is removed. And main roads that don't have buses don't get them. 

Is this the best we can do?  

The short answer is no. 

Just replacing Telebus with FlexiRide is replacing one low productivity bus service model with one even lower. All while neglecting the fixed route network with greater potential. The tendency to take the path of least resistance of rebranding an existing similar service, adding an app and calling it bus reform is a habit the Department of Transport needs to quit.  

This is because flexible route buses have low passenger boardings per hour. Most commonly this is around 5 to 10 boardings per hour (or less for operating models less successful than Telebus which is probably 'best of type'). Even quiet fixed routes in sparse suburban areas do about double that. And it's double again in areas with straighter streets, higher density and better demographics. 

Rowville does not have great demographics for buses. It also has a pitiful mix of a poor quality unreviewed fixed route network and a limited hours FlexiRide service grafted over it. Similar applies in the Mooroolbark and Chirnside Park areas where routes like 664, 675, and 677 operate near or through the Telebus area. The presence of both types of services may mean that neither thrive for the thin patronage market offering. 

A concept network

The order we plan various parts of the network is critical. Service planning is basically about providing the best service to the most number of people at an affordable cost. 'Best' typically means things like operating hours, frequency, directness and speed. This usually means running frequent service along main roads that are reasonably walkable to most. 

Such a network may have coverage gaps which routes on in between streets can cover. Planners may have to trade-off frequency and coverage depending on local needs and demands. They may have to insert local 'in between' routes, especially if neighbourhood walkability is poor. Both frequent and local bus services are fixed routes, with flexible routes a last resort due to their high costs per passenger carried and sharply reduced reliability if more than a few people start using the service. 

Their inability to efficiently serve passengers means that before you start fiddling with flexible routes a higher priority should be to reform fixed routes, as per the framework below. If flexible routes have a role it is a minor residual one serving certain special needs that justify the high cost per passenger. 

Just like in Rowville, the recipe in Lilydale is 'FlexiRide first'. 

It is being introduced while the local fixed route bus network is hardly changing.

Buses would become more useful and more reliable if the order of reform was reversed. 

Two concepts where regular routes were deviated or extended to throw coverage into areas currently served by Telebus (and would be served by FlexiRide) are mapped below: 

NETWORK 1

NETWORK 2

The pockets where any flexible route may be considered would get smaller if not vanish. This will result in a smaller and preferably zero proportion of buses being used for inherently indirect and inefficient operations. This should make it possible to deliver the most effective and economical bus networks to an area where service has long been substandard.  

Other network concepts worth exploring appear in 2010's bus service review for Knox Maroondah & Yarra Ranges. Only a few recommendations from that were implemented. 

Conclusion

On one level it is good that buses in the Lilydale area are getting attention. On another it's not the attention that would necessarily deliver the most efficient and economical service. 

This is because changes are being made in the wrong order, with flexible route services being adjusted without there being a review of fixed routes first.  Because the latter generally have higher boardings per bus hour (or potential for same) reforming fixed routes should be done first. 

Two concepts for fixed route networks that would lessen or remove the need for flexible routes have been outlined. Comments are appreciated and can be left below. 

See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here

Timetable Tuesday #133: 907 the biggest winner in oily rag bus revamp

Back in June we were promised some bus upgrades as the first instalment of Victoria's Bus Plan. The plan itself is not that detailed when it comes to specific measures. But a few were announced. These included a revised Night Bus network that added 24 hour weekend service to some regular bus routes, some funded but not yet implemented initiatives like the Parkville - Victoria Park shuttle (mentioned on Friday) and timetable changes to 19 (mostly unspecified) bus routes.  

The resurgence of COVID and a further lockdown (including a curfew) deferred the Night Network reforms. Then Minister Ben Carroll issued a media release last Tuesday about the other changes. Details were still limited but we learned more about the Victoria Park shuttle, a proposed route in Keysborough South (funded in the 2019 Budget) and extended Sunday evening bus service to Doncaster and Templestowe. All-up nine bus routes would get off-peak service upgrades. 

There was the odd hint. For instance Routes 223 and 293 were mentioned in places. But not other details. Hence little could be written until timetables came out on Friday. News of their availability was advised on the PTV website. 

How significant are the changes? The PTV website item doesn't give much guidance. Their style is like "here are the timetables, go compare them yourself". Even though a comprehensive comparison takes the best part of half a day that few people will spare. When people bemoan the low profile of buses (and improvements to them) in Melbourne, the Department of Transport must take significant responsibility.  

Without much official guidance, the task falls to others to explain the 19 changes. What's in them? Do they make buses more useful and easier to use? And do they signal a real revival in bus service reform? Keep reading and find out! 

It's all about Transdev (this time anyway)

All 19 changes affect one just one operator - Transdev Melbourne. They are very low cost overall. Some if not all are paid for by moving service from quiet routes to busy routes. Or from quiet times to busier times on the same route. So if you were expecting big all-day service gains on 19 routes you are likely to be disappointed. Though PTV did give warning with phrases like "better aligned to passenger demand" (which allows cuts as well as gains). Hence it's a 'robbing Peter to pay Paul exercise' but if Paul's routes serve many more people than Peter's then it's still a worthwhile thing to do.

Why Transdev? Of all the bus operators in Melbourne, Transdev (who inherited old government Tramways and Railways routes) is the one whose services have the greatest scope for pruning and redistribution. Some sensible reforms have happened but there was scope for more, as I explained nearly two years ago. 

Brief description of changes

The release of Victoria's Bus Plan marked revived official interest in bus service reform. With it being so long since its last big run out of the garage, the engine of bus reform needs a while to reach full speed. So right now they're just doing some low-speed test laps without complex manoeuvres involving route reforms and multiple bus companies. 

These changes, to start on September 20, are timetable adjustments only. They don't change routes. Some routes will see fewer trips while others will get more. Overall, it's a boost for some of Transdev's (and Melbourne's) more popular bus routes with the City of Manningham being the biggest winner.  

Watch this video for a quick taste. 

What do these changes mean for the network? As it turns out quite a lot. Not least because Melbourne has so few full-time 7 day frequent service bus routes. Fewer in fact than smaller cities like Brisbane and Perth. 

Within two weeks the number of individual metropolitan bus routes operating every 15 minutes or better during the day / all week will double from two (246 and 732) to four (234, 246, 732 & 907). 

Four SmartBuses, all in the Doncaster area (905, 906, 907, 908), will gain 9pm to midnight Sunday service, increasing the number of seven day 'full-time' bus routes in Melbourne from 14 to 17 (as one very minor route loses its full time status). 

This is the biggest single increase we have seen for many years. Also significant is that three of these routes (905, 907 & 908) will gain 24 hour weekend service as part of the revamped Night Bus Network (discussed here). 

Doncaster Road's Route 907 features in all three upgrades so sees the biggest gains. 

Some less frequent Transdev routes also feature. Weekend upgrades are most common. These include wider operating hours and/or increased daytime frequency, especially on Sundays. The aforementioned Garden City 234 and Doncaster 907 go from every 20 to 15 minutes. Highpoint's 223 improves from every 30 to every 20 minutes on Sunday morning. This breaks the decades-long association with old operating patterns that had a lesser pre-midday Sunday service (you still see this on tram and train timetables, and even bus 605). Also the popular 270 and 279 north from Box Hill double from every 60 to every 30 minutes on Sundays. 

293 between Greensborough and Box Hill gains with better weekend hours and a halving of Sunday waits from 120 to 60 minutes. Despite its overlap of other routes this is overdue as the 293 both gets good usage and follows a particularly direct alignment that should have become a SmartBus (instead of weaker alignments such as parts of 901 and 902 in the area). 

In June I listed 19 Melbourne bus routes that most deserved an upgrade. Three (270, 271 and 279) are operated by Transdev. Of these two (270 and 279) get better hours and weekend frequency similar to the middle option suggested. Furthermore 279 and 907 rank in the top ten most productive weekend bus routes in Melbourne so their upgrades are solidly justified by usage evidence. 

Now to the oily rag reference. There was little if any new money for the abovementioned upgrades. Instead funding came from cuts in Transdev's less used routes. Usage of these was low relative to the service frequency provided. Service reduction techniques included: 

* AM peak services: Where buses were very frequent and usage was not high, some inbound trips on long routes (eg 305, 309, 905, 906, 907) were started part way along it. This saved significant service kilometres that could be redistributed while retaining a still good 10 minute frequency at the route's origin. This is easier to do on inbound morning trips as you avoid the 'multiple destination problem' that would arise if some trips (particularly afternoon peak) were finished short. 

* Frequency reductions: This was most common in the evenings on quieter but well served routes. Instead of every 20 minutes the frequency might be cut to every 30 or 40 minutes. Or every 30 down to every 40 or 60 minutes. There are exceptions but operating hours were generally preserved or even extended (particularly on Sunday mornings where it's known that some unmet travel demand exists). The later it was the more likely frequency would be cut, with some routes having the second last trip removed. Daytime frequency cuts were generally avoided, with the main exception being the 908 on weekends (cut from every 20 to 30 min) so that this retained coordination with the 907 (upgraded from every 20 to every 15 min). Routes 305, 603 and 604 are the most affected though others like 270, 279 and 426 also got small reductions late at night. 

* Shorter operating hours: Again appears to be a last resort only done if usage was very low. The very short Sunshine - Sunshine South 429 stands out in this regard, with everything much after about 9pm being deleted. 

The full list of routes that will get their timetables changed from September 20 is: 

Route 215 Caroline Springs – Highpoint Shopping Centre

Route 223 Yarraville – Footscray – Highpoint Shopping Centre

Route 234 Queen Victoria Market – City – Garden City (Port Melbourne)

Route 237 Fishermans Bend – City (Queen Victoria Market)

Route 270 Box Hill – Blackburn North – Mitcham

Route 271 Box Hill – Ringwood via Park Orchards

Route 279 Box Hill – Doncaster Shopping Centre via Middleborough Road

Route 293 Box Hill – Greensborough via Doncaster 

Route 305 City – Doncaster Shopping Centre – The Pines Shopping Centre

Route 309 Donvale – The Pines Shopping Centre – City

Route 370 Mitcham – Ringwood via Ringwood North

Route 426 Caroline Springs – Sunshine

Route 429 Sunshine – Sunshine South

Route 603 Alfred Hospital – Brighton Beach

Route 604 Alfred Hospital – Gardenvale

Route 905 City – Templestowe – The Pines Shopping Centre

Route 906 City – The Pines Shopping Centre – Warrandyte

Route 907 City – Doncaster – Mitcham

Route 908 Doncaster Park and Ride - The Pines Shopping Centre

Some get increases and some get cuts. Some get a bit of both. Changes to some are major while others get only minor tweaks. Even more detail on each below. 

Summary by route - large changes

Route 223 Yarraville – Footscray – Highpoint Shopping Centre
+ Sunday am service increased from 30 to 20 min
- Late weeknight and Saturday evening service reduced from every 20 to every 30 min

Route 234 Queen Victoria Market – City – Garden City (Port Melbourne)
+ Sunday day service upgraded from every 20 to every 15 min

Route 270 Box Hill – Blackburn North – Mitcham
+ Sunday day upgraded from every 60 to every 30 min with large longer span
+/- Monday - Saturday night frequency dropped from 30 to 60 min but better span
(upgrade to minimum standards)

Route 279 Box Hill – Doncaster Shopping Centre via Middleborough Road
+ More consistent inbound am peak timetable
+ Large improvement in weekend spans (earlier starts, later finishes)
+ Saturday am frequency harmonised with trains at Box Hill
+ Sunday day service improved from 60 to 30 min
- Late weeknight frequency reduced from 30 to 60 min

Route 293 Box Hill – Greensborough via Doncaster 
+ Saturday am service starts earlier with some short trips added
+ Sunday frequency doubled from 120 to 60 min with better span

Route 305 City – Doncaster Shopping Centre – The Pines Shopping Centre
- AM peak frequency reduced with shorter runs
- Weeknight span reduction on inbound (but weekend unchanged)
- Weeknight and Saturday evening frequency reduced from 30 to 40 min
- Sunday evening frequency reduced from 30 to 60 min

Route 370 Mitcham – Ringwood via Ringwood North
+ Weeknight span extended from 7 to 9pm (hourly service)

Route 429 Sunshine – Sunshine South
- All trips much after 9pm deleted

Route 603 Alfred Hospital – Brighton Beach
+ Earlier Sunday am start
- After 7pm service reduced from every 20 to 40 min
- Saturday am service reduced from every 20 to 40 min
- Sunday evening service reduced from every 30 to 40 min

Route 604 Alfred Hospital – Gardenvale
+ Earlier Sunday am start
- After 7pm service reduced from every 20 to 30 min
- Before 8am Saturday service reduced from every 20 to 30 min
- Sunday night service reduced from every 30 to 60 min

Route 905 City – Templestowe – The Pines Shopping Centre
+ New 9pm - midnight Sunday evening service (every 30 min)
+ 24 hour weekend service (new Night Network)
- Some AM peak trips shortened to start at Templestowe Village

Route 906 City – The Pines Shopping Centre – Warrandyte
+ New 9pm - midnight Sunday evening service (every 30 min)
- Some AM peak trips shortened to start at The Pines

Route 907 City – Doncaster – Mitcham

+ Weekend day service upgraded from every 20 to every 15 min
+ New 9pm - midnight Sunday evening service (every 30 min)
+ 24 hour weekend service (new Night Network)
- Some am peak inbound trips converted to short-starters

Route 908 Doncaster Park and Ride - The Pines Shopping Centre
+ New 9pm - midnight Sunday evening service (every 30 min)

+ 24 hour weekend service (new Night Network)
- Weekend day frequency reduced from every 20 to every 30 min (to meet 907)

Summary by route - small changes

Route 215 Caroline Springs – Highpoint Shopping Centre
- Minor reduction in weekday span

Route 237 Fishermans Bend – City (Queen Victoria Market)
+ Slightly longer evening span from Port Melbourne

Route 271 Box Hill – Ringwood via Park Orchards
- Small reduction in am span
- Some weeknight reductions
- Some trips terminate at Donvale

Route 309 Donvale – The Pines Shopping Centre – City
- AM peak short trips starting at Donvale

Route 426 Caroline Springs – Sunshine
+/- Sunday span shifted to include earlier start and earlier finish
- Some late evening frequencies reduced to 60 min

Loose ends and next steps

These are worthwhile but 'small target' timetable reforms. They deliver substantial benefits (particularly in the Doncaster area which wins longer hours and a train-like frequency on its Route 907) but are unlikely to arouse complaints. The (almost entirely evening) service reductions will likely hardly be noticed, and could be defensible on the grounds of low patronage and higher needs elsewhere. COVID-19 makes it hard to compare patronage performance but the revised timetables should win several times more passengers than they lose. 

It is arguable that the changes don't go far enough. Further opportunities, even just within the Transdev network, remain. However they cut some services (including during the day) by more than was done here and (in some cases) may be more controversial. Examples include: 

223 - The 15 minute Saturday morning frequency starts very early. It may be excessive for the patronage. Reducing this to 20 minutes for the first couple of hours could fund minor trip insertions elsewhere. A larger network reform would consolidate the 223 with CDC-run 406 to provide a simpler Footscray - VU - Highpoint route every 10 minutes. 

271 - This timetable only got minor changes. Its catchment demographics aren't favourable for patronage yet it gets a (good by Melbourne standards) 30 minute Saturday frequency despite not running on Sundays. An opportunity exists to run a low-cost 7-day service by halving Saturday service to hourly and introducing a new hourly Sunday service.  

279 - Because this was a timetable change only, the opportunity was not taken to remove the occasional (and complex) Blackburn deviation. The 270 and 279 Sunday upgrades could have been a good quid pro quo for this as it serves the same catchment. Hence I see this as an opportunity missed because public resistance to new bus networks lowers if you can show 'swings and roundabouts' improvements while cutting out complexities and straightening routes. Looking further ahead, the 279's high usage makes it a potential low-cost SmartBus route. However it needs to be simplified first, with the infrequent Blackburn and Templestowe variations removed. Once these are done all it then needs are some modest extensions to operating hours given the upgrade of Sunday service to half-hourly. 

293 - This got a Sunday upgrade to every 60 minutes (instead of 120 minutes). However further frequency and span upgrades would be desirable. The main thing holding this back is the network - the 293 route is a good alignment but the SmartBuses that overlap much of it are not. Hence further improvement might have to wait until much more ambitious network reform that rethinks the SmartBus orbitals. More here. 

309 - Covers an overserviced but generally low density corridor. This change shortened some peak trips. A more radical change could have removed interpeak service to make it peak only. However the area really needs a complete network overhaul which is far more complex than the timetable tweaks discussed here. These would address the future of the poorly performing and duplicative 280, 282 and 901 services on Reynolds Rd, while leaving the door open for new connections such as between Heidelberg and The Pines Shopping Centre. 

370 - Gained weekday service until 9pm, ie a significant improvement on the previous 7pm finish. However weekend services still finish early. A low-cost upgrade would be to improve weekend hours too so that the 370 meets 'minimum service standards' for local routes. 

429 - This route could have been deleted entirely however to do so might have required a small deviation to the non-Transdev Route 428 to retain coverage. However the 429's reduced operating hours (eg a 9pm finish to match the 428) probably makes such an amalgamation easier in the future. Such an incremental approach, where opportunities are taken over several timetable changes to gradually increase, reduce or reform routes towards a desired network goal, is successfully used in Perth as explained here. 

603 & 604 - These changes reduced evening frequency but kept operating hours pretty much unchanged. These are not well used routes and the case could be made for finishing service earlier if more deserving use could be made for the resources saved (which is possible). 

A few Transdev routes were left out. Arguably routes like 251, 302 and 304 could have had operating span increases to deliver minimum standards service seven days. 220 is arguably 907's western twin so could also justify 15 minute Sunday service. The popular 216 could be considered also. However reforms are best done in conjunction with amendments to the partly overlapping non-Transdev 410 to create a simple frequent Ballarat Rd route operating every 10 minutes or better. 

600/922/923 between St Kilda and Southland also didn't get a look-in. However proper network reform rather than just timetable adjustments is needed for the best results here. Similarly 232 is quite poorly used but has resources that are best used to drive Altona North area bus network reform. The 350, which has little unique coverage but serves a developing area, needs to be rethought. The same can be said for Fishermans Bend routes that send too many buses to Queen Vic Markets. There is also the about to commence 202 Melbourne University Shuttle with some suggesting an extension to Kew Junction. 

The fate of the three SmartBus orbitals is however the big design issue facing the Transdev bus network. These gobble up a huge percentage of its bus service hours resources. Some orbital sections are over-serviced while others should have more frequency. Train connectivity is poor, parts inefficiently overlap other routes while the 30 minute weekend frequency, in particular, is not adequate for a top-tier premium bus route in a major city. Addressing this is a matter for substantial orbital SmartBus route reform as discussed here. 

Conclusion

These changes are a good start. They get us closer to the 7 day frequent bus service Melbourne needs on its key routes. Due to their very low cost they are the sort of loose-ends 'timetable optimising' reform that should be the daily business of the Department of Transport (but, for too long, hasn't been).

All of the September 20 reforms could have done at any time in the last five or six years. But they weren't.

This was just one bus company's routes. Imagine what you could do with others, especially in the rarely reformed middle-north and south-eastern suburbs. And, even better, more sophisticated area-based reforms with a network-wide multi-operator approach taken.

It is not to the credit of previous ministers and department heads that they let opportunities for even low-cost bus service reforms such as these slip by for so long. 

It is good that we now have a minister who has restarted the potentially powerful engine of bus reform.

There is a lot of catching up to do with both smaller timetable tweaking and larger network reforms to make buses more useful to more people.

All effort should now be made to streamline processes and increase the department's capacity by about five-fold to address multi-decade backlogs and deliver more bus service reform. 

The minister might do well to encourage the department to think bolder and bigger to sweep away years of inertia on buses that has historically retarded progress. 

At the same time it is also essential to develop a 'small improvements' culture (with budget) so that the more potential worthwhile and cost-effective reforms (like these) in other areas could happen sooner. 

An index to Timetable Tuesday posts appears here

UN 104: Connecting the inner north with the new 202 bus shuttle

The average new bus route in Melbourne brings one or two trips per hour to an outer suburb that previously lacked coverage. It costs around a million dollars annually and may use two or three buses. Most often it gets layered over an existing unchanged network. In the last few years we've gained several routes in growth areas such as Tarneit, Craigieburn and Clyde North.   

Other styles of new service are rarer. For example, despite rapid population growth, we haven't added a new SmartBus route in over a decade. And few middle suburbs have had overhauls to their often confusing 30 or 40 year old bus networks. 

The rise of the university shuttle

A bright spot on this otherwise stagnant Melbourne bus scene has been the university shuttle bus. Fifteen years ago there were none. Now some rank as amongst Melbourne's strongest bus routes. These are typically short and frequent routes in inner and middle suburbs that link a major university to a railway line. Services are typically every 10 minutes or better with express running reducing travel time. 

Their patronage performance (when measured by passengers boardings per hour) is often high even though most overlap existing less frequent bus routes. Special liveries and targeted marketing has given the shuttles a higher profile than the unloved, undifferentiated and infrequent mess that is most of the rest of Melbourne's bus network.

A quick summary of these routes (most successful first) is below:

601: Huntingdale - Monash Clayton. Overlaps 630 & 900 (less frequent with more stops). 

401: North Melbourne - Melbourne University

301: Reservoir - La Trobe University. Overlaps 561 (less frequent with more stops). 

201: Box Hill - Deakin University. Poor frequency & duplicates 281, 767 & 768.

768: Box Hill - Deakin University. Even poorer frequency & duplicates 201, 281 & 767.

403: Footscray - Melbourne University: Poor frequency & duplicates more frequent 402.

The first three are very successful. 201 is less so but has potential if merged with the duplicative 768 to form a more frequent service. 403 is an underperformer whose very existence should be reviewed. The lesson from this is that great success is possible with ten minute or better headways but if you can't do this then it's hardly worth starting a new shuttle. Instead it would be better to revamp other routes in the area.  

One more - the 202!

Anyway we're getting another university shuttle. You'd think the timing was unusual given that universities are moving to more online learning with COVID accelerating this. Not to mention the fall-off in overseas students who are big users of university shuttles.

But there is a reason for this. 

Current processes mean it takes years to set up a new bus route in Melbourne. In fact about as long as a large works project like removing a level crossing. This is because bus network reform is like a one-off cottage industry while level crossing removals is a mass project overseen by a dedicated authority.  

Hence what's being implemented now, in late 2021, is largely (but not entirely) the result of planning work and funding decisions from 2018. Examples include the upcoming Night Network bus reform, a new Keysborough South bus and .... today's topic .... the Parkville - Victoria Park bus shuttle. 

Outsiders were reminded of the Parkville - Victoria Park shuttle in this minister's release from Tuesday August 31, 2021. It described two new routes and several bus service upgrades.  The release said this:

Starting 20 September, the new Route 202 bus service will run every 10 minutes between Yarra Bend to the university and Parkville’s medical and research precinct, allowing people to board from Victoria Park Station.

The release went on to say:

Updated timetables are now available at ptv.vic.gov.au or on the PTV app.

They jumped the gun a little here. PTV's online timetables are normally updated weekly on Fridays. Hence you should be able to find details like exact operating hours online sometime today. 

The Department has other channels of communication apart from the PTV website. The main ones are written news items and maps. Information release is not necessarily synchronised. For instance one eagle-eyed watcher found a (then) mysterious Route 202 appear on a map that was viewable at least one day before the minister's release. 

That map is here:

Parkville to Victoria Park wasn't just any bus route. Unusual for an individual route it was specifically recommended by Infrastructure Victoria in 2018 as something that should be introduced quickly to reduce congestion. More recently, its profile was revived as part of Action 3 in Victoria's Bus Plan. 

A few questions will be clarified by the timetable. 

For example the number of stops. Shuttles like the 301, 401 and 601 only have stops near the ends of the route. Whereas the 202 passes through a much finer grained catchment with several north-south tram routes. The release says: 

The high-frequency shuttle bus will also pick up passengers from stops connecting with the 11, 86 and 96 tram routes, providing a more efficient and comfortable way for students and workers to reach the precinct. It will also eliminate the need for people commuting from Melbourne’s northern and north-eastern suburbs to travel into the CBD to get to the university or Parkville-bound services.

As the parallel Nicholson St (Tram 96) and Brunswick St (Tram 11) are so close one might think a stop in between would suffice. However the existing 200 / 207 have stops west of Nicholson and east of Brunswick so aren't quite a 'best fit' for a single stop. There is however a stop near Smith St which will be convenient for the 86. Stops here could be handy for a lot of shorter distance trips involving bus/train/tram transfers. This could make the 202 more versatile than other university routes. 

The location of the eastern terminus will also get people wondering. The mapped route may be so long as places to turn buses around are scarce in the area. It will be interesting to see whether there is a  stop on Studley Park Rd or whether a spot near Victoria Park Station will be the easternmost stop. 

Thirdly there's operating hours and days. I'll guess 5 days, like the other shuttle routes. However as the catchment serves more than just Melbourne University service might continue on university holidays (at the same 10 minute frequency) as well. That's my guess anyway. 

Is 202 still good value or does it present an opportunity cost?

The most obvious thing from the map is that the 202 almost completely overlaps the 200/207 pair. This is a popular all-stops service operating at a 10 minute combined frequency interpeak. It also enjoys long operating hours. Pre-COVID the 200 and 207 got crowded. Reliability also suffered. 

I am in two minds about the merits of the new 202 as opposed to boosting frequency on the existing routes. But one can see why. 202 could relieve some of the crowding pressure on 200/207, making these perform better. Being a shorter route the 202 should be more reliable. Also, as a single route operating more frequently it might be easier to communicate and market. The express nature of 202 is another selling point.

This formula has worked for other university shuttle routes such as the 301 and 601 despite these also overlapping other routes. However continued success partly depends on what universities do post-COVID. However that's not everything due to the hospitals in the area. 202's benefits are also heightened by the unidirectional City Loop which makes some trips from the Clifton Hill group quite long, so give an opportunity for the bus to be useful. The 202 could become even more useful when the Metro Tunnel opens since it could enable a connection from the Clifton Hill group to Footscray with a change at Parkville Station. 

The 202 does sound good but does it carry an opportunity cost?

Let's guess it costs a couple of million dollars per year to run. Let's also assume that the other new route announced, the 816 between Noble Park and Keysborough, requires half a million. The resultant $2.5 million per year (approximate) should permit wholesale bus network reform in the Springvale, Noble Park, Keysborough and Dandenong areas including a doubling or even tripling of service on straightened and simplified key routes from every 60 to every 20 or 30 minutes. This should be beneficial given the area attracts high usage even on current infrequent routes.  

Unlike inner suburbs, the people in this generally low income area are more likely to have jobs that lack work from home options. Hence their relative need for better buses may be higher. Some ideas on reformed Greater Dandenong bus networks are here , here and here. Comparing the patronage potential and social benefits of both options would be an interesting exercise that I'll leave to you. 

Conclusion

What do you think about the 202? Will it bring a new way of moving around Melbourne's inner-north that balances the 401 west of Melbourne Uni? Is it a worthwhile network addition or would you prefer alternatives like improved 200 and 207's frequencies? Or is a separate express route the best way to provide a premium frequent circumferential connection needed in the area? Maybe there's options elsewhere that better suit post-COVID travel patterns? Comments are invited and can be left below. 

See other Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here