I covered this in detail for a new bus route overlaid over an existing network (UN 83). The answer was about 2 years from budget funding. Add to that the pre-budget preparatory work required it's more like 3 years.
It seems extraordinary but it takes Melbourne about the same time to add a modest bus route as it does to remove a road/rail level crossing. This is largely as there's a big political will to do a lot of the latter but not much of the former. It's as simple as that.
Not all bus reforms take the same time. Just adding frequency to existing routes takes a shorter time, especially if the peak bus requirement remains unchanged. Conversely network reforms involving public engagement may take longer, especially if important stakeholders (including, at times, bus operators who may not be fully on-board).
Here's examples of recent or soon to be implemented bus network reforms in Melbourne and how long they have taken from budget funding to implementation. This could be useful for governments wishing to devise time-lines working back from the 2026 state election. That's doubly important given that Tuesday's state budget had so little for new or reformed bus services.
TL;DR version: Get a move on - you've almost run out of time!
12 months
A year following funding is enough to do significant off-peak timetable upgrades on a bus route. It's simple as there's no consultation needed nor changes to routes or stops. However you will need new drivers and some extra maintenance resources given the increase in bus operating hours.
An example is the 733 and 767 service upgrades which got funded in the May 2022 budget and implemented at the end of April 2023.
More here and here.
An example is the 733 and 767 service upgrades which got funded in the May 2022 budget and implemented at the end of April 2023.
More here and here.
18 months
This lead-time after funding will allow some small network reforms that involve minimal consultation. Or a rerouting of a major route provided it's not too big and stops largely already exist.
An example, again funded in the May 2022 budget, is the consolidation of routes 768 and 201 to create a single frequent Box Hill - Deakin express shuttle. Also in the Deakin area is the rerouting of the 4 hour long 903 orbital to serve the campus. Both these changes are expected to commence 'later this year' so about an 18 month lead time.
Also funded in May 2022 was the Greensborough FlexiRide which (commendably) will include reform to the ends of indirect or duplicative local routes including 514 and 517. The stated start time is late 2023, giving an 18 month lead time. However no one we know of has yet seen the consultation report, which was supposed to have been out in April 2023, so I won't be surprised if there's some slippage.
2 years
You can allow two years (after budget funding) for a modest new bus route that's layered over an existing unchanged network like the 627 between Chadstone and Moorabbin. Or one that's created out of some network reforms like the 469 between Keilor East and Essendon.
You'll find a lot more detail about the steps (and how long each takes) in getting a new bus route in the 627 item linked above.
2.5 years
It sounds a long time but it's true in the case of the much needed Healesville area bus network reform. A rough time-line is below:
* 2020/2021?: DoT/DTP drafts proposal for budget
* May 2021: Funding announced in state budget
* March 2022: Public consultation on proposed network
* April 2023: Public advised of outcome
* Late 2023: New network commences
This was a small bus network reform involving 4 routes. But it involved significant consultation and some public disquiet. The bus operator, who the taxpayer subsidises to run the service, wasn't entirely on-board either.
Note that the lead times quoted are publicly visible times - from budget to implementation. A line in the budget doesn't just pop up from nowhere - there's a significant business case or proposal from the department to be done beforehand with its own internal processes. The public doesn't know about this preparatory work. That could add a year or so to the above figures.
This has political implications given the 4 year election cycle. The long lag times means that if you want anything big with bus reform implemented before the next election then a newly elected government needs to start work straight away. Otherwise, with existing time-lines, it won't happen.
The need for immediacy could clash with the budgetary cycle where generally the first budget after an election can be quite tough. This is not even considering the current phase of the economic cycle where a combination of high borrowings (notably for big infrastructure) and rising interest payments is pressure on the state's finances and thus its willingness to fund transport service improvements despite their transformative benefits.
To summarise, a government that really wants bus (and other transport service) reform needs to look at ways of streamlining implementation through process reform and capability enlargement in the DTP.
There will always be certain limits, such as the ability to get new buses delivered and recruit operator staff, that may not be so easy to overcome. However some of the above times do appear excessive and a transport reform-minded government should look at how delivery can be improved by looking at its own processes first.
Further reading: Recent state budgets and when funded upgrades happened
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